Health

As the Omicron variant takes hold across Britain, Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford has moved to toughen social restrictions from Boxing Day, reintroducing the “rule of six” for hospitality venues and moving the country to “alert level two”.Mr Drakeford said Wales was facing a “very serious situation” as a result of the variant, with “many thousands” of new cases expected per day after Christmas.Effective from 6am on 26 December, his government will now introduce a “general requirement of two metre social distancing in all premises open to the public and workplaces, where reasonable”.Gatherings in venues such as pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theatres will be limited to six people while all licensed premises will be required to bring back table service. Face coverings will also be mandatory apart from when customers are seated.Mr Drakeford added on Wednesday that large events will not be allowed indoors or outdoors, with the maximum number of people of people who can gather at indoor event being capped at 30 and 50 outdoors.The Welsh government said it will not be making rules about mixing inside households and private gardens in small numbers, instead issuing guidance strongly advising people to “limit the number of people visiting your home” and taking lateral flow tests before visiting others.However, a separate offence will be created for large gatherings inside homes with more than 30 people or 50 people outdoors.“We are facing a very serious situation in Wales. A wave of infections caused by the new, fast-moving and very infectious omicron variant is headed our way,” the first minister said.“This new form of coronavirus could infect large numbers of people in Wales, disrupting daily lives and businesses and could cause an increase in the number of people who need hospital care in the coming weeks.“We will do everything we can to protect people’s health and livelihoods in Wales – this means taking early action to try and control its spread.”Throughout the first half of December, Wales continued to have relatively light Covid-19 guidance in place, asking the public to observe social distancing and meet outdoors when possible, wear masks in public spaces, wash hands with care and be prepared to show an NHS Covid Pass for entry to cinemas, theatres and concert halls.But that was changed on Monday 13 December when Mr Drakeford announced that all eligible adults in Wales would be offered a booster jab by the end of the year, warning his compatriots that more severe restrictions could be implemented after Christmas.After two Welsh Cabinet meetings the following Thursday, when the country’s total number of Omicron cases reached 100, it was announced that the country would move to significantly tighter measures from 27 December.In the interim, people were advised to follow a set of five steps for a “safer Christmas”, which were as follows:Get vaccinated – and make attending your booster appointment a priority.Take a lateral flow test before Christmas shopping or visiting people, and don’t go out if positive.Meeting outdoors is better than indoors. If you’re meeting indoors make sure it’s well ventilated.Space out your socialising – if you’ve got events arranged, leave at least a day between them.Don’t forget about social distancing, wearing a face covering and washing your hands.The regulations were also changed to include a requirement to work from home wherever possible.“As we know, the traditional way of doing things in Wales is people go out together and socialise in the run-up to Christmas, and then in the post-Christmas period there’s a standing back from that,” Mr Drakeford told ITV Wales.“There may be a period in the post-Christmas days when we can do more to stem the flow of the Omicron variant.”His government has since doubled its original commitment of £60m in funding to help businesses affected by the new measures, extending £120m to bail out nightclubs, retail, hospitality, leisure and tourism businesses affected by the move to alert level two.Health minister Baroness Eluned Morgan had previously warned that the devolved government was “currently not taking anything off the table” as infections rise.“The last thing we want to do is cancel Christmas. I think it is important we make that absolutely clear,” she told journalists at a briefing.“But we are not currently taking anything off the table either, so the best thing for people to do, in order to see if we can remain in a situation where we are all able to see each other over Christmas is to take precautions now, so that we don’t see the kind of increasing rates that we are all expecting.“A lot of this is in our hands, as individuals and as a community. The more you mix now, the more likely you are to contract Covid, and this particular form of Covid.”Baroness Morgan’s department is striving to hit a target of 200,000 booster vaccinations a day, with health boards again opening pop-up centres, including walk-in and drive-through clinics with longer opening hours, often partially staffed by volunteers. More

The emergence of the Omicron variant is causing concern around the world, not least because it is thought to be highly transmissible and because the 32 mutations of its spike protein suggest it might be able to resist current vaccines.The UK has recorded 14 deaths from the new variant so far and more than 60,000 confirmed cases, prompting fears that further social restrictions could soon be imposed on the British public.But prime minister Boris Johnson has confirmed that no further restrictions will be introduced before Christmas, explaining that “that people can go ahead with their plans”, a decision that allows him to avoid a repeat of his notorious address of 19 December 2020, when he reluctantly imposed tough new measures at the last minute and dashed the festive hopes of millions.However, the PM also reiterated on Tuesday that he cannot rule out further measures in the coming days, leaving open the possibility of new controls on pubs and nightclubs by New Year’s Eve.He was speaking on the same day as chancellor Rishi Sunak announced £1bn in support for the hospitality industry after customers cancelled reservations in droves in response to the latest twist in the pandemic and his counterpart in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, announced fresh restrictions on sporting events and cancelled Edinburgh’s annual Hogmanay street party, having already asked Scots to keep household mixing to a minimum.‘Rule nothing out’In his video message from Downing Street on Tuesday evening, Mr Johnson said: “We can’t rule out any further measures after Christmas – and we’re going to keep a constant eye on the data, and we’ll do whatever it takes to protect public health.”The announcement came a day after he told reporters that the government was still deciding whether or not to impose further preventative measures.He said ministers were monitoring the data “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking further action were “very, very finely balanced”.“Unfortunately I must say to people that we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public, to protect public health, to protect our NHS,” he added. “We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.”The prime minister is understood to have been waiting for more data on the variant to become available before he made a decision, a stance that saw him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.By contrast, London mayor Sadiq Khan was decisive when he declared a major incident over the extent of the outbreak in the capital while NHS England announced a return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, level four national incident, meaning that the health service’s response will be coordinated as a national effort, rather than led by individual trusts. Overall, the UK added another 90,000 infections in 24 hours on Tuesday. That compares to about 27,000 cases this time last year.Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is said to have led the call for fresh measures to drive down infection rates and ease the pressure on the NHS.Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an express train” and insisting that the government must give the public a “good, clear message” about how “serious the crisis is”.The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas has been mooted – and appears likely to be broadly popular with the public – with plans made available to ministers for consideration and apparently including a ban on meeting others indoors except for work purposes and limiting pubs and restaurants to outdoor service only. It is clear the PM hopes the takeup of booster vaccines, along with the partial “Plan B” restrictions recently introduced, will be enough to see off the threat.As part of those measures, Britons are currently again being ordered to wear face masks in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship and on public transport, to work from home order where possible.The government has further revised its approach to boosters, planning to make them available to all over-18s by the end of December and halving the amount of time between second and third injections from six months to three, all in the hope of staving off the feared “tidal wave” of infections we are already beginning to see.Some form of “Plan C” – a circuit-breaker, or tighter restrictions – could be necessary if Omicron starts to disrupt the NHS over the festive season, but there is little political appetite for any kind of fourth national lockdown, even if it were enforceable.But Sage advisers have been unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London openly entertaining the possibility for several weeks.The bigger pictureEven before Omicron began to cast its sinister shadow across the globe, many Britons were already glancing anxiously towards the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking cases of Covid-19.The World Health Organisation (WHO) had said it was “very worried” about the spread in Europe and warned 700,000 more deaths could be recorded by March unless urgent action is taken, bringing the total to 2.2 million since the pandemic began.Omicron variant shows just how ‘perilous’ Covid situation is, WHO saysPrior to the latest worrying developments sparked by Omicon, Mr Johnson’s government had been reluctant to reimpose restrictions at all, despite consistently high case numbers.While the vaccines have consistently kept death rates low since the spring, infection levels have remained consistently high, typically hovering around the 40,000-per-day mark but in recent days have been more than double that.Mr Johnson may also be concerned that further restrictons might lead to social disorder, having seen anti-lockdown protests – some of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.Londoners were certainly unhappy about the initial return of the mask mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to wear one himself at several public engagements.However, in other quarters, there appeared to be a clear appetite for new restrictions even before Omicron, at least according to the polls.A recent survey of 900 managers and 1,200 employees carried out by Hack Future Lab found 53 per cent would welcome a “festive lockdown” for the sake of their own well-being after struggling to come to terms with the return to ordinary working conditions, often finding themselves forced to take on extra tasks to cover for absent colleagues.Another poll by Savanta ComRes revealed 45 per cent of adults would be in favour of a selective lockdown targeting only those who had declined to get their Covid jabs and therefore could pose an ongoing risk to others.But, until Omicron threw a fresh spanner into the works, there was a credible case for believing that the UK was in such a strong position that it could avoid the worst of the outbreak marauding across Europe.Although Britain’s infection rate has remained high for months, it has also been highly stable until recently, lingering at a seven-day average of around 600 daily cases per million people, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have suddenly spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from well below that starting point since the beginning of October.Part of the reason for this is that the UK was hit by the more infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was therefore able to tackle them ahead of its European neighbours and unlock earlier. 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The emergence of the Omicron variant is causing concern around the world, not least because it is thought to be highly transmissible and because the 32 mutations of its spike protein suggest it might be able to resist current vaccines.The UK has recorded 12 deaths from the new variant so far and 45,145 confirmed cases, prompting fears that further social restrictions could be imposed on the British public in the final days leading up to Christmas, dashing the festive plans of millions. However, the Prime Minister has confirmed that no further restrictions will be introduced before Christmas, explaining that “that people can go ahead with their Christmas plans”.But Boris Johnson also reiterated that he cannot rule out further measures in the following days – leaving open the possibility of new controls on pubs and nightclubs by New Year’s Eve.‘Rule nothing out’He explained: “So what I can say is that naturally we can’t rule out any further measures after Christmas – and we’re going to keep a constant eye on the data, and we’ll do whatever it takes to protect public health.”The announcement comes a day after he told reporters that the Government were still deciding whether or not to impose further restrictions.He said ministers were monitoring the data “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking further action were “very, very finely balanced”.“Unfortunately I must say to people that we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public, to protect public health, to protect our NHS,” he added. “We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.”The prime minister is understood to be waiting for more data on Omicron to become available before he makes a decision, a stance that has already seen him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.London mayor Sadiq Khan has declared a major incident over the extent of the outbreak in the capital while NHS England has announced a return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, level four national incident, meaning that the health service’s response will be coordinated as a national effort, rather than led by individual trusts. Overall, the UK added another 90,000 infections in 24 hours on Tuesday, That compares to about 27,000 cases on 19 December 2020, the day Mr Johnson “cancelled” Christmas with “a very heavy heart.”Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is said to have led the call for fresh measures to drive down infection rates and ease the pressure on the NHS.Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an express train” and insisting that the government must give the public a “good, clear message” about how “serious the crisis is”.The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas has been mooted – and appears likely to be broadly popular with the public – with plans made available to ministers for consideration and apparently including a ban on meeting others indoors except for work purposes and limiting pubs and restaurants to outdoor service only. It is clear the PM hopes the takeup of booster vaccines, along with the partial “Plan B” restrictions recently introduced, will be enough to see off the threat.As part of those measures, Britons are currently again being ordered to wear face masks in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship and on public transport, to work from home order where possible.The government has further revised its approach to boosters, planning to make them available to all over-18s by the end of December and halving the amount of time between second and third injections from six months to three, all in the hope of staving off the feared “tidal wave” of infections we are already beginning to see.Some form of “Plan C” — a circuit-breaker, or tighter restrictions — could be necessary if Omicron starts to disrupt the NHS over the festive season, but there is little political appetite for any kind of fourth national lockdown, even if it were enforceable.Sage advisers have been unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London openly entertaining the possibility for several weeks.Even before Omicron began to cast its sinister shadow across the globe, many Britons were already glancing anxiously towards the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking cases of Covid-19.The World Health Organisation (WHO) had said it was “very worried” about the spread in Europe and warned 700,000 more deaths could be recorded by March unless urgent action is taken, bringing the total to 2.2 million since the pandemic began.Prior to the latest worrying developments sparked by Omicon, Mr Johnson’s government had been reluctant to reimpose restrictions at all, despite consistently high case numbers.While the vaccines have consistently kept death rates low since the spring, infection levels have remained consistently high, typically hovering around the 40,000-per-day mark but in recent days have been more than double that.Mr Johnson may also be concerned that further restrictons might lead to social disorder, having seen anti-lockdown protests – some of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.Londoners were certainly unhappy about the initial return of the mask mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to wear one himself at several public engagements.However, in other quarters, there appeared to be a clear appetite for new restrictions even before Omicron, at least according to the polls.A recent survey of 900 managers and 1,200 employees carried out by Hack Future Lab found 53 per cent would welcome a “festive lockdown” for the sake of their own well-being after struggling to come to terms with the return to ordinary working conditions, often finding themselves forced to take on extra tasks to cover for absent colleagues.Another poll by Savanta ComRes revealed 45 per cent of adults would be in favour of a selective lockdown targeting only those who had declined to get their Covid jabs and therefore could pose an ongoing risk to othersBut, until Omicron threw a fresh spanner into the works, there was a credible case for believing that the UK was in such a strong position that it could avoid the worst of the outbreak marauding across Europe.Omicron variant shows just how ‘perilous’ Covid situation is, WHO saysAlthough Britain’s infection rate has remained high for months, it has also been highly stable, lingering at a seven-day average of around 600 daily cases per million people, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have suddenly spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from well below that starting point since the beginning of October.Part of the reason for this is that the UK was hit by the more infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was therefore able to tackle them ahead of its European neighbours and unlock earlier. 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Millions of Britons are already taking precautionary measures to guard against catching Covid and having to self-isolate over the Christmas weekend as the omicron variant continues to sweep through the country, polling suggests.A majority plan to self-police in the absence of tighter restrictions by using lateral flow tests before meeting others, keeping their distance when doing so and washing their hands more frequently, according to an Ipsos Mori poll.The survey is published as debate continues to rage within the scientific community and government about whether harsher curbs than those set out in plan B are required to stop infections surging further and to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed with patients.Prime minister Boris Johnson has defied the advice of some Sage members and his cabinet to delay a decision on introducing new measures. He said current data did not justify a fresh lockdown.New data on the severity of omicron is expected imminently.YouGov’s poll, conducted between 16 and 18 December, suggests the public is waiting for ministers’ decisions to decide how they should behave in during the pandemic. It said some 89 per cent of those surveyed plan to wear their face mask more while the same proportion are alreadyor will start sanitising or washing their hands more regularly.Meahwhile, 81 per cent are keeping or plan to keep their distance while socialising, such as not hugging or shaking hands with people. Around the same proportion (80 per cent) have followed government guidance by already having or planing to have their booster jab. Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said public views on Covid rules are still “split”. “Few expect there to be a quick return to normality, and on the restrictions themselves as throughout the pandemic most people think they are about right or not strict enough – only a small minority (although a slightly increasing one) think they are too strict,” he said.”But views are split – not quite half think the restrictions are not strict enough, and there is a clear age divide, with older people more in favour of tighter restrictions than the young.”Some 67 per cent of people Ipsos Mori spoke to said they have or plan to test themselves with lateral flow tests more regularly while the same number are shopping online rather than in store in order to avoid catching the virus.A majority of Britons are also taking matters into their own hands by avoiding public transport (58 per cent have done so or plan to), not attending social gatherings in friends or family’s houses and not going to pubs or restaurants (both 57 per cent). Just under half (45 per cent) of workers say they are or are going to work from home instead of the office, while 47 per cent that they have not/plan not to attend their work Christmas party.When asked to consider the restrictions currently in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus, just over four in ten say they are not strict enough (44 per cent) while 36 per cent say they are about right and another 16 per cent that they are too strict.The British public’s decision to reduce social contact as omicron spreads has badly hit some businesses, particularly those in the hospitality and entertainment sectors, who have had Christmas bookings cancelled and takings slump due to reduced footfall in towns and cities across the country.After coming under pressure from the MPs, lobbyists and the Labour Party Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, who is against against further lockdowns, announced on Tuesday a financial package for firms affected by the surge in cases.He has offered a £1 billion support package to businesses hit by Covid restrictions amid concerns over the “eye-wateringly high” transmission of the omicron variant.The package includes one-off grants of up to £6,000 per premises for businesses in the affected sectors in England, which the Treasury expects will be administered by local authorities and to be available in the coming weeks.The government also intends to use taxpayers’ cash to cover the cost of statutory sick pay for Covid-related absences for firms with fewer than 250 employees. Cultural organisations in England can also access a further £30 million funding during the winter via the culture recovery fund, the Treasury said.Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said Labour “will be going through the details” of the new measures and claimed that the government had been “dragged kicking and screaming” to announce them.The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) welcomed the move but said that a “wider support package” could be needed if further restrictions are brought in in future.”We are pleased that the chancellor heard our call for additional grant funding for hospitality and leisure businesses, which will provide some much-needed support in the face of this increasingly difficult trading period,” said BCC director general Shevaun Haviland.”Clarity and speed will be needed to ensure that these grants are paid out swiftly to help these hard-pressed firms weather the next few weeks.”Whilst these measures are a positive starting point, if restrictions persist or are tightened further, then we would need to see a wider support package, equal to the scale of any new measures, put in place.”On Monday, a further 91,743 lab-confirmed Covid cases were recorded in the UK, and another 44 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for the disease. 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The emergence of the Omicron variant is causing concern around the world, not least because it is thought to be highly transmissible and because the 32 mutations of its spike protein suggest it might be able to resist current vaccines.The UK has recorded 12 deaths from the new variant so far and 45,145 confirmed cases, prompting fears that further social restrictions could be imposed on the British public in the final days leading up to Christmas, dashing the festive plans of millions. However, the government has so far resisted implementing any new measures this side of 25 December. Following a special meeting of the Cabinet on Monday afternoon, the prime minister said he had to “reserve the possibility” that further action would be needed at some point but said there were “still some things that we need to be clearer about before we decide to go further”.Mr Johnson said ministers were monitoring the data “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking further action were “very, very finely balanced”.“Unfortunately I must say to people that we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public, to protect public health, to protect our NHS,” he added. “We are looking at all kinds of things to keep Omicron under control and we will rule nothing out.”The prime minister is understood to be waiting for more data on Omicron to become available before he makes a decision, a stance that has already seen him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.At the weekend, London mayor Sadiq Khan declared a major incident over the extent of the outbreak in the capital while NHS England has announced a return to its highest level of emergency preparedness, level four national incident, meaning that the health service’s response will be coordinated as a national effort, rather than led by individual trusts. Overall, the UK added another 91,743 infections in 24 hours on Monday 20 December plus a further 44 fatalities, a slight fall from the pandemic high of 93,045 recorded the preceding Friday.To put that in perspective, case numbers were at 27,052 on 19 December 2020, the day Mr Johnson “cancelled” Christmas with “a very heavy heart”, abandoning a restrictions amnesty on household mixing and imposing severe tier 4 restrictions on much of the south east of England.Asked on Sunday by the BBC’s departing Andrew Marr about the possibility of further new restrictions being introduced before Christmas, health secretary Sajid Javid declined to rule it out, saying instead that there are “no guarantees in this pandemic” and that the “fast-moving” situation was being kept under review.Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is said to have led the call for fresh measures to drive down infection rates and ease the pressure on the NHS.Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an express train” and insisting that the government must give the public a “good, clear message” about how “serious the crisis is”.The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas has been mooted – and appears likely to be broadly popular with the public – with plans made available to ministers for consideration and apparently including a ban on meeting others indoors except for work purposes and limiting pubs and restaurants to outdoor service only. Both Mr Johnson and Mr Javid have repeatedly declined opportunities to definitively rule out tougher measures of this sort and transport secretary Grant Shapps did say last week that Parliament would be recalled over Christmas to vote on new restrictions should they become necessary, suggesting they are very much in the air.It is clear that the PM hopes encouraging the takeup of booster vaccines and the “Plan B” restrictions he recently introduced will be enough to see off the threat, at least until after Christmas, although the rising case numbers continue to cast considerable doubt on that contention.As preventative measures against Omicron under “Plan B”, Britons are currently again being ordered to wear face masks in shops, cinemas, theatres and places of worship and on public transport, to work from home order where possible and to show an NHS Covid pass in return for entry to nightclubs and other large venues and for outdoor events where there are more than 4,000 people, measures voted through the House of Commons despite a significant Tory revolt.The government has further revised its approach to boosters, planning to make them available to all over-18s by the end of December and halving the amount of time between second and third injections from six months to three, all in the hope of staving off the feared “tidal wave” of infections we are already beginning to see.Some form of “Plan C” – be it a circuit-breaker or something else – could well materialise should the Omicron outbreak worsen over the festive season and into the new year but, as for imposing a fourth national lockdown as seen earlier in the pandemic, that is considered the most extreme measure that could be taken, given the brutal economic toll it takes, hence the reluctance from Whitehall.But the Sage advisers have been unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London openly entertaining the possibility for several weeks.Even before Omicron began to cast its sinister shadow across the globe, many Britons were already glancing anxiously towards the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking cases of Covid-19.The World Health Organisation (WHO) had said it was “very worried” about the spread in Europe and warned 700,000 more deaths could be recorded by March unless urgent action is taken, bringing the total to 2.2 million since the pandemic began.Prior to the latest worrying developments sparked by Omicon, Mr Johnson’s government had been reluctant to reimpose restrictions at all, despite consistently high case numbers, preferring to pass the responsibility for personal safety onto the public and pursue its “Plan A” of promoting vaccine take-up and boosters to counter the waning of the country’s currently impressive level of immunity.While the vaccines have consistently kept death rates low since the spring, the UK’s infection level has remained consistently high, typically hovering around the 40,000-per-day mark but are now at more than double that.But the prime minister nevertheless doggedly refused to bend to scientists’ calls for the implementation of “Plan B” until it became unavoidable, no doubt out of fear that such a step could jeopardise Britain’s stumbling economic recovery.He might also have been keen to ward off the inevitable anger it would provoke, having seen anti-lockdown protests – some of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.Londoners were certainly unhappy about the initial return of the mask mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to wear one himself at several public engagements.However, in other quarters, there appeared to be a clear appetite for new restrictions even before Omicron, at least according to the polls.A recent survey of 900 managers and 1,200 employees carried out by Hack Future Lab found 53 per cent would welcome a “festive lockdown” for the sake of their own well-being after struggling to come to terms with the return to ordinary working conditions, often finding themselves forced to take on extra tasks to cover for absent colleagues.Another poll by Savanta ComRes revealed 45 per cent of adults would be in favour of a selective lockdown targeting only those who had declined to get their Covid jabs and therefore could pose an ongoing risk to othersBut, until Omicron threw a fresh spanner into the works, there was a credible case for believing that the UK was in such a strong position that it could avoid the worst of the outbreak marauding across Europe.Omicron variant shows just how ‘perilous’ Covid situation is, WHO saysAlthough Britain’s infection rate has remained high for months, it has also been highly stable, lingering at a seven-day average of around 600 daily cases per million people, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have suddenly spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from well below that starting point since the beginning of October.Part of the reason for this is that the UK was hit by the more infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was therefore able to tackle them ahead of its European neighbours and unlock earlier.As always with this pandemic, so much remains unknown and nothing can ever be definitively ruled out.Many will be haunted by memories of Christmas 2020, when plans had to be changed at the last moment to rein in climbing case numbers, and families were left frustrated, disappointed and unable to see vulnerable loved ones.While the festive television adverts might have been busy encouraging reckless spending and promising a bumper Yuletide to compensate for last year (while stocks last, that is), many would do well to temper their excitement by recalling the haunting words of public health professor Gabriel Scally from last December.“There is no point having a very merry Christmas and then burying friends and relations in January and February,” he said. 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The Omicron wave could lead to up to 1,000 daily deaths, according to government modelling, The Independent understands – heightening concern among ministers that a lockdown will be needed in the coming weeks.The estimates are a worst-case scenario modelled by members of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), and have placed Downing Street on high alert.Ministers believe that parliament could be recalled as early as next week to debate the imposition of further restrictions, with multiple senior sources claiming that the government is coming round to the realisation that Christmas cannot go ahead as normal.The prime minister is set to hold an emergency Cobra meeting with the devolved administrations over the weekend, where it’s expected the Sage modelling will be discussed.The cabinet will also be presented with a Covid data briefing on Saturday, but the government is understood to be awaiting further evidence on the impact of plan B measures and the booster rollout before decisions are taken.One insider said the figures that had been presented by Sage to No 10 on Friday afternoon were “very disturbing”. Another said they could be enough to convince ministers of the need to impose a lockdown.However, the sources emphasised that the 1,000 daily deaths figure was likely a worst-case estimate, with a wide range of other scenarios being presented to Downing Street in respect of the possible impact of the Omicron wave.A record 1,359 people died from Covid on 19 January this year, during the second wave. However, at this stage, the UK was in the early stages of its vaccination programme. Now, more than 80 per cent of the population have received two vaccine doses.In leaked papers seen by the BBC, Sage also emphasised that more stringent restrictions may need to be brought in “very soon” to prevent hospitalisation admissions in England reaching 3,000 a day.The warning comes as 93,045 new Covid infections were reported on Friday – the third day in a row that a pandemic record has been set. However, the true number of infections is thought to be far higher. Officials believe the UK could reach a million daily infections by next week.Separate modelling from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that cases of the Omicron variant are doubling every one-and-a-half days in some of the most populous regions of England, including London, the West Midlands, the northeast and Yorkshire and the Humber.Research from Imperial College London has meanwhile shown that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times greater than with Delta – implying that the protection past infection offers against reinfection by Omicron may be as low as 19 per cent.“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity, given by [either] infection or vaccination,” said Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the study’s authors. “This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.”The research also found no evidence that the variant is less virulent than Delta – though the finding was based on a low number of hospital admissions.Some 65 patients infected with Omicron were in English hospitals on Friday, the UKHSA said. The number of people in hospital with Covid in London has increased to 1,534, up 25.6 per cent on last week. These rising pressures have been attributed to both Omicron and the continuing spread of Delta.Downing Street is publicly resisting calls to impose further Covid restrictions as the variant continues its rapid spread through the population, though it’s understood a number of ministers now believe harsher measures than those currently in place are required.One senior official said there were mounting fears in No 10 that a fourth lockdown would be required to combat Omicron and prevent hospitalisations and deaths from surging. Another said it was “unlikely”, based on the emerging data, that Christmas would be normal. The Times reports that plans are now being drawn up for a two-week “circuit breaker” after 25 December.Boris Johnson spoke with Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon on Friday and discussed “the shared challenges” presented by the variant, according to a spokesperson for the PM. Counterparts from all four devolved administrations will join this weekend’s planned Cobra meeting to “continue discussions” around Omicron, the spokesperson added.Recent modelling from Imperial College professor Neil Ferguson, whose projections first convinced No 10 of the need to lock down in March 2020, paints a far bleaker outlook than Sage’s own analysis.Published on Friday, it made a number of estimates on what infection rates and deaths could look like in various scenarios.Among them is one scenario in which there could be up to 100 daily deaths per million in a high-income nation – not specified as the UK – where the majority of people over 10 were vaccinated and the majority of over-40s had received boosters.However, Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial and one of the researchers behind the modelling, said: “I think it’s an illustration of the need to act, rather than a prediction.”Prof Ferguson said: “We’re ahead of the rest of Europe in terms of the Omicron wave.“I agree that time is of the essence. I think if we’re going to make additional decisions – which remains to be seen – they probably will need to be made in the next week or two to have a substantial impact.”In separate comments on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday, he said that the epidemic of Omicron was now “very obvious” in London and would become more apparent across the country in the coming week.“The thing we’re most anxiously looking at, analysing, is what is happening to hospitalisation numbers – the key indicator in terms of how well we’re coping with this epidemic,” he said.“We’re seeing quite a significant surge in hospitalisations in the London region, which is most ahead, but less of an indication in other regions.”Asked whether the country was heading for “a very serious position” in hospitals in the coming weeks, he replied: “Yes, and … Chris Whitty said exactly the same in his last press conference. That is the major concern, and we’ll be more certain of … exactly what we’re heading to in the next few days, I think, with increasing amounts of data coming in.“But it is a real concern we’ll be heading into something which has the risk of overwhelming the health service.” More

Paul Givan, Northern Ireland’s first minister, said on Monday 13 December that the omicron variant of the coronavirus represented a “storm coming our way” while his deputy, Michelle O’Neill, warned that the country would “very, very soon” be overwhelmed by infections.“If ever there was a time for a united front on the public health message, it’s today because we’re facing into a very, very difficult period in the weeks ahead where we see this new variant now coming on stream,” Ms O’Neill told Stormont Assembly members during Executive Office questions.“We are going to be overwhelmed with this new variant very, very soon. My priority is to keep businesses open and safe. I want to keep every door opened but to make sure it’s a safe space for people to enter.”At that point, Northern Ireland had 10 confirmed cases but, three days later, it had 151, according to the Public Health Agency, only underlining the severity of the situation and the urgency of their message.Ministers are set to meet on Thursday 16 December to discuss the situation as a Department of Health paper being circulated warned that “significant intervention” could become necessary after Christmas to hold back the tide.“If omicron is associated with disease severity close to that of delta, significant intervention would be required immediately after Christmas at the latest to have a reasonable chance of keeping hospital inpatient numbers at less than 1,000,” the paper read.“It is likely that a peak in case numbers will occur in the middle third of January, with hospital admissions and occupancy peaking in late January/early February.“The extent of the hospital peak will depend on the severity of omicron illness, but without further measures is likely to exceed numbers observed earlier in the epidemic, potentially several fold.”Responding to the latest figure on the variant, chief medical officer Sir Michael McBride said he was “more concerned at this stage than he has been at any stage in the pandemic”, calling on the public to get their vaccine booster jabs and warning that new social restrictions could be forthcoming.Boosters are currently available to all adults aged over 30 in Northern Ireland who have had their second dose at least three months previously and are being made available at walk-in centres across the nation in a bid to stop the spread of the latest Covid strain.Those aged between 18 and 29 will be eligible from Monday 20 December.Other measures in place include the familiar guidance on masks and social distancing plus a Covid passport scheme requiring people to present proof of vaccination, a negative lateral flow test result or evidence of a previous infection in exchange for entry to large-gathering hospitality venues, which became legally enforceable from Monday 13 December after Assembly members voted 59-24 in favour.That came despite heated political opposition to the passes on ideological grounds, similar to that seen in England when backbench Tory rebels joined with Liberal Democrats to revolt against Boris Johnson, and saw demonstrations held outside the chamber by protestors.Their implementation means the passes are now mandatory for access to pubs, restaurants and other licensed premises as well as live sporting events and gigs.Professor Ian Young, the country’s chief scientific officer, entertained the possibility of further restrictions being brought in to tackle omicron when he pledged that “we will respond rapidly” to any case spike and said the public should be reassured that there are contingency plans in place “which can be activated very quickly by the executive”.The state of play at present is thought to be around two weeks behind the outbreaks in England and Scotland, although Dr Tom Black, chairman of the British Medical Association in Northern Ireland, has moved to discourage people from needless socialising as a precautionary preventative measure.“You go out and mix with a crowd next week, one of them will have omicron,” Dr Black told BBC Radio Ulster.“It’s so infectious, you’ll then come home with it. Which is why I won’t be going out socialising this week or next.”Mr Givan had previously said it was acceptable for people to attend festive parties so long as they followed the rules, commenting: “We want to keep things open and to do things safely, so people should continue to make their plans now and in the run-up to Christmas, but to do it safely and to follow the public health advice around that.” More

Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford has warned his compatriots that more severe coronavirus restrictions could be implemented after Christmas in response to the omicron variant.Wales currently has relatively light Covid-19 guidance in place, asking the public to observe social distancing and meet outdoors when possible, wear masks in public spaces, wash hands with care and be prepared to show an NHS Covid Pass for entry to cinemas, theatres and concert halls.But speaking during a televised address on Monday 13 December, Mr Drakeford said all eligible adults in Wales would be offered a booster jab by the end of the year, which he said was “vital” to seeing off the threat posed by the new strain of the virus, which has infected 62 people in Cymru so far.Interviewed subsequently on ITV Wales, the first minister said: “As we know, the traditional way of doing things in Wales is people go out together and socialise in the run-up to Christmas, and then in the post-Christmas period there’s a standing back from that.“There may be a period in the post-Christmas days when we can do more to stem the flow of the omicron variant. But, in this business, what will happen in three or four weeks’ time is a long way away.”Mr Drakeford is expected to give a further update on the situation on Friday 17 December.His health minister, Baroness Eluned Morgan, had earlier warned that the devolved government was “currently not taking anything off the table” as infections rise.“The last thing we want to do is cancel Christmas. I think it is important we make that absolutely clear,” she told journalists at a briefing.“But we are not currently taking anything off the table either, so the best thing for people to do, in order to see if we can remain in a situation where we are all able to see each other over Christmas is to take precautions now, so that we don’t see the kind of increasing rates that we are all expecting.“A lot of this is in our hands, as individuals and as a community. The more you mix now, the more likely you are to contract Covid, and this particular form of Covid.“Certainly, at the very minimum we will be asking people to take lateral flow tests before they mix at Christmas but that is something they should be undertaking already, particularly if they are meeting older and vulnerable people,” she added.“I think people should plan because we don’t know what the situation will be at Christmas time. Taking the opportunity to do things early would be a sensible option, but we have no idea what Christmas will look like because it’s such an unpredictable situation.”Baroness Morgan’s department is striving to hit a target of 200,000 booster vaccinations a day, with health boards again opening pop-up centres, including walk-in and drive-through clinics with longer opening hours, often partially staffed by volunteers.Dr Gill Richardson of Public Health Wales has meanwhile suggested that the rules surrounding the NHS Covid Pass may have to be reviewed in light of the ramping up of the booster programme.On schools, the national picture is currently being assessed after two local councils, Denbighshire and Anglesey, decided to close theirs early – from 17 December – forcing students to take their learning online for the final days of term. More