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    Biden’s Chief Economist Processes the Election With ‘Confusion, Guilt’

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    Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, was a leading architect of “Bidenomics.”Since the election, Jared Bernstein, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has often found himself in a down mood — dealing, he says, with “confusion, guilt” and “cognitive dissonance.”President-elect Donald J. Trump’s sweeping victory was fueled in part by lousy consumer sentiment and working-class Americans’ frustration with the underlying state of the economy. That is a big blow to the idea of “Bidenomics,” of which Mr. Bernstein was a leading evangelist and architect.The U.S. economy recovered from the pandemic with greater strength than any of its peers. Unemployment stayed below 4 percent for the longest stretch since the 1960s, and remains low. A widely predicted, long-feared recession never materialized. And data show there is continuing a boomlet in manufacturing construction and business productivity.But price increases also spiked on President Biden’s watch. Several prominent economists, peers of Mr. Bernstein’s, argue that the administration’s robust fiscal response caused the inflation. And other issues of affordability — especially housing — have sapped the optimism of many households in the last couple of years.Calling in from Paris on Friday after serving as chair of an economic meeting of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation at the Château de la Muette, Mr. Bernstein, a longtime Biden confidant, spoke with The New York Times about how he is making sense of the moment.You told me three years ago that one goal of the American Rescue Plan was to intentionally “run the economy with a little bit more heat.” We’ve seen benefits of that, but in light of ensuing inflation, do you regret the size and the scope of the American Rescue Plan?We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      High-Yield Savings Accounts Are Still a Good Deal

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      Interest rates have been falling, but deposits are earning more than inflation.You’ve probably been discouraged to see the interest rate on your high-yield savings account fall during the past couple of months. But your money is still earning much more than it would in a traditional savings account — and more than inflation.Rates paid on cash in savings accounts have been dropping since the Federal Reserve began cutting its key interest rate in September as inflation cooled. The central bank cut rates again, by a quarter point, at its meeting this month, and another cut in December is seen as likely, though not certain because of a recent uptick in inflation.Banks are following the Fed’s lead in gradually reducing interest rates. Even so, the rates paid on federally insured high-yield savings accounts, many offered by banks that operate solely or mostly online, are still beating inflation, which was 2.6 percent on an annual basis in October.“High-yield savings accounts are still attractive relative to traditional savings accounts,” particularly for emergency or “rainy day” funds that savers want to be able to tap into quickly, said Alan Bazaar, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at Hollow Brook Wealth Management in Katonah, N.Y.Online banks were offering rates of 4 percent or higher this week, compared with a national average rate of just 0.56 percent for all types of savings accounts, according to the financial site Bankrate. If you put $5,000 in a savings account for a year at the average rate, you’d earn just $28, compared with about $200 with a high-yield account. (At some of the biggest national banks, which are offering just 0.01 percent, you’d end up with a measly 50 cents.)Just a few years ago, savers were getting 1 percent on their deposits at best, so 4 percent is nothing to scoff at, said Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate. High-yield accounts can also be attractive for funds needed in the not-so-distant future — say, for a child heading to college or for retirees looking to set aside cash for living expenses.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Powell, Fed Chair, Will Likely Face Heavy Pressure From Trump

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      The chair of the Federal Reserve made clear he would not resign, even under pressure. But pressure from the White House is likely, market watchers say.Jay Powell, the Fed chair, with President Trump during more tranquil times in 2017.Carlos Barria/ReutersPowell pushes back Jay Powell and the Fed may have pulled off the improbable soft landing in taming inflation while not crashing the economy into recession, proving many a Wall Street naysayer wrong.But an even bigger wildcard looms in another Donald Trump presidency — what Trump 2.0 might mean for interest rates, Fed independence and the Fed chair’s own job.That tension burst into the open at the Fed’s news conference on Thursday. The usually dry event had moments of high drama that nearly overshadowed the decision to cut the benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point. Powell delivered a forceful “no” when asked by Victoria Guida of Politico if he would consider resigning if Trump asked.He delivered a more emphatic response when pressed by another reporter on whether the president had the legal authority to fire him. “Not permitted under the law,” Powell said.Trump has made waves by saying that a president should have a say in rates policy. And suggestions have circulated from inside the president-elect’s camp that he would sideline Powell if re-elected — something Trump flirted with during his first term after appointing Powell in 2017.The S&P 500 advanced as the news conference wore on, closing at another record, and Treasury bonds also rallied.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Democrats Got the Recovery They Wanted. It Wasn’t Enough.

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      America’s economic growth is the envy of its global counterparts. But voters wanted more from the Biden administration — specifically, lower prices.Every major U.S. ally is uncomfortably familiar with one of President Biden’s favorite charts. It is a graph of economic recoveries in the wealthy world since the end of the pandemic recession. It shows growth flatlining for the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan over the past two years — while in the United States, growth keeps rocketing up.That chart helps explain why voters have punished ruling parties in election after post-Covid election around the world. Sluggish growth, coupled with a surge in consumer prices, proved toxic for the Conservative Party in Britain. It helped hobble President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition in France and contributed to Japan’s longtime leaders, the Liberal Democrats, losing their majority this fall.Germany’s governing coalition has been so weakened by recession and so flustered by disagreements over how to revive growth that it teetered this week on the brink of collapse.Advisers to Mr. Biden and to Vice President Kamala Harris, his successor candidate in the presidential election, had hoped that America’s outlier economy would rescue them from a similar fate.It did not.Ms. Harris lost to former President Donald J. Trump. Democrats will spend at least months parsing data for conclusions on what drove the defeat. Certainly, economic factors were only one contributor.But as Europe’s stumbling economies woke on Wednesday to the news of Ms. Harris’s defeat, one thing was immediately clear: America’s growth engine may be the envy of the world, but it is not the envy of the American public.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      I.M.F. Says Inflation Fight Is Largely Over but Warns of New Threats

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      The International Monetary Fund said protectionism and new trade wars could weigh on growth.The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats.New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth.The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected.Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, possibly leading to a recession.“Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      ECB Cuts Interest Rates Again as Eurozone Inflation Slows

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      Policymakers who set interest rates for the 20 countries that use the euro have lowered rates in back-to-back meetings for the first time since 2011.The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday for the third time in about four months, as inflation in the eurozone has cooled faster than expected and economic growth has been sluggish.Policymakers who set interest rates for the 20 countries that use the euro lowered their key rate by a quarter point, to 3.25 percent. Thursday’s decision came just five weeks after a cut at the bank’s previous meeting, and on a day that a report showed the eurozone’s inflation rate slowing to 1.7 percent in September, falling below the bank’s 2 percent target for the first time in more than three years.“The disinflationary process is well on track,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the central bank, said at a news conference in Ljubljana, Slovenia.The rate move was also influenced by weaker-than-expected economic data in the past few weeks. Whether it was the inflation data or surveys of economic activity, “it is the same story,” she said: “It’s all heading in the same direction — downwards.”After years of trying to force inflation down with high interest rates, central bankers around the world are walking a tightrope as they consider how quickly to cut interest rates. Lowering rates too fast could reignite simmering inflationary pressures, but keeping rates too high for too long risks slowing the economy substantially and inflation becoming too weak.In recent weeks, policymakers have suggested that rate cuts could be more aggressive as inflation has slowed significantly and economic growth has been lackluster. Last month, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by a half-point, paving the way for quicker or bigger rate cuts in Europe, analysts said. On Wednesday, traders increased their bets that the Bank of England would pick up the pace of its rate cuts after data showed inflation in Britain fell to 1.7 percent in September, below the bank’s 2 percent target.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Job Market Is Chugging Along, Completing a Solid Economic Picture

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      For months, the economy has been like a jigsaw with one mismatched piece: Consumer spending has been holding up and overall growth has been solid, but the job market has looked treacherously wobbly.As of Friday, the last piece of that puzzle is finally clicking into place.Fresh employment data for September showed that hiring picked up strongly, the unemployment rate dipped and wage growth came in strong last month. While it is just one report, it matches up with a number of recent signals that the economy is robust.Data revisions released last week showed that growth has been stronger and incomes have been more solid than previously understood. Retail sales data are holding up. And now, it looks as if employers are meeting resilient consumer demand by continuing to expand their workforces. In fact, the report reinforced that by many measures, the job market is as healthy as it has ever been.“The monster upside surprise suggests that the labor market may actually be a picture of strength, not weakness,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a research note after the report.The fresh data is good news for both the Federal Reserve and the White House, both of which had been anxiously watching a recent tick up in the unemployment rate. When joblessness rises, it can herald a coming recession. If people are struggling to find work, they are likely to pull back on spending, which can further slow the economy.But the September data showed that unemployment ticked down to 4.1 percent, keeping it at a historically low level. And joblessness fell for Black workers, who often struggle more to find work when the economy is weakening.By several measures, hiring conditions are historically strong. People in their prime working years of 25 to 54 are employed at a rate only previously seen in the early 2000s. Average hourly earnings are strong — and climbing — even after adjusting for inflation. Women in their peak working ages are participating in the labor market at the highest levels on record.That combination is all the more notable given the economic ride that America has been on over the past four years. First, the pandemic shuttered businesses and pushed unemployment to towering heights. Then inflation took off, prodding Fed officials to sharply lift interest rates.Historically, such campaigns by the Fed have resulted in significant labor market slowdowns and even painful recessions.This time, though, the central bank appears to be on the cusp of achieving a rare soft landing, a situation in which inflation slows without causing a lot of economic pain in the process. In fact, there is no precedent in which the Fed has cooled inflation from levels as high as those reached in 2022 without incurring significant labor market costs in the process.But the fresh jobs data suggest that a gentle cooling is more than possible — it may be happening. More

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      Jobs Report Adds to Economic Momentum for Harris

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      Vice President Kamala Harris probably could not have hoped for a better run of pre-election economic data than what the United States has enjoyed over the last month, punctuated by Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report.In recent weeks, key inflation indicators have fallen close to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate, after years of running hot under Ms. Harris and President Biden. Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates by a half-percentage point to stoke economic activity, immediately bringing mortgage rates to their lowest point in two years. The Commerce Department confirmed that the economy has grown at a robust 3 percent clip over the last year, after adjusting for rising prices. The Census Bureau reported that the typical household’s inflation-adjusted income jumped in 2023.Those numbers had encouraged Democrats, including policymakers in the White House and close to Ms. Harris’s campaign team. Recent polls have shown Ms. Harris closing the gap, or pulling even, with former President Donald J. Trump on the question of who can best handle the economy and inflation.But it was Friday’s employment report — 254,000 jobs gained, with wages growing faster than prices — that appeared to give Harris boosters a particularly large dose of confidence. The report came less than a day after striking dockworkers agreed to return to work through the end of the year, avoiding what could have been a major economic disruption with a month to go before the election.“The combination of this great job market and easing inflation is generating solid real wage and income gains,” said Jared Bernstein, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. “While those continue to power this expansion forward, we’re also seeing record investment in key sectors, an entrepreneurial boom and gains in worker bargaining power to help ensure that workers get their fair share of all this growth.”Even Mr. Biden, who has attempted to strike a balance between cheering the economy’s performance and acknowledging the struggles created by years of fast-rising prices, sounded more upbeat than normal for a post-jobs-report statement.“Today, we received good news for American workers and families with more than 250,000 new jobs in September and unemployment back down at 4.1 percent,” he said.Independent economists were less cheerful. Several of them acknowledged the strong numbers but warned that they could be illusory, and that the Fed may need to continue to cut interest rates in the months to come to keep unemployment from rising.“The September jobs report is unambiguously strong,” James Knightley, the chief international economist at ING, wrote in a research note. But he immediately warned that other indicators, including Americans’ personal assessments that the job market is worsening, cloud the picture. “We feel that the risks remain skewed towards weaker growth.” More

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      Stocks Tumble in Japan After Party’s Election of New Prime Minister

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      Stocks dropped after Japan’s governing party chose Shigeru Ishiba, a critic of the country’s longstanding ultralow interest rates, as its leader.Stocks in Japan fell sharply after the country’s governing party chose a leader some view as hawkish on interest rates, underlining how central bank decisions continue to set the course of the world’s fourth-largest economy after decades of easy money policy.On Friday, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party elected Shigeru Ishiba, a proponent of raising interest rates to help curb inflation, as Japan’s next prime minister.Mr. Ishiba narrowly defeated Sanae Takaichi, a disciple of Shinzo Abe, who remains committed to the former prime minister’s longstanding policies aimed at strengthening Japan’s economy by maintaining ultralow interest rates.Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell more than 4 percent in early trading on Monday.Some economists said the decline, which they described as the “Ishiba Shock,” was caused by the unwinding of stock trading that reflected expectations that Ms. Takaichi would be elected.The market jitters show how the recent L.D.P. election came at a pivotal moment for the Japanese economy.Following a recent surge of inflation, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates twice this year. The bank’s governor, Kazuo Ueda, has indicated he plans to continue increasing rates, though it is unclear how quickly that might happen.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More