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    An Iran Strategy for Trump

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    Nobody, perhaps even President Trump himself, knows for sure whether the United States will wind up joining Israel in launching military strikes on Iran. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he said on Wednesday. But with a third U.S. aircraft carrier on its way to the region and the president calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” the chance of war seems higher than ever — particularly now that Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has gruffly rebuffed Trump’s demand.If the U.S. does attack, the most obvious target will be the Fordo nuclear site, a deeply buried facility where Iran enriches uranium and which, by most reports, can be knocked out only by a 15-ton bomb known as a Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP. Less well known but surely on the U.S. target list is a new, still unfinished subterranean facility south of Iran’s main (and now largely destroyed) enrichment plant at Natanz. American pilots would also almost certainly join their Israeli counterparts in attacking Iranian ballistic missile launchers and bases.And then what? Nobody doubts the U.S. can do a lot of damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, at least in the short term. What comes afterward is harder to predict.Proponents of an American strike believe that we have no realistic choice other than to help Israel do as thorough a job as possible in setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions not just for months but years — more than enough time to allow benign forces to shape events, including the possibility of Iranians overthrowing their widely detested rulers.By contrast, skeptics fear that the lessons Iran’s leaders will draw from an American attack is that they should have gotten a bomb much sooner — and that the appropriate response to such an attack is to be more repressive at home and less receptive to diplomatic overtures from abroad. Skeptics also expect that Iran will respond to an attack by ramping up its malign regional activities, not least to embroil the U.S. in another Middle East war the Trump administration desperately wants to avoid.I’m with the proponents. A nuclear-armed Iran, fielding missiles of ever-growing reach, is both an unacceptable threat to U.S. security and a consequential failure of U.S. deterrence. After years of Iran’s prevarications, which led even the Biden administration to give up on diplomacy, to say nothing of Iran’s cheating on its legal commitments — detailed last month in a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency — the world had run out of plausible nonmilitary options to prevent the regime from going nuclear.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Iran Has Sustained Blow After Blow Since October 2023

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      Iran is often portrayed as one of the world’s most dangerous actors. But with attacks on its defenses, nuclear sites and proxy militias, Israel has exposed a compromised and weakened adversary.An airstrike on an Iranian Embassy building in Syria last year that killed several senior Iranian commanders. The assassination three months later of one of Iran’s top partners while he was visiting Tehran, the Iranian capital. The Israeli bombings of Iranian air defenses in April and October 2024. The systematic decimation or defeat of Iran’s strongest allies around the Middle East, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and former President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.Iran is often portrayed as one of the world’s most dangerous villains, a rogue state whose growing nuclear program and shadowy military capabilities threaten Israel, the United States and beyond. But the country has suffered blow after blow since war erupted between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, soon drawing in Hezbollah and then Iran itself.Those losses culminated on Friday in the start of an Israeli campaign that has gone after targets across Iran, crippled its air defenses and killed several of its top military commanders and a number of prominent nuclear scientists. The new round of conflict has killed hundreds of people in Iran and at least 24 in Israel.Earlier attacks and assassinations in Iran humiliated Tehran, causing recriminations among military officials and pushing it to launch retaliatory barrages against Israel. But the renewed fighting has shown, as never before, just how compromised and weak Iranian forces really are.“Iran has basically demonstrated again that it was outgunned and outsmarted again by Israel,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.Lacking anything close to the conventional military might of Israel or the United States, its longtime enemies, Iran’s strategy for protecting itself had for years rested on the idea that the combination of its partners in the region and its own missile capabilities would be enough to deter attacks on Iranian soil.Hezbollah sat on Israel’s northern border. Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq could target American military installations there. And Tehran could launch a barrage of missiles and drones into Israel that would potentially overwhelm Israeli air defenses and shatter the country’s sense of security.Or so the thinking went.Instead, Israel demolished Hezbollah in a war on Lebanon last year, then turned the same playbook on Iran. Israeli intelligence managed to penetrate Iran so thoroughly that Israel was able to launch drone attacks on Iranian targets from inside Iran on Friday and killed some of the most senior figures in the Iranian military’s chain of command.That in turn delayed Iran’s retaliatory response, giving Israel time to prepare for Iran’s missiles, and to launch more attacks. More

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      Israeli Strikes Kill IRGC Leader and Major Nuclear Scientists

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      Israel has long targeted Iranian officials for assassination. But these attacks marked a significant shift in tactics, targeting multiple officials at once inside Iran.Israel’s wave of attacks in Iran overnight on Friday targeted top Iranian officials and appeared to successfully kill the leader of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in a shocking series of strikes that aimed to deal significant blows to Iran’s security leadership.Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was killed in an Israeli strike within the Iranian capital of Tehran, according to Tasnim, a semiofficial news site affiliated with the government. As leader of the force, Mr. Salami had helped oversee the relationship with Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, which had long menaced Israel.Tasnim also reported that at least three other senior Iranian leaders were thought to have been killed. They were Gholamali Rashid, the deputy commander of the Iranian armed forces; Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji, an Iranian physicist; and Fereydoun Abbasi, an Iranian nuclear scientist.Israel has long sought to assassinate Iranian security chiefs and nuclear scientists. But it has generally picked them off one by one, often while they were outside Iranian territory in Lebanon or Syria.The attacks early on Friday appeared to be a significant shift in tactics. Not only did they target Iran’s nuclear program and air defenses, the Israeli attacks also sought to eliminate many senior members of the Iranian security establishment at once.Israel also targeted Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, as well as other senior commanders in the Guards Corps and leading scientists in the country’s nuclear program, according to two Israeli defense officials familiar with the matter. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.There was no immediate comment from Iranian officials on Mr. Bagheri’s condition. More

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      Israel’s Military Says It Struck Beirut’s Suburbs

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      The attack was the second in less than a week, raising fears that a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah could unravel.The Israeli military said early Tuesday that it had conducted a strike on the southern outskirts of Beirut, the second attack near Lebanon’s capital in less than a week.Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire in November, raising hopes that Lebanon’s deadliest war in decades could be over. But the recent strikes have prompted fears that the truce could unravel.The Israeli military said the latest strike, in the Dahiya area in Beirut’s southern suburbs, had targeted a Hezbollah operative who had directed and assisted Hamas in planning a “significant and imminent” attack against Israel.Israel acted to eliminate the operative because he posed an “immediate threat,” the military said on social media. It added that the Dahiya area was a key stronghold for Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group and political party backed by Iran.Hezbollah made no immediate comment on the strikes on its semiofficial page on Telegram, a social media platform.On Friday, the Israeli military launched airstrikes in the same area, and ordered residents in a densely populated neighborhood to evacuate. The attack was hours after rockets were fired at northern Israel from Lebanese territory.Hezbollah denied any involvement in that attack on Israel and said it remained committed to the cease-fire. The Israeli military said it had targeted a site that stored Hezbollah’s drones.Also on Friday, at least three people were killed in separate Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones at Israeli positions, in solidarity with its Palestinian ally, after Hamas led an attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, igniting the war in Gaza. The fighting escalated into full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, with an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon. More

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      Rockets Fired From Lebanon Prompt Israeli Strikes

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      The volley broke months of relative quiet in northern Israel after a U.S.-backed truce. Israel retaliated by attacking sites it said were linked to Hezbollah.Israeli forces struck sites in southern Lebanon on Saturday that it said were linked to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, hours after rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel for the first time in months.The attacks were the latest example of how the renewed Israeli offensive in Gaza was rippling across the Middle East. They also disrupted months of relative calm in northern Israel, where residents displaced by more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah have begun returning home.The Israeli military said that it had shot down three rockets from Lebanon, and there were no reports of casualties. The volley was the first of its kind since last November, when Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire brokered by the United States and France.Hezbollah denied any involvement in the rocket fire, which followed Israel’s resumed offensive in Gaza this week against the Lebanese group’s Palestinian ally Hamas. Those Israeli attacks have already killed more than 600 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.After the Hamas-led assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which ignited the Gaza war, the militant group’s allies across the Middle East began attacking Israel in solidarity. Last year, that escalated to a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah, in which Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s leadership and launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon.Under the terms of the cease-fire, the Lebanese government is supposed to prevent armed groups like Hezbollah from attacking Israel from Lebanon.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Israel Strikes Syria Hours After Country’s Leader Demands Withdrawal

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      The attacks in southern Syria are part of a new policy aimed at protecting what Israel calls its “security zone” in the region. Syria’s new government has condemned that policy.The Israeli military said it had struck sites in southern Syria on Tuesday, just hours after the new Syrian leadership demanded that Israel withdraw from territory it has seized since the fall of the Assad regime.The attacks were aimed at “military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons,” the Israeli military said in a statement. It added, “The presence of military assets and forces in the southern part of Syria constitutes a threat” to Israeli citizens.Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister, said in a statement late on Tuesday that the attacks were part of a “new policy” of ensuring a “demilitarized southern Syria.” He added that “any attempt” by either Syrian forces or militant groups to establish a presence in what Israel has deemed its “security zone” in the region “will be met with fire.”That policy was announced by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on Sunday in a speech demanding “the complete demilitarization” of southern Syria. The speech and Israel’s actions drew the condemnation of Syria’s new government on Tuesday.The country’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, presided over a national unity conference on Tuesday that was intended to build consensus around the nation’s political and economic future. It concluded with a statement decrying Israeli incursions in Syria and rejecting “the provocative statements of the Israeli prime minister.”Syria’s new government said Israel was violating Syria’s sovereignty and a longstanding agreement, and called on the international community to pressure Israel “to stop the aggression.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What to Know About the Saudi Crown Prince’s Role in Global Diplomacy

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      The kingdom’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was once shunned in diplomatic circles. Now he is playing an important role in negotiations over Gaza and Ukraine.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has long angled to play a leading role on the world stage, was at the diplomatic center this week of two of the globe’s most pressing crises.On Monday, Prince Mohammed met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to discuss both the future of Gaza and the Ukraine war. The following day in Riyadh, there were friendly talks between Russia and the United States.And on Friday, the kingdom is expected to host Arab officials to plan for the reconstruction of Gaza.That Saudi Arabia is the setting for talks with such monumental stakes stands as further evidence that the crown prince — known by his initials M.B.S. — is well on his way to achieving his goal of becoming a global power player.The meetings represent a remarkable turnabout for Prince Mohammed, the oil-rich Gulf kingdom’s de facto leader who was shunned for a time in diplomatic circles. He was accused of severe human rights abuses that he has denied, including approving the killing in 2018 of the Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident.Here is what to know about the crown prince’s past actions and his plans for Saudi Arabia.A new vision for the kingdomIn 2016, about a year after his father, King Salman, ascended the throne, Prince Mohammed, then a deputy crown prince, introduced Vision 2030. The bold plan aimed to diversify the kingdom’s economy and make it less reliant on oil. It included increasing the number of Saudis in private employment, including women; soliciting foreign investment; and selling shares of Saudi Aramco, the state oil monopoly, to raise capital to invest in other sectors, like tourism.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Israel Says It Will Keep Troops ‘Temporarily’ in 5 Points in Lebanon

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      The announcement raised the specter of renewed fighting in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia.The Israeli military said on Monday that it will keep forces in five locations in southern Lebanon after a deadline for its full withdrawal lapses on Tuesday. The announcement raised fears of a resurgence in violence in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. After more than a year of war, the two sides reached a cease-fire in late November that was contingent on both Israel and Hezbollah ceding control of southern Lebanon to the Lebanese military by the end of January. Hezbollah had long dominated the region, while Israel had captured large parts of it after invading Lebanon in September.In late January, mediators announced a three-week extension to that agreement, giving Israel more time to complete its withdrawal. The truce has frequently been punctured by bursts of violence — including an Israeli airstrike on Monday that killed a Hamas leader in southern Lebanon — but neither side has reverted to full-scale war.Now, the specter of renewed conflict looms once more after the Israeli military announced that it will keep some troops in Lebanon beyond the Feb. 18 deadline, potentially preventing some Lebanese civilians from returning home.“We will leave small amounts of troops deployed temporarily in five strategic points along the border in Lebanon so we can continue to defend our residents and to make sure there’s no immediate threat,” said Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman, in a briefing for reporters on Monday afternoon.Colonel Shoshani named several locations spread along most of the length of the 75-mile border, including places across the border from Israeli villages that were badly damaged by Hezbollah rocket fire during the war. He said that Hezbollah had not lived up to its own side of the November agreement and still posed a threat to Israeli residents in those areas. He declined to say how long the occupation would last. It is unclear to what extent Hezbollah has a presence in those areas.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Netanyahu Tells Trump Israel Must ‘Complete Its Victory’

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      Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said he had told President-elect Donald J. Trump in a telephone conversation over the weekend that Israel needed to “complete its victory” over Iranian proxies and bring back hostages held in Gaza.Mr. Netanyahu, who described Mr. Trump as a friend, said in a statement on Sunday that their latest discussion had been “very friendly, warm and important.” The Israeli prime minister has been quick to cultivate his relationship with Mr. Trump, and was among the first leaders to call him after his victory in November.Many analysts have said that the incoming president, who has called for a halt to the war in Gaza, is broadly supportive of the Israeli government’s goal of ending the conflict with Hamas on its terms. This month, Mr. Trump threatened “hell to pay” if the hostages in Gaza were not freed before his inauguration on Jan. 20, prompting praise from Mr. Netanyahu, who said the statement added to pressure on Hamas.Mr. Netanyahu said that he had explained to Mr. Trump in their call on Saturday that Israel had dealt “a tough blow” to both the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and to Hamas, which attacked Israel in October 2023, setting off the war in Gaza. Both groups have been supported by Iran. Mr. Trump did not immediately comment on the call.Israel has largely destroyed Hamas as a military organization, and killed its leader, Yahya Sinwar, in an offensive that has shattered the enclave and killed tens of thousands of people. It also launched an intense campaign of airstrikes and ground attacks in Lebanon that severely weakened Hezbollah, killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The two sides began observing a cease-fire last month. In recent days, amid the fall of Syria’s longtime leader, Bashar al-Assad, Israeli forces have also moved into Syria beyond the Golan Heights and launched airstrikes on military targets in that country.Mr. Netanyahu said he had told Mr. Trump that Israel was “committed to preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament” and used the statement to repeat a warning to Hezbollah and Iran that Israel “will continue acting against you as much as necessary, on any front and at any time.”The Biden administration, in its final weeks, has intensified efforts to reach a cease-fire in Gaza. The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said last week that the administration aimed to seal a deal this month that would halt fighting in exchange for a return of hostages, although months of talks involving Israel and Hamas have failed to reach a breakthrough. More