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    What does the future hold for Labour under Keir Starmer?

    Just because “a mountain to climb” is a terrible cliche doesn’t necessarily mean that Keir Starmer was wrong to use it. The question remains, though, as to whether Sherpa Starmer is the right man for the assault on political K2.Starmer is coming under some renewed attacks from the left. The socialist tendency believes he is squandering the gains made in the Corbyn years (yes, really). Richard Burgon, secretary of the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs, and a former marginal contender for the deputy leadership has issued this scarcely coded warning: “Many feel our leadership has taken the fight to its own members more than it has to a Tory government responsible for one of the worst coronavirus death rates in the world.” Of course, Starmer might well point out that he’s been on the Covid story for a year. And he might ask why Burgon and his allies are taking the fight to their leader rather than the wicked Tories. Starmer may also conclude that being attacked by Burgon suggests that the party is going in the right direction. More

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    Will flags and smart suits win votes for Labour?

    In the words of a leaked Labour internal memo, “the use of the flag, veterans, dressing smartly at the war memorial etc gives voters a sense of authentic values alignment”. Aside from the market research jargon – the document having been derived from focus group research – you have to wonder about a party being “authentic” if it is being encouraged to do things that it is not doing already, that is to say naturally, voluntarily and, erm, authentically. Would not the voters be able to sniff out the subterfuge? Or is it more a case, as the late Bob Monkhouse once said, that the public love sincerity? “If you can fake that, you can fake anything,” he said. Which brings us rather neatly to Tony Blair and New Labour. While no doubt Keir Starmer is sincere (and authentic) in his professed desire not simply to be a reimagined Blair, there is no mistaking his quest to push Labour towards the centre ground of politics and to win back lost voters in what are now termed “foundation seats”, formerly “red wall” or, latterly, “blue wall”. Not only is this a matter of policy, but of image and appearance, adopting the demeanour of what prospective or defected Labour voters wish their leaders to sound and look like. After all, the electorate in places such as Sedgefield (once represented by Tony Blair) and Bolsover (ex Denis Skinner) were won over by the plummy Old Etonian Boris Johnson, a man who constantly drapes himself in the national flag, and may, for all we know, wear Union Jack undercrackers. Presumably under some edict, no government minister is permitted to be on television without at least one union flag behind them, a novel and vaguely fascistic fashion. More

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    The Hong Kong exodus is coming

    Ted Hui recalls the moment he announced he would flee Hong Kong for the UK. “I burst into tears when I told my loved ones I was going into exile,” he says. In the closing months of 2020, the Democratic Party politician was issued with nine charges based on “totally fake stories” for his involvement in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement. One charge was for “perverting the course of justice” and carried a maximum life sentence; another offence was ludicrously labelled “administering drugs and harmful substances” for dropping a stink bomb during a meeting of the city’s Legislative Council, and carried a four-year term. He also faced the prospect of a private trial with no jury. The Kafkaesque manner of the judiciary made him realise “there was no way to rely on this legal system for justice”. After months of sleepless nights, fearing dawn raids by armed police officers and being “stalked by intelligence agents”, he decided to leave Hong Kong, sparking the exodus of many others to the pandemic-stricken shores of Britain. Hui tells me: “There will definitely be a massive number of people arriving, and cities like London and Manchester could end up with the largest Hong Kong diasporas in the world.”On 30 June 2020 Beijing imposed its “national security law” on embattled Hong Kong to silence the pro-democracy demonstrations. State media outlet China Daily heralded it as the only way to stop “the overreactions of those rioters and their foreign backers”. The ranks of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement have varied aims, from those who want more autonomy to those who espouse full independence from China. The national security law prohibits freedom of expression and can be crookedly manipulated to silence dissent. What exactly infringes the new law is purposely vague so that it can be widely applied. Secession from China, subverting state authority and collusion with foreign powers are its main elements, all aimed at crushing democratic sentiment in the financial hub. More

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    Inside Politics: Michael Gove wants trade rules relaxed in Northern Ireland

    A top British beekeeper fears 15 million bees could be seized and burned because of new imports rules. 15 million bees burned at the altar of Brexit bureaucracy – we didn’t see that on the side of the Vote Leave bus. Vote Leave veteran Michael Gove thinks the hive mind can help sort some of the huge problems Brexit has created in Northern Ireland. The Cabinet Office minister is hoping to pollinate some goodwill when he gathers his EU counterpart and leaders from the province for a showdown summit today. Westminster, Stormont and Brussels are buzzing for a breakthrough.
    Inside the bubbleOur political commentator Andrew Grice on what to look out for today: More

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    Why does everyone keep helping the SNP?

    Given that the SNP has been in power since 2007 and that Nicola Sturgeon has been first minister for the last six momentous years, it is surprising, if not miraculous, that the party is still riding high in the opinion polls. While a little off the highs of last autumn, the Scot Nats still register solidly above 50 per cent, and are well on course for a substantial victory at the elections for the Scottish parliament in May. With that will come a pledge, and arguably a mandate, for a fresh referendum on independence. On that issue, too, the party is currently on track to achieve its historic aim.  So, treble Scotches all round? Apparently not. So far from concentrating on delivering its precious cargo of Scottish nationhood safely into harbour, the SNP is squabbling and split. Fortunately the voters appear to have taken little even notice of the arguments for them to defect to any of the unionist alternatives, but that may change. What is going on?  It’s complicated, but the key seems to be that the wrangling seems mostly more personal and confined to subjects, rightly or wrongly, not at the top of voters’ minds just now.   More

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    Will the success of the vaccine rollout save Boris Johnson?

    While there may be no such thing as a miracle cure for political unpopularity, Boris Johnson may have discovered the nearest thing to it – the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Like the Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax products also coming on stream, their arrival has boosted Johnson’s personal poll ratings and those of his party. For the first time in months, the prime minister and the Conservatives are starting to regain their poll leads, albeit by slim margins, over Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.  It certainly makes a change for the government, and the recent spat with the European Union over the supply of the proudly British Oxford-AstraZeneca jab added a patriotic, Brexit quality to the generally good news about the vaccine rollout. (Notwithstanding the fact that all vaccines have complex multinational supply chains and rely on global scientific collaboration). Even the most ardent Remainer has had to concede that the EU has recently misjudged things, and managed to make the British seem paragons of public health, even as Britain gained the unwelcome distinction of suffering the worst Covid death rate in Europe. If, as Tony Blair says, Labour “should” be 20 points ahead in the polls, the fact that it is roughly neck and neck, given the margin of error, at about 40 per cent, is cause for concern. It is possible that as the vaccine programme exceeds expectations and the memories of Dominic Cummings and the disastrous decisions of the last year fade, then the Conservatives lead could stretch further as the big round of elections across the UK arrive in May. The hard work and brilliance of the scientists and the NHS have rubbed off on the popularity of the government, galling as that may be to some. More

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    Is the AstraZeneca vaccine row dividing the EU?

    Imagine if AstraZeneca happened to be an American or Chinese company, and manufactured all of its Covid vaccines far away from the EU and Britain. The chances are that the stories about production problems, breaches of contract and export bans would not have acquired the heated, chauvinistic Brexity quality that they have in recent days. It would be much more of a business story than yet another episode of the Brexit saga. It would matter, but the focus would be on the prosaic aspects of contractual obligations, complex supply chains and the impact on public health.  Instead, of course, with a somewhat similar set of rows about the Pfizer vaccine, it has been itself infected by the virus of populist nationalism. In some ways, this probably suits the European Union, to be seen to be standing up for Europe’s citizens and demanding its fair share, legally and morally. Who cares, on this reading, if the British got their big order in first? Any company is obliged to honour its obligations no matter when any order was placed. So the EU wants transparency, from AstraZeneca. The company is sticking to its “first come first served” policy.  The EU’s subsequent proposal to require approval for vaccine exports to third countries (mainly Britain), looks illogical, and nationalistic, even if it is only part of a continuing struggle with a private sector pharma giant. Conveniently, though, it distracts from any criticism among the member states about the EU’s own mistakes, if any. This may not last.   More

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    Brexit and the ‘vaccine war’ between Britain and the EU

    What are to make of the “vaccine war” between Britain and the European Union?The underlying problem would seem to be a lack of trust, entirely comprehensible given the history of Brexit. Chauvinism and suspicion seem to be driving public pronouncements and policy on vaccine procurement. A ridiculous race has been set up, in the minds of some, between the UK and EU to see who can vaccinate their populations fastest. Britain has reached 10 per cent, continental Europe 2 per cent. This, absurdly, has been used to justify Brexit, leaving aside Britain’s grim record on deaths from Covid. If this cross-Channel competition has the effect of spurring on efforts it might have something to be said for it, but it seems unlikely given that supply is a constraint everywhere. What’s more, the coronavirus does not respect national borders; if it is raging in France it will not remain there. Tempers have flared, as with previous skirmishes over the closures of borders, supermarket deliveries to Northern Ireland, fish (inevitably) and a lorry driver who was upset to find his ham sandwich impounded at the Hook of Holland (“Welcome to the Brexit, sir”).   More