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      How British politics will change in 2021

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      What will politics be like in 2021? Not quite same old, same old. Brexit will fade, at long last. It’s in the interests of most of the parties to “draw a line under it”, as the cliche goes, given the trouble it’s (mostly) caused the politicians, and the fact the public is heartily bored by it. It will now be Labour’s turn to be divided, as we saw in the recent Commons vote on the free trade deal. At every level Labour voters, members and MPs who were Remainers, or at least some of them, will morph into Rejoiners, and demand a commitment to go back into the EU. Keir Starmer will hope to unite the party under a vague commitment to build on the “base” of the current deal to build a “closer” partnership with the EU, but no more. Even if Brexit turns disastrous – and there will inevitably be some chaos, closures and job losses, it’s unlikely to stimulate any great appetite among the voters for another great national debate on Europe.  As a political virus, Brexit will, though, mutate in unpredictable ways. It will, for example, start to figure even more prominently in the argument about Scottish independence, or “Scexit” as it may yet come to be known. After all, most of the arguments about sovereignty and taking back control deployed by the SNP have quite a Brexity feel to them, just as the case against trade barriers and being better together have an echo of the Remain campaign. In any case, Nicola Sturgeon seems set to win a landslide victory and one explicitly seeking a mandate for a second independence referendum. If London just says “no”, there will indeed be a bitterly divisive constitutional crisis, and one that probably can’t be resolved by the Supreme Court. As in Ireland a century ago, there will be many in Scotland who will question the legitimacy of the Westminster government, and will seek ways to resist, though through peaceful political protest, resistance and disobedience. Most of the English, it has to be said, would have no objection to Scotland going its own way; the dispute would be with the militantly Unionist government that refuses to even talk to Sturgeon.   More

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      Britain is broken, can it be healed?

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      It was late evening of 31 January 2020, and there seemed just a chance, a remote chance, of a reluctant coming together. The fissure exposed by the Brexit vote – a fissure that had by now spread cracks all over the once reasonably United Kingdom – might yet be capable of being, if not bridged, then respectably papered over.I was in London’s Parliament Square that night – as were fewer people than you might have expected at what will be seen forever as a historic juncture: the UK’s official departure from the European Union. And some of us, at least – as I overheard from the Americans immediately behind me – were there for the history rather than the rejoicing, which was unexpectedly muted.Nigel Farage, by now of the Brexit Party, though with a reasonable claim to have been masterminded the whole Eurosceptic project, had hoped for a sparkling Leave Means Leave jamboree to see out the UK’s 47 years of EU  membership. One by one, though, most of the grandiose plans had been stripped away by a central government concerned not to inflame passions further and by a city government whose voters had massively supported Remain. More

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      Inside Politics: Boris Johnson hails his ‘cake and eat it’ Brexit deal

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      The year from hell is almost over. 2020 began with a mind-numbing argument about whether under-repair Big Ben would bong for Brexit. It ends with Big Ben finally restored and bonging again. The clock will chime at 11pm tonight, as the UK leaves the single market and customs union – not as a statement of triumph, but as a test for the timepiece tolling at midnight. It will be a sombre moment for many, not least because another 20 million people have been moved into the toughest Covid tier.Inside the bubbleDeputy political editor Rob Merrick on what to look out for today:Parliament will be back in recess and all will be quiet as the New Year approaches. In fact, after all the Brexit drama, the government has tabled a motion extending the recess until 11 January. Businesses will be enjoying their last-ever day of frictionless trade with the EU, before a blizzard of expensive paperwork and bumper-to-bumper queues in Kent becomes the new reality.Daily briefingLET THEM EAT CAKE: It’s almost over. Four and a half years after the referendum, Brexit finally becomes real at 11pm tonight. Boris Johnson may have to keep his celebrations muted this evening, but he is clearly feeling triumphant. Asked if his deal was a case of having your cake and eating it, the PM told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg: “You said it … this is a cake-ist treaty.” Johnson also claimed it was “wonderful” for British exporters – despite the new customs declarations they’ll be filling out from tomorrow. “They’ll now have the advantage that they’ll only have one set of forms they have to fill out for export to around the whole world … I think it’s a wonderful thing.” The deal was signed into law after MPs backed it by 521 to 73 votes. Keir Starmer made sure to criticise the “thin” agreement – warning of the “avalanche of checks, bureaucracy and red tape” – but 37 of his MPs still rebelled. And three of the rebels – Helen Hayes, Florence Eshalomi and Tonia Antoniazzi – all quit their junior frontbench positions.TIERS BEFORE BEDTIME: Another 20 million people have gone into tier 4, leaving 78 per cent of England under the highest restrictions. Johnson hailed the good news about the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine approval and said the government was “shifting heaven and Earth” to roll it asap. But the PM warned that we should not “in any way think that this is over”, since the virus is “really surging”. The Independent can reveal that critically-ill patients are being “evacuated” from the south of England to hospitals hundreds of miles away, as NHS bosses in London said the capital is set to run out of critical care beds within a week. NHS England will announce plans today to reopen the Nightingale Hospital in east London on 4 January. Matt Hancock told MPs two million people a week could soon be vaccinated, promising to work with AstraZeneca “make that happen”.ANOTHER FINE MESS: Another extremely predictable U-turn on schools, as education secretary Gavin Williamson said he was “determined to act to preserve lives”. Secondary schools across most of England will remain closed for another two weeks, although exam-year pupils will go back on 11 January. In a few pockets with the very highest infection rates, primaries would remain closed temporarily. The National Association of Head Teachers said it was yet another “last-minute mess”. Union leader Paul Whiteman said: “If we’d had the freedom to take action before the holidays, we might have been in a position to have more schools open … School leaders will be baffled, frustrated and justifiably angry.” Elsewhere, the Home Office has produced a gleeful end-of-year report card, telling The Telegraph more than 1,100 foreign criminals were deported this year. A Home Office official boasted that protests by Labour and “do-gooding” celebrities had failed. So there.NOT TOGETHER IN ELECTRIC DREAMS: Brexiteers aren’t in the mood to do so, but experts have spent the festive period picking apart the deal and have found some interesting stuff in there. It’s emerged that the EU secured the ability to shut off gas and electricity supplies if the UK tries to seize control of disputed fish stocks in future. The little-noticed clause allows Brussels to kick the UK out of its electricity and gas markets in June 2026, unless a fresh deal is agreed for fishing rights. “This is just another reason why the UK will likely struggle to take back control of any more of its waters in the years to come,” the Institute for Government told The Independent. Meanwhile, Labour’s Yvette Cooper said the loss of the Schengen Information System II database meant our security response was going to get “weaker” from Friday. She called for the police to be given more resources to adjust to the new normal.WHERE DID IT ALL GO GONG: Great news for the former attorney general Geoffrey Cox QC. The Tory MP received a knighthood for in the new year honours – despite his prominent role in last year’s shutdown of parliament. Remember when Cox branded parliament a “disgrace” during the prorogation debacle? He is knighted for his “parliamentary” service. The irony. Meanwhile, veteran Labour MP Angela Eagle will get to raise a glass after getting a damehood. What about our politicians’ new year celebrations tonight? No 10 is keeping quiet about Johnson’s plans, and the Brexit Party won’t get to hold a shindig in Parliament Square as they hoped. But Brexit backers are determined to have a good time at home, nevertheless. Former Brexit Party MEP Lance Forman told The Independent he would pour himself two glasses of fizz – one French champagne and the other English sparkling. “First I shall drink the French to say goodbye and then the English, to say hello,” he said.I HAVE A CUNNING PLAN: Donald Trump’s New Year’s Eve plans? The outgoing president is cutting short his Florida holiday to return to Washington a day earlier than expected, for reasons officials did not explain – so he won’t be partying at his private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach after all. Could it be he is scheming up one last big stunt next week? Republican senator Josh Hawley has revealed he would raise objections when Congress meets to affirm president-elect Joe Biden’s on 6 January. A group of Republicans in the Democratic-controlled House have also said they would object on Trump’s behalf during the count of electoral votes. Meanwhile, the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell shut the door on Trump’s push for $2,000 Covid relief checks – declaring Congress has provided enough pandemic aid. He said it would be “another fire hose of borrowed money”.On the record“Sovereignty does not mean isolationism, it does not mean we never accept somebody else’s rules – it does not mean exceptionalism.”Theresa May offers the PM a warning on partnerships with the EU.From the Twitterati“Whilst Margaret didn’t live long enough to see this day, I am sure that she is rejoicing in heaven. At last we ‘got Brexit done’!”Tory MP Sir David Amess is triumphant – celebrating with a cardboard cut-out of Thatcher…“The liars, the xenophobes, the tax dodgers (and the voters who more genuinely believed in it) have their Brexit … But, we, the internationalists, the believers in cooperation and truth WILL be back.”…while the Lib Dems’ Jonathan Banks is defiant.Essential readingJohn Rentoul, The Independent: Johnson hopes and Starmer fears that Brexit will go on foreverSandra Khadhouri, The Independent: We can reduce Brexit sorrow by building new connections with EuropeAnand Menon, The Guardian: Brexit is far from done – the deal is no game, set and matchJohn Cassidy, The New Yorker: How to Trump-proof the presidencySign up here to receive this daily briefing in your email inbox every morning  More

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      Brexit deal: Labour’s civil war over Europe is just getting started

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      The war is over, according to Nigel Farage, who is sometimes called, among other, ruder, things “the godfather of Brexit”. Certainly the divisions on the right of British politics, including the bitter fratricide among Conservatives, may now be drawing to a conclusion. Now the “deal” is done, most Conservatives and even the followers of Farage seem disinclined to reject it. There will no doubt be some Spartans who will defy the whip, some Unionists who will complain loudly, and voices from the Brexit Party and Ukip about “betrayal”, but these will be really the last knockings of their conflict.  For Labour, its civil war over Europe is about to ignite. Where the Tories are now, of necessity, uniting on a policy, if only because it is a fact of life, Labour is starting to fracture. The reported threat of a half dozen or so shadow ministers to quit the front bench over the vote on the deal may be just the start of the trouble. Keir Starmer has publicly declared he will tell his party to vote for the “thin” deal, because the realistic alternative is the ultimate horror of a no-deal Brexit. He has good reasons to do so. The voters dislike or don’t understand why a major party would abstain on such an issue – “sitting on the fence” is not a great look for a statesman. Labour’s pro-Brexit voters, especially in the “red wall” seats, might regard an abstention or rejection as precisely the kind of elitist posturing that turned them away from the party before. And he does not wish to have to listen to Boris Johnson teasing him about having no policy and ignoring the will of the people.  His opponents, though, feel equally strongly about supporting a key Johnson policy and one they believe is a disaster and will be seen as a disaster – in which case it will be harder for them to attack something they voted for. Figures such as Emily Thornberry, shadow international trade secretary, and shadow chancellor Annaliese Dodds, committed pro-Europeans, reportedly argued in shadow cabinet against voting for the deal, though not to the point of resignation over it. They, and the shadow junior ministers who appear set to stand down on a matter of principle, represent a substantial body of opinion in the party that is bitterly disappointed by Brexit and, so far as possible, wish to reverse or at least revise it.   More

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      Why are fishing rights so important in Brexit trade talks?

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      Given that fisheries represent less than 1 per cent of national income in the UK and France – the principal protagonists – it is difficult for many to understand why this comparatively small industry is hindering any Brexit trade deal. Yet the obstacles are still formidable, even though progress on key areas is being made. Britain has, reportedly, made a generous offer of a five-year transition period, about 65 per cent of the catch available to the EU, plus a joint procedure for allocating quotas and managing disputes.  Even so, it will mean hardship for the fisherfolk of France, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium and Denmark, who have enjoyed some access to British waters for centuries (give or take a few wars), and by treaty and then the EU Common Fisheries Policy since the 1960s. Now that Britain is to be an “independent coastal state” with a 200-mile exclusive economic zone, such access is jeopardised.  At the same time, though, there are many more fish out there than the British could consume, even if they tried, processing imported fish (also from Iceland and Norway) has become a bigger industry and needs EU markets, and some British trawlers may wish to continue fishing for particular species in European waters. More

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      How will the culmination of Brexit trade talks affect the Labour Party?

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      However Brexit eventually pans out, it should mean the end of the Tories’ three-decade-long civil war on Europe. No doubt the “Spartan” warriors of the European Research Group will engage in some guerrilla tactics from time to time, but, for the Conservatives, the battle should be done. The “party of Europe”, which took the UK in under Ted Heath in 1973, and which pioneered the single market under Margaret Thatcher in 1986, is now the “party of Brexit”. The pro-Europeans have either been purged or quietened by the 2019 election result. ‘However, Brexit is now looking to become a much more tricky issue for Her Majesty’s Opposition. More

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      Boris Johnson plans to summon MPs if Brexit deal secured — how does the recall of parliament work?

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      If Boris Johnson manages to secure a deal with the European Union in the coming days, the government will need to act rapidly to ensure the necessary legislation is passed before the end of the transition period on 31 December. Despite the House of Commons rising for the Christmas recess on Thursday, MPs have already been put on standby and warned they should expect their festivities to be disrupted and parliament to be recalled if white smoke emerges in Brussels after months of fraught negotiations.“Parliament has shown it can move at pace and the country would expect nothing less,” a No 10 source said. “The process of recall will align with the process for finalising the legislation for a deal, if one is secured, and no time will be lost.  More

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      Is Dominic Cummings right that politicians are too focused on Twitter?

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      In his first public comment since the announcement of his departure from government, Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s former chief adviser, has written for The Spectator about the danger to the world of nuclear annihilation. He berates us all for largely ignoring “issues of existential importance”, while “our political systems incentivise politicians to focus more on Twitter and gossip-column stories about their dogs”.He has a point, both about Twitter and about dogs, but the truth is that most people can’t stand too much reality, and we don’t want to spend all our time talking about nuclear, chemical and biological weapons proliferation because we have a virus pandemic taking up most of our worrying time.  Of course he did not mean just Twitter and dogs: they are examples of the short-termism and superficiality of politics; but he might as well rail about the weather. Politicians will use Twitter if they think it will help them win elections; and the prime minister will put his dog on a Christmas card with a bit of tinsel round its neck if he thinks it will help him come across as likeable.   More