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      Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Collars, Captured by Camera

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      An exhibit at the Jewish Museum features photos of collars worn by the late Supreme Court justice.Good morning. It’s Friday. We’ll look at an exhibition of photographs of the collars that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wore. We’ll also look at a Manhattan Democrat whose City Hall hopes were dashed in 2021 but who is now looking into challenging Mayor Eric Adams in 2025.Kris GravesIn the soft stillness of a museum gallery, you could forget that the photographs on the walls around you were shot under time pressure.Six minutes each, the photographer Elinor Carucci told me.The photographs, on view at the Jewish Museum in Manhattan, are haunting, almost three-dimensional images of collars and necklaces that belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the Supreme Court.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      The Volodymyr Zelensky-Donald Trump Divide Looms at Davos

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      Ukraine’s leader and the potential re-election of Donald Trump as president are dominating discussion at the World Economic Forum. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, tried to tamp down worries about Donald Trump, and whether his potential re-election would lead to a drop in support for his country.Radek Pietruszka/EPA, via ShutterstockZelensky and Trump loom over Davos Two people are having an outsize impact at the World Economic Forum, and one of them isn’t even there.One is Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, who put on a full-court press of business and global leaders at the forum in Davos, Switzerland. The other is Donald Trump, whose potential re-election is dominating the discussion among attendees.Zelensky used an expletive to describe a Trump claim about containing Vladimir Putin. At a Q. and A. with journalists that Andrew moderated, Zelensky dismissed the idea that Trump could stop the Russian president from going after other parts of Europe. Putin, he added, “will not stop — but the question is what will the U.S. and Trump do after this point, because in this case it will mean that Europe lost the most useful and most strong army in Europe because we lost Ukraine.”Zelensky initially sought to tamp down worries about Trump, and whether his potential re-election would lead to a drop in support for Ukraine. But he also appeared somewhat fearful about the prospect. “One man cannot change the whole nation,” Zelensky said in the Q. and A., adding that deciding on the next president is “a choice for the American nation and only the American nation.”The Ukrainian leader acknowledged that a win for Trump, who has opposed U.S. aid to Ukraine, could affect his country’s military campaign or settlement talks. “Radical voices from the Republican Party” have created tension and pain for the Ukrainian people, he said.Zelensky isn’t the only leader at Davos worried about Trump. Multiple attendees have told DealBook that the outcome of the election is a potential risk for business, particularly after the former president thumped his Republican rivals in the Iowa caucuses.The Ukrainian leader has sought to shore up global business support. He spoke at a private gathering of executives organized by JPMorgan Chase, which is advising Ukraine on its reconstruction efforts.In the audience at the Congress Center for the talk were Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, David Rubenstein of Carlyle and Michael Dell of Dell, DealBook hears.Zelensky also spoke about how U.S.-China tensions are affecting Ukraine. Bringing Beijing on board with the country’s reconstruction is important, given China’s size and influence on Russia, he told the C.E.O.s. But Ukraine is seen as an American concern, not a global one.Seen and heard around town: The traffic on the main street was so bad that John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, hoofed it to a meeting. And the annual wine tasting hosted by Anthony Scaramucci, the financier and former Trump official, well, ran out of wine.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Rate-cut concerns rattle the markets. European stocks and bonds are down this morning, after Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, warned that interest rates may not fall until the summer, and inflation in Britain rose unexpectedly. U.S. futures are also down after Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, signaled yesterday that it was premature to consider a rate cut in the first quarter.Disney formally rejected Nelson Peltz’s board nominees. The entertainment giant has submitted a slate of directors — including James Gorman of Morgan Stanley and Mary Barra of General Motors — and snubbed the activist investor, who has criticized Disney over strategy and succession planning. Separately, compensation for Bob Iger, Disney’s C.E.O., for fiscal 2023 topped $31 million.BP appoints a new C.E.O. The energy giant today named as its new chief Murray Auchincloss. The former C.F.O. stepped in as interim chief four months ago after his predecessor, Bernard Looney resigned for failing to disclose relationships with employees. Auchincloss has indicated that he will follow Looney’s strategy to build up the company’s renewables business and cut back its oil and gas production by the end of the decade.China’s conundrum China delivered a double dose of bad news this morning, pushing down markets in Asia. Official data shows that the economy grew last year at its slowest pace in decades and that the country’s population declined again.The readings are another sign of deeper problems in the world’s second-largest economy, as it grapples with a property crisis, weak consumer confidence, falling exports, deflationary pressures and big demographic challenges.The economy grew 5.2 percent last year, up from 3 percent in 2022 when strict coronavirus restrictions were in place. That was better than the official target of about 5 percent but 2024 is expected to be tougher, with a Reuters poll of analysts forecasting growth that will probably slow to 4.6 percent.The population decline points to bigger challenges. The country recorded more deaths than births for a second straight year. Beijing is worried because fewer people means fewer consumers, and it needs working-age people to fuel growth. Retail sales in December were lower than expectations, too, while industrial output barely surpassed them.A post-Covid boost hasn’t materialized. “Chinese authorities and some international economists believed that China’s economic downturn in the past few years was caused by the “zero Covid” policy,” Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and an expert on Chinese demographics, told DealBook. “But China’s economic recovery was much weaker than expected last year, as the core drivers of the downturn were aging and a declining work force.”Structural reforms are needed to address these new realities. But for the short term, China will continue to rely on export-led growth at a time when many Western companies are already looking to move parts of their supply chains elsewhere.A federal judge has struck down JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion deal to buy Spirit Airlines, which would have been the biggest such tie-up in a decade.Allison Dinner/EPA, via ShutterstockAn airline deal hits turbulence The Biden administration scored a major victory yesterday after a federal judge struck down JetBlue’s proposed $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit Airlines, a low-cost rival, ruling that the merger would harm competition.The decision blocks the airline sector’s biggest attempted tie-up in the U.S. in over a decade, and throws into question the industry’s efforts to consolidate. President Biden hailed the ruling as “a victory for consumers everywhere who want lower prices and more choices.”The Biden administration says airline mergers have made travel more costly. Last year, the Justice Department won a lawsuit that forced JetBlue and American Airlines to end a regional code-sharing alliance.The Justice Department argued that a JetBlue-Spirit combination would remove a low-cost competitor from the market, messing with the economics of airfares. The judge, William Young, agreed, saying that combining forces would “likely incentivize JetBlue further to abandon its roots as a maverick, low-cost carrier.”Shares in Spirit plunged after the decision. Stock in the budget airline, which received bailout funding during the coronavirus pandemic’s early days and is known for its yellow planes and no-frills service, sank 47 percent yesterday. The companies have not yet said whether they will appeal.What next? Alaska Airlines’s $1.9 billion deal to acquire Hawaiian Airlines could also face tough scrutiny.Big fish to fry at the Supreme Court The Supreme Court justices will hear a case today that started with commercial herring fishermen challenging a rule about paying the regulators who oversaw them. The legal fight is hugely consequential, and could ultimately limit the powers of federal agencies.The case challenges the power of administrative law. Courts today must defer to the hundreds of agencies that interpret a mountain of federal rules in regulating industry. Critics say this doctrine — known as Chevron deference — handcuffs judges, robbing them of the power to review and reverse agency actions.Lawyers for the fishermen are expected to argue that the principle should be overruled, or at least simplified. The arguments won’t fall on deaf ears. Justice Neil Gorsuch has written that the Chevron deference doctrine “deserves a tombstone.”The death of the principle could hobble regulators because their decisions could be overturned in court. Such a prospect is key to conservatives seeking a weaker administrative state. Court records show that the fishermen’s lawyers have links to Americans for Prosperity, a group funded by the petrochemicals billionaire Charles Koch, The Times’s Hiroko Tabuchi reports. Koch, the chairman of Koch Industries, is a longtime supporter of anti-regulatory causes.This case is part of a larger conservative campaign. A 2022 Supreme Court decision that constrained the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority on emissions regulation bolstered right-leaning activists. That case has helped opened the door to further legal challenges to regulators’ powers, including one this term involving the S.E.C.What to watch for in 2024 The Atlantic Council, an international affairs research organization, gave DealBook a first look at its annual list of the top risks, opportunities and under-the-radar phenomena to watch this year.Geopolitical conflict is a big focus. There is a “medium to high” probability that the Israel-Hamas war widens, according to the analysis, and that is underscored by intensifying U.S.-led strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels who are attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea corridor.Other hot spots include Ukraine and Taiwan. The West could pull back funding for Ukraine, the report’s authors write, making a Russian victory more likely. Meanwhile, China could choke off Taiwanese ports with a naval blockade rather than risking an invasion of the self-governed island nation.“Smartifacts” may be an opportunity. Cars, appliances and personal electronics will increasingly be equipped with artificial intelligence to better interact with the physical world, the analysts write. They predict that “2024 will be the year when A.I. goes mainstream, and not just on our screens,” potentially yielding an “entirely new class of devices.”Could white paint be an under-the-radar opportunity? The Atlantic Council also compiles an annual list of underappreciated risks and opportunities that it calls “snow leopards,” named for the well-camouflaged mountain cats.This year, the list includes super reflective white paint that can help reduce emissions and reliance on energy by reflecting 98 percent of the sun’s rays. “It’s one of those things that seems pretty simple, but it could have an outsize impact,” said Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the organization.THE SPEED READ DealsUber is shutting Drizly, the alcohol-delivery business it bought in 2021 for $1.1 billion. (WSJ)Investors are raising billions to buy discounted stakes in venture capital-backed tech start-ups. (FT)Synopsys, a supplier to the chips sector, has agreed to buy Ansys, a software firm, for $35 billion. (NYT)PolicyThe Supreme Court denied a request to hear an antitrust case between Epic Games and Apple, leaving a lower-court ruling that was seen as a win for Apple in place. (Axios)Congressional leaders agreed a $78 billion deal to expand the child tax credit and other popular expired business tax breaks. (NYT)Best of the restHarvard is trying to smooth relations with Silicon Valley after turmoil over antisemitism on campus. (WSJ)“Airbus Is Pulling Ahead as Boeing’s Troubles Mount” (NYT)Hockey die-hards are building snazzy new rinks in their backyards. (WSJ)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      Artificial Intelligence, Ukraine, China — The Big Buzz at Davos

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      C.E.O.s and world leaders gather in the Swiss Alps this year as war, trade risks and disruptive new technologies loom large.The topics on the mind of attendees at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, include artificial intelligence, the war in Gaza and the future of Ukraine.Denis Balibouse/ReutersThe meetings behind the meeting Thousands of global leaders have once again descended on snowy Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. The theme of this year’s event: “rebuilding trust.”But there are the public meetings, and then there are the real ones behind closed doors that the attendees are talking about most. These include discussions touching on U.S.-China tensions, the war in Gaza, artificial intelligence and the future of Ukraine.There is a kind of game that some C.E.O.s play with one another: How many public panels are you on, or how many times have you been in the Congress Center, the main hub for the forum’s big presentations? If the answer is zero, you’ve won. Top U.S. officials are set to appear on the main stage, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser. But speculation abounds about whom they’re seeing behind the scenes.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Honor Roberto Clemente With a Coin, Congressman Says

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      The right fielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates deserves to be commemorated with a coin, Representative Adriano Espaillat says.Good morning. It’s Thursday. Today we’ll find out why a congressman from the Bronx is pressing for a coin to commemorate a baseball player from the Pittsburgh Pirates. We’ll also see what to expect as Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial moves into its final phase.Preston Stroup/Associated PressRepresentative Adriano Espaillat has introduced 49 bills in this session of Congress. One would direct colleges to send information about hate crimes to the federal Department of Education. Another would simplify the requirements for federal assistance after disasters like Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017.Yet another bill would authorize a coin commemorating Roberto Clemente, the superlative right fielder who played for only one team in 18 years in the major leagues, the Pittsburgh Pirates.Why is a congressman from the Bronx cheering on a star of a team that beat the Yankees in the World Series?“I watched him play,” Espaillat said, before talking about how deep the Pirates’ stadium was when Clemente played there — 457 feet to the center-field wall.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      A Major Trump Hearing

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      A case before an appeals court in Washington could influence how the former president’s trials will play out this year. Donald Trump’s four criminal trials can seem dizzying, including both federal and state cases, across Florida, Georgia, New York and Washington. But it’s worth remembering that the cases have different timetables. And any case that might produce a verdict before Election Day is probably more important than the others.The cases that don’t reach a verdict before November may become moot if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. As president, he could try to end the two federal cases, while many legal scholars believe that the Constitution prevents state prosecutors from pursuing charges against a sitting president.This reality explains why Trump’s defense strategy revolves around delaying the cases. Any case he can push into 2025 may be irrelevant, at least for another four years.Today in Washington, an appeals court will hear an argument that will shape the timing of the case that seems to be furthest along: the federal trial involving Trump’s efforts to remain in power despite losing the 2020 election. Trump claims he is immune from prosecution because the charges stem from actions that he took while he was president. Adding to the drama, he has said that he will attend today’s argument in person.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Wall Street strategists’ bull and bear scenarios for 2024.

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      Wall Street’s forecasts mostly missed this year’s bull market rally. Here’s what strategists are saying about 2024.Last November and December, veteran stock market watchers forecast that 2023 would be a year to forget. They saw high inflation, a looming global recession and rising interest rates as sapping households’ buying power and denting corporate profits. For investors, they penciled in paltry gains and one of the worst performances for the S&P 500 in the past 15 years.But the market pros got the story only partly right. While interest rates did climb to a near two-decade peak, the S&P 500 has surprisingly soared to a near record high. Fueled partly by a rally in the so-called Magnificent Seven megacap tech stocks, it’s risen nearly 25 percent this year, as of Thursday’s close, shaking off a banking crisis, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and slowing growth in China’s economy.Crypto managed to do even better. Bitcoin bulls have swept aside a legal crackdown against the industry’s biggest players to fuel an impressive rally. The digital token has gained more than 150 percent this year, making it one of the best performing risky assets.“Twenty twenty-three was a great year for the contrarians,” David Bahnsen, the founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, a wealth management firm, told DealBook. “You had macroeconomic concerns a year ago that didn’t come to bear, and you had valuation and financial concerns that didn’t come to bear. And it’s particularly ironic that it didn’t, because actually everything investors feared a year ago got worse.”Wall Street’s outlook for 2024 is rosier. Analysts see lower borrowing costs, a soft landing (that is, an economic slowdown that avoids a recession) and a pretty good year for investors.But if 2023 taught the market pros anything, it’s that forecasts can look out of date pretty fast. A slew of things could disrupt the markets in the year ahead — inflation creeping up again, or not, is one big factor to watch. And there are wild cards, too, with voters expected to head to the polls in over 50 countries next year, including the U.S.Here’s how Wall Street sees 2024 playing out:The bull caseThe median year-end 2024 forecast for the S&P 500 is 5,068, according to FactSet. Such a level would imply an annualized gain of roughly 6 percent for 2024.Bank of America’s equity strategists, led by Savita Subramanian, are among those in the bullish camp. In their annual forecast, they said that the S&P 500 would be likely to close out next year at 5,000, helped by a kind of “goldilocks” scenario of falling prices and rising corporate profits.Goldman Sachs is even more upbeat. Its analysts upgraded their year-end 2024 call on the S&P 500 to 5,100. They made the change after the Fed’s surprise statement on Dec. 13 that the equivalent of three interest-rate cuts were on the table for next year. Lower borrowing costs tend to give consumers and businesses more spending power, which could help Corporate America’s bottom line.Another catalyst: Investors this year put far more money into safe interest-rate sensitive assets, like money market funds, than they did into stocks. That logic could be flipped on its head in 2024. “As rates begin to fall, investors may rotate some of their cash holdings toward stocks,” David Kostin, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a recent investor note.The bear caseOn the more pessimistic side is JPMorgan Chase, which carries a 2024 year-end target of 4,200. Its analysts team, led by Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global market strategist, sees a struggling consumer with depleted savings, a potential recession and geopolitical uncertainty that could push up commodity prices, like oil, and push down global growth.The year ahead will be “another challenging year for market participants,” Kolanovic said. (Most strategists are even more downbeat on Europe, where recession fears are more acute. On the flip side, equities in Asia could show another year of solid growth, especially in India and Japan, Wall Street analysts say.)Lee Ferridge, the head of multi-asset strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets, is more optimistic about the American consumer, but points to a different challenge for investors. “If I’m right, the economy stays stronger. But then that’s a double-edged sword for equities,” he said. The prospect of robust consumer and business spending poses an inflation risk that could force the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, and even pause cuts, he said. “That’s going to be a headwind for equities.”“I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fairly flat year next year,” he added. “If we are up, it’s going to be the Magnificent Seven that are the drivers again.”The wild card: politics and the electionsPresidential elections are not rally killers, according to market analysis by LPL Financial that looks at the past 71 years. In that period, the S&P has risen, on average, by 7 percent during U.S. presidential election years. (The market tends to do even better in a re-election year, the financial advice firm notes.)Even with some uncommon questions swirling over next year’s contest — Will a mountain of legal troubles derail the Republican front-runner, Donald Trump? Will President Biden’s sagging polling ratings open the door for a strong third-party challenger? Will the election result be disputed, causing a constitutional crisis? — that’s unlikely to add much volatility to the markets, Wall Street pros say.“The election will not be a story in the stock market, up until November 2024, for the simple reason that the stock market will not know who’s going to win the election until November 2024,” Bahnsen said.His advice: Don’t even try to game out the election’s impact on the markets. More

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      Big Donors Rally Around Nikki Haley

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      The former governor of South Carolina is winning support from some Democrats and business-minded conservatives as the G.O.P. candidate who can beat Donald Trump.Nikki Haley is beginning to gain in the polls and has won financial backing from donors such as Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic donor, and the Koch brothers.Maansi Srivastava/The New York TimesA bipartisan boost for HaleyAs the four remaining prominent Republican presidential contenders not named Donald Trump assemble for the latest G.O.P. primary debate tonight, just one will arrive with any sort of positive momentum.Nikki Haley is gaining traction as the leading anti-Trump Republican, particularly among Democrats and business-minded conservatives alike. But growing support from elites may not be enough to help her catch the former president.Reid Hoffman recently donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting Haley. The LinkedIn co-founder and a major Democratic donor has funded an array of anti-Trump initiatives. His donation, first reported by The Times, is the latest sign that some Democrats see bolstering Haley as the best way to beat Trump.News of Hoffman’s contribution came after Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., urged liberals to back Haley. “Get a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump,” he said at the DealBook Summit last week. That’s on top of growing support from business-minded Republicans. The political network founded by Charles and David Koch recently endorsed Haley, and deep-pocketed donors including Stanley Druckenmiller and Andy Sabin have attended fund-raising events for her.A reality check: Despite skipping all of the Republican primary debates and facing a staggering array of criminal and civil trials, Trump still leads Haley and the rest of the G.O.P. field in polls.And support from Democrats and corporate moguls may not endear Haley to the Republican base that will start voting on the G.O.P. candidate next month: A recent fund-raising email from Trump argued that “globalist special interest donors from both parties” are forging “an unholy alliance to beat us.”Other Republican contenders are faring even worse. The campaign of Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, is in turmoil. Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, barely qualified for the debate and faces calls to drop out to avoid fracturing the anti-Trump opposition. And Vivek Ramaswamy, the outspoken “anti-woke” entrepreneur, is fading in the polls.Some donors are just throwing up their hands. Marc Rowan, the C.E.O. of Apollo Global Management, said that the 2024 race would come down to President Biden and Trump. “Personally, I’m disappointed,” he told Bloomberg on Tuesday.In other 2024 news: Liz Cheney, the former Wyoming representative who vehemently opposes Trump, is weighing a third-party presidential run. And Biden said “I’m not sure I’d be running” for re-election were Trump not in the race for the White House.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING The Supreme Court appears wary of broadly disrupting the U.S. tax code. In oral arguments for Moore v. United States, a majority of justices seemed to favor narrowly upholding a Trump-era one-time tax on foreign income. Legal experts warned that a broad ruling could lead to a redefinition of income, potentially requiring major portions of American tax law to be rewritten.CVS will change how its pharmacies are paid for drugs. The nation’s biggest pharmacy chain said it would move to a system based on how much it pays for medicines, rather than the current model that involves complex formulas. CVS said the new arrangement would give more insight into drug pricing, but skeptics argued that it may not lead to lower costs for consumers.The N.C.A.A.’s president proposes uncapped compensation for college athletes. Charlie Baker suggested that top schools set aside educational trust funds of a minimum of $30,000 annually for at least half of their athletes, and raise compensation for women. The plan — which would take a long time to put in effect — is aimed at helping protect the N.C.A.A. from antitrust inquiries.Patrick McHenry, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, will retire. The North Carolina Republican, the first interim speaker and a champion of the crypto industry, said he wouldn’t seek re-election. Because of term limits, he wouldn’t be able to hold onto his chairmanship anyway, though his district will most likely remain in Republican hands.Bank bosses head to the Hill The heads of America’s biggest banks, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, are expected to go on the offensive on Wednesday at a Senate Banking Committee hearing, arguing that new regulation would help create further instability in the sector and harm borrowers.Capital rules will be in focus. Industry lobbying groups have pushed back in recent months against the so-called Basel III Endgame that would require banks to keep billions on their books as a backstop for potential losses. (Basel refers to the international banking standards committee.) The Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are among the regulators seeking higher capital requirements after the regional banking crisis set off by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.The hearing may be the bankers’ last best chance to push their case that the Basel proposal should be watered down or scrapped. In prepared remarks, Dimon said the proposal “would unjustifiably and unnecessarily increase capital requirements by 20-25 percent for the largest banks.” That would force lenders to pull back, creating “a harmful ripple effect on the economy, markets, businesses of all sizes and American households,” he said.The proposal would have an inflationary side effect, driving up the cost of credit for its clients, Solomon warned in his prepared remarks, which in turn “will likely get passed on to consumers.”The pushback comes as America’s lenders contend with a slew of challenges. High interest rates and a slowing economy have put the crimp on their core lending business. Banking watchdogs, meanwhile, remain concerned about lenders’ exposure to the pandemic-hit commercial real estate sector.Don’t expect progressive senators to be swayed. In a statement, the committee wrote that “while Wall Street banks argue that stronger rules to protect the public will be too expensive, they are actually making trillions of dollars in profits every year and paying C.E.O.s several hundred times more than their median workers.”Europe races to regulate A.I. The first big regulatory regime for artificial intelligence could be signed as early as Wednesday, with European Union lawmakers in the final stages of debating the A.I. Act. The rules wouldn’t take effect for 18 months, but they represent an effort by governments to catch up with the development of a transformative technology that has exploded into the public consciousness since the introduction of ChatGPT a year ago.Europe has long been one of the most aggressive tech regulators. From data privacy to tech sector M&A, the E.U. has often been ahead of others. But the fast pace of A.I. development is testing regulators’ ability to keep up. The A.I. Act was introduced in 2021, but the tech has advanced significantly during that time. Other governments are deliberating their own rules. President Biden issued an executive order in October focused on A.I. and national security; Japan is drafting nonbinding guidelines for the technology and China has imposed restrictions on certain types of A.I. Last month, Britain hosted an A.I. safety summit for tech leaders and policymakers that included the U.S. and China.E.U. lawmakers are trying to impose guardrails without killing innovation. Some say the rules need to address the underlying technology, and are pushing to stop the use of A.I. in biometric surveillance.But some member states want opt-out options. Last month, France, Germany and Italy came out against strict regulation of general-purpose A.I. models for fear of hurting domestic start-ups. Some member states also want exceptions for national security, defense and military purposes.The latest draft of the A.I. Act focuses on “high risk” uses, including law enforcement, school admissions and hiring. Some applications, like chatbots and software that creates manipulated images, will have to make clear to people that they are A.I.-generated. Congress takes on campus battles The presidents of Harvard, M.I.T. and the University of Pennsylvania faced a congressional grilling on Tuesday over a growing wave of hate speech and antisemitism on their campuses that has angered some business leaders and prominent donors since the war in Gaza began in October.College leaders admitted to difficulties in confronting hate and preserving free speech. “I know that I have not always gotten it right,” Claudine Gay, Harvard’s president, told the House Committee on Education and the Workforce. She has come under intense pressure from influential professors, graduates and donors, including the former Treasury secretary Larry Summers and Pershing Square Capital Management’s Bill Ackman, to do more to protect students.After the hearing, Ackman called on all three to “resign in disgrace.” Summers said that Gay’s ideals were “just the right ones,” but that “there’s a lot of work to do.”Preserving students’ safety and civil rights has become a national focus. The Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights recently opened an investigation into complaints of antisemitism at Harvard. That came after a series of federal civil rights investigations into complaints of discrimination against students at some of America’s most prestigious universities, including Harvard, Penn and Columbia. Some schools have formed new task forces to address the growing concerns.The financial stakes are high. Schools that run afoul of civil rights laws could risk losing federal funding. Meanwhile, major university donors are using their clout to call attention to the rise of antisemitism on campus, pushing schools to do more to address the matter. These wealthy alumni are urging others to fight back, too.“We have our own war here in the U.S.,” Marc Rowan, the C.E.O. of Apollo Global Management, said at a recent fund-raiser. Rowan, who has criticized his alma mater, Penn, for its handling of antisemitism, renewed his call to hold the institutions accountable, “financially or otherwise.”THE SPEED READ DealsShares in British American Tobacco tumbled after the company announced a $31.5 billion write-down of its U.S. cigarette brands, six years after buying Reynolds American for $49 billion. (NYT)Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence start-up, xAI, filed to raise up to $1 billion in new capital. (The Verge)How Jeff Ubben’s second act, as an environmentally minded activist investor, fell apart. (FT)PolicyChina’s leader, Xi Jinping, is conducting a purge of the top ranks of the country’s political system, a move that could have implications for the global economy and regional stability. (Politico)A group of nuns that owns a stake in Smith & Wesson sued the gun maker, arguing that its sales and marketing strategy for the AR-15 rifle is putting shareholders’ investments at risk. (WSJ)Best of the restHollywood actors ratified their union’s labor deal with movie and television studios, but some had reservations about its guardrails on the use of artificial intelligence. (NYT)Israeli securities regulators said they found no trading abnormalities ahead of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attacks, after researchers said they had found a spike in short-selling. (Bloomberg)Is it time to give up vinyl records in the name of climate change? (Guardian)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      How Trump Would Govern

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      Donald Trump’s threats for another presidency are deeply alarming, historians and legal experts say.“2024 is the final battle,” Donald Trump has said.“Either they win or we win. And if they win, we no longer have a country,” he has argued.“Our country,” he has said, “is going to hell.”As he campaigns to reclaim the presidency, Trump has intensified his rhetoric of cataclysm and apocalypse, beyond even the tenor of his previous two campaigns. He has claimed that “the blood-soaked streets of our once great cities are cesspools of violent crimes” and that Americans are living in “the most dangerous time in the history of our country.”More specifically, he has promised to use the powers of the federal government to punish people he perceives to be his critics and opponents, including the Biden family, district attorneys, journalists and “the deep state.” He has suggested that Mark Milley, a retired top general, deserves the death penalty. Trump has called President Biden “an enemy of the state” and Nancy Pelosi “the Wicked Witch.” He has accused former President Barack Obama — “Barack Hussein Obama,” in Trump’s telling — of directing Biden to admit “terrorists and terrorist sympathizers” into the U.S.Trump’s threats, often justified with lies, are deeply alarming, historians and legal experts say. He has repeatedly promised to undermine core parts of American democracy. He has also signaled that, unlike in his first term in the White House, he will avoid appointing aides and cabinet officials who would restrain him.Many Americans have heard only snippets of Trump’s promises. He tends to make them on Truth Social, his niche social media platform, or at campaign events, which have received less media coverage than they did when he first ran for president eight years ago. Yet there is reason to believe that Trump means what he says.“He’s told us what he will do,” Liz Cheney, a member of Congress until her criticism of Trump led to her defeat in a Republican primary, told John Dickerson of CBS News this past weekend. “People who say, ‘Well, if he’s elected, it’s not that dangerous because we have all of these checks and balances’ don’t fully understand the extent to which the Republicans in Congress today have been co-opted.”Not simply policyI understand why many Americans would like to tune out — or deny — the risks facing our democracy. I also understand why many voters are frustrated with the status quo and find Trump’s anti-establishment campaign appealing.Incomes, wealth and life expectancy have been stagnant for decades for millions of people. The Covid pandemic and its aftermath contributed to a rise in both inflation and societal disorder. School absenteeism has risen sharply. The murder rate and homelessness have both increased. Undocumented immigration has soared during Biden’s presidency.But it’s worth being clear about what Trump is promising to do. He isn’t merely calling for policy solutions that some Americans support and others oppose. He is promising to undo foundations of American democracy and to rule as authoritarians in other countries have. He is also leading the race for the Republican nomination by a wide margin, and running even with, or slightly ahead of, Biden in general election polls.Today’s newsletter is the first of several in coming months meant to help you understand what a second Trump presidency would look like. For starters, I recommend that you read what Trump is saying in his own words. My colleagues Ian Prasad Philbrick and Lyna Bentahar have been tracking his campaign appearances and social media posts, and have compiled a list of his most extreme statements.I also recommend an ongoing series of Times stories by Jonathan Swan, Charlie Savage and Maggie Haberman, which previews a potential second Trump presidency. Among the subjects: legal policy, immigration and the firing of career government employees. The most recent story looks at why he is more likely to achieve his aims in a second term than he was in his first.“So many of the guardrails that existed to stop him are gone or severely weakened,” Maggie told me. “That includes everything from internal appointees to a changed Congress, where he has outlasted his few Republican critics there.”What democracy needsThe new issue of The Atlantic magazine is devoted to this subject as well, with 24 writers imagining a second Trump term. “Our concern with Trump is not that he is a Republican, or that he embraces — when convenient — certain conservative ideas,” Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor in chief, writes. “We believe that a democracy needs, among other things, a strong liberal party and a strong conservative party in order to flourish.” The problem, Goldberg explains, is that Trump is “an antidemocratic demagogue.”Regular readers of this newsletter know that I agree with Goldberg about the value of both conservative and liberal ideas, and that I find it uncomfortable to write about the likely nominee of a major party in such harsh terms. In 2024, we will also cover Biden’s record and campaign with appropriate skepticism.But it would be wishful thinking to portray Trump as anything other than antidemocratic. He keeps telling the country what he intends to do if he returns to the White House in 2025. It’s worth listening.Related: “The United States is heading into its greatest political and constitutional crisis since the Civil War,” Robert Kagan, a conservative who has advised both Republicans and Democrats, warns in The Washington Post.THE LATEST NEWSIsrael-Hamas WarIsrael has started an invasion of southern Gaza, satellite images show. Troops appear to be closing in on its main city, Khan Younis.The Israeli military has bombarded Gaza with airstrikes since the cease-fire ended. The U.N. said civilians had few safe places left to go.Extensive evidence, including videos, indicates that Hamas used sexual violence during its Oct. 7 attacks. Jewish women’s groups say the world has not paid sufficient attention.A rocket launched from Gaza on Oct. 7 hit an Israeli military base believed to house nuclear-capable missiles, a Times investigation found.After Iranian-backed proxy forces appear to have launched attacks in the Red Sea, the U.S. and its allies are discussing how to guard ships traveling there.A White House spokesman said a protest outside an Israeli restaurant in Philadelphia was antisemitic.Chinese EconomyUnfinished construction by China Evergrande.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesWhen China’s housing bubble burst, the property giant Evergrande defaulted on its debt. Its collapse was accelerated by questionable accounting.China’s credit outlook was dropped to negative by Moody’s, the ratings agency, which cited concern over rising debt and the cost of possible bailouts.War in UkraineUkrainian soldiers.Tyler Hicks/The New York TimesThe U.S. will run out of money for Ukraine by the end of the year if Congress does not approve more aid, the White House said.Evan Gershkovich, a journalist for The Wall Street Journal, has been in Russian jail for more than 250 days and is still awaiting trial.2024 ElectionTomorrow’s Republican presidential primary debate will feature only four candidates: Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie.Some anti-Trump Republicans want Christie to drop out and back Haley as an alternative to Trump.Doug Burgum, the Republican governor of North Dakota, ended his presidential campaign.A super PAC backing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid for president plans to spend millions to get him on the ballot in several battleground states.Talk more about abortion and less about Trump: Democratic governors — almost all of them more popular in their states than Biden — have advice for the president’s campaign.BusinessChatGPT’s release in 2022 prompted a desperate scramble among tech firms, and alarm from some people who helped invent it.23andMe, the genetic testing company, said hackers obtained the personal data of nearly seven million profiles.Other Big StoriesThe 2023 hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific ended. The season had an above average number of storms, fueled by extremely warm ocean temperatures.A former U.S. ambassador is accused of working for years as a secret agent for Cuba as he rose up the ranks at the State Department.The U.N. said that hundreds of people were believed to be stranded on boats in the Andaman Sea, and that most were believed to be Rohingya.Brain implants helped five people in their recovery after trauma. This may be the first effective therapy for chronic brain injuries.OpinionsThis conservative wonk is happy when J.D. Vance and Elizabeth Warren work together, Jane Coaston explains.Americans trust police officers who solve crime. To do that, departments need more investigators, Jeff Asher argues.The bigger airlines get, the worse they become, Tim Wu writes.Here is a column by Michelle Goldberg on antisemitism.MORNING READSThe Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta.Andrew Jogi for The New York TimesTaking flight: Behind the scenes at the world’s largest hot-air balloon festival.Food fraud: European officials seized nearly 70,000 gallons of “unfit” olive oil.That “meh” feeling: Persistent depressive disorder is underdiagnosed.Hormone difference: Women get more headaches than men.First cruise? Here’s how to prepare for smooth sailing.Lives Lived: For more than a decade, Robert H. Precht produced “The Ed Sullivan Show,” the Sunday night variety extravaganza that brought singers, comedians, bands, jugglers and more into millions of living rooms. He died at 93.SPORTSN.F.L.: Cincinnati backup quarterback Jake Browning led the 6-6 Bengals to an improbable overtime win against the 8-4 Jacksonville Jaguars.New York Jets: Zach Wilson is reluctant to return to a starting role as quarterback, and the Jets are considering a change.College football: This end of this four-team playoff can’t come soon enough, Stewart Mandel writes — not just because of snubs like Florida State, but because so many other great teams have nothing to play for.Transfer portal: More than 1,000 college football players entered the portal yesterday, the highest one-day total since its inception.ARTS AND IDEASBest of 2023: Reggie Ugwu advises that you read his list of the best podcasts of the year not as an objective ranking — tastes vary too much for that — but as a Michelin Guide to podcasts, leading you to some great new shows. Among of his favorites:Say More With Dr? Sheila, Amy Poehler’s hilarious, unscripted riff on couples therapy podcasts and the modern relationship guru.The Sound, a twisty investigation into the phenomenon known as Havana Syndrome, and the sound heard by diplomats who later reported cognitive injuries.The Turning: Room of Mirrors, a 10-part series on the elite, high-pressure world of the New York City Ballet.More on cultureThe assault case against Jonathan Majors, the actor, began with a debate: Was he an abuser or a victim? The Cut explains what you need to know about the trial.Tyler Goodson, a key figure in the popular “S-Town” podcast series, was shot and killed during a standoff with the police in Alabama, the authorities said.THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …Linda Xiao for The New York TimesSimmer meatballs in a lemony, spinach-filled broth.Weatherize your home.Get a flu shot. (It’s not too late.)Start new holiday traditions.GAMESHere is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were inaptly and pliantly.And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidSign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. More