Health

Following the revelation that some 15,000 overlooked coronavirus test results had been added to the weekend’s totals, experts have warned the seemingly “fundamental” IT error raises “worrying” questions over the government’s past and future handling of data.The explanation prompted concern that additional cases may remain overlooked, with one expert comparing the system apparently used to collate testing data to “a similar architecture you used to see in banks 30 years ago”.And as officials grappled with drastically altered local infection rates, a data scientist warned the blunder’s possible “knock-on effects” on the already strained contact-tracing system could have a “substantial influence on the generation of new cases”.After the government’s Covid-19 Dashboard showed record daily caseloads of 12,872 and 22,961 on Saturday and Sunday respectively, officials said the stark rise was due to an IT glitch discovered on Friday evening.As a result, 15,841 cases were included that had previously been left out of the totals announced between 25 September and 2 October.Watch moreWhile the revelation prompted furious and still unanswered questions over how many possibly infected people had been missed by contact tracers as a result of the glitch, Public Health England (PHE) sought to clarify the cause of the error.The “technical issue” was that some digital “files containing positive test results exceeded the maximum file size” accepted by the government’s central computer systems, officials said.A “rapid mitigation” had been put in place to split large files, while “a full end-to-end review of all systems” had been ordered “to mitigate the risk of this happening again”, PHE said, adding that there are already a number of automated and manual checks within the system.But a computer science expert said the explanation raised a “whole series of unanswered questions, some of which are quite worrying”.The statement suggests that the mistake was only picked up as officials audited or reconciled previous counts of results, and that computer systems did not issue basic alerts that some results had been rejected by the central server.“It’s quite an oddity because it only seems to have been found out by happenstance. It’s not that the system was warning them,” Alan Woodward, visiting professor at the University of Surrey’s Department of Computer Science, told The Independent. This appeared to raise the possibility that test results had been slipping through the gaps for weeks, and thus omitted from official counts in the past.“It is a possibility, and that’s one of the really worrying things about this, are they going back to look?” Prof Woodward said. “I mean, how big are these files?”He added: “If this [explanation] is plausible, what’s also plausible is the fact that it may have been happening before, so were the numbers higher all along?“But then presumably somebody would have caught it earlier and, if they didn’t catch it, does that mean they weren’t reconciling things to make sure all the tests were actually counted?”Asked whether smaller quantities of test results could have been slipping under the radar for weeks, a PHE spokesperson told The Independent: “Smaller numbers wouldn’t have triggered this problem. It’s not that the individual files are too big, it’s that when they’re all grouped together and large numbers are reported simultaneously, that can become too big. “I’m not sure how big the individual files are, but I’m reassured that the problem is with bundling them together rather than the actual file size. “It’s also important to note that this isn’t the only place where there’s a record of [the results] — the individual trusts who perform the tests keep a record which can be … cross-referenced.”Despite the multiple records available for cross-referencing, the spokesperson was unable to explain the week-long delay in officials realising thousands of results had not been counted.Meanwhile, the admission that the government’s computer systems send test results over in batches rather than in real-time raised eyebrows.“That’s a very old fashioned way of doing it,” Prof Woodward said. “In this day and age, especially with continuous connectivity, there should be no reason why … once [a test result] gets confirmed and validated inside the lab, it goes up, so as real-time as possible could be done.”He added that the structure by which results appear to be collated from individual laboratories is “a similar architecture you used to see in banks 30 years ago”.Coronavirus test chief Baroness Harding denies system is failing as pressure mounts“Being naive, I thought it would have been just literally the test centres would have had a … piece of software they would be putting their results into and that would then get stored on the central database,” Prof Woodward said. “But it looks like what’s happening is that all the testing centres have got their own systems and then at some point a batch of those get sent to the centre, which is a bit odd for this day and age.”He continued: “It’s not a huge surprise on a big system that you get teething problems, but at the same time — and I should show some of my frustration here — building a completely new system as we have done rather than continue with the existing NHS track and trace and just utilising that all seems odd to me. The very time you do not need to be ironing out the bugs in a new system is in the middle of a pandemic.”Meanwhile, Test and Trace chiefs insisted that all those who tested positive received their results “in the normal way” and were told to self-isolate.And despite daily positive tests caseloads in the week from 25 September being between 744 and 4,786 infections higher than shown in government figures, the government insisted decisions on localised restrictions affecting millions of people had not been affected.But in Liverpool, where new restrictions were imposed on Thursday, the revised total meant the city’s infection rate soared from 287 to 456 cases per 100,000 residents, while Manchester emerged as the worst-hit part of the UK, with some 496 infections per 100,000 people.“The big problem with this latest data issue from PHE is that we were misled as to the underlying trend during that period,” said independent statistician Nigel Marriott. “Up to Friday it looked like the recent surge in cases had paused and there was hope of a turnaround in some places.  But with the revisions, it is clear that there is still a strong upward trend and more measures may be needed to reverse the trend.  “At present, the ‘50,000 cases by mid-October scenario’ postulated by [England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty] last month can’t be ruled out, although I suspect the number will be closer to 25,000. “What hasn’t changed is the sensitivity of the national trend to what is happening in the North.  The sooner the North slows down and reverses, the less likely we are to fulfil the CMO’s scenario”.And as cabinet minister Therese Coffey was unable to give an estimate for how many people had been missed by contact-tracers as a result of the blunder, one expert warned there would be a knock-on effect upon future contact-tracing efforts.“While it appears [contacts] are now being contacted as a matter of priority, this additional strain on a system already stretched to its limit implies that further delays are likely to occur for other cases where contact tracing is needed,” said Rowland Kao, a professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh.“These knock-on effects may have a substantial influence on the generation of new cases, over a period even longer than that.” More

The long-delayed NHS Covid-19 app has hit fresh trouble after it emerged it could not process tens of thousands of test results in England.Ministers were under pressure to explain the “extraordinary” failure, affecting tests at NHS hospitals and Public Health England laboratories, which provoked more criticism of the technology.To add to the embarrassment, the Welsh government said it had avoided the same problem – which came just two days after the app was finally launched, four months later than promised.The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) on Saturday night that developers had fixed the flaw after “working urgently” to tackle the issue, which left people in England whose tests were carried out at the privately run “lighthouse labs” able to input results but not those in NHS settings.The results are meant to be used to enable the app to carry out contact tracing, the key purpose of the technology to help curb the spread of coronavirus infectionsWatch moreProfessor Stephen Reicher, a government adviser, said the “extraordinary” weakness pointed to “centralised privatised cronyism” which was undermining the test and trace system.“It exemplifies precisely why test and trace continues to fail: the divorce between the new privatised testing system and NHS/Public Health structures,” he tweeted.“So, fix the app. But that won’t be enough. We need a rapid reset of testing more generally. No more centralised privatised cronyism. Rebuild the system based on trusted local NHS and Public Health.” Jonathan Ashworth, Labour’s health spokesman, asked: “Have they really launched an app that doesn’t actually link to tests carried out by NHS hospital labs & PHE labs instead only including tests carried out via the outsourced lighthouse lab network??”On Friday, more than 61,000 processed tests in England were handled by PHE and the NHS, underlining the potential scale of the problem.It emerged when one concerned user warned, on Twitter, that he could not submit his test results to the app on its launch day, because he did not have a code.The app’s own account replied, saying: “If your test took place in a Public Health England lab or NHS hospital, or as part of national surveillance testing conducted by the Office for National Statistics, test results cannot currently be linked with the app whether they’re positive or negative.”While DHSC said the issue had been fixed on Saturday for those who receive a positive test result, it acknowledged there was still no way for people in England to log a negative result.The Welsh government was quick to point out it had no such problems, saying: “We took the decision to link our all-Wales laboratory testing systems with the NHS Covid-19 app.“Here you’ll get a code in your test result notifications to enter into the app, whether your result is positive or negative.”Since Thursday’s launch, some people have complained of being unable to download the app, and that only positive results could be inputted if tests were booked outside the app.Read moreThe technology uses the Bluetooth signal in both Apple and Android mobile phones to detect close and sustained contact between users.But there are also fears it will have little impact unless installed by most of the public. Experts once warned an 80 per cent take-up was needed – but even the most successful apps in other countries have not topped 40 per cent.It also allows users to check and report symptoms, to book a test, to find out if the result was positive, to check the local risk level and to provide contact details to premises.A DHSC spokesperson said: “Everyone who receives a positive test result can log their result on the app. “A minority of people, such as hospital patients, who were unable to log their positive result can now request a code when contacted by NHS Test and Trace to input on their app.” The ability to log a negative result is being looked at after users said they wanted to be able to do so,  DHSC added. More

New face mask rules for taxi passengers will not apply to those in chauffeur-driven cars, Downing Street has said. The new restrictions included a rule stating passengers in taxis and private hire vehicles would have to wear face masks.However, No10 said this rule would not apply to passengers in chauffeur-driven cars – although the driver’s employer would have to ensure they could work safely.The UK prime minister’s official spokesperson said: “The employer of the chauffeur will have to make sure that their employees can work in a Covid-secure way.”Read moreWhen pressed if chauffeurs are covered by the new law, the spokesman said: “The important point to make is the driver of a licensed vehicle will be picking up a wide variety of customers throughout the day but it’s important to protect the driver from being infected from a significant number of different people.They added: “The scenario that you’re describing, that person would only be a single individual around so I don’t think they’re comparable.”The spokesperson said he would check whether the rule applies to ministers being driven around in ministerial cars.The new rule requiring taxi passengers to wear face masks came into force on Wednesday.Watch moreMr Johnson said earlier this week people will have to start wearing face masks in pubs, restaurants and other hospitality venues while moving around the site – but not when sat at tables – from Thursday.People working in hospitality and retail will also have to wear a face coverings from Thursday.Mr Johnson announced a doubling of fines to £200 for a first offence for anyone who breaks the mask-wearing rules or the “rule-of-six”.On top of these expanded face mask rules, the UK prime minister also revealed a curfew for pubs and restaurants in England and told office workers in the country to work from home where possible. New coronavirus infections topped 6,100 in the UK on Wednesday – the highest daily total since the start of May.Additional reporting by Press Association More