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      An Achilles’ Heel for House Democrats: The Open Seat

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      A rash of retirements has made a tough campaign even tougher.If Democrats lose the House next week, it won’t necessarily be because their members of Congress lost their seats.It will primarily be because they lost competitive races in open seats. That is: races in districts where there is no incumbent, and each party — not just the challenger — has to start from scratch.Gerrymandering has whittled down the number of truly competitive seats this year to just 59 out of 435 total, according to the Cook Political Report’s latest ratings. And of those, 19 are either open seats or new seats formed by the most recent redistricting cycle. Remember: Republicans need to pick up only five seats to retake the House.Cook also lists five open seats in its “likely Republican” category, which it does not consider competitive. Democrats previously held four of those five seats, which suggests that Republicans will start the election night vote-counting needing just one pickup elsewhere in order to win the majority.Or take the next tier down: races Cook says “lean Republican.” Two of the three open seats in that category, in New York and Washington State, are held by Republicans. But the third, Arizona’s newly redrawn Sixth Congressional District, is held by Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat who is retiring. If Republicans pick off that seat, that will make five.That’s a steep deficit to overcome. In 2020, in a year when Democrats took the presidency and won back the Senate thanks to a pair of Georgia races that went their way, nearly every competitive House race broke toward Republicans. And judging from the flurry of advertising spending over the last week or so, Democrats are playing defense on open seats further down in Cook’s ratings — even in blue bastions like Rhode Island.That daunting picture has left Democrats scrounging for a few open, Republican-held seats as pickup opportunities.My colleague Grace Ashford wrote about one in New York State, the Syracuse-area seat held by Representative John Katko, who is retiring.Another is the North Carolina seat just south of Raleigh-Durham, where Wiley Nickel, a criminal defense lawyer and state legislator, is facing Bo Hines, a 27-year-old former high school quarterback I wrote about in May.In Illinois, because of an aggressive redistricting push, there’s a chance Democrats could pick up the seat held by Representative Rodney Davis, who lost a Republican primary for a different seat.Democrats also think they have a slight chance of taking Washington’s Third Congressional District, where Joe Kent, a far-right former Green Beret, defeated Representative Jamie Herrera Beutler in a heated three-way primary. His Democratic opponent, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, got the most votes in that matchup — but Kent needs to consolidate only some of the more moderate Republicans who backed Herrera Beutler in order to win.Elsewhere, Democrats are hoping to knock off a few Republican incumbents: David Valadao in California, Steve Chabot in Ohio, Don Bacon in Nebraska and Yvette Harrell in New Mexico. And in Texas, they have a good shot at picking up a seat in the Rio Grande Valley that Republicans won in a special election a few months ago.But as my colleague Shane Goldmacher wrote last week, the battle for control of the House is overwhelmingly being conducted on Democratic-held turf. And open seats are a major reason.The trouble with open seatsWhy are open seats so hard to defend?There are a few reasons. One is that incumbents already have name recognition in their districts. They have their own brands. And for all the complaints voters might have about Congress in general, they tend to like their own lawmakers.Incumbents also find it easier to raise money, because they can tap into their networks. They already have a campaign apparatus and a trusted staff ready to go. And they usually don’t have to worry about swatting away a primary challenger, whereas open seats often set off a primary free-for-all.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.Biden’s Agenda at Risk: If Republicans capture one or both chambers of Congress, the president’s opportunities on several issues will shrink. Here are some major areas where the two sides would clash.Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.“Candidates in open seats don’t walk in with any definition,” said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist, “which makes them vulnerable to being defined by their opponents.”All of that means that the national political environment can be decisive in open races. There are fewer true swing voters than ever. But this dwindling number of swing voters, who pay less attention to politics and don’t have the fixed ideologies that hard-core partisans do, usually pull the lever based on the economic conditions of the moment. And we all know how voters feel about the economy right now.Because they’re new to voters, the contenders for open seats function more like generic Democrats or Republicans. You might have heard of Marjorie Taylor Greene or Marcy Kaptur, but what about Christopher Deluzio or Mike Erickson? You’re probably more likely to pay attention to the party label next to the names of the latter two.Cookie-cutter attacksThe ads in these races tend to be pretty generic, too, even when the candidates are not.Deluzio is a lawyer and cybersecurity expert who was deployed to Iraq while he was a Navy officer — the kind of profile that candidate recruiters love in places like Western Pennsylvania.He’s running for the suburban Pittsburgh seat vacated by Representative Conor Lamb, but on themes similar to those of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania. He is campaigning against what he has called “a system that is rigged against working families, from lousy trade deals and far-flung supply chains, to union-busting corporations and outsourcers making record profits being protected in Washington.”One of the Republican ads attacking Deluzio could be cut and pasted from anywhere. But it seizes on comments that Deluzio, who was a delegate for Senator Bernie Sanders at the 2020 Democratic convention, made about how he was “taking my cues” from Sanders and from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to push President Biden on progressive priorities.“What’s scarier, though, is what his extreme views would mean for us: skyrocketing prices on food and gas, higher taxes, defunding our police,” the narrator says in the ad.Democrats have fired back with ads depicting his opponent, Jeremy Shaffer, as doing the bidding of China — as they have done to their Republican opponents in heavily blue-collar districts and states across the country.Shaffer, who has a doctoral degree in engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, founded a company that makes software to inspect bridges and other transportation infrastructure. Democrats have tried to turn Shaffer’s business into a vulnerability, seizing on the fact that his company had overseas customers. It’s not subtle.“Maybe Jeremy Shaffer should be running for Congress in Peking,” a silver-mustachioed chap in a hard hat says in one ad from House Majority PAC.Democrats helped John Gibbs, center, a far-right commentator, defeat an incumbent in his primary in Michigan. Now he faces Hillary Scholten, a Democrat who is well known in the district.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesTrying to overcome gravityWhere Democrats think they have a shot at defending open seats, it’s usually because the underlying characteristics of the district are tilted in their favor, or because their candidates are already relatively well known.Emilia Sykes, for instance, is the Democratic candidate in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, which is Representative Tim Ryan’s seat. Ryan is running for Senate. Her parents are longtime Democratic politicians, and she was the minority leader in the Ohio House.In Michigan’s newly redrawn Third Congressional District, Democrats have benefited from some old-fashioned skulduggery: They propped up John Gibbs, a far-right commentator who defeated Representative Peter Meijer in the Republican primary. Gibbs has raised just $1.2 million. At the same time, the Democratic nominee, Hillary Scholten, previously ran in 2020, so voters may know her name.Democratic groups have often swooped in to help newbie candidates in open races, but not always. In Oregon’s Fifth Congressional District, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a progressive who defeated Representative Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary, has been left largely to fend for herself in the campaign’s closing weeks even as the Congressional Leadership Fund, a group close to Representative Kevin McCarthy, has poured millions of dollars into of negative ads.Democrats are more optimistic about Oregon’s new Sixth District, which includes Salem and some suburbs of Portland. Andrea Salinas won a fierce Democratic primary against a more progressive candidate with the help of millions of dollars in donations from a group linked to Sam Bankman-Fried, the cryptocurrency billionaire.But the overall math for House Democrats looks daunting, and open seats are a major reason.“You spend the election cycle trying to overcome gravity,” Ferguson said, “but oftentimes it can’t be done.”What to readCalifornia, where Democrats often run against fellow Democrats in November thanks to an unconventional election system, is the unlikely backdrop of some of this year’s most bitter political campaigns. Ken Bensinger has the details.Bitterness over looting and destruction in Kenosha, Wis., that followed the police shooting of Jacob Blake could help tip a governor’s race in the direction of Republicans, Julie Bosman reports.A handful of Republicans in New England are making headway in traditionally Democratic strongholds by distancing themselves from the right wing of their party, Stephanie Lai reports from Rhode Island.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      ‘Somebody’s going to die’: Democrats warn of political violence after Paul Pelosi attack

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      ‘Somebody’s going to die’: Democrats warn of political violence after Paul Pelosi attackDire warnings after hammer assault on speaker’s husband and amid concern that security does not adequately reflect threats Democratic politicians have ramped up their warnings about the threat of political violence in America after a man bludgeoned House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 82-year-old husband with a hammer in their California home on Friday.The dire warnings come amid longstanding concern that security services provided do not adequately reflect ongoing threats, especially as midterm elections loom. The Associated Press reported on Sunday that Paul Pelosi’s assailant had been carrying zip ties when he broke in.“Somebody is going to die,” Debbie Dingell, a Democratic congresswoman from Michigan, told the news website Axios. Dingell said that in 2020, after Fox News’s Tucker Carlson broadcast a segment on her, “I had men outside my home with assault weapons that night.”Mike Quigley, a Democratic congressman from Illinois, similarly told Axios that the savage assault “is confirming what members know: we are completely vulnerable at a time when the risks are increasing.” Quigley also said: “We need more ways to protect members and their families.”Indeed, the attack on Paul Pelosi appeared to have been intended for Nancy Pelosi, –Joe Biden said on Saturday. Authorities said that the attacker demanded “Where is Nancy?”; the veteran congresswoman was in Washington DC with her security detail when the assault took place.On the day of the attack, a US joint intelligence bulletin warned that there was a “heightened threat’ to the midterm contests, fueled by a rise in domestic violent extremism, or DVE, and driven by ideological grievances and access to potential targets,” according to CBS’s Nicole Sganga.The man charged in the assault, David DePape, might have expressed his political ire – which largely mirrored far-right taking points – in recent online missives. An internet user with the handle “daviddepape” voiced support of the former US president Donald Trump and seeming belief in the conspiracy theory QAnon.Insurrectionists invaded and vandalized Pelosi’s office during the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by extreme Trump supporters. The rioters had been inspired by the then president, attacking law enforcement in an attempt to overturn Biden’s win.Some Capitol rioters sought out Pelosi, shouting her name; she escaped with other politicians and subsequently spearheaded efforts to secure the Capitol so that Congress could certify Biden’s victory.New York City police warned on Thursday that extremists might target politicians, polling sites, and political events in advance of the 2022 midterm elections. Threats have increased dramatically in recent years, with the US Capitol police reporting that they investigated 9,625 threats against lawmakers in 2021 – an approximately threefold increase from 2017.“I’m a rank-and-file member who served on a Mueller investigation and had death threats,” Kelly Armstrong, a Republican representative from North Dakota, told Axios. “I think everybody has to take it seriously.”There have been steps taken to address increasing threats against members of Congress, such as the House sergeant at arms’ announcement in July that all US Representatives will receive a $10,000 security allowance, but these measures have been criticized as insufficient. Pramila Jayapal, a Democratic congress member from Washington, said this summer that the allotment would not cover the recommended security measures for her home, per Axios.There have also been calls for legislative solutions to security concerns, but the attitude toward these concerns might stall along party lines. Mike Sherrill, a Democratic lawmaker from New Jersey, has introduced a bill that would permit judges to protect their personal information, following a 2020 shooting in New Jersey that left a judge’s son dead and her husband injured.Should Republicans win a majority in Congress, however, Capitol security will change; Republican Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, has criticized the placement of metal detectors outside the House chamber following the January 6 attack. McCarthy has hinted that he would remove them if he were in charge, Axios noted.TopicsUS CongressUS midterm elections 2022US politicsHouse of RepresentativesUS SenateUS crimenewsReuse this content More

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      A secret bathroom 911 call: how Paul Pelosi saved his own life

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      A secret bathroom 911 call: how Paul Pelosi saved his own life House speaker’s husband told alleged intruder that he needed to use restroom and spoke in ‘code’ to alert authorities of problem Paul Pelosi, the husband of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who was attacked with a hammer during an invasion of their California home, saved his life after secretly telephoning for help from the bathroom.According to Politico, Paul Pelosi told the alleged intruder – identified by authorities as David DePape – that he needed to use the restroom. Paul Pelosi’s mobile phone was charging in the bathroom at the time; the 82-year-old then made a surreptitious call to 911, and remained connected.The emergency services dispatcher, Heather Grimes, heard an exchange between Paul Pelosi and his attacker as he spoke in “code” to alert the authorities there was a problem. “What’s going on? Why are you here? What are you going to do to me?” Pelosi reportedly said while on the call.A suspicious Grimes then notified police for a wellness check.“It is really thanks to Mr Pelosi having the ability to make that call, and truly the attention and the instincts of that dispatcher to realize that something was wrong in that situation and to make the police call a priority so they got there within two minutes to respond to this situation,” Brooke Jenkins, San Francisco’s district attorney, told CNN.The San Francisco police chief, William Scott, said that officers arrived to the Pelosis home and saw Paul Pelosi and DePape holding a hammer. “The suspect pulled the hammer away from Mr. Pelosi and violently assaulted him with it,” Politico quoted Scott as saying. “Our officers immediately tackled the suspect, disarmed him, took him into custody, requested emergency backup and rendered medical aid.”Paul Pelosi suffered a skull fracture as well as injuries to his hands and right arm during the attack. He underwent surgery and is expected to fully recover.President Joe Biden said Saturday that it appeared the attack was targeting Nancy Pelosi. DePape allegedly said “Where is Nancy?” after invading their home.The attack on Paul Pelosi has intensified lawmakers’ calls for increased protection for their families. As threats against US politicians have risen sharply over the past several years, lawmakers are also seeing their families targeted.Lawmakers’ security details do not extend to their families when they are not with them. Some lawmakers have received supplemental protection from police departments in their home districts, but others have had to seek private security, CNN reported.TopicsNancy PelosiCaliforniaUS politicsUS CongressHouse of RepresentativesUS crimefeaturesReuse this content More

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      Nancy Pelosi: family ‘heartbroken and traumatized’ by brutal attack on her husband

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      Nancy Pelosi: family ‘heartbroken and traumatized’ by brutal attack on her husbandSpeaker’s husband underwent surgery after hammer assault that comes amid rising warnings of political violence in the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi said her family is “heartbroken and traumatized” after a brutal and bloody hammer assault on her husband that has shocked the US as it stands on the brink of tense and crucial midterm elections.An intruder smashed his way through a rear door into the Pelosi’s house in San Francisco on Friday. The man confronted Paul Pelosi and shouted, “Where is Nancy.”Paul Pelosi, 82, underwent surgery to repair a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands but his doctors expect a full recovery. However, the brutal attack – by a man who had posted online right-wing conspiracy theories – came amid rising warnings of political violence in the US.In her first official statement on the attack, Nancy Pelosi said: “A violent man broke into our family home, demanded to confront me and brutally attacked my husband Paul. Our children, our grandchildren and I are heartbroken and traumatized by the life-threatening attack on our Pop.”She added: “We are grateful for the quick response of law enforcement and emergency services, and for the life-saving medical care he is receiving. Please know that the outpouring of prayers and warm wishes from so many in the Congress is a comfort to our family and is helping Paul make progress with his recovery.”Paul Pelosi remains in the hospital but “his condition continues to improve”, the speaker said.The attacker now faces charges of attempted murder and other felonies.David DePape, 42, has been named by police as the attacker. Formal charges will be filed on Monday, and his arraignment is expected on Tuesday, according to the San Francisco district attorney’s office.In recent posts on several websites, he had reportedly expressed support for former president Donald Trump and embraced the cult-like conspiracy theory QAnon. The rambling posts included references to “satanic pedophilia”, aliens, antisemitic tropes and criticism of women, transgender people and censorship by tech companies.TopicsNancy PelosiUS politicsSan FranciscoHouse of RepresentativesnewsReuse this content More

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      Biden’s Agenda Hangs in the Balance if Republicans Take Congress

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      On a wide array of issues like abortion, taxes, race and judges, President Biden’s opportunities would shrink as Republicans vow to dismantle much of his legislative accomplishments.WASHINGTON — For President Biden, the Dreaming-of-F.D.R. phase of his presidency may end in little more than a week. If Republicans capture one or both houses of Congress in midterm elections, as polling suggests, Mr. Biden’s domestic agenda will suddenly transform from a quest for a New Deal 2.0 to trench warfare defending the accomplishments of his first two years in office.On a wide array of issues like abortion, taxes, race and judges, Mr. Biden’s opportunities would invariably shrink as he focuses less on advancing the expansive policy goals that have animated his administration and more on preserving the newly constructed economic and social welfare architecture that Republicans have vowed to dismantle.While the president and Democratic leaders have not publicly given up on the possibility of hanging onto Congress in the balloting that concludes on Nov. 8, privately they are pessimistic and bracing for two years of grinding partisan conflict.In addition to efforts to block or reverse Mr. Biden’s domestic initiatives, Republican control of either house would result in a flurry of subpoenas and investigations of the administration that would define the relationship between the White House and Congress.Mr. Biden’s aspirations to codify abortion rights, expand access to child care and college, address racial discrimination in policing, install more like-minded judges and guarantee voting rights would all become more difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.For their part, Republicans aim to roll back Mr. Biden’s corporate tax increases, climate change spending, student loan forgiveness and I.R.S. expansion targeting wealthy tax cheats.Beyond simply reversing the president’s policies, Republicans promise to advance their own initiatives to further cut taxes and spending, ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports, restrict access to abortion, protect gun rights, crack down on immigration, add more police to the streets and promote energy production, much of which would be hard to pass over a Senate filibuster, much less Mr. Biden’s veto.A change of management on Capitol Hill would represent a marked shift for Mr. Biden, who spent 36 years as a senator and eight years as vice president mastering the arts of legislative maneuvering. Despite razor-thin margins, he has pushed through a raft of far-reaching bills since taking office last year. They include a $1.9 trillion pandemic stimulus package, a $1 trillion plan to upgrade the nation’s roads, bridges and other infrastructure, a $739 billion package to fight climate change and curb prescription drug prices and a $250 billion program to boost the semiconductor industry.A significant number of Republicans supported some of the spending, including for infrastructure and semiconductors, but party leaders have argued that the open checkbook represents the worst of Democratic free-spending proclivities and helped push inflation to its highest rate in 40 years.In past eras, divided government in Washington has at times led to uncomfortable but meaningful compromises, including major tax and Social Security deals under President Ronald Reagan; landmark deficit reduction, clean air and civil rights legislation under President George H.W. Bush; and welfare overhaul and balanced budget measures under President Bill Clinton. No doubt Mr. Biden, who regularly boasts of the bipartisan deals he has forged, would seek areas of common ground.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.But today’s political atmosphere is radically more polarized than it was in the 1980s and 1990s, making it harder to imagine a Democratic president and Republican legislature coming together on areas of major disagreement except in a national crisis. The prospects of accord may be even more distant in case of a comeback campaign by former President Donald J. Trump, who would pressure his party to resist Mr. Biden at every turn.— Peter BakerHere are some major areas where the two sides would clash:TaxesMr. Biden imposed new taxes on corporations, including a new minimum tax on large multinationals like Amazon and a tax on stock buybacks, to help fund the climate and health priorities in the Inflation Reduction Act, which he signed this summer. He also increased spending on the Internal Revenue Service, to raise revenues by cracking down on companies and high earners that cheat on their taxes.Republicans want to repeal all those measures while passing further tax cuts, including extending some of the reductions for businesses and individuals passed in 2017 under Mr. Trump that are set to expire over the next few years.They have promised to reduce federal spending. Some prominent House conservatives want to reduce expenditures on safety-net programs like Medicaid and supplemental nutritional assistance, and to reduce future spending on Medicare and Social Security for some beneficiaries, which Mr. Biden opposes.— Jim TankersleyMr. Biden imposed new taxes on corporations like Amazon and a tax on stock buybacks, to help fund the health and climate bill he signed this summer.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesClimate changeTo curb global warming, Mr. Biden has set an ambitious goal of cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions roughly in half by 2030.The measure he signed this summer included $370 billion in incentives for electric utilities to increase their reliance on low-emission energy sources like solar and nuclear, for consumers to buy electric vehicles and for businesses to invest in energy efficiency. His Environmental Protection Agency has moved to limit emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and is preparing more regulations of the energy sector.Republicans opposed those climate efforts, and are set to mount congressional investigations into many of them. They could also seek to unwind some of the spending from the newly signed climate law and will likely challenge future regulations. They will also push legislation to speed up fossil fuel development by reducing federal regulation of new drilling projects.— Jim TankersleyHealth CareAfter a decade of elections with health care near the top of voter priorities, the big federal health programs are less central in this election. Republicans are not focused on repealing the Affordable Care Act, sometimes called Obamacare, or making major changes to Medicare and Medicaid in the short term. If Republicans retake majorities, they plan extensive oversight of Mr. Biden’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, however, and much of the spending that accompanied it. They also hope to consider smaller initiatives, such as expanding access to telemedicine in Medicare and improving price transparency in health care, building on Trump administration initiatives that many Democrats also embrace. Without a president who can sign their more conservative-leaning bills or large enough majorities to overcome a veto, Republicans are likely to focus on legislative efforts that at least some Democrats can support..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.If Democrats retain control, they are likely to pursue a similar set of less polarized issues. Mr. Biden already tried and failed to pass major structural changes to Medicare and Medicaid as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the new law meant in part to bring down prescription drug prices.— Margot Sanger-KatzJudgesAfter a record-breaking start at filling vacancies on the federal bench, the Biden administration’s aggressive push to remake the courts would be slowed considerably — if not entirely stalled — by a Republican takeover of the Senate.Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the current and likely future Republican leader, has demonstrated his skill at thwarting judicial nominations. “If it did happen, Senator McConnell has made it pretty clear that he would not be very eager to confirm President Biden’s nominees and would do anything he could to delay filling seats until he could get a different president,” said Russ Feingold, a former Democratic senator from Wisconsin and head of the American Constitution Society. “He usually follows through on those statements and threats.”To date, the Senate has confirmed 84 judges nominated by Mr. Biden, including a Supreme Court justice, 25 appeals court judges and 58 district court judges — the most in decades in the first two years of a president’s term. The White House has advanced a diverse set of candidates, focusing on underrepresented ethnicities as well as those with less typical professional backgrounds like public defenders and civil rights lawyers.Even if Republicans make package deals to advance judicial nominees as has been done in the past, nominees who are considered more progressive would encounter extreme difficulties in a Republican-controlled Senate. Bracing for a slowdown, Mr. Feingold’s organization is urging Senate Democrats to confirm at least 30 more judges before the newly elected Congress takes office.— Carl HulseAbortionMr. Biden has promised to enshrine into law the national abortion protections that were repealed when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade if voters increase the Democratic margin in the Senate. “The only way it’s going to happen is if the American people make it happen,” he has said in his appeals to the public.Republicans, who once saw abortion restrictions as a galvanizing issue within the party, are now in open disagreement about how far those should go. Strict or near-total bans on abortions have become unpopular with Republican voters.Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is pushing for a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, but his proposal is unpopular even with senior Republicans, including Mr. McConnell, who consider it politically risky and a contradiction to the let-the-states-decide position the party had long articulated. Mr. Biden would certainly veto any stand-alone bill with such a limit even if it did land on his desk.— Katie RogersRepublicans, who once saw abortion restrictions as a galvanizing issue within the party, are now in open disagreement about how far those should go.Callaghan O’Hare for The New York TimesStudent LoansMr. Biden’s order canceling up to $20,000 of student-loan debt for as many as 40 million borrowers has already been targeted in a lawsuit filed by six Republican-led states, which claim the president overstepped his executive authority in issuing the policy on his own.A Republican-controlled Congress could try to halt the policy by including language in a potential spending package declaring that Mr. Biden lacks authority to move forward with the debt relief. But Mike Pierce, the executive director of the student borrower protection center, said other parts of Mr. Biden’s student loan agenda are at greater risk, including a plan to reduce payments on undergraduate loans to 5 percent of discretionary income, down from 10 percent to 15 percent in many existing plans.Implementing the new system would draw money from an appropriated budget that could be targeted by congressional Republicans. “There’s money that goes to the Education Department to administer the student loan programs and you can see that budget being a part of negotiations with Republicans,” Mr. Pierce said.— Zolan Kanno-YoungsRaceMr. Biden has worked to put racial equity at the center of his agenda, ensuring that billions of dollars in government spending are focused on minorities and poor women. Some efforts, including a plan to forgive the debts of Black and other minority farmers, have run into lawsuits filed by white farmers who questioned whether the government could offer debt relief based on race. Republican lawmakers have echoed the criticism. The president directed federal agencies to ensure that 40 percent of investments for clean energy, transit, housing and work force development reach disadvantaged or marginalized communities.Republican lawmakers have signaled they would try to stall the equity agenda through congressional investigations. The policies are also likely to be the focus of legislative battles and political attacks against the administration. Top Republicans on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee sent a letter to the administration last month accusing Mr. Biden of misusing his authority “in a broad, crosscutting fashion” by requiring that a portion of federal funding go to minority communities.Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee launched an investigation this month into a Treasury Department committee tasked with reviewing aspects of the economy that have harmed communities of color. The lawmakers said the council “would distract it from its core responsibilities which include ensuring a level playing field for all Americans.”— Zolan Kanno-YoungsI.R.S.The Biden administration is in the midst of an $80 billion bulk-up of the Internal Revenue Service, the tax collection agency that Republicans love to hate.Although the overhaul of the I.R.S. is in its early stages, the Treasury Department, which oversees the agency, has set ambitious goals for improving customer service and responsiveness to taxpayers. They have been trying to ramp up hiring and clear a backlog of millions of unprocessed tax returns.For years, Republicans have made it their mission to neuter the I.R.S. They are expected to use any leverage that they gain in the elections to scale back the agency’s funding.They have suggested that the 87,000 new hires that the I.R.S. plans to make will become a “shadow army” intended to target conservatives, and with Republicans controlling oversight committees there will be an intense spotlight on how the money is being spent. If Republicans retake the Senate, they will also have an opportunity to block Mr. Biden’s eventual nominee to be the next I.R.S. commissioner. (Treasury recently announced that the deputy commissioner would become acting commissioner in November.)— Alan RappeportEntitlementsEager to find an issue that will resonate with voters, Mr. Biden has revived a traditional Democratic campaign attack, arguing that keeping his party in power would protect Social Security and Medicare from Republican cutbacks. In a speech at the White House last month, the president warned that Republicans will put the social safety net programs on the “chopping block” if they take power.Any efforts from Republicans to enact changes to the entitlement programs over the next two years would be subject to Mr. Biden’s veto power.The long-term solvency of the programs is in doubt as the trust funds that support them are facing shortfalls in the next two decades.Republicans have not outlined a unified plan for how to deal with entitlements lately, but some have called for restructuring them or scaling them back. This, they say, would preserve them for the future. The most prominent proposal has come from Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida, that would allow Social Security and Medicare to “sunset” if Congress did not pass new legislation to extend them. Mr. McConnell has disavowed aspects of Mr. Scott’s agenda.— Alan RappeportConsumer ProtectionWith legislative options limited, Mr. Biden has been looking to executive branch agencies to help ease the pain that Americans are feeling from inflation. On Thursday, he touted a move by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to crack down on so-called “junk fees” that banks charge to consumers for overdrafting their accounts or depositing checks that bounce.Joined by Rohit Chopra, the director of the C.F.P.B., Mr. Biden said that the agency would be going after a wide range of unnecessary costs that are imposed on Americans by banks.But if Republicans have their way, the agency could see its powers dramatically diminished. A federal appeals court ruling this month said that the bureau’s funding that comes through the Federal Reserve is unconstitutional, calling into question its power to regulate the finance industry.The lawsuit could take years to play out, but House Republicans have already said that they want to bring the independent agency under the congressional appropriations process. The Trump administration tried to zero out the bureau’s budget, so Republican control could eventually mean that it lacks the resources to be a rigorous regulator.— Alan Rappeport More

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      A Beginner’s Guide to the U.S. Midterm Elections

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      What’s at stake, and how does it work? Let’s start with the basics.If you are broadly aware that the upcoming midterm elections in the United States have major global implications, but you’re not up to speed on the American system of government or you’re having trouble following along, you’re in the right place.In the United States’ two-party system, control of two crucial bodies of government — the Senate and the House of Representatives — is essential for getting laws made, and it will be decided by a vote on Nov. 8. Democrats currently control both bodies and the presidency, and losing either the House or the Senate to Republicans would significantly decrease Democrats’ power in the next two years of President Biden’s term.Hundreds of elections will take place, but many candidates are considered shoo-ins and control in each body will most likely be decided by a few tight races.I need the basics: What is decided in this election?The Senate, which is now at a 50-50 deadlock but is controlled by Democrats because Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tiebreaking vote, has 100 members, with two from each of the 50 states. There are 34 seats up for grabs in November, and winners serve six-year terms.The House, with 435 voting members, is controlled by the Democrats, 222 to 213. All 435 seats are up for election, with winners serving two-year terms.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.The odds are against Democrats, but this has been a strange year.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Frustration with the president often leads to success for the other party, and Mr. Biden has low approval ratings.Currently, Republicans are favored to win the House, and the Senate is considered a tossup, according to FiveThirtyEight. Democrats enjoyed a major polling bump after the Supreme Court made an unpopular ruling in June that removed the constitutional right to abortion, giving the party hope that it could defy historical trends, but that advantage has mostly faded.Read more here on how to follow the polls and the predictions, and on the wide range of outcomes possible.Why it matters: If Democrats lose control of either body, Biden’s agenda is in trouble.In highly polarized times, it is exceedingly difficult to pass legislation unless one party controls the presidency, the House and the Senate. If Republicans win either the House or the Senate, they can prevent much of what Mr. Biden and the Democrats would hope to accomplish before 2024, the next presidential election. You could kiss any major Democratic legislation goodbye.On the other hand, if Democrats hold onto the House and increase their lead in the Senate, it could give them more ability to pass new laws. And, since senators serve six-year terms, running up a lead now would give them some breathing room in 2024, when analysts say Republicans are likely to be highly favored..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.If Republicans gain power, they could block Democratic efforts to codify abortion rights and take action on the climate, and question the aid sent to Ukraine.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Sarah Silbiger for The New York TimesRepublicans could gain investigative and impeachment powers.If the Republicans take one or both of the chambers, they could use their new powers to create an onslaught of investigations into Democrats, as opposition parties have long done in Washington. With subpoenas and court hearings, they could highlight perceived incompetence or alleged wrongdoing on a variety of subjects, including the search of former President Donald J. Trump’s private club and residence in August, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the pandemic response.Democrats expect that Mr. Biden and his family would be among the targets, along with Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top medical adviser in the Trump and Biden administrations.Some Republicans have also pledged to impeach the president, a complicated process that could force Mr. Biden to stand trial in the Senate, as Mr. Trump did for separate impeachments in 2020 and 2021. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a Republican, said last year that there would be “enormous pressure” on a Republican House to impeach Mr. Biden “whether it’s justified or not.”An important power of the Senate: Approving court nominations.Control of the Senate includes the power to approve federal court justices, up to and including the Supreme Court. If Republicans claim control, they could use their power to block President Biden’s nominations.When President Barack Obama, a Democrat, had to work with a Republican-controlled Senate, the Republicans blocked his Supreme Court nomination in 2016. But Mr. Trump was able to speed through three Supreme Court nominations, thanks to the friendly Senate.Though not as high-profile, lower-court nominations can also be highly influential. As president, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have used same-party Senate control to appoint dozens of their preferred judges to important posts across the nation.State races could have a huge effect on issues like abortion rights and voting.A governor will be elected in 36 states. Among other powers, they could be highly influential in determining whether abortion remains legal in several states.The races for each state’s secretary of state do not usually receive much attention, but this year they have attracted major interest because of the office’s role in overseeing elections. It could become a key position if there are election disputes in the 2024 presidential election, and some of the Republicans running in key states supported Mr. Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. More

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      Democrats on the defensive as economy becomes primary concern over abortion

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      Democrats on the defensive as economy becomes primary concern over abortionPolls indicate tide shifting toward Republicans with high inflation rates and gas prices working in their favor With less than two weeks to go until election day, Democrats’ hopes of defying political history and keeping their narrow majorities in the House and Senate appear to be fading, as many of the party’s candidates go on the defensive in the final days of campaigning.Over the summer, many election forecasters wondered if Democrats could avoid the widespread losses typically seen by the president’s party in the midterms. With voters expressing outrage over the supreme court’s decision to end federal protections for abortion access and gas prices falling, Democrats had been hopeful that their endangered incumbents could win reelection.DeSantis’s old law firm received millions in Florida state funds, investigation findsRead moreIn August, Democrats took the lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to FiveThirtyEight. They held onto that lead for two and a half months – until last week.The national political environment now seems to have moved in Republicans’ favor, and Democrats are running out time to turn the tide. Gas prices started to rise again this month, although they have since started to moderate. With inflation at near record levels, the share of voters who name the economy as their top priority has increased since the summer.A New York Times/Siena College poll taken this month found that 44% of likely voters say economic concerns are the most important problem facing the country, compared to 36% who said the same in July. Just 5% of likely voters identified abortion as the most important issue right now. Voters’ renewed focus on inflation and gas prices could hurt Democrats’ chances in some key congressional races, given that Republicans consistently score better on surveys asking which party is better equipped to manage the economy.The shifting winds have prompted some Democrats to question whether they made a tactical error by focusing heavily on abortion rights in their campaign messaging. Just last week, Joe Biden promised to send a bill codifying Roe v Wade to Congress if Democrats fortify their majorities in the midterms.“I want to remind us all how we felt that day when 50 years of constitutional precedent was overturned,” Biden said last Tuesday. “If you care about the right to choose, then you got to vote.”With surveys indicating abortion rights are not top of mind for most voters, some progressive lawmakers are urging their colleagues to instead emphasize economic proposals like raising the minimum wage and creating a federal paid family leave program as they campaign for reelection.“In my view, while the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered,” progressive senator Bernie Sanders wrote in a Guardian op-ed earlier this month.Sanders added: “Now is the time for Democrats to take the fight to the reactionary Republican party and expose their anti-worker views on the most important issues facing ordinary Americans. That is both the right thing to do from a policy perspective and good politics.”Democrats worry that the strategy pivot may be coming too late for some candidates, as alarm bells go off in battleground states across the country.In Florida, a state that Donald Trump won by just three points in 2020, Republican governor Ron DeSantis appears likely to defeat his Democratic challenger, Charlie Crist, by double digits. DeSantis, a Trump-like figure who is widely expected to run for president in 2024, has already raised at least $177m this election cycle, setting a record for a gubernatorial campaign. DeSantis’ fundraising haul and Democrats’ bleak polling numbers have led many of the party’s national organizations and donors to abandon Florida candidates, effectively declaring a preemptive defeat.In the battle for the House, Republicans are poised to recapture the majority, as districts that Biden easily won less than two years ago now appear to be up for grabs. According to Politico, a recent internal poll conducted by the campaign of Julia Brownley, whose California district went for Biden by 20 points in 2020, showed the Democratic incumbent leading her Republican opponent by just 1 point.Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who is overseeing the party’s efforts to maintain control of the House, now faces the risk of being ousted himself. Earlier this week, the Cook Political Report changed the rating of Maloney’s race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”. If Maloney cannot hold his seat, the defeat would mark the first time since 1992 that a sitting House campaign committee chair lost reelection. Republicans are gleeful at the prospect of toppling the DCCC chair, dumping several million dollars into Maloney’s district.Maloney has remained optimistic about his chances, telling CBS News, “I’m going to win this election, and when I do, they’re going to wish they had that $9 million back.”But if the national environment is as dire as it appears for Democrats, a Republican wave could soon sweep Maloney and many of his colleagues out of office.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsRepublicansHouse of RepresentativesUS CongressJoe BidenAbortionnewsReuse this content More

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      Republican and Trump critic Liz Cheney to campaign for Michigan Democrat

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      Republican and Trump critic Liz Cheney to campaign for Michigan DemocratWyoming congresswoman, who lost her Republican primary, endorses Elissa Slotkin in seventh congressional district Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney on Thursday endorsed Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and plans to campaign for her.It is the first time that Cheney, a critic of Donald Trump who lost her Republican primary, has crossed party lines to formally support a Democrat.John Fetterman’s TV debate was disastrous – but he can still beat Dr Oz | Ross BarkanRead moreCheney, of Wyoming, announced her support for the two-term House member from Holly, Michigan, in a statement by the Slotkin campaign that notes she plans to headline a campaign event with Slotkin in the Lansing-area district next Tuesday.Slotkin is competing against Republican state senator Tom Barrett in Michigan’s seventh congressional district. Their race is considered a toss-up by both sides and one of the Republicans’ chief targets in their campaign to win the House majority on 8 November.Cheney and Slotkin serve on the House armed services committee, but their shared background in the federal government goes back further. Cheney worked in the state department before launching her political career, as did Slotkin, who worked in the CIA and the defense department as well.Both have been vocal critics of House Republicans who have sought to downplay the siege of the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Cheney is vice-chair of the House January 6 committee, which recently issued a subpoena for Trump to testify.“I have come to know Elissa as a good and honorable public servant,” Cheney said in a statement included in the Slotkin campaign’s announcement.“While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress.”As of two weeks ago, Michigan’s seventh district was the most expensive House race in the country, according to AdImpact, a non-partisan political media tracking company. The two campaigns and outside groups had combined to spend $27m.Biden received more votes than Trump in the district in 2020 by less than 1 percentage point.TopicsRepublicansHouse of RepresentativesUS CongressUS midterm elections 2022US politicsnewsReuse this content More