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    How Many Billionaires Are There, Anyway?

    Listen to This ArticleAudio Recording by AudmTo hear more audio stories from publications like The New York Times, download Audm for iPhone or Android.In 1981, Malcolm Forbes, the eccentric and fabulously wealthy magazine publisher, came to his editors with a request: Could they pull together a special issue about the 400 richest Americans? The idea was inspired by Caroline Schermerhorn Astor, the doyenne of Gilded Age New York, who regularly hosted the city’s high society in her Fifth Avenue ballroom, which was said to fit about 400 people. It’s quite possible Forbes saw something of himself in Astor. This was a different era of magazine publishing; Forbes — who wound up making the cut on his own list — lived like a sultan. He entertained celebrities and politicians on a 126-foot yacht called the Highlander. By the end of his run he owned a chateau in Normandy, 12 Fabergé eggs and a collection of hot-air balloons in fantastical designs — one shaped like the Sphinx, one like a bust of Beethoven, one like a Fabergé egg, one like the chateau in Normandy and, of course, one in the image of a sultan, about as tall as his yacht was long.According to a brief history of the magazine written by Malcolm Forbes Jr., better known as Steve, the editorial staff was not pleased with his father’s idea. They conducted a feasibility study and told him it wouldn’t be possible to figure out who these 400 people were. The elder Forbes replied if they wouldn’t do it, he’d find some other journalists who could. “Edit capitulated,” writes his son. The resulting reporting project took a year, dozens of flights and thousands of interviews. At the top of the very first Forbes 400 list was Daniel K. Ludwig, a shipping magnate, estimated by the magazine to be worth more than $2 billion.If you simply adjusted for inflation, that’s now at least $5.8 billion, a fortune that would land Ludwig in a seven-way tie for the 182nd spot on the last Forbes 400 list, alongside Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx; Gary Rollins, chief executive of Rollins, Inc., which owns several pest-control companies; and who could forget Peter Gassner, the head of a cloud-software company called Veeva. Fortunes at this tier hardly seem to merit media coverage anymore. One of Gassner’s most in-depth profiles was published on the blog of the Hacienda Business Park in Pleasanton, Calif., where Veeva keeps its offices. He does not own any hot-air balloons.Since 1987, Forbes has published another list, which started smaller but has grown to be much larger: the World’s Billionaires List. The magazine just published this year’s edition, with a staggering 2,668 names. The task of gathering information for both lists is overseen by Kerry Dolan, an editor at Forbes, in a highly collaborative effort that involves at least 92 different reporters from all over the organization, including from the company’s many internationally licensed editions — Russia, Poland, India and more, each a testament to the triumph of globalized capitalism. Dolan has worked at Forbes for nearly three decades, starting in 1994 covering Latin America, which involved helping out on the billionaires list too. Compiling it was far more laborious back then: “I couldn’t just go online and look at the São Paulo stock exchange and figure out who owned what,” Dolan says. But a financial magazine down in Brazil used to put out a book about all the biggest companies in the country, and she would have a contact in Brazil ship it to her in the States. That would reveal financial information on these companies, and she could go from there.The process has become easier in one sense, because our access to information is so much better; and harder, because there are so many more billionaires. The 2022 World’s Billionaires list, for example, grew by 573 names compared with the last prepandemic list, in 2020. That year, the world was minting new billionaires at a rate, Forbes noted, of about one every 17 hours. At the top of the new list is Elon Musk, with an estimated net worth of $219 billion; behind him is Jeff Bezos, with $171 billion. From there, it goes like this: Bernard Arnault and family ($158 billion), Bill Gates ($129 billion), Warren Buffett ($118 billion), Larry Page ($111 billion), Sergey Brin ($107 billion), Larry Ellison ($106 billion), Steve Ballmer ($91.4 billion) and Mukesh Ambani ($90.7 billion), the richest man in Asia and, I confess, the highest-ranked person on the list I’d never heard of.If you continue down, keeping your eyes on the Americans, most are familiar, names you know from the vast fortunes cast off by Silicon Valley, or Walmart (the wealthiest Walton heirs have around $65 billion each), or Nike ($47.3 billion), or divorcing Jeff Bezos ($43.6 billion), or living longer than Sheldon Adelson ($27.5 billion). But eventually, you start to encounter less-familiar names: Thomas Peterffy, who immigrated from communist Hungary and pioneered computerized stock trading (No. 80, $20.1 billion); Robert Pera, who founded something called Ubiquiti Networks and — this was fun to learn — went to the same state college that I did (No. 127, $14.6 billion); speaking of college, there’s Dustin Moskovitz, who was roommates at Harvard with another guy who had a cool idea for a social network (No. 167, $11.5 billion). Before long, you’re down with the Peter Gassners of the world, and there are a lot of them — America has some 735 billionaires now according to Forbes, collectively worth more than $4.7 trillion. A decade ago, Forbes counted only (“only”) 424. A decade before that, 243. They keep multiplying, and their collective wealth grows, even, or especially, as the rest of us fall behind.Illustration by Andrew RaeSo where are they all coming from? Depends who you ask. An optimist might tell you that an economy producing so many billionaires is an economy that’s growing, which is certainly true of ours. Nothing wrong with that. In the 1950s, the economist Simon Kuznets popularized the idea that inequality was an unfortunate but self-regulating side effect of economic growth; whenever it got too high, Kuznets reasoned, the political process would rein it in. This was known as the Kuznets curve, a parabola that showed inequality soaring before being slowly brought back to Earth through redistribution. Kuznets believed that the richest societies would eventually be the most equal.But in the last 12 years, the American political system has delivered Citizens United, a top marginal tax rate of 37 percent (down from a high of 94 percent in Kuznets’s day) and a billionaire president openly hostile to the democratic process — along with 332 new billionaires. The Kuznets curve has fallen out of favor, too, replaced by something called the Kuznets wave, which shows successive peaks and valleys of inequality. Branko Milanovic, the economist who put forward this revised model, thinks it might take at least a generation to tamp down the current peak.In his book “Ages of American Capitalism,” the University of Chicago historian Jonathan Levy describes the era of capitalism we live in as the Age of Chaos: a time in which capital has become more footloose, liquid and volatile, constantly flowing into and out of booms and busts, in contrast to the staid order — and widely shared prosperity — that characterized the industrial postwar economy. Levy begins the story in 1981, the same year Forbes thought of his list. That was the year the Federal Reserve, under its chairman, Paul Volcker, raised interest rates to 20 percent with the goal of ending inflation. Volcker’s Fed succeeded at that, but the decision, Levy notes, had far-reaching consequences besides, accelerating America’s transition away from the production of goods to a form of capitalism never seen before. The dollar skyrocketed in value, making American exports even less attractive and imports even cheaper; many factories that remained profitable were closed, because compared with the incredible returns money could earn in such a high-rate environment, they simply weren’t profitable enough. When the Fed began to loosen its grip, the widely available credit unleashed a speculative bonanza, which benefited a newly empowered corporate class that felt little obligation to the work force and profound obligations to shareholders.The Great ReadMore fascinating tales you can’t help but read all the way to the end.Brash and funny, Emily Nunn uses her popular Substack newsletter, The Department of Salad, to hold forth about ageism, politics and, oh yes, leafy greens.For years, a virus hunter worried about animal markets causing a pandemic. Now he’s at the center of the debate over Covid’s origins.A few years ago, Nicola Coughlan was working in an optician’s office in Ireland. Now, with “Bridgerton” and “Derry Girls,” she’s starring in two of the most beloved shows on Netflix.Typically the economy expands when investments are made in productivity, but this expansion was different: It was, Levy writes, “the only one on record, before or since, in which fixed investment as a share of G.D.P. declined.” In other words, our industrialists were investing less in productive stuff — ships, factories, trucks — while making more money doing so. In fact, they were often tearing that stuff up and shipping it abroad; this was the age of the corporate raiders, who would book enormous profits while putting Americans out of work. You can see this, in crude terms, as the birth of the Wall Street-Main Street divide: a severing of the finance industry from the “real” economy.This shift to a highly financialized, postindustrial economy was helped along by the Reagan administration, which deregulated banking, cut the top income tax rate to 28 percent from 70 percent and took aim at organized labor — a political scapegoat for the sluggish, inflationary economy of the ’70s. Computer technology and the rise of the developing world would amplify and accelerate all these trends, turning the United States into a sort of frontal cortex for the globalizing economy. Just as important, the tech revolution created new ways for entrepreneurs to amass enormous fortunes: Software is by no means cheap to develop, but it requires fewer workers and less fixed investment, and can be reproduced and shipped around the world instantaneously and at practically no cost. Consider that the powerhouse of 20th-century capitalism, Ford Motors, now employs about 183,000 people and has a market capitalization close to $68 billion; Google employs about 156,000 people and has a market cap of around $1.8 trillion. This new economy would be run by, and for, knowledge workers, who would reap most of the gains, and therefore have more money to spend on services — a sector that would come to sort of, but never fully, replace the manufacturing this transformation did away with.“During the Reagan years,” Levy writes, “something new and distinctive emerged that has persisted down to this day: a capitalism dominated by asset price appreciation.” That is, an economy in which the rising price of assets — stocks, bonds, real estate — would be, somewhat counterintuitively, a fuel for economic growth. It has been a good time, in other words, to own a lot of assets. And owning assets is mostly what billionaires do.In his book “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” the French economist Thomas Piketty notes that the new economic order has made it difficult for the superrich not to get richer: “Past a certain threshold,” he writes, “all large fortunes, whether inherited or entrepreneurial in origin, grow at extremely high rates, regardless of whether the owner of the fortune works or not.” He uses the examples of Bill Gates and Liliane Bettencourt, the heiress to the L’Oréal fortune. Bettencourt “never worked a day in her life,” Piketty writes, but her fortune and Gates’s each grew by an annual rate of about 13 percent from 1990 to 2010. “Once a fortune is established, the capital grows according to a dynamic of its own,” Piketty notes, adding that bigger fortunes tend to grow faster — no matter how extravagant, their owners’ living expenses are still such a small proportion of the returns that even more is left over for reinvestment.Piketty was writing in 2013, while the economy was still recovering from the financial crisis of 2008. That recovery was buoyed by several years of near-zero interest rates, kept there by the Fed on the theory that, with credit widely available, the economy would regain its health. But low interest rates do two things: They push investors into riskier territory seeking better returns (and ideally creating jobs in the process); and they inflate the value of assets. Private equity and venture capital benefited greatly from this low-rate environment, helping both Silicon Valley and the financial engineers of Wall Street clean up once more. Even in less-dynamic sectors of the economy, the cheap money enabled an explosion in stock buybacks, some $6.3 trillion worth during the 2010s, or about 4 percent of our G.D.P. over the same period — more than we currently spend on defense. This, too, made asset owners richer.The Trump years supercharged another bull market that would be supercharged again, paradoxically, by the Covid pandemic. When the Fed and Congress stepped in to prop up markets and assist the economy, they fueled yet another boom in asset prices — this time with more everyday Americans trying to get a piece of it, investing in everything from Tesla options to JPEGs of apes. The retail investors have seen winners and losers among them, while the billionaire class as a whole has absolutely flourished. Over the last five years, Jeff Bezos’ fortune has more than doubled; Elon Musk’s, fueled in part by retail investor exuberance, has grown by a factor of 20.Illustration by Andrew RaeNothing special happens when you become a billionaire. There isn’t a little red light that flips on at I.R.S. headquarters. At the low end, it’s not even a stable status; market fluctuations push people in and out of billionairedom every day. What’s incredible is how little information we have a right to know about them, these 735 Americans who have amassed, at minimum, the G.D.P. of a small island nation. We can know only what they share — or can’t hide — from journalists. And certainly some are better at hiding than others.I asked Dolan what her profile is of a billionaire whom she’d never find. She told me it’s someone who quietly sold a stake in a business for, say, $250 million in the ’90s, then invested it well. Today, a guy like that could use his wealth to do whatever he wanted: buy truckloads of Nazi memorabilia, try to persuade your mayor to privatize the city’s sewers or maybe both, and you’d be none the wiser. And in fact, he wouldn’t even have had to be all that smart with his money. If he parked $250 million in an S.&P. tracking index fund in 1992 and left it alone, he’d be worth more than $4 billion today. (Dolan cautioned that no one would be quite crazy enough to put all his money in the market; nevertheless.) He would have slipped through the billion-dollar barrier like an Olympic diver. And now he’s just a guy with an insane Schwab account, some interesting ideas about sewage treatment and the world’s largest collection of authentic Totenkopf rings.The easiest sort of billionaire for Dolan to handle is one whose wealth derives from his ownership stake in a publicly traded company, probably one he founded, though possibly one he inherited. Anyone who owns more than 5 percent of a company’s shares must disclose that fact, along with the exact number of shares they hold. But once you’re past what’s discoverable in the public markets, these figures are pretty much just a combination of reporting and educated guesses. Many billionaires, for example, have equity in companies that have not yet and may never make an I.P.O., at least not at their current valuations; if they do, they may make even more. Many own stakes in regular old privately held companies that are worth billions, selling shoes (New Balance), or hardware (Menards), or candy (Mars) — all of these have created billionaires. To arrive at a value for these firms, Forbes compares them to similar companies that are publicly traded. All alleged billionaires are given an opportunity to comment on the magazine’s claims. Some share more detailed information; most don’t.In 2012, Bloomberg started a billionaires index of its own by hiring reporters from Forbes. It now covers the top 500 in the world, and updates every day. Forbes, too, has a live ranking of billionaires that updates with the markets, and just a quick glance at the top 10 shows considerable differences in the estimates. Bloomberg agrees that Musk is now the wealthiest man on the planet, for example, but estimates his net worth to be about $15 billion lower than Forbes does. By the No. 7 spot, the rankings diverge, and Bloomberg places Sergey Brin ($119 billion) where Forbes has Larry Ellison ($115.7 billion).Some differences between the Forbes and Bloomberg lists are simply products of different reporting and differing methodologies. Bloomberg’s methodology is considerably more transparent than Forbes’s, but its published list is one-fifth the size of the Forbes list (for now) and its newsroom much bigger. For each of the 500 billionaires, Bloomberg offers a one-to-five-star ranking based on its confidence in the estimate, with those who cooperate with the reporting process and whose assets are held mostly in publicly traded companies getting five stars (only a handful have the honor), and those whose assets are hidden or illiquid scoring lower. And yet, for all its precision, Bloomberg’s list has one intentional flaw: It does not contain Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg L.P., a distinction that has made him a billionaire many times over. Some 82 times, to be exact, at least according to the latest numbers from Forbes.Today, Bloomberg’s Wealth desk is run by an Englishman named Pierre Paulden, who oversees more than 25 reporters and editors, though the team often taps into the organization’s broader newsroom of 2,700. Paulden, like Dolan, has noticed over the years that fewer and fewer billionaires want to be discovered. In fact, when unknowns do announce themselves to the press as billionaires, Paulden and his team regard their claims with great caution: “Most of the time now, the type of fortune that we’re trying to find, they don’t really want you there,” he says.Paulden’s desk has turned up some enormous hidden fortunes in recent years. They dug into Leo KoGuan, a Singaporean businessman, after he went on Twitter one day and claimed that he was the third-biggest shareholder in Tesla. “And then he went dark,” Paulden says. He eventually resurfaced, and they were able to confirm his holdings, in what Paulden calls a “global effort,” both by looking at his financial records and by talking to his business associates. Similarly, Bloomberg broke the news that Changpeng Zhao, the chief executive of the crypto exchange Binance, was much richer than anyone knew: He was the 11th-richest person on the planet. When they published the story, they estimated his fortune to be $96 billion, noting that it was most likely higher: They didn’t even include any of his personal crypto holdings in the figure.Both Bloomberg and Forbes consider themselves conservative in their estimates of billionaire wealth. And in fact, there exists yet another billionaire census, done by a research company called Wealth-X, that is considerably less so. In 2021, it counted 927 billionaires in the United States — some 203 more than Forbes did. It doesn’t name any of them. Perhaps they’re right about these 203 unnamed billionaires. Perhaps not. It’s frustrating to not know — to know you can never know for sure — but even more frustrating to know that knowing wouldn’t change a thing about it.Illustration by Andrew RaeLast summer I was wandering around the neighborhood where I grew up in San Francisco, one substantially changed over the last decade, like every corner of that city, by the enormous fortunes generated in Silicon Valley. San Francisco is now home to 81 billionaires, at least according to Wealth-X. That’s almost two per square mile, or about one for every 10,000 residents — the highest concentration in the world. As I was walking, I came across a homemade sign hung in the window of an old Edwardian. It read: NO BILLIONAIRES! $999,999,999.99 IS ENOUGH ALREADY! The sentiment was comically San Franciscan: stridently in line with contemporary liberal values, and at the same time openly tolerant of extreme inequality. Why would it be OK for someone to have $999 million and not a billion? What really happens when that last penny pushes them over the line?It can feel as if we live in an era defined by rage at billionaires, but most Americans actually don’t have much appetite to eat the rich. We did, quite recently, elect a billionaire to the presidency. In January 2020 and then again in July of last year, Pew surveyed Americans to see if they thought billionaires were good for the country, bad for the country or neither. In 2020, 58 percent of respondents said they were neither. A year and a half into the pandemic, the number had barely budged (it dropped to 55 percent, within the margin of error). Some 29 percent think they’re bad; 15 percent think they’re good. It’s not exactly October 1917 out there.Still, one cohort stood out: 18-to-29 year olds. Fully 50 percent of them believe billionaires are bad for the country. And is it any surprise? This is a generation that has grown up paddling in the chop of the economy that produced all this disordered wealth: working (or failing to find work) in industries that have been financially engineered into ruin by the fleece-vest guys of Midtown or upended by software that made some nerd so rich his grandchildren’s grandchildren will live like princelings, and either way paying obscene rents to millionaire landlords who were smart enough to be born 20 years before them. Billionaires are, from this perspective, the purest distillation of the brutality and stupidity of arranging a society this way.As the ultrawealthy have multiplied, some Americans have drifted toward a sort of billionaire Gnosticism, a sense that we live in a fallen world run by a demonic group of plutocrats. On the right, you have the whole unseemly George Soros thing, in which one man is imagined to be the devious puppet master behind everything from Central American migrant caravans to the George Floyd protests. Though not personally a billionaire, Klaus Schwab, the head of the World Economic Forum at Davos, has been reimagined as a sort of Bond villain serving their interests, plotting to make you live on cricket meat as part of something called the Great Reset. On the left, the disturbing revelations about Jeffrey Epstein, and his connections to several billionaires, have led to fevered speculation about the sources of his wealth and the circumstances surrounding his pretrial suicide.But you don’t need to think of any individual billionaire as evil to find the sheer concentration of power they have disturbing. On the contrary, one of the scariest things about our billionaires is that they’re really just people, with all the frailty that entails. Think about Musk’s desperate outing as an “S.N.L.” host. Or Gates’s lame efforts at dating in middle age. Bezos’ corny sexting. Zuckerberg’s uncanny approximations of normal behavior. Tom Steyer’s and Bloomberg’s doomed presidential campaigns, both in the same cycle, both to unseat another billionaire who lost anyway. There really are some things money can’t buy, and our billionaires demonstrate this just as often as they prove the converse.Of course, there is also a lot that money can buy. Not just yachts and Picassos but also lawyers, politicians, silence. You can finance a lawsuit against a website you don’t like, and make it disappear. You can commission a yacht so big that it can’t get to sea unless you disassemble a bridge; you can offer to cover the costs of bridge disassembly. You can fund a libertarian uprising against the sitting president and derail his agenda. You can launch a car into space. There’s a very good reason the genie forbids wishing for unlimited wishes.I witnessed the dizzying effects of this caprice firsthand about a decade ago. I was working at a sceney restaurant in Manhattan when an ultrawealthy customer came in twice in the span of about a month. I was told at the time that he was a billionaire, though I can’t say for sure whether he really was. He certainly seemed like it. On the first occasion, he spent something like $10,000 on wine, tipping 20 percent on top of that, adding some $2,000 to the tip pool. Each waiter made $600 that night. It nearly covered my rent for the month.Then, not long after, he sat down in one of my banquettes. This caused a small flurry of action: The maître d’ let me know who he was, and the sommelier urged me to send him over as soon as he expressed any curiosity about wine. I went over and told him and his companion about the night’s specials and took their order. I’ll never forget what he asked for: the burger. Anything to drink? I asked, still anticipating victory. Yes, he said. A glass of the cabernet.I think he spent about $100 that night, as was his right. Because in addition to being insanely wealthy, he was also just some guy. And sometimes all a guy wants is a cheeseburger and a drink.The issue with billionaires is not that they’re sociopaths, though certainly some are. It’s that their power comes with no accountability. They dwell — or don’t dwell, as is often the case — above the clouds in supertall skyscrapers. They fly to private islands on private jets and do God-knows-what there. Their yachts remind us that, no matter what the paperwork says, they’re citizens of no nation; that if we try to fix them in place, they can just go elsewhere. They become enamored of certain ideas — fixing African agriculture, resurrecting von Mises and Hayek, terraforming Mars, being the president — and can spend nearly unlimited sums in the pursuit of making them a reality.Even if they fail at any or all of it, they will remain billionaires, and there’s not much you can do about it. They’re not elected to the role, so you can’t vote them out of it. They didn’t become billionaires by cashing paychecks, so there’s no one you can harass into firing them. They didn’t break the law to make a billion dollars — at least usually not — so you can’t drop a dime on them. They have more money than God, as the saying goes, so even he is of no use.And until something changes, we will live in a nation that is substantially warped by the gravity of their fortunes.Willy Staley is a story editor for the magazine. More

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    SALT Deduction That Benefits the Rich Divides Democrats

    House Democrats are poised to lift a cap on the state and local tax deduction, a gift to wealthy homeowners in some blue states.WASHINGTON — A plan by House Democrats to reduce taxes for high earners in states like New Jersey, New York and California in their $1.85 trillion social policy spending package is becoming an early political albatross for the party, with Republicans already mobilizing to accuse Democrats of defying their populist principles in favor of cutting taxes for the rich.The criticism offers a preview of the emerging battle lines ahead of next year’s midterm elections and underscores the challenge that Democrats face when local politics collide with the party’s national ambitions to promote economic equity. For Republicans who have defended their 2017 tax cuts, which overwhelmingly benefited the wealthy, the proposal by Democrats to raise the limit on the state and local tax deduction is an opportunity to flip the script and cast Democrats as the party of plutocrats.“I think they’re struggling to maintain their professed support for taxing the wealthy, yet they are providing a huge tax windfall under the SALT cap,” said Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, referring to the acronym for state and local taxes. “If your priorities are working families, make that the priority, not the wealthy.”Republicans, looking for ways to finance their own tax cuts in 2017, capped the amount of state and local taxes that households could deduct from their federal tax bills at $10,000. Democrats from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California have spent years promising to repeal the cap and are poised to lift it to $80,000 through 2030, before reducing it back to $10,000 in 2031. The cap, which is currently set to disappear in 2025, would then expire permanently in 2032.The bill would cut taxes sharply for the next five years by increasing the value of the deduction, but it would mean higher taxes in the following five years than if the cap were allowed to expire. The Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that over the course of a decade, the changes to the deduction would amount to a tax increase that would raise about $14.8 billion in revenue.The House proposal is likely to change in the Senate, where it has its own champions and detractors. Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, has embraced a more generous deduction while Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent who is the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, has sharply criticized the House proposal. He joined Senator Bob Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, in negotiating an income cap — as high as $550,000, though that number is in flux — on who can receive the deduction.This week, the National Republican Congressional Committee released survey data that it said suggested most voters in battleground states would be less likely to vote for Democrats who supported a policy that gave tax cuts to rich homeowners in New Jersey, New York and California. It said that the Democratic Party would have “to defend its politically toxic policies which penalize hard working families to reward liberal elites.”Prominent tax and budget analysts have argued that expanding the deduction amounted to an unnecessary giveaway to the rich.According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a family of four in Washington making $1 million per year would receive 10 times as much tax relief next year from expanding the state and local tax deduction as a middle-class family would receive from another provision in the social policy package, an expansion of the child tax credit. Citing calculations from the nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, the group said that two thirds of households making more than $1 million a year would get a tax cut under the legislation because of the increase to the state and local property tax deduction.The proposal has put some Democrats on the defensive.Rep. Jared Golden, Democrat of Maine, said this week that tax giveaways to millionaires sounded like something that Republicans would have come up with.“Proponents have been saying that the BBB taxes the rich,” Mr. Golden said on Twitter, referring to the bill known as the Build Back Better Act. “But the more we learn about the SALT provisions, the more it looks like another giant tax break for millionaires.”The issue is further complicating passage of the bill, which Democrats are trying to get through both the House and Senate without Republican support. Given their thin majorities in both chambers, Democrats can afford to lose no more than three votes in the House and none in the Senate.Some Democrats in Congress from states with high taxes have made the inclusion of the more generous deduction as a prerequisite for their backing the bill.“There’s a series of competing views on SALT, but I mean, it’s pretty obvious something has to be in there, that’s for sure,” said Representative Richard E. Neal of Massachusetts, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.The unexpectedly tight race for governor of New Jersey was a clear reminder that the state’s high property taxes — and the limit on their deductibility — are high on voters’ lists of worries, strategists and other political observers said.“As Covid kind of recedes, taxes are taking its place as the top issue in New Jersey,” said Michael DuHaime, a Republican political strategist with Mercury Public Affairs.The SALT cap “essentially resulted in a pretty large tax increase for a lot of families” in the suburbs of New York City, Mr. DuHaime said. With Democrats in power, those homeowners are counting on some relief, he said.Now that former President Donald J. Trump is out of office, New Jersey has “reverted to its mean” of being deeply concerned about the state’s affordability, said Julie Roginsky, a strategist who advised Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat, during his first campaign in 2017. The average homeowner in the state pays about $10,000 in property taxes, she said, with the cap hitting about one-third of New Jersey residents.“I think it’s absolutely a line in the sand that some of these vulnerable members of Congress need to draw,” Ms. Roginsky said.Several Democrats who represent affluent suburban areas where most homeowners pay much more than $10,000 a year in property taxes will face stiff challenges in the midterm election next year, strategists said. Their short list of vulnerable House members include Josh Gottheimer, Mikie Sherrill and Tom Malinowski from North Jersey, and Andy Kim, who represents part of the Jersey Shore, all of whom support raising the SALT cap.If the Democrats can engineer a change to the SALT deduction that is retroactive to cover 2021 taxes, those incumbents can campaign on having provided a tax cut, Ms. Roginsky said. But if they fail, their Republican opponents — like Thomas Kean Jr., a state senator who is challenging Mr. Malinowksi — will be able to use that against them, she said.Several House Democrats who represent affluent suburbs, including Mikie Sherrill, whose district includes part of Montclair, N.J., are expected to face stiff challenges in next year’s elections.Todd Heisler/The New York Times“It may not play well in Vermont or in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s district, but if you’re Nancy Pelosi, you understand that the road to your majority runs through places like suburban New Jersey and suburban California and suburban New York,” Ms. Roginsky said.Ben Dworkin, the director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University in Glassboro, N.J., cited the unexpectedly close race for New Jersey governor this year. He noted how effective Mr. Murphy’s challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, was in playing to voters’ feelings about the state’s high taxes.“He hammered home that issue,” Mr. Dworkin said.Public polling leading up to that election showed that affordability in general was the “top issue” in the state, he said.Biden’s ​​Social Policy Bill at a GlanceCard 1 of 6A proposal in flux. More

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    Who Are the Billionaires’ Picks for New York Mayor? Follow the Money.

    Ultrawealthy donors have given $16 million to super PACs dedicated to the New York City mayor’s race. Half of that money has gone to three moderate candidates.More than seven years after one of the nation’s wealthiest men stepped down as New York City’s mayor and was replaced by a successor who shunned the rich, billionaires have re-emerged as a potent force in the mayor’s race.Together, billionaires have spent more than $16 million this year on super PACs that are primarily focused on the mayoral primary campaign that ends on Tuesday — the first mayoral election in the city’s history to feature such loosely regulated organizations devoted to individual candidates.Overall, super PAC spending in the mayor’s race has exceeded $24 million, according to the New York City Campaign Finance Board, making up roughly 30 percent of the $79 million spent on the campaign.The impact has been dramatic: a deluge of campaign mailers and political ads on radio, television and the internet, especially in recent weeks, as the unusually large field of Democratic candidates vied to win over an electorate distracted by the pandemic.Dedicated super PACs exist for all but one of the eight major Democratic candidates, but half of the billionaires’ spending has benefited just three of the field’s more moderate contenders: Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president who is considered the front-runner; Andrew Yang, the 2020 presidential candidate and a top rival; and Raymond J. McGuire, a former Citigroup executive who trails in the polls.At least 14 individuals that Forbes magazine has identified as billionaires have donated to mayoral-related super PACs. Several run companies that are headquartered in New York City, while others have interests that would benefit from a good relationship with City Hall, and they are hedging their bets in an apparent effort to improve their chances of backing the winner.Steven A. Cohen, the hedge fund billionaire who owns the Mets, donated $500,000 to Mr. Yang’s super PAC and $500,000 to Mr. Adams’s in mid-May, when the two candidates were leading the polls. But as Mr. Yang’s support appeared to wane and Mr. Adams’s grew, Mr. Cohen cut off Mr. Yang and donated another $1 million to Mr. Adams.A similar trajectory characterizes the giving patterns of Daniel S. Loeb, another hedge fund billionaire and an outspoken supporter of charter schools and former chairman of Success Academy Charter Schools. He donated $500,000 to Mr. Adams’s super PAC and $500,000 to Mr. Yang’s super PAC in mid-May. Three weeks later, as Mr. Adams was cementing his front-runner status, Mr. Loeb gave Mr. Adams’s super PAC another $500,000.Both Mr. Adams and Mr. Yang have expressed support for charter schools. Ray McGuire’s super PAC has raised roughly $7 million from donors like Kenneth Langone, the billionaire co-founder of Home Depot.James Estrin/The New York TimesThe flood of money — which has also affected other key contests like the Manhattan district attorney’s race — comes as the pandemic has illuminated the stark differences between the city’s have and have-nots even as the mayor’s race has been more focused on gun crime and public safety than on inequality.The super PACs also threaten to undermine New York City’s campaign finance system, which is designed to combat the power of big money in politics by using city funds to match small donations.This year, the city rolled out an enhanced version of that system, offering richer rewards for small donations, and has thus far handed out more than $39 million to the mayoral candidates. But it is far from clear that New York City’s campaign finance system — considered a national model — can withstand the big-money onslaught wrought by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision of 2010, which allowed outside groups to spend an unlimited amount of money in elections.A super PAC played a small role in the last competitive mayoral primary in 2013, when an animal rights group helped fund a super PAC that attacked Christine Quinn, then the City Council speaker who had been a favorite in the race, because of her support for horse-drawn carriages in Central Park.The following year, the courts struck down a state cap on the size of contributions to super PACs.“Now in 2021, New York City has a term-limited Democratic incumbent with no heir apparent, which has led to a wide open mayoral race run with campaigns run by consultants with deep experience using candidate super PACs in federal campaigns,” said John Kaehny, the executive director of Reinvent Albany. Super PACs are theoretically independent of the political campaigns, and their spending is not supposed to be coordinated with individual candidates. But questions of the funds’ independence emerged in April, when New York City’s Campaign Finance Board withheld the release of public matching funds to the campaign of Shaun Donovan, who served as the Obama administration’s housing secretary and budget director.The board wanted to delve into the relationship between Mr. Donovan’s campaign and the super PAC supporting him, New Start N.Y.C., which is largely funded by his father. The board eventually released the matching funds.“Who’s going to be mayor matters to a lot of people with a lot of money,” said Lawrence Norden, the director of the electoral reform program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “You have to ask yourself when people are spending tens of thousands of dollars or hundreds of thousands of dollars to support a candidate, why are they doing it and what do they hope to get out of it?”Some billionaire donors who had supported a super PAC behind Andrew Yang have switched financial allegiances to Eric Adams.Andrew Seng for The New York TimesOne thing some may hope to get is an expansion of charter schools in the city. Other billionaires financing super PACs in this primary include four investors who support charter schools, a favored cause of financiers skeptical of district public schools: Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, who donated $500,000 and $600,000, respectively, to the Adams super PAC; Kenneth Griffin, another hedge fund manager, who has donated $750,000 to both the Adams and Yang super PACs; and Pennsylvania investor Jeffrey Yass, who donated $500,000 to Mr. Yang’s super PAC.As it happens, the president of Mr. Adams’s super PAC is Jenny Sedlis, who is on leave from a charter school advocacy group, Students First NY, and co-founded Success Academy, which has received direct financial support from Mr. Griffin.Scott M. Stringer, the New York City comptroller, has been critical of some charter school practices, which helped earn him the endorsement of the United Federation of Teachers. NY4Kids, a teachers’ union-backed super PAC supporting Mr. Stringer, reported raising nearly $6 million, with about $4.2 million raised and spent for the mayor’s race, a spokesman said.Mr. Stringer’s campaign has struggled following accusations that he made unwanted sexual advances decades ago, which he has denied. Cassie Prugh, the treasurer of the organization, said the group had focused on using their budget to make relatively early investments for Mr. Stringer. Various corporate entities controlled by the Dolan family, which owns Madison Square Garden, have put roughly $6 million into another super PAC, the Coalition to Restore New York, which highlights the same quality of life issues that have been central to the campaigns of Mr. Yang, Mr. Adams and Kathryn Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner. The super PAC has asked mayoral candidates, as well as candidates for other city offices, how they would fight crime, reignite tourism and stop the “exodus” of New Yorkers from the city.“The Coalition to Restore New York is candidate-agnostic and is not supporting or opposing anyone for office in 2021,” said Rich Constable, an executive vice president at Madison Square Garden.State and city records indicate the super PACs for Mr. Donovan, Mr. McGuire and Mr. Adams each raised about $7 million, and the two super PACs for Mr. Yang together raised more than $4 million. The super PAC for Ms. Garcia, another leading moderate, started late in the race and has raised $306,000..css-1xzcza9{list-style-type:disc;padding-inline-start:1em;}.css-3btd0c{font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.375rem;color:#333;margin-bottom:0.78125rem;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-3btd0c{font-size:1.0625rem;line-height:1.5rem;margin-bottom:0.9375rem;}}.css-3btd0c strong{font-weight:600;}.css-3btd0c em{font-style:italic;}.css-w739ur{margin:0 auto 5px;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-w739ur{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-w739ur{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-w739ur{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-9s9ecg{margin-bottom:15px;}.css-uf1ume{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:justify;-webkit-justify-content:space-between;-ms-flex-pack:justify;justify-content:space-between;}.css-wxi1cx{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;-webkit-align-self:flex-end;-ms-flex-item-align:end;align-self:flex-end;}.css-12vbvwq{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-12vbvwq{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-12vbvwq:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-12vbvwq{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-rdoyk0{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-eb027h{max-height:300px;overflow:hidden;-webkit-transition:none;transition:none;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-5gimkt:after{content:’See more’;}.css-12vbvwq[data-truncated] .css-6mllg9{opacity:1;}.css-qjk116{margin:0 auto;overflow:hidden;}.css-qjk116 strong{font-weight:700;}.css-qjk116 em{font-style:italic;}.css-qjk116 a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-thickness:1px;text-decoration-thickness:1px;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:visited{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration-color:#326891;text-decoration-color:#326891;}.css-qjk116 a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}Those who donated to the super PAC supporting Mr. McGuire may not get much of a return. Mr. McGuire, the only major candidate who is not participating in the city’s matching funds program, continues to poll in the single digits. Four individuals that Forbes considers billionaires have nevertheless supported the super PAC backing him, including the Home Depot co-founder, Kenneth Langone; the Loews Corporation heiress, Laurie Tisch; the Estee Lauder heir, Leonard Lauder; and William Ackman, an investor.Two super PACS supporting Maya Wiley, the leading left-wing candidate, have reported raising $1 million.Jonah Markowitz for The New York TimesMaya Wiley, the former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, is considered the leading left-wing candidate, and she has the support of two super PACs; one is affiliated with Local 1199 of the Service Employees International Union and the other with the Working Families Party.The billionaire investor George Soros has committed $500,000 to each. The Working Families Party will use that funding to make phone calls and knock on doors in support of Ms. Wiley and its other candidates in the primary, targeting New Yorkers who voted on the party’s line last year.“Right wing hedge fund billionaires think they can buy this city, spending millions on Eric Adams and Andrew Yang,” the Working Families Party national director, Maurice Mitchell, said in a statement.Billionaire interest has also extended to City Council races and the race for Manhattan district attorney, where one candidate, Tali Farhadian Weinstein — a multimillionaire herself — has garnered support from several wealthy donors, including Mr. Griffin and Mr. Ackman. Ms. Farhadian Weinstein has said that the donations will not influence her.In recent weeks, Ms. Farhadian Weinstein gave her own campaign $8.2 million, drawing anger from some of her competitors.Mr. Norden of the Brennan Center said that such giving was not without precedent in New York politics, comparing it to the self-funding in the mayoral campaigns of the billionaire Michael R. Bloomberg.“The trouble is that money shouldn’t be determining who has a shot at being on the ballot and getting their message out to voters,” he said.Mr. Soros also pledged $1 million to the super PAC Color of Change, aimed at helping another district attorney candidate, Alvin Bragg. A spokeswoman for the super PAC said that nearly $500,000 had been spent on Mr. Bragg’s behalf as of Friday.The billionaire with arguably the longest-standing interest in the mayor’s race, the Hudson Yards developer Stephen M. Ross, is also funding a super PAC, but is not backing a particular candidate. Rather, the Related Companies chairman is trying to sway the election toward the center by sending mailers to New Yorkers who only recently registered as Democrats — a tactic that dovetailed with another super PAC, sponsored by a Related executive’s wife, created to persuade Republicans to switch parties.“Remember, who you vote for is private, but whether or not you vote is a matter of public record,” one such mailer reads. “We’ll be checking the voter rolls after Election Day on June 22 and hope to see your name among those who have voted.” More

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    Wall Street Favorite Raises $5 Million in Race for New York Mayor

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }N.Y.C. Mayoral RaceA Look at the RaceAndrew Yang’s Candidacy5 TakeawaysWho’s Running?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWall Street Favorite Raises $5 Million in Race for New York MayorNew York’s business community is coalescing behind Raymond J. McGuire, an ex-Wall Street executive, but the support may turn off some left-leaning voters.At least 20 billionaires have donated to the mayoral campaign fund for Raymond J. McGuire, far left.Credit…Simbarashe Cha for The New York TimesJan. 13, 2021Updated 8:37 a.m. ETAs thousands of restaurants, Midtown office towers and Broadway theaters lay empty last summer, leaders of New York’s business community decided enough was enough: They wrote a scathing letter expressing no confidence in Mayor Bill de Blasio, and intensified efforts to find someone of their liking to replace him.They drafted Raymond J. McGuire, one of the longest-serving and highest-ranking Black executives on Wall Street, to run for mayor, and promised their assistance.Now, three months after announcing his candidacy, that support has come: Mr. McGuire’s campaign will report this week that it has already raised just over $5 million. It was an unusually high sum for such a short period, approaching the fund-raising totals of established candidates like Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller, and Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president.The amount is likely to jolt the race, pushing Mr. McGuire to the forefront of the free-for-all Democratic primary contest, placing pressure on Mr. Adams and Mr. Stringer to keep pace, and damaging the hopes of the other dozen or so candidates still struggling to meet fund-raising minimums to qualify for public matching funds.Mr. McGuire’s donor list reads like an index from corporate America, Wall Street, the entertainment industry and real estate. There are at least 20 billionaires on the list, including owners of sports teams and oil company chief executives. There’s old money dating back to the Ottoman Empire, and new money earned with the kings and queens of hip-hop culture.While the support illustrates the potency of Mr. McGuire’s candidacy, the ties to big business may be anathema to many left-leaning Democratic voters in New York, a city where political pressure has torpedoed efforts to expand Industry City in Brooklyn, and discouraged Amazon from pursuing a headquarters in Queens.Indeed, prominent Republican donors are among Mr. McGuire’s supporters, including Ken Langone, one of the founders of Home Depot, and his wife, Elaine, who each donated the maximum amount of $5,100. Kara Ross, a jewelry designer and the wife of Stephen Ross, a friend and fund-raiser of President Trump who founded Related Companies, also donated $5,100, according to campaign finance data shared with The New York Times.Mr. McGuire also received large donations from James L. Dolan, a major Republican and Trump donor who owns the Knicks and Madison Square Garden; and Richard S. Fuld Jr., the last chief executive of Lehman Brothers, which declared the largest bankruptcy in United States history during the 2008 financial collapse, and his wife, Kathy.Mr. McGuire, a former vice chairman at Citigroup, did not shy away from his support in the business community.“New Yorkers of all walks of life have shown they believe in our movement to lead the greatest comeback this city has ever seen, and everyone will be a part of it, no matter your race or religion, ZIP code or bank account, ideology or orientation,” Mr. McGuire said in a statement this week.Mr. McGuire raised so much money that it will actually benefit the candidates participating in the city’s matching funds program; when a candidate who is not participating in the program — Mr. McGuire is not — raises or spends more than half of the spending cap for program participants, the $7.3 million spending limit for primary candidates may be increased by 50 percent, according to Campaign Finance Board regulations. The change would push the primary spending limit to $10.9 million.Mr. Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, and Mr. Stringer, the comptroller, are the only two candidates who have met the threshold for matching funds so far.Mr. McGuire’s campaign has more than 3,700 donors who gave an average amount of $1,100. About 575 donors contributed the maximum amount. At least 75 percent of donors live in New York City, mostly in Manhattan.Scott Stringer, the city’s comptroller, is one of two mayoral candidates with more campaign funds than Mr. McGuire.Credit…Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesPaul T. Schnell, a partner at the law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom who oversees mergers and acquisitions, has known Mr. McGuire for 38 years and counts himself among the business leaders who nudged Mr. McGuire to run for mayor. Mr. Schnell and his family donated a total of $11,700 to Mr. McGuire. As the head of “Lawyers for Ray,” Mr. Schnell held a fund-raiser that raised more than $142,000, much of it from those who work at his law firm.“He’s got a combination of leadership, management and business skills but also great people skills and empathy,” Mr. Schnell said. “He will use those skills to restore the city’s economy and he’s going to do that for small businesses as well as large employers.”Mr. de Blasio has mostly avoided any relationships with business leaders, long priding himself on being a champion of the working class. When asked in December about equity in education, the mayor said that his “mission is to redistribute wealth.”As the 2021 mayoral field began to take shape, it became clear that none of the presumed front-runners seemed interested in working with business leaders, and Mr. McGuire was strongly encouraged to enter the race.A tipping point came last year, when the mayor was asked whether he worried that the wealthy were abandoning the city during the pandemic. The mayor responded, “We do not make decisions based on the wealthy few.”The frustration in the business community has now translated into keen support for Mr. McGuire. He received donations from prominent business leaders such as William A. Ackman, chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management; Danny Meyer of the Union Square Hospitality Group; Steve Stoute, a former record executive turned marketing executive; and Robert Reffkin, a co-founder and chief executive of the real estate brokerage Compass.Hutham S. Olayan, a member of one of the wealthiest families in the Arab world, gave two donations of $2,500; there were 11 donations from members of the Tisch family and five donations from members of the Lauder family, including maximum donations from Leonard A. Lauder, the philanthropist and chairman emeritus of the Estée Lauder Companies, and his wife, Judy Glickman Lauder; his son William P. Lauder, executive chairman of the Estée Lauder Companies; and his niece Jane Lauder, who is also a high-ranking executive at the firm.Voters are not likely to be surprised that Mr. McGuire, a Wall Street executive, would turn to wealthy friends to raise money, though progressives could make an issue of it, said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic strategist.But with so many people vying for the Democratic nomination, including several progressive-minded candidates, it is not clear how much Mr. McGuire’s business ties will damage his chances, especially with ranked-choice voting allowing as many as five candidates to be chosen.Mr. Gyory said that Mr. McGuire’s credibility in the business world could shore up support among Black voters.“The question is can he take his fund-raising prowess and turn it into support in the Black community in Southeast Queens and the North Shore of Staten Island and create a message that resonates,” Mr. Gyory said. “African-American voters may say, we have a candidate who can compete and we should take a second look.”Mr. McGuire also leaned on his personal business connections. Charles Phillips, Mr. McGuire’s campaign co-chairman and the former president of Oracle who sits on several corporate boards, and William M. Lewis Jr., co-chairman of investment banking at Lazard, are both personal friends. They co-hosted the initial fund-raiser for the campaign, which raised more than $400,000. Both also made maximum contributions.Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, leads all mayoral candidates in fund-raising.Credit…Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesSeveral well-known people in the entertainment industry also donated money to Mr. McGuire, including the filmmaker Spike Lee and his wife, the producer Tonya Lee Lewis; Mr. Lee provided the narration for Mr. McGuire’s campaign launch video.Others included Michael Ovitz, co-founder of Creative Artists Agency; the ballerina Misty Copeland; Jessica Seinfeld, the cookbook author, philanthropist and wife of the comedian Jerry Seinfeld; Gwyneth Paltrow; Debra L. Lee, the former head of Black Entertainment Television; Valerie Jarrett, a former adviser to President Barack Obama; and the music executive Lyor Cohen.The campaign has approximately $3.7 million on hand, which means that Mr. McGuire has been spending about $442,000 per month to keep his campaign staff of 25 running. By comparison, Mr. Stringer has $5.7 million on hand and has spent just over $429,000. Mr. Adams has $6.6 million on hand and has spent just over $367,000, according to the most recent campaign finance filings.Carlos Menchaca, a councilman from Brooklyn, is one of the mayoral candidates who is not expected to reach the threshold for public matching funds. Mr. Menchaca, who was instrumental in turning back the proposed expansion and rezoning of Industry City, said that New York City is now committed to rejecting “candidates connected to toxic policy around development and Wall Street.”“I’m incredibly confident that New Yorkers will see through these campaigns that have not distanced themselves,” he said. “Viability is not connected to money.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More