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      20/20 Foresight

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      We’re covering the strategic risks that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are taking.Once an election is over, hindsight can make the winner’s strategy look perfect and the loser’s seem doomed. As my colleague Jonathan Swan said recently on “The Daily”: “The winning campaign, everything they did was genius, and then the losing campaign are just a bunch of idiots. And the truth is that neither is necessarily true.”The truth instead tends to be that presidential campaigns make strategic decisions that come with benefits as well as costs. And those decisions aren’t guaranteed to succeed or fail.In today’s newsletter, I’ll analyze a core strategy that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have each pursued. After Tuesday, I suspect we will come to see both as crucial, albeit in different ways.Harris’s cautionOn paper, Harris is the underdog. In rich countries around the world, incumbents are doing badly; the ruling parties in Australia, Britain, Germany, Italy and Japan have all recently lost power. In the U.S., President Biden has a 40 percent approval rating, and less than 30 percent of adults are satisfied with the country’s direction.Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, points out that voters appear eager for change and specifically seem skeptical of progressivism. (I recommend his essay on the subject.)Given this backdrop, Harris has run a strikingly cautious campaign. Game theorists would describe it as a low-variance strategy. She and her aides avoided moves that might have gone very well — and might have gone very poorly.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Where Do Nikki Haley Voters Turn?

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      For Kamala Harris to win, are there enough Nikki Haley voters and other disaffected Republicans who will vote for her or sit this one out?It’s kind of incredible that it might all come down to this group. The Haley voter obviously isn’t the whole story of the election; there are all kinds of voters moving in and out of the edges of the two parties now, from the people red-pilled by the Covid era to those voting first on Israel and Gaza. But if Donald Trump loses again, maybe it will be due to the same problem that has been there for him from the beginning — the Republicans who didn’t like him in the first place, those in the suburbs, the more moderate women.Under the category of the Haley voter there are stability-minded, Constitution-focused traditionalists who can’t really get past Jan. 6, temperamental moderates who care about character and dislike chaos, for whom Mr. Trump has always been a tough sell, and — probably these people more than anything — just the kinds of voters, women especially, who voted a lot for Republicans before but on some deep, cellular level blanch at government now deciding abortion policy and the broader health complications that can be involved, regardless of how they feel about abortion itself.Those voters, in particular, might be described as having a conservatism organized around privacy and intentions, specifically not trusting the government in a world where Texas passes a law that allows a neighbor to sue another for abetting an abortion or a politician can’t seem to understand why a 50-something woman would still care about reproductive rights.What does some data tell us about Haley voters? In one of its weekly releases, Blueprint, a Democratic strategy firm, profiled the Haley voter based on a survey of nearly 800 Republicans and independents who voted for her in the primaries. It’s a small but notable group of people, with 59 percent who said they voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 but only 45 percent who said they would do so again in 2024. That slice of voters could decide a narrow election, and that’s not even taking into account the need for Ms. Harris to retain the Republicans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 or the ones who are similarly inclined but didn’t bother voting in the Republican primaries this year.Blueprint found that one of the “most persuasive” criticisms of the Republican Party for this group of voters was that it “opposes abortion too much” (with 42 percent saying that described the party “very well”). They cared about the economy, immigration and national security; they were worried that Ms. Harris would be too extreme and Mr. Trump too erratic. In Blueprint’s polling, Haley voters had a lot of remaining favor for George W. Bush and John McCain and liked Dick Cheney more than Liz Cheney, whose support was underwater with the group.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Women Are Dying in Post-Roe America, and Your Vote Matters

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      Over 20 years ago, I had an experience that will be familiar to many women. I had a series of miscarriages, including one for which I needed a medical procedure to protect me from infection — which is to say, to protect me from possible death.If the circumstances had been just slightly different, and if Roe v. Wade had not been the law of the land then, I could have died. Or more specifically, I could have been allowed to die by doctors who refused to intervene for fear of prosecution and imprisonment. I grew up in Tennessee, where almost all abortions are banned now. And when you ban abortion, you don’t just affect women seeking abortions — you make so much basic reproductive medical care riskier than it should be.My story was both wrenching for my family and also commonplace. These things happen to women’s bodies, requiring routine health care. All of it has become politicized — and much more dangerous as a result. I fear that under a Trump presidency the situation will get much worse.It was February 2002 when my unborn daughter’s heart stopped beating. I was almost 29 weeks pregnant, with a 2-year-old son at home. At the hospital, the doctor gave me and my husband two options. I could be induced, go home and wait for my water to break and deliver naturally, or I could have an immediate cesarean section.My husband and I were beyond distraught and trusted our doctor to help us make the right decision. She told us that if we waited the risk of infection would grow, and might affect my ability to have children in the future or even endanger my life. We knew the best option both medically and emotionally was surgery. An hour or so later, we held our precious daughter Graça for the first and last time. A couple of days later I was able to return home to our son, to recover and to grieve our loss.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      At Women’s March in Washington, Hope That They Will Hold Off Trump

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      Nearly eight years after the first Women’s March in Washington demonstrated a furious backlash to the election of Donald J. Trump, thousands of women gathered again in the capital and across the country on Saturday, this time with the hope that Vice President Kamala Harris would triumph at the polls and prevent his return to the White House.The rally and march, taking place three days before the election, was much smaller than the original in 2017 that drew at least 470,000 people — three times the number of people who had attended Mr. Trump’s inauguration the day before. But the mood was far more optimistic, if also somewhat combative.The rally at Freedom Plaza was primarily focused on threats to women’s reproductive rights and other liberties.Cheriss May for The New York Times“We will not go back!” was the rallying cry on Saturday, echoing what has become a signature line for Ms. Harris on the campaign trail. While the march was primarily focused on threats to women’s reproductive rights and other liberties, speakers and signs expressed support for a wide array of Democratic and progressive policy positions. Those included gun control, transgender rights and support for Palestinians. The speakers also urged people to vote, and to take others to vote, although many people in the crowd said they had already cast a ballot for Ms. Harris.“I just hope that all these people — not just women, but men — convince a few people to vote and vote the way we want them. Vote for democracy and our rights, reproductive rights,” said Janice Wolbrink, 69.Ms. Wolbrink was joined by her two sisters, each carrying a bright pink sign that read, “Now you’ve pissed-off Grandma.” Together, the three of them had 24 grandchildren.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Kamala Harris Will Make Surprise Appearance on ‘Saturday Night Live’ Tonight

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      Vice President Kamala Harris will make a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” according to two people familiar with the plan, appearing on a live sketch-comedy show in the final days of the election as she tries to reach voters on a national platform with widespread cultural currency.With just three days left in a contest against former President Donald J. Trump that is essentially tied, Ms. Harris is looking for any possible advantage — including, perhaps, showing the country that she can take a joke. She spent Saturday campaigning in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina and was expected to fly to Michigan when Air Force Two diverted without notice to New York City.One of the most popular recurring features on “Saturday Night Live” is having actors portray presidents and presidential candidates. The comedian Maya Rudolph has played Ms. Harris to much acclaim. Even the vice president has praised her impression. “She’s so good,” Ms. Harris said last month on the ABC talk show “The View,” adding, “She had the whole thing — the suit, the jewelry, everything.”Appearing on live television is a gamble for a presidential candidate, or any celebrity without acting experience, but previous contenders have rolled the dice, including Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2015 and Barack Obama in 2007. (Mrs. Clinton also appeared in 2008.) Few have done so in the waning days of a campaign.In 2015, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton both joined the show during their parties’ primary races. While some politicians make brief cameos, Mr. Trump — who, as the former host of “The Apprentice,” has significant show-business experience — hosted an entire episode, although the sketches were tame and not seen as particularly hilarious.Mrs. Clinton appeared in a single sketch, as a bartender serving the version of herself played by the actress Kate McKinnon, and poked gentle — but toothless — fun at herself.“Saturday Night Live” airs on NBC at 11:30 p.m.Michael Levenson More

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      Trump and Harris Focus on Economy as They Campaign in Southern States

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      The candidates outlined vastly different messages in Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, with Donald J. Trump exaggerating how bad the recent jobs report was and Kamala Harris promising to bring down costs.Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump swept through Southern states on Saturday, outlining sharply divergent economic messages for voters in top battlegrounds and, in Mr. Trump’s case, solidly blue Virginia.Mr. Trump, after a week in which controversies often overshadowed his closing argument, traveled to North Carolina and Virginia, where he gave rambling speeches in which he tried to turn the race back toward immigration, the economy and transgender issues.Ms. Harris began her day at a rally in Atlanta, where she focused on her plans to bolster the economy, an approach that her advisers say has been intentional in the last days of a coin-flip race.At an event that featured food trucks and a performance by the Georgia-born rapper 2 Chainz, she said her first goal as president would be “to bring down the cost of living for you” through tax cuts and measures like expanding Medicare to help cover home care. She emphasized that message soon after at a rally in Charlotte, N.C., saying that Mr. Trump would fight for “billionaires and big corporations.”Mr. Trump, in his speeches at an airport in Gastonia, N.C. and an arena in Salem, Va., pounced on Friday’s labor report showing that employers added just 12,000 jobs last month.“These are depression numbers, I hate to tell you,” he said in Gastonia, wildly distorting the picture of what is actually a healthy economy and leaving out that the latest figures were driven down by hurricanes and a labor strike.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Returns to His Home Turf to Make Final Pitches for Harris

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      Though President Biden has made verbal gaffes on the campaign trail, the Harris campaign still considers him an asset in blue-collar communities like Scranton, Pa.In Scranton, Pa., it’s as though President Biden never left.In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Mr. Biden has been cast in the shadow of Vice President Kamala Harris amid concerns that his unpopularity could be a liability in her race against former President Donald J. Trump. But as he rallied union members in his hometown on Saturday during one of his last campaign events in office, Mr. Biden was in one of the few places Democrats feel he can still help Ms. Harris on the campaign trail.“When he comes into this town, he is the top of the ticket,” said Sam Kuchwara, a 70-year-old retiree and veteran who is a native of Scranton. “He’s definitely more popular here than Harris.”Scranton is certainly the exception in that respect. Mr. Biden rattled Democrats this week when he appeared to call supporters of Mr. Trump “garbage” while denouncing racist comments made by a comedian at a Trump rally. Even though Mr. Biden later explained that he had meant that the comedian’s “hateful rhetoric” was garbage, Ms. Harris had to spend time on the campaign trail distancing herself from the comment.Ms. Harris’s rallies are far more enthusiastic and energetic than Mr. Biden’s, with crowds of thousands dwarfing those at his events. But Harris campaign officials believe that the incumbent president can still provide a key benefit to Ms. Harris by rallying working-class white voters and union members in battleground states.Enter Scranton Joe.“Scranton becomes part of your heart,” Mr. Biden said to union members cramped inside a carpenter’s union hall. “It crawls into your heart. It’s real.”Mr. Biden used the speech to argue that Mr. Trump would repeal much of his domestic agenda if he beat Ms. Harris, including efforts to invest in unions. He said that even those in the crowd who disagreed with Ms. Harris should vote for her if they wanted to keep aspects of his agenda.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Uncertainty Reigns in Nevada With Rise of Nonpartisan Voters

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      With early voting coming to a close, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must now ensure their respective bases show up on Election Day, while chasing down those whose choice is less clear.As early voting came to a close in Nevada, many of the state’s most veteran pollsters, pundits and political operatives — no strangers to close elections and their accompanying jitters — are finding it uniquely difficult to predict what happens next.Republicans, thrilled with their surprise early voting edge, say they are well on their way to making former President Donald J. Trump the first Republican to win the state since 2004. Democrats agree that Republicans have seized an unusual and anxiety-inducing advantage, but insist that their prized organizing machine will put Vice President Kamala Harris over the top.But what’s making this presidential election different is the sheer number of voters who don’t officially identify with either party. Thanks to the state’s relatively new automatic voter registration law, nonpartisan voters became Nevada’s largest voting bloc in 2022, outpacing both Democratic and Republican registrations.Figuring out who those voters are, and how or if they will cast a ballot, has been a crucial challenge for the campaigns scrambling to find and sway those last few persuadable people. Changes in voting patterns wrought by the pandemic four years ago are also throwing prognosticators for a loop.“The Achilles’ heel of early vote analysis is that it’s really difficult to make cycle-to-cycle comparisons,” said Adam Jentleson, who was a senior aide to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the longtime Democratic leader, “and that has never been more true than in this cycle.”All of those factors combined mean “you are flying blind,” he added.The race is tied, according to The New York Times’s polling average. Both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have visited Nevada multiple times, emphasizing that every ballot will make a difference.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More