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    The Book That Predicted the 2024 Election

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    The Book That Predicted the 2024 ElectionThe G.O.P. pollster Patrick Ruffini’s book “Party of the People” outlined the realignments reflected in this year’s election results.This is an edited transcript of an episode of “The Ezra Klein Show.” You can listen to the conversation by following or subscribing on the NYT Audio App, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube, iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts.You should be skeptical of anyone with a very detailed, confident take on the dynamics of the 2024 election right now. At the very least, you should be if they didn’t tell you before the election.But Patrick Ruffini, a longtime Republican pollster who is a founding partner at Echelon Insights, did tell you before the election. In 2023, he published a book called “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”What he argued in that book is really two things: First, the educational divide reshaping American politics would continue, with non-college voters swinging right and college-educated voters swinging yet further left. But second, he argued that the 2020 election results, weird as they seemed to many, weren’t a fluke.Donald Trump performed a lot better in 2020 than the polls said he would. A major reason he performed so much better is that he did better among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters. That was, to put it very mildly, not what Democrats expected. Trump was the xenophobe in chief. Democrats were appalled by the way he talked about immigrants, about Muslims, about China, about Black communities. The theory was that Trump was using racism and nationalism to drive up his margins among white voters.And then what actually happens after four years of his presidency is that Biden in 2020 does a bit better than Clinton did among white voters. And Trump in 2020 improves quite a bit among nonwhite voters.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Cómo el sur hispano de Texas prefirió a Donald Trump

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      Las victorias más amplias de Donald Trump se produjeron en la frontera de Texas, un bastión demócrata donde la mayoría de los votantes son hispanos. Ganó 12 de los 14 condados de la región.En ningún lugar de Estados Unidos los condados históricamente demócratas han cambiado tanto y tan rápido en dirección al expresidente Donald Trump como en las comunidades de Texas a lo largo del Río Grande, donde los residentes hispanos constituyen una abrumadora mayoría.En las últimas elecciones, la mezcla de centros urbanos en expansión y ranchos rurales de la región, que habían sido bastiones demócratas fiables durante generaciones, empezaron a volverse republicanos.Entonces, el martes, Trump se llevó el sur de Texas y la región fronteriza firmemente hacia su lado, tomando 12 de los 14 condados a lo largo de la frontera con México, y haciendo incursiones significativas incluso en El Paso, la ciudad más grande de la frontera. En 2016, Trump solo ganó en cinco de esos condados.El apoyo a Trump a lo largo de la frontera de Texas fue el ejemplo más claro de lo que ha sido una amplia aceptación nacional del candidato republicano entre los votantes hispanos y de clase trabajadora. Ese cambio se ha producido tanto en comunidades rurales como en grandes ciudades, como Miami, y en partes de Nueva York y Nueva Jersey.Pero Texas destacó. Ocho de los 10 condados demócratas que más se inclinaron hacia Trump el martes estaban en la frontera de Texas o a poca distancia en coche.Una de las mayores oscilaciones se produjo en el condado de Starr, una zona rural de 65.000 habitantes salpicada de pequeños pueblos dondese han levantado tramos de muro fronterizo, los ingresos son bajos y muchos viajan largas distancias para trabajar en los campos petrolíferos del oeste de Texas. El condado se volvió republicano el martes, apoyando a Trump por unos 16 puntos porcentuales. En 2016, perdió el condado frente a Hillary Clinton por 60 puntos.[El mapa muestra el cambio del voto presidencial en Texas en comparación con 2020].Hispanic counties in Texas shifted right, and some flipped for Trump More

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      Trump’s Support From Black and Latino Voters Gives Republicans New Hope

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      Donald J. Trump picked up support among Latino and Black working-class voters, giving the party hope for a new way to win in a diversifying nation.Republicans have sounded alarms for more than a decade about the limits of their overwhelmingly white party. To stay competitive for the White House, strategists warned, they would need to bring more Black, Latino and other voters of color into the fold.On Tuesday, Donald J. Trump showed how it could be done.His victory over Vice President Kamala Harris was decisive, broad and dependent on voters from core Democratic constituencies. Results showed that Mr. Trump continued his dominance with the white, working-class voters who first propelled his political rise. But he also made modest gains in the suburbs and cities, and with Black voters, and even more significant inroads with Latinos.Mr. Trump’s performance did not suddenly transform the Republican Party into the multiracial alliance of working-class voters that some strategists say is necessary for survival in the rapidly changing country. But he nudged it in that direction.At a time when the nation is sharply divided — particularly between rich and poor, and between those with and without a college degree — even incremental shifts were enough to sweep Mr. Trump back into power and put him on track to win the popular vote. Conservative strategists who have pushed the party to broaden its appeal pointed to the changes as proof of concept. Democrats, who have long relied on the support of minority voters, agonized over the trends.“The losses among Latinos is nothing short of catastrophic for the party,” said Representative Ritchie Torres, an Afro-Latino Democrat whose Bronx-based district is heavily Hispanic. Mr. Torres worried that Democrats were increasingly captive to “a college-educated far left that is in danger of causing us to fall out of touch with working-class voters.”There was evidence of Mr. Trump’s inroads across the country. In the heavily blue-collar community of Fayette County, Pa., outside Pittsburgh, Mr. Trump won nearly 70 percent of the vote, expanding his margins by about five percentage points since 2020.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Un nuevo anuncio en español de Kamala Harris resalta el insulto a Puerto Rico en un mitin de Trump

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      Está dirigido a los votantes latinos del disputado estado de Pensilvania, que tiene una considerable población puertorriqueña.La campaña de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris publicó el jueves un nuevo anuncio dirigido a ganarse a los votantes puertorriqueños y otros votantes latinos recordándoles que un comediante en un mitin de Trump desdeñó a Puerto Rico calificándola de una “isla de basura”.El anuncio, titulado “Somos más”, está narrado en español por un hombre con acento puertorriqueño que utiliza coloquialismos boricuas. El narrador aborda directamente el comentario de la “isla de basura” que el comediante Tony Hinchcliffe hizo el domingo como parte de un acto de apertura para el expresidente Donald Trump en el Madison Square Garden de Nueva York.“No somos basura, somos más”, dice, y añade: “El 5 de noviembre, Trump comprenderá que la basura de unos es el tesoro de otras”.El anuncio forma parte de una compra publicitaria de 370 millones de dólares, según la campaña de Harris. Está dirigido a la población latina del disputado estado de Pensilvania, que tiene una considerable población puertorriqueña.El anuncio se emitirá durante las populares telenovelas de las principales cadenas en español de EE. UU., Univisión y Telemundo, así como en WAPA, una cadena puertorriqueña que emiten muchos proveedores de cable de EE. UU. También aparecerá en plataformas digitales como YouTube, Snapchat y el sitio web de El Nuevo Día, el mayor diario de Puerto Rico, que respaldó públicamente a Harris el martes.Además de presentar a puertorriqueños notables, el anuncio incluye un fragmento de sonido de las protestas callejeras en la isla. El cántico —“Somos más y no tenemos miedo”— fue popular durante el verano de 2019, cuando las protestas masivas provocaron la dimisión del gobernador Ricardo A. Rosselló.Un chat de grupo privado filtrado entre el gobernador Rosselló y sus colaboradores reveló que se habían burlado de los puertorriqueños, utilizando a menudo un lenguaje soez y ofensivo.Patricia Mazzei es la jefa de la corresponsalía en Miami, que cubre Florida y Puerto Rico. Más de Patricia Mazzei More

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      El equipo de Trump teme por los comentarios racistas en el mitin del Madison Square Garden

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      La campaña del expresidente emitió un inusual comunicado distanciándose del chiste ofensivo de un cómico sobre Puerto Rico en su mitin del domingo, una señal de que le preocupa perder votos cruciales.Donald Trump y sus aliados presumen de sus posibilidades de victoria en los últimos días de la campaña de 2024. Pero hay indicios, públicos y privados, de que al expresidente y a su equipo les preocupa que las descripciones de sus oponentes, en las que lo presentan como racista y fascista, puedan estar calando en algunos segmentos de votantes.Esa ansiedad quedó clara tras el acto de seis horas de Trump en el Madison Square Garden de Nueva York, donde los incendiarios discursos del domingo incluyeron un acto de apertura a cargo de un cómico conocido por su historial de chistes racistas, quien se burló de Puerto Rico y calificó a la nación como “una isla flotante de basura” y habló de personas negras que tallan sandías.La reacción de las celebridades y los artistas puertorriqueños fue instantánea en las redes sociales, lo que llevó a la campaña de Trump a emitir una rara declaración defensiva en la que se distanciaba de los comentarios ofensivos. En una contienda tan reñida, cualquier electorado puede ser decisivo, y la considerable comunidad puertorriqueña del disputado estado de Pensilvania estaba en la mente de los aliados de Trump.Danielle Alvarez, asesora principal de la campaña de Trump, dijo en un comunicado que la broma sobre Puerto Rico “no refleja las opiniones del presidente Trump ni de la campaña”.El ethos de Trump ha sido, por lo general, no disculparse nunca, no admitir errores e intentar ignorar la controversia. La declaración de Alvarez fue una rara ruptura de esa práctica, que refleja la nueva preocupación de que Trump corra el riesgo de recordar a los votantes indecisos el oscuro tenor de su movimiento político en la fase final de la campaña de 2024.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Desi Arnaz Historical Marker Celebrates the ‘I Love Lucy’ Star in Miami Beach

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      A new historical marker in Miami Beach pays tribute to his younger years, before Hollywood, when as a Cuban émigré he performed at a nightclub.Years before he played the charming and devoted husband Ricky Ricardo on the sitcom “I Love Lucy” and became a bandleader who belted out “Babalú” before audiences, Desi Arnaz was a teenage Cuban immigrant who struggled to learn English in Florida.He attended a Catholic school in Miami Beach, picking up the guitar and the conga drum. And he was eventually hired as a bandleader at a nightclub where he popularized the conga.Nearly 90 years after that first big break, Miami Beach honored him on Tuesday with a historical marker that was placed near where the nightclub stood. The marker pays tribute to his younger years in the city and celebrates him for paving the way for generations of Latino entertainers.“He was not only a pioneer for Cubans that were coming to the United States but he was a pioneer for the arts in Miami Beach,” said Alex Fernandez, a member of the Miami Beach Commission, the city’s legislative body.Desi, ‘an American Original’Desi Arnaz during a publicity tour to Lucille Ball’s hometown in Jamestown, N.Y., in 1956.Charlotte BrooksThe new marker is at Collins Park outside the Miami City Ballet. It is near the site of the former Park Avenue Restaurant that hosted performances and came to be remembered as the Park Avenue nightclub. The memorial joins an artsy Miami Beach district that includes the Bass Museum of Art and a library.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      ¿Por qué a Trump le va tan bien con los votantes negros e hispanos?

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      Cinco posibles explicaciones sobre el aumento de apoyo al expresidente, sobre todo entre los hombres jóvenes.Un acto de Trump en el Bronx en mayo mostró el apoyo de negros y latinos.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesEn 2016, Donald Trump se convirtió en el candidato republicano y finalmente ganó la presidencia tras llamar violadores a muchos inmigrantes mexicanos y afirmar falsamente que Barack Obama no había nacido en Estados Unidos.Ocho años después, las encuestas sugieren que bien podría volver a la Casa Blanca al obtener mejores resultados entre los votantes negros e hispanos combinados que cualquier candidato presidencial republicano desde la promulgación de la Ley de Derechos Civiles en 1964.¿Cómo es posible? Es una pregunta que me hacen a menudo, y las últimas encuestas del New York Times/Siena College entre votantes negros e hispanos de todo el país representan nuestro mejor esfuerzo por responderla.Al igual que nuestras otras encuestas de este ciclo, los sondeos revelan que a Trump le va inusualmente bien para un republicano entre los votantes negros e hispanos. En general, Kamala Harris va a la cabeza, 78 por ciento a 15 por ciento, entre los votantes negros, y va a la cabeza, 56-37, entre los votantes hispanos.Casi de cualquier manera que podamos medirlo, Trump está funcionando tan bien o mejor entre los votantes negros e hispanos que cualquier republicano en la memoria reciente. En 2020, el apoyo de las personas negras a Joe Biden era del 92 por ciento entre los votantes de los principales partidos; su apoyo hispano era del 63 por ciento, según cálculos del Times.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Harris Town Hall Shows Her Straining for a Tough Empathy on Immigration

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      The woman was weeping as she told Vice President Kamala Harris about her mother, who she said died six weeks ago without having ever achieved legal status in the United States.“My question for you is, what are your plans to support that subgroup of immigrants who have been here their whole lives, or most of them, and have to live and die in the shadows?” Ivett Castillo asked at Ms. Harris’s first voter town hall as the Democratic nominee, an event hosted by Univision for undecided Hispanic voters.In her answer, Ms. Harris strove to connect, gently urging Ms. Castillo to “remember your mother as she lived.” But the vice president’s response also underscored how much her hard-line immigration message has focused on enforcement rather than reform, as former President Donald J. Trump uses the border to paint Ms. Harris as a weak and ineffective leader.While Ms. Harris called the nation’s immigration system “broken” and pointed out that the first bill proposed by the Biden-Harris administration would have created an earned pathway to citizenship for many undocumented immigrants, she quickly turned to the topic of the southern border — and condemned Mr. Trump for helping kill a bill that would have devoted more resources to securing it.“Real leadership is about solving the problems on behalf of the people,” she said at the town hall, which was held in Las Vegas and will be broadcast at 10 p.m. Eastern time. Many questions were asked in Spanish and translated for her. Hispanic voters could help decide the election, but Ms. Harris’s support among them is lagging.On Thursday, she also faced intense and emotional questions on health care and the economy, giving her a chance to display a greater degree of empathy and humanity than in the more choreographed interviews she has recently given. Much of the conversation centered on themes that Democratic presidential candidates have used to appeal to Latino voters for decades, including promises to stimulate small businesses, lower costs for families and create more legal pathways for undocumented workers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Inside a Pro-Harris Ad Telling Hispanic Voters She’s Friendlier Than Trump

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      Two Democratic groups — Somos PAC and Priorities USA Action — are running this 30-second ad on digital platforms in battleground states in support of Vice President Kamala Harris. The ad is targeted at Hispanic voters, and the two groups are spending $1 million on it as part of a $5 million campaign. It has both English- and Spanish-language versions.Here’s a look at the ad, its accuracy and its main takeaway.On the ScreenThe ad opens with images of smiling, hard-working people engaged in jobs often filled by immigrants from Latin America: operating a food truck, picking crops on a farm, working construction, serving coffee in a diner. The background music is light and airy.The spot then transitions to a grainy clip of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally as disturbing images pop on and off the screen. Young children are seen sleeping in cages, evoking Mr. Trump’s family separation policy. Cheering Trump rally-goers in cowboy hats hold up signs that read “Mass Deportation Now!”Then the screen brightens as Ms. Harris appears smiling in a crowd of children and adults. Her presence is followed by scenes of happy families, a young person graduating from college and more Americans hard at work.The goal of the ad seems to be shoring up Ms. Harris’s support with Hispanic voters by contrasting her approach to immigration with Mr. Trump’s.Somos PAC and Priorities USA ActionThe ScriptNarrator“Working people, including hard-working immigrants, are bringing our economy back. But while Trump threatens to separate families and weaken our economy, Kamala Harris’s balanced approach to immigration is keeping families together: by protecting our loved ones from deportation, providing a pathway to citizenship and work visas for Dreamers. With the Biden-Harris administration’s historic action, working people like us can continue to build a good life and strengthen our economy for generations to come.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More