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      A Guide to Election Day

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      Can a Democrat win the Deep South? And other questions to help you make sense of the results. Today is Election Day, and we are using this newsletter to give you a guide. One theme is that Democrats are hoping to continue their strong recent electoral performance despite President Biden’s low approval rating.Why have Democrats done so well in elections since 2022? In part, it’s because voter turnout is modest in off-year elections like today’s. The people who vote tend to be engaged in politics. They are older, more affluent and more highly educated than people who vote only in presidential elections.As the Democratic Party becomes more upscale — the class inversion of American politics that this newsletter often discusses — the party will naturally do better in lower-turnout elections than it once did. But these victories do not necessarily foreshadow presidential elections. The other side of the class inversion is that Democrats are increasingly struggling with lower-income and nonwhite voters, many of whom vote only in presidential elections.Today’s elections still matter for their own sake, of course. Below, we list the questions that can help you make sense of the results.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.We are confirming your access to this article, this will take just a moment. However, if you are using Reader mode please log in, subscribe, or exit Reader mode since we are unable to verify access in that state.Confirming article access.If you are a subscriber, please  More

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      A Report Card for Bidenomics

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      Voters’ negative perceptions about the economy are weighing on President Biden’s poll numbers. Here’s what his economic policies have, and haven’t, accomplished.President Biden is finding it hard to sell Americans on his economic track record.Kent Nishimura for The New York TimesWhere the economy is working (and where it isn’t) With a year to go before Election Day, polls increasingly show that American voters believe next year will be a rematch between President Biden and Donald Trump — with the former president in the lead in key battleground states despite his legal troubles (more on that below).Biden’s troubles stem in large part from negative perceptions about the economy, even as several indications show that it is performing strongly. Here’s a deeper look at what “Bidenomics” has, and hasn’t, accomplished.On the positive side: jobs. Since Biden took office, employers have created 14 million jobs, and the unemployment rate has been hovering around a 50-year-low for months.The president has also been talking up signature economic accomplishments like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which he argues have helped rebuild rural America and invigorated the economy. “Bidenomics is just another way of saying the American dream,” he said in a speech. It’s not a stretch. The economy grew last quarter at nearly 5 percent, belying a global slowdown.On the negative side: inflation. Wages have been growing slowly, but they’ve been offset by rising prices, Biden’s Achilles’ heel. Republicans have blamed the White House’s economic policies for soaring consumer prices, which hit a 40-year high in the summer of 2022.Many economists say global factors are probably more to blame. But the perception of Biden’s culpability here is hurting him.A partial win: the markets. Investors tend to give high marks to presidents whose tenures coincide with strong investment returns. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 15 percent since Biden’s inauguration, weathering much of the slump set off by the Fed’s historic rates-tightening policy. (The bond market has gone in the opposite direction.)That’s decent, but pales in comparison with the Trump years, when the benchmark index climbed more than 65 percent.Biden has been touring the country — on Monday, he was in Delaware to promote federal money flowing to Amtrak, the rail operator — to refocus the public’s perceptions of his economic achievements. Meanwhile, questions swirl over whether Biden can eventually overtake Trump.A reminder: The DealBook Summit is on Nov. 29. Among the guests are Bob Iger of Disney; Lina Khan of the F.T.C.; and David Zaslav of Warner Bros. Discovery. You can apply to attend here.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Uber’s latest earnings miss expectations. The ride-hailing giant said on Tuesday that it had earned 10 cents per share in the third quarter, below the 12 cents that analysts had forecast. But the company argued that its business showed strong growth in its core mobility division.OpenAI seeks to build on its runaway success. The Microsoft-backed A.I. start-up said that its chatbot, ChatGPT, now had over 100 million weekly active users, giving it a formidable lead in the race to capture artificial intelligence customers. The company also introduced an online store that will let users build customized chatbots.Striking Hollywood actors push back on studios’ latest contract offer. The SAG-AFTRA union said that the “last, best and final” bid still fell short on key issues like the use of A.I., making it unclear when its nearly four-month strike will end. In other labor news, Starbucks will raise the average salary of hourly workers by at least 3 percent.Trump puts his legal liabilities on displayDonald Trump may be handily leading the 2024 election polls. But his appearance in court on Monday, testifying in a civil fraud lawsuit filed by New York State, appeared to do him no favors in efforts to hold onto his business empire.It was a reminder that, while he’s riding high in the presidential race, the former president still faces a thicket of legal battles that could cost him financially and, perhaps, politically.Here are some notable moments from Trump’s testimony:Trump conceded that he had played a role in valuing his company’s properties, an issue at the heart of the case. (New York prosecutors argue that Trump illicitly inflated his net worth to defraud banks and insurers.) Of the company’s financial statements, he said, “I would look at them, I would see them, and I would maybe on occasion have some suggestions.”But Trump also sought to underplay the importance of those statements, saying they were so riddled with disclaimers that they were “worthless.” He promised, unprompted, that some of his bankers would testify in his defense.Trump also assailed the presiding judge, Arthur Engoron, for having decided before the trial that fraud was committed. Engoron appeared exasperated, telling the former president to answer questions and stop delivering speeches.The testimony was a reminder of his political baggage, which was also an undercurrent of the endorsement of Ron DeSantis on Monday by Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular governor. Reynolds, whose state’s caucuses could be crucial in bolstering a Trump rival, said that the U.S. needed a president “who puts this country first and not himself” — a thinly veiled rebuke of Trump.His legal issues don’t appear to have dented his popularity. He has contended that he is being politically persecuted — “People like you go around and try to demean me and try to hurt me,” he told a state lawyer on Monday — an argument that some of his supporters have embraced.In a sign of his enduring political strength, the betting site PredictIt puts Trump’s odds of winning the nomination on Monday at more than four times that of his nearest competitor in its market, Nikki Haley.Dina Powell McCormick, in 2017, when she was a deputy national security adviser during the Trump presidency.Al Drago for The New York TimesExxon Mobil taps a Wall Street and D.C. power player Dina Powell McCormick, a former Goldman Sachs executive and onetime Trump administration official, is joining the board of Exxon Mobil effective Jan. 1. Her appointment comes as energy groups have embarked on a series of big deals on the back of soaring oil prices and bumper profits.Powell McCormick has long been one of the most senior women on Wall Street. Before joining BDT & MSD partners, an investment and advisory firm, earlier this year, she spent 16 years at Goldman Sachs. Powell McCormick led the Wall Street giant’s global sovereign business and sustainability, and she was a member of its management committee, among other roles.Powell McCormick has also been a Washington power player. She has spent more than a dozen years working in government. From 2017 to 2018, she was a deputy national security adviser to Trump and played a significant role on Middle East policy, including efforts to broker a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. (Her husband, David McCormick, is a former C.E.O. of the hedge fund Bridgewater and was a Treasury Department official under Hank Paulson. He is running for Senate in Pennsylvania as a Republican.)Powell McCormick’s appointment even won backing from Mike Bloomberg, who is spending billions to fight climate change — a sign of how wide-ranging her political and business relationships are.“Dina has been a close partner for years through her role as global head of sustainability at Goldman Sachs,” Bloomberg said, “and we have teamed up to create new partnerships that invest in market-driven ways to create clean energy and advance climate transition goals.”Energy giants are on a deal spree. Exxon reported quarterly profits of $9.1 billion last month, as oil prices have surged and demand has skyrocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In October, Exxon agreed to acquire the shale oil specialist Pioneer Natural Resources for around $60 billion and Chevron struck a $53 billion deal to buy Hess. Exxon’s board had been in the spotlight over the energy transition. Engine No. 1, an activist investor, won three seats after targeting the company over its governance and environmental track record. But two years later, the firm changed course, saying that Exxon had made big changes. Exxon, however, has resisted calls to pour more money into renewable energy, arguing that its money is better on low-carbon investments.Tracing WeWork’s rise and spectacular fallWeWork finally filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, after years of struggling with crushing debt and the coronavirus pandemic’s emptying out of office spaces — and that’s even after it had abandoned the runaway growth it pursued under its co-founder, Adam Neumann.The company that sought Chapter 11 is a shell of the real estate juggernaut that first sought to go public at a $47 billion valuation. (Its stock is down 98 percent this year.) Here’s how the business once lauded by the Japanese tech investor SoftBank as a revolution went astray.WeWork has been on its heels since it scrapped its I.P.O. plans in 2019. The company had been riding high, buoyed by Neumann’s promises that the start-up — whose business involved leasing out office space for co-working — would “elevate the world’s consciousness.” But then:Prospective investors blanched at the company’s steep losses, lax corporate governance and the controversies that dogged Neumann. (Activities on private jets were among them.) And the S.E.C. criticized the company’s disclosure involving mismatches between long-term financial obligations and its short-term assets. Neumann stepped down after WeWork shelved its I.P.O., and SoftBank provided it with a multibillion-dollar lifeline.Under a new C.E.O., Sandeep Mathrani, WeWork confronted the devastating effect of pandemic lockdowns and the rise of remote working. The company went public — via a blank-check vehicle — in 2021, while it started closing locations and renegotiating leases.Mathrani left in May, reportedly after clashing with SoftBank. His replacement, David Tolley, has kept trying to right the ship, but WeWork warned in August that there was “substantial doubt” about its future. Last month, it said it would miss interest payments on its debt.WeWork’s filing raises questions about the fate of commercial real estate. The company noted on Monday that it had reached agreements with about 92 percent of creditors holding secured debt. Its restructuring involves reducing its real estate portfolio.The company is one of the largest corporate tenants in New York and London, and any move to shed more of its leases would hurt commercial landlords that are themselves struggling to pay their debts.THE SPEED READ DealsResearch analysts at some of the banks that took Birkenstock public wrote in their initial reports on the sandal maker that its I.P.O. was valued too high. (Bloomberg)“Warring Billionaires, a Rogue Employee, a Divorce: One Hedge Fund’s Tale of Woe” (NYT)PolicyIntel is reportedly the leading candidate to land billions of dollars in federal funding to build secure plants to make chips for use by the U.S. military and intelligence agencies. (WSJ)A man who posed as a billionaire rabbi and made a $290 million takeover bid for the retailer Lord & Taylor was sentenced to more than eight years in prison. (Bloomberg)Best of the restDisney hired Hugh Johnston, the longtime finance chief at PepsiCo, as its new C.F.O. (CNBC)The founder of the dating app Bumble, Whitney Wolfe Herd, is stepping down as C.E.O. (NYT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      What Can Biden Do?

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      The president’s strategic options for 2024. With President Biden having fallen behind Donald Trump in the early 2024 polls, Trump’s strategy seems fairly straightforward: more of the same. Trump will portray Biden as old, inflation as high, immigration as out of control and the nation as weak. All these arguments play into the concerns of many voters.But what might Biden do to improve his position over the next year? Today’s newsletter looks at four possibilities.1. The ‘anti-MAGA majority’Since Trump took office in 2017, the Republican Party has struggled nationally. In 2018, it lost control of the House. In 2020, Trump lost his re-election bid. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats did better than expected.Michael Podhorzer, a political analyst and a former A.F.L.-C.I.O. official, argues that this pattern stems from the emergence of “an anti-MAGA majority.” Americans under 30, for example, have been voting at higher rates since 2016, partly because of their opposition to Trump, Podhorzer notes. Other analysts have pointed to suburban voters who are turned off by Trump’s attacks on democracy. This pattern helps explain why Trump-endorsed candidates in swing states like Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania did so poorly in the 2022 midterms.Today, Trump is leading in most swing states, according to the latest Times/Siena College poll. Once the campaign picks up, though, Trump’s behavior will get more attention, partly because some of his criminal trials will likely have begun. In the Times poll, about 6 percent of voters in battleground states — enough to swing the result — said they would abandon their support for Trump if he were convicted on charges related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and sentenced to prison.2. The Roe factorAnother cause of Democrats’ recent election wins is the unpopularity of the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade. That ruling has allowed Republicans to nearly ban abortion in many states, and most voters oppose those bans.I do think Democrats sometimes exaggerate the political impact of abortion. In 2022, many Democratic candidates tried to beat Republican incumbents by emphasizing the issue. In red states like Florida and Texas, the strategy generally failed — a sign that most Americans don’t vote based on only one issue.That said, in swing states like Michigan, the Republican Party’s extreme abortion position did apparently influence enough voters to decide some close elections last year. And Biden needs to win states like Michigan, not red states, to be re-elected.Perhaps Biden’s biggest advantage is that he could overtake Trump simply by winning back disaffected voters who normally support Democrats, as my colleague Nate Cohn explained in yesterday’s newsletter. Beyond abortion, a populist campaign — emphasizing the low taxes that many rich people pay — might also help Biden, given that many disaffected Democrats have modest incomes, Nate says.3. Issue weaknessesA pound of bacon costs an average of $7.08 in the U.S., 21 percent more than when Biden took office. The price of coffee beans has risen 33 percent. A gallon of gas is 72 percent more expensive. And because inflation affects everyone, it can damage the public mood more than almost anything else. (Yes, inflation has fallen sharply this year, but most prices have not fallen. Only their rate of increase has.)A president can’t do much to bring down prices in the short term, yet Biden has taken steps to reduce energy prices. He approved an enormous new oil project on federal land in Alaska, while enacting billions of dollars of subsidies for clean energy. He is pursuing the sort of all-of-the-above energy policy that many Americans favor.But he has been strangely unwilling to brag about the Alaska project, as Matthew Yglesias noted in a recent Substack newsletter. Biden seems more focused on avoiding criticism from climate activists than on winning over swing voters who can help re-elect arguably the most climate-friendly president ever.There is a similar dynamic on immigration. Undocumented migration to the U.S. surged after Biden took office, partly in response to his welcoming campaign rhetoric, and many Americans are unhappy about the surge. Although Biden has since taken steps to reduce the surge, he rarely emphasizes these popular steps. Again, he seems more focused on progressive activists than on swing voters.Immigration is indeed a problem for his campaign. In the Times poll, 53 percent of voters in battleground states said they trust Trump to do a better job on the issue, compared with 41 percent who trust Biden. When respondents were asked if they supported building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, 53 percent said yes.4. The age problemAnother major concern among voters is Biden’s age. He can’t make himself younger, but he could spend more time in public, demonstrating his energy and engagement. Instead, his staff has kept him cloistered and fed impressions that he isn’t up for the job, as Maureen Dowd, the Times Opinion columnist, has written: “There’s something poignant about watching a guy who used to delight in his Irish gift of gab be muzzled.”Of course, there is one other potential strategy for Democrats who are panicked about a second Trump presidency. Other Democrats could challenge Biden for the nomination. Time is running out, though. The deadlines for getting on the ballot in seven early primary states, including California and Florida, arrive this month.More on 2024“We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down”: The Biden campaign shrugged off the results of the Times/Siena College Poll.Some Democrats expressed anxiety about the poll. “No one is going to have a runaway election here,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut.Trump’s support has surged among Black men. Overall, about 20 percent of Black voters say they would back him over Biden.Biden is struggling with young voters and those concerned about the economy, Politico writes.Have a question about the Times poll? Ask it here and our reporters will answer.THE LATEST NEWSIsrael-Hamas WarIn Gaza City.Abed Khaled/Associated PressIsrael said its military had encircled Gaza City and was conducting a large attack above and below ground.Gaza is again in a blackout, and it is unclear where Israeli forces are fighting.A BBC journalist reported intense strikes and the main Palestinian news agency said Israel was conducting raids near hospitals.Israel accused Hamas of operating out of more hospitals. The World Health Organization said Gaza’s health care system had been struck more than 100 times.A photographer lost four of his five children in a strike. His surviving son, who is 1, was being treated in a crowded hospital corridor.Benjamin Netanyahu quickly suspended a minister who suggested dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza.In the north, at its border with Lebanon, Israel is fighting with Hezbollah. See maps of the escalating clashes.American ResponseAntony Blinken, the secretary of state, made unannounced visits to the West Bank and Iraq. He is working to prevent wider war and to protect U.S. troops in the region.Some American officials are concerned Israeli settlers could use U.S. weapons to force Palestinians from land in the West Bank.PoliticsDonald Trump will take the witness stand today at his civil fraud trial in Manhattan.Brandon Presley, Elvis’s second cousin, is campaigning to become the first Democratic governor of Mississippi in over 20 years.InternationalA Russian strike on Ukrainian soldiers at a military awards ceremony was a war crime, Volodymyr Zelensky said.A top Haitian police official was grocery shopping when he recognized a fugitive linked to the president’s assassination. He summoned armed officers, who arrested the suspect.China is investing in manufacturing instead of real estate.A far-right candidate in Argentina needs the youth vote to win a runoff election. The fans of Taylor Swift and BTS stand in his way.Other Big StoriesJavier OrtizMatthew Callahan for The New York TimesU.S. troops who fought the Islamic State returned with shattering mental and physical problems that the military has struggled to understand.A.I. chatbots invent information at least 3 percent of the time, and some as much as 27 percent of the time, research from a start-up found.Tyson Foods recalled nearly 30,000 pounds of dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets after people said they found small metal pieces in them.Some psychiatrists are prescribing weight-loss drugs like Ozempic to counteract weight gain from mental health drugs.OpinionsEric Adams’s hires have brought corruption and scandal to New York City, Mara Gay argues.Here are columns by David French on Speaker Mike Johnson and Nicholas Kristof on the West Bank.MORNING READSIllustration by Daniel Zvereff, Photo by NASASpace: The James Webb telescope has made stunning discoveries, including about the birth of planets like ours.English mysteries: Who killed the innkeeper with a sword in 1315?Climate change preparation: Hoboken, N.J., is building for a rainy day.Metropolitan Diary: Living out a Macy’s fantasy.Lives Lived: Helen Marcus was a late-blooming photographer whose evocative portraits of literary figures and film and television personalities graced book jackets and magazine covers for decades. She died at 97.SPORTSN.F.L.: The Cincinnati Bengals surged past their A.F.C. rivals the Buffalo Bills, 24-18, for their fourth straight win.N.B.A.: James Harden, traded to the L.A. Clippers last week, will make his debut tonight.U.S.C.: The Trojans fired their defensive coordinator, who oversaw a disappointing two-year stretch in Los Angeles.ARTS AND IDEAS At Sotheby’s.via Sotheby’s“Must-See TV”: Ahead of major auctions, teams at Sotheby’s and Christie’s prepare roving cameras and sophisticated lighting to broadcast the bidding to the world. It began as a way to do business during the pandemic lockdowns. Now, millions watch live online, riveted by how the one percent spends its money.“Twenty years ago, people thought you had to be the member of an elite club to walk through an auction house door,” said Adrien Meyer, one of Christie’s chief auctioneers. “Now you can see a sale sitting on your couch in your underpants.’’More on cultureMissy Elliott and Sheryl Crow are among the latest inductees to the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …Joe Lingeman for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Cyd Raftus McDowell.Bake this spiced cake for Election Day tomorrow.Embrace the morning light now that the days are shorter.Find the perfect winter boots. Here’s how.Take our news quiz.GAMESHere is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were goodnight and hotdogging.And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidSign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. More

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      Voters Aren’t Believing in Bidenomics

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      A new Times/Sienna poll shows the president behind in five of six key states. Voters cite his economic track record, indicators notwithstanding.President Biden’s poll numbers are sagging in key states, a new Times/Siena poll shows. Voters are especially dissatisfied with his track record on the economy.Doug Mills/The New York TimesEconomic perceptions are hurting Biden more than everThere was little good news for President Biden in the latest Times/Siena poll of 2024 battlegrounds, which found him trailing Donald Trump in five of six key states one year before voters head to the polls. (That’s despite Trump being nearly as unpopular and fighting multiple legal battles; he is taking the stand on Monday in one of them. And, on PredictIt, which is watched by political experts, Biden holds a six-point lead on Trump.)A glaring weakness for Biden remains the economy, despite signs that it’s doing well and efforts by the White House to promote its accomplishments. Experts say it’s still possible for the president to make a comeback — but when it comes to economic issues, that’s a tough task.Just 2 percent of voters said the economy was excellent, the poll found. Worryingly for Biden, that discontent is being reflected in demographics crucial to his re-election: 48 percent of Black voters in the Times/Siena poll rated the economy as poor, as did 59 percent of voters under 30. Zero respondents in that age group in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin rated the economy as excellent.Biden’s struggles are Trump’s gain. Likely voters trust the former president on the economy more than the current one by wide margins: 57 percent of those under 30 prefer Trump, as do 55 percent of Hispanics, 52 percent of women and a majority of people in every income bracket.Voters’ discontent comes despite numerous indicators that the economy is healthy, including a huge gain in third-quarter G.D.P. growth. And while Friday’s jobs data came in below expectations, the latest stats show that employers have been on a nearly three-year hiring spree.But inflation remains a sticking point. While the Fed isn’t likely to raise borrowing costs at its next rate-setting meeting in December, its policymakers haven’t closed the door to future hikes. (Some commentators have written that the studiously apolitical central bank could end up helping Trump get re-elected.)It’s unclear how Biden can turn around his fortunes. Multiple wars and global economic malaise are unlikely to stop weighing on the U.S. economy anytime soon. And voters appear to have soured on Biden himself, with an unnamed generic Democrat beating Trump by eight points.The poll prompted David Axelrod, the former Obama adviser, to openly muse about whether Biden should run for re-election. While conceding that it’s late for Democrats to change candidates, he wrote of Biden, “What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”A reminder: The DealBook Summit is on Nov. 29. Guests will include Elon Musk, who this weekend announced the launch of Grok, the first chatbot from his start-up xAI, which will draw on data from the X social network. You can apply to attend here.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING Here’s what to watch this week. Corporate earnings return to the fore after last week’s big gains for stocks and bonds. Wednesday will see results from the chip designer Arm and the media giants Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery; SoftBank, the Japanese tech investor, reports Thursday. Meanwhile, on Friday the University of Michigan will publish its latest consumer sentiment report, a key inflation signpost.Striking Hollywood actors weigh a new contract proposal by big studios. The SAG-AFTRA union said it had received a “last, best and final” offer that includes a substantial pay increase and more residual payments from streaming shows, The Times reports. South Korean stocks jump as short-selling is banned again. Stocks on the Kospi, Seoul’s biggest index, gained nearly 6 percent on Monday after the country reimposed a ban on betting against share prices to earn a profit. Critics said the eight-month prohibition, seemingly tied to elections next year, could deter overseas investors from buying Korean stocks.Berkshire Hathaway’s war chest reaches a record. Warren Buffett’s industrial conglomerate revealed in its latest earnings report that its cash balance now stands at $157 billion, giving the company ample financial ammunition for a big deal or more stock buybacks. But Berkshire also reported its first loss in a year as the paper value of stock holdings, including those in Apple, declined.Donors keep up pressure on universities over antisemitism The fight between Wall Street titans and universities over their handling of antisemitism on campus following last month’s Hamas attacks on Israel shows little sign of abating. The hedge fund manager Bill Ackman this weekend ramped up his criticism of Harvard, his alma mater, and donors continued to step back from the University of Pennsylvania.Ackman published an excoriating open letter to Harvard’s president, Claudine Gay. “Four weeks after the barbaric terrorist attacks of October 7th, I have lost confidence that you and the university will do what is required,” he wrote. Ackman said he had met with Harvard students and faculty last week, and wrote that “Jewish students are being bullied, physically intimidated, spat on” and assaulted.He called on the university to suspend those behind the abuse, even though the incidents have been referred to the police and the F.B.I.Gay has spoken out against the attacks and the abuse on campus. Last week, she appointed a group of advisers to determine how to counter antisemitism at Harvard. But Ackman sees these actions as insufficient. The university didn’t engage directly with Ackman’s latest criticism, referring instead to previous statements.Harvard’s diversity, equality and inclusion policy is also under scrutiny. Ackman pointed out that Harvard’s doesn’t explicitly include Jews, tapping into a growing argument on campuses and beyond. Adam Neufeld, a senior vice president at the Anti-Defamation League, told The Times last year that D.E.I. policies that don’t recognize Jews as a minority group reinforce the view that “Jews are not vulnerable.”Meanwhile, more donors are expressing their anger at Penn’s handling of antisemitism. They include Neuberger Berman’s Steve Eisman, a longtime benefactor, who told CNBC that he had asked that his family’s name be removed from a scholarship he had established at his alma mater. “I do not want my family’s name associated with the University of Pennsylvania, ever,” he said. The university newspaper reported that dozens more benefactors no longer want to be associated with the school.In related news: The authorities have opened a hate crime investigation after an Arab Muslim student was injured in a reported hit-and-run attack at Stanford; Israeli businesses are feeling the strain of the war.An epic new antitrust fight for GoogleGoogle is waging antitrust fights on many fronts, including a battle against the Justice Department over its dominance of online search.On Monday, the tech giant will square off in a San Francisco courtroom to defend its app store strategy against a familiar face in Silicon Valley antitrust circles: Epic Games, the publisher of Fortnite.Epic argues that Google is unfairly forcing Android users into its Play Store, where it collects a cut from in-app subscriptions and purchases. Most developers generally pay a roughly 15 percent surcharge on such purchases, though big ones like Epic pay the maximum 30 percent.Google “is using its size to do evil upon competitors, innovators, customers and users in a slew of markets it has grown to monopolize,” Epic says in its complaint. (Google counters that “Epic wants all the benefits of Android and Google Play without having to pay for them.”)Witnesses are set to include Sundar Pichai, Google’s C.E.O., and Tim Sweeney, Epic’s chief.It’s a similar case to Epic’s unsuccessful fight with Apple — but with key differences. Google, unlike Apple, allows phone makers to include alternative app stores on their devices and users to download apps directly. And it is testing a program to let developers use other payment systems in their apps for a smaller fee.And unlike the Apple case, which was decided by a judge, the Google lawsuit will be heard by a jury, adding a greater level of unpredictability.Epic is hoping things go better this time. The 2021 trial over its Apple claims ended with the game maker losing on most of its accusations, a decision that a federal appeals court backed this year. Meanwhile, Google has also reached settlements over the app store issue with both a group of state attorneys general and the dating app developer Match Group.“Big Finance is the problem” As climate activists increase pressure on oil majors to halt new fossil-fuel exploration and rein in production, they’re increasingly looking to enlist support from another industry: Big Finance.But it is a thorny problem, writes Vivienne Walt for DealBook, given that large asset managers have roundly rejected resolutions from climate-activist shareholders this year. “Big Oil is not the problem. Big Finance is the problem,” Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This, a shareholder activist group, told DealBook. “They tell oil companies, ‘Please continue with oil and gas as long as possible. We have your back.’”Wall Street has rebuffed climate measures at a record clip. On Monday, Follow This released its annual tally of proxy climate votes. It showed the biggest U.S. asset management firms — including BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity — siding with Big Oil on resolutions by activists that pushed the supermajors to commit to Paris accord emission reduction goals. The only (partial) support came from European investors including UBS and Allianz.It’s a sharp departure from a few years ago. Larry Fink, the C.E.O. of BlackRock, said in 2020 that climate change would be “the defining factor” in his firm’s investment decisions. A year later, BlackRock helped lead a board revolt at Exxon over what critics called a lackluster climate plan. This year, the world’s biggest asset manager rejected climate resolutions targeting the oil majors, including at Exxon. “Our role is not to replace the judgment of management and the board,” it said.The oil boom has been good business. With oil prices surging and a deal frenzy expected in the oil patch, Wall Street looks to reap billions in fees. It’s also backing new projects. Reclaim Finance, a French climate organization, notes that Citigroup and Bank of America funded tens of billions worth of oil exploration after they joined the U.N.-created Net Zero Banking Alliance in 2021. “We want them to stop giving new capital,” said Agathe Masson, the group’s stewardship campaigner in Paris.Lobbying continues behind the scenes. The Rev. Kirsten Spalding, vice president of the investor network for Ceres, a Boston-based climate organization, said financial firms are still being tough on Big Oil. “I’m hearing a lot about capital expenditure: How much are they moving into climate solutions? How are they accounting for emissions?” she said. THE SPEED READ DealsTelecom Italia agreed to sell its landline telephone network to KKR for $23.6 billion, a deal that may draw a legal challenge by the Italian company’s biggest shareholder, Vivendi. (Bloomberg)Saudi Arabia reportedly could buy a $5 billion stake in the Indian Premier League cricket competition at a $30 billion valuation. (Bloomberg)LVMH said it will buy the Los Angeles-based eyewear maker Barton Perreira, reportedly for about $80 million. (WSJ)PolicyWill the Treasury Department’s decision to increase the size of longer-term debt by less than expected prove a turning point for markets? (WSJ)“More Semiconductors, Less Housing: China’s New Economic Plan” (NYT)Best of the rest“The New Headache for Bosses: Employees Aren’t Quitting” (WSJ)How corporate America is adjusting to a world of higher rates after years of piling up on cheap debt. (FT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      Trump Now Leads Biden

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      An analysis of a new set of New York Times / Siena College polls. When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he ran as the electability candidate — a broadly appealing, moderate Democrat from Scranton, Pa., who could defeat Donald Trump.There aren’t many signs of his old electoral strength in a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of the six states likely to decide the presidency. Trump leads Biden in five of the six states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — which would likely be enough to give him the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Biden leads in the sixth state, Wisconsin.Trump leads by at least four percentage points in each of the other five states:New York Times/Siena College pollsThe striking results seem to be more a reflection of Biden’s weakness than Trump’s strength. Trump is just as unpopular as he was when he lost the election three years ago, if not slightly more so.Instead, the change is the public’s view of Biden. During his time in office, attitudes toward him have turned decidedly negative. In the last election, voters judged him to be more likable than Trump, to have a better temperament and to have a more appealing personality. Those advantages have largely disappeared.Instead, voters say they are concerned about Biden’s handling of the economy and about his age. More than 70 percent of registered voters in the battlegrounds agree with the statement that Biden is “just too old to be an effective president,” up from around 30 percent in the run-up to the last election.Biden appears to be especially weak among young, Black and Hispanic voters. In a major departure from recent electoral trends, he and Trump are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-old voters, even though young voters have tended to back Democrats by a wide margin in recent cycles.Among Black voters, more than 90 percent of whom usually back Democrats, Biden leads only 71-22. He holds only 50 percent of Hispanic voters across the battlegrounds, down from more than 60 percent in the last cycle.A year to goWith one year to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for the race to change. In contrast with four years ago, the poll finds a disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied electorate, setting the stage for a potentially volatile campaign. And historically, incumbent presidents have trailed at this stage of the race, only to rally their former supporters once the campaign is underway.If there’s good news for Biden, it’s that his path to re-election runs through traditionally Democratic constituencies, like young, Black and Hispanic voters. The poll suggests that these voters remain open to supporting a Democrat against Trump. It’s still possible that a polarizing campaign — focused on issues like abortion and democracy, which divide the electorate along familiar and favorable lines for Biden — will allow him to reassemble and re-energize the coalition of voters who brought him to the White House.Nonetheless, the poll suggests that Biden’s path will be challenging. Nearly half of registered voters (49 percent) in the battleground states say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll support him, an indication of the depth of their dissatisfaction.At this early stage, I’m not sure how seriously to take traditionally Democratic-leaning voters who say there’s “almost no chance” they’ll back Mr. Biden. As the race gets going, attitudes might change quickly. But one year out, Biden faces big challenges to his re-election.For more: If you’re interested in a deeper look, you can read my full analysis — including the potentially decisive role of voters who say they would vote for Kamala Harris, but not Biden. And here is my colleague Shane Goldmacher’s news article on the polls.NEWSIsrael-Hamas WarIn the West Bank.Jonathan Ernst/ReutersAntony Blinken, the secretary of state, made an unannounced visit to the West Bank to meet with the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.Thousands of demonstrators in Tel Aviv called on the Israeli government to do more to rescue hostages in Gaza.Israel used at least two 2,000-pound bombs — the second-largest in its arsenal — in its airstrikes on Jabaliya, according to experts and Times analysis.A Biden administration official accused Hamas of delaying efforts to get foreign nationals out of Gaza by trying to put its wounded fighters on departure lists.Wrecked buildings and long lines of infantry: A Times reporter was among a small group of journalists who accompanied Israeli military leaders into northern Gaza.Politics“Like winning the lottery”: Conservative Christians are celebrating the unexpected rise of Mike Johnson, the House speaker.The F.B.I. is investigating whether Eric Adams, New York City’s mayor, received disguised foreign campaign contributions.InternationalUkrainians are becoming increasingly pessimistic about a quick victory, polls say.A campaign to legalize divorce in the Philippines argues that it’s an issue of basic human rights.Nuns tackled and gave chase to climate protesters in France, in an escalation of a long-running clash over a proposed megachurch.Other Big StoriesA special delivery.Callaghan O’Hare for The New York TimesA decade after it began talking about deliveries by drone, Amazon is finally making some. Customers are underwhelmed.The actors’ union said it was reviewing a final offer by Hollywood studios to resolve a monthslong strike.Workers in San Francisco have almost finished installing more than three miles of steel netting along the Golden Gate Bridge. Officials call it a “suicide deterrent system.”FROM OPINIONGov. Glenn Youngkin’s brand of conservatism in Virginia has an optimism that other Republicans lack, Michelle Cottle writes.The U.S. needs open communication with Russia and China to prevent another nuclear arms race, The Times’s editorial board writes.Here’s a column by Ross Douthat on liberal academia.The Sunday question: Could regulation have prevented Sam Bankman-Fried’s fraud?The former crypto billionaire’s conviction is a cautionary tale that shows “regulation is better than criminal law at preventing harm,” Bloomberg’s Noah Feldman writes. But while regulation might have stopped Bankman-Fried from embezzling funds, it can’t “prevent someone who believes they’re uncatchable from doing wrong,” Ana Paula Pereira writes for Cointelegraph.MORNING READSIn the Shetland Islands.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesWool week: Every year, knitters from around the world descend on a far-flung Scottish archipelago.Fall back: Many Americans bemoan the end of daylight saving time. Meet the ones who love it.Vows: As they supported each other through health crises, their relationship — and a “love plant” — flourished.Lives Lived: David Kirke was a flamboyant thrill-seeker who performed what is widely acknowledged as the first modern bungee jump. He died at 78. TALK | FROM THE TIMES MAGAZINECal Newport Mamadi Doumbouya for The New York TimesBack in January, I spoke with the computer scientist, podcaster and author Cal Newport about why the digital workplace can be such a drag.When I mentioned to a few folks that I was talking to you and that you wrote about work and technology, every one of them said they had problems focusing in front of their computers. So for people who can’t help cycling through their open tabs every five minutes, what’s your biggest piece of advice?The critical mind-set shift is understanding that even minor context shifts are productivity poison. We used to multitask, and then research came out and said you can’t literally multitask. Your brain can’t have your inbox open next to the memo you’re writing while you’re also on the phone. So if you have to work on something that’s cognitively demanding, the rule has to be zero context shifts during that period.You’re working on a book about slow productivity. What is that?Traditional economic productivity largely requires people working toward a singular measurable output with a transparent process. None of that works in knowledge work. So we fell back to a proxy for productivity, which is visible activity. If I can see you doing work, it’s better than I can’t see you doing work. Slow productivity is all about identifying alternatives.Isn’t a large part of the reason that so many of us feel a need to look busy that our bosses require it?So the term “knowledge work” was coined in 1959 by Peter Drucker in “Landmarks of Tomorrow.” Drucker is saying that knowledge workers need to manage themselves. Managers just need to set them up to succeed. But then what do you manage? Visible activity as a proxy for productivity was the solution. But what’s tricky about it is that a manager can’t just change. We’re kind of in a mess that we can’t change on a dime.Read more of the interview here.More from the magazineFor people in Bilozerka, Ukraine, the ​Russian invasion began a cat-and-mouse game of collaboration and resistance.If childhood obesity is an “epidemic,” how far should doctors go to treat it? Should bariatric surgery be an option?Read the full issue.BOOKSMarguerite HigginsYuichi Ishizaki/Associated PressNot invited: In “Fierce Ambition,” Jennet Conant recounts how the superstar war reporter Marguerite Higgins worked hard, late and dirty to thrive in a world rigged against women.Our editors’ picks: “Mapping the Darkness,” about the turbulent history of sleep science, and eight other books.Times best sellers: “The Woman in Me,” Britney Spears’s memoir, takes the top spot in its debut week on the hardcover nonfiction list.THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …Open your curtains by tapping an app or talking to a smart speaker.Invest in a quality pen.See Southern California beyond the freeway.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForThe New York City Marathon is today. Follow the race here.Donald Trump is expected to testify tomorrow in New York’s civil fraud case against him.China and the U.S. finish their weekend climate talks tomorrow.State and local U.S. elections are on Tuesday.What to Cook This WeekChristopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.In her Five Weeknight Dishes newsletter, Emily Weinstein suggests making meatballs, her go-to comfort food. Other ideas: one-pot chicken and rice with ginger and crisp gnocchi with brussels sprouts.NOW TIME TO PLAYHere is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was bookmobile.Can you put eight historical events — including the first known sundials, Mayan team sports and Morgan Freeman’s breakthrough role — in chronological order? Take this week’s Flashback quiz.And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. 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      in Elections

      A Shift in Gerrymandering

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      The end of a Republican advantage. Republicans have been more successful than Democrats since 2010 at gerrymandering congressional districts to their advantage. But the Republican advantage may be about to fade because of a few court cases.In Alabama, the U.S. Supreme Court forced officials to redraw the map to add one majority Black (and therefore Democratic-leaning) district. In New York, Democrats are trying to redraw the map to flip several seats. In Florida, Georgia and Louisiana, other legal challenges could help Democrats.If everything goes Democrats’ way, roughly 10 House seats could become meaningfully easier to win. Next year, the party needs to net only five seats to reclaim the House. New York alone could switch six seats from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat.Not every court case is hurting Republicans. In North Carolina, a ruling from the state’s Supreme Court will allow Republican lawmakers to redraw the map to move several seats their way. In South Carolina, liberal groups have taken the state’s Republican gerrymander to the U.S. Supreme Court; but the court’s conservative majority appears likely to side with Republicans, based on oral arguments last week.Still, the overall picture looks promising for Democrats. “The House map is pretty equitable now, certainly more so than it was 10 years ago,” David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told me. If the cases go in Democrats’ favor, he added, “it could make the House map even a little bit bluer on balance than a random map would be.”In 2022, Republicans won about 51 percent of the popular vote in House elections nationwide — and about 51 percent of House seats. (My colleague Nate Cohn broke down those results.)Swinging backIn some ways, the recent gerrymandering developments are the pendulum swinging back.States typically update congressional maps once a decade, after each U.S. census. In 2010, Republicans swept state elections just in time for the redrawing of maps. They took full advantage, drawing congressional districts in their favor.After the 2020 census, Republicans remained in power in more states than Democrats. But after the gerrymanders of the 2010s, Republicans could not do much more to skew the maps.Meanwhile, legal challenges from liberal groups diminished the Republican gerrymanders. Some states, like Michigan, embraced independent redistricting commissions that drew more balanced maps. Democrats also used their control of some state governments, including in Illinois and Oregon, to aggressively redraw maps.“Republicans are not the only ones who gerrymander,” Claire Wofford, a political scientist at the College of Charleston, told me.Of course, Democrats will still need to win elections next year. The balance of gerrymandering is likely to determine control of the House only if the national vote is close.What’s nextHere are three major stories to watch in coming months:New York: The case moving through the courts would likely affect six seats, the most in any current dispute. A lower court already ruled in Democrats’ favor, and the state’s highest court is set to hear the case in November. Republicans now hold 11 of the state’s 26 congressional seats. North Carolina: Republicans are set to redraw the map in the next month, and could flip three or four seats in their favor. Republicans currently hold seven of the state’s 14 congressional seats.Time: If Republicans stall legal challenges for long enough, the maps may not change before the 2024 election. “There is more potential upside for Democrats right now than for Republicans,” said Stephen Wolf, an elections writer at Daily Kos, “but there are too many unresolved court cases to say yet what will likely happen.”More on 2024Donald Trump has entered October with nearly as much campaign cash as the rest of the Republican field combined.Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia, a debt-ridden coal magnate who has switched parties twice, is running for U.S. senate.Polls show few voters are aware of President Biden’s record on climate issues. One advocacy group plans to spend big to change that.ISRAEL-HAMAS WARThe LatestAn Israeli airstrike Sunday on Gaza City.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIsrael and Hamas denied agreeing to a humanitarian cease-fire, and Israel continued to strike Gaza overnight.Western diplomats are negotiating to get emergency aid into Gaza and foreigners out through Egypt.Many Gazans are evacuating south as Israel prepares to invade the enclave. Hospital workers in the north said they weren’t able to move patients.Israel said Hamas had abducted at least 199 people, more than initially thought.Fighting has continued on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, and the U.S. is worried about a broader regional conflict. See maps of the fighting.Israelis are planning for a longer war despite having lost trust in their government and its intelligence services because of the Hamas attacks.International ResponsePresident Biden warned Israel not to reoccupy Gaza.A man in Chicago stabbed a 6-year-old boy to death because he was Muslim, the police said. The F.B.I. is tracking increased threats to Jewish and Muslim Americans.“Kidnapped”: In cities around the world, posters highlight the hostages abducted by Hamas.Many evangelical Christians are supporting Israel.Powerful donors, like Wall Street financiers, are pressuring U.S. schools to condemn student criticism of Israel.People upset about the attack by Hamas are leaving bad reviews on a Palestinian restaurant in Brooklyn.MORE NEWSPoliticsJim JordanKenny Holston/The New York TimesRepresentative Jim Jordan of Ohio is the current nominee for House speaker, but he’s short of the votes needed to be elected. Read what to expect in the speaker race this week.Donald Trump’s lawyers and federal prosecutors will argue today over whether a gag order should be imposed on him in a federal election case.Afghan EarthquakesTwo more powerful earthquakes struck northwestern Afghanistan, after recent quakes killed more than 1,000 people.Read about a man’s search for his son after the first of the tremors leveled his village.South American ElectionsA 35-year-old heir to a banana empire won Ecuador’s presidential election.The front-runner to be Argentina’s next president once called Pope Francis a “filthy leftist.” Some Argentines aren’t happy about it.More International NewsSatellite images suggest North Korea may be sending weapons to Russia, The Washington Post reports.Dariush Mehrjui, an Iranian film pioneer, and his wife were killed in their home near Tehran.BusinessThe pharmacy chain Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy as it deals with billions in debt and more than a thousand lawsuits over opioid prescriptions.Goodwill is figuring out e-commerce to compete with sites like Etsy’s Depop.Other Big StoriesThe new Nepal airport.Rebecca Conway for The New York TimesChina won an expensive contract to build an airport in Nepal, extending its regional influence. But the project left Nepal in debt.The Covid lab-leak theory has led to a lack of funding for studying dangerous pathogens, scientists say.Suzanne Somers, known for playing Chrissy Snow on the sitcom “Three’s Company,” died at 76.The American Museum of Natural History will remove human bones from public display. Some belonged to Indigenous and enslaved people.OpinionsMayor Eric Adams of New York has asked a court to suspend the city’s mandate to shelter migrants. But even when the migrant crisis fades, a housing crisis will remain, Mara Gay writes.The central cause of Gaza’s misery is Hamas, and Hamas deserve the blame for the deaths in this war, Bret Stephens writes.Here are columns by Nicholas Kristof on Gaza and Ross Douthat on Ukraine and Israel.MORNING READSJim Lorge and supporters. Todd Heisler/The New York Times“I want to be forgiven”: Inside a meeting of the Minnesota Board of Pardons, where supplicants have 10 minutes to make their case.The Piccirillis: How six stone-carving Italian brothers shaped the story of New York through sculpture.Waiting: With much of Hollywood on strike, many actors have slid back into restaurant work.Metropolitan Diary: Worst. Whale watch. Ever.Lives Lived: Rudy Perez was a pioneer of postmodern dance who challenged notions of what dance is, and isn’t, through minimalist choreography. He died at 93.SPORTSSunday Night Football: The Buffalo Bills narrowly defeated the New York Giants, 14-9. The Bills’ running back, Damien Harris, sustained a neck injury in the second quarter.Around the N.F.L.: The league’s two unbeaten teams both lost. The San Francisco 49ers missed a last-minute field goal in their 19-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns, and the Philadelphia Eagles were stifled by the New York Jets defense, losing 20-14. Here are takeaways from the weekend.M.L.B. playoffs: The Texas Rangers are still undefeated in the postseason after beating defending-champions the Houston Astros, 2-0, in Game 1 of the A.L.C.S.W.N.B.A. finals: The New York Liberty fended off the Las Vegas Aces, 87-73, in Game 3 of the league finals, forcing a Game 4.ARTS AND IDEASThe National Museum of Women in the Arts.Niki Charitable Art Foundation/ARS, NY, ADAGP, Paris; Photo by Lexey Swall for The New York TimesNew beginning: The National Museum of Women in the Arts in Washington, D.C., is set to reopen this week after a two-year, nearly $68 million renovation. The social context has shifted since the museum first opened in 1987, and women today are better represented in museums surveys and gallery shows. Is the museum, then, still relevant?“People in the art world always think we’re achieving parity faster than we are,” said Susan Fisher Sterling, the museum’s director since 2008. “We’re not even close to there.”More on cultureMadonna opened her global Celebration Tour — a spectacle of her hits across four decades — at a 20,000-capacity arena in London.“She understands her power”: Read a review from the critic Wesley Morris of Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” movie. (The Washington Post shows how much she has made from the tour.)THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …Kelly Marshall for The New York Times.Elevate a roasted vegetable salad with creamy coconut dressing.Wear cowboy boots without feeling like you’re in a costume.Bake on an inexpensive and durable baking sheet.Make smoothies in a blender that has been Wirecutter’s top pick for nearly a decade.Take our news quiz.GAMESHere is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was gravity.And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku and Connections.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — GermanSign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. More

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      Why Biden and Trump Are Courting Striking Autoworkers

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      The president and his leading Republican rival are heading to Michigan to address members of the U.A.W., whose political clout is growing.The political stakes grow as the U.A.W. strike drags on.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesBiden and Trump bid for blue collar votes In an extraordinary show of support, President Biden plans to join striking autoworkers on the picket line in Michigan on Tuesday. It comes a day before Donald Trump is expected to speak to union members in Detroit instead of participating in the second Republican primary debate.The competing visits come as the two home in on battleground states ahead of next year’s election. But their appearances also reveal a political battle to become the voice of blue collar workers at a time when both candidates are struggling to win over mainstream voters and even some within their own parties.Bidenomics is a conundrum for the president. Biden says he is “the most pro-union president in American history” and has overseen one of the biggest industrial policy shifts in decades through the Inflation Reduction Act, offering billions of dollars in subsidies to create new manufacturing jobs in a push to greenify the economy.But the president is getting little credit from voters. Approval ratings for his economic management are at career lows. And the I.R.A. is somewhat troublesome for him: It includes incentives for automakers to make more electric vehicles, which labor leaders say will depend on non-union jobs and require fewer workers.The United Automobile Workers union has held back from endorsing Biden. The group was an early supporter of his economic road map but broke with other big unions. “The EV transition is at serious risk of becoming a race to the bottom,” Shawn Fain, the U.A.W. president, wrote to members in May.Trump sees an opportunity to hammer Biden and the U.A.W. Trump, whose track record as a businessman and president often backed business over labor, will speak directly to workers, aiming to project himself as a protector of jobs. He has called the federal push for electric vehicles a “catastrophe for Michigan” that would cost American jobs, benefit China and raise prices for consumers.Fain has said Trump would be a “disaster” if re-elected. But the former president’s rhetoric and policies like rewriting trade agreements have appealed to some union members.Union votes could prove decisive in 2024. Trump won Michigan in 2016, but Biden took the state by more than 150,000 votes in 2020. In crucial swing states, even wooing a relatively small portion could be crucial. “In a strike situation, they’re all going out because they’re supporting their own economic interests,” said Alexander Colvin, the dean of Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations. “That doesn’t mean they all think the same thing politically.”HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING The F.C.C. is reportedly set to reinstate net neutrality rules. The regulator will revive Obama-era limits on broadband providers’ ability to unfairly interfere with internet traffic, after Democrats finally gained a majority among its commissioners, according to Bloomberg. Companies including AT&T and Comcast are likely to push back, arguing that such rules would be a big burden.All eyes are on striking actors as screenwriters prepare for a vote on their labor deal. Leaders of the Writers Guild of America are to vote on their tentative pact with studios on Tuesday, with members set to weigh in soon. But there are few signs that an agreement with the SAG-AFTRA actors’ union is close, meaning that Hollywood will remain largely shut for now. Meanwhile, SAG-AFTRA members voted to authorize a strike against video game companies.Fossil fuel use needs to fall more quickly to contain global warming, the International Energy Agency says. Adoption of cleaner energy technologies like electric vehicles and solar is growing, but the use of fossil fuels must shrink faster to avoid a climate catastrophe, the agency said in its latest report. Some industry watchers said that the I.E.A. is still too optimistic about the decline in demand for oil and coal.Senator Bob Menendez says he won’t resign. The New Jersey Democrat, accused of taking bribes, said he’d fight the corruption charges leveled by federal prosecutors. He didn’t address questions about bars of gold found on his property, but asserted that the $550,000 in cash found stuffed around his home was merely part of an emergency fund.Growth concerns hit the bond market Alarm bells are ringing for markets on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors have again sold off their sovereign bond holdings, especially Treasury notes and German bunds, pushing yields to highs last seen in 2007 just before the housing crisis and in 2011 during the European debt crisis.Growth concerns appear to be the culprit. Global trade fell in July at its fastest pace since the summer of 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic snarled global markets. According to the newest World Trade Monitor report, the decline is the latest signal that global demand for goods is deteriorating, as inflation and high interest rates remain at multi-decade highs.Jamie Dimon added fuel to the pessimistic outlook. The C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase warned of a kind of worst-case scenario in which the Fed is forced to keep raising its benchmark lending rate to combat inflation, further blunting growth. “I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7 percent,” he said in an interview with The Times of India, referring to the federal funds rate.Fed policymakers themselves don’t see such a scenario playing out. They released a forecast last week suggesting that one more interest rate increase was in the cards this year, and possibly two cuts next year, which would keep interest rates at around 5 percent by the end of 2024. But since the Fed meeting, the futures market has been pricing in higher policy rates for longer, and that’s adding volatility to the bond market.A potential U.S. government shutdown is also unnerving investors. The prospect that lawmakers will fail to reach a deal by Saturday’s deadline to fund the government is weighing on stocks, with U.S. futures in the red this morning. On Monday, Moody’s, the ratings agency, said a shutdown could lead it to downgrade the country’s credit rating — a warning that the White House seized upon in hopes of compelling the warring Republican factions to break their impasse on spending cuts.The good news: The uncertainty has put a lid on the oil rally, with Brent crude falling below $91 a barrel this morning, a two-week low.1.5 trillion — Gallons of water used in fracking by oil and gas companies in the U.S. since 2011. That’s equivalent to the amount of tap water used by the state of Texas each year, according to a Times investigation. The boom in fracking to meet growing energy demand poses a threat to the country’s aquifers, researchers say.ChatGPT, can you take on Alexa? Hours after Amazon announced a big bet on an artificial intelligence start-up — and days after it revealed plans to make its Alexa digital assistant smarter — one of the most prominent names in the A.I. race unveiled its plan to surpass those advancements.OpenAI said its ChatGPT chatbot can now listen to users’ spoken requests and respond vocally, among other new capabilities. It’s a reminder of how fast the race to advance A.I. is moving — and how high the stakes are.Voice is a more natural way of interacting with ChatGPT, according to OpenAI executives, who also said that their chatbot will feature voices that sound more natural than those of existing digital assistants. (The Times says that the voices sound better, but still come across as a little robotic.)OpenAI is adding other features to ChatGPT, including image recognition. One example that OpenAI demonstrated: Share an image of a bicycle with the chatbot and it will instruct the user how to lower the seat.Amazon seems aware of the risks of being outpaced by rivals. Unlike Alexa or Siri, which require users to ask specific commands, the latest version of ChatGPT is capable of more conversational interactions, including follow-up questions and clarifications. Wider adoption of that chatbot could risk Amazon losing its longtime dominance in the market for personal assistants.The Alexa announcement last week, in which Amazon said that it was incorporating the large language model technology into its assistant, is meant to address that eventuality — though ChatGPT’s new capability will be available sooner.With new capabilities come worries about new dangers. OpenAI executives said that they won’t let ChatGPT identify faces, though the software will be able to talk at length about other pictures it’s asked to analyze. There’s also the risk that greater use of ChatGPT will lead to potential mishaps involving the well-known A.I. weakness of inventing facts, known as hallucinating.And Amazon, perhaps leery of the well-publicized hitches that Microsoft and Google suffered in rolling out advanced A.I. features to the wider public, is making the new Alexa features available initially only to some users in the U.S.In other A.I. news: Meet the human workers training A.I. systems. Spotify says it won’t ban A.I.-produced music, but it will work with OpenAI to clone podcasters’ voices to produce versions of their shows in other languages. And New York Magazine asks whether Sam Altman, OpenAI’s C.E.O., is the Robert Oppenheimer of the digital age.THE SPEED READ DealsAmerican Airlines appealed a federal court ruling that blocked its planned alliance with JetBlue. (Reuters)Vista Equity Partners now oversees more than $100 billion in assets, reflecting investor interest in the big tech deals that are the firm’s stock in trade. (Axios)What’s at stake as Disney and Comcast prepare to negotiate over the value of the streaming service Hulu, which they jointly own. (FT)PolicyTesla is reportedly a focus of European regulators’ inquiry into state subsidies for electric vehicles made in China. (Bloomberg)The Commerce Department has hired veterans of Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs and KKR to help run its semiconductor funding program. (Bloomberg)Best of the restSan Francisco residents say that their city is being unfairly pilloried as a decaying, crime-ridden metropolis. (NYT)Microsoft is looking to power its A.I. and cloud data centers with small nuclear reactors. (CNBC)How companies are pulling off four-day workweeks. (WSJ)“The End of Privacy is a Taylor Swift Fan TikTok Account Armed with Facial Recognition Tech” (404 Media)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More

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      Is the Electoral College Becoming Fairer?

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      The Republican Party’s advantage is shrinking in the Electoral College. The Electoral College has been very kind to Republicans in the 21st century. George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 despite losing the popular vote, and Donald Trump did the same in 2016.But over the past few years the Republican advantage in the Electoral College seems to have shrunk, as Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, points out in his newsletter. Republicans are no longer faring significantly better in the states likely to decide the presidential election — like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — than they are nationwide. Instead, a 2024 race between Biden and Trump looks extremely close, with a tiny lead for Biden both nationally and in the swing states.A Shrinking Electoral Advance More