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    Gustavo Petro Wins the Election, Becoming Colombia’s First Leftist Leader

    The former rebel and longtime senator’s victory sets the third largest nation in Latin America on a sharply new path.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — For the first time, Colombia will have a leftist president.Gustavo Petro, a former rebel and a longtime legislator, won Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, galvanizing voters frustrated by decades of poverty and inequality under conservative leaders, with promises to expand social programs, tax the wealthy and move away from an economy he has called overly reliant on fossil fuels.His victory sets the third largest nation in Latin America on a sharply uncertain path, just as it faces rising poverty and violence that have sent record numbers of Colombians to the United States border; high levels of deforestation in the Colombian Amazon, a key buffer against climate change; and a growing distrust of key democratic institutions, which has become a trend in the region.Mr. Petro, 62, received more than 50 percent of the vote, with more than 99 percent counted Sunday evening. His opponent, Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate who had energized the country with a scorched-earth anti-corruption platform, won just over 47 percent.Shortly after the vote, Mr. Hernández conceded to Mr. Petro.“Colombians, today the majority of citizens have chosen the other candidate,” he said. “As I said during the campaign, I accept the results of this election.”Mr. Petro took the stage Sunday night flanked by his vice-presidential pick, Francia Márquez, and three of his children. The packed stadium went wild, with people standing on chairs and holding phones aloft.“This story that we are writing today is a new story for Colombia, for Latin America, for the world,” he said. “We are not going to betray this electorate.”He pledged to govern with what he has called “the politics of love,” based on hope, dialogue and understanding.Just over 58 percent of Colombia’s 39 million voters turned out to cast a ballot, according to official figures.The victory means that Ms. Márquez, an environmental activist who rose from poverty to become a prominent advocate for social justice, will become the country’s first Black vice president.Francia Márquez, at a campaign event last month in Yumbo, Colombia.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMr. Petro and Ms. Márquez’s victory reflects an anti-establishment fervor that has spread across Latin America, exacerbated by the pandemic and other longstanding issues, including a lack of opportunity.“The entire country is begging for change,” said Fernando Posada, a Colombian political scientist, “and that is absolutely clear.”In April, Costa Ricans elected to the presidency Rodrigo Chaves, a former World Bank official and political outsider, who took advantage of widespread discontent with the incumbent party. Last year, Chile, Peru and Honduras voted for leftist leaders running against candidates on the right, extending a significant, multiyear shift across Latin America.As a candidate, Mr. Petro had energized a generation that is the most educated in Colombian history, but is also dealing with 10 percent annual inflation, a 20 percent youth unemployment rate and a 40 percent poverty rate. His rallies were often full of young people, many of whom said they feel betrayed by decades of leaders who had made grand promises, but delivered little.“We’re not satisfied with the mediocrity of past generations,” said Larry Rico, 23, a Petro voter at a polling station in Ciudad Bolívar, a poor neighborhood in Bogotá, the capital.Mr. Petro’s win is all the more significant because of the country’s history. For decades, the government fought a brutal leftist insurgency known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, with the stigma from the conflict making it difficult for a legitimate left to flourish.But the FARC signed a peace deal with the government in 2016, laying down their arms and opening space for a broader political discourse.Mr. Petro had been part of a different rebel group, called the M-19, which demobilized in 1990, and became a political party that helped rewrite the country’s constitution. Eventually, Mr. Petro became a forceful leader in the country’s opposition, known for denouncing human rights abuses and corruption.Voters cast their ballots in Colombia’s presidential election, in Bucaramanga, on Sunday.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesOn Sunday, in a wealthy part of Bogotá, Francisco Ortiz, 67, a television director, said he had also voted for Mr. Petro.“It’s been a long time since we had an opportunity like this for change,” he said. “If things will get better, I don’t know. But if we stick with the same, we already know what we’re going to get.”The win could also test the United States’ relationship with its strongest ally in Latin America. Traditionally, Colombia has formed the cornerstone of Washington’s policy in the region.But Mr. Petro has criticized what he calls the United States’ failed approach to the drug war, saying it has focused too much on eradication of the coca crop, the base product in cocaine, and not enough on rural development and other measures.Mr. Petro has said he embraces some form of drug legalization, that he will renegotiate an existing trade deal with the United States to better benefit Colombians and that he will restore relations with the authoritarian government of president Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, all of which could create conflict with the United States.About two million Venezuelan migrants have fled to Colombia in recent years amid an economic, political and humanitarian crisis.Colombian soldiers in a coca growing area near the border with Venezuela. The United States has spent billions of dollars in Colombia in the past two decades to help its governments halt the production and export of cocaine, to little effect.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMr. Petro, in an interview earlier this year, said he believed he could work well with the government of President Biden, adding that his relationship with the United States would focus on working together to tackle climate change, specifically halting the rapid erosion of the Amazon.“There is a point of dialogue there,” he said. “Because saving the Amazon rainforest involves some instruments, some programs, that do not exist today, at least not with respect to the United States. It is, in my opinion, the priority.”Both Mr. Petro and Mr. Hernández had beaten Federico Gutiérrez, a former big city mayor backed by the conservative elite, in a first round of voting on May 29, sending them to a runoff.Both men had billed themselves as anti-establishment candidates, saying they were running against a political class that had controlled the country for generations.Among the factors that most distinguished them was how they viewed the root of the country’s problems.Mr. Petro believes the economic system is broken, overly reliant on oil export and a flourishing and illegal cocaine business that he said has made the rich richer and poor poorer. He is calling for a halt to all new oil exploration, and a shift to developing other industries.He has also said he will introduce guaranteed work with a basic income, move the country to a publicly controlled health system and increase access to higher education, in part by raising taxes on the rich.“What we have today is the result of what I call ‘the depletion of the model,’” Mr. Petro said in the interview earlier this year, referring to the current economic system. “The end result is a brutal poverty.”His ambitious economic plan has, however, raised concerns. One former finance minister called his energy plan “economic suicide.”Mr. Hernández did not want to overhaul the economic framework, but said it was inefficient because it is riddled with corruption and frivolous spending. He had called for combining ministries, eliminating some embassies and firing inefficient government employees, while using savings to help the poor.Mr. Hernández during a campaign event this month in Barranquilla, Colombia.Federico Rios for The New York TimesOne Hernández supporter, Nilia Mesa de Reyes, 70, a retired ethics professor who voted in an affluent section of Bogotá, said that Mr. Petro’s leftist policies, and his past with the M-19, terrified her. “We’re thinking about leaving the country,” she said.Mr. Petro’s critics, including former allies, have accused him of arrogance that leads him to ignore advisers and struggle to build consensus. When he takes office in August, he will face a deeply polarized society where polls show growing distrust in almost all major institutions.He has vowed to serve as the president of all Colombians, not just those who voted for him.On Sunday, at a high school-turned-polling station in Bogotá, Ingrid Forrero, 31, said she saw a generational divide in her community, with young people supporting Mr. Petro and older generations in favor of Mr. Hernández.Her own family calls her the “little rebel” because of her support for Mr. Petro, whom she said she favors because of his policies on education and income inequality.“The youth is more inclined toward revolution,” she said, “toward the left, toward a change.”Megan Janetsky contributed reporting from Bucaramanga, Colombia, and Sofía Villamil and Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá. More

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    ¿El próximo presidente de Colombia está listo para enfrentar la violencia?

    BOGOTÁ — El mes pasado, una organización criminal armada paralizó casi un tercio del norte de Colombia, en buena medida sin resistencia. “A partir de esta fecha se decreta cuatro días de paro armado”, decía un panfleto del 5 de mayo que ordenaba a la gente a que permaneciera en sus casas, cerrara los negocios y vaciara las calles.El Clan del Golfo, un grupo del narcotráfico de corte paramilitar, inició el paro contra el gobierno colombiano en represalia por la captura y extradición a Estados Unidos de su líder, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, conocido como Otoniel. “No nos hacemos responsables de aquellos que no acaten las órdenes”, advertía ominosamente el grupo.Para enfatizar su mensaje, los miembros del Clan del Golfo marcaron paredes con sus iniciales en los centros urbanos, quemaron vehículos y camiones para bloquear carreteras, instalaron puestos de control ilegales y patrullaron los campos en motocicletas. Con poca policía estatal o presencia militar para proteger las zonas rurales, los colombianos en 11 de los 32 departamentos del país acataron las órdenes del grupo y se impuso una quietud fantasmal.Al final de los cuatro días, al menos ocho personas habían muerto, casi 200 vehículos habían sido incinerados y muchos de los tres millones de personas afectadas se estaban quedando sin comida y otros productos básicos.El Clan del Golfo también parece estar incidiendo en la elección presidencial. El grupo emitió amenazas por escrito a los partidarios del candidato de izquierda, Gustavo Petro, y en las zonas rurales donde el recuerdo del paro seguía presente, los líderes comunitarios dijeron que el miedo limitó la participación de los votantes.Pero tal vez porque hay mucho en juego, un porcentaje alto de votantes acudió el 29 de mayo a las urnas para la primera vuelta electoral. Petro obtuvo poco más del 40 por ciento de los 21 millones de votos totales y se enfrentará en la segunda vuelta del 19 de junio a Rodolfo Hernández, un controversial empresario inmobiliario de derecha que hizo una fuerte campaña en TikTok.Aunque ambos candidatos difieren de manera significativa en todos los temas —desde la movilidad social hasta la política exterior— comparten una debilidad: ninguno ha articulado un plan claro para detener el aumento de la amenaza armada y la violencia que afecta a la Colombia rural, como revelan las acciones del Clan del Golfo. Los números de personas desplazadas, la acumulación de asesinatos de líderes sociales y comunitarios y el reclutamiento forzoso de niños, son indicios de que la seguridad se está deteriorando con rapidez.Ni Petro ni Hernández parecen estar preparados para enfrentar los desafíos de las zonas rurales en conflicto. Además de la violencia organizada del Clan del Golfo, alrededor de una decena de otros grupos armados recorren las áreas más vulnerables del país, buscando controlar territorios para establecer rutas lucrativas de tráfico de drogas y otros mercados ilegales.El próximo presidente de Colombia debe alejarse del enfoque actual del gobierno de priorizar las capturas y extradiciones de líderes de organizaciones ilegales, como la que causó el paro armado. Esta estrategia no ha logrado desmantelar a los grupos criminales pero sí ha generado consecuencias profundas para los civiles.En cambio, el nuevo presidente debería centrarse en una política que reoriente a las fuerzas de seguridad de Colombia para proteger a los civiles de los grupos armados, que hoy ejercen una autoridad de facto en muchas partes del país. Esto, sumado a la implementación de programas sociales y una inversión sustancial en el campo, puede ayudar a cambiar el rumbo y pavimentar el camino hacia la paz.La policía colombiana escoltó a Dairo Antonio Úsuga, líder del Clan del Golfo, cuando fue extraditado a Estados Unidos en mayo.Prensa Presidencial/Agence France-Presse vía Getty ImagesEl acuerdo de paz, firmado en 2016 entre el Estado y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), ha logrado reducir en buena medida la violencia rural. Pero algunas regiones, como Montes de María, donde los grupos armados están tomando el control de enormes territorios —incluidas grandes áreas que las FARC solían controlar—, son un buen anticipo de la situación que enfrentará el candidato que gane la elección.Cuando visité Montes de María en marzo, me quedó claro que esta región agrícola, rica en recursos, estaba en crisis. El Clan del Golfo ha expandido agresivamente su presencia desde la firma del acuerdo de paz, reclamando rutas de tráfico e imponiendo el cobro de pagos de protección a la población. Este grupo armado —como casi todos los que hoy operan en el país— evita los enfrentamientos con los militares. Su objetivo no es tomar poder en Bogotá, sino sacar ganancias de las tierras y de su gente.Se suponía que esto no debería suceder. El acuerdo de paz con las FARC eliminaría las desigualdades que habían empoderado a las guerrillas y a los narcotraficantes. Prometía ayudar a los agricultores pobres que cultivaban coca, la materia prima de la cocaína, a abandonar un medio de vida que los exponía a la violencia. Cerca de 100.000 familias se apuntaron y arrancaron voluntariamente sus cultivos de coca.No obstante, el gobierno actual, encabezado por el presidente Iván Duque, llegó al poder en 2018 argumentando que el acuerdo de paz era demasiado indulgente con las FARC, y se ha enfocado en las partes del acuerdo afines a sus intereses políticos —como la desmovilización de excombatientes y el gasto en infraestructura— mientras que otras promesas, como abordar la desigualdad en la posesión de tierras y el respaldo a la sustitución de cultivos de coca, quedaron en el olvido.Al mismo tiempo, decenas de grupos armados, como el Clan del Golfo, han mostrado ser más ágiles, tenaces y económicamente habilidosos para aprovechar las oportunidades que ofreció el desmantelamiento de las FARC.Al interior del país, hombres armados reclutan a la fuerza a niños para engrosar sus filas, sacándolos de sus hogares y escuelas. Otros adultos jóvenes se unen por su cuenta porque, sin posibilidades de educación o trabajo, el conflicto es el único empleo disponible. En el sur de Córdoba, el Clan del Golfo se promueve como “la única empresa que tiene las puertas siempre abiertas”.La élite política colombiana considera, erróneamente, que estas amenazas están desvinculadas de la desesperación social y económica que viven muchos colombianos. Es más fácil culpar de los disturbios a otros enemigos, ya sea Venezuela, las guerrillas de izquierda o los rivales políticos. Y, de hecho, en lugar de solucionar esta situación, la respuesta más común del gobierno ha sido desplegar el ejército.Los soldados enviados para acabar con la inestabilidad saben que este enfoque no está funcionando. “Aquí no hay una solución militar”, me dijo un comandante de una brigada militar en una de las zonas de conflicto más ríspidas de Colombia, sugiriendo que lo que se necesitaba era inversión social.Por ahora, muchas de las fuerzas del gobierno están enfocadas en la erradicación forzosa de la coca, eliminando los cultivos que luego se vuelven a sembrar en tasas que, se calcula, llegan al 50 y 67 por ciento. La estrategia de las fuerzas armadas de matar y capturar a miembros de los grupos armados deriva en el reemplazo inmediato de esas bajas con nuevos reclutas.En pocas palabras, la estrategia inadecuada del gobierno colombiano en las zonas remotas es parcialmente culpable del resurgimiento de la violencia. Los candidatos presidenciales tienen la oportunidad de cambiar de rumbo.Es alentador que tanto Petro como Hernández han dicho que implementarán el acuerdo de paz de 2016, que el gobierno de Duque ha descuidado en muchos puntos. Sin embargo, ninguno de los dos ha presentado un plan claro sobre cómo gestionar el deterioro de la situación de seguridad de los ciudadanos de a pie.Petro, quien en el pasado fue parte de una organización guerrillera, se comprometió a iniciar un diálogo con los grupos armados e implementar la desmovilización de grupos del crimen organizado, como el Clan del Golfo. Hernández, por su parte, ha sugerido agregar al Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) al acuerdo firmado con las FARC.Aunque en estas ideas hay algunos elementos que podrían funcionar, la mejor manera de abordar la crisis es proteger a los colombianos que viven en el epicentro del conflicto, con mejores servicios policiales, oportunidades económicas y razones concretas que les permita confiar en el gobierno.Una presión puntual de Washington puede ayudar. La reciente declaración del gobierno de Biden que destaca al acuerdo de paz es importante pero ha sido socavada por sus acciones. Los dólares estadounidenses se gastan de manera desproporcionada en enfoques de mano dura, como la erradicación forzosa de la coca, que no contribuyen mucho a resolver el problema y exacerban la desconfianza en el gobierno.La zozobra que aún acecha en las calles del norte de Colombia está avanzando demasiado rápido y lejos como para ignorarla. Los candidatos y los votantes urbanos que ignoran estos desafíos lo hacen bajo su propio riesgo. Lo que está en juego en las elecciones se extiende al futuro de un conflicto que se suponía que había terminado pero que, más bien, se está reavivando.Colombia, que ya había empezado a acabar con un conflicto armado, no debería permitir que vuelva a estallar.Elizabeth Dickinson (@dickinsonbeth) es analista sénior del International Crisis Group para Colombia, con sede en Bogotá. Antes de unirse a la organización en 2017, trabajó durante una década como periodista. More

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    How to Stop Colombia’s Surging Violence

    BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Last month a criminal armed group shut down much of the northern third of Colombia — largely uncontested. “We decree four days of Armed Strike from this moment,” read the May 5 pamphlet ordering the population to stay indoors, the shops to close and the roads to be empty. The Gulf Clan, a paramilitary-style drug trafficking group, initiated the strike against the Colombian government in retaliation for the capture and extradition of its leader, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, known as Otoniel, to the United States. “We are not responsible for what happens to those who do not comply,” the group warned ominously.To emphasize their point, Gulf Clan members tagged walls in the urban centers with their initials, burned cars and buses to block roads, set up illegal checkpoints and patrolled rural areas by motorcycle. With little state police or military presence to protect the countryside, Colombians in 11 of the country’s 32 departments (similar to U.S. states) obeyed the illegal group’s orders, and a ghostly calm descended.After four days, at least eight people had been killed, nearly 200 vehicles were burned, and many of the three million people affected were running short on food and other basic supplies. The Gulf Clan also appears to be effecting the presidential election. The group issued direct written threats to supporters of the left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro, and in rural areas where the memory of the strike lingered, community leaders said fear did suppress some voter turnout.But perhaps because the stakes are so high, voters nationwide came to the polls at high levels for the first round of elections on May 29. Mr. Petro secured just over 40 percent of the 21 million total votes and will face off with Rodolfo Hernández, an outspoken, right-leaning real estate magnate who campaigned heavily on TikTok, in the runoff on June 19.Though the winning candidates differ significantly on everything from social mobility to foreign policy, they share one weakness: Neither has articulated a clear plan to contain rising levels of conflict and armed violence in the countryside, like the Gulf Clan actions. As seen in higher levels of displacement, assassinations of social and community leaders, and child recruitment, security is deteriorating rapidly.Neither Mr. Petro nor Mr. Hernández seems prepared to address the challenges of Colombia’s rural war zones. In addition to organized criminal violence from the Gulf Clan, about a dozen other armed groups prowl the country’s most vulnerable areas, seeking to control territories that provide lucrative drug trafficking routes. Colombia’s next president must move away from the state’s current approach of narrowly prioritizing captures and extraditions like the one that sparked the armed strike — that strategy fails to dismantle criminal groups but carries deep consequences for civilians.Instead, the new president should focus on a policy that empowers Colombia’s security forces to protect civilians from the armed groups who wield de facto authority in substantial parts of the country. This, coupled with social programs and investment in the countryside, can start to turn the tide definitively toward peace.Colombian National Police escorted Dairo Antonio Úsuga, a drug lord and head of the Gulf Clan, as he was extradited to the United States in May.Prensa Presidencial/Agence France-Presse, via Getty ImagesThe signing of a 2016 peace agreement between the state and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, has greatly reduced rural violence nationwide. But regions like Montes de María, where armed groups are taking control of parts of the country’s vast hinterland, including large areas that the FARC used to control, offer a foretaste of the reality the winning candidate will face.When I visited Montes de María in March, it was clear that this resource-rich agricultural region was in a crisis. The Gulf Clan has aggressively expanded its presence since the peace accord, claiming lucrative trafficking routes and imposing protection taxes on the population. This armed group — like nearly all of those operating in the country today — avoids clashing with the military. Its goal is not to take over in Bogotá, but rather to suck rents out of the land and its people.This wasn’t supposed to happen. The 2016 peace accord with the FARC chipped away at the inequalities that had empowered guerrillas and drug traffickers alike. It promised to help poor farmers growing coca — the raw material for cocaine — leave behind a livelihood that exposed them to violence. Nearly 100,000 families signed up and voluntarily ripped up their coca crops.Yet the outgoing conservative government, led by President Iván Duque, entered office in 2018 alleging that the peace agreement was too lenient on the FARC and has focused on carrying out parts of the accord that serve its political interests — such as demobilizing the former FARC and infrastructure spending — while leaving others, like addressing land inequality and supporting coca crop substitution, to wither.At the same time, dozens of armed groups like the Gulf Clan have proved nimble, tenacious and economically adept at capturing the opportunities afforded by the FARC’s withdrawal.Across the countryside, armed men are forcibly recruiting children to their ranks, ripping them out of their homes and schools. Other young adults sign up willingly because, in the absence of education or jobs, fighting is the only employment on offer. “The only company whose doors are always open” is how the Gulf Clan describes itself in southern Córdoba.The ruling political elite erroneously views these threats as disconnected from the social and economic desperation experienced by many Colombians. It is easier to pin the blame for unrest on other enemies, whether it be Venezuela, leftist guerrillas or political rivals. And indeed, rather than redressing grievances, the government’s default response has been to deploy the military.The soldiers sent to stamp out instability know the approach isn’t working. “There is no military solution here,” a military brigade commander told me in one of Colombia’s fiercest conflict areas, suggesting that what was needed was social investment. For now, many of the government’s forces are tied down forcibly eradicating coca by ripping up the crops that are then replanted at rates estimated to reach between 50 percent and 67 percent. The military’s policy to kill and capture armed-group members only results in new recruits to immediately fill their shoes.Put simply, the Colombian government’s flawed strategy in the countryside is partly to blame for the resurgent violence. Presidential candidates have an opportunity to shift course.Encouragingly, both Mr. Petro and Mr. Hernández have said they will implement the 2016 peace accord, many parts of which the current government has neglected. However, neither has presented a clear plan for how to manage the deteriorating security situation for civilians. Mr. Petro, himself a former rebel, has pledged to begin a dialogue with armed groups and implement demobilization for organized crime groups like the Gulf Clan. Mr. Hernández has suggested adding the guerrilla group National Liberation Army, or ELN, to the existing accord with the FARC.While there are some elements of a solution here, the best way to avert conflict is to protect Colombians living at the heart of the conflict, with better policing, economic opportunities and concrete reasons to trust the government.The right kind of pressure from Washington can help. The Biden administration’s recent statement emphasizing the peace accord is important but undermined by its actions. U.S. dollars are disproportionately spent on strong-arm approaches, such as forced coca eradication, that do little to tackle the problem and exacerbate distrust of the government.The foreboding that still haunts the streets of the country’s north is spreading too fast and too far across Colombia to ignore. The candidates and urban voters ignore these challenges at their peril. The huge stakes of the elections extend to the future of a conflict that was supposed to be over but is instead reigniting. Having ended war here once, Colombia should not allow it to erupt again.Elizabeth Dickinson (@dickinsonbeth) is a Bogotá-based senior analyst for Colombia at the International Crisis Group. Before joining the organization in 2017, she worked for a decade as a journalist.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    El ascenso de Rodolfo Hernández cambia el juego en Colombia

    Con un discurso populista, y su verbo incendiario, Hernández podría acaparar a los votantes de la derecha que no quieren arriesgarse con Gustavo Petro, el líder de la izquierda colombiana.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — El panorama político de Colombia ha cambiado notablemente en solo 24 horas.Durante meses, los encuestadores predijeron que Gustavo Petro, un exguerrillero convertido en senador que aspira a ser el primer presidente de izquierda del país, iría a una segunda vuelta presidencial en junio contra Federico Gutiérrez, el candidato conservador que había argumentado que votar por Petro equivalía a “un salto al vacío”.En cambio, el domingo, los votantes respaldaron a Petro y a Rodolfo Hernández, un exalcalde y un próspero hombre de negocios con una plataforma populista anticorrupción cuyo estatus antisistema, sus declaraciones incendiarias y su enfoque político limitado a un solo tema han hecho que lo comparen con Donald Trump.La votación, por un izquierdista que ha hecho su carrera atacando a la clase política conservadora y por un candidato relativamente desconocido sin respaldo formal de un partido, representó un repudio al establecimiento conservador que ha gobernado Colombia durante generaciones.Pero también cambió la situación política para Petro. Ahora es Petro quien se presenta como el cambio seguro, y Hernández es el peligroso salto al vacío.“Hay cambios que no son cambios”, dijo Petro en un evento de campaña el domingo por la noche, “son suicidios”.Hernández alguna vez se definió como un seguidor de Adolf Hitler, sugirió combinar los principales ministerios para ahorrar dinero y dice que como presidente planea declarar un estado de emergencia para enfrentar la corrupción, lo que genera temores de que podría cerrar el Congreso o suspender a los alcaldes.Sin embargo, la derecha tradicional de Colombia ha comenzado a respaldarlo, trayendo consigo muchos de sus votos y haciendo que la victoria de Petro se vea cuesta arriba.El domingo, Gutiérrez, exalcalde de Medellín, la segunda ciudad más grande del país, apoyó a Hernández y dijo que el propósito era “cuidar la democracia”.Pero Fernando Posada, un politólogo, dijo que la medida también era el último esfuerzo de la derecha para bloquear a Petro, cuyo plan para rehacer la economía colombiana “pone en riesgo muchos de los intereses de la clase política tradicional”.“La derecha colombiana llegó a un escenario tan extremadamente desastroso que incluso prefieren un gobierno que no les ofrece nada con tal de que no sea Petro”, dijo Posada.Gustavo Petro acompañado por su esposa, Verónica Alcocer, y su candidata a la vicepresidencia, Francia Márquez, al término de la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Bogotá.Federico Rios para The New York TimesHernández, quien hasta hace unas pocas semanas no era muy conocido en la mayor parte del país, fue alcalde de la ciudad de Bucaramanga, ubicada en la parte norte del país. Hizo su fortuna en la construcción, edificando viviendas para personas de bajos ingresos en la década de 1990.A los 77 años, Hernández consolidó gran parte de su apoyo en TikTok, una vez abofeteó a un concejal de la ciudad frente a las cámaras y recientemente le dijo a The Washington Post que tenía un efecto “mesiánico” en sus seguidores, a quienes comparó con los secuestradores “con lavado de cerebro” que destruyeron las torres gemelas el 11 de septiembre.Cuando lo presionaron diciéndole que esa comparación era problemática, rechazó la idea. “Lo que estoy comparando es que después de entrar en ese estado, no cambias de posición. No la cambias”.Hasta hace apenas unos días, la narrativa política de Colombia parecía simple: durante generaciones, la política había estado dominada por unas pocas familias adineradas y, más recientemente, por un conservadurismo de línea dura conocido como uribismo, fundado por el poderoso líder político del país, el expresidente Álvaro Uribe.Pero la frustración de los votantes con la pobreza, la desigualdad y la inseguridad, que se vio exacerbada por la pandemia, junto con una creciente aceptación de la izquierda luego del proceso de paz firmado en 2016 con la guerrilla colombiana más grande, las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), pareció cambiar la dinámica.Para 2022, Petro, quien durante mucho tiempo ha sido el rostro combativo de la izquierda colombiana, pensó que era su momento. Y en los meses previos a las elecciones del 29 de mayo, los votantes acudieron en masa a sus propuestas: una amplia expansión de los programas sociales, detener todas las nuevas perforaciones petroleras en un país que depende de las exportaciones de petróleo y un enfoque en la justicia social.El argumento era: izquierda contra derecha, cambio contra continuidad, la élite contra el resto del país.Pero el improbable ascenso de Hernández refleja tanto un rechazo a la élite conservadora como a Petro.También revela que la narrativa nunca fue tan simple.Hernández, quien obtuvo el 28 por ciento de los votos, ha atraído a una amplia franja de votantes ansiosos por un cambio pero que nunca podría estar de acuerdo con Petro.Petro es un exguerrillero que fue miembro de un grupo rebelde llamado el Movimiento 19 de abril (M-19) en un país donde los rebeldes aterrorizaron a la población durante décadas. Y es de izquierda en una nación que comparte frontera con Venezuela, un país sumido en una crisis humanitaria por un gobierno autoritario que reivindica a la izquierda.Hernández, con su cabello anaranjado y desprolijo y su enfoque político de hombre de negocios, también ha atraído a votantes que dicen que quieren a alguien con la ambición de Trump y que no les preocupa si es propenso a la falta de tacto. (Años después de decir que era seguidor de Adolf Hitler, Hernández aclaró que quería decir que era seguidor de Albert Einstein).Federico Gutiérrez, candidato conservador de la derecha, en un mitin celebrado en Parques del Río, este mes.Nathalia Angarita para The New York TimesDos de los mayores problemas del país son la pobreza y la falta de oportunidades, y Hernández apela a las personas diciéndoles que puede ayudarlos a escapar de ambos.“Creo que él mira a Colombia como una posibilidad de crecimiento. Y en eso creo que se diferencia de los demás candidatos”, dijo Salvador Rizo, de 26 años, consultor tecnológico en Medellín. “Creo que los otros candidatos están viendo una casa que está en llamas y quieren apagar el fuego y preservar la casa. Creo que la opinión de Rodolfo es que hay una casa que puede ser un hotel enorme en el futuro”.También ha sido un crítico implacable de la corrupción, un problema crónico que algunos colombianos califican como un cáncer.Al principio, se comprometió a no aceptar dinero de campaña de entidades privadas y dice que él mismo está financiando su candidatura presidencial.“La gente política roba descaradamente”, dijo Álvaro Mejía, de 29 años, quien dirige una empresa de energía solar en Cali.Dice que prefiere a Hernández en vez de Petro, un senador desde hace muchos años, precisamente por su falta de experiencia política.La pregunta es si Hernández podrá mantener este impulso en las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta, mientras figuras políticas clave se alinean con su campaña.Minutos después de que obtuviera el segundo lugar el domingo, dos poderosas senadoras de la derecha, María Fernanda Cabal y Paloma Valencia, le prometieron su apoyo, y Posada predijo que era probable que otras lo respaldaran.Uribe, quien apoyó la candidatura de Hernández a la alcaldía en 2015, es una figura cada vez más polémica que aleja a muchos colombianos. Posada pronosticó que no apoyará a Hernández para no restarle votantes.El expresidente Álvaro Uribe en la Corte Suprema de Justicia de Bogotá, en febreroJuan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSi Hernández logra mantener el delicado equilibrio de conseguir los votos de la derecha, sin afectar su imagen, podría ser difícil que Petro logre vencerlo.Muchos analistas políticos creen que los aproximadamente 8,5 millones de votos que obtuvo Petro el domingo son su techo, y que muchos de los cinco millones de votos de Gutiérrez se sumarán a los seis millones que logró Hernández.Cuando los resultados quedaron claros, los partidarios de Hernández corrieron a la sede de su campaña en una de las principales avenidas de Bogotá, la capital.Muchos vestían camisetas, sombreros y ponchos de campaña de color amarillo brillante, que dijeron que habían comprado ellos mismos en vez de que la campaña los repartiera gratis, de acuerdo con los principios de reducción de costos de Hernández.“Nunca había visto a una persona con las características como las del ingeniero Rodolfo”, dijo Liliana Vargas, una abogada de 39 años, usando un apodo común para Hernández, quien es ingeniero civil. “Es un ser político que no es político”, dijo. “Es la primera vez que estoy totalmente emocionada de participar en unas elecciones democráticas en mi país”.Cerca de allí, Juan Sebastián Rodríguez, de 39 años, líder de la campaña de Hernández en Bogotá, dijo que el candidato era “un rockstar”.“Es un fenómeno”, dijo. “Estamos seguros de que vamos a ganar”.Petro y Hernández en las portadas de los diarios locales, el lunesYuri Cortez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesGenevieve Glatsky More

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    Rodolfo Hernández is Colombia’s Trump and He May Be Headed for the Presidential Palace

    The Colombian establishment is lining up behind Rodolfo Hernández, a populist businessman with an incendiary streak, to defeat the leftist former rebel Gustavo Petro.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Colombia’s political landscape has shifted remarkably in a matter of 24 hours.For months, pollsters predicted that Gustavo Petro, a former rebel-turned-senator making a bid to be the nation’s first leftist president, would head to a June presidential runoff against Federico Gutiérrez, a conservative establishment candidate who had argued that a vote for Mr. Petro amounted to “a leap into the void.’’Instead, on Sunday, voters gave the top two spots to Mr. Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, a former mayor and wealthy businessman with a populist, anti-corruption platform whose outsider status, incendiary statements and single-issue approach to politics have earned him comparisons to Donald Trump.The vote — for a leftist who has made a career assailing the conservative political class and for a relatively unknown candidate with no formal party backing — represented a repudiation of the conservative establishment that has governed Colombia for generations.But it also remade the political calculus for Mr. Petro. Now, it is Mr. Petro who is billing himself as the safe change, and Mr. Hernández as the dangerous leap into the void.“There are changes that are not changes,” Mr. Petro said at a campaign event on Sunday night, “they are suicides.”Mr. Hernández once called himself a follower of Adolf Hitler, has suggested combining major ministries to save money, and says that as president he plans to declare a state of emergency to deal with corruption, leading to fears that he could shut down Congress or suspend mayors.Still, Colombia’s right-wing establishment has begun lining up behind him, bringing many of their votes with them, and making a win for Mr. Petro look like an uphill climb.On Sunday, Mr. Gutiérrez, a former mayor of Medellín, the country’s second-largest city, threw his support behind Mr. Hernández, saying his intention was to “safeguard democracy.”But Fernando Posada, a political scientist, said the move was also the establishment right’s last-ditch effort to block Mr. Petro, whose plan to remake the Colombian economy “puts at risk many of the interests of the traditional political class.”“The Colombian right has reached such an extremely disastrous stage,” said Mr. Posada, “that they prefer a government that offers them nothing as long as it is not Petro.”Gustavo Petro, flanked by his wife Verónica Alcocer and vice-presidential candidate Francia Márquez at the end of the first round of presidential elections in Bogotá.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMr. Hernández, who had gained limited attention in most of the country until just a few weeks ago, is a one-time mayor of the mid-sized city of Bucaramanga in the northern part of the country. He made his fortune in construction, building low-income housing in the 1990s.At 77, Mr. Hernández built much of his support on TikTok, once slapped a city councilman on camera and recently told The Washington Post that he had a “messianic” effect on his supporters, who he compared to the “brainwashed” hijackers who destroyed the twin towers on 9/11.Pressed on whether such a comparison was problematic, he rejected the idea. “What I’m comparing is that after you get into that state, you don’t change your position. You don’t change it.”Until just a few days ago, Colombia’s political narrative seemed simple: For generations, politics had been dominated by a few wealthy families, and more recently, by a hard-line conservatism known as Uribismo, founded by the country’s powerful political kingmaker, former president Álvaro Uribe.But voter frustration with poverty, inequality and insecurity, which was exacerbated by the pandemic, along with a growing acceptance of the left following the country’s 2016 peace process with its largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, seemed to shift the dynamic.By 2022, Mr. Petro, long the combative face of the Colombian left, thought it was his moment. And in the months leading to the May 29 election, voters flocked to his proposals — a broad expansion of social programs, a halt to all new oil drilling in a country dependent on oil exports, and a focus on social justice.The story line was: left versus right, change versus continuity, the elite versus the rest of the country.But Mr. Hernández’s improbable rise reflects both a rejection of the conservative elite and of Mr. Petro.It also reveals that the narrative was never so simple.Mr. Hernández, who won 28 percent of the vote, has attracted a broad swath of voters eager for change who could never get on board with Mr. Petro.Mr. Petro is a former member of a rebel group called the M-19 in a country where rebels terrorized the population for decades. And he is a leftist in a nation that shares a border with Venezuela, a country plunged into a humanitarian crisis by authoritarians who claim the leftist banner.Mr. Hernández, with his fuzzy orange hair and businessman’s approach to politics, has also attracted voters who say they want someone with Trumpian ambition, and are not troubled if he is prone to tactlessness. (Years after saying he was a follower of Adolf Hitler, Mr. Hernández clarified that he meant to say he was a follower of Albert Einstein.)Federico Gutiérrez, a conservative establishment candidate, at a rally in Parques del Rio, this month.Nathalia Angarita for The New York TimesTwo of the country’s biggest issues are poverty and lack of opportunity, and Mr. Hernández appeals to people who say he can help them escape both.“I think that he looks at Colombia as a possibility of growth. And that’s how I think that he differs from the other candidates,” said Salvador Rizo, 26, a tech consultant in Medellín. “I think that the other candidates are watching a house that is on fire and they want to extinguish that fire and reveal the house. What I think the view of Rodolfo is: That there’s a house that can be a massive hotel in the future.”He has also been a relentless critic of corruption, a chronic issue that some Colombians call a cancer.Early on, he made a pledge not to take campaign money from private entities, and says he is funding his presidential bid himself.“Political people steal shamelessly,” said Álvaro Mejía, 29, who runs a solar energy company in Cali.He says he prefers Mr. Hernández to Mr. Petro, a longtime senator, precisely because of his lack of political experience.The question is whether Mr. Hernández will be able to maintain that outsider status in the weeks leading up to the runoff, as key political figures align themselves to his campaign.Just minutes after he won second place on Sunday, two powerful right-wing senators, María Fernanda Cabal and Paloma Valencia, pledged their support for him, and Mr. Posada predicted that others were likely to follow.Mr. Uribe, who backed Mr. Hernández’s run for mayor in 2015, is an increasingly polemic figure who turns off many Colombians. Mr. Posada predicted that he would not throw his weight behind Mr. Hernández, so as not to cost him voters.Former President Álvaro Uribe at the Supreme Court in Bogotá, in February.Juan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIf Mr. Hernández can walk that difficult line — courting the establishment’s votes without tarnishing his image — it could be difficult for Mr. Petro to beat him.Many political analysts believe that the roughly 8.5 million votes Mr. Petro got on Sunday is his ceiling, and that many of Mr. Gutiérrez’s five million votes will be added to the six million Mr. Hernández received.As the results became clear, Mr. Hernández’s supporters rushed to his campaign headquarters on one of the main avenues in Bogotá, the capital.Many wore bright yellow campaign T-shirts, hats and ponchos, which they said they’d bought themselves instead of being handed out free by the campaign, in keeping with Mr. Hernández’s cost-cutting principles.“I have never seen a person with characteristics like those of the engineer Rodolfo,” said Liliana Vargas, a 39-year old lawyer, using a common nickname for Mr. Hernández, who is a civil engineer. “He is a political being who is not a politician,” she said. “It is the first time that I am totally excited to participate in a democratic election in my country.”Nearby, Juan Sebastián Rodríguez, 39, a leader of Mr. Hernández’s Bogotá campaign, called the candidate “a rock star.”“He is a phenomenon,” he said. “We are sure that we are going to win.”Mr. Petro and Mr. Hernández on the front pages of local newspapers on Monday.Yuri Cortez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesGenevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá. 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