Inflation (Economics)

Subterms

    More stories

    • 100 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      Democrats’ Feared Red October Arrives Before the Midterms

      by

      Many Democrats hoped it would be a “weird election.” But with Election Day just three weeks away, the midterms aren’t shaping up that way.Here’s the thing about elections: When they break, they usually break in one direction. And right now, all the indicators on my political dashboard are blinking red — as in, toward Republicans.First, there’s inflation. It hasn’t gone away as the Biden administration had hoped, and the Federal Reserve likewise seems to be hamstrung in dealing with it. Americans are being squeezed between exorbitant prices for consumer goods — inflation is still at 40-year highs — and interest rates that the Fed has ratcheted up as it seeks to rein in those prices. Anyone trying to buy a home now faces 30-year mortgage rates that have soared past 6 percent.The latest New York Times/Siena poll, my colleague Nate Cohn wrote this week, suggests that “the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place,” with voters’ sour view of the economy driving the downturn in the party’s prospects.As John Halpin, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, wrote recently in his newsletter, “inflation is a political wrecking ball for incumbent governments” around the world. Why should the United States be different?Then there’s crime, which has rapidly moved up the ladder of issues that matter to voters. In a new Politico/Morning Consult poll, 64 percent of voters said crime would play a “major role” in how they voted, versus 59 percent who said the same of abortion access.Democrats have bet heavily that widespread anger over the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade would drive voters away from the Republican Party — especially college-educated women in the suburbs. President Biden pledged on Tuesday to protect abortion rights in a clear attempt to bring the issue back to the forefront of public discussion.Democrats’ strategy might have been a smart move in an otherwise brutal year for the party. But it has also come at a cost: All those abortion ads have taken resources away from whacking Republicans for opposing the policies Democrats passed in Congress this year.Some of those policies are broadly popular, like the way that the Inflation Reduction Act allows the federal government to negotiate prices for certain prescription drugs.But a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that only 36 percent of voters were aware of this development. That’s a huge communication failure — or a reflection that Democrats don’t think promoting their accomplishments would move or mobilize many votes.And finally, there’s the historical pattern of midterm elections, which tend to be referendums on the party in power. Older voters, who broadly lean Republican, also usually turn out more reliably in nonpresidential years, while younger, more transient Democratic voters are more fickle.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.G.O.P. Gains Edge: Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with an advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, a Times/Siena poll found.Codifying Roe: President Biden pledged that the first bill he would send to Capitol Hill next year if Democrats expand their control of Congress in the midterm elections would be legislation to enshrine abortion rights into law.Florida Senate Race: In the only debate of the contest, exchanges between Senator Marco Rubio and his Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demings, got fiery at times. Here are four takeaways.Aggressive Tactics: Right-wing leaders are calling on election activists to monitor voting in the midterm elections in search of evidence to confirm unfounded theories of election fraud.So, as the polls move the G.O.P.’s way, this election is looking a lot more “normal” than it might have seemed over the summer. Robert Gibbs, a former White House press secretary under President Barack Obama, wrote in his newsletter today: “We’re still in a very weird election, but it looks like it’s going to be more normal as we get into these final 21 days.”For Democrats hoping that this midterm election might be different from most others, normalcy is bad news.The Republican nominee in one of Rhode Island’s two congressional districts, Allan Fung, left, is leading Seth Magaziner, the state treasurer and a Democrat, in public polls.Corey Welch/WPRI, via Associated PressRepublicans go on offenseAs the playing field tilts toward Republicans, conservative groups are pouring money into newly competitive races, especially on the more volatile House side.This week’s Times/Siena poll showed Republicans leading Democrats by four percentage points in the generic congressional ballot, a widely monitored gauge of voter sentiment that asks respondents which party’s candidate they are most likely to vote for. It’s an especially meaningful indicator in races with no Democratic incumbent, because it takes time and money for little-known candidates to build up their personal brands. And the Democrats’ national brand is faring poorly right now.A super PAC aligned with Representative Kevin McCarthy, the Republican minority leader, just bought $4 million in television ads targeting Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, whose new Hudson Valley district Biden won by five points in 2020. Maloney is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and his defeat would be deeply embarrassing to House Democrats.Republicans are also crowing about their chances of winning three open seats in Oregon that were previously held by Democrats, as well as a long-shot bid to unseat Representative Jahana Hayes in northwestern Connecticut. And even in wicked-blue Rhode Island, the Republican nominee in one of the state’s two congressional districts, Allan Fung, is leading Seth Magaziner, the state treasurer and a Democrat, in public polls.The Senate, where Democrats have huge cash advantages in races that are driven much more by personality, still looks like a tossup.But even there, Democrats are feeling some new heartburn. In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray’s lead over Tiffany Smiley, the Republican, has narrowed slightly since the summer. And as the polls have tightened, Smiley has outraised her Democratic opponent for the first time — by nearly a two-to-one margin.A loss for Murray would be a major upset. And if Democrats now need to worry about a state like Washington, that’s a dire sign for their chances in November.What to readFewer debates, little retail politicking, scarce town halls: This year’s campaigns look far different from those in the past as traditional norms erode, Lisa Lerer and Jazmine Ulloa write.Senator Bernie Sanders is planning an eight-state blitz over the final two weekends before the midterm elections, looking to rally young voters and progressives.Newly released body camera footage shows how Gov. Ron DeSantis’s much-publicized crackdown on voter fraud caused confusion among those arrested.In a 2021 video, Donald Trump inquired about whether a documentary filmmaker recording an interview with him was a “good Jewish character,” described Persians as “very good salesmen” and complained that Israeli Jews favored him more than Jews in the United States, Maggie Haberman reports.Capitol Hill notepadRepresentative Kevin McCarthy, left, and Senator Mitch McConnell with President Donald Trump in 2020.Doug Mills/The New York TimesMcCarthy zigs while McConnell zagsMitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader at the time of the Ukraine impeachment inquiry, warned President Donald Trump that his infamous call with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was “not perfect” — even as McConnell downplayed its importance in public.At the same time, Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, was scoffing behind closed doors about the nature of the offense, while leaning on wavering Republicans to reject Democrats’ calls for an impeachment inquiry.The dueling anecdotes are revealed in a book out this week, “Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’s Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump,” by Rachael Bade and Karoun Demirjian. They encapsulate an important difference between the two Republican leaders as they seek a return to power.Both men went along with many of Trump’s excesses. But while McCarthy usually told Trump what he wanted to hear, McConnell sometimes pushed back. It’s why Trump has railed against McConnell, calling him an “old crow,” and recently accused him of harboring a “death wish” — but has helped set McCarthy on a glide path to becoming speaker if Republicans retake the House next month.“If this is the ‘launching point’ for House Democrats’ impeachment process, they’ve already overplayed their hand,” McConnell said after Trump released a transcript of the call, according to the book. “It’s clear there is no quid pro quo that the Democrats were desperately praying for.”But earlier, McConnell’s chief counsel, Andrew Ferguson, zeroed in one remark: Trump’s request to “do us a favor, though,” which Ferguson told his boss was “the dynamite line.” Agreeing, McConnell told Trump privately that the call with Zelensky was a problem.“This call is not perfect,” McConnell told Trump. “And you are going to get in deep trouble for it.”McConnell also cautioned his fellow Republican senators not to take a side. “Don’t box yourself in until you know all the facts,” he told them.McCarthy handled the Ukraine imbroglio rather differently. At a meeting with Trump’s aides to go over the transcript, he was unmoved by what he read, asking, “Is this everything?”Then he dialed up Representative Mark Amodei, a Nevada Republican who had expressed some support for an impeachment inquiry — and pressured him to walk back his remarks ASAP.“Using government agencies to, if it’s proven, to put your finger on the scale of an election, I don’t think that’s right,” Amodei had said. The comments set off a media frenzy, leading some to conclude that impeachment might gain Republican support.Bade and Demirjian write that McCarthy was worried Trump would “flip” when he saw the comments.“Oh, man, I screwed up,” Amodei said when the two men spoke. McCarthy instructed him to put out a statement to repair any potential damage with Trump. He quickly did, clarifying, “In no way, shape, or form, did I indicate support for impeachment.”David Frum, a conservative writer for The Atlantic and one of Trump’s leading critics, recently opined that McCarthy “thinks the job to be the speaker of the House is a little bit like being a concierge at some rock-star hotel, where people come downstairs at all hours and they make crazy demands, and you say, ‘Yes, sir, right away, sir. We’ll have the dim sum and cocaine to your room in 15 minutes, sir.’”Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

    • 113 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Elections Approaching, Erdogan Raises the Heat Again With Greece

      by

      Turkey’s president suggested that troops “may suddenly arrive one night” in Greece. With inflation rampant and the lira sinking, a manufactured crisis might be just the thing he needs.ISTANBUL — Last week at a closed dinner in Prague, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece was addressing 44 European leaders when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey interrupted him and started a shouting match.Before stalking from the room, Mr. Erdogan accused Mr. Mitsotakis of insincerity about settling disputes in the eastern Aegean and blasted the European Union for siding with its members, Greece and Cyprus, according to a European diplomat and two senior European officials who were there.While the others, flabbergasted and annoyed, finished their dinners, Mr. Erdogan fulminated at a news conference against Greece and threatened invasion. “We may suddenly arrive one night,” he said. When a reporter asked if that meant he would attack Greece, the Turkish president said, “Actually you have understood.”The outburst was only the latest from Mr. Erdogan. As he faces mounting political and economic difficulties before elections in the spring, he has been ramping up the threats against his NATO ally since the summer, using language normally left to military hawks and ultranationalists.While few diplomats or analysts are predicting war, there is a growing sense among European diplomats that a politically threatened Mr. Erdogan is an increasingly dangerous one for his neighbors — and that accidents can happen.Mr. Erdogan needs crisis to buoy his shaky standing at home after nearly 20 years in power, a diplomat specializing in Turkey said, requesting anonymity. And if he is not provided one, the diplomat said, he may create one.The rising tensions between Greece and Turkey, both NATO members, now threaten to add a difficult new dimension to Europe’s efforts to maintain its unity in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine and its accumulating economic fallout.Mr. Erdogan met President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Kazakhstan on Thursday.Pool photo by Vyacheslav ProkofyevAlready, Mr. Erdogan has made himself a troublesome and unpredictable ally for his NATO partners. His economic challenges and desire to carve out a stable security sphere for Turkey in a tough neighborhood have pushed him ever closer to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.Mr. Erdogan has earned some shelter from open criticism by allies because of his efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, especially in the deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports.But he has refused to impose sanctions on Russia and continues to get Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, while asking Moscow to delay payment for energy.On Thursday, Mr. Erdogan met Mr. Putin in Kazakhstan, where they discussed using Turkey as an energy hub to export more Russian gas after the pipelines to Germany under the Baltic Sea have been damaged.But it is the escalating rhetoric against Greece that is now drawing special attention.Sinan Ulgen, the director of EDAM, an Istanbul-based research institution, said that of course there was an electoral aspect to Mr. Erdogan’s actions. But there were also deep-seated problems that foster chronic instability and dangerous tensions.“Turkey and Greece have a set of unresolved bilateral disputes,” he said, “and this creates a favorable environment whenever a politician in Ankara or Athens wants to raise tensions.”The two countries nearly went to war in the 1970s over energy exploration in the Aegean, in 1995-96 over disputed claims over an uninhabited rock formation in the eastern Mediterranean, and in 2020, again over energy exploration in disputed waters. “And now we’re at it again,” Mr. Ulgen said. “And why? Because of elections in Turkey and Greece.”Mr. Mitsotakis is also in campaign mode, with elections expected next summer, damaged by a continuing scandal over spyware planted in the phones of opposition politicians and journalists. As in Turkey, nothing appeals to Greek patriotism more than a good spat with an old foe.A Turkish drill in August off Mersin, Turkey. Turkey and Greece nearly went to war in 2020 over Turkish energy exploration in disputed waters.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHe has sought to appear firm without escalating. Confronted at the dinner in Prague, Mr. Mitsotakis retorted that leaders should solve problems and not create new ones, that he was prepared to discuss all issues but could not stay silent while Turkey threatened the sovereignty of Greek islands.“No, Mr. Erdogan — no to bullying,” he said in a recent policy speech. He told reporters that he was open to talks with Mr. Erdogan despite the vitriol, saying he thought military conflict unlikely. “I don’t believe this will ever happen,” he said. “And if, God forbid, it happened, Turkey would receive an absolutely devastating response.”He was referring to Greek military abilities that have been significantly bolstered recently as part of expanded defense agreements with France and the United States.Mr. Mitsotakis has also taken advantage of American annoyance with Mr. Erdogan’s relations with Russia and his delay in approving NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden to boost ties with Washington. In May, he was the first Greek prime minister to address Congress and urged it to reconsider arms sales to Turkey.He has said Greece will buy F-35s, while Turkey, denied F-35s because of its purchase of a Russian air-defense system, is still pressing to get more F-16s and modernization kits, using NATO enlargement as leverage.But Mr. Erdogan is facing considerable problems at home, making tensions with Greece an easy and traditional way to divert attention and rally support.Mr. Erdogan is presiding over a disastrous economy, with inflation running officially at 83 percent a year — but most likely higher — and the currency depreciating. Turkish gross domestic product per capita, a measure of wealth, has dropped to about $7,500 from more than $12,600 in 2013, based on Turkey’s real population, which now includes some four million Syrian refugees, according to Bilge Yilmaz, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.Mr. Erdogan is presiding over a disastrous economy, with inflation running officially at 83 percent a year.Yasin Akgul/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Erdogan has kept cutting interest rates against conventional economic advice. “We need to reverse monetary policy,” said Mr. Yilmaz, who is touted as a likely finance minister should Mr. Erdogan lose the election. “A strong adjustment of the economy will not be easy.”There is also growing popular resentment of the continuing cost of the refugees, who were taken in by Mr. Erdogan as a generous gesture to fellow Muslims in difficulty.Still, Mr. Erdogan is thought to have a solid 30 percent of the vote as his base, and government-controlled media dominate, with numerous opposition journalists and politicians jailed or silenced.In a report on Wednesday, the European Union criticized “democratic backsliding” and said that “in the area of democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights, Turkey needs to reverse the negative trend as a matter of priority with addressing the weakening of effective checks and balances in the political system.”Still, at this point, analysts think Mr. Erdogan could lose his majority in Parliament and might just lose the presidential election itself.That is an analysis firmly rejected by Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, the AKP, said Volkan Bozkir, a former diplomat and member of Parliament, who says flatly that Mr. Erdogan and his party will be re-elected.Constantinos Filis, the director of the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece, believes that Mr. Erdogan is trying to keep all options open, “casting Greece as a convenient external threat and creating a dangerous framework within which he could justify a potential move against Greece in advance.”As for Washington, he said, they are telling Mr. Erdogan: “Thank you for what you did in Ukraine, of course you haven’t imposed sanctions on Russia, but OK, you’re in a difficult position, strategically, diplomatically, economically — but don’t dare to do something in the Aegean or the Eastern Mediterranean that will bring trouble to NATO.”Migrants at the border between Turkey and Greece in March 2020. There is growing popular resentment of the continuing cost of the refugees in Turkey, who include four million Syrians.The New York TimesMore likely, Mr. Filis said, Mr. Erdogan would again send migrants toward Europe, or launch another energy exploration in disputed areas off Cyprus or Crete, which produced near clashes in 2020, or intercept a Greek ship transporting military equipment to one of the Aegean Islands.Mr. Ulgen also does not expect armed conflict but would not be surprised. “It could happen; it’s not something we can rule out anymore,” he said. “But if it happens, it will be small-scale.”Niki Kitsantonis More

    • 100 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Lessons From Liz Truss’s Handling of U.K. Inflation

      by

      The sharp policy U-turn by Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, reveals the perils of taking the wrong path in the fight against scalding inflation.Government leaders in the West are struggling with rising inflation, slowing growth, and anxious electorates worried about winter and high energy bills. But Liz Truss, Britain’s prime minister, is the only one who devised an economic plan that unnerved financial markets, drew the ire of global leaders and the public and undermined her political standing.On Friday, battered by savage criticism, she retreated. Ms. Truss fired her top finance official, Kwasi Kwarteng, for creating precisely the package of unfunded tax cuts, billion-dollar spending programs and deregulation that she had asked for.She reinstated a scheduled increase in corporate taxes to 25 percent from 19 percent, a rise she had previously opposed. That announcement came on top of backtracking last week on her proposal to eliminate the top 45 percent income tax on the highest earners. The prime minister, in office a little over five weeks, also promised that spending would grow less rapidly than proposed, although no specifics were offered.The drama is still playing out, and it’s unclear if the Truss government will survive.In the United States, President Biden, while waging his own political battles over gas prices and inflation, has not proposed anything like the kind of policies that Ms. Truss’s government attempted, nor have any other leaders in Europe.Still, for European governments whose economies are suffering greatly from shocks and energy price surges caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, there are timely lessons from the debacle playing out in London.One of the strongest was delivered early on by the International Monetary Fund: Don’t undermine your own central bankers. The I.M.F., which usually reserves such scoldings for developing nations, on Thursday doubled down on its message. “Don’t prolong the pain,” Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director, admonished.How to blunt the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable without further stoking inflation is the dilemma that every government is confronting.The Bank of England in London has aggressively tried to slow the sharp rise in prices by slowing the British economy.Alberto Pezzali/Associated Press“That is the question of the hour,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University who was attending the annual meetings of the World Bank and I.M.F. in Washington this week.Tension between the fiscal spending policies proposed by a government and the monetary policies controlled by central banks is not unusual. At the moment, though, central bankers are engaged in delicate policy maneuvers in the fight against a level of inflation not seen in decades. With the rate in Britain nearing 10 percent, the Bank of England has moved aggressively to slow down climbing prices through a series of interest rate increases aimed at crimping consumer and business spending.Any expansion of government spending is going to interfere with that aim to some degree, but Ms. Truss’s plan was far too big and too ill defined, Mr. Prasad said.“Measures to help households hit hard by energy increases, by themselves, would not have created that much of a stir,” he said. Many other countries have proposed exactly that. And the European Union has proposed a windfall tax on energy profits to help finance those subsidies.Ms. Truss, instead of coming up with a way to pay for energy assistance, pushed to eliminate a corporate tax increase and cut income taxes for the wealthiest segment of the population. The result was a reduction in government revenue and a ballooning of Britain’s debt.“Overall, the package did not have much clarity in terms of how it would support the economy in the short run without raising inflation,” Mr. Prasad said.By contrast, Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, cited the way governments and central banks worked in tandem when the pandemic struck in 2020 to keep economies from collapsing, issuing vast amounts of public debt.“Central banks printed every single dollar, euro and pound that governments spent” to support households and businesses because of the Covid crisis, Mr. Vistesen said. But now the circumstances have changed, and inflation is setting economies aflame.The actions of the Federal Reserve in the United States illustrate the switch central banks have made: In the harrowing early weeks of the global outbreak of the coronavirus, the Fed embarked on an extraordinary program to stimulate the economy and stabilize markets. This year, the Fed has been swiftly raising interest rates in a bid to slow growth.Both the United States and eurozone countries have somewhat more wiggle room than Britain, because the dollar and the euro are much more widely used around the world as currencies held in reserve than the British pound.Kwasi Kwarteng, Britain’s former chancellor of the Exchequer, left 11 Downing Street after Ms. Truss fired him on Friday.Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated PressEven so, European governments can help households and businesses get through an energy crisis, Mr. Vistesen said, but they can’t embark on an open-ended spending spree.They also need to take account of what is happening in other economies. The richest countries that make up the Group of 7 are essentially part of the same “monetary and fiscal convoy,” said Will Hutton, president of the Academy of Social Sciences. By championing a Thatcher-era blend of steep tax cuts and deregulation, he said, the Truss government strayed too far from the rest of the flotilla and the economic mainstream.The adherence to 1980s-era trickle-down verities also revealed the risks of sticking with outdated policies in the face of changing circumstances, said Diane Coyle, a ​​public policy professor at the University of Cambridge.“The situation in 1979 was very different,” Ms. Coyle said. “There were sclerotic high taxes and an overregulated economy, but not anymore.” Today, taxes in Britain are lower, and the economy is less regulated than the average member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club of 38 major economies.“The character of the economy has changed,” she said. “Public investment in research and skills are more important.”In that sense, what was missing from Ms. Truss’s economic plan was as important as what was included. And what Britain is lacking, said Mariana Mazzucato, an economist at University College London, is a visionary public investment program like the trillion-dollar climate and digitalization plans adopted by the European Union or the climate and infrastructure program in the United States.A rate of Inflation nearing 10 percent in Britain has affected the price of groceries and how people spend their money.Alex Ingram for The New York Times“If you don’t have a growth plan, an industrial strategy innovation policy,” Ms. Mazzucato said, “then your economy won’t expand.”Both Ms. Mazzucato and Ms. Coyle emphasized that Britain had some specific economic handicaps that predated the Truss administration, including the 2016 vote to exit the European Union, a stubborn lack of productivity, anemic business investment, and lagging research and development.Still, Ms. Coyle offered some advice that referred pointedly to Ms. Truss. “I think the main lesson is: Don’t shoot yourself in the foot.” More

    • 138 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      French Refineries Strike May Presage a Winter of Discontent for Europe

      by

      Bitten by inflation, workers are demanding a greater share of the surging profits of energy giants. It’s the kind of unrest leaders fear as they struggle to keep a united front against Russia.LE HAVRE, France — The northern port city of Le Havre is less than 25 miles away from two major oil refineries. But on Friday, the pumps at many gas stations were wrapped in red and white tape, the electric price signs flashing all nines. Little gasoline was to be had.Across France, a third of stations are fully or partly dry, victims of a fast-widening strike that has spread to most of the country’s major refineries, as well as some nuclear plants and railways, offering a preview of a winter of discontent as inflation and energy shortages threaten to undercut Europe’s stability and its united front against Russia for its war in Ukraine.At the very least the strike — pitting refinery workers seeking a greater share of the surging profits against the oil giants TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil — has already emerged as the first major social crisis of Emmanuel Macron’s second term as president, as calls grow for a general strike next Tuesday.“It’s going to become a general strike. You will see,” said Julien Lemmonier, 77, a retired factory worker stepping out of the supermarket in Le Havre on a gray and rainy morning. He warned that if the port workers followed suit, “It will be over.”Striking employees of the Total refinery on Thursday.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe widening social unrest is just what European leaders fear as inflation hits its highest level in decades, driven in part by snarls in post-pandemic global supply chains, but also by the mounting impact of the tit-for-tat economic battle between Europe and Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.Economic anxiety is palpable across Europe, driving large protests in Prague, Britain’s biggest railway strike in three decades, as well as walkouts by bus drivers, call center employees and criminal defense lawyers, and causing many governments to introduce relief measures to cushion the blow and ward off still more turbulence. Airline workers in Spain and Germany went on strike recently, demanding wage increases to reflect the rising cost of living.For France the strikes have touched a long-worn nerve of the growing disparity between the wealthy few and the growing struggling classes, as well as the gnawing worry about making ends meet in the cold winter ahead.Workers at half of the country’s eight refineries are continuing to picket for higher wages in line with inflation, as well as a cut of the sky-high profits their companies made over recent months, as the price of gasoline has surged.“The money exists, and it should be distributed,” said Pascal Morel, the regional head of Confédération Générale du Travail, or CGT, France’s second-largest union, which has been leading the strikes. “Rather than laying claim to the striking workers, we should lay claim to their profits.”Pascal Morel, the regional head of Confédération Générale du Travail, one of France’s largest unions, which has been leading the strikes. Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesSlow to notice at first, the country was rudely awoken to the strike’s effect this week, when pumps across the country ran out of fuel, forcing frustrated motorists to hunt around and then line up — sometimes for hours — at stations that were still open. Nerves quickly frayed, and reports of fistfights between enraged drivers buzzed on the news.In Le Havre, as in the rest of the country, residents revealed mixed feelings about the strikes. Some expressed solidarity with the workers, while others complained about how a small group was holding the entire country hostage. On both sides of the divide, however, many feared the strike would spread.The State of the WarA Large-Scale Strike: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia unleashed a series of missile strikes that hit at least 10 cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, in a broad aerial assault against civilians and critical infrastructure that drew international condemnation and calls for de-escalation.Crimean Bridge Explosion: Mr. Putin said that the strikes were retaliation for a blast that hit a key Russian bridge over the weekend. The bridge, which links the Crimean Peninsula to Russia, is a primary supply route for Russian troops fighting in the south of Ukraine.Pressure on Putin: With his strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, Mr. Putin appears to be responding to his critics at home, momentarily quieting the clamors of hard-liners furious with the Russian military’s humiliating setbacks on the battlefield.Arming Ukraine: The Russian strikes brought new pledges from the West to send in more arms to Ukraine, especially sophisticated air-defense systems. But Kyiv also needs the Russian-style weapons that its military is trained to use, and the global supply of them is running low.“It’s going to bring France to a standstill and I assure you it doesn’t need that,” said Fatma Zekri, 54, an out-of-work accountant.On Thursday, workers echoed the call for a general strike next Tuesday originally issued by the CGT and later supported by three other large unions. And a long-planned protest by left-wing parties over the rising cost of living scheduled for Sunday threatens to become even larger.For Mr. Macron, the strike holds obvious perils, with echoes of the social unrest of the Yellow Vest movement — a widespread series of protests that started as a revolt against higher taxes on fuel. The movement may have dissipated, but its anger has not.In Le Havre, residents revealed mixed feelings about the strikes. Some expressed solidarity with the workers, while others complained about how a small group was holding the entire country hostage.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe protests paralyzed France for months in 2018 and 2019, led by lower-middle class workers who took to the streets and roundabouts, raging against a climate change tax on gas that they felt was an insulting symbol of how little the government cared about them and their sliding quality of life.The current strikes illustrated a longstanding question that continues to torment many in the country, said Bruno Cautrès, a political analyst at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University — “Why do I live in a country that is rich and I am struggling?”Speaking of the president, Mr. Cautrès said, “He has not managed to answer this simple question.”After winning his re-election last April, Mr. Macron promised he would shed his reputation as a top-down ruler and govern the country in a more collaborative way.“The main risk is that he will not succeed in convincing people that the second term is dedicated to dialogue, to easing tensions,” Mr. Cautrès said.But even as he faced criticism that his government had allowed the crisis to get to this point, Mr. Macron sounded defiant on Wednesday night, saying in an interview with the French television channel France 2 that it was “not up to the president of the republic to negotiate with businesses.”The Total refinery, shuttered during a strike by workers.Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesHis government has already forced some workers back to a refinery near Le Havre and a depot near Dunkirk.“I can’t believe that for one second, our ability to heat our homes, light our homes and go to the gas pump would be put at risk by French people who say, ‘No, to protect my interests, I will compromise those of the nation,’” he said.Still, Mr. Macron is treading a very fine line. The issue of “super profits” has become a charged one in Parliament, with opposition lawmakers from both the left and right demanding companies reaping windfalls be taxed, to benefit the greater population.Over the first half of the year, TotalEnergies made $10 billion in profit and Exxon Mobil raked in $18 billion. Western oil and gas companies have generated record profits thanks to booming energy prices, which have risen because of the war in Ukraine and allowed Russia to rake in billions in revenues even as it cuts oil and gas supplies to Europe. A recent OPEC Plus deal involving Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production is likely to further raise prices.Earlier this week, Exxon Mobil announced that it had come to an agreement with two of four unions working at its sites, “out of a desire to urgently and responsibly to put an end to the strikes.” But the wage increase was one percentage point less than CGT had demanded, and half the bonus.In its own news release, TotalEnergies said the company continued to aim for “fair compensation for the employees” and to ensure they benefited “from the exceptional results generated” by the company.On Friday, two unions at TotalEnergies announced they had reached a deal for a 7 percent wage increase and a bonus. But CGT, which has demanded a 10 percent hike, walked out of the negotiation and said it would continue the strike.To date, Mr. Macron has been loath to tax the oil giants’ windfall profits, worrying it would tarnish the country’s investment appeal, and preferring instead that companies make what he termed a “contribution.”However, last week the government introduced an amendment to its finance bill, in keeping with new European Union measures, applying a temporary tax on oil, gas and coal producers that make 20 percent more in profit on their French operations than they did during recent years.On Thursday, France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire also called on TotalEnergies to raise wages for salaried workers. And he announced that 1.7 billion euros, about $1.65 billion, would be earmarked to help motorists if fuel prices continued to rise.“It is a company that is now making significant profits,” Mr. Le Maire told RTL radio station on Thursday. “Total has paid dividends, so the sharing of value in France must be fair.”The pumps at gas stations were wrapped in red and white tape, the electric price signs flashing all nines. Andrea Mantovani for The New York TimesThe tangle of pipes and towering smokestacks of the hulking Total refinery in Gonfreville-l’Orcher, just outside of Le Havre, were eerily silent on Thursday, as union members burned wood pallets, hoisted flags and voted to continue the strike.Many believed their anger captured a building sentiment in the country, where even with generous government subsidies, people are struggling financially and are increasingly anxious about the winter of energy cutbacks. Inflation in France, though lower than in the rest of Europe, has surpassed 6 percent, jacking the prices of some basic supplies like frozen meat, pasta and tissues.“This era must end — the era of hogging for some, and rationing for others,” François Ruffin told the protesters on Thursday. Mr. Ruffin, a filmmaker turned elected official with the country’s hard-left France Unbowed party, rose to prominence with his satirical documentary film about France’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, and the loss of middle-class jobs to globalization.If anything should be requisitioned, it should be the profits of huge companies, not workers, many said at the protest sites.David Guillemard, a striker who has worked at the Total refinery for 22 years, said the back-to-work order had kicked a hornet’s nest. “Instead of calming people,” he said, “this has irritated them.” More

    • 88 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      Why Social Security’s Inflation Protection Is Priceless

      by

      Automatically adjusted lifetime income is rare and worth protecting, our columnist says.The 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security isn’t just a big benefit increase.It’s priceless.You can’t buy inflation-protected lifetime income like that on the open market, not from an entity as solid as the United States government.“People don’t appreciate what a terrific thing Social Security is, in so many ways,” said Charles D. Ellis, an author and investment consultant who has studied Social Security for decades. “The COLA is a reminder: When there is serious inflation, as we have right now, you can count on Social Security taking care of it for you.”If you are an investor, there are many ways of hedging against inflation, like I bonds, which are issued by the Treasury Department and currently pay 9.62 percent interest.But safe, monthly lifetime income that automatically keeps up with inflation? You get that with Social Security.“It’s just what investors need for retirement,” Zvi Bodie, professor emeritus in finance at Boston University, said in an interview. “But, unfortunately, you can’t really get it anywhere else.”How It StartedWhile the market value of Social Security’s inflation-adjusted income can’t be easily priced, it can be evaluated in limited ways.The new COLA is really big — the biggest since 1981, when the adjustment was 11.2 percent. These automatic, yearly inflation increases began in 1975, during a decade of high inflation, when politicians understood that retirees needed help to keep up with rising prices. Before then, it took specific congressional action to raise benefit levels.The first automatic increase was 8 percent in 1975; the highest was 14.3 percent in 1980. The adjustments didn’t drop below 5 percent until 1983, after the Federal Reserve, led by Paul A. Volcker, threw the economy into two successive recessions.Until last year’s 5.9 percent COLA, the previous nine annual adjustments were invariably below 3 percent. Social Security COLAs didn’t command big headlines.More on Social Security and RetirementMedicare Costs: Low-income Americans on Medicare can get assistance paying their premiums and other expenses. This is how to apply.Downsizing in Retirement: People selling their homes often have to shell out more to spend less. Here’s what to consider.Claiming Social Security: Looking to make the most of this benefit? These online tools can help you figure out your income needs and when to file.A Look at the Current NumbersBut high inflation has come back with a vengeance, and the current COLA is welcome for the roughly 70 million people, including retirees and the disabled, who receive Social Security benefits.For someone receiving $1,754 a month — the average monthly benefit for someone retiring in December — the COLA means an increase of about $153 a month, or $1,831 a year.For many people, these increases are absolutely critical.Consider a few statistics.Among older women who receive Social Security retiree or survivor benefits, 42 percent get at least half their income from Social Security. Among older men, 37 percent do. If you are living on Social Security, every cent matters after the price of food has risen 11.2 percent this year, as the latest numbers show.Even for fairly affluent people, the inflation-adjusted payments can be significant.Imagine that your earnings have put you at the high end of the national income distribution for many years. In addition, you have followed the standard advice to maximize benefits by not claiming Social Security until you reach 70. That will get you the maximum retirement benefit for Social Security, which is $4,194 a month, or $50,328 for this year.The inflation adjustment amounts to an annual increase of about $4,379, raising your yearly Social Security benefits to $54,707. And the inflation increase will be compounded, as part of your Social Security income, year after year.I don’t know about you, but the total strikes me as substantial. What’s more, if prices soar next year, there will be another significant inflation adjustment.Most jobs don’t afford this kind of protection, but Social Security is different. You don’t have to convince anyone that your income — now or in the future — ought to keep up with inflation.Social Security may seem irrelevant if you are young. You may believe it’s too early to think about retirement, or you may have been told that Social Security won’t be there for you when you are older.But be aware that these inflation adjustments are likely to affect you.All else being equal — that is, if your promised benefits aren’t cut because of future funding shortfalls — the inflation adjustments will increase what you receive down the road.Now, it’s true that unless Congress takes action, the Social Security Trust Funds are projected to run out of money around 2035. If that happened and Congress did absolutely nothing, the tax revenues coming regularly into the Social Security system would still pay about 80 percent of your promised benefits.But what about the rest of the money?I asked Mr. Ellis. He is a co-author of the book “Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It.”First, he said, Congress is virtually certain to fully protect people already receiving benefits. “No politician wants to tell older people, who vote in large numbers, that their benefits are being cut,” he said.As for everyone else, it’s important that people understand how valuable these benefits are and make their voices heard, Mr. Ellis said. Social Security has been short on funds before, and the Trust Funds can easily be built up again, much as they were in the 1980s. “I think the more people understand about Social Security,” he said, “the more likely it is that it will be preserved.” An Invaluable Benefit Without a Market PriceAll that said, how much would Social Security be worth if you could buy and sell a lifetime of benefits?You can’t really do this in financial markets, but let’s look more closely.In technical terms, Social Security is a form of an annuity — insurance that pays annual income for the rest of your life (and, for retirees, with benefits for your surviving spouse and children until they reach age 18).Annuities are sold by insurance companies in many shapes and sizes, but they aren’t popular, even though economists often recommend simple, low-cost annuities for safe and stable income.You can buy annuities that will increase their payouts by, say, 3 percent every year, but none are available now that include full cost-of-living adjustments like Social Security.There are two reasons for this, said Wade Pfau, a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services. First, inflation was so low for so long that there was little demand for them, and the market withered. Second, as the current inflation surge demonstrates, “no one can accurately predict inflation, and it’s extremely difficult for insurance companies to make long-term projections and price the annuities properly,” he said.Ariel Stern, the chief operating officer of ImmediateAnnuities.com, which provides estimates of annuity costs, identified the only person who had ever used the service to buy an annuity with a full COLA. That was Jim Oatman, a 73-year-old actuary in Arizona, who purchased one from Principal for himself and his wife in 2018, shortly before Principal, the last company to offer such annuities, stopped selling them.In a telephone interview, Mr. Oatman said he had paid $200,000 for the annuity. Its monthly payouts started at $602 in early 2019. That was about half of what he said he could have gotten in monthly payments for an annuity without an inflation adjustment.“It’s expensive, but I’m a numbers guy, and I remember the 1970s and wanted the protection,” Mr. Oatman said. One COLA increased the payments to $635 a month, and another, bigger “bump” will come in November, he said, but added ruefully, “It will take years of inflation for me to catch up to what I would have had without that inflation adjustment.”Still, “it’s a risk thing,” he said. “If inflation goes very high for several years running, I’m going to feel like the smartest guy around.”Even when you could buy an annuity like that, the market was tiny. In addition, interest rates were lower a few years ago, and payouts for annuities were lower, too. For these reasons, we can’t really use Mr. Oatman’s annuity to come up with reliable market pricing for Social Security benefits.In addition, no private company is directly comparable to the U.S. government, which, even with its manifest problems, is backed by the world’s largest economy and most powerful military. In theory, the government should be safer than a mere corporation — if not for Social Security funding’s politics-induced uncertainty, which economists have been measuring for years.Still, for a ballpark estimate, it seems safe to say that as an annuity on the open market, the average monthly Social Security benefit awarded in December, even without that invaluable COLA, would be worth close to $300,000 and probably much more, based on estimates from ImmediateAnnuites.com.Even at the low end, that’s more than double the $144,000 that the average household had in 401(k) and individual retirement accounts in 2019, according to the most recent estimates provided by Anqi Chen, a senior research economist of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The inflation adjustment has immeasurable value on top of that.If you are fairly affluent, consider this.As an annuity, the maximum Social Security benefit without any COLA would be worth at least $665,000 and as much as $909,000. Adding a COLA of any kind would push its value to $1 million, and much more than that for a full inflation adjustment linked to the Consumer Price Index, like Social Security’s.If anything, these numbers understate Social Security’s monetary value. They are intended merely to give you an appreciation of benefits that are, really, priceless.Anything that precious needs to be preserved.By all means, put away as much money as you can and invest it wisely.But these estimates suggest that the most important steps most Americans can take to fortify their retirement involve Social Security.Work as long as you can at a job you enjoy, and delay claiming Social Security until as late as possible — ideally, until you turn 70. That’s just a start.You must pay Social Security taxes your entire working life. If you want to collect what you are owed when the time comes, make it crystal clear to the political class that you expect every cent of the Social Security benefits you have been promised. More

    • 88 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Your Friday Briefing: U.S. Inflation Keeps Soaring

      by

      Plus Europe’s search for energy and U.S. attempts to hinder China’s technological development.Karl RussellU.S. inflation keeps soaringConsumer prices climbed far more quickly than expected in the U.S., grim news for the Federal Reserve as it tries to bring the most rapid price increases in four decades under control.Overall inflation climbed 8.2 percent in the year through September, more than some economists expected, and prices increased 6.6 percent after stripping out fuel and food, the so-called core index. That is a new high for the core index this year, and the fastest pace of annual increase since 1982.Fed officials are closely watching the monthly numbers, which give a clearer snapshot of how prices are evolving in real time. They offered more reasons to worry: Overall inflation climbed 0.4 percent in September, much more than last month’s 0.1 percent reading, and the core index climbed 0.6 percent, matching a big increase in the prior month. Takeaways: The disappointing inflation data is most likely bad news for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. What’s next: A sixth round of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year looks likely. Central bankers have signaled that they will consider an increase of up to three-quarters of a point at their next meeting in November.Eckardt Heukamp’s farm is the last in Lützerath.Ingmar Nolting for The New York TimesScrounging for energy in EuropeRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has left many Ukrainian cities in ruins. The war could also mean the end for a German farming village.Lützerath sits next to a coal mine and atop a large coal deposit, which the German government hopes to mine to make up for a looming shortage of cheap Russian gas, which Germany normally relies on for heat in the winter. Germany has pledged to wean itself off coal by 2030. Germans have traditionally been supportive of clean energy, and energy experts suggest that Lützerath’s coal is not necessary. But there has been little public backlash to destroying the village, and many Germans seem to have accepted that coal will be an important part of their near-term energy future.The State of the WarA Large-Scale Strike: President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia unleashed a series of missile strikes that hit at least 10 cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, in a broad aerial assault against civilians and critical infrastructure that drew international condemnation and calls for de-escalation.Crimean Bridge Explosion: Mr. Putin said that the strikes were retaliation for a blast that hit a key Russian bridge over the weekend. The bridge, which links the Crimean Peninsula to Russia, is a primary supply route for Russian troops fighting in the south of Ukraine.Pressure on Putin: With his strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, Mr. Putin appears to be responding to his critics at home, momentarily quieting the clamors of hard-liners furious with the Russian military’s humiliating setbacks on the battlefield.Arming Ukraine: The Russian strikes brought new pledges from the West to send in more arms to Ukraine, especially sophisticated air-defense systems. But Kyiv also needs the Russian-style weapons that its military is trained to use, and the global supply of them is running low.In Moscow, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin offered to export more gas to Europe via Turkey, potentially turning the country into a regional supply hub and solidifying Russia’s hold over Europe’s energy markets.In Paris, Parkour enthusiasts are saving energy by using superhero-like moves to turn off lights burning all night outside stores.In Ukraine, more than three dozen people have died in the past four days during Russia’s missile barrage. NATO’s secretary general vowed to “stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes,” and the E.U. announced that it planned to train Ukrainian soldiers on the union’s soil.A semiconductor factory in Nantong, China.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe U.S. push to hinder China’s technological developmentThe Biden administration wants to limit the Chinese military’s rapid technological development by choking off China’s access to advanced chips. China has been using supercomputing and artificial intelligence to develop stealth and hypersonic weapons systems, and to try to crack the U.S. government’s most encrypted messaging, according to intelligence reports. Last week, the administration unveiled what appear to be the most stringent U.S. government controls on technology exports to China in a decade, technology experts said.In dozens of interviews with officials and industry executives, my colleagues Ana Swanson and Edward Wong detailed how this policy came together. The administration spent months trying to convince allies like the Dutch, Japanese, South Korean, Israeli and British governments to announce restrictions alongside the U.S. But some of those governments feared retaliation from China, one of the world’s largest technology markets. Eventually, the Biden administration decided to act alone.Details: U.S. officials described the decision to push ahead with export controls as a show of leadership. They said some allies wanted to impose similar measures but were wary of antagonizing China; the rules from Washington that target foreign companies did the hard work for them.What’s next: The controls could be the beginning of a broad assault by the U.S. government. “This marks a serious evolution in the administration’s thinking,” said Matthew Pottinger, a deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration.THE LATEST NEWSAsiaStudents wearing hijabs were denied entry into Mahatma Gandhi Memorial College in Udupi, India, in February.Aijaz Rahi/Associated PressAn Indian Supreme Court panel was divided over a state’s ban on hijabs in schools, leaving it in place for now, Reuters reports.Keith Bradsher, The Times’s Beijing bureau chief, discusses what China’s struggle with Covid means before its important Communist Party congress.North Korea said it practiced firing two long-range cruise missiles on Wednesday that could be used as nuclear weapons, Reuters reports.World NewsA conservation biologist in Mérida State, Venezuela, in April. Miguel Zambrano/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe Living Planet Index concluded that monitored populations of wild vertebrates had declined on average by nearly 70 percent from 1970 to 2018. It’s a staggering figure, but a complicated one, too. A large-scale study in Scotland found that four out of 10 people infected with Covid said they had not fully recovered months later.The Iraqi Parliament elected a new president less than an hour after rockets targeted the Green Zone, where Parliament is based.Saudi Arabia pushed back against American threats of consequences for the kingdom’s cutting oil output with Russia and other countries, saying that the move was purely economic.What Else Is HappeningThe U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request from Donald Trump to intervene in litigation over classified documents seized from his Florida estate — a stinging rebuke to the former president. A jury sentenced the man who killed 17 people in 2018 at his former high school in Parkland, Fla., to life in prison instead of the death penalty. Follow our live coverage.The U.S. House of Representatives committee investigating the Capitol insurrection plans to subpoena Donald Trump, an aggressive move that will likely be futile. Here is our live coverage.A Morning ReadAn erect-crested penguin colony on Antipodes Island has been observed by a research team since 1998.Tui De Roy/NPL/Minden PicturesErect-crested penguins that inhabit the harsh Antipodes Islands in the South Pacific have a strange parenting move — laying an egg that’s doomed to die. Researchers don’t know why.Lives LivedAndy Detwiler lost his arms as a child and learned how to use his feet to drive a tractor, feed animals and custom-build farm equipment. He ran 300-acres of farmland and became a YouTube star.FOCUS ON CLIMATE Saving food, and the climateFood waste rotting in a landfill produces methane gas, which quickly heats up the planet. Worldwide, food waste accounts for 8 to 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, at least double that of emissions from aviation. A lot of it doesn’t need to be there: Thirty-one percent of food that is grown, shipped or sold is wasted. To slow global warming and feed people, governments and entrepreneurs are coming up with different ways to waste less food, writes my colleague Somini Sengupta. In California, grocery stores must donate food that’s edible but would otherwise be trashed; supermarket chains in Britain have done away with expiration dates on produce; and in South Korea, a campaign to end food waste in landfills has been underway for nearly 20 years.Food waste in South Korea declined from nearly 3,400 tons a day in 2010 to around 2,800 tons a day in 2019. In the latest experiment, the government has rolled out trash bins equipped with radio-frequency identification sensors that weigh exactly how much food waste each household tosses each month.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookRomulo Yanes for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Vivian Lui.Dried porcini mushrooms, fresh fennel and leeks provide deep umami flavor to this version of a classic French onion soup.What to ReadGeorge Saunders’s new short-story collection “Liberation Day” is littered with characters who are merely waiting for the final crashing down of the system.What to WatchThe animated documentary “Eternal Spring” revisits an incident when members of Falun Gong hijacked local television programming in China. Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: ♫ ♫ ♫ (5 letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here. You could also learn to play the piano, on a budget digital keyboard recommended by Wirecutter.That’s it for this week’s morning briefings. Have a great weekend. — DanP.S. “We Were Three,” a new podcast from The Times and Serial Productions, is an intimate look at a family in the aftermath of the pandemic.The latest episode of “The Daily” is an update on N, an Afghan teenager who escaped an arranged marriage to a Taliban member.You can reach Dan and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

    • 113 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Biden Warns Inflation Will Worsen if Republicans Retake Congress

      by

      HAGERSTOWN, Md. — President Biden laced into Republicans on Friday for trying to enact policies that would make “every kitchen table cost” go up while lavishing tax cuts on big corporations, shedding his usual tone of bipartisanship a month ahead of the midterm elections.In a speech before factory workers at a Volvo manufacturing facility, Mr. Biden defended his economic record and accused Republicans of political hypocrisy for seeking to reap the benefit of federal funds made available by legislation that they had opposed. He also laid out the stakes of the upcoming elections, bluntly warning that Republicans will try to scale back Medicare and Social Security benefits if they win control of Congress. And he accused Republicans of rooting against America’s economic success.“This is a choice between two very different ways of looking at the economy,” Mr. Biden said.Mr. Biden’s comments came as Labor Department figures showed that the United States economy added 263,000 jobs in September and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, from 3.7 percent a month earlier. The report suggests that the labor market is cooling as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates but that the central bank will likely have to take further steps to slow the economy in order to tame inflation.Mr. Biden said that the numbers were a sign that the economy was transitioning to stable growth.“Our job market continues to show resilience as we navigate through this economic transition,” he said. “The pace of job growth is cooling while still powering our recovery forward.”Despite concerns about an economic slowdown, Mr. Biden’s remarks were the latest attempt by the White House to highlight examples of America’s manufacturing resurgence with a focus on the automobile sector in the run-up to the November midterm elections.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Wisconsin Senate Race: Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, is wobbling in his contest against Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, as an onslaught of G.O.P. attack ads takes a toll.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.The Volvo facility in Hagerstown employs more than 1,700 workers and makes parts for Mack Trucks.The visit also came with political calculations, as Representative David Trone, a Maryland Democrat, was locked in a tight re-election race with his Republican challenger, Neil Parrott. Hagerstown is also close to the border with Pennsylvania, where the senate and governor’s races are two of the most consequential political contests in the country.Mr. Biden maintained a more pointed tone with Republicans as he made claims about the benefits of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act that Congress passed in August. He called out Republicans such as Representative Paul Gosar of Arizona and Representative Andy Barr of Kentucky for seeking federal funds for local projects while criticizing his agenda, calling it “socialism.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.“I didn’t know there were that many socialist Republicans,” Mr. Biden joked.Mr. Biden, who on Thursday evening attended a fund-raiser at the Manhattan home of the Democratic donor James Murdoch, said that Republicans have a “Park Avenue” view of the world that stands in stark contrast to his policies that are born out of concern for people in places like Scranton, Pa., where Mr. Biden was born, and Hagerstown.Republicans seized on signs of a cooling job market to assail Mr. Biden for economic mismanagement on Friday.“The economy is shrinking, inflation is raging, and job growth is slowing,” said Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee.While the White House has so far sounded very in line with the Fed’s push to fight the quickest inflation in four decades, that tone could shift somewhat as the economy begins to show cracks.The Biden administration has made it clear that it respects the Fed’s independence to set policy free of partisan interference, but it might be challenging for administration officials to embrace the central bank’s actions too loudly when the Fed’s policies are hurting the economy and inflicting pain on workers.Mr. Biden acknowledged that economic headwinds continued to persist, noting that gasoline prices are inching back up “because of what the Russians and the Saudis just did.”“I’m not finished with that just yet,” he added.Despite his sharper tone, Mr. Biden said that he remained hopeful that bipartisan cooperation could be possible after the election.“That’s my hope, that after this election, there will be a little return to sanity,” Mr. Biden said. “That we’ll stop this bitterness that exists between the parties and have people working together.” More

    • 125 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      Democrats’ Troubles in Nevada Are a Microcosm of Nationwide Headwinds

      by

      Inflation and a rocky economy are bolstering Republicans in their races against incumbent Democrats, motivating “an electorate that simply wants change,” as one G.O.P. consultant says.LAS VEGAS — The Culinary Workers Union members who are knocking on doors to get out the vote are on the cursed-at front lines of the Democratic Party’s midterm battle.Most voters do not open their doors. And when some do answer, the canvassers might wish they hadn’t.“You think I am going to vote for those Democrats after all they’ve done to ruin the economy?” a voter shouted one evening last week from her entryway in a working-class neighborhood of East Las Vegas.Miguel Gonzalez, a 55-year-old chef who described himself as a conservative Christian who has voted for Republicans for most of his life, was more polite but no more convinced. “I don’t agree with anything Democrats are doing at all,” he said after taking a fistful of fliers from the union canvassers.Those who know Nevada best have always viewed its blue-state status as something befitting a desert: a kind of mirage. Democrats are actually a minority among registered voters, and most of the party’s victories in the last decade were narrowly decided. But the state has long been a symbolic linchpin for the party — vital to its national coalition and its hold on the blue West.Now, Democrats in Nevada are facing potential losses up and down the ballot in November and bracing for a seismic shift that could help Republicans win control of both houses of Congress. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country. Gov. Steve Sisolak is fighting his most formidable challenger yet. And the state’s three House Democrats could all lose their seats.The Democratic juggernaut built by former Senator Harry M. Reid is on its heels, staring down the most significant spate of losses in more than a decade. More