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    Midterm elections 2022: Democrats beating expectations as John Fetterman wins crucial US Senate race – live

    It may be a while until we know which party will win control of the House and Senate. But so far, the 8 November midterm has been full of surprises. Democrats have showed surprising strength in key races, defying what was broadly expected to be a Republican sweep amid high inflation and low approval rating for Joe Biden.
    Two of three Virginia Democrats in districts considered bellwethers for the national mood have won reelection, in what was an early sign of good news for Democrats.
    Democrat Josh Shapiro bested 2020 election denier Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s governorship race.
    Democrat John Fetterman declared victory in his race for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat. Maryland elected the first Black governor in its history, Democrat Wes Moore.
    Florida’s voters tilted further towards Republicans, reelecting firebrand governor Ron DeSantis and senator Marco Rubio.
    From Washington to New York, Democrats defied Republicans’ rosy predictions that they’d fall apart this year, even in their traditional strongholds.
    JD Vance won the Republican Senate race in Ohio, dashing Democrats’ hopes of picking up another seat in the chamber.
    Michigan voters reelected Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Democratic representative Elissa Slotkin in a hard-fought race. They also backed a ballot measure enshrining reproductive freedom.
    Voters in Vermont and California also backed abortion rights measures.
    Maryland’s Wes Moore will be the state’s first Black governor, and in Massachusetts Maura Healey will be the first out lesbian governor in US history.
    Our Politics Weekly America team have been working through the night in the US to produce a special edition of the podcast looking at the early results. Jonathan Freedland is joined by Joan E Greve, columnist Richard Wolffe, and Chris Scott of Democracy for America, to look at what we know so far. You can listen to it here.No sign of the red wave – yet: Politics Weekly America midterms special Read moreSix-term Republican representative Mark Amodei has defeated Elizabeth Mercedes Krause, as expected, in Nevada’s rural northern district where no Democrat has ever won, the AP reports.The second congressional district was considered the only safe seat for either party among the four in the western battleground of Nevada, where three incumbent Democrats faced stiff challenges on Tuesday.It may be a while until we know which party will win control of the House and Senate. But so far, the 8 November midterm has been full of surprises. Democrats have showed surprising strength in key races, defying what was broadly expected to be a Republican sweep amid high inflation and low approval rating for Joe Biden.
    Two of three Virginia Democrats in districts considered bellwethers for the national mood have won reelection, in what was an early sign of good news for Democrats.
    Democrat Josh Shapiro bested 2020 election denier Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s governorship race.
    Democrat John Fetterman declared victory in his race for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat. Maryland elected the first Black governor in its history, Democrat Wes Moore.
    Florida’s voters tilted further towards Republicans, reelecting firebrand governor Ron DeSantis and senator Marco Rubio.
    From Washington to New York, Democrats defied Republicans’ rosy predictions that they’d fall apart this year, even in their traditional strongholds.
    JD Vance won the Republican Senate race in Ohio, dashing Democrats’ hopes of picking up another seat in the chamber.
    Michigan voters reelected Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Democratic representative Elissa Slotkin in a hard-fought race. They also backed a ballot measure enshrining reproductive freedom.
    Voters in Vermont and California also backed abortion rights measures.
    Maryland’s Wes Moore will be the state’s first Black governor, and in Massachusetts Maura Healey will be the first out lesbian governor in US history.
    Earlier, Democrat Wes Moore made history by becoming the first Black governor of Maryland. He replaces Republican Larry Hogan, a moderate who managed to twice win election in what is otherwise a solidly blue state.The newly elected official assured the electorate “I hear you” and “this is our time” in his victory speech. Referencing his time in the army, Moore promised to “leave no one behind”. Joe Biden had joined Moore in a pre-election rally in Maryland the evening before election day. Here is the video clip.01:06Michigan voters enshrined protections for abortion rights, the AP projects.Voters approved a ballot measure affirming the right to make personal reproductive decisions without interference, and negating a 1931 ban on abortions.“Today, the people of Michigan voted to restore the reproductive rights they’ve had for 50 years,” said Darci McConnell, a spokesperson for Reproductive Freedom for All, which put forth the ballot measure. The measure marks a “historic victory for abortion access in our state and in our country – and Michigan has paved the way for future efforts to restore the rights and protections of Roe v Wade nationwide,” McConnell said.California resoundingly votes no on sports betting, Guardian tech reporter Kari Paul reports.Voters in California voted overwhelmingly to reject two gambling initiatives on Tuesday, marking a decisive end to the most expensive ballot proposition battle in US history.The two propositions would have expanded gambling access in the state in different ways: Proposition 27 aimed to legalize online and mobile sports betting while Proposition 26 would have allowed casinos and the state’s four horse tracks to offer sports betting in person.The online sports betting initiative was put on the ballot by sports betting companies including DraftKings and FanDuel, while Proposition 26 was funded by a coalition for Native American tribes.Nearly $600m was spent advocating for the propositions, more than double the record amount spent by gig economy firms such as Uber and Lyft in 2020 to classify their workers as contractors and block them from benefits and protections.Californians overwhelmingly rejected both propositions, with 84% voting no on Prop 27 and 70% voting no on Prop 26.State Democrats had opposed Proposition 27, but were neutral on Proposition 26. Democratic governor Gavin Newsom was neutral on both proposals. The California Republican party opposed both proposals.Democratic representative Elissa Slotkin has won reelection in a hard-fought Michigan race against Republican Tom Barrett.In 2018, Slotkin flipped a seat that was held by a Republican and won again in 2020 in a district that backed Donald Trump. She was seen as vulnerable once again this year, and the race was one of the top two most expensive races nationally, with both parties spending tens of millions on TV ads and mailers.Slotkin, a moderate who previously worked as an intelligence and defense department official who worked for both Democratic and Republican presidential administrations, was supported by Republican senator and Trump critic Liz Cheney.California voters have rejected a ballot measure that would have levied a wealth tax to fund the transition to electric vehicles.The measure, Prop 30, failed after California governor Gavin Newsom heavily campaigned against it, siding with Republicans over his fellow Democrats, environmental groups, firefighters and labor unions. In misleading ads against Prop 30, Newsom claimed it was a corporate carve-out for Lyft, the ride-hailing company that has backed the measure and helped fund its campaign.The environmental and public advocacy groups that developed the measure cried afoul. The measure had no provisions to specifically benefit rideshare companies, and Lyft only joined the effort to promote Prop 30 only after local groups developed the bulk of it.Among the biggest donors to the “No on 30” campaign were wealthy Californians who had also propped the governor’s campaign.Newsom this year issued an executive order banning the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035, and allocated $10bn to the effort to subsidize electric vehicle purchases and build out charging infrastructure, but environmental groups said the funding will quickly fall short.Josh Green, a Democrat and Hawaii’s lieutenant governor, has won the race to be the state’s next governor, the AP projects.Green defeated Duke Aiona, a Republican and former lieutenant governor, by what appeared to be a wide margin. Aiona had run for the office twice before. At his election night party, Green told supporters, “Tonight is the first day of that new era where our leaders must start doing more to listen, to care and to work on issues that matter to all of us, that matter to you.”On the campaign trail, Green said he would address the housing shortage in the state by advocating for building 10,000 new units and cracking down on vacation rentals. He also pledged to fight for reproductive rights, noting his opponent’s opposition to abortion protections.BREAKING: Crowds cheering at Democratic HQ as it’s official — Josh Green beats Duke Aiona in landslide on first printout with 66% of the Hawaii vote #HIGov #ElectionNight @KITV4 pic.twitter.com/6Lh2hCS2Vq— Tom George (@TheTomGeorge) November 9, 2022
    Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican leader, addressed supporters after an hours-long delay.The California congressman projected confidence that Republicans would take the House despite several dozen seats still undecided. “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” he told supporters in Washington.After a few key Democratic wins dashed expectations of an easy Republican sweep, McCarthy pointed to GOP wins in contested races in Texas and Virginia. Democrats have also kept seats in key Virginia districts, as well as contested seats in Kansas and Rhode Island.In Nevada, tight races might not be known for days, officials said. Dani Anguiano reports:Nevada Democrats and Republicans have urged patience as residents await to hear the outcome of several razor-thin elections, including the Senate race, one of the tightest in the country.Full results will not come in tonight, officials have said, and may not be known for several days. By 11:30pm PST, returns showed incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto ahead with about 51.2% of the votes to Republican Adam Laxalt’s 46% with 47% of precincts reporting, a lead expected to shrink.“I am confident in the campaign that we have built to win,” Cortez Masto said. “I am so grateful to every Nevadan who knocked down doors, who made phone calls and stood up and fought for our state.”The votes are still being counted. We know this will take time and we won’t have more election results for several days. I am confident in this team. I’m confident in the campaign that we’ve built to win. ¡La lucha sigue!— Catherine Cortez Masto (@CortezMasto) November 9, 2022
    Laxalt, Nevada’s former attorney general who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2018, said “we are exactly where we want to be in this race.“When we win this race, I’m gonna support our police and fight to make our streets safe again. I will not rest until we’ve secured our southern border,” he said. “We’re in for a long night and even a few days but we’re confident we’re gonna win this race and take back Nevada and take back America.”Sam Levine in Detroit reports: We don’t have all of the results yet, but election day did not appear to go particularly well for election deniers in competitive races.In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, who played a key role in Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, lost his re-election bid to Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who put defending democracy at the start of his campaign. Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state who staunchly defended the 2020 election results also defeated Kristina Karamo, who rose to prominence after she spread false claims about fraud after ballots were counted in Detroit in 2020.“Well, well, well, democracy has prevailed,” Benson said as she took the stage at a Democratic victory party in downtown Detroit around midnight Wednesday. “Today Michigan voters showed the world that they will vote for truth over lies, facts over conspiracy theories, real results over empty promises.”Election deniers also lost races to be the top election official in New Mexico and Minnesota. Votes were still being counted in Nevada early Wednesday morning, where there is also a closely-watched secretary of state race.Democrat Tony Evers has won reelection for governor in Wisconsin, the AP has projected.CNN had previously called the race in a crucial battleground state. Evers defeated Trump-backed construction executive Tim Michels, and will be a key counterbalance against the state Republicans’ efforts to take control of the election system. Michels had said he would try to decertify the 2020 presidential results in Wisconsin, despite there being no legal mechanism to do so.Evers has been a key veto against Republican legislators’ efforts to disrupt election systems. That veto power may not hold if Republicans win a supermajority in the legislature, but it’s unclear if they will.Evers campaign was boosted in its final days by a visit from Barack Obama.“Some people call it boring, but as it turns out, Wisconsin, boring wins,” he said in his victory speech.The AP has called a few more House races in favor of Democrats. In a fiercely contested race in New York, Democratic representative Joseph Morelle fended off a challenge from Republican former police chief La’Ron Singletary. In Michigan, Hillary Scholten defeated former Trump administration housing official and far-right election denier John Gibbs. And in Ohio, Republican representative Steve Chabot lost his seat to Democrat Greg Landsman.New Mexico’s Democratic governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has won reelection, defeating Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti.Lujan Grisham honed in on the issue of abortion access. “Tonight New Mexico said ‘no’ to a political crusade that wants to turn women into second-class citizens,” she said in a victory speech.A former member of Congress and state health secretary, she was favored to win. Ronchetti, a former television meteorologist who never held elected office, had sought to distance himself from his party’s far-right policies, but fell short.Organizers claimed victory after Michigan voters appeared well on their way to approving a constitutional amendment that would significantly expand voting access and make it much harder for anyone to try and overturn the results of an election.The Guardian’s Sam Levine in Detroit reports:The measure, Proposal 2, establishes a fundamental right to vote in the Michigan constitution requires at least nine days of voting access and drop boxes, and allows voters to sign an affidavit if they lack photo ID, among other measures. And most significantly, it prevents officials from certifying an election based on anything other than the vote tally. That’s a huge deal in Michigan, where boards of canvassers nearly refused to certify the vote in 2020 at the county and statewide level without solid evidence.With 62% of the vote in early Wednesday, yes votes for the measure led 57.7% to 42.3%The measure’s passage marks the latest victory in a significantly growing grassroots voting rights movement in Michigan. In 2018, voters approved a constitutional amendment creating an independent redistricting commission and allowing for automatic and same-day registration.“Michigan voters clearly support ensuring every voice is heard and every vote is counted in every election no matter what political party or candidate we support, where we live or what we look like,” Micheal Davis, executive director for Promote the Vote, the coalition behind the amendment, said in a statement.Nancy Pelosi has issued a statement hailing an unexpectedly good performance by Democrats, even as votes are still being counted:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country.
    As states continue to tabulate the final results, every vote must be counted as cast.
    Many thanks to our grassroots volunteers for enabling every voter to have their say in our Democracy. More

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    Midterm elections 2022: US voters head to polls as Republicans fight to take Senate control – live

    Here’s some helpful context for Tuesday’s midterm elections and what it could mean for Democrats’ control of Congress, from the Guardian’s Chris McGreal and Joan E Greve.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The Biden administration was braced for a bad night on Tuesday as the US midterm election results threatened to rob the Democrats of control of Congress, just as former president Donald Trump appears ready to announce another run for the White House.
    But the Democrats were holding out hope that they might just retain control of the US Senate if a handful of closely fought races fell their way.
    The final results, which will determine control of Congress for the remainder of Biden’s first term as president and further constrain his legislative agenda, could take days or even weeks in some closely fought Senate races. Delayed results are likely to fuel legal challenges and conspiracy theories about vote-rigging, particularly if the remaining seats determine control of the Senate.
    The ground was already being laid in Pennsylvania, where a close US Senate race is being fought between Mehmet Oz, a Trump-backed Republican, and Democrat John Fetterman, who has been battling to assure voters he is fit for office after a stroke. Earlier on election day on Tuesday, the agency overseeing the voting in Philadelphia said it will delay counting thousands of paper ballots because of a Republican lawsuit that said the process was open to duplicate voting.
    Dozens of Republican candidates for the Senate, the House of Representatives and other major offices have refused to confirm that they will accept the result if they lose amid a swirl of false claims of fraud, stemming from Trump’s assertion that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him and kept alive by the Republican party leadership.Read the full article here. US midterms: Democrats pin Senate hopes on tightly fought racesRead moreMore reporting on Californians voting on Proposition 30, from the Guardian’s Maanvi SinghCalifornians are voting today on a ballot measure that would tax the state’s richest residents in an effort to get more electric vehicles on the road.The measure, Proposition 30, would hike taxes by 1.75% on those earning $2m or more annually to raise between $3bn and $5bn annually to subsidize households, businesses and schools; buy zero-emission cars, trucks and buses; fund infrastructure to charge electric vehicles; and bolster wildfire prevention efforts.Proponents of the measure, including the coalition of environmental and labor groups that developed it, say the tax would provide urgently needed funds to hasten the transition to zero-emission vehicles, and reduce the disproportionate burden of pollution on low-income, minority communities across the state.Detractors, including the California governor, Gavin Newsom, claim the proposal is a corporate carve-out for Lyft, the ride-hailing company that has backed the measure and helped fund its campaign.Read more about Proposition 30 and the fraught battle over it here: A California measure would tax the rich to fund electric vehicles. Why is the governor against it?Read moreThe latest on Los Angeles’ mayoral race, from the Guardian’s Lois BeckettBy the time Los Angeles residents headed to polls on Tuesday, mayoral hopeful and billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso had poured more than $100m of his own fortune into his campaign to become the city’s next leader.Caruso, who’s battling Congresswoman Karen Bass in a closely contested race, has backed his own campaign with $101m as of late last week, campaign ethics filing show, outspending his opponent by more than 10 to one.The developer, who is running a pro-police, tough-on-crime campaign, came in second to Bass, a former community organizer and leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, in the city’s June primary.But Bass’ strong lead over Caruso in recent weeks evaporated, according to a recent poll of likely voters, with her 45% to 41% lead over Caruso within the poll’s margin of error.Caruso, who has an estimated net worth of $5.3bn, is nearing a mayoral campaign record set by billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who spent $109m of his own money to win his third term as mayor of New York City in 2009. Total political spending of more than $120m on a mayoral race is a striking sum, especially for a contest in which the key issue is LA’s homelessness. There are at least 41,000 unhoused people in Los Angeles county, many of them unsheltered, and living, in tents, cars, RVs and makeshift structures. Bass has repeatedly attacked Caruso’s campaign spending, saying that if she had $90m or $100m to spend, she would spend it on affordable housing.Rick Caruso has spent $90 million lying about himself and lying about me.I was just asked if I had $90 million, what I would do with it.The answer is simple: I would build housing for thousands of people who sleep on our streets every night. Right away. Without hesitation.— Karen Bass (@KarenBassLA) November 1, 2022
    Concerns over the spread of misinformation and disinformation on social media platforms are a recurring theme of each election but with the recent mass layoffs at Twitter following Elon Musk’s acquisition of the platform civil liberties groups are particularly on high alert. The company laid off a reported 50% of the workforce or an estimated 3,700 workers last week just days before the midterms. Twitter’s head of safety and integrity, Yoel Roth said that layoffs affected 15% of the company’s trust and safety team which is charged with moderating content including combating misinformation. That has the leaders of civil liberties groups such as Color of Change, Free Press and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, who met with Musk to discuss how Twitter will deal with hate speech, convinced that the company will not be sufficiently staffed to handle attempts to mislead voters today. “Retaining and enforcing election-integrity measures requires an investment in the human expert staff, factcheckers, and moderators, who are being shown the door today,” said Jessica J González, co-CEO of Free Press.While it’s still early in the day, months-old viral videos and tweets falsely claiming Republicans were being barred from the polls have already been recirculated today, according to the Washington Post. Pennsylvania is at the heart of the battle for control of Congress and key governorships across the country. To get a sense of Democrats’ political fortunes in this consequential battleground, I spoke to Ed Rendell, a former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania.Rendell is bullish on the governor’s race, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has maintained a consistent lead over his Republican opponent, the election-denying conservative Doug Mastriano. But he has jitters about the Senate race between John Fetterman, the Democrat, and Mehmet Oz, the Republican, which is rated a toss up. Key to the race, he says, is Black voter turnout in cities like Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh. If Democrats fail to mobilize this crucial constituency, it will be hard, if not impossible, for them to eke out a win in a close contest. Rendell is hopeful Obama’s visit to the state on Saturday will have a “dramatic impact” on turnout, especially among Black voters, by reminding voters of the stakes and making the affirmative case for electing Democrats. And he does not believe, as some in his party do, that Biden’s campaign appearance in Philadelphia on Saturday, alongside Obama, Fetterman and Shapiro, will hurt the Democratic ticket, In fact, he said it’s possible that the enduring affection for Biden in places like Scranton, where the president was born, may help boost support for Democrats in that industrial corner of the state.“If you don’t like Joe Biden and you want to send him a message … you vote against him, but not because he appears with Fetterman,” Rendell said. “That doesn’t change anybody’s mind.”Biden and Obama make last-ditch effort as Democrats’ mood darkensRead moreThe Guardian’s Abené Clayton, reporting on voting conditions from Los AngelesA winter storm has brought days of rain, snow and flood warnings to southern and northern California, and while it may have ended California’s fire season it also has led midterm election hopefuls to implore voters to defy the conditions to cast their ballots.There are more questions than clear answers around the impact that weather has on voter turnout and ultimately the results of an election, but candidates aren’t leaving anything up to chance or people’s instincts to stay dry, warm and off of wet roads.“Since we don’t like rain, I have to make sure that people vote. We can’t lose this election because of the rain. That would be crazy,” Karen Bass, the progressive candidate for mayor of Los Angeles, said during a pre-election day Instagram live interview with the actor Rosario Dawson.On the other side of the state, Brooke Jenkins, San Francisco’s interim district attorney who is running to retain her seat, is calling on people to come out to the polls, “rain or shine”.Happy Election Day! Rain or shine, we are working across San Francisco today to get out the vote! Polls close at 8PM. Please go vote and take a friend or family member (or two or three) to the polls with you! You can find your polling place here: https://t.co/UeOxfVuedn pic.twitter.com/ExE3C2FHyF— Brooke Jenkins 謝安宜 (@BrookeJenkinsSF) November 8, 2022
    Matt Gunderson, a Southern California state senate candidate whose campaign promises include repealing laws that downgrades crimes from felonies to misdemeanors.Rain or shine it’s Election Day!This morning my family got up bright and early to make it to the polls before an afternoon of final campaigning. Doing your civic duty is so much fun when you get to do it with the ones you love. Happy Election Day!#gowithgunderson pic.twitter.com/WdRBgBmcjL— Matt Gunderson (@GundersonForCA) November 8, 2022
    Donald Trump, who lost Arizona in 2020, has weighed in on the tabulation machine issues in Maricopa county.Trump posted on Truth Social, saying the machine problems were mostly affecting conservative or Republican areas. It’s not clear exactly which sites have been experiencing the tabulation problems, but voters around the county have reported them.“Can this possibly be true when a vast majority of Republicans waited for today to Vote? Here we go again? The people will not stand for it!!!” Trump wrote.Trump is already starting his messaging that the election is fraud via Truth Social. pic.twitter.com/4m8MGavEO5— Ines Pohl (@inespohl) November 8, 2022
    Earlier on Tuesday, election officials in Maricopa County reported that about 20% of polling places in the county were experiencing problems.The Guardian’s Erum Salam reports on the voting situation in TexasThings are heating up in Texas, one of the most difficult states to cast a vote. Reports have emerged of voters being turned away from eight polling sites in Bell county, an area north-east of Austin, after check-in machines malfunctioned because of an issue relating to the time change.#BREAKING Voters being turned away at 8 polling sites in Bell County. Elections office says the equipment isn’t working – because of the time change.— Joey Horta (@JoeyHorta) November 8, 2022
    Bell county election officials requested an additional hour for voting from the Texas secretary of state due to the issues.At a time when doubt is being unnecessarily cast on the integrity of the American electoral process, Bell county does not inspire confidence in those already skeptical, but county officials told the Guardian that the issue with the machines only affected voters’ ability to check in, not their ability to vote.Bell county’s public information officer, James Stafford, said: “For some reason, computers at those eight locations did not automatically update to the new time. As a result, the central computer, recognizing a discrepancy, would not allow those devices to come online, and we were unable to open those sites to voters.The critical issue that we want to communicate is that we have not had any issues related to ballots or tabulation machines. The issue was limited to those check-in devices. I also would say that, seeing the work and the passion of both our elections and technology services staff as they worked diligently to get the issue resolved as quickly as possible.”Confidence in the electoral process is integral to the preservation of democracy and boosting that confidence has been the primary objective of some. The US Department of Justice announced yesterday it will send federal monitors to polling sites across the country, including three counties in Texas, to ensure smooth sailing on election day.During early voting, the Beaumont chapter of the NAACP alleged Black voters were being harassed and intimidated by election workers in Jefferson county. Jessica Daye, a local voter, alleged she witnessed other Black voters being shadowed by election workers who demanded they say their addresses out loud, despite already being checked in to vote.On Monday, Daye, the NAACP and The Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law filed a lawsuit and a federal judge issued an order prohibiting the discriminatory behavior.On the morning of election day, the Election Protection coalition – the nation’s oldest and largest non-partisan voter protection coalition – held a virtual press conference “outlining resources and guidance available to voters in need of information or facing intimidation at the polls”.On the call were leaders from the Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and the Texas Civil Rights Project, and top of the agenda was addressing any voting incidents at polling sites or ballot drop boxes in key states across the country.Lawyers’ Committee For Civil Rights Under Law called the incident in Beaumont “a gross instance of invasion of privacy and voter intimidation”.In the call, the Texas Civil Rights Project said it received more reports of machine malfunctions, voter intimidation, polling sites opening late, poll workers dressed in partisan attire in a few places, and issues with mail ballots that were either not received or rejected.Voting in Texas ends at 7pm central.As millions across the country voted on Tuesday, Joe Biden tweeted an encouragement for people to participate in elections. At the core of our democracy is a basic principle: the right to vote.With it, anything is possible.Vote today.— President Biden (@POTUS) November 8, 2022
    Behind the scenes, Biden also spoke with a number of key leaders in the Democratic party. From the White house press office: .css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This afternoon, the President spoke individually by phone with Democratic Governors Association Chair Roy Cooper, DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, DSCC Chair Gary Peters, and DNC Senior Advisor Cedric Richmond. He also spoke jointly to DNC Chair Jaime Harrison and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Carlisa Johnson reports on Joy to the Polls, an arts-based voting initiative in GeorgiaIn Georgia, young voters make up 17% of the state’s voting population. However, young voter turnout remained lower than in previous elections at the end of early voting. Now, the final get out the vote efforts are happening to capture young voters.Throughout the state, voting rights organizers are taking to the streets to help voters get to the polls, cast their votes and have their voices heard. Today, Joy to the Polls, an arts-based initiative, is making eight stops throughout the metro area to encourage voters to head to the polls and celebrate the joy of voting.“We all know that the system is broken and things need to be changed,” said Kaelyn Kastle one of the hosts for the event. “Young people have to understand that their vote does matter because we’ve seen how close elections can be.” pic.twitter.com/FfctRbMfQ7— Carlisa Johnson (@CarlisaNJohnson) November 8, 2022
    At its third stop of the day, Joy to the Polls featured a performance by recording artist Tate “Baby Tate” Farris in East Atlanta. Farris, a Georgia native, said she came out to remind young people to vote. “Young people have power. This is the opportunity to take that power that [they] have and use it by being active in the election process.”This initiative, which originated in 2020, creates party-like atmospheres at polling places throughout the state, hoping to ease the stress of the voting process. Kaelyn Kastle, co-host of the East Atlanta stop, believes events like Joy to the Polls are critical in places like Georgia, where elections are won by thin margins. “We all know that the system is broken, and things need to be changed,” said Kastle. “Young people have to understand that their vote does matter because we’ve seen how close elections in Georgia can be.”In East Atlanta, recording artist @imbabytate is taking the mobile stage as part of @JoyToThePolls a GOTV effort using the power of music to celebrate the importance of voting. pic.twitter.com/r7xwlPC9K0— Carlisa Johnson (@CarlisaNJohnson) November 8, 2022
    The Guardian’s Andrew Lawrence reports from Decatur, GeorgiaLong voter queues were hard to come by, a sign that can be taken one of two ways: either most residents are already part of the giant early turnout, or simply got turned around. “Because the polling places are different from the early voting locations, that’s caused some confusion,” says Karen “Mix” Mixon, vice-chair of the DeKalb County Democratic Committee.On a cloudless 75F day, Mixon stood outside an early voting location in the South Dekalb Mall to redirect voters toward their assigned polling place. With SB 202, the aggressive voter suppression law President Biden dubbed “Jim Crow 2.0”, finally baring its teeth on election day, Mixon notes mobilizer groups have to be extra careful about extending help this election cycle. “The law is you have to be 150ft from the building where people are voting, or 25 feet from voters who are standing in line to wait to vote,” Mixon says. “We ordered tape measures that are 150ft long and spray chalk, and we mark that off so that we are following the law.”With mobilizing groups forbidden from approaching voters to make sure they’re at the right place (much less offer them water), volunteers can basically only wave and smile and yell and hope lost voters approach them. Mixon made herself easy enough to find outside the mall with a sign urging passers by to remind friends to vote.The Guardian’s Andrew Lawrence reports from AtlantaMike South cast his ballot at Grace International Church with the economy top of mind. “My retirement has shrunk by 50%,” he said. To say he worked hard for it barely tells the story.After launching a decade long career at Nasa as computers expert following the Challenger explosion, South, 64, pivoted to directing and acting in adult movies before cementing his legend as an industry gossip columnist. In 2013, CNBC pronounced him one of porn’s 10 most powerful people.Porn drove his political engagement. “There was a time when free speech would’ve been an issue, especially in Atlanta,” he says. “Most of the people in my business are hardcore Democrats, but I kinda stand out because I’m more libertarian – which I would expect them to be.”South says he voted for libertarian candidates whenever possible, including in the senate race between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock. (“The truth is I don’t like either one of them,” he quipped, as his support dog Lola heeled.) Third-party voters could have a significant impact on that race, which is trending closer toward another senate runoff. A new Warnock ad tips voters to the possibility of having to return to the polls again over the holiday season. After being barraged with campaign ads for the past seven years, in the country, South winces at the thought of yet another trip to the polls. “I’m over it.”Election officials in Georgia’s largest county removed two workers from a polling site on the morning of Tuesday’s midterm races after their colleagues shared social media posts of the pair at the US Capitol attack on 6 January 2021. Fulton county elections officials told media outlets that they fired the workers – a mother and her son – about 15 minutes before the polls opened Tuesday morning. They had been assigned to a polling site at a library in the community of Johns Creek. The mother and son fell under scrutiny after the woman made a comment that caught the attention of a colleague while they were at an event for poll workers, Fulton county’s interim elections director, Nadine Williams, told the local news station WSB-TV. Colleagues of the woman also found social media posts by her which were reported to the county, WSB-TV added.Williams would not elaborate on the nature of the posts. But the Washington Post reported that it was provided with copies of the social media screeds in question, and they showed the woman’s family forming part of the mob of Donald Trump supporters who staged the Capitol attack. According to the newspaper, one of the posts read: “I stood up for what’s right today in Washington DC. This election was a sham. [Trump vice-president] Mike Pence is a traitor. I was tear gassed FOUR times. I have pepper spray in my throat. I stormed the Capitol building. And my children have had the best learning experience of their lives.”Trump supporters attacked the Capitol in a failed attempt to prevent the congressional certification of the former Republican president’s defeat to his Democratic rival Joe Biden in the 2020 election. One of the mob’s stated aims was to hang Pence after it falsely accused him of failing to avail himself of the ability to single-handedly prevent Biden’s certification.Officials have linked nine deaths to the insurrection, including suicides by law enforcement officers traumatized after successfully defending the building from the pro-Trump mob. Hundreds of participants have been charged criminally in connection with the attack, and many have either pleaded guilty or otherwise have been convicted over their roles.During the 2020 presidential race, Fulton county experienced long lines at the polls, administrative mistakes and death threats against election workers. The Washington Post reported that the turmoil during the election two years earlier prompted Fulton county to prepare for Tuesday’s midterms – which many regard as a referendum on American democracy – by assigning police to more than half of its 300 or so polling places, with other officers patrolling between sites. Georgia is holding some of Tuesday’s most-closely watched elections, including the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker that could determine which political party controls the US Senate. A rematch from the 2018 electoral showdown between incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams is also being watched nationwide on Tuesday.When Jeff Zapor showed up at his polling place in South Lyon, in the Detroit suburbs, on Tuesday, the most pressing race on his mind was the contest for secretary of state, the elected official who oversees voting and elections in Michigan.That in itself is extraordinary. Long overlooked downballot races, there has been an enormous amount of attention on secretary of state races since the 2020 election, when their role in overseeing vote counting came into focus as Donald Trump tried to overturn the election. Michigan is one of several states where the Republican nominee for secretary of state questioned and tried to overturned the results of the 2020 race.Standing outside his polling place, an elementary school, Michigan, Zapor said he voted for Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, who is running for a second term. She leads her opponent Kristina Karamo, a community college professor, in the polls.“I think election deniers on the ballot is a very dangerous thing,” Zapor, a 46-year-old mental health counselor said. “When you’re running on a platform of complete abject falsehoods, to me, that shows a complete lack of character. And you’re running for the exact wrong reason.”Zapor added that he was concerned that there could be a repeat of efforts to overturn the election, like there were in 2020.“I think it’s a certainty. I’m very concerned. Both in Michigan and in the nation, in 2024, I guess even in this election, will continue to be divisive and to see violence would not surprise me. I really hope I’m wrong, but that’s what I think,” he said.South Lyon is a competitive area in Oakland county, a battleground in Michigan.Another voter, who would only give his middle name, Alex, said he was also deeply concerned about election denialism. “I’m concerned in general that the truth in general has eluded us and many will continue to leverage what happened in 2020 and for false information in general,” he said.Another voter, who would only give his first name, Tom, said he voted for Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, because she was the “lesser of two evils.” He said he also voted for Benson, who sees the state’s motor vehicle offices in addition to elections, because he recently had a quick appointment renewing his driver’s license.“She did what she said he was going to do,” he said. More

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    Why Wall Street Loves Gridlock in Washington

    Stocks tend to rally after midterm elections, historical data shows. They perform even better when voters deliver divided government.“Midterm elections are one of the best historic buy signals.”Brendan Mcdermid/ReutersDivided we rise? It’s become a favorite data point among sell-side Wall Street historians: In the year after every midterm election since 1950, the S&P 500 has gone up, regardless of the party in power.“It’s no exaggeration to say that midterm elections are one of the best historic buy signals for equities we have,” Jim Reid, a markets strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a client note this morning.Even better: Stocks tend to outperform when there’s a divided government. According to LPL Financial, since 1950, the S&P 500 has outperformed (on a 52-week basis) whenever voters produce the power scenario of a split or Republican-controlled Congress and a Democratic president. (The benchmark S&P has climbed 17.5 percent in those years versus an overall average annual return of 12.3 percent.) That combination is looking more likely this morning, with the polls suggesting that the Republicans will most likely take control of the House, while the Senate is a tossup.As always, past performance is no indicator for future gains (or losses). Still, it’s worth examining how politics and investor psychology have tended to influence the markets after midterm elections over the past eight decades.There are two central reasons markets rally after the midterms. First, say the LPL markets strategists Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder, “uncertainty associated with the election is behind us, and markets don’t like uncertainty.” More crucially, investors view the midterms as “something of a course correction from presidential elections.” If the opposing party gains ground, it’s more likely businesses and investors will see greater “prospects of a better policy balance ahead, regardless of who is in the Oval Office.”One result: ambitious tax and government spending increases would be off the table, a scenario that could buoy corporate profits, according to Brian Gardner, the chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, an investment bank and wealth management firm. A potential drawback? It could open the door to a debt-ceiling standoff, higher odds of a government shutdown and partisan paralysis when it comes to trying to get stuff done — i.e., a fiscal spending plan to lift the country out of a looming recession.The way-too-early winners and losers view: The energy and defense sectors would do well, Gardner says. Big Pharma could also benefit, if Republicans succeed in rolling back Medicare’s ability to negotiate on prescription drug prices, a key pillar of the Inflation Reduction Act. A potential loser is Big Tech, which has critics in both parties.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Donald Trump drops a hint about 2024. The former president stole the spotlight at a rally in Ohio, telling supporters in a speech for J.D. Vance, the Republican Senate candidate, that he would make “a very big announcement on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago.” The comments fueled speculation that he was gearing up for another White House run.FTT, the digital coin tied to the leading crypto exchange FTX, plunges. The token has lost nearly a quarter of its value in the past day. It is also raising fears about more instability in crypto land, causing drops in Bitcoin, Ether and Solana. Alameda Research, the hedge fund operated by the crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried, has big holdings in FTT and Solana.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Final Landscape: As candidates make their closing arguments, Democrats are bracing for potential losses even in traditionally blue corners of the country as Republicans predict a red wave.The Battle for Congress: With so many races on edge, a range of outcomes is still possible. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, breaks down four possible scenarios.Voting Worries: Even as voting goes smoothly, fear and suspicion hang over the process, exposing the toll former President Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods have taken on American democracy.Nvidia starts selling a China-only chip. The U.S. chip-maker is reportedly selling an alternative to a high-end chip banned from sale in China under new American export restrictions. Meanwhile, Apple’s warning that it would not be able to produce enough iPhones for the holiday season because of Covid-19 lockdowns in China highlights how enmeshed the tech giant is there, even as many of its Western peers are shut out.The owners of Liverpool F.C. put the soccer club up for sale. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have been hired to sell the franchise, one of the most popular worldwide. The club could sell for far more than the $3 billion that Chelsea fetched this year; Forbes values Liverpool at nearly $4.5 billion.Elizabeth Holmes is denied a new trial. A federal judge that the Theranos founder’s arguments for a new one didn’t introduce any new evidence. Holmes is set to be sentenced on Nov. 18 on four counts of criminal fraud.Activists at COP27 in Egypt.Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesMoney matters dominate COP One of the big questions to emerge so far from COP27: Who is paying for efforts to combat global warming, and is it fair? Here’s what’s happening at the gathering in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt:The Switzerland plan — pay poorer countries to reduce their carbon emissions, then claim credits toward its own carbon footprint — is drawing scrutiny.Egypt may be hosting a conference dedicated to reducing carbon emissions, but it’s eager to sell fossil fuels to Europe to raise money for its debt-ridden economy.Climate activists are protesting Coke’s sponsorship of COP27, pointing to its increasing use of plastics.A new study by Oxfam said that the world’s 125 wealthiest individuals collectively produce 393 million tons in annual carbon emissions — or 3 million tons each on average.Musk, and the power of one Is Elon Musk’s frenetic management style, which is often punctuated by a daily tweet barrage (including a now-deleted one engaging with a quote from a white nationalist), a sign of genius, or an indication that he’s in over his head? Yesterday, the prominent venture capitalist Chris Sacca, an early Twitter investor, spoke on the matter.“One of the biggest risks of wealth/power is no longer having anyone around you who can push back, give candid feedback, suggest alternatives, or just simply let you know you’re wrong,” he wrote.Musk’s management of Twitter has been chaotic. He pushed for a huge round of layoffs, only to ask some of those workers to return. He delayed the rollout of Twitter’s subscription product amid internal pushback. Advertisers have paused their spending. While Musk says Twitter usage is at a record high, others point to potentially troubling data. And just yesterday, he publicly urged independent voters to back Republican candidates in today’s midterm elections.Others are seizing on the moment: The news publisher Axios has promoted its newsletters to potential advertisers as a “well-lit alternative to Twitter,” according to an email to ad buyers obtained by DealBook.Many of his supporters remain in his corner. The investor Ron Baron, an early Tesla investor, told CNBC that the opportunities at Twitter were “gigantic.” Meanwhile, Musk allies in charge at Twitter include his personal lawyer and a crowd nicknamed “Elon’s goons.” Sacca was unimpressed: “I’ve recently watched those around him become increasingly sycophantic and opportunistic.”Sacca sees a corollary in Travis Kalanick, Uber’s co-founder. In 2017, Kalanick resigned from the ride-hailing company after shareholders revolted over a toxic workplace culture. Other tech founders have been similarly humbled: Musk was fired from PayPal in 2000.To be clear, Sacca isn’t calling for Musk to leave Twitter. “I really want this thing to work,” he tweeted. “The only way I see that happening is if anyone around Elon can speak some truth to power and complement his bold and ambitious instincts with desperately needed nuance.”In fashion, green clashes with antitrustFashion brands are under pressure to go green. But an effort by some big houses to collaborate on sustainability initiatives has put them in the cross hairs of antitrust authorities, with European regulators claiming that some attempts may have resembled collusion, write The Times’s Lizzie Paton and Jenny Gross, and DealBook’s Ephrat Livni.The coronavirus pandemic inspired fashion to rethink its practices. During lockdowns, a group of clothing executives and designers spoke on Zoom about limiting waste, and went on to publish ambitious statements in 2020 on making the industry more environmentally friendly. But those declarations set off alarm bells in Brussels: E.U. antitrust regulators raided unnamed fashion houses in May, stating that the targets may have violated rules against price fixing and created a cartel. (People at several of the companies confirmed they had been contacted. The brands declined to comment, and the E.U. has not publicly identified them.)Many sustainability policies would end up raising prices and reducing quantity, said Hill Wellford, a former antitrust official at the Justice Department now at the law firm Vinson & Elkins. “Multiple client consortiums have called me about making agreements for environmental purposes,” he said, “and I have to say to them, ‘Those are dangerous to do.’”The clash between sustainability and competition policy is hot political fodder. “Congress will increasingly use its oversight powers to scrutinize the institutionalized antitrust violations being committed in the name of E.S.G.,” Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, and others wrote in a Nov. 3 letter to 51 major law firms advising clients on environmental practices. With Republicans likely to win back at least one chamber in the midterm elections, conservative lawmakers are gearing up for more of these kinds of fights.“Inside counsel at major companies who really want to be sustainability leaders see antitrust as their biggest hurdle,” Amelia Miazad, an expert in sustainable capitalism and the founder of the Business in Society Institute at Berkeley Law, told The Times. “Companies cannot continue to produce products for consumers in the future unless they’re able to collaborate.”THE SPEED READ DealsThe actor Matthew McConaughey reportedly may join a potential bid by Jeff Bezos and Jay-Z for the N.F.L.’s Washington Commanders. (N.Y. Post)Investment losses at Tiger Global’s flagship hedge fund have grown to nearly 55 percent as the firm’s bets on tech companies and on China suffered. (FT)Foxconn will invest $170 million in the electric truck maker Lordstown Motors. (WSJ)SoftBank’s C.E.O., Masayoshi Son, reportedly plans to put an end to his memorably unusual earnings presentations. (WSJ)PolicyThe Justice Department seized Bitcoin once valued at nearly $3.4 billion from a man who pleaded guilty to stealing from the Silk Road online black-market bazaar. (WSJ)Oil companies have called Britain “fiscally unstable” as its government weighs a windfall tax on the industry. (FT)The Supreme Court’s conservative justices signaled that they were open to further limiting the power of federal regulators like the S.E.C. (NYT)Best of the restJohn Tyson, the C.F.O. of the meat processor Tyson Foods, was arrested after he reportedly became intoxicated and fell asleep in the wrong house. (CNBC)British companies have an “appalling” shortfall of women in executive positions, according to new research. (FT)Inside the messy split — Rolexes and handbags held as hostages and more — of Rome’s soccer legend and his estranged wife. (NYT)John Foley, Peloton’s co-founder and former C.E.O., has found his next act: selling custom rugs directly to consumers. (Insider)Evelyn de Rothschild, who helped unite branches of his family’s banking dynasty and advised the British government and Queen Elizabeth II, has died. He was 91. (Bloomberg)Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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    Midterm elections: the candidates who will make history if they win

    Midterm elections: the candidates who will make history if they winElections could usher in a younger and more diverse Congress in the House and governor’s mansions across the US American voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to cast ballots in the crucial midterm elections, and a number of candidates will make history if they prevail in their races.In particular, the departure of 46 members from the House of Representatives has created an opening for a new class of young and diverse candidates to seek federal office.Two House candidates, Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida and Republican Karoline Leavitt of New Hampshire, would become the first Gen Z members of Congress if they win their elections. Leavitt would also set a record as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress if she can defeat Democrat Chris Pappas in their hotly contested race, which is considered a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.In Vermont, Democrat Becca Balint is favored to win her House race, which would make her the first woman and the first openly LGBTQ+ politician to represent the state in Congress. If Balint wins, all 50 US states will have sent at least one woman to Congress, as Vermont became the sole outlier on that metric in 2018.Some House races will even make history regardless of which party’s candidate prevails. In New York’s third congressional district, either Democrat Robert Zimmerman or Republican George Devolder-Santos will become the first openly gay person to represent Long Island in the House.As Republicans look to take back the House, their playbook has relied upon nominating a diverse slate of candidates in battleground districts that will probably determine control of the lower chamber. The strategy builds upon the party’s momentum from 2020, when Republicans flipped 14 House districts where they nominated a woman or a person of color.Overall, Republicans have nominated 67 candidates of color in House races, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee. Those candidates could allow the party to dramatically expand its ranks of members of color, given that just 19 non-white Republicans serve in the House now. With Republicans heavily favored to take back the House, many of those candidates of color could join the new session of Congress in January.Latina Republicans have performed particularly well in primary races, with several of them expected to win their general elections as well. The nominations of candidates like Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th congressional district and Yesli Vega in Virginia’s seventh district, which is another tossup race, led Vox to declare 2022 to be “the year of the Latina Republican”.“Republicans have an all-star class of candidates who represent the diversity of our country,” Tom Emmer, chair of the NRCC, said late last month. “These candidates are going to win on election day and they will deliver for the American people.”Republicans’ strategy of nominating people of color in some key House races comes even as members of the party continue to make headlines for their racist comments on the campaign trail. For example, Republican senator Tommy Tubberville of Alabama was widely denounced last month after he suggested Democrats support reparations for the descendants of enslaved people because “they think the people that do the crime are owed that”.And while Republicans boast about the diversity of this year’s class of candidates, Democrats’ House caucus remains much more racially diverse. Fifty-eight Black Democrats serve in the House currently, compared to two incumbent Black Republicans. Similarly, House Republicans hope to double their number of Latino members, which now stands at seven, but 33 Latino Democrats currently serve in the lower chamber.Beyond Congress, several gubernatorial candidates are eying the history books. Two Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Maura Healey in Massachusetts and Tina Kotek in Oregon, would become the first openly lesbian women governors in US history if they are successful on Tuesday. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the former White House press secretary under Donald Trump, will also likely be the first woman to win the Arkansas governorship.Stacey Abrams had hoped to make her mark as the first Black woman to serve as Georgia’s governor, but incumbent Republican Brian Kemp has pulled ahead in the polls. Other candidates like Oklahoma Democrat Madison Horn, who would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate, also face long-shot odds of prevailing on Tuesday.But even if certain historic candidates do not succeed, it appears certain that the halls of Congress and governor’s mansions across America will look a bit different after 8 November.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022US politicsHouse of RepresentativesRaceLGBTQ+ rightsnewsReuse this content More

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    Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?

    Midterms scenarios: will Republicans take the Senate and the House?A handful of general scenarios could play out on Tuesday, each having huge significance for Biden and Donald Trump As Americans go to the polls on Tuesday they are voting in what Joe Biden has framed as a vital test for American democracy in the face of a Republican party fielding candidates who buy into the big lie of a stolen 2020 election.Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to capitalize on widespread economic anxiety in the face of rising inflation as well as stoking culture war themes and fears over crime, often spilling over into racism and intolerance.Why the US midterms matter – from abortion rights to democracyRead moreMillions of voters are casting their ballot as Republicans and Democrats fight for control of Congress, numerous state governorships as well as many local offices and ballot initiatives on issues like abortion.A handful of general scenarios could play out, each having momentous significance for the Biden presidency and the tactics of a resurgent Republican party and its de facto leader Donald Trump.Republicans win the House, Democrats hold the SenateIn a split decision, expect Republicans to thwart Biden’s legislative agenda and launch a flurry of congressional investigations, for example into the botched military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son Hunter’s business dealings in China and Ukraine. Trump ally Jim Jordan might take the lead.A Republican majority would also doom the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. They might even seek revenge by launching a counter-investigation into telecom companies that handed over phone records to the committee or into members of the panel themselves.Policy-wise, Republicans could seek to reverse some major accomplishments of Biden’s first two years, such as climate spending, student loan forgiveness and corporate tax increases.Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader and current favourite to become House speaker, has told Punchbowl News that Republicans would use a future battle over raising the national debt ceiling as leverage to force cuts in public spending.McCarthy has also warned that the party will not write a “blank cheque” for Ukraine, while Marjorie Taylor Greene, expected to be a prominent figure in the Republican caucus, told a rally in Iowa: “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.”But a Democratic-controlled Senate would be able to continue rubber-stamping Biden’s nominations for cabinet secretaries and federal judges.Republicans win House and SenateDespite polarisation in Washington, Biden has so far achieved some bipartisan victories on infrastructure, gun safety, health benefits for veterans and manufacturing investments to compete with China. But Republicans would be less likely to allow him further wins as the next presidential election draws closer.Instead, expect a new antagonism between the White House and Congress. A Republican-controlled Senate could slow down or block Biden’s judicial nominees, including if there is an unexpected opening on the supreme court.Conversely, Republican attempts to harden rules on immigration, gun rights or ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports would surely be met by a Biden presidential veto.The Republican policy agenda remains nebulous. Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader in the Senate, has resisted publishing a platform, fuelling criticism that the party has a cult of personality around Trump.Former president Barack Obama told a recent rally in Atlanta, Georgia: “These days, right now, just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things: owning the libs and getting Donald Trump’s approval.”Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, did publish a 12-point plan that includes forcing poorer Americans who do not currently pay income tax to do so and reauthorising social security and Medicare every five years instead of allowing the programmes to continue automatically.And Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced a bill to create a national ban on abortions at 15 weeks, dividing Republicans and infuriating progressive activists. If far-right members put it to a vote, Senate Democrats would be sure to filibuster it.The White House, meanwhile, would be forced on the defensive against a slew of congressional investigations into Afghanistan, Hunter Biden and other targets.Democrats hold House and SenateThis would be a huge surprise and defy historical trends. Opinion pollsters would be crying into their beer, fearing that their industry is well and truly broken.A Democratic sweep would give Joe Biden a mandate to enact a sweeping agenda that would again invite comparisons with former presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.Biden said last month that, if Democrats win control of Congress, the first bill he sends to Capitol Hill next year would codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 supreme court decision that overturned the constitutional right to abortion. The party could also push for national protections for same-sex marriage and voting rights.The president wants further actions on gun safety including a ban on assault weapons. He could seek to resurrect elements of his Build Back Better agenda, including more climate measures and expanding the social safety net, and make another attempt to tackle racial discrimination in policing.And some Democrats are drafting legislation to prevent Trump from running for president in 2024 due to his instigation of the January 6 insurrection, the New York Times reported, although that would be a long shot.But much would depend on how big – or small – the Democratic majority turns out to be. If it is slender, the conservative Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona could once again call the shots and frustrate the president’s ambitions.TopicsUS newsUS politicsUS midterm elections 2022House of RepresentativesUS CongressDemocratsRepublicansnewsReuse this content More

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    We Don’t Know What Will Happen on Election Day, but We Do Know How We’ll Feel About It

    Gail Collins: OK, Bret — it’s elections week! Tell me the one outcome you’re most hoping to see and the one you’re most dreading.Bret Stephens: The idea of Herschel Walker being elected a United States senator is the political equivalent of E.L. James, the author of “Fifty Shades of Grey,” being awarded the Nobel Prize for literature: the preposterous elevation of the former equals the total debasement of the latter.On the other hand, and despite my reservations about him, I’m rooting for Lee Zeldin for New York governor. Our state is overtaxed, underpoliced and chronically misgoverned, and I’d like to see it the other way around. And a Republican victory in New York might finally jolt the Democratic Party into getting serious about crime and urban decay.You?Gail: Zeldin is awful. There are New York Republicans you could imagine running the state well, and there are New York Republicans who will inevitably create a mess of political polarization and stalled services. Mr. Z is definitely in that category.Bret: I would be more inclined to agree with you about the overly Trumpy Zeldin — until I consider his opponent, the uninspired, ethically challenged and insipid Kathy Hochul.Gail: In my rooting-for category, I’m going to bring up Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire — just so I can mention her dreadful opponent, Don Bolduc. He’s long been known as an opponent of legal protections for transgender people. Last week, he claimed schools were giving out litter boxes to support kids who identify as cats. Which is, um … not true.Who’s your most-to-be-avoided?Bret: I’m with you on Hassan, a conscientious and bipartisan legislator. Who — I am amazed to say — might lose on Tuesday. As for my most-to-be-avoided? I’d have to go with Arizona’s Blake Masters. He gives me the sense of being the love child of Ayn Rand and Hans Gruber, the Alan Rickman character in “Die Hard.”Gail: I adore it when you get mean about people like ol’ Blake.Bret: Actually, that’s probably unfair to Gruber, who had a twinkle-in-the-eye panache that made his villainy interesting and often funny. Masters is neither interesting nor funny, and his only talent seems to consist in sucking up to rich guys.Gail: You would be referring to Peter Thiel, billionaire co-founder of PayPal and backer of rancid Republicans.Bret: And Donald Trump — assuming he’s actually rich. Let me ask you a different question: Is there any Republican in this whole election cycle you might see yourself supporting?Gail: This goes back to the question I’ve been wrestling with since the world watched that Fetterman-Oz debate.There are plenty of decent Republicans running for Senate, and some who are smarter than their Democratic opponents. And at least one Republican who can out-debate a Democrat who’s recovering from a stroke. But they all share one thing — they’d immediately vote to put their party in power.Bret: They do tend to do that.Gail: And that’s the crucial question this season — which party will be in charge? Right now the partisan rift is so deep you really have to decide which side you want to run the show and let that be your guide.Does that make sense to you?Bret: Yes and no. I powerfully sympathize with the impulse to oppose everyone who belongs to the party of Trump. But the idea of voting for your own side, no matter how lousy the candidate, also explains how Republicans talk themselves into voting for Trump, Walker, Bolduc, Masters and the rest of the evil clown parade. Parties should not be rewarded by voters when they sink to the lowest common denominator.But … predictions! Any upsets you see coming?Gail: When I worry about election results my thoughts almost always turn to Arizona, land of the you-never-can-tell voter. You’ve got Senator Mark Kelly neck-and-neck with Blake Masters. The only positive thing I can think of to say about Masters is that he hasn’t yet expressed any deep concern about litter boxes in public schools.But the most terrifying Arizona race is for governor, where Kari Lake, a former TV anchor and current election denier, appears to be leading Katie Hobbs, the responsible but sorta boring secretary of state. Do not want to imagine the vote-counting crisis there in 2024 if Lake wins.Bret: I’m going to venture that Lake is going to win handily and that Masters will win by a hair.Gail: Aaauuughhh.Bret: Part of my overall prediction that Democrats will wake up on Wednesday morning with a powerful impulse to move to Canada or Belgium to take advantage of their permissive assisted-suicide programs.Gail: And what would your own reaction be, pray tell? I know you theoretically support the Republican Senate agenda, but I’ve noticed you find a lot of the Republican senators kinda … repulsive.Bret: Again, very mixed feelings. Seeing the Republican Party go from bad to worse is depressing and scary. But as long as Joe Biden is president they won’t be able to do much except embarrass themselves.If there’s one saving grace for me here, it’s the faint hope that a Republican majority in at least one house of Congress will pump the brakes on spending. Our gross national debt is $31 trillion and rising. And it’s going to cost more to service as interest rates rise.Gail: I’m touched to hear you express such confidence that the Republicans we’ve seen on the hustings this year are going to be able to come up with a smart plan to completely redo government spending.Bret: Fair point.Gail: My first response to the idea of sane Republican spending policy is sad giggles.But I do feel obliged to offer at least one suggestion. The best way to tackle debt issues is not to cancel Covid relief or stop fixing the nation’s infrastructure. Tax the folks who can afford it, like those pharmaceutical billionaires who’ve done so very well off the pandemic.Bret: Not sure these billionaires could pay off so many trillions in debt, even if we confiscated every penny they have.Gail: It would be a start, and I suspect that even under a very serious new tax plan they’d be left with enough coins in their pockets to allow them to soldier on.But speaking of good/bad government spending plans, what do you think about recent Republican calls to cut back on Social Security and Medicare entitlements?Bret: The devil is in the details. Regarding Social Security, it was designed in the 1930s, when the typical life expectancy was around 60. It’s now around 76. The program is predicted to be insolvent in about 13 years if we do nothing to change it. My basic view is that we should honor our promises to those now benefiting from Social Security, pare back the promises to younger workers and eliminate them completely for those who haven’t yet spent decades paying into them.How about you?Gail: I say leave Social Security alone. It was meant to help protect Americans who reach retirement age, give them a reliable cushion to make their old age comfortable or at least bearable. Can’t do much better than that.The fact that it’s seen as a plan for everybody — not just a program to aid the poor — gives it a special survivability. And on the fairness end, wealthy folk who don’t need it will give a good chunk back when it’s taxed as part of their income.Bret: True, but it’s still going broke.Gail: Of course I’m not crazy enough to say the government can never touch Social Security if its finances get truly shaky. I just want to be sure whoever’s doing the fixing is dedicated to protecting the basic concept.And Medicare — oh gosh, Bret, let’s save Medicare for next week. It can be our postelection calming mechanism.Bret: Gail, I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but any thoughts on the news that Trump is very likely to declare his candidacy for president later this month?Gail: Now that was the immediate postelection conversation I was yearning to avoid. Of course we knew it was going to happen, but, gee, don’t you think he could have let us have the holidays off?Bret: I know very little about what goes on in Trump’s mind, but I think we can safely say that giving either of us a break isn’t high on his list of priorities.The silver lining here is that if Democrats take the kind of electoral drubbing I suspect they will on Tuesday, it should help concentrate their minds. Time for President Biden to give up on the idea — or fantasy, really — that he’s going to run for re-election and devote his time to saving Ukrainians, Iranians and Taiwanese from tyranny as the centerpiece of his presidential legacy.Gail: I’m with you in the Joe-Don’t-Run camp.Bret: Time also for party strategists to start thinking a whole lot harder about how they lost the working-class vote and how they can recapture it. Time, finally, for Democratic politicians to focus on middle-class fears about crime, education and inflation, not progressive obsessions with social justice and language policing.Who knows? Maybe that’s just the wake-up call we all need if we’re going to keep Trump in Mar-a-Lago.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    What’s at Stake in These Elections

    Midterm elections in the United States are often presented as a referendum on the party in power, and that message appears to be resonating this fall. But voters need to consider the intentions of the party that hopes to regain power, too, and what each vote they cast will mean for the future of this country.Eight Republican senators and 139 Republican representatives sought to overturn the results of the 2020 election on the basis of spurious allegations of voter fraud and other irregularities. Many of them are likely to win re-election, and they may be joined by new members who also have expressed baseless doubts about the integrity of the 2020 election. Their presence in Congress poses a danger to democracy, one that should be on the mind of every voter casting a ballot this Election Day.It will also be the first time that the U.S. electoral machinery will be tested in a national election after two years of lawsuits, conspiracy theories, election “audits” and all manner of interference by believers in Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. That test comes alongside the embrace of violent extremism by a small but growing faction of the Republican Party.The greatest danger to election integrity may, in fact, come from the results of state and local races that will determine who actually conducts the election and counts the votes in 2024. In the weeks that followed the 2020 election, Mr. Trump and his supporters saw their efforts to deny the election results and prove rampant voter fraud thwarted by two things: first, their inability to produce credible evidence that such fraud had occurred and, second, an election infrastructure that was defended by honorable public servants who refused to accept specious claims of wrongdoing.Over the past two years, Republicans in dozens of states have tried to dismantle that infrastructure piece by piece, particularly by filling key positions with Trump sympathizers. As this board wrote in September, “Rather than threatening election officials, they will be the election officials — the poll workers and county commissioners and secretaries of state responsible for overseeing the casting, counting and certifying of votes.” Many of those positions are being contested this week.With Mr. Trump said to be readying his bid to return to the White House, this board urges American voters to consider how important each vote cast on Election Day, at every level of government, will be. Even if the member of Congress in your district has refused to accept Mr. Trump’s lies about this election, there are other races on the ballot in many states for offices — including secretary of state, attorney general and governor — that will play crucial roles in overseeing and certifying the 2024 presidential election.Still, with that election two years away, many voters say they are more concerned with the present threats to their livelihoods than with the equally serious but less visible threat to democracy. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that “more than a third of independent voters and a smaller but noteworthy contingent of Democrats said they were open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election, as they assigned greater urgency to their concerns about the economy than to fears about the fate of the country’s political system.”Indeed, voters have good reason to look at the current moment and wonder whether the Biden administration and congressional Democrats are doing enough to meet it. High inflation is making it harder for Americans to afford what they need and want. Overall crime has risen, causing people to fear for their safety. The federal government is struggling to enforce the nation’s immigration laws. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and America’s increasingly tense relations with China are undermining global peace and prosperity.Republicans have presented these midterm elections as a referendum on Democratic leadership, and that message appears to be resonating.But voters need to consider the intentions of the party that hopes to regain power, too.Republicans have offered few specific plans for addressing issues like inflation, immigration and crime — and even if they win control of Congress, they are unlikely to win enough seats to shift federal policy significantly over the next two years.A Republican-controlled Senate would, however, be able to block President Biden from filling vacancies on the federal bench and on the Supreme Court. It would become more difficult to obtain confirmations for executive branch officials, as well.Republican candidates have also pledged to devote significant time and energy to investigating the Biden administration. “I don’t think Joe Biden and his handlers are exactly eager to sign Republican legislation into law, so our hearings are going to be the most important thing that we can have,” Representative Lauren Boebert of Colorado told a recent rally.In addition to that spectacle, Republicans are threatening to stage another showdown over federal spending.At some point in the next year, the government is expected to hit the limit of its authorized borrowing capacity, or debt ceiling. To meet the commitments Congress already has authorized, it will need to raise that limit. This ought to be a matter of basic housekeeping, because failing to pay the nation’s bills would risk a global financial crisis. But debt ceiling votes have instead become recurring opportunities for extortion.This board has called for Congress to eliminate the debt ceiling, replacing it with a common-sense law that says the government can borrow whatever is necessary to provide for the spending authorized by Congress. There is no public benefit in requiring what amounts to a second vote on spending decisions. But for now, the ceiling endures, and Republicans have made clear that if they win control of Congress, they intend to use it as a bargaining chip with the White House to advance their party’s fiscal goals.One priority on that list is cutting taxes. Republicans already are preparing to move forward with legislation to extend the 2017 tax cuts for individuals, which mostly benefit wealthy households, while eliminating some of the offsetting increases in corporate taxation — a plan that is not easily reconciled with the party’s stated concerns about inflation or the rising federal debt.Republican proposals would also make it more difficult for the Internal Revenue Service to prevent wealthy Americans from cheating on their taxes. Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, who is in position to become speaker if Republicans win a majority, has said the “first bill” that would pass under his leadership would reverse an $80 billion funding increase for the I.R.S. Congress approved that funding in August so the I.R.S. can crack down on rampant tax fraud by high-income households.Some senior Republicans have called for repealing another key piece of the August legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act: a measure that limits drug costs for seniors on Medicare, including a $35 monthly cap on payments for insulin.Republicans also have floated plans to roll back more firmly established benefits. The Republican Study Committee, a conservative policy working group whose membership includes more than half of the current crop of House Republicans, published a budget plan in June calling for Congress to gradually increase the retirement age for full Social Security benefits to 70 to check the rising cost of the program. The plan also would increase the age of eligibility for Medicare.Democrats could make it more difficult for Republicans to pursue these goals by raising the debt limit or changing the rules in the weeks between the election and the end of the year.Democrats have largely failed to connect with voters’ concerns about inflation and public safety during this campaign season. They have struggled to communicate their tangible achievements, including a big boost in funding for local law enforcement and bipartisan gun safety legislation, a historic federal investment in developing clean and low-cost sources of energy to confront climate change and the cost of living, and a breakthrough measure to bring down the cost of prescription drugs for Medicare recipients.Undoubtedly, there is more work to be done on these and other issues, including the health of the economy and the broken state of immigration policy. Voters need to decide which party they trust to do that work.But the 2022 elections are also an opportunity for every American to do their part in defending the integrity of American elections. The task of safeguarding our democracy does not end with one election, and it requires all of us to play a role. Our nation’s governance depends on it.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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    Biden Faces One More Inflection Point After a Life of Struggle

    President Biden had hoped to preside over a moment of reconciliation after the turmoil of the Trump years. But the fever of polarizing politics has not broken ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Before heading into a community center for a campaign rally the other day, President Biden stopped to speak to the overflow crowd that could not squeeze into the small facility.As often happens whenever Mr. Biden finds a microphone and a willing audience, his family made a cameo appearance. This time it was his long-dead grandparents. “Every time I’d walk out of my grandpop’s house, he’d yell, ‘Joey, keep the faith,’” the president recounted. “My grandmother would yell, ‘No, Joey, spread it.’ Go spread the faith.”Mr. Biden has been spreading the faith across the country in recent days, undaunted by the polls and prognosticators forecasting a devastating defeat for his party in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Faith has been Mr. Biden’s calling card in his nearly two years in office — faith in the system in which he has been a fixture for more than half a century, faith that he could repair the fissures of a broken society, faith that he and he alone could beat former President Donald J. Trump if they face off again in 2024.It is not a faith shared by everyone, not even among fellow Democrats, not even among his own advisers and allies, some of whom view the coming days with dread. After turning to Mr. Biden for a sense of normalcy two years ago following the turmoil of Mr. Trump, voters now appear poised to register discontent that he has not delivered it the way they expected, regardless of whether it was realistic in the first place.History has rarely favored first-term presidents in midterm elections and Mr. Biden’s party does not even have to lose in a landslide for him to lose the presidency as he has known it. The turnover of just a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat will severely constrain his options going forward and raise questions about whether he should lead the Democrats into the next election.And so these are frustrating, even perplexing times for Mr. Biden, who according to confidants had expected the fever of polarizing politics to have broken by now and was surprised that it had not. The presidency he envisioned, one where he presided over a moment of reconciliation, is not the presidency he has gotten. He thought that if he could simply govern well, everything would work out, which in hindsight strikes some around him as shockingly naïve if somewhat endearing.Mr. Biden speaking during a campaign event at MiraCosta College in San Diego for Representative Mike Levin, Democrat of California. Mr. Levin is running for re-election.Tom Brenner for The New York Times“In the old days, when I was a United States senator, we’d argue like hell with one another, disagree fundamentally, and go down to the Senate dining room and have lunch together,” Mr. Biden reflected to an audience in San Diego last week. “Because we disagreed on the issues, but we agreed on the notion that the institutions matter.”“Well, the institutions are under full-blown attack,” he added. “I’m already being told, if they win back the House and Senate, they’re going to impeach me. I don’t know what the hell they’ll impeach me for.”Like other presidents in stressful moments, he has turned to Abraham Lincoln for inspiration. As he traveled in recent days, he brought with him “And There Was Light,” the new biography of the 16th president by Jon Meacham, the historian who has become a friend and outside adviser to Mr. Biden.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.House Democrats: Several moderates elected in 2018 in conservative-leaning districts are at risk of being swept out. That could cost the Democrats their House majority.A Key Constituency: A caricature of the suburban female voter looms large in American politics. But in battleground regions, many voters don’t fit the stereotype.Crime: In the final stretch of the campaigns, politicians are vowing to crack down on crime. But the offices they are running for generally have little power to make a difference.Abortion: The fall of Roe v. Wade seemed to offer Democrats a way of energizing voters and holding ground. Now, many worry that focusing on abortion won’t be enough to carry them to victory.“One possible lesson for President Biden, who’s engaged in a profound battle to preserve the Constitution and the rule of law, is that moral commitment matters and can prevail, no matter how difficult the struggle,” Mr. Meacham said. “There will be bad days and good days. The key thing is to remember why you’re fighting for what you’re fighting for.”The bad days often seem to outnumber the good days in this challenging autumn, although Mr. Biden, the self-described “wacko Irishman,” would hardly put it that way. “I’m optimistic,” he says regularly, even while outlining all the ways his optimism is taking a beating lately.He does not indulge often in introspection, nor subject himself to much cross-examination about where he believes he has gone wrong, if in fact he does. He avoids interviews with major networks and newspapers, preferring friendlier questioners like the podcaster who told him mid-interview recently that “you’re the coolest guy in the world.”As he approaches his 80th birthday this month, Mr. Biden’s life is less in his control than it has been in years. He starts his day at 8 a.m. with exercises, then heads to the Oval Office, returning to the residence around 7 p.m. for dinner with Jill Biden. Since she teaches in the morning, she goes to bed earlier, around 9:30 p.m., while he tells people that he stays up with his thick briefing book until around 11 p.m. He does not read much for pleasure, and when he watches television, it is mainly the news or sports.He elliptically acknowledges the effects of age. During a conversation with the actors Jason Bateman, Sean Hayes and Will Arnett for their podcast “SmartLess,” Mr. Biden said he cannot skip workouts without penalty. “The thing I learned, the difference in age, if I let it go for a week, I feel it,” he said. “I used to be able to go for a week and nothing would change.”Perhaps sharing more than his wife might prefer, the president confided that Mrs. Biden insists he combat the effects of age in other ways. “She gets very upset if I have not fully shaven, all this excessive amount of hair I have,” he said. “You know what I mean?”His family remains an inseparable element of his life and his politics. Barely a speech on the trail goes by that he does not mention his son Beau, who died of brain cancer in 2015. His dad and mom are quoted with great regularity. He makes a point of texting or calling each of his seven grandchildren every day.And so those around him know the most important voice in his ear as he contemplates what comes next is Jill Biden. While aides make tentative plans for a re-election campaign in case he opts for one, the president has not had extensive conversations about it with some of his closest aides. He insists to them, though, that Mrs. Biden is all-in if he wants to run, a self-justifying contention some view with skepticism.In that sense, the return to the campaign trail this fall after a largely shelter-in-place Covid-19 campaign in 2020 has served as something of a test run of what a 2024 bid might look like.He is not a rip-roaring speaker nor does he have the celebrity factor that electrifies a crowd beyond the trappings of the office. His crowds have been enthusiastic but nowhere near as large as his recent predecessors drew at similar points.At an event in Hallandale Beach, Fla., one of his warm-up speakers had to goad the audience into showing a little more spirit. “Come on, people, let’s wake up!” exhorted Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democrat of Florida. “We got the president of the United States in the house. Come on, now! I know you got a little more energy than I hear.”At a rally in Miami Gardens later that day, he was an hour late and the crowd, which had been there for hours to get through security, had faded by the time he was halfway through his speech, some even slipping out before he was finished.Mr. Biden has adjusted his style lately, abandoning the lectern for a hand-held mic that lets him better project his voice, which is softening with age, and allows him to wander the stage, hand in pocket. But his speeches are peppered with familiar Biden-isms like “I’m serious” and “look folks” and “I really mean it.”Mr. Biden seems to think he comes across as funnier than he does. “Not a joke!” he says again and again, four, eight, 10 times in a single speech. In San Diego last week, he told one audience that his remarks were “not a joke” a full 17 times — and threw in “I’m not joking” four more times. (A Biden speech is like a drinking game for political nerds — “Not a joke!” Drink!)Indeed, Mr. Biden has always connected with audiences not through humor so much as humanity. His speeches are animated by stories of pain — his young wife and daughter killed in a car accident, his own near-death experience with two brain aneurysms, his son Beau’s death. He still summons the name of the nurse who took care of him in the hospital more than three decades ago.“People understand that I understand loss and I think it’s so important that people understand that from that loss — the pain never goes away but you can do incredible things,” he said last week. “The person you lost never leaves your heart. I don’t know how many times I ask myself what would Beau do?”Even now, his childhood struggles with stuttering define him. To this day, he divides his speech texts with hash marks, a technique he learned to make public speaking earlier. And the insecurities that come from it are never far from the surface. He brought it up last week seemingly at random.“I used to ta- ta- ta- talk — talk like that wh- wh- wh- when I w- wa- was a kid,” he told one audience. “It’s awful hard to ask the girl, ‘Will you go to the p- pr- pr- prom with me?’ And it sounds funny, but guess what? It makes you feel like an idiot.”Anticipating the next few days, Mr. Biden refuses to concede defeat. He was encouraged by the energy of Saturday night’s rally in Pennsylvania with former President Barack Obama and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Senate candidate, as well as positive indicators from Arizona and New Hampshire.His mood, aides said, is one of fighting through the tape. “He’s spent the last weeks pushing us — what else can he do?” said Anita Dunn, his senior adviser.But if he takes a licking on Tuesday, aides said, he will own it and move ahead. In a life of falling and getting back up, it would be one more stumble, not the end. On that at least, he has faith. More