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      For the love of cars: will steep gas prices stall Democrats’ midterm hopes?

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      For the love of cars: will steep gas prices stall Democrats’ midterm hopes? Economy in focus: America has a love affair with cars – but soaring prices are causing a rift. In the midwest, Adam Gabbatt asks voters what they thinkThe Henry Ford museum, in Dearborn, Michigan, is a tribute to America’s obsession with the motor vehicle.The sprawling complex, set across 12 acres, is home to early examples of the Ford Model T, the mass-produced, affordable vehicle that set the US on the path of a car-dominant culture, as well as other era-defining vehicles right up to today.US midterms 2022: the key racesRead moreWalking past these cars, it is possible to trace the history of the car in the US. With the occasional exception, that history has been: let’s make more cars, and let’s make them gigantic. The tiny Model T – early versions were about 11ft long – was replaced by cars like the Chevrolet Bel Air in the 1950s, and the Cadillac Coupe deVille of the 1960s, leading to the gigantic trucks and SUVs that are bestsellers in the US today.With gas prices recently soaring, however, many Americans are now suffering as a result of that thirst for size. It’s a problem for people across the country, and with key midterm elections looming next month, the historic spike in the cost of fuel will be one of the issues that determines how the US votes.Republicans have hammered Joe Biden and the Democratic party over the increase, despite the cost being tied to issues, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that are largely outside the government’s control. Prices have slowly declined in recent months, but news that Opec+, the global oil production cartel, will reduce daily production by 2m barrels, has rocked the Biden administration, weeks before the vote.That has provided Republicans with another opening to attack Democrats over gas prices, inflation and general cost of living. But outside the Henry Ford museum, the more than $120m the party has spent on ads related to inflation mostly didn’t seem to have had an impact – so far.“I truly believe that some of the higher prices that we’re paying right now is the price of freedom. I mean, you know, you don’t want to give in to all the dictators all over the world and you want to live in a free world, you have to make some compromises,” said Louis Sommer.“I’m willing to pay $6 a gallon or $10 a gallon if that’s what it takes to live in a free world.”Sommer, 39, drives a Ford Edge, which averages 22mpg, and also has an old Ford pickup truck, which guzzles about 14mpg. With prices hovering at just over $4 a gallon in this part of Michigan, those cars cost a lot of money to run.Despite not classifying himself as a Democrat – “If I would vote right now, I would probably vote Libertarian,” Sommer said – he supports Biden’s efforts on foreign policy, and had not been swayed by the Republican rhetoric. As for driving, Sommer, who works in the auto industry, said he had considered buying an electric car, but believes they are too expensive.“An electric car, as a second car, would make a lot of sense,” he said.“But right now, the electric cars are $50,000-$60,000. For a second car, it should be more like, you know, $20,000-$30,000. And you know, the infrastructure is not there in the neighborhood that I’m living in.”Gas prices in the US peaked, according to the Energy Information Administration, in June 2022, at an average of about $5 a gallon, compared with $2.42 in January 2021. Costs surged first as people returned to the roads post-Covid, and then again after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. By this September, prices had dropped to an average nationwide of $3.77, but the Opec+ news has not been kind: in the past two weeks prices have risen again to almost $4 a gallon.In a country where, outside a handful of cities, there is hardly a thriving public transit system, the cost of gas has always been a key issue, and a uniquely visible one: with prices displayed in neon letters at every gas station, to go for a drive is to witness multiple adverts for inflation.The increases are also more noticeable than the parallel spikes the country is experiencing with groceries as most people pay for gas on its own, rather than bundling it with other items.In Ohio, south of Michigan, the higher prices are being keenly felt, particularly in smaller, rural towns where grocery stores and doctor’s offices are frequently a long drive away.Ohio’s economy boomed through coal, oil and iron ore mining before the state switched to manufacturing cars, rubber and steel in the mid-1900s. By the 1980s those trades had moved abroad, and like much of the midwest, Ohio has suffered from a lack of well-paying jobs.In the town of Bucryus, which is ​​home to the annual Bucyrus bratwurst festival, and calls itself the bratwurst capital of America, gas was selling at $3.95 a gallon in early October, and local people are being forced to adapt.“I’ve been doing less traveling and just generally doing less stuff,” said Ned Ohl, who works at the Crazy Fox Saloon. “Everything just takes a little more money than I would have normally spent.”Ohl, 33, is a history buff, and had planned a trip this summer to the Waverly Hills sanatorium, a Tudor gothic former tuberculosis hospital in Louisville, Kentucky. He postponed the trip indefinitely as he couldn’t afford the gas.As for who is to blame, Ohl said: “I try not to get into the politics of it.”Kim King, who was in the bar celebrating the finalization of her divorce, said she had also been affected.“Nobody’s traveling,” King said. “I drive my daughter to volleyball and softball, but I don’t do anything outside of that. I’m not about to take a road trip anywhere.”Bucryus was among the towns to benefit from the rise of the motor vehicle. For decades Route 30, which runs across the US from New York City to San Francisco, ran right through the center of Bucyrus, and the town had a boom period during the prohibition era, when bootleggers used underground tunnels to hide and transport their wares. A speakeasy bar underneath the Crazy Fox Saloon, allegedly frequented by Al Capone, still exists today, but only as a little-visited tourist attraction.There was no sign of mob activity in the Crazy Fox, where bar patron Mike, who declined to give his last name, was more than happy to link gas prices to politics.“It went up right after that dumb-ass president stopped the pipeline,” Mike said. He was referring to Biden, and the planned Keystone XL pipeline, which would have carried oil from Canada to Texas. Biden revoked the permit for the pipeline on his first day in office. Politifact and other factcheckers have found no connection between the cancellation of the pipeline and the increase in gas prices.Nevertheless, Mike, who manages a hotel next to the Crazy Fox Saloon, was set in his opinion: “I think we could have put a puppet in and done a better job,”Mike said his car use had been affected.“​​I don’t go anywhere other than to the grocery store,” he said.“I go to Marion [a town 20 miles south of Bucyrus] once every other week to pick up my son; other than that it costs too damn much to run a vehicle right now.”Mike said his son stays with him every other weekend. They used to take trips out to Lake Erie, but: “You can’t do that any more.”Americans tend to drive larger cars than people in other countries do. So far in 2022 the three top-selling vehicles in the US are all pickup trucks – the Ford F-Series takes top spot – and the majority of the rest are SUVs. The bestselling car in the UK is the Vauxhall Corsa, a compact car that is four feet shorter than the smallest of Ford’s F-Series vehicles. The bestselling cars in France, Italy and Germany are all tiny compared with American vehicles.Bigger cars need bigger engines, and more fuel. The Corsa, according to its stats, will average 45.6mpg in the city. The most economical of the Ford F-Series vehicles will burn through 25mpg.It wasn’t always the case. The Henry Ford museum documents a move in the US toward smaller cars in the 1970s, triggered in part by spikes in gas prices, while the New York Times reported in 1973 that the rush “toward smaller, less extravagant cars” had left Ford, Chrysler and GM scrambling to switch up assembly lines.The museum also offers a glimpse into a time when the government was more willing to clamp down on car use.In 1974 Richard Nixon signed into law a 55mph speed limit on all national highways, after Opec caused a gas price spike when it stopped shipping oil to the US. The new speed limit was designed to conserve gas. Thirty years earlier, during the second world war, the US had introduced another effort to encourage people to carpool to save fuel for the war effort, with one public awareness poster in the Henry Ford museum telling Americans: “When you ride ALONE you ride with Hitler!”Driving south-east into Ohio – and not with Hitler – the flat, open landscape gave way to thick woods and rolling hills, marking the beginnings of the Appalachian mountains. This part of the state is not doing well financially. The small rural towns that dot Morgan county are pockmarked by closed storefronts and buildings with flaking paint. After decades of decline, as industry left, frequently the only businesses still active are car-related: repair shops, gas stations and the occasional car dealership.That the auto industry is the only thriving trade speaks to the reliance people here have on their cars. There’s no public transport, and frequently people have to drive miles to stores like Family Dollar, Dollar General or Kroger for groceries or essentials.In Stockport, a town of about 500 people on the Muskingum River, CJ’s Family Restaurant is one of the most popular eateries. Carolyn Schramm, 78, has owned the restaurant, which offers diner-style breakfasts and coffee, and more substantial dinner options such as an $8.25 sirloin steak and $6.80 spaghetti with meat sauce, for 35 years.The price of food has gone up this year, and with the rise in gas prices so has the price of traveling to buy supplies.“I need to put prices up,” Schramm said. “But I haven’t done it yet.”It’s difficult in a restaurant where Schramm said “customers become your family”. Some people come to CJ’s two or three times a day to eat, and in a town where the median household income is $34,338 – that figure for the US as a whole is $67,521 – many people are not flush with cash.“There’s one couple I know they say they have to be careful how much they come.”Schramm was wearing a T-shirt that said “Proud grandma of a 2020 senior”, in recognition of her granddaughter, who graduated from Morgan high school two years ago. She said gas prices had “made a big difference” for her children and grandchildren, who all live an hour’s drive away.“So far they haven’t had to come less; fortunately my kids have pretty good jobs, but you never know from one day to the next,” she said.Despite the spike, it won’t affect how, or whether, Schramm votes in November. She doesn’t blame the government for the increase, but said: “I don’t get in much on politics because frankly I think they’re all crooks.”The road from Stockport to the Pennsylvania border is quite wiggly, the rapid ascending and descending placing stress on both vehicle and stomach. Washington, a town of 13,000 people that lies 10 miles across the border, had the cheapest gas prices yet, with Sam’s Club offering it at $3.71 a gallon.On one of Washington’s main streets Tyler Weller, 21, had just finished work. He works as a traffic controller at a construction site, and is able to walk to work, but he knows a lot of people who have struggled more to cope with gas prices.“We don’t have a lot of public transport in this town, it’s kinda small. So some of my friends have been borrowing money just to drive to work,” he said. “The grocery store, you can push it off or whatever, but you have to get to work.”Weller said he is thankful he gets paid weekly – he earns $15 an hour – as he hasn’t had to worry as much about filling up his car. But he has still had to make sacrifices.“Usually I just like driving around, like a decompression ride,” he said. “I’ve had to drop those.”Others, like Weller, drive to relax, and it could be that there are impacts on people’s mental health as they are unable to turn to traditional forms of release. Weller said while he had noticed prices had gone down, they weren’t low enough for him to run his car the way he used to. And at the Luxury Box restaurant in Washington, a woman who gave her name as Kath said people celebrating cheaper gas have a short memory.“I think people are naive when they see the prices drop – they get excited, and that’s not exactly where they should be – even though it’s a little better on our wallets,” Kath said.“They notice the prices are better, they think they’re saving money, but in actuality we’re not, compared to where we were when it used to be $2.50-something.”Kath believed Biden and the Democrats could have done more to prevent the increase in prices, although she didn’t have specifics.“I think there’s a lot behind the scenes that we don’t know,” she said.As for how she was faring financially, Kath echoed a sense of hopelessness that others had exhibited across Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.“It’s just not the gas prices. At this point it’s the whole economy. Our food prices are outrageous. There are increases on everything – other than how much you get paid,” Kath said.“I make very decent money for myself, but I feel like I’m now making minimum wage, and I haven’t felt like that in years.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022GasInflationAutomotive industryJoe BidenUS economyUS politicsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Can Latino voters help Democrats hold Arizona in crucial Senate race?

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      Can Latino voters help Democrats hold Arizona in crucial Senate race? The economy with high inflation is a major issue for voters, but Latinos are not a monolithic bloc and shifted slightly right in 2020, a factor that could decide the race this timeIn her back pocket Ana Diaz carries a smooth grey pebble she calls her “knock knocker”. She uses it to get a loud rap on the front doors of the South Phoenix neighborhood where she is canvassing for the Democrats ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.It’s 110F (43C) in the early afternoon sun and Diaz is aiming to knock on 80 doors in this largely Latino neighborhood and speak to at least 20 people, encouraging them to vote. Diaz, a Los Angeles-based bartender and Unite Here union member, is a familiar face to many in this working-class area. In her T-shirt that reads WORKER POWER she has been knocking on these doors since 2018.Voters are all talking about the economy. Diaz too worries about inflation, her grocery bill is so high she thinks she may have to stop buying beef. But, for her, the Democrats and good union jobs are the answer. “When we get together, we can make them change,” she said.“Donald Trump called us ‘the crazies.’ Well we kicked him out,” she said as we walked the block, chugging water and looking for shade. Not many people were in. Diaz and her colleagues will be back. “We’re not going to stop,” she said.Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona in the 2020 election, beating Trump with 49.4% of the vote to Trump’s 49.1%. As in neighboring Nevada, campaigners like Diaz who got out the Latino vote were crucial to that victory. It’s going to take every vote this time too for the Democrats to hold the state – where a crucial Senate seat is up for grabs and with it control of Congress.But Democrats enter election season with two major handicaps: the incumbent party historically loses seats in the midterms and the economy – the top issue for voters – is a mess.For the first time since 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in a landslide, inflation is a major electoral issue. For decades the specter of inflation had seemed vanquished – hovering around 2% in the US. Now the shadow of soaring prices hangs over everything. In Phoenix the inflation rate hit an annual rate of 13% in August, a record for any US city in data going back 20 years. The national average is 8.3%.chartHistory tells us that the economy is usually the deciding factor in US elections. But whose economy? If there is one word that economists are using to describe the current state of the US economy, it is “weird”. Inflation is at a 40-year high and yet unemployment is at a 50-year low. There were more than 10m job openings in July in the US, over one and half jobs for every person currently looking for work. Interest rates are rising sharply, the once white-hot housing market looks like it could fall, loan rates are rising, and yet consumers are still spending.Phoenix maps all the contradictory signals the economy is sending. The city’s long economic boom continues. About 200 new residents have moved there every day in recent years, attracted by a lower cost of living and by businesses moving for less regulation and lower taxes. It’s not enough. The construction industry alone needs to add 265,000 qualified workers. Healthcare, financial services, all are struggling to fill vacancies.That pressure cooker environment has led to soaring rents in the city – up 46% over the year – but still lower than many other US cities. The situation is particularly hard for lower wage workers and long-term residents now competing with more moneyed migrants from nearby California and elsewhere. For many, wages are failing to keep up with the cost of living crisis as inflation pushes up the price of everything from gas and food to construction costs.“As cross currents buffet the Arizona economy, it looks different depending on the lens used to view it,” University of Arizona professor George Hammond wrote in his latest report on the state of the state. Hammond is expecting slower growth in 2022 and 2023, which could help with costs but also cost people their jobs. Over the long term, he expects Arizona’s economy will still outpace the rest of the country.Diaz believes the Democrats are best placed to navigate these strange seas. “People are like ‘I really don’t care who gets in.’ But you should. Your streets need cleaning, you have no lights, your alleys are full of trash, we have a problem with homelessness. If we don’t choose the right people to snake these changes, it’s not going to happen,” she says.In Scottsdale, Phoenix’s affluent neighbor that is rapidly being absorbed by Phoenix’s sprawl, others have different views. “Biden is a nut,” says Jim Baumann, 60, shopping in Whole Food in his orange Harley Davidson T-shirt. “He screwed this up.” The retiree’s grocery bill now averages $300 to $350 a month he says, up from $200 before inflation bit. “I didn’t like Trump’s mouth but he was better than Biden.”Like so many other issues in the US, views on the economy are fractured, filtered by political and personal views and not always in line with today’s party doctrine.Immigration is a major issue for Republicans, and one that has big economic consequences in the area. Kari Lake, the Trump-backed candidate for governor, has said the Central American migrants now entering the US “could be terrorists, they could be murderers and they are most likely hardcore criminals”. Blake Masters, running for Senate, has accused Democrats of being pro-immigration to “change the demographics of our country”. Privately some local, Republican-leaning, business leaders are embarrassed by the rhetoric and see immigration reform as essential to solving their worker shortages. At the same time Latino voters are not a monolithic bloc and shifted slightly right in 2020, a factor that could decide the race this time.Then there is abortion. Few decisions have greater economic consequences than the decision whether or not to have a child. In recent elections Republicans have paid the price for the supreme court’s decision to end the constitutional protection of abortion even in deep red states like Kansas. Last month an Arizona judge revived a highly restrictive law, that dates back to 1864, banning almost all abortions. Polls show the majority of Arizonans (Republicans and independents included) are in favor of keeping abortion legal in the state in most cases.All this complexity is exacerbated by the weirding of the economy. “Strange would be an understatement,” said Greg Ayres, president of Corbins and chief operating officer of Nox Group, construction companies that specialise in water and waste management, data centers and work for the semi conductor industry.Prices have soared for the construction industry, talent is in short supply, wages are rising and pandemic-related supply chain issues are still rippling through and causing delays. “Everything is so volatile,” he said. “Almost every project is over budget.” And yet business is good. His biggest immediate issue is finding enough people for all the projects he has on the go.The company employs 750 people at present, up from 650 before the pandemic. He wouldd like to be at 1,000 within the year. “But it’s really competitive,” Ayres said.To attract workers Corbin has upped its training programs, benefits and wages. Across the street from his office is a cavernous gym, recreation and health center with a full-time trainer on staff, added to attract and retain talent. Salaries are rising too. With overtime, Ayres said, a mid-twenties journeyman could make over $104,000 a year. The company will train up as many competent workers as it can get its hands on, he says.It’s the same story across the Valley of the Sun, said Todd Sanders, president of business lobby group the Greater Phoenix Chamber in 2009. “It’s almost like we are defying the laws of physics,” he said. The area is suffering from high inflation like the rest of the county but companies are still moving there in large numbers, he said. “By and large we are seeing an economy that is still very strong. It’s an interesting time.”For some low-wage workers buffeted by these economic riptides “interesting” doesn’t even begin to describe it.People know Jarvis Johnson in Phoenix. He went viral for his high-octane audition on reality show So You Think You Can Dance and again for his dedication to Black Friday bargain shopping. His friends describe him as a “ball of energy” and an “eternal optimist”. But when I caught up with him between jobs he seemed tired. It’s not surprising.Johnson, 32, has been working three jobs in order to support his wife and his three young children. His day starts at 3.30am at a Covid testing center, at 11am he starts his shift at a senior living center. Often he isn’t home before at 8pm. He also puts in shifts at a local gas station and is hoping to increase his hours there now that the Covid work is tapering off.All of the jobs pay better than Arizona’s minimum wage of $12,80 an hour. The testing job paid $25 an hour during the worst of the pandemic and at one point Johnson was working there 40 hours a week. But even then, his wages were barely keeping up with the cost of living.Two years ago when he moved into his apartment, he was paying $960 a month in rent. Now it’s close to $1,500. Gas prices have fallen in Arizona, as they have across the US, but are still about $4.90 a gallon, up from just over $3 a year ago. The couple have two cars and it costs $160 to fill them. Food is more expensive. His wife could go to work but daycare costs would wipe out her wages. “It’s crazy. Everything has got more expensive,” he said.“It’s hard. It’s hard right now. I’m just trying to keep my head up and not let my kids see I’m struggling,” he said. “I have to work my butt off to make it. I’m getting by but it’s still not enough.”Biden has promised a fairer, more equitable economy. His administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act which will increase taxes on the US’s largest companies and cut prescription drug prices. He’s also pouring money into solar energy and silicon chip production – both of which will benefit Arizonans. But will it be enough to persuade voters he really has a plan to steer them through this strange economic landscape?Johnson says he will vote Democrat but he doesn’t believe either party has the solution. “They can’t do nothing for me, these employers, they need to pay their people,” he says. “People are struggling.”He wants to start his own business, a hot dog food truck. “I think I’d make more money working for myself, to be honest,” he said. At the moment he has about $1,000 saved but it’s not enough and he’s worried that an incident, a broken car or worse, could wipe out his savings. “Anything can happen,” he said.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022ArizonaUS politicsUS economyInflationEconomicsJoe BidenfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Corporate greed, not wages, is behind inflation. It’s time for price controls | Robert Reich

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      Corporate greed, not wages, is behind inflation. It’s time for price controlsRobert ReichCorporations are using rising costs as an excuse to increase their prices even higher, resulting in record profits. We need limited price controls to break this cycle On Wednesday, policymakers at the Federal Reserve – America’s central bank – continued their battle against inflation with a third straight supersize interest-rate increase. And they warned that they’re not done. They’ll continue to raise borrowing costs until inflation is tamed.They assume that the underlying economic problem is a tight labor market, causing wages to rise – and prices to rise in response. And they believe interest rate increases are necessary to slow this wage-price inflation.This is dead wrong.Wage increases have not even kept up with inflation. Most workers’ paychecks are shrinking in terms of real purchasing power. Rather than causing inflation, wages are actually reducing inflationary pressures.The underlying economic problem is profit-price inflation. It’s caused by corporations raising their prices above their increasing costs.Corporations are using those increasing costs – of materials, components and labor – as excuses to increase their prices even higher, resulting in bigger profits. This is why corporate profits are close to levels not seen in over half a century.Corporations have the power to raise prices without losing customers because they face so little competition. Since the 1980s, two-thirds of all American industries have become more concentrated.Why are grocery prices through the roof? Because just four companies control 85% of meat and poultry processing. Just one corporation sets the price for most of the nation’s seed corn. And two giant firms dominate consumer staples.All are raising prices and increasing profits because they can.Big pharma, comprising five giants, is causing drug prices to soar.The airline industry has gone from 12 carriers in 1980 to just four today, all rapidly raising ticket prices.Wall Street has consolidated into five giant banks, raking in record profits on the spreads between the interest they pay on deposits and what they charge on loans.Broadband is dominated by three giant cable companies, all raising their prices.Automobile dealers are enjoying record profits as they raise the retail prices of automobiles.Gas prices have started to drop but big oil still has the power to raise prices at the pump far higher than the costs of crude.And so on.This is why Congress and the administration need to take direct action against profit-price inflation, rather than rely solely on the Fed to raise interest rates and put the burden of fighting inflation on average working people who are not responsible for it.Bold antitrust enforcement is essential. Even the credible threat of antitrust enforcement can deter corporations from raising prices higher than their costs.A windfall profits tax could also be helpful. This would be a temporary tax on price increases exceeding the producer price index’s costs of producing consumer goods.Price controls should be a backstop. The current inflation, emerging from the pandemic, is analogous to the inflation after the second world war when economists advocated temporary price controls to buy time to overcome supply bottlenecks and prevent corporate profiteering.Limited price controls should be considered now, for the same reasons.The inflation we are now experiencing is not due to wage gains from excessive worker power. It is due to profit gains from excessive corporate power.It’s profits, not wages, that need to be controlled.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
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      Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation

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      Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflationThird outsized rate increase in a row as central bank struggles to fight runaway inflation, increasing the cost of everything The Federal Reserve announced another sharp hike in interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank struggles to rein in runaway inflation.The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the third such outsized rate increase in a row, bringing the Fed rate to 3%-3.25% and increasing the cost of everything from credit card debt and mortgages to company financing.The central bank signaled more raises to come, predicting rates would reach 4.4% by the end of the year and not start coming down until 2024. The Fed expects the rate rises to hit the job market – raising unemployment from 3.7% to 4.4% next year – housing prices and to lower economic growth.“We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t,” the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said. “We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging. And we don’t know. No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be.”Central bankers around the world are raising rates sharply as they too attempt to tackle the cost of living crisis. This week the Bank of England is expected to announce its largest rate rise in 25 years. The European Central Bank raised interest rates across the eurozone by a record margin earlier this month.The Fed initially dismissed rising inflation, arguing it was a “transitory” phase triggered by the pandemic and supply chain issues. But as prices escalated the Fed announced a series of aggressive moves in the hopes of bringing prices back under control.Until recently Powell had said he hoped that the economy could achieve what he called a “soft landing” – a slowdown that would bring costs down but not lead to a spike in unemployment and a recession.Speaking at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, some of the US’s top bankers said it was too early to tell how rate rises would impact the economy. “I think there’s a chance, not a big change, a small chance, of a soft landing,” said Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase.“There’s a chance of a mild recession, a chance of a hard recession. And because of the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty in global energy and food supply, there’s a chance that it could be worse. I think policymakers should be prepared for the worst, so we take the right actions if and when that happens,” he said.Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive which should reduce spending and lower prices. But the policy is a blunt instrument and rate rises take time to filter through to the wider economy. So far the Fed’s rate rises have not had a significant impact.The US jobs market remains robust, with unemployment still close to a 50-year low, consumer spending rose last month and inflation remained stubbornly high in August, 8.3% higher than a year ago.There are, however, some signs of a slowdown. Existing home sales fell in August for the seventh consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 19.9% lower than in August 2021 and are now at their lowest level since they briefly stalled during the height of the pandemic in 2020. And large employers including BestBuy, Ford and Walmart have announced layoffs or hiring freezes.TopicsFederal ReserveUS economyBank of EnglandInflationEconomicsEuropean Central BankUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump says he invoked fifth amendment in New York attorney general’s investigation: ‘I declined to answer’ – as it happened

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      In a lengthy statement, Donald Trump has announced he refused to answer questions during a deposition today as part of New York attorney general Letitia James’s investigation into his real estate dealings.The statement is full of attacks on James, but closes with the former president declaring he has lost faith in the justice system – at least under his Democratic rival, president Joe Biden:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}I once asked, “If you’re innocent, why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?” Now I know the answer to that question. When your family, your company, and all the people in your orbit have become the targets of an unfounded, politically motivated Witch Hunt supported by lawyers, prosecutors, and the Fake News Media, you have no choice. If there was any question in my mind, the raid of my home, Mar-a-Lago, on Monday by the FBI, just two days prior to this deposition, wiped out any uncertainty. I have absolutely no choice because the current Administration and many prosecutors in this Country have lost all moral and ethical bounds of decency.
      Accordingly, under the advice of my counsel and for all of the above reasons, I declined to answer the questions under the rights and privileges afforded to every citizen under the United States Constitution.Trump to face sworn deposition in New York lawsuit as legal troubles mountRead moreBe they at Mar-a-Lago or the New York attorney general’s office, former president Donald Trump’s legal issues were a major story today, as was an alleged Iranian plot to kill John Bolton, one of Tehran’s biggest enemies in Washington.Here’s a recap of the day’s events:
      Donald Trump invoked the fifth amendment against self incrimination when he sat for a deposition at the office of state attorney general Letitia James this morning, in her civil case relating to the former president’s real estate business.
      National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Iran against any attacks targeting Americans following allegations that it plotted to kill Bolton, a former national security adviser in the Trump administration and noted Iran hawk.
      Data showing inflation flatlining in July prompted Joe Biden to say the figures were a sign that the world’s largest economy was healthy and poised to see prices moderate in the months to come.
      House speaker Nancy Pelosi said her visit to Taiwan was meant as a show of solidarity and not to fundamentally change Washington’s relationship with the island.
      Politico reports some new developments in the FBI’s visit to Mar-a-Lago, specifically efforts to get access to the search warrant, which hasn’t been released.Both rightwing group Judicial Watch and the Times Union newspaper serving the Albany, New York areas have filed motions to unseal the warrant:JUST IN: Judicial Watch motion to unseal the (possible) sealed search warrant for Mar-a-Lago has hit the docket.https://t.co/JORzlrE7rl pic.twitter.com/DT3XF5fNPs— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 10, 2022
      BREAKING: Magistrate Judge Reinhart is asking for DOJ to respond to Judicial Watch’s unsealing request for (what I presume is) the Mar-a-Lago warrant by COB on Aug. 15. pic.twitter.com/Y4uJV3TGoz— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 10, 2022
      The Albany Times-Union has also made a motion to unseal the search warrant, and Magistrate Reinhart has said DOJ can file a consolidated response to all unsealing motions: https://t.co/vdCBCdPwpG— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 10, 2022
      And the Times-Union has made an identical motion to unseal a second sealed search-warrant case that was also docketed on Friday. It’s unclear which of the two is the Mar-a-Lago warrant.— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 10, 2022
      Meanwhile, FBI director Christopher Wray isn’t saying much about the matter, according to ABC:Speaking for the first time since the FBI searched Former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, FBI Director Christopher Wray told reporters in Omaha, NB he couldn’t get into the details. “Well, as I’m sure you can appreciate that’s not something I can talk about,” he said.— Luke Barr (@LukeLBarr) August 10, 2022
      Voters in four more states went to the polls last night to choose candidates in primary elections – and to also offer a glimpse into how Americans are thinking as the November midterms draw ever nearer.Multiple pollsters now see the Democrats’ prospects improving thanks to voters rallying around reproductive rights following the supreme court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and Republicans opting for more extreme, Trump-friendly candidates to stand in the upcoming general election. Nate Cohn of The New York Times puts it this way:The GOP holds MN-1 in last night’s special election, but only by a modest 4 point margin (Trump+10 district; R+3 in last House race)The signs of a Democratic rebound post-Dobbs are starting to pile up https://t.co/9XJZGnxPqT— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 10, 2022
      There haven’t been many other special/non-primary election results since Dobbs, but MN-01 isn’t exactly alone. NE-01 was also a strong showing for Democrats. There’s also the KS abortion referendum, if you count it.We’ll get more data, including NY-19, over the next few weeks.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 10, 2022
      Democrats have also trended upward on the generic congressional ballot, where they’ve reached parity with the GOPNo way to know if it lasts until November, but the focus on abortion/Jan 6 hasn’t ebbed–yet. At the same time, the news on inflation has improved for Ds— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) August 10, 2022
      Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight sees things like this:Here’s something I think about. Let’s say Democrats somehow do hold the House this year. It’s not likely, but it’s also not impossible (~20% chance per 538 model). In 20 years, will people have a hard time explaining why it happened?I think no, they won’t. https://t.co/IiuAg9cVWO— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 10, 2022
      The last time POTUS’s party gained seats in the House were 1998 and 2002. These are generally attributed to Lewinsky and 9/11, respectively.If Ds hold the House in 2022, people will attribute it to Roe being overturned and overall GOP radicalization including Jan. 6.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 10, 2022
      Is Dobbs + Jan. 6 a “special circumstance” equal in magnitude to 9/11? That’s a very apples-to-oranges comparison but I’d tend to say no; people forget how profoundly 9/11 changed public opinion. But is it comparable to Lewinsky? Certainly. It’s bigger, I’d think.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 10, 2022
      Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter sums it up:This much is clear from Kansas and the #NE01/#MN01 House specials: there’s still time for things to snap back before November, but we’re no longer living in a political environment as pro-GOP as November 2021.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 10, 2022
      To be sure, Democrats appear to be deep under water in the polls when it comes to control of the House, FiveThirtyEight says. Faring even worse is Joe Biden himself, whose approval rate has slid and slid and slid for months, with signs of stabilization coming only recently.The House of Representatives has taken the first steps to passing the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration’s marquee spending proposal that is intended to lower health care costs and fight climate change.The Senate approved the legislation over the weekend with Democratic votes alone after pulling an all-nighter Saturday. While the House isn’t expected to vote on the bill till Friday, the chamber’s rules committee convened today to move it towards consideration by the full chamber.With Democrats thought to be on the cusp of losing control of the House in the November midterm elections, the bill could be one of the last major pieces of legislation passed in Biden’s first term. It was also intended to be much more ambitious, but provisions to lower housing costs and provide more aid and social services to poor Americans were stripped out in the lengthy negotiations that preceded its passage in the Senate.The Washington Post reports that Democrats are now making something of a long-shot pitch to voters: re-elect us in September and we will try again to pass those programs that didn’t make it into the Inflation Reduction Act. As Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer put it to the paper: “If we win, we’re going to have to do a reconciliation bill that will take care of a lot of the things that we couldn’t do”.Monkeypox cases are increasing across the United States, and as Wilfred Chan reports, the campaign against the disease is caught up in rightwing campaigns against LGBTQ+ rights:The conservative campaign against LGBTQ+ rights has found a new fixation for its hatred: monkeypox. On TV, rightwing commentators openly mock monkeypox victims – the vast majority of whom are men who have sex with men – and blame them for getting the disease. On social media, rightwing users trade memes about how the “cure” to monkeypox is straight marriage while casting doubt on monkeypox vaccines’ efficacy.This aggressive stigmatization of monkeypox – reminiscent of the homophobic response to HIV/Aids in the 1980s – poses a serious challenge to public health advocates and community leaders trying to have honest conversations about the disease with the gay and bisexual men who are most at risk during the current outbreak. Should public messaging highlight the fact that monkeypox is primarily affecting men who have sex with men? And should public health bodies urge gay men to change their sexual practices?The simultaneous threats of homophobia and monkeypox require making a difficult choice about which to tackle first, says the writer and veteran Aids activist Mark S King, a 61-year-old gay man.Rightwing media embraces Aids-era homophobia in monkeypox coverageRead moreFederal prosecutors in Michigan today began laying out their case against two men accused of plotting to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer in 2020, saying that conversations about their plan went beyond just idle talk, Reuters reports.Adam Fox and Barry Croft Jr face kidnapping and weapons conspiracy charges for the second time after a federal judge in Grand Rapids, Michigan declared a mistrial last April.The men – alleged members of the Three Percenters, a self-styled militia group – are accused of plotting to abduct Whitmer from her vacation home and stage a “trial” for her for treason. Two other defendants were found not guilty in the men’s first trial.The mistrial was a setback for federal prosecutors in one of the highest-profile cases in years involving militias. The second trial will give them another opportunity.In his opening statement on Wednesday, a prosecutor said the men determined where the governor, performed reconnaissance on her summer cottage and gathered the equipment they needed, such as body armor and ammunition, to carry out their plan, according to a local TV station..css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}This wasn*t just talk. You will see these defendants and others took specific steps, planning and training,” Chris O’Connor, the assistant U.S. attorney for the Western District of Michigan, told the jury, local Fox affiliate WXMI reported.Attorneys for Fox and Croft revived their arguments from the first trial saying that there was no conspiracy.Christopher Gibbons, who represents Fox, described the accused as “big talkers” whose comments should not be taken seriously, according to NBC-affiliate WOOD-TV.If convicted on the conspiracy charges, the men face the possibility of life in prison.The two men on trial are among 13 men who were arrested in October 2020 and charged with state or federal crimes in the alleged kidnapping conspiracy. Seven of them are facing charges in state court.It’s been a sparky morning in US political news, mainly relating to the man Joe Biden refers to as “that guy”. The president has now jetted off on vacation but we’ll bring you all the developments as they happen.Here’s where things stand.
      Donald Trump invoked the fifth amendment against self incrimination (with an eye to a parallel criminal case in New York) during a deposition at the office of state attorney general Letitia James this morning, in her civil case relating to the former president’s real estate business.
      National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Iran against any attacks targeting Americans following allegations that it plotted to kill John Bolton, a noted foe of Tehran who served in the Trump administration.
      The justice department announced charges against a Tehran-based member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards for attempting to hire someone in the United States to kill John Bolton, a national security adviser under Donald Trump.
      Data showing inflation flatlining in July prompted Joe Biden to say the figures were a sign that the world’s largest economy was healthy and poised to see prices moderate in the months to come.
      Here is the president and family heading to South Carolina for a break..⁦@POTUS⁩ and fam off to South Carolina for vacation pic.twitter.com/LFEEU9a4BD— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) August 10, 2022
      There’s also this.Did you ever have to take the 5th? Nope? Me neither. pic.twitter.com/LJNOoEA060— Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) August 10, 2022
      Following her visit to Taiwan that has sent tensions with China soaring, Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi said at a press conference that the trip’s goal was not to change Washington’s relationship with Taipei, but rather express solidarity.“We will not allow China to isolate Taiwan”, Pelosi said. “They have kept Taiwan from participating in the World Health Organization, other things were Taiwan can make a very valued contribution. And they may keep them from going there, but they’re not keeping us from going to Taiwan.”She noted Taiwan’s status as a democracy in contrast with authoritarian China, which considers the island a breakaway province and has vowed to reunify with it, even by force. Beijing warned Pelosi against going and responded to her trip by announcing military drills around Taiwan – steps the Democratic lawmaker said China did not take when a delegation of senators visited the island earlier this year.“So in any event, we’re very proud of our delegation”, she said.National security adviser Jake Sullivan has warned Iran against any attacks targeting Americans following allegations that it plotted to kill John Bolton, a noted foe of Tehran who served in the Trump administration.“We have said this before and we will say it again: the Biden Administration will not waiver in protecting and defending all Americans against threats of violence and terrorism. Should Iran attack any of our citizens, to include those who continue to serve the United States or those who formerly served, Iran will face severe consequences. We will continue to bring to bear the full resources of the U.S. Government to protect Americans,” Sullivan said in a statement.Bolton, who was Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, presided over Washington’s decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal, and has advocated for bombing the country. The assassination plot alleged by the justice department earlier today appeared to be in retaliation for the 2020 assassination of Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was killed on Trump’s orders.US charges Iranian man over alleged plot to kill ex-Trump aide John BoltonRead moreFormer national security adviser John Bolton has released a statement thanking the justice department for exposing the assassination plot against him.I wish to thank the Justice Dept for initiating the criminal proceeding unsealed today; the FBI for its diligence in discovering and tracking the Iranian regime’s criminal threat to American citizens; and the Secret Service for providing protection against Tehran’s efforts. pic.twitter.com/QDjkX6gUWM— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) August 10, 2022
      He also takes a stab at the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which the United States pulled out of in 2018, during Bolton’s time in Donald Trump’s White House. The Biden administration along with its allies are in the midst of uncertain and lengthy negotiations with Tehran to revitalize the deal.EU team submit ‘final text’ at talks to salvage 2015 Iran nuclear dealRead moreDespite his apparently mounting legal troubles, Trump has continued to have success in getting his preferred candidates through primaries, as yesterday’s elections show:Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar, a member of the select progressive group in the House of Representative dubbed the Squad, eked out a closer-than-expected Democratic primary victory on Tuesday night against a centrist challenger who questioned the incumbent’s support for the “defund the police” movement.The evening went far smoother for another progressive, Becca Balint, who won the Democratic House primary in Vermont – positioning her to become the first woman representing the state in Congress.But Tim Michels, backed by Donald Trump, was projected to win the Republican nomination for governor of Wisconsin, a day after the FBI searched the former US president’s home in Florida reportedly seeking classified documents.Progressive Ilhan Omar wins closer-than-expected House primary in MinnesotaRead moreMore details are emerging about the FBI’s search on Monday of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, including that agents were looking for papers that the former president may have unlawfully taken from the White House. Hugo Lowell reports:Federal investigators searched Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on Monday bearing a warrant that broadly sought presidential and classified records that the justice department believed the former president unlawfully retained, according to two sources familiar with the matter.The criminal nature of the search warrant executed by FBI agents, as described by the sources, suggested the investigation surrounding Trump is firmly a criminal probe that comes with potentially far-reaching political and legal ramifications for the former president.And the extraordinary search, the sources said, came after the justice department grew concerned – as a result of discussions with Trump’s lawyers in recent weeks – that presidential and classified materials were being unlawfully and improperly kept at the Mar-a-Lago resort.The unprecedented raid of a former president’s home by FBI agents was the culmination of an extended battle between Trump and his open contempt for the Presidential Records Act of 1978 requiring the preservation of official documents, and officials charged with enforcing that law.FBI searched Trump’s home seeking classified presidential records – sourcesRead moreNo matter how he does it, a judge in Georgia yesterday ordered Donald Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani to appear in person before an Atlanta special grand jury looking into attempts to tamper with the state’s election results in 2020.According to The New York Times, Giuliani has claimed his health doesn’t allow him to fly to the state – an argument a judge wasn’t buying.“John Madden drove all over the country in his big bus, from stadium to stadium. So one thing we need to explore is whether Mr. Giuliani could get here without jeopardizing his recovery and his health. On a train, on a bus or Uber, or whatever it would be,” Robert C.I. McBurney, a superior court judge in Fulton County, said.Giuliani has been tentatively ordered to appear on August 17.Giuliani ordered to go before grand jury in Trump election meddling caseRead more More

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      Workers are being punished for inflation. The real culprit is corporate greed | Robert Reich

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      Workers are being punished for inflation. The real culprit is corporate greedRobert ReichBig corporations are using inflation as cover to raise prices. Yet the US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates – further hurting Americans The US Federal Reserve is aiming its powerful firehose at the living room but it’s the forest that’s ablaze. As a result, people may drown even as their house catches fire.This about sums up the sorry state of inflation-fighting in America.On Wednesday, the Fed – America’s central bank – raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, and signaled more rate increases to come, perhaps as soon as September.This followed a quarter-point increase in March, another half a point in May, and three-quarters of a point in June.On Thursday, the commerce department announced that the US economy had shrunk for the second quarter in a row.While not technically a recession (economists in and out of the White House have spent much of the last several days deconstructing the word “recession”), there’s no question but that the US economy is slowing.This, to put it mildly, makes no sense.Inflation has broken out all over the world – the consequence of pent-up demand from more than two years of pandemic and of limited supplies of everything from computer chips to wheat, due to difficulties getting the world economy up and running.Add in Putin’s war in Ukraine driving up world energy and food prices, and China’s lockdowns against Covid, and you get a perfect conflagration.That’s not all. Big corporations are busily raising their prices because consumers have so little choice. Corporations are using inflation as cover.Prices at the gas pump have drifted down a bit in the last month but are still eye-popping. (Here in California, I’m paying over $6 a gallon.)At the same time, big oil has hit a gusher. Exxon just reported second-quarter profits of $17.9bn, more than three times what it earned a year ago. Chevron’s profit more than tripled to $11.6bn.The two giant American oil companies aren’t pouring their profits back into energy, green or otherwise. They’re buying back their shares of stock to reward investors and executives.Or consider giant corporations selling consumer staples, such as Proctor & Gamble (maker of everything from Gillette razors to Tide detergent).On Friday, P&G reported another quarter of rising profits despite the increasing costs of raw materials and transportation. How did it manage this feat? By raising its prices even more.Meanwhile, half of the recent rise in grocery prices is from beef, pork and poultry. Just four large conglomerates control these markets, and they’ve been coordinating their price increases to score large profits – here again, using “inflation” as an excuse.If markets were competitive, companies would keep their prices down to prevent competitors from grabbing away customers. But they’re raising prices even as they rake in record profits.The Fed’s firehose is hitting none of this.Meanwhile, we’re told not to worry because the labor market is doing just fine.Rubbish.There are two aspects to the labor market – jobs and wages. The number of jobs has been increasing nicely. Let’s hope this continues. But hourly wages have plummeted, when adjusted for inflation.If the Fed keeps raising interest rates – even if the national economy avoids an official “recession” – most workers will fall even further behind.The living standards of nearly everyone who borrows money are already dropping. Because of the Fed’s rate hikes, the average rate on credit card debt has reached 17.25% (up from 16.34% in March, before the Fed began raising interest rates). Rates on student loans, car loans and mortgages are also rising.The government should use a firehose better aimed at the conflagration, which won’t so badly burden the bottom 80%.For starters, impose a temporary windfall profits tax on big oil, on giant sellers of consumer staples and on big ag. This would reduce their incentive to engage in price gouging.Bolder antitrust enforcement – even the threat to block mergers and break up giant companies – could also reduce their ardor to raise prices.If Congress refuses to allow the government to use its bargaining power to reduce the prices of pharmaceuticals, big pharma is a good candidate for temporary price controls. (FDR controlled prices via executive order.)Finally, higher taxes on the wealthy – such as Democrats seem finally ready to enact – will help dampen total demand, thereby dousing some of the inflation fire.The Fed’s single tool for fire-fighting – interest-rate increases – is aimed in the wrong direction. It’s hitting working people rather than corporations responsible for most price increases (over and above the rising costs of global supplies).We need to fight rising prices, not working people.
      Robert Reich, a former US secretary of labor, is professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley and the author of Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few and The Common Good. His new book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, is out now. He is a Guardian US columnist. His newsletter is at robertreich.substack.com
      TopicsUS economyOpinionInflationFederal ReserveUS politicsOil and gas companiesEnergy industrycommentReuse this content More

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      Republicans rush to label economic slowdown as ‘Joe Biden’s recession’

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      Republicans rush to label economic slowdown as ‘Joe Biden’s recession’Republicans are quick to call a recession as the administration points to brighter employment numbers Prices are rising in the US at the fastest rate in four decades. The Fed raised interest rates again. And new data showed the American economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter, intensifying fears of a recession and handing Republicans a potent line of attack just months before the midterm elections.For embattled Joe Biden, Thursday’s gross domestic product figures were the latest in a string of worrying economic developments clouding his presidency this week. The news came as Democrats celebrated a breakthrough on the president’s long-stalled economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin announced his support for a version of the plan in a shock reversal for the West Virginia holdout.Joe Biden hails Senate deal as ‘most significant’ US climate legislation everRead moreWith control of Congress in the balance, Republicans seized on the turn of events to accuse Democrats of deepening economic disarray with their spending plans. Widespread pessimism about the state of the economy has shaped up to be Biden’s biggest political vulnerability, weighing down his approval ratings and threatening Democrats’ chances in November.Moments after the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the highly anticipated GDP report on Thursday morning, Republicans declared the economy well into the throes of “Joe Biden’s recession” and blamed Democrats’ policy initiatives for making life costlier for Americans.“Biden and Democrats are responsible for our shrinking economy, and they’re only trying to make it worse,” said Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee.GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell by an annual rate of 0.09%, following a 1.6% annual decline in the first three months of the year, according to the commerce department. The numbers recorded two consecutive quarters of declining economic output, a common – but not official – definition of recession.On Thursday, Biden dismissed fears that the US was in a recession, arguing that the economy was “on the right path”.“There’s going to be a lot of chatter today on Wall Street and among pundits about whether we are in a recession,” Biden said on Thursday afternoon. “But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter as well.”In anticipation of the report, the White House has sought to convince Americans that two quarters of economic decline does not necessarily mean the US is in recession, particularly because unemployment remains low, job growth robust and household savings elevated.Biden stressed those sources of strength in the economy during an earlier appearance on Thursday, concluding: “That doesn’t sound like a recession to me.”The president also urged Congress to move quickly to pass his economic agenda that the White House argues will help ease the financial burden on American households by lowering the costs of healthcare and prescription drugs.Biden did pause to take a victory lap on Thursday, interrupting his meeting with the CEOs of five US businesses to announce that the House had enough votes to pass a sprawling bipartisan package designed to strengthen American manufacturing and increase the US’s competitiveness against China.The bill, which next goes to his desk for signatures, will “make cars cheaper, appliances cheaper, and computers cheaper”, Biden said in a statement. “It will lower the costs of every day goods.”But Republicans said the Democrats’ climate, healthcare and tax plan, formerly known as “Build Back Better” and recast as the “Inflation Reduction Act”, would only cause further financial hardship, especially after they passed a $1.9tn coronavirus relief package last year.“The definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,” the Republican congressman Vern Gale Buchanan of Florida wrote on Twitter. “Yet here we are now entering a recession and Democrats are trying to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on Green New Deal priorities and raise taxes on America’s job creators.”Soaring inflation – now running at 40-year highs – led the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to increase interest rates in an effort to bring down prices, the second such increase in just over a month.Labelling the downturn a recession may be more politically charged than economically precise. Recessions are officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research group, and usually only after the decline is over.“Bottom Line,” Diane Swonk, chief economist for KPMG, said on Twitter, “We are not in a recession – yet. But the current environment is [not] healthy. The cure will be painful but is necessary to avoid an even worse outcome. Rock & hard spot. Scars likely. Hard.”The treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said the US economy is in a state of transition, from a period of fast-paced growth to a period of more sustainable growth.Recession, she explained, is generally viewed as a “broad-based weakening of our economy” that includes “substantial job losses and mass layoffs, businesses shutting down, private sector activities slowing considerably”.“That is not what we are seeing right now,” she said.Yet even without an official determination of whether the US is in a recession, polling has found that most Americans believe it is: something likely to cause Democrats pain at the ballot box in November’s crucial elections.According to a recent CNN poll, 64% of Americans “feel” the economy is in recession, including 56% of Democrats and 63% of independents. The same survey found that four in 10 view the economy as “very poor”, an 11-point rise since the spring.Biden defended his administration’s actions, arguing that the economic stimulus plan was “the reason why we still had teachers in school, kids going to school, the reason why we had cops on the beat, the reason we had essential workers,” during the depths of the pandemic. But he admitted that the “vast majority of Americans have no idea what the recovery plan did”.Now, with their congressional majorities hanging in the balance, Democrats must persuade voters to trust their economic leadership as they rush to pass Biden’s economic agenda, which they vow will help, not hurt American pocketbooks.Manchin, who just weeks ago appeared to walk away from his party’s economic plans over concerns that it would worsen inflation, said his newfound support for the measure was based on assurances that it would not.Explaining his decision, Manchin told reporters: “This is truly going to be around inflation reduction.”TopicsBiden administrationInflationEconomicsUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      January 6 hearings: Barr ‘not sure at all’ transition would have happened had DoJ not resisted Trump – live

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      The January 6 committee has concluded its hearing for the day, with the next sessions expected later in July, when House lawmakers return to Washington from a recess.In his closing remarks, committee’s chair Bennie Thompson outlined what the committee had found thus far and what it expected to show in the future..css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;} Up to this point, we’ve shown the inner workings of what was essentially a political coup and attempt to use the powers of the government, from the local level all the way up, to overturn the results of the election. Send fake electors, just say the election was corrupt. Along the way, we saw threats of violence, we saw what some people were willing to do. In a service of the nation, the constitution? No. In service of Donald Trump.
      When the Select Committee continues this series of hearings, we’re going to show how Donald Trump tapped into the threat of violence, how he summoned the mob to Washington, and how after corruption and political pressure failed to keep Donald Trump in office, violence became the last option.The testimony of the justice department officials who gave the bulk of the day’s evidence has concluded, but before they did, Jeffrey Rosen, the acting attorney general, told a tale familiar to those who have watched the committee’s hearings closely: he never heard from Trump on the day of the attack.“I spoke to a number of senior White House officials, but not the president,” Rosen said.What Trump was doing during the attack and who he was talking to are both expected to be focuses of later hearings of the committee.The committee has just unveiled evidence of more Republican congressmen requesting pardons from Trump in his final days in office. NEW on PARDONS: Republican congressman Mo Brooks sent an email on 11 January 2021 seeking pardons for “Every Congressman and Senator who voted to reject the electoral college vote submissions of Arizona and Pennsylvania.”— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) June 23, 2022
      Trump WH aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified that Brooks and Gaetz pushed for pardons for every Republican lawmaker who participated in Jan. 6 planning meeting — and Reps. Perry, Biggs, Gohmert asked for pardons. Jordan asked whether White House would pardon members.— Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) June 23, 2022
      The testimony adds to the list of pardon requests that have emerged as the January 6 committee aired its evidence.Capitol attack pardon revelations could spell doom for Trump and alliesRead moreJeffrey Clark came very close to be the acting attorney general, a position in which he could have used his authority to disrupt the certification of Biden’s election win in several states, according to evidence the committee is airing.On January 3, three days before the attack on the Capitol, the White House had already begun referring to Clark as acting attorney general, according to Adam Kinzinger, the Illinois Republican leading the committee’s questioning today.The committee then turned to exploring a meeting between Trump and the leaders of the justice department that day in the Oval Office, in which Trump repeated specific claims of fraud that had been debunked and expressed his will to see Clark take over the department.Richard Donoghue said he warned of mass resignations to follow if Clark took over the department. “You’re gonna lose your entire department leadership. Every single (assistant attorney general) will walk out. Your entire department of leadership will walk out within hours. And I don’t know what happens after that. I don’t know what the United States attorneys are going to do,” Donoghue said. “My guess would be that many of them would have resigned.”Jeffrey Rosen, the acting attorney general in the final weeks of the Trump administration, is now recounting Trump’s attempt to replace him with Jeffrey Clark, who was playing a major roles in his efforts to have states that voted for Biden overturn their results.In a meeting on a Sunday, Rosen said Clark “told me that he would be replacing me,” and had made the atypical request to ask to meet him alone, “because he thought it would be appropriate in light of what was happening to at least offer me, that I couldn’t stay on his his deputy.”“I thought that was preposterous. I told him that was nonsensical,” Rosen said. “There’s no universe where I was going to do that, to stay on and support someone else doing things that were not consistent with what I thought should be done.”However, Clark also said he would turn down Trump’s offer to replace Rosen if the acting attorney general signed the letter disputing the validity of Georgia’s electors for Biden. Richard Donoghue recounted that Rosen made the decisions to begin informing other department officials about the quandary, and almost all the assistant attorney generals said they would resign if Trump replaced Rosen with Clark.As this hearing has unfolded, the justice department officials testifying have said they investigated many of the claims of fraud in the 2020 election brought forward by Trump and his allies. The decision to look into these claims in the weeks after polls closed may be more significant than it appears at first glance.In video testimony aired earlier in the hearing, William Barr, Trump’s attorney general during the election, said be believes that the department’s ability to debunk the false claims of fraud as Trump was making them were essential to allowing Joe Biden to assume office.“I felt the responsible thing to do was to be… in a position to have a view as to whether or not there was fraud,” Barr told investigators.“I sort of shudder to think what the situation would have been if the position of the department was, we’re not even looking at this until after Biden’s in office. I’m not sure we would have had a transition at all.”The committee has returned, and is now asking Jeffrey Rosen, the acting attorney general, about a request from Trump to seize voting machines.“We had seen nothing improper with regard to the voting machines,” Rosen said he replied, noting that investigators had looked into allegations the machines gave fraudulent results and found nothing wrong. “And so that was not something that was appropriate to do … I don’t think there was legal authority either.”Richard Donoghue, the former acting deputy attorney general, is recounting a meeting with Trump, in which he pushed him unsuccessfully to seize voting machines. By the end, “The president again was getting very agitated. And he said, ‘People tell me I should just get rid of both of you. I should just remove you and make a change in the leadership with Jeff Clark, and maybe something will finally get done,’” Donoghue said.Donoghue said he responded: “Mr President, you should have the leadership that you want. But understand the United States justice department functions on facts and evidence, and then those are not going to change. So you can have whatever leadership you want, but the department’s position is not going to change.”The committee is now in recess, but before they finished, Richard Donoghue described his reaction when he first learned of Jeffrey Clark’s proposed letter to the Georgia legislature asking them to convene to declare alternate electoral college voters.“I had to read both the email and the attached letter twice to make sure I really understood what he was proposing because it was so extreme to me I had a hard time getting my head around it initially,” Donoghue said. He responded in writing to Clark’s letter, saying that its allegations were “not based on facts,” and, in his view, “for the department to insert itself into the political process this way, I think, would have had grave consequences for the country. It may very well have spiraled us into a constitutional crisis. And I wanted to make sure that he understood the gravity of the situation because he didn’t seem to really appreciate it.”Clark himself made a brief appearance in video testimony the committee played before it took its break, responding to questions by asserting his fifth amendment rights and executive privilege.The committee will reconvene in a few minutes.One name that’s coming up a lot in this hearing is Scott Perry, the Pennsylvania Republican congressman who the committee said took part in Trump’s plan to pressure the justice department, and in particular install Jeff Clark at its helm.The committee just showed text messages between Perry and Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows, which showed the lawmaker encouraging Meadows to work on promoting Clark. Richard Donoghue also detailed a phone call from Perry where the congressman claimed fraud in the results in Pennsylvania from the 2020 election – which the justice department determined unfounded.The committee had sought documents and requested an interview with Perry last year, but the Republican refused to comply. Last month, Perry was among a group of congressmen subpoenaed by the committee.Capitol attack panel subpoenas five Republicans in unprecedented stepRead moreRichard Donoghue, the former acting deputy attorney general, is outlining his efforts to convince the president that the justice department could not interfere with a state’s election.“States run their elections. We are not quality control for the states,” he recalled explaining to Trump. “The bottom line was, if a state ran their election in such a way that it was defective, that is to the state or Congress to correct, it is not for the justice department to step in.”But Trump wanted something simpler, Donoghue said.“That’s not what I’m asking you to do,” Donoghue told the committee Trump said after he explained the department’s position. “Just say it was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen,” the president said.Today’s hearing is focusing on the inner workings of the justice department, but as in previous sessions, the committee has tried to make sure the insurrection isn’t far from viewers’ minds.Case in point: lawmakers just aired video from the day of the attack showing marchers chanting “Do your job!” outside the justice department — evidence that Trump’s most ardent supporters were well aware of the president’s attempts to push government lawyers to interfere with Joe Biden’s victory.But as justice department officials tell it, they never believed in Trump’s fraud claims. Richard Donoghue, the former acting deputy attorney general, said Trump lawyer Pat Cipollone described the letter Clark wanted to send for Trump as a “murder-suicide pact. It’s going to damage everyone who touches it.”The committee’s top Republican Liz Cheney is offering more details about the actions of justice department official Jeffrey Clark, who had his house raided today by federal investigators.According to Cheney, Clark and another justice department lawyer drafted a letter addressed to the Georgia state legislature, which would have said the department had “identified significant concerns that may have impacted the outcome of the election in multiple states, including the state of Georgia”, and that the legislature should convene and consider approving a new slate of electors. Joe Biden had won Georgia, but Trump made baseless allegations of fraud in the polls, and the new electors would have presumably given him the state’s electoral votes.“In fact, Donald Trump knew this was a lie,” Cheney said. “The Department of Justice had already informed the president of the United States repeatedly that its investigations had found no fraud sufficient to overturn the results of the 2020 election.”Cheney said Clark had met with Trump privately and agreed to help him sway these states’ legislatures without telling his bosses at the justice department. But Cheney said Clark’s superiors – who are the witnesses testifying today – refused to sign it. That was when Trump began considering installing Clark at the helm at the justice department – which he never ended up doing. The House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection has started its fifth hearing, which will focus on Donald Trump’s efforts to get the justice department to go along with his plans to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. Testifying in the chamber will be:
      Jeffrey Rosen, the acting attorney general for the final weeks of Trump’s term, including during the attack on the Capitol.
      Richard Donoghue, the former acting deputy attorney general, who appeared in a video aired at the conclusion of Tuesday’s hearing threatening to resign if Trump appointed Jeffrey Clark to head the justice department.
      Steven Engel, the former assistant attorney general for the office of legal counsel.
      We’re about 10 minutes away from the start of today’s January 6 hearing, which my colleague Lauren Gambino reports will offer new evidence of how Trump pressured the justice department to take part in his plot to overturn the 2020 election:The House committee investigating the January 6 insurrection plans to present new evidence on Thursday about Donald Trump’s brazen attempts to pressure the justice department to overturn the 2020 presidential election that he lost, aides said.After exhausting his legal options and being rebuffed by state and local elections officials, the president turned to the justice department to declare the election corrupt despite no evidence of mass voter fraud, the nine-member panel will seek to show in their fifth and final hearing of the month.Testifying from the Cannon Caucus Room on Capitol Hill are Jeffrey Rosen, the former acting attorney general; Richard Donoghue, the former acting deputy attorney general; and Steven Engel, the former assistant attorney general for the office of legal counsel.Capitol attack panel to show how Trump pressured DoJ to overturn electionRead more More