Independent Premium

The phrase “guided by the science”, or some close variation, was the constant refrain of ministers at the start of the coronavirus crisis. The parroting of the line was reflexive, almost comical.  Even though there was never any such monolithic thing as “the science”, the idea was to reassure the public that lives and health (and not money) were being put first – hence the original Covid campaign slogan, “Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives”. The daily Downing Street press conferences would normally find a politician flanked by a couple of public health experts. Boris Johnson would usually appear in the distinguished company of Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser to the government, and Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England. Parallel arrangements were made in the devolved administrations. The idea was to stress how closely political leaders were being guided by scientific expert advice.Not so much now, however. There is some suggestion that neither the “rule of six” nor the new 10pm lockdown for pubs and restaurants has been modelled by the experts, including behavioural experts, to see whether the various measures now in place will actually reduce the R infection rate sufficiently to bring the spread of the virus under control.  More

If we didn’t have the annual political party conferences, would it be necessary to invent them? So far as the public is concerned, the answer has always been in the negative, but for the parties themselves, or at least the activists, they’re one of the highlights of the year. Meeting old friends, and enemies, gossiping in the bars, plotting in the break-out areas, rallying at packed fringe meetings in airless meeting rooms, the chance encounter with a junior minister in the lunch queue… such things make life worthwhile, a small reward for the hard, thankless task of campaigning, often in unwinnable constituencies. Covid has put a stop to all that, and instead the conference season is “virtual”. For Labour supporters “meeting” this week it also means they’ve effectively lost the opportunity to vote on policy and make much of a contribution to debate. That, given the continuing affection for former leader Jeremy Corbyn, might be a bit of a bonus for Sir Keir Starmer.Even if a more normal conference was possible this year, Sir Keir would find it hard to punch through a public health crisis. He has therefore that much less of a chance to introduce himself to the public, which for him must be a bit of a shame because the early signs are that the public like what they see, and he has usually performed well against the prime minister. The voters are more sceptical about the Labour Party, however. A week of arguments about the mistakes made in the 2019 election and the future of socialism is probably something Sir Keir can happily live without. This far away from a general election, Sir Keir has little in the way of solid policy to try and sell. His leader’s speech was all about Labour values and the future of Britain in the 2030s.   More

As a sort of shop steward for backbench Conservative MPs, Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, is a man worth listening to – especially so if you happen to be the current leader of the Conservative Party. More than one of Boris Johnson’s predecessors has had their career prematurely ended when they have lost the confidence of the ’22, but Johnson seems too arrogant to care. That could be his biggest error so far.In normal times, the 1922 committee conveys the worries of Tory MPs to ministers discreetly, and they are usually taken seriously. So it is a sign of how badly relations between Johnson and his parliamentary party have become that Sir Graham has taken to speaking out publicly. He has not held back; the government is “ruling by decree” over the Covid crisis, he claims, which is another way of saying that the MPs are being ignored. and they are angry about it. There will be a Commons vote next week on the “rule of six” and other Covid-related restrictions to normal life, and a Conservative rebellion is threatened. The government may only get its way with Labour support, something of a humiliation for a party with a supposed working majority of 87The Tory MPs are also dissatisfied with the way Brexit is being handled, up to and including the recent open declaration that the UK is ready to break international law. The leadership then had to offer some hasty concessions to avert defeat on the internal market bill, which proposed to override the UK-EU withdrawal agreement, and may well have to offer more as the bill makes its way to the House of Lords (where Johnson is even less beloved). More

It is not quite “New Labour” or even, as Keir Starmer memorably put it earlier this year, that the party is “under new management”.With the opening of Labour’s conference, online only this year, the party has unveiled its new slogan: “A New Leadership”.The phrase points to a deeper problem for Labour. More

The government’s plan to break international law in a “specific and limited way” around the Brexit agreement has caused an outcry in the UK, but what about across the Channel?  As it happens, Brussels isn’t really sure what to make of the whole thing. Michel Barnier is said to have laid out two scenarios to diplomats this week: either there are domestic reasons behind Boris Johnson’s plan, or he’s doing it as part of a feint in trade negotiations.If domestic, Mr Barnier’s argument goes, the UK government is worried about coming under fire for its handling of Covid-19 and wants to put a bonfire under Brexit again. With one eye on the polls, Downing Street realises it’s about to be blamed for a second wave and wants to get people talking about something else.   More

Boris Johnson’s threat to break international law by overriding part of his EU withdrawal agreement has not only provoked a backlash from Conservative MPs and Brussels. It now risks a diplomatic dispute with the US Congress.
Democratic congressmen Eliot Engel, Richard Neal and Bill Keating, who all chair committees in the House of Representatives, and Republican  Peter King asked him to  “abandon any and all legally questionable and unfair efforts to flout the Northern Ireland protocol of the withdrawal agreement and look to ensure that Brexit negotiations do not undermine the decades of progress to bring peace to Northern Ireland”. More