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    Brazil’s Presidential Election Will Determine the Planet’s Future

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    Brazil’s climate politics are shifting. That matters for the whole planet.

    The Amazon is emerging as a central issue in this year’s presidential campaign. Leaders have taken note.A message from your Climate Forward host: I’d like you to meet Manuela. She’s my partner on Climate Forward, and you’ll hear from her regularly when I’m out on reporting trips and unavailable to write the newsletter. Today, she takes you inside the climate politics of her home country, Brazil. — Somini SenguptaIn Brazil, beef isn’t just food. It’s political. It’s a symbol of dignity and equality, and the price of beef is a kind of barometer of well-being in the country.“Beef is not a privilege for people with money,” former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in an interview last year.But now, with elections just months away, da Silva, who is better known as Lula, seems to be taking a more environmentally conscious position. He’s suddenly talking about vegetable barbecues and organic salads.“I broadened my perspective,” he said on Twitter in February. He was not just concerned about whether the average Brazilian could afford a barbecue, Lula said, “but also vegetarian people, who don’t eat meat, being able to eat a good organic salad, us encouraging healthier agriculture in our country.”At 76, and with more than five decades of politics under his belt, Lula is adapting. And his willingness to do so makes it clear that, for the first time, climate and the environment will be at the center of the debates before Brazilians vote for president and the national legislature on Oct. 2.Lula, who led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, is one of the best-known politicians in the developing world. Under his administration, millions rose out of poverty, helped by China’s growing hunger for Brazilian commodities like soybeans and steel.Beef was, in some ways, a thread that ran though his presidency. It became a more frequent part of daily meals and one of the country’s major exports. Lula’s administration poured millions from Brazil’s development bank into meatpacking companies, and those operations, in turn, eventually grew to become major drivers of deforestation in the Amazon.This time around, though, Lula is talking about supporting that “healthier agriculture” he mentioned on Twitter.Izabella Teixeira, who served as one of Lula’s environment ministers, told me the former president always treated climate issues seriously. But she said she saw something new in the way climate and environment issues seem to be gaining prominence in his speeches and debates.“He is looking at it with a modern mind set,” she said. “It is one thing to correct the past, to undo mistakes. It is another thing to affirm new paths.”President Biden similarly made climate a pillar of his campaign, as did Gabriel Boric, who became president of Chile in March. Just a few weeks ago, Colombia’s leftist presidential candidate Gustavo Petro chose an environmental activist as his running mate. The first round of that election is May 29.The choice Brazilians make matters for global climate targets. Brazil is, by some measures, the world’s sixth-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. More important, though, is why: It is currently slashing its part of the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest, at a pace not seen in over a decade.Lula’s environmental record is mixed. Back in the day, his administration pushed for new policies that sharply curbed Amazon deforestation, even as agribusiness, including beef, grew. But he seemed to disregard the need for an energy transition, instead refusing to support legislation that would have required Brazil to phase out fossil fuels.Under the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, climate action has been all but abandoned. The recent explosion in deforestation rates, which have angered the world, will unquestionably be one of the main legacies of his presidency.Brazil’s current policies have intensified its climate challenge. And it’s not just because of beef. Soy, the country’s top commodity, is increasing pressure on the Cerrado, the country’s vast tropical savanna. There’s also Brazil’s heavy dependence on oil and steel exports.Bolsonaro’s rise to power is widely seen as a response to a multibillion dollar corruption scandal that upended Brazilian politics years ago. Prosecutors said Lula was implicated at the top of the scandal. He spent 580 days in prison in connection with a conviction that was ultimately overturned.As Lula has clawed his way back into public life, he has refused to acknowledge mistakes in the corruption scandal. When it comes to climate policy, though, he has signaled a willingness to reform his legacy.Earlier this week, speaking to thousands of Indigenous people gathered in a demonstration in Brasília, the capital, he promised to appoint an Indigenous cabinet minister. It would be a first for Brazil, a country where Indigenous people are at the forefront of the environmental movement.Past governments of his Workers’ Party, Lula said, “didn’t do all they should have done” for Indigenous people.So far, Lula has the lead over Bolsonaro, who is seeking re-election, in all the main opinion polls, though the race has been tightening. Hunger, unemployment, inflation and the Covid pandemic will also be major issues during the campaign.But the two candidates’ radically different views on the environment could be crucial. According to a poll in September, 80 percent of voters believe protecting the Amazon rainforest should be a priority for presidential candidates.A majority also said a specific plan to defend the Amazon would increase their willingness to vote for a candidate.California’s plan to eliminate gas cars, if adopted, would very likely set the bar for the broader auto industry.Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesEssential news from The TimesPhasing out gas cars: Officials in California made public plans to prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.White House departure: People close to Gina McCarthy, President Biden’s top climate adviser, say she plans to quit because she is unhappy with the slow pace of progress.Even cactuses aren’t safe: More than half of species could face greater extinction risk by midcentury, a new study found, as rising heat and dryness test the plants’ limits.Antarctic puzzle solved: Researchers say the collapse of the two ice shelves was most likely triggered by vast plumes of warm air from the Pacific.‘Silent victim’ of war: Research on past conflicts suggests that, in addition to the human toll, the Russian invasion of Ukraine could have a profound environmental impact.From the Opinion sectionDitch the gas-powered leaf blower: Get an electric one or just use a rake, Jessica Stolzberg writes.Other stuff we’re followingThe latest issue of National Geographic is all about saving forests.A new analysis showed that many big utilities in America are actively pushing back against climate policies, according to The Washington Post.Banks around the world are abandoning coal projects, except in China, according to Bloomberg.A new podcast from the Food & Environment Reporting Network talks to farmers about what they are doing to adapt to climate change.Parts of the Sacramento Valley in California have received their earliest-ever “red flag” warning for fire danger, Capital Public Radio reported.One TikToker found the transportation of the future.Adélie penguins on an iceberg near Paulet Island at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Tomás MunitaBefore you go: For these birds, location mattersAdélie penguins are having a rough time on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, where warming linked to climate change has occurred faster than almost anywhere else on the planet. One researcher called the situation a “train wreck” for the birds. On the eastern side of the peninsula, however, it’s a very different story. Adélie populations there seem to be doing just fine. You can find out why, and see some impressive photos from a recent survey expedition in our article.Thanks for reading. We’ll be back on Tuesday.Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward. Reach us at climateforward@nytimes.com. We read every message, and reply to many! More

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    Elecciones en Ecuador: el ganador no aparece en la boleta

    Su candidato no llegó a la segunda vuelta del domingo, pero el avance del partido indígena Pachakutik en la primera ronda de votación ha transformado la agenda política nacional.TARQUI, Ecuador — Aunque su candidato no está en la boleta electoral, el gran ganador de la segunda vuelta presidencial del domingo en Ecuador estaba claro antes de que se emitiera el primer voto: el movimiento indígena del país que ha sido marginado durante mucho tiempo.El partido indígena y sus aliados sacudieron la nación en la primera ronda electoral en febrero, al ganar la mitad de todos los estados, con lo que se convirtieron en la segunda presencia más grande en el Congreso y transformaron la agenda de los finalistas de la contienda presidencial del domingo: el izquierdista Andrés Arauz y el conservador Guillermo Lasso.“La política ecuatoriana nunca será la misma”, aseveró Farith Simon, profesor de Derecho y columnista ecuatoriano. “Todavía hay racismo, pero también hay una reivindicación del valor de la cultura indígena, del orgullo en su papel nacional”.Ansiosos por atraer a los votantes indígenas y conscientes de la necesidad de trabajar con el nuevo y poderoso bloque indígena en el Congreso, Arauz y Lasso renovaron sus mensajes y desplazaron la contienda de la discusión polarizadora centrada en el socialismo versus el conservadurismo que ha definido la política nacional durante años. En vez de eso, los debates giran en torno a la desigualdad tan arraigada en Ecuador y a un modelo económico que depende de la exportación de petróleo y la extracción minera en las tierras indígenas.Ambos candidatos han prometido promulgar mayores protecciones medioambientales y conceder a las comunidades indígenas más poder de decisión sobre la extracción de recursos. Lasso, un banquero de 66 años, se comprometió a mejorar las oportunidades económicas de los indígenas que, a pesar de décadas de progreso, están muy por debajo del promedio nacional en el acceso a la educación, la atención sanitaria y el empleo.Ambos candidatos han prometido más salvaguardas ambientales y otorgar a las comunidades indígenas participación en las decisiones de extracción de recursos.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesArauz, de 36 años, un economista que lideró la contienda durante la primera ronda electoral, prometió gobernar Ecuador como un verdadero país “plurinacional” en reconocimiento de sus 15 naciones indígenas. La designación, aunque más bien simbólica, había sido solicitada durante décadas por Pachakutik, el partido indígena del país, como un poderoso reconocimiento del lugar central que ocupa su pueblo en Ecuador.El ascenso de Pachakutik en la escena nacional no solo llamó la atención de la minoría indígena del país, sino que también planteó cuestiones de identidad más profundas para todo el electorado. Aunque solo el ocho por ciento de los ecuatorianos se identificó como indígena en el último censo, gran parte de la población es mestiza.“Esta es una conversación difícil para nosotros como nación, pero no hay vuelta atrás”, afirmó Simon.El principal responsable del cambio político es el activista medioambiental Yaku Pérez, el candidato presidencial de Pachakutik en la primera ronda electoral de febrero.Pérez, de 52 años, se quedó fuera de la segunda ronda por muy poco, pero amplió en gran medida el atractivo histórico de Pachakutik con su apoyo a los derechos de la mujer, la igualdad de las personas que pertenecen a la comunidad LGBTQ y los esfuerzos para luchar contra el cambio climático. Pérez también apoyó el derecho al aborto y el matrimonio entre personas del mismo sexo, lo que creó tensiones dentro de su electorado indígena, socialmente conservador.Partidarios de Pachakutik en febrero. Yaku Pérez, el candidato a la presidencia de Pachakutik, por poco se perdió la segunda vuelta, pero amplió enormemente el atractivo de su partido.Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“Yaku Pérez tuvo una enorme capacidad para abrir sus horizontes, su discurso, para incorporar otros temas que no habían estado ahí” en la política ecuatoriana, comentó Alberto Acosta, excandidato presidencial de Pachakutik.El ascenso de Pérez forma parte de un cambio generacional más extenso en los movimientos de izquierda de Latinoamérica. Impulsados en parte por las redes sociales y las protestas políticas en Estados Unidos, donde la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos cuentan con grandes diásporas, los políticos más jóvenes de la izquierda están dando prioridad a los temas relacionados con el medioambiente, el género y las minorías frente a la doctrina marxista de sus mentores.En el vecino Perú, Verónika Mendoza, de 40 años, figura entre los principales contendientes a la presidencia en las elecciones del domingo, y como parte de su plataforma promete conceder títulos de propiedad a las comunidades indígenas y proteger el medioambiente. En Bolivia, la lideresa indígena Eva Copa, de 34 años, ganó hace poco la alcaldía de El Alto, una ciudad que es un crisol de culturas y que se considera un referente.Esta nueva generación de líderes va más allá de la tradicional división izquierda-derecha y desafía la dependencia histórica que tienen sus países en los grandes proyectos mineros, petroleros y agroindustriales para el crecimiento económico, afirmó Carwil Bjork-James, antropólogo de la Universidad de Vanderbilt en Tennessee.“Se trata de grandes cuestiones continentales que los movimientos indígenas han planteado desde hace mucho tiempo”, señaló Bjork-James. “Ver que estas preguntas se plantean en la esfera política es un nuevo nivel”.Sus rivales afirman que este marco de referencia es corto de miras. Las naciones sudamericanas no tienen otra alternativa que depender de los ingresos procedentes de las materias primas para recuperarse de la pandemia. Y solo a través del desarrollo económico, dicen, se pueden abordar plenamente las desigualdades.En Ecuador, Pérez consiguió casi el veinte por ciento de los votos en febrero, pero su partido, Pachakutik, y sus aliados pasaron de nueve a 43 escaños en el Congreso, con lo que se convirtieron en los líderes de la fracturada legislatura de 137 escaños.En un principio, la campaña se centró en el legado de Rafael Correa, el presidente democrático que más tiempo ocupó el cargo en Ecuador. Durante el auge de las materias primas en la década de 2000 sacó a millones de personas de la pobreza, pero su estilo autoritario y las acusaciones de corrupción en su contra dejaron a la nación sumida en una amarga división.Andrés Arauz, candidato de izquierda, en un acto de campaña en Quito la semana pasada. Presentó un mensaje especial para los votantes indígenas. Cristina Vega Rhor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCorrea, quien dejó el cargo en 2017, eligió a Arauz para que representara su movimiento de izquierda este año, lo cual catapultó a este hombre de 36 años a la cima de las encuestas a pesar de su limitada experiencia y reconocimiento nacional. Lasso centró su mensaje de campaña inicial en el temor de que Correa siguiera ejerciendo su influencia.Sin embargo, los resultados de la primera vuelta demostraron “que gran parte de la población no se deja encasillar en aquel enfrentamiento de correístas y anticorreístas, que es muy simple y limita los problemas ecuatorianos a una visión binaria”, comentó Acosta, el excandidato.El éxito electoral de Pachakutik se deriva de una ola de protestas nacionales en octubre de 2019, cuando el movimiento indígena marchó en Quito, la capital, para exigir la derogación de un muy impopular recorte del subsidio a la gasolina. Las protestas se tornaron violentas y en ellas murieron al menos ocho personas, pero el gobierno retiró el recorte del subsidio tras doce días de disturbios.“Eso ha demostrado que los pueblos indígenas estamos buscando la transformación de este sistema dominante, capitalista que busca solamente atender a los sectores más pudientes”, declaró Diocelinda Iza, lideresa de la nación quichua en la provincia central de Cotopaxi.La vida de Pérez, candidato a la presidencia, refleja las penurias del movimiento indígena. Nació en un valle alto de los Andes, en el sur de Ecuador, en una familia de campesinos empobrecidos. Su padre era quichua y su madre cañari.Guillermo Lasso, el candidato conservador, en campaña en Guayaquil. También ha ampliado su plataforma.Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSus padres trabajaban en la finca de un terrateniente local sin remuneración, a cambio de vivir en su propiedad, un acuerdo rural que ha cambiado poco desde la época colonial.De su infancia, Pérez dice que recuerda el trabajo aparentemente interminable en el campo, las punzadas de hambre y la humillación que sentía en la escuela cuando su madre acudía a las reuniones de padres vestida con faldas tradicionales.“Yo sentía mucha vergüenza de ser indígena, de venir del campo, de ser campesino, de mi padre ser chacarero”, declaró Pérez en una entrevista en marzo. Para tener éxito en la escuela, “uno terminaba blanqueándose, colonizándose, renegando de nuestra identidad”.Pérez acabó estudiando en una universidad local, ejerciendo el derecho e involucrándose en la política a través de asociaciones locales que defienden los derechos comunales del agua. Ascendió hasta convertirse en gobernador de la región ecuatoriana de Azuay, la quinta más poblada del país, antes de renunciar para presentarse a la presidencia.Su historia resuena en otros indígenas, muchos de los cuales ven los esfuerzos políticos actuales en el contexto de los cinco siglos transcurridos desde la conquista colonial de Ecuador.“No lo hacemos por una persona”, dijo la dirigente indígena, Luz Namicela Contento, “sino por un proyecto político”.José María León Cabrera More

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    Indigenous Party, Not on the Ballot, Is Still a Big Winner in Ecuador Election

    Its candidate didn’t reach Sunday’s presidential runoff, but the party’s powerful showing in the first round of voting has transformed the national agenda.TARQUI, Ecuador — Though its candidate is not on the ballot, one big winner in Sunday’s presidential runoff in Ecuador was clear before the first vote was cast: the nation’s long-marginalized Indigenous movement.The Indigenous party and its allies jolted the nation in the first round of voting in February, winning half of all states, becoming the second-largest presence in Congress and transforming the agenda of the finalists in Sunday’s presidential race, the leftist Andrés Arauz and the conservative Guillermo Lasso.“The politics of Ecuador will never be the same,” said Farith Simon, an Ecuadorean law professor and columnist. “There’s still racism, but there’s also a re-vindication of the value of Indigenous culture, of pride in their national role.”Eager to court Indigenous voters and mindful of the need to work with the newly powerful Indigenous bloc in Congress, Mr. Arauz and Mr. Lasso have revamped their messages and shifted the contest from the polarizing socialist-versus-conservative ground that has defined national politics for years. Debates are emerging instead on Ecuador’s deep-seated inequality and on an economic model reliant on the export of oil and metals extracted from Indigenous lands.Both candidates have promised to enact greater environmental safeguards and to grant Indigenous communities more say over the extraction of resources. Mr. Lasso, 66, a banker, has vowed to improve economic opportunities for Indigenous people, who, despite decades of progress, lag far behind national averages in access to education, health care and jobs.Both candidates have promised to enact greater environmental safeguards and to grant Indigenous communities more say over the extraction of resources. Johanna Alarcon for The New York TimesMr. Arauz, 36, an economist who led in the first round of voting, has promised to lead Ecuador as a true “plurinational” country in recognition of its 15 Indigenous nations. Though largely symbolic, the designation had been sought for decades by the country’s Indigenous party, Pachakutik, as a powerful acknowledgment of its people’s central place in Ecuador.The rise of Pachakutik on the national stage has not only brought attention to the country’s Indigenous minority, it has posed deeper questions of identity for the entire electorate. Though just 8 percent of Ecuadoreans identified themselves as Indigenous in the last census, much of the population is ethnically mixed.“This is a difficult conversation for us as a nation, but there’s no turning back,” Mr. Simon said.The man most responsible for the political sea change has been the environmental activist Yaku Pérez, the Pachakutik presidential candidate in February’s first round of voting.Mr. Pérez, 52, narrowly missed the runoff, but he greatly broadened Pachakutik’s historic single-digit appeal with his support for women’s rights, equality for L.G.B.T.Q. people and efforts to fight climate change. Mr. Pérez also backed abortion rights and same-sex marriage, creating tensions inside his socially conservative Indigenous constituency.Pachakutik supporters in February. Yaku Pérez, the Pachakutik presidential candidate, narrowly missed the runoff, but he greatly broadened the party’s appeal.Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“Pérez had an enormous capacity to open his horizons, his discourse, to incorporate themes that weren’t there” in Ecuadorean politics, said Alberto Acosta, a former Pachakutik presidential candidate.Mr. Pérez’s rise is part of a larger generational shift in Latin America’s leftist movements. Partly driven by social media and political protests in the United States, where most Latin American nations have large diasporas, younger left-leaning politicians are prioritizing environment, gender and minority issues over the Marxist doctrine of their mentors.In neighboring Peru, Verónika Mendoza, 40, is among the top contenders in Sunday’s presidential election, promising to grant land titles to Indigenous communities and protect the environment. In Bolivia, the 34-year-old Indigenous leader Eva Copa recently won a mayor’s race in El Alto, a melting-pot city considered a bellwether.This new generation of leaders is going beyond the traditional left-right divide, challenging their countries’ historic reliance on large mining, oil and agribusiness projects for economic growth, said Carwil Bjork-James, an anthropologist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.“These are big continental questions that the Indigenous movements have been asking for a long time,” Mr. Bjork-James said. “To see these questions being asked politically is a new level.”Such a framework is shortsighted, their rivals say. South American nations have no alternative but to rely on revenue from raw materials to recover from the pandemic. And only through economic development, they say, can inequalities be fully addressed.In Ecuador, Mr. Pérez managed to win nearly 20 percent of February’s vote, but his party and its allies soared from nine to 43 congressional seats in the election, becoming kingmakers in the country’s fractured 137-seat legislature.The campaign had initially focused on the legacy of Rafael Correa, Ecuador’s longest-serving democratic president. He had lifted millions from poverty during a commodities boom in the 2000s, but his authoritarian style and the corruption allegations that trailed him had left the nation bitterly divided.Andrés Arauz, a leftist candidate for president, campaigning in Quito last week. He has tailored a message for Indigenous voters.Cristina Vega Rhor/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Correa, who left office in 2017, picked Mr. Arauz to represent his leftist movement this year, catapulting the 36-year-old to the top of the polls despite his limited experience and national recognition. Mr. Lasso centered his early campaign message on fears that Mr. Correa would continue to exert influence.But the first-round results “showed that a great part of the population doesn’t want to be boxed into this conflict between Correa’s supporters and opponents, which reduces Ecuadoreans’ problems to a binary vision,” said Mr. Acosta, the former candidate.Pachakutik’s electoral success this year traces to a wave of national protests in October 2019, when the Indigenous movement marched on the capital, Quito, to demand the repeal of a deeply unpopular cut in gasoline subsidies. The protests turned violent, claiming at least eight lives, but the government withdrew the subsidy cut after 12 days of unrest.“We showed the country that the Indigenous people are looking for a transformation of this dominant system that only serves the most affluent,” said Diocelinda Iza, a leader of the Kichwa nation in the central province of Cotopaxi.The life of Mr. Pérez, the presidential candidate, embodies the travails of the Indigenous movement. He was born in a high Andean valley in southern Ecuador to a family of impoverished farmers. His father was Kichwa, his mother Kañari.Guillermo Lasso, the conservative, campaigning in Guayaquil. He, too, is broadening his platform.Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHis parents worked on the estate of a local landowner without pay in return for living on his property, a rural arrangement that has changed little since colonial times.From his childhood, Mr. Pérez said he remembers the seemingly endless toil in the fields, the pangs of hunger, and the humiliation he felt at school when his mother came to parent meetings dressed in traditional skirts.“I felt a lot of shame to be Indigenous, to come from the field, to be a farmer, to have a sharecropper father,” Mr. Pérez said in an interview in March. To succeed at school, he said, “I ended up whitening myself, colonizing myself, rejecting our identity.”Mr. Pérez ended up studying at a local university, practicing law and becoming involved in politics through local associations defending communal water rights. He rose to become the governor of Ecuador’s Azuay region, the country’s fifth-most populous, before quitting to run for president.His story has resonated with other Indigenous people, many of whom see the political efforts of today in the context of the five centuries since Ecuador’s colonial conquest.“We’re not campaigning for a person,” said one Indigenous leader, Luz Namicela Contento, “but for a political project.”Jose María León Cabrera reported from Tarqui, Ecuador, and Anatoly Kurmanaev from Moscow. Mitra Taj contributed reporting from Lima, Peru. More