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    Donald Trump Indicted

    He is the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges.A former American president has been indicted.A Manhattan grand jury voted yesterday to indict Donald Trump. The case relates to his involvement in paying hush money to a porn star to bury a sex scandal in the final days of his 2016 presidential campaign.There is still a lot we don’t know, including the exact charges. The indictment is under seal and will likely be released in the coming days. Trump has not yet been arrested, a delay that is common in white-collar criminal cases. He is expected to turn himself in on Tuesday and will probably travel to New York from his home in Florida. (Here’s more on what to expect when Trump is taken into custody.)Regardless, a conviction in this case would not legally prevent Trump from continuing to run for president. An impeachment conviction could have barred Trump from future federal office, but the Senate acquitted him in both of his trials there.Trump continued to paint the case as partisan and biased last night. “This is political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history,” he said in a statement. He has long feared the possibility of being arrested, according to my colleague Maggie Haberman.Today’s newsletter will explain the allegations against Trump, why some legal analysts applaud the charges but also why even some of his critics worry about the potential consequences of an indictment.What’s in the case?Even though the indictment is still under seal and the specific charges remain unknown, reporters have learned the broad strokes of the investigation.One possibility is that the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, is combining state laws to accuse Trump of falsifying business records. The prosecution would focus on Trump’s reimbursements to his lawyer at the time, Michael Cohen, for the $130,000 payment to the porn star, Stormy Daniels.A charge of falsifying business records is common in white-collar cases. The unusual part of the charge would be how it’s elevated to a felony from a misdemeanor. In New York, falsifying records can rise to a felony if the fraud helped commit or conceal another intended crime.In this case, Bragg could argue that Trump falsified records to cover up the hush money in the final weeks of the 2016 race, potentially making it an illegal campaign contribution. Supporters of Trump’s prosecution argue that a successful conviction would show that no one, not even a president, is above the law. “If the rule of law is to be applied equally — & it must — it must apply to the powerful as it does to everyone else,” tweeted Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat.Prosecutors try creative tactics all the time, and sometimes they work. But some experts worry that a case involving a former president is not the time for creative tactics. “Is this really the case where you want to be stepping out on a limb legally or factually in your charges, given the weight of this politically, socially, culturally and for democracy?” said Rebecca Roiphe, a professor at New York Law School and a former prosecutor.Is there precedent?Presidents have gotten in legal trouble before. Many historians believe Richard Nixon would have been charged over the Watergate scandal had his successor, Gerald Ford, not pardoned him. And Bill Clinton, in a deal to avoid prosecution after he left office, admitted to lying under oath about his affair with Monica Lewinsky, paid a fine and agreed to give up his law license.Trump also faces other investigations — into his involvement in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents.There is also one less serious example of a president being arrested: A Washington, D.C., police officer arrested Ulysses S. Grant in 1872 for speeding in his horse and buggy before letting him go.Will it stick?Creative legal tactics are inherently risky. Courts typically draw on past cases to decide current ones. But Trump’s case is the first of its kind, both in terms of charging a former president and potentially attempting a new legal strategy.It also has weaknesses. In 2012, federal prosecutors dropped charges against John Edwards, a former Democratic presidential candidate, after jurors voted to acquit him of one charge and deadlocked on others. In that case, prosecutors argued Edwards violated federal campaign finance laws to pay for a scheme to cover up an affair. The jury evidently did not believe there was enough evidence to tie Edwards to the scheme.In Trump’s case, some conditions do favor the prosecution. It will come before a judge and jury in a very Democratic city. And the judge who is expected to preside over the case, Juan Merchan, previously oversaw the conviction of Trump’s family business.More Trump newsTrump and his aides were caught off guard by the grand jury’s decision. They believed an indictment was weeks away or might not happen at all.The larger story of Trump’s indictment is that of a country heading down a road it has never traveled before, Peter Baker writes.While the indictment is a first for the U.S., such cases have become fairly common globally.Republican leaders defended Trump, with one prominent supporter suggesting his mug shot should double as a 2024 campaign poster.Fox News hosts called the indictment politically motivated and suggested it might lead to unrest.Some former Trump Organization employees cheered the latest developments over text messages. Follow our updates.Commentary“A pattern of disregard for the law often leads to a criminal indictment, and that is the outcome Mr. Trump now faces,” The Times’s editorial board writes.“Should state officials bring a state claim that depends on an accusation of having violated federal law when federal charges were never filed? My conclusion is no,” David French writes in Times Opinion.Five former South Korean presidents have faced prosecution. It helped strengthen the country’s democracy, Nicholas Kristofargues in Times Opinion.“Save the mug shot for Georgia, the handcuffs for Jan. 6. Those were real offenses against the country,” Peggy Noonan writes in The Wall Street Journal.THE LATEST NEWSInternationalTurkish lawmakers voting yesterday.Burhan Ozbilici/Associated PressTurkey approved Finland’s bid to join NATO, the final hurdle to membership. The move is a setback for Russia.By arresting an American journalist and accusing him of espionage, Russia is isolating itself further from the West.Mexico arrested five people over a fire at a migrant detention center that killed at least 39.PoliticsWealth funds in the U.A.E. and Qatar invested hundreds of millions of dollars with Jared Kushner’s private equity firm.A Democratic state senator in Nebraska has been filibustering for weeks to block a bill that would ban transition-related medical treatment for minors.A federal judge struck down an Obamacare provision that requires insurers to cover preventive care. The Biden administration will probably appeal.Other Big StoriesThunderstorms, high winds and tornadoes are forecast across the Midwest and parts of the South today.Missteps by the police contributed to the death toll in Canada’s worst mass shooting, when a gunman killed more than 20 people in 2020, an investigation found.A jury ruled in Gwyneth Paltrow’s favor in a 2016 skiing accident, finding that the man who sued her was at fault. OpinionsMany Russian men view fighting in Ukraine as a chance to fix their lives, Marlene Laruelle and Ivan Grek write.Israel’s political crisis is a chance to strengthen its democracy by writing a constitution, Yuval Levin says.MORNING READSMeeting etiquette: Is it rude to knit at work? It could help you focus.“It’s American football?”: Yankees caps are everywhere in Brazil, even if people don’t know the meaning of what they’re wearing.Modern Love: When climate change melts your relationship.A morning listen: Google’s chief executive discusses the A.I. arms race.Lives Lived: Yang Bing-yi opened a modest shop in Taiwan in 1958. He built it into a dumpling and noodle empire, earning a Michelin star and introducing the soup dumpling to a global audience. Yang died at 96.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICOpening Day attraction: The first at-bat for the Yankees’ Aaron Judge after a magical 2022 — and after signing a megacontract — was perfect: a home run. A singing pitcher: In a surprise to fans and teammates, the Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright took the mic for the national anthem yesterday. A look ahead: See previews for each M.L.B. team.ARTS AND IDEAS Reliving the 1990s.Joe Buglewicz for The New York TimesA dose of ’90s nostalgia At the second annual 90s Con, in Hartford, Conn., attendees perused VHS tapes and Furby tattoos and had a chance to be splashed with Nickelodeon-style slime. Two members of ’N Sync were there, as were stars from “Full House” and “Beverly Hills, 90210.” As millennials start to enter middle age, some find themselves drawn to reliving the decade of their youth. As Shawn O’Connor, 35, who runs a ’90s-themed bar on Long Island, said: “It makes me happy, and I want to feel happy because I’m old.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJohnny Miller for The New York TimesFor the fluffiest results, mix this banana-and-buttermilk pancake batter minimally.What to Listen toA playlist for the early weeks of spring.What to WatchIn “Kill Boksoon,” an assassin must choose between the murderous career she loves and the daughter she’s been hiding it from.Late NightThe hosts discussed Trump’s indictment.News QuizHow well did you keep up with the news this week?Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was clickable. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Line, to Brits (five letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — GermanP.S. An earthquake devastated Managua, Nicaragua’s capital, 92 years ago today.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is about Trump.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. More

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    Obamacare Keeps Winning

    Its North Carolina victory is a sign of larger changes.The government benefits began their existence as objects of partisan rancor and harsh criticism. Eventually, though, they became so popular that politicians of both parties promised to protect them.It was true of Social Security and Medicare. And now the pattern seems to be repeating itself with Obamacare.Consider what has happened recently in North Carolina: Only a decade after the state’s Republican politicians described the law as dangerous and refused to sign up for its expansion of Medicaid, Republicans and Democrats came together to pass such an expansion. The Republican-controlled House in North Carolina passed the bill 87 to 24, while the Republican-controlled Senate passed it 44 to 2.“Wow, have things changed,” Jonathan Cohn wrote in a HuffPost piece explaining how the turnabout happened.Obamacare — the country’s largest expansion of health insurance since Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 — is still not as widely accepted as those programs. North Carolina became the 40th state to agree to expand Medicaid under Obamacare, which means that 10 states still have not, including two of the largest, Texas and Florida. In those states, more than 3.5 million adults lack health insurance as a result.But the list of states signing up for the program seems to be moving in only one direction: It keeps growing.Source: Kaiser Family Foundation‘Humiliation’In its growing acceptance, Obamacare resembles other major parts of the federal safety net:When Congress was considering Social Security in 1935, conservatives and many business executives bitterly criticized it. One Texas newspaper described Social Security as “a huge sales tax on everybody on behalf of the oldsters.” A Wall Street Journal editorial predicted that the law would eventually be reason for Congress to look back in “humiliation.” Not exactly: Social Security is so popular that it is known as a third rail in American politics.When Congress was debating Medicare in the 1960s, Ronald Reagan — then an actor with a rising political profile — attacked the program as a step toward socialism. If it passed, Reagan warned, “We are going to spend our sunset years telling our children, and our children’s children, what it once was like in America when men were free.” As president, Reagan praised and supported the program.After Congress created Medicaid — a health-insurance program primarily for low-income households — in 1965, some states did not initially join it. Arizona became the last to do so, in 1982.Roberts and McCainIn the initial years after Obamacare’s passage in 2010, it was similarly divisive. Blue states embraced it, while many red states rejected its voluntary Medicaid expansion. In Washington, congressional Republicans and Donald Trump tried to repeal it. Some Republican-appointed judges invalidated parts of it, and every Republican appointee on the Supreme Court except Chief Justice John Roberts voted to scrap the law.Twice, it survived by a single vote — first, by Roberts’s 2012 Supreme Court vote, and then by Senator John McCain’s late-night vote against its repeal in 2017. Since then, however, Obamacare has been gaining Republican support.The next year, voters in Idaho, Nebraska and Utah — red states, all — passed ballot initiatives expanding Medicaid. Oklahoma, Missouri and South Dakota have since done so. Montana’s state legislature has also approved an expansion.American Medical Association Communications DivisionIn 2019, Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, a Democrat, narrowly won election in a Republican state by pledging to protect an earlier Medicaid expansion. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, also a Democrat, became governor in a 2016 upset partly by campaigning in favor of an expansion — and was able to sign one this week.(Before it takes effect, Cooper and the legislature must agree on a state budget.)These developments are a sign of the law’s growing popularity. And that popularity isn’t especially mysterious: In a country with high levels of economic inequality and large numbers of people without health insurance, Obamacare has increased taxes on the affluent to subsidize health care for poor and middle-class families. At root, it is an effort to reduce inequality.Winning the middleEven with its flaws — including its often complicated process for signing up for insurance — the law has achieved many of its aims. The number of Americans without health insurance has plummeted. In states that have refused the Medicaid expansion, by contrast, rural hospitals are struggling even more than elsewhere because they do not receive the law’s subsidies for care.Greenwood Leflore Hospital — in the Mississippi Delta — is an example. It recently closed its intensive-care unit and maternity ward, as our colleague Sharon LaFraniere has reported. Nationwide, states that did not quickly accept Medicaid expansion have accounted for almost three-quarters of rural hospital closures between 2010 and 2021, according to the American Hospital Association.Similar problems in North Carolina were a reason that Republicans there reconsidered their opposition to Medicaid expansion. “We had these people coming down to Raleigh, farmers, business owners, people from rural areas, they were advocating, telling stories,” one Republican state representative told HuffPost.Many Republicans still oppose Obamacare, and some hard-right members of Congress also favor cuts to Medicaid — as well as to Medicare and Social Security. In a country as polarized as the United States, there isn’t much true political consensus. But Obamacare has won over the political middle more quickly than seemed likely not so long ago.Related: The number of people signing up for insurance through Obamacare has surged over the past two years, partly because of a new subsidies signed by President Biden.THE LATEST NEWSPoliticsMike Pence must testify to the grand jury investigating Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, a judge ruled.Republicans are trying to create obstacles to voting for college students, who lean Democratic.An election for a swing seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has become an expensive political fight.A.I. is already affecting the 2024 elections, producing fake images of Trump getting arrested and videos that mimic Biden’s voice.Migrant DeathsA mourner in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.Go Nakamura for The New York TimesAt least 38 people died in a fire at a migrant detention center in Mexico, near El Paso, Texas. The fire started after a protest.U.S. policies have created overcrowding and desperation at the border.BusinessLawmakers grilled federal regulators who were supposed to supervise Silicon Valley Bank before it collapsed.Prosecutors added a foreign bribery charge to the list of crimes already pending against the FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.Alibaba Group, China’s e-commerce giant, is splitting into six business groups.Other Big StoriesThe shooter who killed six people at a Nashville school this week had legally purchased seven guns recently, the police said.Myanmar’s military dissolved the political party of the imprisoned opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.Russia sent a 13-year-old girl to an orphanage after her father criticized the war in Ukraine.An appeals court reinstated the murder conviction of Adnan Syed, the “Serial” podcast subject who was freed after more than 20 years in prison, and ordered a new hearing.OpinionsThe success of Israel’s protests suggests that its democracy is healthier than many feared, Bret Stephens writes.How can doctors better discuss dying with their patients? Start by trusting them, Dr. Sunita Puri writes.MORNING READS“La Ronde Enfantine,” painted circa 1862.The Fitzwilliam Museum, CambridgeStolen painting: He lost a Courbet when he fled the Nazis. His heirs are getting it back.15-minute city: A professor is getting death threats for his walkable urban design plan.A discovery: He solved a math problem by finding what’s known as an einstein.Midday snooze: Can a nap make up for a bad night of sleep?Advice from Wirecutter: Pick the best VPN.Lives Lived: Born into poverty in the segregated South, Randall Robinson galvanized Americans against South African apartheid and advocated on behalf of Haitian refugees. He died at 81.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICN.C.A.A. women’s tournament: Iowa vs. South Carolina is the Final Four matchup many wanted — and the one the sport deserves.A potential $6 billion deal: Multiple bidders have submitted offers to buy the Washington Commanders, including a group that includes Magic Johnson as an investor. Patriots won’t pursue Jackson: New England is out of the Lamar Jackson stakes, and plans to stick with Mac Jones as its quarterback.ARTS AND IDEAS The pistachio Suprême croissant from Lafayette.Julia Gartland for The New York TimesThe ever-changing croissantApparently there’s no end to the forms a croissant can take.Ten years after the Cronut, pastry chefs are twisting croissant dough into pinwheels and squiggles, tying it in knots and stacking it into cubes. They are turning it into breakfast cereal, tie-dyeing it and, in one case, wrapping it around baguettes.When the baker Scott Cioe wanted to lure crowds to Lafayette, a Manhattan restaurant, he turned to croissant dough, coiling it into a photogenic swirl he called the Suprême. “We eat with our eyes as well as our hands,” Cioe told The Times.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJulia Gartland for The New York TimesTry cooking pasta like risotto, adding liquid gradually so that the noodles absorb it completely. The result is a creamy, rich dish.What to WatchRob Lowe and John Owen Lowe star in “Unstable,” a new Netflix series that exaggerates their barbed father-son dynamic.What to Listen toLana Del Rey’s ninth album asks big, earnest questions and isn’t afraid to get messy.Late NightStephen Colbert called the Nashville shooting horrible and familiar.Now Time to PlayThe pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were calculator and coloratura. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Really awesome (four letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidP.S. Nicholas Nehamas is joining The Times from The Miami Herald, to cover Ron DeSantis.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is about Israel.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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    Looking Back at Her World War II Secret

    Ruth Mirsky, who turns 100 today, was a code breaker in the U.S. Navy. “It was very hush-hush,” she remembered.Good morning. It’s Wednesday. We’ll meet a World War II code breaker who turns 100 today. We’ll also look at a filing by Representative George Santos that suggests he is already considering running for another term in Congress.Michelle V. Agins/The New York TimesSomewhere in Rockaway Park, N.Y., is a World War II code breaker who is finally talking.Ruth Mirsky, who turns 100 today, did not say much about breaking codes. She gave almost nothing away, saying things like “it was top-secret work” and “I had a very small part in it.” And “we worked in shifts. We worked around the clock — daytime, nighttime.” Not a word about encryption machines or eureka moments deciphering enemy messages long ago.Mirsky’s birthday comes 80 years after she enlisted in the Navy and became a WAVE, the acronym for Women Accepted for Voluntary Emergency Services. She was promptly sent to Washington, where she became one of several thousand women scrambling to unscramble messages intercepted from the Japanese and German military.She worked in the library unit at what became known as the Naval Annex, typing incoming messages on file cards, categorizing them and noting repetitions — recurring letters or phrases that might have been potential clues to encryption. Others have said it was mind-numbing duty, an excruciating search for patterns and ciphers among monotonous columns of numbers and letters, but Mirsky still sounded fascinated.“It was a whole new thing,” she said. “For me it was, anyway.”Their diligence paid off. “Together, this group of Navy women broke and rebroke the fleet code” and “helped keep track of the movements of the Imperial Japanese Navy,” the author Liza Mundy wrote in her book “Code Girls: The Untold Story of the American Women Code Breakers of World War II.The women were instructed not to talk about their secret wartime lives — “it was very hush-hush,” Mirsky told me. When she visited her former boss in New York, she recalled, “he asked me, ‘What are you doing there? The F.B.I. was asking all kinds of questions to find out what kind of a person you were.’”She added: “I couldn’t even tell my fiancé.”We’ll get to him in a moment. Mirsky worked in an installation in Washington that was just off Ward Circle, “which taxi drivers started calling WAVES Circle,” Mundy wrote.Around the time Mirsky arrived in 1943, that installation was a base of operations for 1,500 women, along with just over 900 male officers and enlisted men, according to Mundy, who wrote that by early the next year, there were almost twice as many women and far fewer men. But, in what the writer Meryl Gordon called a “pre-Betty Friedan moment in American life when institutional discrimination was the norm,” the Navy’s pay scale favored the men.Mirsky did not mention that last week. She talked about two brothers, David, whom she had been dating, and Harry, who had been stationed in South Dakota as a radar specialist. “Harry came to see his brother before David’s unit went overseas,” she said. Harry had been injured when he was thrown from a jeep; at one point he had been in a body cast. With David off to the front lines, “Harry asked me if he could write to me from South Dakota, so that’s how it started,” she said.About six months later, Harry’s unit was transferred to Fort Dix, in New Jersey. He remained stateside when the unit went overseas because of the accident. He managed to go to Washington regularly — once without a pass, for which he was punished when he returned to Fort Dix, she said.You can guess what happened. Harry became the fiancé, then the husband. They were married for 39 years, until his death in 1984.She is a regular at a JASA Older Adult Center not far from her apartment center. It organized a birthday party last week, a few days early. “You can’t put 100 candles on a cake,” Mirsky told me, but she blew out 10 or so on the strawberry shortcake that was served. Assemblywoman Stacey Pheffer Amato, who represents the area, brought a proclamation and tweeted photos.“I’ve had a happy life,” Mirsky told me. “I feel I’ve done what I wanted, actually.” She mentioned her two children, Stuart Mirsky and Debra Aluisio, who had joined her at the JASA center. She mentioned her five grandchildren and 10 great-grandchildren. She double-checked those numbers with her son, counting as they named the names.She talked about playing Scrabble — on an iPad.“It’s a good thing for my mind, I guess,” she said.“Very similar to the codes,” said Aluisio.WeatherIt’s a cloudy, windy day near the mid-40s. The evening is breezy and mostly clear, with temps around the mid-30s.ALTERNATE-SIDE PARKINGIn effect until April 6 (Passover).The latest Metro newsJefferson Siegel for The New York TimesJail supervisor convicted: A jail supervisor who walked away from an inmate after he had hanged himself was convicted of criminally negligent homicide, capping a trial that pointed to the brutal conditions inside New York City’s jails and the persistence of inmate suicides.A city councilman’s apartment hunt: Chi Ossé became the youngest member of the New York City Council when he was sworn in 14 months ago. Now, he faces a challenge: finding an apartment in his district. He called the search “tiring, treacherous, and competitive.”A police department’s troubled history: Najee Seabrooks was shot and killed by police officers in Paterson, N.J., after calling 911 to report that he was experiencing a mental health crisis. A coalition of groups requested a Justice Department inquiry into what it called “widespread unlawful and unconstitutional conduct” by the Paterson police.Santos signals he might run againJonathan Ernst/ReutersLittle more than two months after he assumed office, George Santos signaled that he might want a second term.Santos, the embattled Republican from Long Island who is under scrutiny for lies about his background and questions about his finances, submitted paperwork to the Federal Election Commission suggesting that he may run for re-election in 2024.My colleague Michael Gold writes that the filing does not necessarily mean that Santos will run, but it does allow him to continue to raise money and spend it on campaign-related expenses, including paying back roughly $700,000 that he lent to his campaign last year.He can also use money he raises for any potential legal fees involving some of the investigations he is facing. Federal prosecutors have been examining his campaign finances and personal business dealings, and last month the House Ethics Committee opened its own inquiry.After The New York Times reported that Santos had lied about graduating from college, working for prestigious Wall Street firms and managing an extensive real estate portfolio, Santos acknowledged that he fabricated parts of his résumé and his biography.But he has denied criminal wrongdoing and has resisted calls to resign, even as some Republicans questioned whether he could serve constituents. Republican officials in Nassau County have said they would avoid taking constituent problems to his office whenever they could. Ten House Republicans have called on Santos to resign, and a poll in January by Siena College found that 78 percent of the voters in his district wanted him to give up his seat, including 71 percent of the Republicans who were questioned.METROPOLITAN diaryClocking inDear Diary:When I was in my early 20s, I worked at a cafe in Park Slope. I used to walk to work in the darkness at 4:30 a.m., lacing up my black sneakers in my Clinton Hill apartment and schlepping past halal trucks on my way as they set up for the day.I always bought a grapefruit from the bodega across the street before starting my shift. The man at the counter would greet me with a wide smile, its warmth washing away the tired feelings left over from the morning trek.Clocking out? I’d ask.Yes, he would say. Clocking in?Yes, I’d say.And then each day, like a mantra, he would singsong to me: “You are beginning your day … and I am ending mine!”— Annabelle LewisIllustrated by Agnes Lee. Send submissions here and read more Metropolitan Diary here.Glad we could get together here. See you tomorrow. — J.B.P.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword and Spelling Bee. You can find all our puzzles here.Melissa Guerrero and Ed Shanahan contributed to New York Today. You can reach the team at nytoday@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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    The Abortion Pill Fight

    Since Roe v. Wade ended, the battle over legal abortion has largely shifted to access to pills.Since the end of Roe v. Wade last June, access to abortion pills has muted some of the effect of the severe restrictions on abortion that 14 states have imposed. Abortion opponents have responded by trying to reduce access to those pills. The resulting struggle has become the main battle to watch in the post-Roe landscape.Today’s newsletter examines the latest developments — including a court ruling expected soon — and explains what’s likely to happen next.How pill access grewThe most effective and safest method of medication abortion requires two drugs. The first, mifepristone, ends the pregnancy. The second, misoprostol, causes cramping and bleeding to empty the uterus, like a miscarriage. In approving this regimen in 2000, the F.D.A. imposed restrictions on mifepristone because of questions then about its safety. Among other rules, patients had to visit a clinic, doctor’s office or hospital to receive the medication.In 2021, during the pandemic and after President Biden took office, the F.D.A. lifted the in-person requirement. The shift opened a new avenue for telemedicine abortions. In about 30 states, women could legally end their pregnancies at home, with pills prescribed through an online consultation and mailed to them. If they had questions, they could call a private national hotline to talk to medical professionals.After the Supreme Court overturned Roe last year, demand surged for abortion pills by mail. An international organization, Aid Access, provided prescriptions for the pills from European doctors, often filled in India, to patients in states with bans. Overseas pharmacies, advertising online, also ship abortion pills without a prescription to every state.These offshore routes to access, which operate in a legal gray area in states with abortion bans, will probably remain open. But they carry potential legal risks for women and it can take a few weeks for the drugs to arrive from overseas, a delay that can create problems since medication abortion is more effective and less likely to cause complications early in pregnancy.How opponents are fighting backOpponents of abortion have a bold counterstrategy. They want to block the use of mifepristone not only in states with abortion bans but also nationwide.In November, anti-abortion organizations and doctors sued in Texas to challenge the F.D.A.’s approval of medication abortion 23 years ago. They argue that mifepristone is unsafe. In fact, research has clearly established the safety and efficacy of the F.D.A.’s approved regimen. Serious complications are possible but rare. So, on the merits, the suit may seem far-fetched.But the plaintiffs made sure to file suit (a practice some experts call “judge shopping”) in a division of a Federal District Court with one judge, a Trump appointee named Matthew Kacsmaryk who has longstanding views against abortion. If he blocks the F.D.A.’s approval, it would be unprecedented, experts said in an amicus brief.The drugstore battleSeparate from the Texas case, the national divide over abortion is playing out in pharmacies.In January, Walgreens, CVS and other companies said they would apply for a newly available certification from the F.D.A. to dispense both drugs in states where abortion remains legal. But 21 Republican attorneys general — including four in states where abortion is still legal — threatened legal action against the pharmacy chains. Walgreens promised not to provide the pills within those states.The chains see an opportunity for another new market. Their interest signals that medication abortion is becoming mainstream. In large parts of the country, that’s unwelcome.What’s nextOther lawsuits are trying to protect access to abortion pills. One, filed by states where Democrats are in power, asks a judge to affirm the F.D.A.’s approval of mifepristone and remove the remaining restrictions on the medication. Another, by a U.S. manufacturer of the medication, is challenging state bans on the pill.For now, mifepristone and misoprostol remain widely and quickly available in states where abortion is legal. And the medications can be obtained through avenues like Aid Access, with a delay, in states where abortion is not legal.Taken together, the drugs are more than 95 percent effective, research shows. Alternatively, people can take only misoprostol in higher doses, but this method is 88 percent effective, according to a study in the U.S. published last month, and is also more likely to cause side effects like nausea and diarrhea.A ruling from Judge Kacsmaryk could come any day. If he issues a nationwide injunction to block the provision of mifepristone, his ruling could increase health risks and physical discomfort for women.“The Texas lawsuit is based on the false claim that mifepristone is unsafe and leads to a high need for physician intervention,” Abigail Aiken, one author of the new study, said. “And yet, if we move to a miso-alone protocol, the need for physician intervention will, if anything, be increased.”A nationwide injunction would be immediately appealed. It’s also possible that Judge Kacsmaryk can’t actually stop the legal provision of mifepristone, at least in the short term, three law professors argue. Congress set procedures for the F.D.A. to withdraw approval from a drug, and the process takes time to follow. A judge can order a review but shouldn’t have the power to circumvent the rules, the law professors say.The F.D.A. also has a workaround: When the risk is low, the agency can give manufacturers permission to keep distributing products, like some baby formula, which violate the law in some way.It’s a strange idea: a federal agency using its discretion to avoid enforcing a court ruling. But it could also be the only way for women in the U.S. to continue accessing the safest and most effective method of medication abortion — as long as a president who supports abortion access is in office.For moreThe New York Legislature is considering a bill to protect clinicians who mail abortion pills to patients elsewhere.See the states where restrictions on abortion pills could have the most impact.Makena, the only drug aimed at preventing preterm birth, will be pulled from the market after F.D.A. advisers said it largely didn’t help.THE LATEST NEWSInternationalThe Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany.Krisztian Bocsi/BloombergIntelligence suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group sabotaged gas pipelines linking Russia to Western Europe last year. Ukraine’s government denies involvement.Millions of people in France demonstrated against a plan to raise the retirement age. The resistance stems from a commitment to work-life balance.Mexican authorities found four missing Americans: two killed by gunmen, two kidnapped but alive.The Mexican military illegally used surveillance tools against citizens trying to expose its misdeeds.An Israeli raid in the West Bank aimed at arresting a shooting suspect ended in a firefight, killing six Palestinians.PoliticsBiden will propose tax increases for corporations and high earners to reduce deficits over the next decade.“The whole thing seems insane”: More messages from Rupert Murdoch and Fox News hosts reveal their skepticism of Donald Trump’s false claims of a stolen election.House Republicans promoted Tucker Carlson’s report falsely portraying the Jan. 6 attack as largely peaceful, while Senate Republicans condemned it.Oklahoma voters decided against legalizing recreational marijuana.Other Big StoriesTo slow inflation, the Federal Reserve will probably raise interest rates more than projected.The Justice Department sued to block JetBlue Airways from buying Spirit Airlines, saying a merger would reduce competition.“There’s a lot of value to be won or lost”: Tech giants are competing to use A.I. for their benefit.OpinionsPrime Minister Narendra Modi’s war against Kashmiri journalism portends a larger campaign to limit press freedom in India, Anuradha Bhasin writes.ChatGPT is a statistical engine based on big data. True intelligence is creative, explanatory and moral, Noam Chomsky, Ian Roberts and Jeffrey Watumull write.MORNING READSMartin Schneider is a firefighter who moonlights as a pitcher.Nina Riggio for The New York TimesA scrappy nine: The Czech Republic’s roster for the World Baseball Classic is full of guys with regular jobs.No spots: Parking lots are shrinking across the U.S.Keanu Reeves’s latest role: He’s a fungus-killing bacterial compound (sort of).Ask Well: Is cannabis good or bad for sleep?Advice from Wirecutter: These stain-resistant shirts repel almost everything.Lives Lived: David Lindley’s mastery of stringed instruments made him a sought-after sideman in 1970s Los Angeles, and his long association with Jackson Browne won him a degree of stardom. Lindley died at 78.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICJackson hits the market: The Ravens placed a nonexclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, which means the quarterback can field offers from other teams. It’s a big risk for Baltimore.Heels in danger: A microscope is focused on North Carolina this week, as the Tar Heels try to sneak into the N.C.A.A. Tournament.High stakes: Daniel Jones will remain the Giants’ quarterback after agreeing to a four-year, $160 million deal. ARTS AND IDEAS The restored Procuratie Vecchie in Venice.Richard DaviesArchitecture’s top prizeDavid Chipperfield, a British architect known for merging modern spaces with historic buildings, won the Pritzker Prize.The jury cited Chipperfield’s recent restoration of the 16th-century Procuratie Vecchie in Venice, a beloved landmark on St. Mark’s Square, and noted his renovation of the Neues Museum in Berlin, which saved elements of the World War II-damaged building. “With it, Berlin has one of the finest public buildings in Europe,” the Times architecture critic Michael Kimmelman wrote in 2009.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesParmesan cabbage soup, thickened with rice, is nourishing.What to Watch“History of the World, Part II” is a screwball tour of civilization.What to ReadThese new psychological thrillers deliver chills.Late NightStephen Colbert called Kari Lake the “governor of the state of denial.”Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was microfilm. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: On edge (five letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. Iran cut diplomatic ties with Britain after demanding that its government denounce Salman Rushdie and “The Satanic Verses,” The Times reported 34 years ago today.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about the Nord Stream pipelines.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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    Asian Americans, Shifting Right

    The new politics of class in America.The Chinatown area of Sunset Park, Brooklyn, was long a Democratic stronghold. The party’s candidates would often receive more than 70 percent of the vote there. Last year, however, the neighborhood underwent a political transformation.Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee for governor, managed to win Sunset Park’s Chinatown, receiving more votes than Gov. Kathy Hochul. This map, by my colleague Jason Kao, shows the change:Margin of victory in governor’s races in Brooklyn’s Chinatowns More

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    ‘Different From the Other Southerners’: Jimmy Carter’s Relationship With Black America

    How a white politician from the South who once supported segregationist policies eventually won the enduring support of Black voters.ATLANTA — Without Black voters, there would have been no President Jimmy Carter.In 1976, African Americans catapulted the underdog Democrat to the White House with 83 percent support. Four years later, they stuck by him, delivering nearly identical numbers even as many white voters abandoned him in favor of his victorious Republican challenger, Ronald Reagan.This enduring Black support for Mr. Carter illuminates two intertwined and epochal American stories, each of them powered by themes of pragmatism and redemption. One is the story of a white Georgia politician who began his quest for power in the Jim Crow South — a man who, as late as 1970, declared his respect for the arch-segregationist George Wallace in an effort to attract white votes, but whose personal convictions and political ambitions later pushed him to try to change the racist environment in which he had been raised.The other is the story of a historically oppressed people flexing their growing electoral muscle after the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965 removed obstacles to the ballot box. Certainly, for some Black voters, candidate Carter was simply the least bad option. But for others, the elections of 1976 and 1980 were an opportunity to take the measure of this changing white man, recognizing the opportunity he presented, and even his better angels.“His example in Georgia as a representative of the New South, as one of the new governors from the South, was exciting, and it was appealing,” said Representative Sanford Bishop, a Democrat whose Georgia congressional district includes Mr. Carter’s home. “It carried the day in terms of people wanting a fresh moral face for the presidency.”Mr. Carter’s support for Black Americans sheds light on the political evolution of the man, who at 98, is America’s longest living president. (Mr. Carter entered hospice care earlier this month.)Mr. Carter at an event in Georgia during the fall 1976 presidential campaign.Guy DeLort/WWD, via Penske Media, via Getty ImagesMr. Carter greeting supporters in New York City in 1976.Mikki Ansin/Getty ImagesThe foundation of his relationships with Black voters and leaders was built in his home base of Plains, in rural Sumter County, Ga. Its Black residents can recall his efforts to maintain and then later resist the racist policies and practices that targeted the majority Black community.Jonathan Alter, in his 2020 biography “His Very Best: Jimmy Carter, a Life,” noted that Mr. Carter, as a school board member, had made a number of moves to accommodate or uphold the local segregationist system of the 1950s, at one point trying to shift resources from Black schools to white schools in the name of sound fiscal management.But Bobby Fuse, 71, a longtime civil rights activist who grew up in Americus, Ga., a few miles from Plains, recalled that Mr. Carter had also shown moments of real character. Among other things, he noted Mr. Carter’s objection to his Baptist church’s refusal to allow Black people to worship there.“I wouldn’t have voted for anybody running against Jimmy Carter, more than likely,” said Mr. Fuse, who said he had first voted for Mr. Carter in his successful 1970 governor’s race. “Because I knew him to be an upright man different from the other Southerners.”There were seeds of this difference early in the life of Mr. Carter. But as a young politician, it did not always translate into action. And the repressive environment of the mid-20th century meant that he had no Black voters to woo when he started his first foray into electoral politics with a 1962 bid for a South Georgia State Senate seat. Due to racist restrictions, hardly any Black people were registered to vote in his district at the time.Mr. Carter waved to the crowd as he and his wife, Rosalynn, arrived at Plains Baptist Church to attend services in 1976.Associated PressPresident Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, with former President Bill Clinton and Mr. Carter at a ceremony commemorating the 50th anniversary of the 1963 March on Washington.Doug Mills/The New York TimesHistorians say that Mr. Carter, early in his career, was both a creature and a critic of the strict segregationist system he had been born into. He largely kept his head down as civil rights advocates fought and sacrificed to change the status quo, with serious, and sometimes dangerous, protests and crackdowns flaring up in Sumter County.Later, once he had achieved positions of power, he was outspoken about renouncing racial discrimination, seeking means to redress it and trying to live up to those principles. During his presidency, he famously enrolled his daughter, Amy, in a public school in Washington, D.C. Decades after leaving the White House, he offered a full-throated rebuke of Barack Obama’s Republican critics, calling their attacks racism loosely disguised as partisanship during his presidency.“He saw his role as an elder statesman,” said Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University. “The fact that you have an elderly white president, from the South, who is there saying, ‘Look, the emperor has no clothes; that argument has no weight; that dog won’t hunt,’ is something that he didn’t necessarily have to do.”Mr. Carter had grown up with Black playmates in the tiny community of Archery, Ga. As a boy, his moral and spiritual north star had been a Black woman, Rachel Clark, the wife of a worker on the Carter property. He slept many nights on the floor of her home when his parents were out of town. Mr. Alter, the biographer,  wrote that she had taught him about nature and had impressed him with her selflessness. Mr. Alter wrote that Mr. Carter had even been teased in his all-white elementary school for “sounding Black.”Traffic in Warm Springs, Ga., as visitors arrived to hear Mr. Carter speak in 1976.Gary Settle/The New York TimesRachel Clark, the wife of a worker on the Carter family’s farm, whom Mr. Carter credited with teaching him morals.National Park ServiceBy the mid-1950s, Mr. Carter returned from a stint as a naval officer and settled in Plains, where he built on the family’s successful peanut business. The Brown v. Board of Education decision, which dismantled the old separate-but-equal regime for American schools, had inflamed white Southerners. Despite his efforts to appease white parents while on the school board, he was also, Mr. Alter notes, “the only prominent white man in Plains” who declined to join the local chapter of the racist White Citizens’ Council.After winning his 1962 State Senate race, Mr. Carter, a man of searing ambition, set his sights on the governor’s mansion but was defeated in 1966. He ran again and won in 1970, with a campaign full of unsubtle dog whistles to aggrieved white voters that included promises to restore “law and order” to their communities and, according to Mr. Alter, the dissemination of a “fact sheet” that reminded white voters that Mr. Carter’s Democratic opponent, former Gov. Carl Sanders, had attended Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s funeral.In the Democratic primary, Black voters took notice: Mr. Sanders, in the runoff, garnered roughly 90 percent of their votes. But by the general election, Mr. Carter was campaigning heavily in Black churches.The dog-whistle strategy had generated its share of bitterness and criticism. But a course correction followed, in the form of Mr. Carter’s inaugural address.“The time for racial discrimination is over,” he said.Mr. Carter’s supporters at the Democratic convention.H. Christoph/Ullstein Bild, via Getty ImagesMembers of the Concord Baptist Church congregation listening to Mr. Carter speaking in Brooklyn in 1980.Don Hogan Charles/The New York Times“It was really dramatic for all of us, because he said it in that forum, as he was being sworn in,” Mr. Fuse recalled. “And hopefully we were going to see some activity from that.”They did. Mr. Carter expanded the presence of Black Georgians in state government, from senior officials to state troopers, and welcomed civil rights leaders to the governor’s office.Black skeptics were converted into allies in other ways. In an interview this week, Andrew Young, the civil rights leader who would serve as ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Carter, recalled having “a real prejudice to overcome” when the two men first met as Mr. Carter was running for governor.When the matter of Fred Chappell, Sumter County’s notoriously racist sheriff, came up, Mr. Carter called him a “good friend.” Mr. Young was taken aback: Mr. Chappell had once arrested Dr. King after a protest. When Dr. King’s associates tried to bring him blankets to ward off the cold, Mr. Chappell refused them and turned on the fan instead.Later, however, Mr. Young said he had gotten to know Mr. Carter’s family, including his mother, Lillian. Mr. Young, too, came to trust him. “I decided that he was always all right on race,” Mr. Young said. “He never discriminated between his Black friends and white friends.”Mr. Carter, as president, meeting in 1977 with his commission for the appointment of Black Americans to the federal judiciary in the Fifth Circuit.Harvey Georges/Associated PressAndrew Young, right, campaigning for Mr. Carter in Boston in 1976.Mikki Ansin/Getty ImagesIt went the same way with other influential civil rights leaders in Georgia, including Dr. King’s widow, Coretta Scott King, and his father, Martin Luther King Sr. According to the author and journalist Kandy Stroud, the elder Mr. King sent a telegram to voters lauding Mr. Carter’s appointment of Black judges and his support for a fair housing law, among other things. “I know a man I can trust, Blacks can trust, and that man is Jimmy Carter,” he wrote.By the time Mr. Carter started his 1976 bid for the White House, it was these leaders who spread the message beyond Georgia voters that Mr. Carter was worthy of their trust. They helped bolster the “peanut brigade,” the nickname for the team of staff members and volunteers spread across the country to campaign for him, making it a mix of Black and white Carter supporters.“They had to tell these people in the rest of the country, ‘Yeah, he’s governor of Georgia, but he’s a different kind of governor of Georgia,’” Mr. Fuse said.In a recent interview, the Rev. Al Sharpton recalled that the King family had lobbied him to support Mr. Carter in 1976. That went a long way, he said, but so did Mr. Carter’s presentation. “A Southern guy that would stand up and talk about racism?” he said. “This was the kind of guy that my uncle trusted down South. And he connected with us for that.”As a presidential candidate, however, Mr. Carter again showed his propensity for trying to have it both ways in a racially divided country.George Skelton, a Los Angeles Times columnist, recently recalled covering the candidate as he campaigned in Wisconsin and watching as he seemed to give contradictory messages on school busing to separate groups of Black and white voters within the span of a single day.Mrs. Coretta King accepting the Presidential Medal on behalf of her late husband, Dr. Martin Luther King, in 1977.Associated PressMr. Carter, second from right, shaking hands with Black seniors at the Watts Labor Community Action Council in Los Angeles, in 1976.Reed Saxon/Associated PressAnd in a speech about protecting neighborhoods, Mr. Carter used the phrase “ethnic purity,” creating a mini-scandal. Soon after, Mr. Young told him that the use of the phrase had been a “disaster for the campaign.” Mr. Carter issued an apology.But Mr. Carter also found common cultural ground with Black voters nationwide, many of whom shared his Christian faith. They saw how comfortable he was in Black churches. “‘Born again’ is the secret of his success with Blacks,” Ethel Allen, a Black surgeon from Philadelphia, told Ms. Stroud at the time.As president, Mr. Carter sought “to mend the racial divide,” said Kai Bird, another Carter biographer. Mr. Bird noted that food aid was significantly expanded under Mr. Carter, benefiting many poor Black residents in rural areas. Mr. Bird also noted that the Carter administration had toughened rules aimed at preventing racially discriminatory schools from claiming tax-exempt status.If that explains why Black voters stuck with Mr. Carter in 1980, it may have also sown the seeds of his defeat. “I think all of these decisions were too much for white America,” Mr. Bird said. “Ronald Reagan came along and appealed much more to white voters.”Mr. Fuse agrees. All these years later, he still laments the fact that Mr. Carter was denied a second term. Instead of focusing on the problems that plagued Mr. Carter’s time in office — the inflation, the energy crisis, the American hostages stuck in Tehran — Mr. Fuse spoke, instead, about that hope that Mr. Carter had engendered in 1976, and not just for Black voters.“When this white man comes along who’s grinning with a broad smile after Watergate, he lifted our spirits,” Mr. Fuse said. “He lifted everybody’s spirits.” More

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    A Guide to the 2024 Republican Presidential Campaign

    We offer a field guide to the 2024 Republican presidential campaign.Officially, the 2024 Republican presidential campaign has barely begun, with only two major candidates — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley — having entered the race.In reality, the campaign is well underway. Looking at the historical evidence, Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, argues that a typical nomination campaign is already about halfway done by this stage. “The notion that the campaign is already at halftime is a little mind-bending,” Nate writes, “but if you reimagine a presidential campaign as everything a candidate will do to amass the support needed to win, it starts to make a little more sense.”Consider that Joe Biden won the 2020 Democratic nomination largely on the strength of work that he did — especially as Barack Obama’s vice president — years earlier. Or that Trump probably could not have won in 2016 without his reality television fame. Most modern nominees have had the support of at least 20 percent of their party’s voters at this stage in the campaign, Nate notes. Rising from obscurity is rare, partly because campaign donors and staff members have begun to pick their candidates by now.For these reasons, there are two distinct categories of 2024 Republican candidates. The first includes only Trump and Ron DeSantis — by far the early polling leaders — and the second category includes everybody else.When we asked our colleague Maggie Haberman to imagine a scenario in which the nominee is not DeSantis or Trump, she told us, “It’s possible, but it’s just very hard to see.” One way it could happen, she added, would be if DeSantis took a commanding lead and Trump then tried to destroy him. “If it looks like DeSantis is going to be the nominee, Trump is likely to do whatever he can to tear him down before that happens,” Maggie said.Today, we spin out the possibilities in our inaugural field guide to the 2024 Republican race.The former presidentTrump leads in most early primary polls, typically with more than 40 percent of Republicans’ support nationwide. He could win the nomination simply by retaining that support while remaining voters splinter, as happened in 2016.In polls from Jan. 19 to Feb. 16. | Source: RealClearPoliticsBut Trump’s weaknesses are real. His support tends to be lower in higher-quality polls. Criminal investigations hang over him (as this new Times story explains). He has already lost once to Biden. And his preferred candidates underperformed other Republicans last year by about five percentage points on average.Republican politics often have little to do with policy proposals these days. Still, there are potential policy debates between Trump and DeSantis. Trump has started making a populist critique of DeSantis for his past support of proposals to cut Social Security and Medicare. DeSantis could criticize Trump for supporting Dr. Anthony Fauci and for enacting federal spending that caused inflation.The Florida governorDeSantis has ascended to national prominence for two main reasons.First, Florida is thriving during his governorship by some metrics. Many more people are moving there than leaving, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board pointed out. Florida’s unemployment rate is among the nation’s lowest, at 2.5 percent. During the pandemic, DeSantis lifted restrictions relatively early, and many experts predicted disaster. But Florida’s overall Covid death rate is only modestly higher than the national average, and its age-adjusted death rate is lower. Last year, DeSantis won re-election by 19 percentage points.Second, DeSantis delights in confronting liberals, and not just about Covid. He has flown migrants to Massachusetts to protest President Biden’s immigration policy. “Florida is where woke goes to die,” DeSantis has said, summarizing the fights he has picked on medical care for transgender youth and on racial issues. “DeSantis’s appeal right now is that he is perceived as both a fighter for conservative causes and a winner,” says our colleague Michael Bender, who’s covering the Republican field.How might Trump attack him? “Trumpworld sees DeSantis less through the lens of specific policies than how they can paint him generally either as a phony or as someone partial to old-school establishment thinking,” Maggie said. “Mostly, they anticipate that Trump will try to smear him repeatedly and they think or hope that DeSantis will ultimately have to respond, which so far he’s mostly avoided.”It remains unclear how well DeSantis, who is not a particularly charismatic politician, will fare in the rigors of a national campaign.Nikki Haley in Iowa this week.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesThe potential fieldHaley, a former South Carolina governor, is running as a Reaganesque optimist who believes in small government and foreign policy hawkishness. She served in Trump’s cabinet and describes him as a friend — while she offers a sunnier vision of America than he does.Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, a former private-equity executive, also takes a Reaganesque approach. He is comfortable with business executives and evangelicals, two big Republican constituencies.“I don’t like losers,” Chris Sununu, New Hampshire’s governor, recently said. “I’m not anti-Trump, I’m not pro-Trump. We’re just moving on.” Sununu also calls himself a conservative who’s not an extremist. Larry Hogan, Maryland’s former governor, would also like to find space in this lane.Mike Pence is a longtime favorite of evangelicals. But Trump supporters distrust him for not trying to overturn the 2020 election result, while many Trump critics would rather not select his former vice president.Mike Pompeo has a sterling résumé: He graduated first in his class at West Point, was elected to Congress and served as Trump’s secretary of state. He has remained mostly loyal to Trump. “How does he differentiate himself?” Michael Bender asks.Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota also seem to be considering a run, as are a few others.Here’s how one of these candidates might defy the odds: Maybe Trump is as wounded as some people think, or DeSantis will struggle on the national stage. Space might then open for an alternative, and one of the second-tier candidates could shine during the early debates and campaign appearances.In past campaigns, early poll leaders have sometimes faded (like Rudy Giuliani in 2008) and long shots have won nominations (like Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992). Upsets do happen, but they’re called upsets for a reason.To make sense of the campaign, Times subscribers can sign up for Nate Cohn’s newsletter.More on politicsThe special counsel investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election subpoenaed Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.Trump visited East Palestine, Ohio, where a train derailment spewed toxic chemicals this month, and criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the disaster.By giving Tucker Carlson exclusive access to Jan. 6 security footage, Speaker Kevin McCarthy essentially outsourced re-litigation of the attack to a purveyor of conspiracy theories.Since Jimmy Carter entered hospice care, residents in his hometown in Georgia have been keeping vigil.THE LATEST NEWSSevere WeatherA snowstorm in Minneapolis yesterday.Craig Lassig/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHundreds of thousands of people are without power in the Midwest because of a winter storm.A blizzard could hit Southern California. See the snow forecast for where you live.War in UkraineUkraine managed to hit Russian-held territory with explosions deep behind enemy lines.Biden wrapped up a trip to Europe yesterday, promising American commitment to its allies. In Moscow, Vladimir Putin welcomed China’s top diplomat.Other Big StoriesLawmakers in Mexico gutted the country’s election watchdog, the body that helped end one-party rule, ahead of next year’s presidential contest.An Israeli operation to arrest Palestinian fighters in the West Bank led to a gunfight that killed at least 10 Palestinians.A gunman in Florida killed three people, including a child and a reporter.The man who killed the rapper Nipsey Hussle in 2019 was sentenced to 60 years to life in prison.OpinionsPolitical leaders blunder into wars because they downplay the costs of war and the benefits of peace, Farah Stockman writes.Covid mask mandates didn’t work, Bret Stephens argues.MORNING READSNew menu item: Starbucks in Italy is offering olive oil-infused coffee.“Enablers of our boredom”: The banality of ChatGPT is more eerie than any A.I. movie, the critic A.O. Scott writes.Unwanted connection: Who really controls your smart home?The coldest case in Laramie: Listen to the story of a long unsolved murder.Well: Learn about the wild world inside your gut.Advice from Wirecutter: Get your weekends back with a laundry sorter.Lives Lived: During her more than five decades as a television journalist in Brazil, Glória Maria toppled barriers for Black women at a time when the country’s anchor chairs were mostly filled by white men. She died at 73.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICA return to N.B.A. action: Kevin Durant could play his first game as a Phoenix Sun next week.En route to the World Cup: The U.S. women’s national soccer team beat Brazil, 2-1, winning the SheBelieves Cup title. ARTS AND IDEAS Blundstone’s Chelsea boots.Courtesy of BlundstoneThese boots are everywhereEvery so often, a boot becomes characteristic of a moment in time. In the early 1990s, there were Timberlands; in the early 2000s, Uggs. For our current era, Max Berlinger writes, fashion historians may point to Blundstone’s Chelsea boots.The boots have elastic side bands instead of laces or buckles. Their ease and comfort is a key part of the appeal. “I can stand in them for hours,” Woldy Reyes, a chef in New York, said. “I know so many other chefs who wear them in the kitchen.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesFind comfort in this bacon, egg and cheese fried rice.What to Read“Win Every Argument,” by Mehdi Hasan, and “Say the Right Thing,” by Kenji Yoshino and David Glasgow, offer approaches to talking to others. TravelThe celebrated violinist Joshua Bell recommends these five places in London.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was pityingly. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bashful (three letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. After more than 2,200 movie reviews, the Times film critic A.O. Scott is moving to the Book Review.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about a Supreme Court ruling about social media.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses and Tom Wright-Piersanti contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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    How Biden Thinks

    On Presidents’ Day, we go inside the West Wing to explain a crucial way that Biden is different from many Democrats.I want to use today’s newsletter — on Presidents’ Day — to explain how President Biden thinks about the country and what distinguishes him from many other leading Democrats. To do so, I spent time at the White House last week talking with senior officials and emerged with a clearer sense of why Biden and his inner circle believe that he should run for re-election.You may not agree with them. He is already 80 years old. But even if you think his age should be disqualifying for 2024, Biden’s analysis of American politics is worth considering. He believes that he understands public opinion in ways that many of his fellow Democrats do not, and there is reason to think he is correct.Let’s start in the same place that Biden often does when talking about this subject: with the campaign that launched his career.‘Limousine liberals’Biden was first elected to the Senate in a very bad year for the Democratic presidential nominee. It was 1972, and that nominee was George McGovern. Richard Nixon, the incumbent, portrayed McGovern as an effete liberal who was focused on the three A’s — amnesty (for draft dodgers), abortion and acid. Despite McGovern’s own humble background and World War II heroism, he played into the caricature, allowing Hollywood stars and college activists to become symbols of his campaign.Biden, a 29-year-old long-shot Senate candidate in Delaware, took a different approach. On economic issues, he ran as a populist. He complained about “millionaires who don’t pay any taxes at all” and “billion-dollar corporations who want a ride on the public’s back.”On other issues, Biden signaled that he was more moderate. He called for an end to the Vietnam War while also opposing amnesty for draft dodgers. He said the police should focus less on marijuana busts while also opposing legalization. He distanced himself from McGovern’s student volunteers. “I’m not as liberal as most people think,” Biden told a Delaware newspaper.On Election Day, McGovern lost every state except Massachusetts and received less than 40 percent of the vote in Delaware. Biden won a shocking upset that launched his long Senate career.Joe Biden in 1972.Associated PressToday, when Biden reminisces about the McGovern campaign, he uses the phrase “limousine liberals,” which was coined in 1969. “They forgot about the neighborhood I grew up in,” he has said. The key lesson was that the rest of America looked more like Biden’s old neighborhood in Scranton, Pa., than like Hollywood or the Ivy League.Biden has never forgotten that. Every president since Nixon had hung a portrait of George Washington above the fireplace in the Oval Office, but not Biden. That spot has instead gone to Franklin D. Roosevelt. When Biden looks up from his desk, he sees the portrait. He tells people that F.D.R. is the president who never forgot about the working class.“We didn’t pay nearly as much attention to working-class folks as we used to,” Biden said recently, talking about 1972. “And the same thing is happening today.”‘Sick and tired’Regular readers of The Morning may recognize this theme. The Democratic Party, especially its left flank, has gone upscale in the 21st century, increasingly reflecting the social liberalism of well-off professionals. Most Americans without a four-year college degree now vote Republican, even though they lean left on economic issues.When explaining the shift, liberals sometimes argue that it stems from working-class bigotry. And racism certainly influences American politics. But the shift is not simply about race (nor is it smart politics to describe millions of voters as bigots).After all, the Democratic Party’s upscale liberalism has alienated voters of color, too. Latinos have become more Republican in the past few years; one recent analysis of the Latino vote found that liberals’ stridency on Covid precautions and their lack of concern about border security have harmed Democrats. Many Black voters, for their part, hold more moderate views on crime, immigration and gender issues than liberal professionals do.Biden’s own rise to presidency highlighted this dynamic. He ran as Joe from Scranton — and Black voters in South Carolina rescued his campaign. Affluent moderates often preferred Michael Bloomberg or Pete Buttigieg, while affluent progressives liked Elizabeth Warren.Biden in Covington, Ky.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesAs president, Biden has stuck to this approach. He is more socially liberal than he was in 1972 but downplays the issues on which many swing voters are moderate. In his State of the Union address, he didn’t say much about abortion, a recognition that the country is more conflicted about the issue than liberals often imagine. On immigration, he has taken steps to reduce the surge of undocumented migrants (albeit slowly, as Republicans note). On Covid, he infuriated some on the left by saying what seems obvious to many Americans: The virus is still a threat, but the pandemic is over.On economic issues, by contrast, Biden is the most progressive president in decades. “Damn it,” he has said, “I’m sick and tired of ordinary people being fleeced.”He talks proudly about his crackdown on corporate concentration. He says that the pharmaceutical industry has “ripped off” the country, and he has capped some drug costs. He says that the solution to Social Security financing involves raising taxes on the rich. He waves away neoliberal criticism of his “Buy America” trade policies. He has enacted a huge infrastructure program and plans to travel the country this year telling voters about the bridges, roads and factories that are part of it.The Democrats’ dilemmaBiden, to be clear, has not solved the Democratic Party’s working-class problem. He too lost voters without a bachelor’s degree in 2020, although he won a few more percentage points of their vote than Hillary Clinton had in 2016. He has also not solved the country’s inequality problem. It’s too soon to know if his policies will make a meaningful difference.But Biden has demonstrated something important. He occupies the true middle ground in American politics, well to the left of most elected Republicans on economics and somewhat to the right of most elected Democrats on social issues. Polls on specific issues point to the same conclusion. That’s the biggest reason that he is the person who currently gets to decide how to decorate the Oval Office.All of which underscores a dilemma facing the Democratic Party. In 2024, it either must nominate a man who would be 86 when his second term ended or choose among a group of prominent alternatives who tend to bear some political resemblance to George McGovern.For more: Three words sum up Biden’s 2024 message — competent beats crazy.Go back in time: “Delaware Elects Youngest U.S. Senator,” The Times reported in 1972.THE LATEST NEWSWar in UkraineBiden and Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv today.Daniel Berehulak/The New York TimesBiden made a secret trip to Kyiv and met with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s leader, ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion.The trip came during a diplomatic visit to Poland to affirm U.S. support for Ukraine. Here’s the latest from the meetings.Secretary of State Antony Blinken says China is considering giving Russia weapons, a move that would transform the war into a struggle involving three superpowers.Vladimir Putin has reshaped Russia in his image during a year of war.A Ukrainian husband and wife shared a trench on the front line. They died in it together.InternationalTurkey’s post-earthquake reconstruction is compounding the country’s economic problems.The influencer Andrew Tate’s misogynistic views are popular with some British students. Educators are trying to fight back.The Duomo in Milan has needed constant care for 637 years.Other Big StoriesThe frozen Arctic Ocean near Deadhorse, Alaska.Brian Adams for The New York TimesMinus 30 and limited daylight: The U.S. military gave up a hunt for downed flying objects at the end of the world. See images from the search.One person was killed and 10 others wounded in shootings in Memphis.Residents of East Palestine, Ohio, are paying for their own toxic-chemical tests because they don’t trust the government’s handling of a recent train derailment.Telemedicine is making Ketamine more accessible. Some people are using the drug to treat depression, but others are abusing it.The founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund will be paid billions to retire.OpinionsGail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the Republican presidential candidates.Patti Davis, Ronald Reagan’s daughter, hopes Bruce Willis will feel a little less lonely because of his announcement of his dementia diagnosis.Big tech companies should be liable for the illegal conduct that their platforms enable, says Julia Angwin.MORNING READSSachi Cunningham at Ocean Beach in San Francisco.Christie Hemm Klok for The New York TimesBig-wave photography: She swims in icy water with sharks to get the shot.Avoiding toxins: Use this guide to pick safer beauty products.Going gray: A news anchor’s hair color made her the focus of the story.Metropolitan Diary: A pigeon in a picnic basket in the park.Game time: Take our latest news quiz. (The average was 8.9.)Lives Lived: Richard Belzer played Detective John Munch on “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.” He died at 78. SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICM.L.B. turmoil: The league created an “economic reform committee” as it looks to address huge spending disparities and the future of local broadcasts. LeBron James: The basketball star will try to play in all of the Lakers’ remaining games to help his team make the playoffs. Women’s soccer: The U.S. team beat Japan in the SheBelieves Cup. Mallory Swanson scored the game-winning goal.ARTS AND IDEAS Golden CosmosNew York noirFreedoms betrayed, classes divided, races at war — these heady themes lace Walter Mosley’s 46th novel, “Every Man a King.” The title is a reference to the motto of Huey Long, the populist Louisiana demagogue from the 1930s. Mosley’s book is a hard-boiled tale set in New York, and our reviewer calls it “a sterling example” of the genre.PLAY, WATCH, EATBeatriz Da Costa for The New York TimesWhat to CookMake gumbo or a caramelized apple king cake to celebrate Mardi Gras.What to Watch“All Quiet on the Western Front,” a German-language movie, was named best film at the BAFTAs.On ComedyTry these sets from a maturing Marc Maron and a pandering Roseanne Barr.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was opulent. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Meadow songbird (four letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.P.S. Labor issues, senatorial speeches and “a snub to King George”: How Presidents’ Day came to be.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is off today for the holiday.Kitty, Bennett, Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More