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    Companies are using inflation to price-gouge Americans – and making it worse | Robert Reich

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    We learned this week that the Consumer Price Index climbed 3.5% in March from a year earlier, up from 3.2% in February, and faster than most economists anticipated.This poses a conundrum for central bankers who have made it clear they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates.The Fed’s high interest rates haven’t pushed America to the brink of a recession, fortunately, but they haven’t slowed inflation as much as policymakers had hoped.The question is whether Fed officials can cut interest rates at all this year.Joe Biden acknowledged that “prices are still too high for housing and groceries”, and said he was “calling on corporations, including grocery retailers, to use record profits to reduce prices”.What’s the president getting at?Corporate profits reached a record high in the fourth quarter of last year.The easiest explanation for record corporate profits at the same time prices remain elevated is that corporations have enough monopoly power to keep prices high.(Note that many corporations are also shrinking the size of the products you’re buying without lowering their prices – a variant of the same thing.)This is one of the biggest reasons the American public is not yet crediting Biden with a great economy. Most people still aren’t feeling it.In 2023, PepsiCo’s chief financial officer said that even though inflation was dropping, its prices would not be. Pepsi hiked its prices by double digits and announced plans to keep them high in 2024.If Pepsi were challenged by tougher competition, consumers would just buy something cheaper. But PepsiCo’s only major soda competitor is Coca-Cola, which – surprise, surprise – announced similar price hikes at about the same time as Pepsi and has also kept its prices high.The CEO of Coca-Cola claimed that the company had “earned the right” to push price hikes because its sodas are popular. Popular? The only thing that’s popular these days seems to be corporate price gouging.We’re seeing this pattern across much of the economy – especially with groceries. At the end of 2023, Americans were paying at least 30% more for beef, pork and poultry products than they were in 2020.Why? Near-monopoly power. Just four companies now control processing of 80% of beef, nearly 70% of pork, and almost 60% of poultry. So of course it’s easy for them to coordinate price increases.The problem goes well beyond the grocery store. In 75% of US industries, fewer companies now control more of their markets than they did 20 years ago.What should be done?First, antitrust laws must be enforced.Kudos to the Biden administration for enforcing antitrust more aggressively than any administration in the last 40 years. This administration has taken action against alleged price fixing in the meat industry – which has been a problem for decades.The Biden administration has sued to block the merger of Kroger and Albertsons – two giant grocery chains.Kroger operates 2,750 stores in 35 states and the District of Columbia. The company’s 19 brands include Ralphs, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fred Meyer, Food 4 Less, Mariano’s, Pick ’n Save, and Harris Teeter. Albertsons operates 2,273 stores in 34 states. Its 15 brands include Safeway, Jewel-Osco, Vons, Acme and Shaw’s. Together, Kroger and Albertsons employ around 700,000 people.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe Biden administration is suing Amazon for using its dominance to artificially jack up prices, in one of the biggest anti-monopoly lawsuits in a generation.The Biden administration is suing Apple for using its market power to control its apps and prevent other businesses from offering them.The administration successfully sued to block the merger of JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, which would have made consolidation in the airline industry even worse.But given how concentrated American industry has become, there’s still a long way to go. Biden should make his antitrust enforcement against corporate power a centerpiece of his campaign.Second, big corporations must not be allowed to use their power to gouge consumers.Senator Elizabeth Warren and others recently unveiled the latest version of their Price Gouging Prevention Act.“Giant corporations are using supply chain shocks as a cover to excessively raise prices and sometimes charging the same price but shrinking how much consumers actually get,” Warren charges.The bill would empower the Federal Trade Commission (which would also get $1bn in additional funding) and state attorneys general to stop companies from charging “grossly excessive” prices, regardless of where alleged price gouging took place in a supply chain.The legislation would also protect small businesses – those earning less than $100m – from litigation if they had to raise prices in good faith during crises, and require public companies to disclose more about their costs and pricing strategies.I don’t have any illusions that this bill will find its way into law soon. Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, and not all Democrats support it. Meanwhile, Republicans and their business backers are dead set against it – and are eager to blame continued high prices on Biden, not on corporations.But this bill is just as necessary as aggressive antitrust enforcement – and an example of what could and will be done if Democrats sweep the 2024 elections.The record profits of large corporations are coming out of the paychecks of average Americans, who are still struggling to get by.Biden and the Democrats must say this loudly and clearly and tell the public what they are doing – and will do – to stop corporate monopolies and price gouging.
    Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His newest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com More

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      Cookie Monster and Ohio senator make odd allies in shrinkflation complaint

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      The Ohio Democratic senator Sherrod Brown endorsed a key voice in the American public square – Cookie Monster – in a complaint about shrinkflation.“Me hate shrinkflation!” the Sesame Street character posted on social media on Monday, referring to an economic phenomenon Merriam-Webster defines as “the practice of reducing a product’s amount or volume per unit while continuing to offer it at the same price”.“Me cookies are getting smaller,” Cookie Monster added, appending a frowning face emoji.Brown, a leading progressive in the US Senate facing a tough fight for re-election, said: “Me too, Cookie Monster. Big corporations shrink the size of their products without shrinking their prices, all to pay for CEO bonuses. People in my state of Ohio are fed up – they should get all the cookie they pay for.”Cookie Monster’s tweet was not the first from a Sesame Street character to make news in recent weeks. Last month, Elmo, the particularly toddler-friendly red furry muppet, prompted an outpouring of existential dread when he simply asked followers: “How is everybody doing?”Nor was Brown the first prominent Democrat to seize on shrinkflation as a campaign issue. Last month, Joe Biden used a video released on Super Bowl Sunday to say the American public was “tired of being played for suckers” by makers of popular snacks.“Some companies are trying to pull a fast one by shrinking the products little by little and hoping you won’t notice,” the president said.“Sports drinks bottles are smaller, a bag of chips has fewer chips, but they’re still charging just as much. As an ice-cream lover, what makes me the most angry is that ice-cream cartons have actually shrunk in size.”Biden’s love for ice cream is as well known as Cookie Monster’s love for cookies, though both president and puppet have advocated for children to eat healthy foods too.Among some observers, Brown’s agreement with Cookie Monster about the evils of shrinkflation prompted thoughts of another similarity between the senator and the Sesame Street star.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionBoth are known and celebrated for distinctive, gravelly voices.The historian Kevin M Kruse once said Brown sounded “like Tom Waits smoked a carton of Pall Malls and gargled hot asphalt”.Cookie Monster – originally provided by the celebrated puppeteer Frank Oz, now performed by David Rudman – has also been widely compared to Waits. More

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      Biden plans to use cold-war era law in attempt to lower US prices

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      The White House has announced it plans to use a cold-war era law to ease supply chain issues that the administration argues are contributing to higher inflation – a key electoral challenge to Joe Biden’s re-election chances next year as polling consistently suggests voters are not buying his Bidenomics pitch.In a statement, the White House said Biden will use the Defense Production Act to improve the domestic manufacturing of medicines deemed crucial for national security and will convene the first meeting of the president’s supply chain resilience council to announce other measures tied to the production and shipment of goods.“We’re determined to keep working to bring down prices for American consumers and ensure the resilience of our supply chains for the future,” said Lael Brainard, director of the White House national economic council and a co-chair of the new supply chain council, in a separate statement.The Defense Production Act of 1950, which was passed to streamline production during the Korean war, was last used in early 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic to accelerate and expand the availability of ventilators and personal protective equipment.The supply chain council is set to address issues ranging from improved data sharing between government agencies, supplying renewable energy resources and freight logistics.Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, will be co-chair of the council, which includes the heads of cabinet departments, the administration’s council of economic advisers, the US director of national intelligence, the Office of Management and Budget, and other agencies.Monday’s announcement arrived as the US economy appears to be doing well on paper. But the White House has acknowledged that improving economic picture is not shared by consumers, and the administration has explicitly tied the economy to the president by calling it Bidenomics.A recent Economist/YouGov poll found that only 39% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of jobs and the economy. And a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll puts the economy as the most important issue to Americans for the past two years.Even as the pace of inflation has slowed, consumers are shouldering an economic burden they had not experienced in years. Prices have risen as much in the past three years as they had in the previous decade, according to a report by Bloomberg, and it now costs almost $120 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic.According to Bloomberg, groceries and electricity are up 25%, used car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rent roughly 20% since January 2020. Housing affordability is at its worst on record. Auto-loan rates and credit card interest rates are also at a peak.As a result, many Democrats say it is time for Biden to adjust the economic message ahead of the 2024 election.In a statement, the White House said that “robust supply chains are fundamental to a strong economy”.“When supply chains are smooth, prices fall for goods, food, and equipment, putting more money in the pockets of American families, workers, farmers, and entrepreneurs,” the statement added.“Supply chain stress has eased measurably over the past year and the Biden administration’s announcement is another step in the right direction,” the Moody’s economist Jesse Rogers said.Rogers added: “While unlikely to resolve some of the more complex issues plaguing supply chains in one go, measures targeting pharmaceuticals, climate infrastructure, data security and logistics will bolster resilience and get the ball rolling on smart infrastructure and global cooperation.”In addition to domestic production measures, the administration said it will work to strengthen global supply chains internationally, including by developing early warning systems with allies and partners to detect and respond to supply chain disruptions in critical areas.Those include measures “to improve the weather, water, and climate observing capabilities and data-sharing” with countries “needed to produce global climate information and minimize impacts upon infrastructure, water, health, and food security”. More

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      US inflation in August rose to 3.7% amid sharp increase in energy prices

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      US inflation in August rose for the first time since June 2022, rising to 3.7% as a sharp increase in energy prices pushed prices up toward the end of the summer.Growth in prices still remains far below the decades-high inflation rates that were seen last summer, when the rate peaked at 9.1% in June. Still, an increase in inflation means the US economy is further from the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% and will probably make officials consider pushing interest rates up later this year.The price of energy commodities, including gas and oil, jumped up 10.5% over the last month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data, which measures the prices of a basket of goods and services. Gas prices ticked up in August as Russia and Saudi Arabia continued aggressive cuts in supply, bringing the price of crude oil to 10-month high at $91 a barrel. Higher gas prices accounted for more than half of the increase in the overall inflation rate.Meanwhile core inflation, which measures the price of goods and services minus the volatile energy and food industries, actually decreased in August to 4.3%, down from 4.7% in July, reflecting the impact higher energy prices are having on the overall inflation rate.Even with the decrease in core inflation, which has been higher and going down at a slower rate than the 12-month inflation rate, inflation still remains far above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%.Though price decreases have been seen in used cars and medical care services over the last few months, home prices have hit a near-record high in June, keeping core inflation stubbornly high. The median home price hit $413,80, the second-highest price ever, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices cooled slightly to $406,700 in July, but home prices still remain 7.3% higher than a year earlier.Even with inflation slightly up, the Fed is on track to keep interest rates the same at their next board meeting on 20 September. Economists say the Fed has had a pause planned for the meeting for a while as many officials say the economy has yet to feel the full effects of interest rates, which are at a 22-year high at 5.25% to 5.5%.But as the health of the economy continues to be hard to pin down – job growth has remained relatively stable even amid high interest rates, but inflation is still far from 2% – the Fed could still raise interest rates at future meetings. Future interest rate increases could introduce more volatility to the US economy, and potentially trigger a recession, though the Fed’s mission to bring down inflation has yet to bear dramatic consequences.The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said last month that officials were aware of the precarity, saying they will “proceed carefully” as they decide what to do with interest rates. Powell has said the overall decline in inflation has been a “welcome development”, but it still remains high.“We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective,” he said. More

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      Fed announces smallest interest hike in a year as inflation ‘eases somewhat’

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      Fed announces smallest interest hike in a year as inflation ‘eases somewhat’Quarter-point increase to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% signals a slowdown in Fed’s fight against soaring inflation The US Federal Reserve signaled a slowdown in its fight against soaring inflation on Wednesday, announcing its smallest hike in interest rates in almost a year.After its latest meeting, the Fed announced a quarter-point increase in its benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, the smallest increase since March last year. “Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” the Fed said in a statement adding that “ongoing increases” will be appropriate as it seeks to bring prices down.“We covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Even so, we have more work to do,” said Fed chair Jerome Powell.Inflation in the US has been running at levels unseen since the 1980s, triggering a cost of living crisis as the price of everything from eggs to gas and rent has shot up.In order to tamp down inflation the Fed has aggressively hiked rates as it seeks to cool the economy and bring prices back under control.A year ago the Fed rate – which affects the interest rates on everything from business and personal loans to mortgages and credit card rates – was close to zero. After the most rapid series of rises since the 1980s, it is now at a level last seen in 2007.There are signs that prices are coming down. In December, the annual rate of inflation fell to6.5% from 7.1% in the previous month, the sixth straight month of yearly declines and well below the peak of 9.1% it hit in June, its highest rate since 1982.Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – fell 0.2% from November to December. The housing market has slowed and many of the major tech companies have announced large job cuts as they have moved to rein in spending.But inflation remains well above the Fed’s annual target rate of 2% and the central bank has said it will keep rates high until price stability is achieved. The Fed also continues to worry about the jobs market. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in December, a 50-year low and on Wednesday the labor department announced there were 11m job openings in the US in December – almost two available jobs for every person looking for one and an increase from November.The tight labor market has driven up wages and Powell, has made clear that the central bank believes rising wages threaten to spur on inflation – a so-called wage-price spiral. “You don’t see that yet, but the whole point is, once you see it, you have a serious problem. That means that effectively in people’s decision-making, inflation has become a real salient issue,” said Powell. “That is what we can’t allow to happen.”TopicsFederal ReserveUS economyJerome PowellEconomicsUS politicsInflationnewsReuse this content More

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      The US should break up monopolies – not punish working Americans for rising prices | Robert Reich

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      The US should break up monopolies – not punish working Americans for rising pricesRobert ReichThe Fed is putting people out of work to reduce workers’ bargaining power and reduce inflation. They’ve got it all wrong Job growth and wages are slowing. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the labor department reported on Friday – lower than the average in recent months.Average hourly wages rose by 4.6% in December, according to Friday’s report. That’s a slowdown from 4.8% in November.All this is music to the ears of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, because the Fed blames inflation on rising wages. The Fed has been increasing interest rates to slow the economy and thereby reduce the bargaining power of workers to get wage gains.At his press conference on 14 December announcing the Fed’s latest interest rate hike, Powell warned that “the labor market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth elevated”.But aren’t higher wages a good thing?The typical American worker’s wage has been stuck in the mud for four decades.Most of the gains from a more productive economy have been going to the top – to executives and investors. The richest 10% of Americans now own more than 90% of the value of shares of stock owned by Americans.Powell’s solution to inflation is to clobber workers even further. He says “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers”.But if the demand for workers exceeds the supply, isn’t the answer to pay workers more?Not according to Powell and the Fed. Their answer is to continue to raise interest rates to slow the economy and put more people out of work, so workers can’t get higher wages. That way, “supply and demand conditions in the labor market [will] come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures on wages and prices,” says Powell.Putting people out of work is the Fed’s means of reducing workers’ bargaining power and the “upward pressures on wages and prices”.The Fed projects that as it continues to increase interest rates, unemployment will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2023 – resulting in more than 1m job losses.But fighting inflation by putting more people out of work is cruel, especially when America’s safety nets – including unemployment insurance – are in tatters.As we saw at the start of the pandemic, because the US doesn’t have a single nationwide system for getting cash to jobless workers, they have to depend on state unemployment insurance, which varies considerably from state to state.Many fall through the cracks. When the pandemic began, fewer than 30% of jobless Americans qualified for unemployment benefits.The problem isn’t that wages are rising. The real problem is that corporations have the power to pass those wage increases – along with record profit margins – on to consumers in the form of higher prices.If corporations had to compete vigorously for consumers, they wouldn’t be able to do this. Competitors would charge lower prices and grab those consumers away.Corporations aren’t even plowing their extra profits into new investments that would generate higher productivity in the future. They’re buying back their shares to boost stock prices. Through the end of 2022, American firms announced stock buybacks exceeding $1tn.A rational response to inflation, therefore, would not increase unemployment in order to reduce the bargaining power of workers to get higher wages.It would be to reduce the pricing power of corporations to pass those costs along to consumers along with rising profit margins, by making markets more competitive.Corporate pricing power is out of control because corporations face so little competition.Worried about sky-high airline fares and lousy service? That’s largely because airlines have merged from 12 carriers in 1980 to four today.Concerned about drug prices? A handful of drug companies control the pharmaceutical industry.Upset about food costs? Four giants now control over 80% of meat processing, 66% of the pork market, and 54% of the poultry market.Worried about grocery prices? Albertsons bought Safeway and now Kroger is buying Albertsons. Combined, they would control almost 22% of the US grocery market. Add in Walmart, and the three brands would control 70% of the grocery market in 167 cities across the country.And so on. The evidence of corporate concentration is everywhere.It’s getting worse. There were over a thousand major corporate mergers or acquisitions last year. Each had a merger value of $100m or more. The total transaction value was $1.4tn.The government must stop putting the responsibility for fighting inflation on working people whose wages have gone nowhere for four decades.Put the responsibility where it belongs – on big corporations with power to raise their prices.One possibility: any large corporation in an industry dominated by five or fewer giant corporations that raises its prices more than the Fed’s target of 2% should be presumed to have monopoly power, and slammed with an antitrust lawsuit.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
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      We need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tatters

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      AnalysisWe need serious public policy, not more printed money – the US economy is in tattersDoug HenwoodDecades of bailouts have convinced some that the Fed will always come to the rescue – but this only papers over the fundamental flaws of the US economy With the Federal Reserve leading the world’s central banks in a tightening cycle of interest rate rises, the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2006, commentators across the political spectrum are noting the fondness of the Fed chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, for his legendary predecessor, Paul Volcker. On the left, the comparison is fearful; on the center and on the right, it’s one of admiration. But circumstances don’t really support the comparison.Fed announces sixth consecutive hike in US interest rates to fight inflationRead moreOn taking office in October 1979, Volcker declared “the standard of living of the average American has to decline” as a consequence of the war against the chronic inflation of the 1970s. He quickly set to work making that happen by driving interest rates up towards 20% and creating the deepest US recession since the 1930s.That squeeze did put an end to high inflation but at a tremendous social cost. Six million people lost their jobs over the next three years, taking the unemployment rate from 6% to almost 11% in late 1982. The cost wasn’t merely short-term. About half of those job losses were categorized as permanent, as opposed to being temporary layoffs, many of them in the manufacturing heartland. The term “rust belt” entered common usage.Volcker was appointed by Jimmy Carter, who seemed to have no idea of what he was getting himself into. His friend and adviser, the Georgia banker Bert Lance, prophetically warned him that he was dooming his prospects in the 1980s election. But Carter listened to the consensus of Wall Street and the political class – Volcker was the man to tame inflation, which was running around 13% at the end of 1979. The US had seen inflation rates that high before, but never outside of major wars or their immediate aftermath. Inflation, which was under 2% in 1965, had been rising relentlessly for 15 years, barely pausing even in the nasty recession of the mid-1970s. Contrary to a belief popular on the left, that inflation was not kind to workers. Wages badly lagged prices, and real average hourly earnings fell 14% between 1973 and 1980.There are some similarities between the present and 40 years ago. Then, as now, food and energy prices were important factors in sparking inflation, but in both cases, even if you strip out those two volatile components, a severe inflation remains. And in both cases, polls have shown inflation to be deeply unpopular.But there are also major differences, notably in the strength of labor. At the end of the 1970s, almost a quarter of all workers were unionized; now only about a tenth are. Then, an average of 22,000 workdays were lost to strikes every year; last year it was just 1,500 – a decline of 93%. The early 1980s recession hammered the bargaining power of the working class. Unions were busted, and we went from a time when Take This Job and Shove It could be a hit song (as it was in 1977) to one where workers were grateful to have any job at all, no matter how tenuous and low-paying. As the recession ended in late 1982, the stock market took off and the employer class began a 40-year celebration of its triumph.That’s not the world Powell finds himself in. Inflation has been a problem for close to 15 months rather than 15 years, and although there are some tentative signs of life in the labor movement – notably at one Amazon site and a few hundred Starbucks outlets (out of 9,000) – the share of the labor force represented by unions fell last year, and strike activity so far in 2022 is about a third lower than in 2021. Unlike the inflation of the 1970s, this is not the wage-push kind (to use the jargon). It’s been driven first by supply chain blockages, thanks to Covid, and extended by embargoes against Russian energy exports, and most workers are just looking on helplessly as their paychecks fail to keep up with price increases.There’s another difference as well: we’re coming off a decade of extremely indulgent monetary policy. Coming out of the Great Recession, the Fed kept short-term interest rates near zero between 2011 and 2021, with the brief exception when they pushed them up to just over 2% in 2017 and 2018 (still quite low by historical standards). On top of that, the central bank pumped over $3tn (£2.7tn) into the financial markets between 2008 and 2015, and almost $5tn between early 2020 and early 2022. The earlier pumping was meant to prevent a financial implosion after the sub-prime crisis, and the latter to counter the threats of the early pandemic months. But the result of both has been to stimulate crazy inflation in asset prices – stocks, crypto, unicorns, housing – a remarkable waste of capital and one that can be very risky to deflate. Decades of bailouts have convinced financial market players that the Fed will always come in to rescue them and reversing that mentality could require a Volckerish austerity for Wall Street – one that’s politically hard to imagine.The Fed’s interest rate hikes are going to hit the most vulnerable | Dean BakerRead moreWhat Powell is up to now bears almost no resemblance to Volcker’s clampdown. The federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend each other money overnight – that is the Fed’s most direct policy target – changed from just above 0% to just under 4% after raising the target rate another 0.75 points this week. That’s almost 15 points below the Volcker peak. In real terms – deducting the rate of inflation – Volcker’s peak was almost 10%, a lot higher. Right now, the real fed funds rate is around -4% (yes, that’s a negative sign). Powell may admire Volcker, but next to him, he’s a piker.The debate over monetary policy overlooks a more important issue. That decade of cheap money papered over a lot of fundamental problems with the US economy: low levels of public and private investment, massive polarization between rich and poor and unstable employment for much of the labor force. These should be addressed with serious public policy, not by printing money. It would be nice if we talked about that, but given the degraded state of American political discourse, I’m not hopeful.
      Doug Henwood is an economic journalist based in Brooklyn. His radio show, Behind the News, airs on KPFA radio in Berkeley, and is available on all the standard podcast outlets
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      Don’t blame Joe Biden for high inflation | Steven Greenhouse

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      Don’t blame Joe Biden for high inflationSteven GreenhouseFor any American who is thinking of voting Republican out of anger about inflation, here’s some advice: look before you leap Voters are angry. America’s 8.2% inflation rate sucks and has taken a big bite out of their paycheck. And $4-a-gallon gas hurts, too.Democrats need to address economic fears now – or risk losing their majorities | Robert ReichRead moreMany Americans are angry and blame Joe Biden for today’s high inflation. Indeed, polls show that many people plan to vote for Republicans in November because they’re upset with Biden over the economy. (Unfortunately, many Americans forget that there’s been more job growth – 10 million jobs – during Biden’s first 20 months in office than during any previous president’s first 20 months.)For any American who is thinking of voting Republican out of anger about inflation, here’s some advice: look before you leap. Republicans won’t do anything more than Biden has done to slow inflation. Indeed, they’ll probably do less. Despite the flood of GOP ads attacking Biden over inflation, Republicans haven’t put forward any proposals about how they would slow inflation. They talk of their plan to make Trump’s tax cuts permanent for the rich and big corporations, but that won’t do anything to reduce inflation. (By the way, inflation has been higher in many other countries – in Britain, it’s 8.8%, and in Germany, it’s 10.0% – so it’s ridiculous to suggest inflation is all Joe Biden’s fault.)There’s another reason voters should look before they leap. Republican lawmakers actually support several policies that will increase inflation. Republicans have vowed to repeal the Biden-backed law that lets Medicare negotiate lower prescription drug prices, a law that will reduce inflation for nearly 63 million Americans on Medicare. Congressional Republicans were so eager to help big pharma instead of inflation-battered Americans that they blocked Biden from setting a $35-a-month price cap on insulin. That means higher prices – and inflation – for Americans with diabetes. Republicans are also intent on repealing Obamacare, which would push up healthcare prices for many Americans.Republicans have vowed to take numerous other steps that would make it harder for tens of millions of Americans to cope with inflation. Republicans are threatening to create a debt ceiling crisis to shut down the government unless Biden surrenders to GOP demands to cut social security and Medicare. Many Republicans say social security and Medicare are far too generous, and their plans to cut those programs will further squeeze millions of older Americans who are already badly squeezed by inflation.Republicans are also pushing an idea that will make it harder for millions of young Americans to deal with inflation. Through lawsuits and other means, GOP lawmakers to pushing to overturn Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, which will forgive $10,000 or $20,000 in student debt for 40 million Americans. Not only that, Republicans have hurt many parents’ ability to cope with inflation by blocking Biden’s plan to expand childcare subsidies for families with young children.Biden has also taken on the oil industry giants, calling on them to roll back gasoline prices as they make obscenely high profits, even as inflation pummels consumers. It’s hard to imagine that Republicans, with their big donations from big oil, would criticize their fossil fuel friends about their exorbitant profits.Many angry voters will argue that we should of course blame Biden for today’s inflation because, as Harry Truman said, “the buck stops here,” meaning the Oval Office. But let’s be honest, Biden is hardly to blame for inflation. Despite what Republicans say, if any president should be blamed for high inflation, it’s President Putin. Putin’s war against Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter, has pushed up prices for wheat and many other foods worldwide. Putin’s war has also caused oil and gas prices to soar.The pandemic has caused huge supply chain disruptions that are a second big factor behind inflation. China has locked down thousands of factories, causing shortages of furniture, appliances and many other products, and that has pushed up prices. China’s lockdowns have caused a severe shortage of computer chips that American automakers rely on – that has reduced car production and jacked up auto prices. These supply chain problems aren’t Biden’s fault.There’s a third major, often unappreciated factor fueling inflation: many US corporations have exploited the inflationary environment by aggressively increasing their prices and profit margins. Exxon’s second-quarter profits soared to $17.9bn, more than triple what it earned in last year’s second quarter, while Chevron’s earnings also more than tripled, to $11.6bn. The Economic Policy Institute, a progressive thinktank, found that roughly 40% of the recent inflation in the US can be attributed to fatter corporate profit margins. Maybe Republican TV ads should be attacking corporate greed rather than Joe Biden.I’m not saying Biden is blameless. Like Donald Trump, he sponsored a badly needed program of checks to US households to help Americans get through the pandemic. Those checks increased consumer demand and pushed up prices somewhat, but not nearly as much as Putin’s war against Ukraine, supply chain disruptions or corporations fattening their profit margins.Americans who plan to vote Republican because they’re angry about inflation are deluding themselves if they think Republicans will do anything to reduce inflation. For the past four decades, the Republican party’s economic policy has focused on one thing and one thing alone: cutting taxes on corporations and the wealthy. If you care about cutting taxes on the rich, then vote Republican, but if you seriously care about fighting inflation, Republicans will do zilch about that – other than saying you should blame Biden and the Democrats.People who vote Republican out of anger about inflation could end up hurting themselves economically. With Republicans in power, there will be cuts in social security and Medicare, higher drug prices, higher healthcare prices, no student loan forgiveness, and less government aid for childcare. Moreover, Republicans oppose increasing the minimum wage and want to weaken labor unions.With the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates, inflation will no doubt be tamed in a year or two, regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats are in power. But with many Republican candidates indicating that they won’t honor election results – and majority rule – if Democrats win, our democracy could be fatally weakened if Republicans prevail in November. High inflation will be gone in a year or two, but if we lose our democracy, we won’t get it back anytime soon.
      Steven Greenhouse, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, is a longtime American labor and workplace journalist and writer. He is author of Beaten Down, Worked Up: The Past, Present, and Future of American Labor
      TopicsUS politicsOpinionInflationJoe BidencommentReuse this content More

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      Democrats need to address economic fears now – or risk losing their majorities | Robert Reich

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      Democrats need to address economic fears now – or risk losing their majorities Robert ReichUntil Democrats tell it like it is, their electoral majorities will continue to be fragile A milder version of Liz Truss’s economically induced vanishing act may be occurring on this side of the Atlantic.Despite the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive campaign in generations to slow the economy and bring price increases under control, prices continue to climb.This could have severe political consequences for Democrats in the midterm elections in a little over two weeks. The economy is the most important issue on voters’ minds.Prices rose at a brutally rapid pace in September, with a key inflation index increasing at the fastest rate in 40 years. For this reason, investors expect the Fed to announce another rate increase at the end of its next meeting on 2 November, just six days before election day.Republicans are focusing on inflation because voters see it as their biggest immediate problem, and it’s easy to pin blame on the Democrats because they’re in charge.But the Biden administration and the Democrats aren’t responsible.Inflation is worldwide. It’s being propelled by continuing global supply shocks – including Putin’s war in Ukraine and China’s Covid lockdowns – which are contributing to shortages of energy, food and hi-tech components.The shortages are coming just at a time when consumer demand is soaring in the wake of what is hopefully the end of the worst of Covid.Inflation in the United States is also being caused by corporations raising their prices faster than their costs to fatten their profit margins.The evidence of this is now all around us. Corporate profit margins are at record highs.“The companies who set prices are really reluctant to stop increasing them,” says Jeanna Smialek, who writes about the Fed for the New York Times. “What we saw was that corporations were actually pocketing quite a bit more profit off this …. They’re still putting up prices very rapidly, even in instances where their own costs are starting to fall.”Corporate profits continue to climb even as consumers are taking it on the chin. It’s a giant redistribution from consumers to corporations.This would seem to be a natural issue for Democrats to be sounding off about.The Fed’s rate hikes aren’t working because they’re based on the anachronistic idea that slowing consumer demand automatically causes prices to fall or to climb more slowly.But with global shortages of supplies, and monopolistic corporations raising prices to preserve or enlarge their profits, the Fed would have to raise interest rates far higher before having the desired effect. The Fed would very likely bring the economy to a crawl, by which time the human cost will be overwhelming.Better to wait out the global supply shocks and deal with corporate power with a temporary windfall profits tax and more vigorous antitrust enforcement.Why aren’t Biden and the Democrats hammering away with this message?Nine months ago, the White House’s National Economic Council was putting out research papers on the relationship between corporate power and inflation, but then abruptly stopped.The reason was conventional economists claimed the theory didn’t hold water. They argued that monopolistic corporations would have exercised their pricing power all along, not just during this burst of inflation.That conventional view is being proven wrong. Corporations have been more willing to exercise monopoly power over the past year because inflation has given them cover to do so. While telling retailers and consumers they have no choice but to raise prices because their own costs are rising, they’ve been raising prices higher than their rising costs in order to expand their profit margins.Another reason the White House stopped blaming inflation on big corporations is that the corporate funders of Democrats have made it clear they don’t want the White House or Democratic candidates to blame this inflation on them.That’s a pity, because until Democrats tell it like it is – and talk accurately and clearly about such abuses of corporate power – their electoral majorities will continue to be fragile. And they’ll never get the political mandate they need to take on corporate power as directly and forcefully as it must be taken on.And in two weeks, they may lose control over Congress.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
      TopicsInflationOpinionUS politicsDemocratsUS midterm elections 2022US economycommentReuse this content More