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    The problem with Liz Truss’s plan for an ethical post-Brexit trade policy

    As international trade secretary, Liz Truss has one of the toughest jobs in politics – trying to make some kind of sense, let alone success, of the grand-sounding but nebulous concept of “Global Britain”: making Brexit a success, in other words.To her credit, she is trying. Pre-empting the end of the Trump era, she has used a keynote speech at Chatham House to indicate that Global Britain will promote a rules-based international trading system, rather than, presumably helping to isolate and break the World Trade Organisation, as the US administration has tried. From the Department for International Trade there will be no mini-me echo of Donald Trump, no “Britain First” approach to new trading arrangements. Truss recalls the era of Cobden and Bright, the enlightenment values of Macaulay and the timeless principles of free trade in contrast to the protectionist populists of the US and, implicitly, within the ranks of her own party. Give or take a few wedges of Stilton, the recent trade deals with Japan and Cote d’Ivoire apparently stand testament to this new spirit of economic liberalism. She didn’t mention Michel Barnier by name, but she did refer to the EU’s “innovation-phobic” mindset and high tariff wall (and one that British farmers and others have sheltered behind for half a century).   More

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    Deep divisions at home will go on weakening America regardless of who is elected

    Students taking exams in modern history in coming decades are likely to be asked about the nature and importance of Donald Trump’s years in office. Among the questions those future students may have to answer, there is likely to be one along the following lines: “President Trump promised when elected in 2016 to make America great again. How far did he succeed in doing so and, if he did not, why not?”This should be an easy question for the students to answer because they can truthfully give a categorical black-and-white response: the US is demonstrably weaker as a world power than it was in 2016 because, as a nation, it is more deeply divided than at any time since the Civil War, a century-and-a-half ago. This multifaceted division is not going to disappear, regardless of whether Trump or Joe Biden win the presidential election, and it may well be exacerbated by the result.American hegemony was originally based on its economic might and by victory in the Second World War, enhanced by the collapse of the Soviet Union, its only rival, in 1991. Its economic dominance has been challenged by China and the EU, though it remains the sole financial superpower. Its military superiority is sustained by vast expenditure but has been dented by its failure to win wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. More

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    Is Danny Dyer right about Boris Johnson?

    Danny Dyer has claimed that the coronavirus pandemic has proved that “people who went to Eton” are unable to run the country. The EastEnders actor, who previously branded the Eton-educated David Cameron a “twat” for calling the EU referendum, told BBC Breakfast that a “little group” who attended the independent boarding school has shown it is time for “working-class people” who have “lived a real life” to run the UK. His comments were welcomed by the Social Mobility Commission, which advises the government, and the Sutton Trust, a charity which campaigns for social mobility.When Boris Johnson became prime minister in July last year, Downing Street vowed: “Boris will build a cabinet showcasing all the talents within the party that truly reflect modern Britain.” Yet his cabinet was the most privately educated for a generation. The proportion who went to a private school (64 per cent) was more than twice that of Theresa May’s 2016 cabinet (30 per cent) and higher than Mr Cameron’s 2015 cabinet (50 per cent) and the 2010 coalition cabinet (62 per cent). More

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    Could Boris Johnson’s reference to Beveridge be the beginning of much-needed welfare reform?

    In his virtual Conservative Party conference speech earlier this month Boris Johnson reached into the British politician’s big bag of wartime cliches and pulled out a civil servant called Beveridge.“In the depths of the Second World War, in 1942 when just about everything had gone wrong, the government sketched out a vision of the post-war new Jerusalem that they wanted to build,” the prime minister recalled. “And that is what we are doing now – in the teeth of this pandemic.”What Johnson was referring to with that reference to 1942 was a report written by an old Liberal called Sir William Beveridge. More

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    The real meaning of the battle between Manchester and Westminster

    On the surface it was a bust-up over money. And not that much money in the scheme of things.The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, and council leaders in the city region refused to voluntarily submit to the region being moved into tier 3 anti-coronavirus restrictions because they said the government was not offering sufficient compensation for the local hospitality businesses that will now be forced to close.The mayor was asking for a minimum of £65m of assistance for firms from the government, or around £15m for each month of expected restrictions. These are not large sums, certainly not in the context of Greater Manchester’s estimated £71bn-a-year economy. More

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    Will the UK and EU resume talks on a trade agreement?

    A diplomatic dance between London and Brussels is continuing, as they hold “talks about talks” on whether to restart their stalled negotiations on a trade agreement.David Frost, Boris Johnson’s chief negotiator, held his second phone call in two days with Michel Barnier, his EU counterpart, on Tuesday. But hopes among EU officials that they could head to London for real talks were dashed when Downing Street said nothing had yet changed.
    Earlier the European Commission tried to meet a key UK demand by accepting that both sides would have to make compromises – a statement of the obvious, but one No 10 wanted to hear.  But UK officials argued this did not go far enough, as it did not amount to a “clear assurance” by the EU of the “fundamental change in approach” Mr Johnson demanded when he declared the talks “over” last Friday. More

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    What Keir Starmer can learn from Jacinda Ardern

    It is tempting for those on the progressive wing of politics to imagine that Jacinda Ardern’s remarkable victory in New Zealand marks a political turning point – not only for her country but the democratic world. In a sort of domino effect, the tablets of nationalist populism could gradually fall; a Joe Biden victory in the US next, with Donald Trump, the biggest domino gone… then a Conservative Party coup to remove Boris Johnson and – who knows – Jair Bolsonaro, Narendra Modi, Viktor Orban and Recep Tayyip Erdogan following suit. Maybe even Vladimir Putin? Well, it is a little fanciful. More practically there are some immediate lessons for the British Labour Party from the success of its Kiwi counterpart.  First is style. Ardern’s is bright, optimistic, aspirational and illuminated by that trademark smile. Too often left leaders fall into a miserabilist trap, banging on about failure and filing their propaganda with images of kids in poverty or patients on ventilators. That’s not to deny the reality of deprivation and the destitution that many families are falling into, nor the strains on the NHS. It is merely to point out that to catch the attention of the voters you’re better off not depressing them.  More

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    With a second wave and a looming no-deal Brexit, what can Boris Johnson do to avoid a winter of discontent?

    It takes a small but unpleasant leap of imagination to envisage life in Britain in January 2021 – a mere 10 weeks or so away. The country may well be faced with the twin challenges of Covid-19 and Brexit hitting lives and businesses almost simultaneously. The second wave of cases and accompanying lockdowns could easily peak at around the same time that the Brexit transition period is due to end, on 31 December. Don’t forget that that date is enshrined in law, and still backed by a considerable body of opinion in the Conservative party. Not that the coronavirus knows or cares either way; it will just carry on going about its lethal business.  Even if the Covid-19 crisis isn’t as severe as it was in the first wave in the spring, and even if some sort of Brexit free trade deal is cobbled together, there would be a severe hit to the economy, about the size of what we might have used to think of as an unusually sharp recession, with some long-term loss of investment and national income.If, however, there is a no-deal Brexit, with added chaos, and the NHS and testing systems cannot cope with the coming surge in cases and hospitalisations, the effect on the economy – jobs and investment – could be more dramatic still in the short term, and longer lasting.   More