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      Harris lidera en el promedio de encuestas en Pensilvania y empata a nivel nacional

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      Aunque este escenario inesperado podría reflejar una variación usual en los resultados de las encuestas, también podría señalar una ventaja cada vez menor de Trump en el Colegio Electoral.Kamala Harris lidera por cuatro puntos en nuestro nuevo sondeo de Pensilvania.Kenny Holston/The New York Times[Estamos en WhatsApp. Empieza a seguirnos ahora]Tenemos nuestras dos primeras encuestas desde el debate presidencial de la semana pasada: una a nivel nacional y otra sobre Pensilvania.Combinadas, son un pequeño enigma.En la encuesta nacional, Kamala Harris y Donald Trump están empatados entre los votantes probables, ambos con un 47 por ciento, un ligero avance para Harris desde nuestra encuesta nacional más reciente, realizada inmediatamente antes del debate.Al mismo tiempo, Harris tenía una ventaja de cuatro puntos en una encuesta de The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College de Pensilvania, 50 por ciento a 46 por ciento.Antes de entrar en detalles, empecemos por el panorama general:No ha cambiado mucho tras el debate. A pesar de su buena actuación, la vicepresidenta Harris no ganó mucho terreno en comparación con nuestras encuestas más recientes a nivel nacional y en Pensilvania. La encuesta está llena de señales de que nuestros encuestados pensaron que Harris tuvo un buen debate —y que Trump uno malo— pero no ha hecho una gran diferencia, al menos por ahora y al menos en nuestro sondeo.Pensilvania, Pensilvania, Pensilvania. Es posible que Harris no haya ganado mucho, pero su campaña seguramente estará contenta con las cifras en Pensilvania. El resultado nacional, por otra parte, es bastante favorable para Trump (esa es la parte que nos desconcierta y que estamos a punto de analizar). Pero nuestras elecciones se deciden en el Colegio Electoral, y ningún estado tiene un lugar más relevante en las matemáticas electorales que Pensilvania.Ahora vayamos a nuestro enigma: ¿una clara ventaja para Harris en Pensilvania, pero un empate a nivel nacional? Esto es inesperado. Hace cuatro años, el presidente Joe Biden ganó el voto nacional por 4,5 puntos porcentuales, pero ganó Pensilvania por solo 1,2 puntos. Del mismo modo, nuestros promedios de encuestas han mostrado que Harris obtiene mejores resultados a nivel nacional que en Pensilvania. Esta encuesta es casi lo contrario.Por lo general diría que se trata de ruido estadístico, la inevitable variación en los resultados de las encuestas que es inherente al muestreo aleatorio. Y puede que lo sea, como veremos. Pero creo que es difícil suponer que se trata simplemente de ruido, por dos razones:Es lo que hemos señalado antes. Es fácil descartar cualquier resultado de una encuesta como una casualidad estadística. Pero hemos encontrado resultados similares en nuestras dos encuestas más recientes a nivel nacional y en Pensilvania.Esto se está convirtiendo en una tendencia para los encuestadores de alta calidad. Sí, el promedio de nuestras encuestas revela que Harris obtiene mejores resultados a nivel nacional que en Pensilvania, pero la historia es un poco diferente si nos centramos solo en las encuestas de mayor calidad (a las que llamamos “encuestadoras selectas” en nuestra tabla). En el último mes, muchos de estos sondeos muestran que a Harris le va relativamente mal a nivel nacional, pero le va bien en los estados disputados del norte de Estados Unidos.Nota sobre los encuestadores “selectos”: para ser considerados selectos en nuestro promedio de encuestas, los encuestadores deben cumplir dos de los tres criterios siguientes: un historial de resultados superiores a los de otros encuestadores, una metodología transparente y el uso de un método que tenga posibilidades de llegar a la mayoría o a todos los votantes potenciales. No se trata de un enfoque perfecto (omite algunas encuestas muy buenas e incluye otras que no lo son tanto), pero incluye a la mayoría de los pesos pesados del sector y elimina gran parte de lo que no funciona. More

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      Harris advierte de deportaciones masivas y campos de detención si Trump es elegido

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      La vicepresidenta Kamala Harris intenta conseguir apoyo entre los votantes latinos, ya que las encuestas muestran que los estadounidenses confían en el expresidente Donald Trump por encima de los demócratas en la frontera.La vicepresidenta Kamala Harris advirtió sobre deportaciones masivas y “campos de detención masivos” si Donald Trump regresaba al poder, y dijo en una audiencia de líderes hispanos en Washington que la agenda migratoria del expresidente era un peligro para el país.“Todos recordamos lo que hicieron para separar a las familias”, dijo Harris el miércoles en un evento del Caucus Hispano del Congreso, que forma parte de un esfuerzo para aumentar el apoyo entre los votantes latinos. “Y ahora han prometido llevar a cabo la mayor deportación, una deportación masiva, en la historia de Estados Unidos”.La multitud pasó de la jovialidad al silencio cuando la vicepresidenta les pidió que profundizaran en las propuestas de Trump, que incluyen planes para acorralar a los indocumentados a escala masiva y detenerlos en campamentos a la espera de su deportación.“Imaginen cómo se vería eso y cómo sería”, dijo Harris. “¿Cómo va a ocurrir? ¿Redadas masivas? ¿Campos de detención masivos? ¿De qué están hablando?”.Harris combinó el ataque a la agenda de Trump con promesas de priorizar la seguridad en la frontera y proporcionar un “camino ganado a la ciudadanía”. La vicepresidenta ha buscado un acto de equilibrio ya que las encuestas han demostrado que algunos votantes latinos confían en Trump más que en los demócratas en cuanto a la frontera.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Vance Says He Will Keep Calling Haitian Immigrants ‘Illegal Aliens’

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      Senator JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, said on Wednesday that he would continue to describe Haitian residents in Springfield, Ohio, as “illegal aliens” even though most of them are in the country legally.The immigrants are mainly in the United States under a program called temporary protected status, which the executive branch can grant to people whose home countries are in crisis. Mr. Vance claimed falsely that this program was illegal.“If Kamala Harris waves the wand illegally and says these people are now here legally, I’m still going to call them an illegal alien,” he said in response to a reporter’s question after a rally in Raleigh, N.C. “An illegal action from Kamala Harris does not make an alien legal.”Congress created the temporary protected status program in 1990 and presidents from both major parties have used it in response to wars, natural disasters and other humanitarian crises in various countries. The program allows people from countries designated by the Department of Homeland Security to live and work legally in the United States for 18 months, a period that the department can renew indefinitely. It does not include a path to permanent residency or citizenship.The Obama administration granted the temporary protected status to Haitians living in the United States illegally after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake devastated Haiti in January 2010. Under President Biden, the Department of Homeland Security has granted or renewed temporary protected status to immigrants from a number of countries, including Haiti, Ukraine and Venezuela. Ms. Harris did not make those decisions.Former President Donald J. Trump has long criticized the program. His administration sought to end protections for people from El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua and Sudan, though some of those decisions were challenged in court, and Mr. Biden reversed some.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Pete Buttigieg Plays Vance in Walz’s Debate Prep

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      Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is intensifying his preparations for the vice-presidential debate on Oct. 1, with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg serving as a stand-in for his opponent, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, according to five people with direct knowledge of the preparations, who insisted on anonymity to discuss the private efforts.Mr. Buttigieg, one of the Democratic Party’s most skilled communicators and a fixture on Fox News, played a similar role for Kamala Harris in 2020, acting as Vice President Mike Pence in her mock debate sessions. Mr. Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., is now trying to channel another fellow Midwesterner in Mr. Vance.Mr. Walz’s debate prep is being run by two campaign advisers, Rob Friedlander and Zayn Siddique, according to multiple people with knowledge of the process. Others who are involved include Chris Schmitter, a longtime Walz aide who has worked with the governor for nearly two decades; Liz Allen, Mr. Walz’s campaign chief of staff; and Michael Tyler, the Harris campaign’s communications director, the people said.Mr. Buttigieg has won acclaim from Democrats for his deft performances on Fox News, parrying hosts and delivering the administration’s message behind enemy lines. He had been helping Mr. Walz’s debate team via video conference, but joined the preparations in-person on Wednesday in Minneapolis. So far the sessions have been informal — no lights, stage sets or dress rehearsals — but Mr. Walz is expected to do a more intensive debate camp before the matchup in New York City.Mr. Buttigieg has clearly watched Mr. Vance closely. Asked on MSNBC in late July what he would like to debate Mr. Vance about, Mr. Buttigieg quipped, “Where do you start?”“They selected somebody who has really reminded so many Americans of why they are off-put by the turn that the Republican Party has taken in the last few years,” he said. “What I would most want to see in that debate, whoever is at the table with him, is getting into that relationship between the strange worldview and a strange set of policies.”The Washington Post earlier reported on Mr. Buttigieg’s role in the debate preparations.Mr. Walz, a Nebraska native who leans into his down-home persona on the campaign trail, has begun to set debate expectations, noting that Mr. Vance is a “Yale Law guy” whom he expects will be well-prepared.“I believe in America, I believe in the middle class and I’m making sure that I have all those facts to back that up,” Mr. Walz told Spectrum News in Wisconsin on Saturday.A representative for Mr. Vance did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the role that the Harvard-educated Mr. Buttigieg is playing, or on the debate more broadly.The officials who described Mr. Walz’s debate preparations and Mr. Buttigieg’s involvement said the transportation secretary’s assistance was coming in his personal capacity, as have so many of his appearances aiding the Democratic presidential ticket. More

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      Iran Hackers Sought to Send Stolen Trump Campaign Information to Biden Camp

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      The emails were part of a sweeping effort by Iran to steal and disseminate sensitive internal communications between aides working for former President Donald J. Trump.Iranian hackers seeking to influence the 2024 election sent excerpts from pilfered Trump campaign documents to people associated with President Biden’s re-election campaign this summer, but the recipients did not respond, law enforcement officials said on Wednesday.The emails, sent in late June and early July, were part of a sweeping effort by Iran to steal and disseminate sensitive internal communications between aides working for former President Donald J. Trump after it gained access to the email accounts of a longtime political adviser, Roger J. Stone.“Iranian malicious cyberactors” sent unsolicited emails that contained “an excerpt taken from stolen, nonpublic material from former President Trump’s campaign,” officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the F.B.I. and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency wrote in a joint statement.The intended recipients, who were not identified in the statement, did not appear to have replied. Even as federal officials have suggested that the hackers also targeted the Biden and Harris campaigns, they believe that the emails including the stolen Trump material were sent to be disseminated to his political enemies.“This is further proof the Iranians are actively interfering in the election to help Kamala Harris and Joe Biden because they know President Trump will restore his tough sanctions and stand against their reign of terror,” said Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign.A spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, Morgan Finkelstein, noted that a few people were “targeted on their personal emails with what looked like a spam or phishing attempt,” though she added that she was not aware that any material had been sent to campaign accounts.“We have cooperated with the appropriate law enforcement authorities since we were made aware that individuals associated with the then-Biden campaign were among the intended victims of this foreign influence operation,” she added.The Justice Department’s national security division has been investigating the Stone attack and could charge some of those responsible as early as this week, according to several officials familiar with the situation.In a speech last week, the senior Justice Department official responsible for investigating overseas election interference and the head of the department’s national security division, Matthew G. Olsen, accused Russia of seeking to undermine Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to bolster Mr. Trump’s re-election chances.He also cited Iran’s recent hacking of the Trump campaign as evidence that some adversaries were also seeking to damage Mr. Trump’s chances of victory.In August, the Justice Department indicted a Pakistani citizen with ties to Iran for plotting assassination attempts against top political figures, including the former president. More

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      El posible segundo atentado contra Trump genera alarma en el extranjero

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      Existe la preocupación generalizada de que las elecciones de noviembre no acaben bien y de que la democracia estadounidense haya llegado a un punto crítico.[Estamos en WhatsApp. Empieza a seguirnos ahora]En los nueve años transcurridos desde que Donald Trump entró en la política estadounidense, la percepción global de Estados Unidos se ha visto sacudida por la imagen de una nación fracturada e impredecible. Primero un atentado contra la vida del expresidente, y ahora un segundo posible atentado, han acentuado la preocupación internacional, suscitando temores de una agitación violenta que podría desembocar en una guerra civil.Keir Starmer, el primer ministro británico, ha dicho que está “muy preocupado” y “profundamente perturbado” por lo que, según el FBI, fue un intento de asesinar a Trump en su campo de golf de Florida, a menos de 50 días de las elecciones presidenciales y dos meses después de que una bala ensangrentó la oreja de Trump durante un mitin de campaña en Pensilvania.“La violencia no tiene cabida alguna en un proceso político”, afirmó Starmer.Sin embargo, la violencia ha tenido un lugar preponderante en esta tormentosa y tambaleante campaña política estadounidense, y no solo en los dos posibles intentos de asesinato. Ahora existe una preocupación generalizada en todo el mundo de que las elecciones de noviembre no acaben bien y de que la democracia estadounidense, que solía ser un modelo para el mundo, haya llegado a un punto crítico.En México, donde este año se celebraron las elecciones más violentas de la historia reciente del país, con 41 candidatos y aspirantes a cargos públicos asesinados, el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador dijo en una publicación en la plataforma social X: “Aun cuando todavía no se conoce bien lo sucedido, lamentamos la violencia producida en contra del expresidente Donald Trump. El camino es la democracia y la paz”.En un momento de guerras en Europa y el Medio Oriente y de inseguridad global generalizada mientras China y Rusia afirman la superioridad de sus modelos autócratas, la precariedad estadounidense pesa bastante.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Sarah Huckabee Sanders Jabs at Harris for Not Having Biological Children

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      Introducing former President Donald J. Trump at a town-hall event in Michigan on Tuesday, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas extolled the virtue of humility in politics with an amusing story: She once teared up while watching her daughter get ready for a father-daughter dance, and her daughter said, “It’s OK, Mommy, one day you can be pretty too.”“So my kids keep me humble,” Ms. Sanders said. Then, mispronouncing Vice President Kamala Harris’s name, she added, “Unfortunately, Kamala Harris doesn’t have anything keeping her humble.”The comment was widely interpreted as a reference to Ms. Harris not having biological children; she has two stepchildren. Coming from a surrogate for a campaign whose vice-presidential nominee, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, has been criticized for his past description of Democratic leadership as “childless cat ladies,” Ms. Sanders’s remark quickly prompted bipartisan backlash, including from Bryan Lanza, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign.Mr. Lanza said on CNN that the remark was “actually offensive” and that he was “disappointed in Sarah.”Several Democratic-aligned groups highlighted the remark on social media, including the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, Young Democrats of America and Republican Voters Against Trump. So did TV commentators.“Whoa,” Mika Brzezinski said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday. “What is their obsession with women without children of their biological connection?” A spokeswoman for Ms. Sanders did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Neither did Ms. Harris’s campaign.Kerstin Emhoff — the ex-wife of Ms. Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, and the mother of Ms. Harris’s stepchildren — defended Ms. Harris.“Cole and Ella keep us inspired to make the world a better place,” she said in a social media post, referring to her children. “I do it through storytelling. Kamala Harris has spent her entire career working for the people, ALL families. That keeps you pretty humble.”Mr. Vance has raised eyebrows on the matter of parenting before. In 2021, he said that perhaps parents “should have more of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic than people who don’t have kids,” a suggestion that he later said was a “thought experiment” and not serious.He has also said he wasn’t disparaging women without children, while doubling down on describing Democrats as “anti-family.”His “childless cat ladies” remark has become something of a cultural phenomenon among supporters of Ms. Harris. In one sign of its continuing resonance, Taylor Swift used it to sign off her endorsement of Ms. Harris last week. More

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      Trump Makes Big Promises, With Little Detail, for Michigan’s Auto Industry

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      Two days after an apparent assassination attempt against him, former President Donald J. Trump showed few signs on Tuesday that he would shake up his approach to campaigning.At a town hall in Flint, Mich., for his first campaign event since the Sunday incident, he made grand promises to restore auto-making jobs to the state, the heart of the American auto industry, as he gave long-winded, often meandering responses to only a few questions.To the extent that Mr. Trump was focused, it was on repeatedly vowing that his tariffs would revitalize the auto industry in Michigan, a crucial battleground state, and that a Trump loss in November would be catastrophic — referring to such an outcome as a “tragedy.”Using the dire language he often uses to frame this election, he said if “we don’t win, there will be zero car jobs, manufacturing jobs.”“It will all be out of here,” he said.Speaking to thousands of supporters in the Dort Financial Arena in Flint, he also insisted vaguely that his tariff proposals would be enough to reverse a decades-long decline in the American auto industry and bring “so many auto plants” into the state if elected.Trump supporters outside the arena in Flint where Mr. Trump spoke.Doug Mills/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More