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      A Trump DOGE Dividend Could Raise Inflation

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      President Trump floated giving taxpayers a piece of any savings that Elon Musk’s cost-cutting generates, which could reignite inflation.President Trump’s speech at the FII Priority conference in Miami Beach was standing room only, with boldfaced names of the business world in attendance.Al Drago for The New York TimesDealBook’s Lauren Hirsch is in Miami Beach at the FII Priority conference, where President Trump floated the idea of sending Americans a dividend or refund check from money saved by DOGE rather than use all of it to pay down the debt. More below.Separately, since you may read about this elsewhere, I thought I’d share with you a secret I’ve been keeping: For the past eight years, I’ve been working on a follow-up to my book, “Too Big to Fail.” I’ve written what I think of as a prequel: a nonfiction, character-driven, behind-the-scenes account of 1929, the year of the most infamous market crash of all time. The book will be out in October. I’ll talk more about it then.Trump floats a new stimulus ideaPresident Trump swept into Miami Beach on Wednesday to speak at the FII Priority conference with yet another eyebrow-raising idea: using the savings he says Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team is finding to send taxpayers checks and repay the national debt.It isn’t clear whether this would actually happen. But Trump’s potential move — described to a crowd that included Musk; Eric Schmidt, formerly of Google; and Michael Klein, the deal-maker mogul — raises questions about the president’s economic priorities.What Trump described: forking over 20 percent of the savings that Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency initiative has cut from government spending “to American citizens” and 20 percent to paying down the national debt. (He didn’t say what would happen to the remaining 60 percent.)What is Trump actually trying to accomplish? He has promised to cut the national debt, though critics say his plans for sweeping tax cuts and more would aggravate the nation’s fiscal burden.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Is Russia Open for Business — and at What Cost?

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      Investors seem open to the prospect of peace talks, but Western companies face a dilemma just three years after many retreated from the country.The return of Western businesses would be an enormous lift to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. But would they dare risk it?Pool photo by Mikhail MetzelWe’re taking a look at President Trump’s plans to consolidate control over many of the agencies that oversee business, including the S.E.C., the Federal Trade Commission, the Federal Communications Commission and the National Labor Relations Board.For years, industry has complained about the alphabet soup of agencies, which often compete with one another. Some officials argue that is a feature, not a bug, while others have called for a complete rethinking of the regulatory apparatus in the country. What do you think?Meanwhile, President Trump is expected to speak on Wednesday at the Saudi-hosted FII Priority conference in Miami Beach, the event that’s increasingly a gathering of power players including Ken Griffin of Citadel, Dara Khosrowshahi of Uber and Masa Son of SoftBank. DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch will be reporting on the ground there and we’ll bring you the latest Thursday morning.“Incredible opportunities” Frozen out of potential Russia-Ukraine peace talks, European leaders are either feeling dazed or are fuming. But investors are feeling increasingly optimistic about the prospects of the nearly three-year war ending, especially as President Trump indicates he may meet with President Vladimir Putin of Russia this month.One big question is how corporate leaders feel about U.S. and Russian officials signaling that Russia may reopen to Western businesses. Concerns like the future of Western sanctions on Moscow remain unresolved, while companies may still feel burned by their hasty and costly exodus from the country.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Ukraine’s Equation

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      The West has fractured, and Putin knows it.For Ukraine, a peace deal with Russia is not just about stopping the war. A deal should also prevent the next one — by convincing Russia that its invasion was a costly failure.In that context, the past week brought a lot of bad news for Ukraine. American officials conceded that Ukraine would not reclaim all of its territory or join NATO. They also said that U.S. troops would not help protect Ukraine’s borders after the war.Maybe a truce would have eventually included those conditions. But by granting them now, the concessions push a peace deal in Russia’s favor — and may get Vladimir Putin to think that, after all of this, the war was worth the costs. “The United States is intent on ending this war,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers international security. “And ending it quickly likely means trying to end it on Russia’s terms.”Today’s newsletter looks at why Ukraine is increasingly concerned about a future Russian invasion.Imposing costsSince the beginning of the war, Ukraine has worried that an eventual cease-fire will simply give Russia time to rebuild and come back. So Ukraine and its allies have tried to prevent this scenario through two approaches.First, they have tried to make the war as costly as possible for Russia. On the diplomatic front, Ukraine’s allies have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. On the battlefield, Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers to death and injuries. At the same time, Ukraine has tried to retake as much territory as possible. If Russia ended the war with an economy in ruins, a colossal death toll and little new territory, it would likely look at the invasion as a mistake.Sources: The Institute for the Study of War | Map is as of Feb. 18. | By The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Elon Musk Zeroes In on the I.R.S.

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      The tech mogul’s cost-cutting initiative is seeking sensitive taxpayer data, drawing concerns about privacy, potential political retribution and more.Elon Musk, President Trump’s chief cost-cutter, has his sights now on the I.R.S., and Americans’ tax records.Eric Lee/The New York TimesThe fire hose of Elon Musk news continues: We’ve got more on the controversy over the access to sensitive I.R.S. data that Musk’s cost-cutting team is seeking and the resignation of a senior official at the Social Security Administration over a similar issue.And in case you missed it, there were two revealing long reads about the Murdoch family’s internal battles: one in The Times Magazine based on more than 3,000 pages of secret court transcripts, and another in The Atlantic that included intimate details directly from James Murdoch. Finally, here’s a great watch from over the weekend: Adam Sandler’s tribute on “Saturday Night Live” to Lorne Michaels, whom we profiled last year, during the show’s 50th anniversary special. Who gets access?Elon Musk’s cost-cutting team is continuing to burrow deeper into the federal bureaucracy in search of what the tech mogul says are trillions in potential cost cuts.But the organization’s latest accomplishments, including the potential gaining of access to sensitive I.R.S. and Social Security Administration data, have raised yet more concerns about how much power Musk is amassing — and what the consequences could be.The latest: The I.R.S. is preparing to give Gavin Kliger, a young software engineer working with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, access to sensitive taxpayer information as a senior adviser to the I.R.S.’s acting commissioner. The I.R.S. is still working out the terms of his assignment, but as of Sunday evening, he hadn’t yet gained access to the data.Separately, the top official of the Social Security Administration, Michelle King, resigned after Musk’s team sought access to an internal database that contains personal information about Americans.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Life, from New York

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      Our comedy columnist reflects on 50 years of “Saturday Night Live.”Like “Saturday Night Live,” I turn 50 this year. In fact, I was born only one week after its premiere, which means that along with being a comedy revolution, a career launchpad and a pop culture juggernaut, the show is also a good way for me to keep track of time.Every cast represents a different era in my life. I missed the storied original group — including Chevy Chase and Jane Curtin, both of whom will appear on a prime-time 50th anniversary special tonight — as I was busy learning how to walk, talk and eat solid food. And yet its jokes (“It’s a floor wax and a dessert topping”) were repeated in my house enough to make their way into my consciousness.It wasn’t until I was 10 that I stayed up to watch “S.N.L.,” during the strange and spectacular season starring Billy Crystal and Christopher Guest. I was the perfect age to appreciate Martin Short’s Ed Grimley, a giddy, prancing innocent who exuded the nervous energy of childhood. But it was the next hit era, featuring Phil Hartman, Jan Hooks and Dana Carvey, that got me hooked on sketch comedy. The cable-access spoof “Wayne’s World” showed up just after puberty. Perfect timing.Mike Myers and Dana Carvey during a “Wayne’s World” skit in 2015.Dana Edelson/NBCUniversal, via Getty ImagesJust as teenagers rebel against their parents, “S.N.L.” fans eventually start rolling their eyes at the show. In my 20s, I first indulged in the popular tradition of loudly lamenting that it wasn’t as funny as it used to be. I stopped watching and missed some of the best years of Chris Farley and Adam Sandler. I returned for the Tina Fey era, which ended in my 30s, and became a devoted fan of the cast that featured Bill Hader, Kristen Wiig and Andy Samberg. In recent years, the perspective and mellowing of middle age have helped me enjoy some less-than-perfect seasons. Yet my kids watch those same episodes with an excited fandom and snorting exasperation that I can no longer muster.The celebration of half a century of “Saturday Night Live” is a major event because the show transcends comedy. More than 26 million people watched its 40th anniversary special. This one feels even more significant, one of the last gasps of the monoculture. “S.N.L.” has been culturally relevant for so long that it’s woven into the background of our lives — continually reinventing itself, always there. The New York Times has tried to capture its impact on the culture in the past few weeks. We’ve singled out the show’s 13 greatest ad parodies, its 38 most important musical moments and 50 catchphrases it has ushered into our vocabulary. I explored how its cast members’ extensive history of breaking character has become an unlikely signature of its sketch comedy.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Love Letters

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      Mail and phone calls may be archaic, but they have lessons for us on how to be better communicators.A friend told me he recently removed the email app from his phone. “I used to love in the old days, coming home and checking email — there would be new messages!” he rhapsodized. I felt the pang. Not only would there be new messages, but often, in those early days of email, they were actual electronic letters from friends, replete with emotional life updates and unspooling narratives. Before texting, email was an efficient way to communicate, and the way we communicated was in sentences, paragraphs, fully developed thoughts. We hadn’t yet glimpsed the future where “k” or a thumbs-up emoji was considered communication.I’m always excited when people tell me they’ve deleted an app: another tiny reduction in the amount of time those in my orbit will be spending on their phones. Infinitesimal, perhaps, but moving in the right direction. We’re tinkering with these devices that own our attention, we’re taking back a little bit of control.But I’m particularly interested in modifications that can bring back some of the magic of pre-smartphone communication, when letter writing wasn’t quaint and voice mails were miracles. I’ve written about my nostalgia for phone booths, recommending we borrow some of the parameters they provided and bring them into this century (say, containing our private conversations to private spaces).Even if we’re nostalgic for the olden days, it’s hard to reinstitute the old habits. Deleting email from your phone may release you from the compulsion to check it all the time, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to come home to an inbox full of satisfying missives from your friends. Chances are, they’ve been texting you all day, and your inbox is actually full of spam and bills.In an attempt to reduce my phone’s grip on my life, I once suggested to a friend that each time we wanted to send a text to each other, we send a postcard instead. I think we tried this for a week before admitting that it was an inefficient way to chat. I was aware of the art-project nature of the proposition from the outset and didn’t figure our experiment would replace texting, but I hoped that the postcards would be so delightful we’d at least keep a parallel stream of slow communication going. It didn’t happen.A few weeks ago, I placed a phone call to a friend without warning, someone I’d never spoken on the phone with before. It felt a little reckless, a little rude, which made me want to do it even more, because it seems ridiculous that calling someone should be in any way controversial. It should feel wonderful that someone wants to hear your voice, that they were thinking of you and wanted to connect.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Donald Trump’s Chicken-and-Egg Inflation Problem

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      A surge in egg prices underscores how persistent inflation is spooking the markets and could check the president’s boldest economic policies.Egg prices are on an epic run, part of an inflation surge that could but the brakes on President Trump’s economic plans.Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJust in: Lawyers for Elon Musk said he’d withdraw his $97.4 billion bid for control of OpenAI if the company halted its efforts to become a for-profit enterprise. More below.Separately: You might recall that several years ago I wrote a series of columns, following a raft of mass shootings, that inspired the creation of a “merchant category code” for gun retailers so credit card companies could better identify suspicious activity the way they already did to help prevent money laundering and sex trafficking.Well, this week Representative Riley Moore, Republican of West Virginia, introduced a bill to make it illegal for credit card companies to require “merchant category codes that distinguish a firearms retailer from general-merchandise retailer.” That means gun retailers would be able to mask what they sell. What do you think of what’s happening?Scrambling Trump’s economic plans President Trump inherited a strong economy with booming labor and stock markets. But one economic holdover could tie his hands: stubbornly strong inflation.Investors are already getting antsy, with stock markets briefly plunging and the bond market suffering its worst day of the year so far after unexpectedly worrying revelations in the latest Consumer Price Index report. It raises questions about what options the White House and Fed would have to maneuver if prices continued to rise.The latest: The C.P.I. data showed headline prices over the past three months running at an annualized pace of 4.5 percent — well above the central bank’s 2 percent target.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Markets Play Down the Hit From Trump’s Latest Trade Fight

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      Global markets are in a wait-and-see mode as President Trump vows to slap steel and aluminum tariffs, among other levies, on trading partners.President Trump has ramped up the tariff war. This time, the markets reaction has been muted.Pete Marovich for The New York TimesHope you enjoyed the Super Bowl on Sunday night, and congrats to the Philadelphia Eagles. The ads were better than the game. We’ve got a rundown below.I got into a substantive debate on Sunday with Joe Lonsdale, the venture capitalist and co-founder of Palantir, and other investors, about how carried interest is taxed. President Trump has vowed to eliminate the tax exemption, which I’ve been writing about since 2007. You can read excerpts from the debate below.The new phase of the tariff fight Get ready for the latest round of President Trump’s trade wars.On Air Force One on Sunday, en route to the Super Bowl, the president said he would impose a 25 percent levy on all steel and aluminum imports and that reciprocal tariffs on trading partners were coming.China has already retaliated against new Trump tariffs that took effect on Monday, leaving the global economy to grapple with the reality of worldwide trade battles.The latest: Beyond the metals levy — which is aimed squarely at China — Trump is also eyeing broad tariffs on Europe, Taiwan and others, as well as on industries and key commodities like copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.Beijing has retaliated with $14 billion worth of tariffs against select American exports, including, coal, liquid natural gas and farm equipment, a sign that the trade war could expand quickly. “Trade and tariff wars have no winners,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Monday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More