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      Your Friday Briefing: A Times Investigation Into Bucha

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      Also, Benjamin Netanyahu is poised to lead Israel again and the week in culture.Russian paratroopers entered Bucha to gain control of a major route toward Kyiv.The Russians who killed in BuchaAn eight-month investigation by The Times has identified the Russian military unit behind one of the worst atrocities of the war in Ukraine: the killing of dozens of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.A team of reporters spent months in Bucha after Russian forces withdrew in late March, interviewing residents, collecting security-camera footage and obtaining records from government sources. In New York, the reporters analyzed the materials and reconstructed the killings along one street.The Times concluded that the perpetrators of a massacre along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment, based in the city of Pskov in western Russia and led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov.The evidence shows that the killings were intentional. Russian troops apparently killed the people as part of a ruthless “clearing” operation to secure a route leading to Kyiv. Some of the most damning evidence implicating the 234th Regiment included phone records and decoded call signs used by commanders on Russian radio channels.The Visual Investigations team identified 36 Ukrainian victims and retraced their final moments. For weeks, their bodies lay along Yablunska Street.These are some of the people killed in Bucha.The New York TimesMore on UkrainePresident Volodymyr Zelensky headed back to Kyiv after receiving a hero’s welcome in Washington.Zelensky’s address to Congress revealed hints about his worries for the year ahead, David Sanger writes in an analysis.The U.S. Senate passed a $1.7 trillion spending bill, which includes nearly $50 billion in assistance to Ukraine.Bakhmut has been under fierce Russian attack for months. But through it all, one snack stand remained open.Benjamin Netanyahu announced the coalition deal just minutes before a midnight deadline on Wednesday night.Maya Alleruzzo/Associated PressNetanyahu’s new hard-line coalitionIsrael’s Parliament is expected to ratify in the coming days a coalition deal that will return Benjamin Netanyahu to office just 18 months after he left. Netanyahu will lead a hard-line six-party coalition, the most right-wing administration in Israeli history.Netanyahu’s deals to cement the support of far-right coalition partners are raising widespread concerns about Israel’s future as a liberal democracy. Already, the coalition is pushing legislation that could upset the balance of powers between the government, the police and the judiciary.Understand the Situation in ChinaThe Communist Party cast aside restrictive “zero Covid” policy, which set off mass protests that were a rare challenge to the Communist leadership.Medicine Shortages: As Covid rips through parts of China, millions are struggling to find treatment — from the most basic cold remedies to take at home to more powerful antivirals for patients in hospitals.Traumatized and Deflated: Gripped with grief and anxiety, many in China want a national reckoning over the hard-line Covid policy. Holding the government accountable may be a quixotic quest.A Cloudy Picture: Despite Beijing’s assurances that the situation is under control, data on infections has become more opaque amid loosened pandemic constraints.In Beijing: As Covid sweeps across the Chinese capital, Beijing looks like a city in the throes of a lockdown — this time, self-imposed by residents.The country is also preparing for a constitutional showdown. Netanyahu is on trial for corruption. He denies any intention to influence the case. But some coalition members seek to legalize some crimes of which he is accused and to restrict the authority of the attorney general, who is overseeing his prosecution.Details: Future ministers include several far-right Jewish settlers who have a history of homophobia, antagonism toward Israel’s Arab minority and opposition to secular aspects of public life. One, Itamar Ben-Gvir, was barred from serving in the Israeli Army because he was considered too extremist.Looking ahead: The right-wing block would be Israel’s first ideologically cohesive government since 2019, but analysts say that will not necessarily provide political stability. Members frequently disagree over policy and took more than six weeks to formalize their partnership.This testing booth in Beijing was shut down after China ended its “zero Covid” policy.Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesChina’s censors in a tailspinSince China dropped its “zero Covid” policy, the country’s hundreds of thousands of internet censors don’t know how they are supposed to adapt or explain the abrupt policy shift.Many frustrated and confused Chinese are openly asking why they put up with years of restrictions, only for China’s leadership to abandon the policies and allow the virus to spread unabated. For now, the propagandists are trying to emphasize social stability.Cases: The W.H.O. says China is probably widely undercounting its Covid-19 cases, Reuters reports. This week, health authorities said that only deaths caused by coronavirus-induced pneumonia and respiratory failure would be attributed to Covid.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificThe police believed that Charles Sobhraj killed as many as 20 people, though he was convicted in only three killings.Prakash Mathema/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA court in Nepal ordered the release from prison of a 78-year-old French serial killer who targeted Western tourists in Asia in the 1970s and ’80s.Russia and China held joint naval drills in the East China Sea yesterday, The Associated Press reports, a day after Xi Jinping met in Beijing with Dmitri Medvedev, the former Russian leader and close ally of Vladimir Putin.U.S. NewsSam Bankman-Fried will be released on $250 million bail. Two top executives of his crypto empire have pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.Much of the middle of the U.S. is bracing for a brutal mix of cold, blowing snow and high winds set to arrive during peak Christmas-season travel.Elon Musk has reinstated thousands of suspended Twitter users. They’re back to posting Covid skepticism and election denial.The Week in CultureAmber Heard has agreed to pay $1 million to end the case.Associated PressAmber Heard decided to settle a defamation case involving her ex-husband, Johnny Depp.Dolly Parton’s theme park has transformed, over three decades, into a major Christmas attraction.Philip Pearlstein, an artist famous for his coolly observed nudes, died at 98.The archaeological park of Pompeii keeps vegetation overgrowth at bay with a low-tech solution: hungry sheep.A Morning Read“It’s worse than Covid, worse than energy costs,” a restaurant owner said of the labor shortage.Mary Turner for The New York TimesLondon restaurants used to recruit many waiters, chefs and bartenders from Italy, Spain and Greece. Now, after Brexit closed doors to migrants, eateries are desperately short on staff.About 40 percent of restaurants have curtailed their hours, and more than a third of restaurants, pubs and hotels could face insolvency or even closure by early 2023, according to a recent survey.Lives lived: Xi Xi wrote with playful humor and poignancy about life at the margins of Hong Kong. She died at 85.ARTS AND IDEAS“Panettone isn’t a recipe; it’s a lifestyle,” said Giuseppe Piffaretti, who founded an international panettone competition.Camilla Ferrari for The New York TimesThe fight over PanettonePanettone was long a symbol of Christmas in Italy, where the domed sweet bread, scented with spices and dotted with fruit, was wrapped and given as a gift.In the past decade, it has — much like pizza — burst past its Italian borders and gained a global profile. Panettone baking competitions have sprung up in Singapore and Japan, where one version is leavened with sake lees. Italians win most of the titles, and culinary schools and hotel chains have begun flying the winners to teach workshops in Kuala Lumpur and Mumbai.But the international fanfare is causing hand-wringing among Italian bakers, who are determined to show that the original panettone is still No. 1. Best-of lists and awards have proliferated: “This is a world championship, not a church bake sale,” the founder of one contest said.We have tips to help you pick the perfect panettone.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookKelly Marshall for The New York TimesThis brown stew with pork shoulder is spiced and pungent.What to WatchLoosely based on real-life events in an ultraconservative Mennonite colony in Bolivia, “Women Talking” depicts women debating their faith after a series of sexual assaults.What to ReadIn “Blaze Me a Sun,” murders and disappearances pile up in a small Swedish town.What to Listen toAn Indian American family celebrates Christmas with Bollywood music. Here’s their playlist.TravelLondon is too big to see in just a weekend. But you could try.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and here’s a clue: Old flames (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. If you’re celebrating Christmas, I hope you have a lovely holiday. — AmeliaP.S. Rory Smith, our chief soccer correspondent, hoped for an unsurprising World Cup final. This one was harder to cover, but way more fun.“The Daily” is about the political crisis in Peru.You can always reach us at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Was the World Collapsing? Or Were You Just Freaking Out?

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      What should we make of this year in America? There’s an argument that this is the end, or the beginning of the end, that the infrastructure of our democracy is crumbling, and that the jittery quality in the economy portends collapse and that the nuclear risk in Russia’s war in Ukraine could combust into something much bigger. There is, then, the counterargument that even with all these strains, we’re actually witnessing the system hold, that democracy prevails, that the danger is fading.Those arguments can register as hysterical or dismissive or out of touch, but they can also be considered in the most openhearted, late-night kind of way. Maybe we really are on the verge of something even worse, as in large stretches of the 20th century, and this is how people felt in previous eras that you read about. Is the world as we knew it ending? Would you even know, until it was too late, until it was actually over?In 2022, you could find the swings in discourse between apocalypse and dismissal, panic and caution, in politics, in the media, on Twitter and Instagram, over text, in person, within and between ideological factions, about war in Europe, about the state of American democracy, about illiberalism and the prospective retreat from globalism, about violence, about Covid, about artificial intelligence, about inflation and energy prices and crypto collapse contagion. There are deep versions of this debate, and reductive ones you catch a glimpse of in Instagram comments or in an op-ed that just gets it all wrong. This can even be a debate you have with yourself.You probably know about the apocalyptic possibilities for American democracy. Fundamentally, this country doesn’t work if the peaceful transfer of power does not work. This country doesn’t work, and didn’t work in living memory, if people can’t vote. And there might be a threshold at which it doesn’t work if enough people don’t trust election results. Those existential questions have now been channeled into concrete problems: In 2022, people called up election offices and left death threats; people in tactical gear staked out voter drop boxes; election offices installed bulletproof glass. Republicans fielded candidates in Arizona and Pennsylvania who ran on the premise that elections in this country were a lie. Millions watched the Jan. 6 hearings that delved into how chaotic and fragile the final days of the Trump White House really were.Then, in this fragile landscape of trust, there were the courts. In the summer, the Supreme Court fully overturned Roe v. Wade, a decision long expected, but one that still seemed to shock even the people who wanted it — even after the surreal publication of a drafted opinion in the spring. The fact that it really did happen — that suddenly a woman had to drive into another state to get an abortion so that she wouldn’t potentially die from complications — not only carried that kind of real-life consequence in a thousand private moments of people’s lives, but also opened up a world of other possibilities about what could happen. Maybe the court would roll back marriage equality. Or sign off on “independent state legislature” theory, an obscure theory adopted by a group of right-wingers that would grant expanded powers to state legislatures in carrying out elections and risk destabilizing the entire system.Accompanying all these events was a disorienting, high-stakes discourse about how to talk about conspiracy theories and antidemocratic threats, and about how much to do so. We know that what people say — what we say — on social platforms, and certainly in the media, shapes the way people perceive politics, but in a way that can be hard to measure — an awareness that can convert every piece or post into an opportunity or mistake. Writers argued that excessively focusing on democracy might alienate, rather than persuade, voters, or even corrupt institutions by intertwining constitutional and partisan concerns.Then there was the world beyond discourse, where no one could control much of anything beyond one man. For months, for years, since the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the West’s tepid response to it, people had warned that Vladimir Putin would eventually launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine — then it happened. Not many people in Russia or anywhere else seemed to want this beyond Mr. Putin, but that did nothing to prevent Ukraine from becoming the kind of place where a boy has to figure out for himself that troops shot his mother and stepfather because nobody knows how to tell him, where people had to drink the water from radiators to stay alive, where reflecting on brutal deaths in one city, someone can find themselves grimly observing, “In theory, international bodies have the authority to prosecute war crimes wherever and whenever they occur.” More

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      The Ideal of Democracy in a Jewish State Is in Jeopardy

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      Israeli elections can be dramatic, and its five elections within four years have been full of political surprises and firsts, including the first time an independent Israeli Arab party joined a governing coalition. This series of new governments and the sometimes tumultuous process of forming them are part of Israel’s proud tradition as a boisterous and pluralistic democracy.Yet the far-right government that will soon take power, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, marks a qualitative and alarming break with all the other governments in Israel’s 75-year history. While Mr. Netanyahu clearly has the support of the Israeli electorate, his coalition’s victory was narrow and cannot be seen as a broad mandate to make concessions to ultrareligious and ultranationalist parties that are putting the ideal of a democratic Jewish state in jeopardy.This board has been a strong supporter of Israel and a two-state solution for many years, and we remain committed to that support. Antisemitism is on the rise around the globe, and at least some of the criticism of Israel is the result of such hatred.Mr. Netanyahu’s government, however, is a significant threat to the future of Israel — its direction, its security and even the idea of a Jewish homeland. For one, the government’s posture could make it militarily and politically impossible for a two-state solution to ever emerge. Rather than accept this outcome, the Biden administration should do everything it can to express its support for a society governed by equal rights and the rule of law in Israel, as it does in countries all over the world. That would be an act of friendship, consistent with the deep bond between the two nations.Mr. Netanyahu’s comeback as prime minister, a year and a half after he was ousted from office, can’t be divorced from the corruption allegations that have followed him. He is now doing everything he can to stay in power, by catering to the demands of the most extreme elements of Israeli politics. The new cabinet he is forming includes radical far-right parties that have called for, among other things, expanding and legalizing settlements in a way that would effectively render a Palestinian state in the West Bank impossible; changing the status quo on the Temple Mount, an action that risks provoking a new round of Arab-Israeli violence; and undermining the authority of the Israeli Supreme Court, thus freeing the Knesset, the Israeli legislature, to do whatever it wants, with little judicial restraint.Ministers in the new government are set to include figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was convicted in Israel in 2007 for incitement to racism and supporting a Jewish terrorist organization. He will probably be minister of national security. Bezalel Smotrich, who has long supported outright annexation of the West Bank, is expected to be named the next finance minister, with additional authority over the administration of the West Bank. For the deputy in the prime minister’s office in charge of Jewish identity, Mr. Netanyahu is expected to name Avi Maoz, who once described himself as a “proud homophobe.”These moves are troubling, and America’s leaders should say so. The Biden administration’s main response so far has been a cautious speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the liberal advocacy group J Street on Dec. 4, in which he declared that the United States would deal with Israeli policies, not individuals. The new government has yet to be formed, so it is not surprising that the State Department does not yet have a well-defined position, but the administration has already discussed, according to a report in Axios, how to manage its meetings with the most extreme members of the new cabinet and which core interests to focus on.This approach understates the potential consequences of the shift in Israeli politics that this government represents. The cabinet about to take charge is not simply another iteration of the unstable, shifting alliances that followed the past four inconclusive elections. Those coalitions, like many before them, often included fringe religious or nationalist parties, but they were usually kept in check by more moderate political parties or even by Mr. Netanyahu over the 15 years he served as prime minister.All that is now threatened. Right-wing parties have an absolute majority in the Knesset, and Mr. Netanyahu, hoping that the new government will save him from prosecution and potential prison time, is in their power. Among the targets of the new leaders is the Israeli Supreme Court, which, in the absence of a national constitution, has served to weigh government actions against international law and the Israeli state’s own traditions and values. The nationalists would diminish this authority by voting to give themselves the power to override Supreme Court decisions. Not incidentally, they have also proposed eliminating the law under which Mr. Netanyahu faces a possible prison term.As Thomas L. Friedman, a Times columnist who has closely followed Israeli affairs for four decades, wrote shortly after the election results were known, “We are truly entering a dark tunnel.” While Mr. Netanyahu in the past used the “energy of this illiberal Israeli constituency to win office,” Mr. Friedman wrote, until now, he had never given them this kind of ministerial authority over critical defense and economic portfolios.This is not simply a disappointing turn in an old ally. The relationship between Israel and the United States has long been one that transcends traditional definitions of a military alliance or of diplomatic friendship. A body of deeply shared values has forged powerful and complex bonds. A commitment to Israel, both in its security and in its treatment by the world, has been an unquestioned principle of American foreign and domestic policy for decades, even when Mr. Netanyahu openly defied Barack Obama or embraced Donald Trump. As Mr. Blinken said in his speech, the United States will hold Israel “to the mutual standards we have established in our relationship over the past seven decades.”Israel has been moving steadily rightward in recent years. That is, in part, due to genuine concerns about crime and security, especially after violence between Israeli Arabs and Jews last year. Many Israelis also express fear that the peace process has failed because of a lack of interest in peace among Palestinian leaders, a fear heightened by Hamas control in Gaza since 2007 and a sense that Mahmoud Abbas’s grip on the Palestinian Authority is coming to an end without a clear succession plan.Demographic change in Israel has also shifted the country’s politics. Religious families in Israel tend to have large families and to vote with the right. A recent analysis by the Israel Democracy Institute found that about 60 percent of Jewish Israelis identify as right wing today; among people ages 18 to 24, the number rises to 70 percent. In the Nov. 1 election, the old Labor Party, once the liberal face of Israel’s founders, won only four seats, and the left-wing Meretz won none.Moderating forces in Israeli politics and civil society are already planning energetic resistance to legislation that would curtail the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court or the rights of the Arab minority or the L.G.B.T.Q. community. They deserve support from the American public and from the Biden administration.Whatever the contours of the new Israeli government, the United States will continue to be engaged with it on many issues of shared concern. Negotiations on a new nuclear deal with Iran are all but dead, a situation that poses a threat to security across the region. The Abraham Accords, while not a substitute for peace with the Palestinians, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. That is welcome progress, and the United States could play an important role in helping to expand them to include other countries, such as Saudi Arabia.While Palestinian-Israeli negotiations have long been moribund, the principle of someday achieving two states remains the bedrock of American and Israeli cooperation. Hopes for a Palestinian state have dimmed under the combined pressure of Israeli resistance and Palestinian corruption, ineptitude and internal divisions. Anything that undermines Israel’s democratic ideals — whether outright annexation of Jewish settlements or legalization of illegal settlements and outposts — would undermine the possibility of a two-state solution.America’s support for Israel reflects our two countries’ respect for democratic ideals. President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu should do everything they can to reaffirm that commitment.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Once a Figurehead of Change, Ireland’s Returning Leader Has Lots to Prove

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      In Leo Varadkar’s first stint as prime minister, he embodied for many his country’s move into modernity. But after several missteps, he now takes up the role for a second time, with the glow of optimism dimmed.When Leo Varadkar became Ireland’s prime minister in 2017, he was hailed as a fresh face in European politics, only 38 years old, his country’s first openly gay leader and the first with South Asian heritage — a personification of a rapidly modernizing state.Now he returns to office on Saturday, in a prearranged power-sharing deal, with that initial optimism dissipated, and with question marks over his judgment and leadership style.Mr. Varadkar, who trained as a doctor, was one of Europe’s youngest heads of government when he took over from Enda Kenny, then his party’s leader, who had become embroiled in a police whistle-blowing scandal. At the time, many Irish commentators viewed him as a breath of fresh air. He “comes across to the public, especially younger voters, as if he is not a politician at all,” the political columnist Stephen Collins wrote in The Irish Times in 2017.“In this anti-politician phase of Western democracy,” Mr. Collins added, “that is a crucial asset.”Much was expected of Mr. Varadkar as he climbed the ranks. The son of an immigrant — his father, who is also a doctor, is from Mumbai; his mother is an Irish nurse — Mr. Varadkar announced that he was gay in 2015 while serving as health minister. That statement, during a referendum about legalizing gay marriage, was cited by some as having contributed to the measure’s approval.Then, as prime minister, or taoiseach, Mr. Varadkar oversaw another referendum — and another cultural watershed in a country long a stronghold of Roman Catholic doctrine — this time to legalize abortion. That measure, voted on in 2018, was also approved.A crowd in Dublin reacting to the result of the referendum that liberalized the abortion law in 2018. The measure was approved while Mr. Varadkar was taoiseach.Paulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York TimesFor many, Mr. Varadkar, a conservative who had once opposed abortion and allowing gay couples to adopt, was a symbol of Ireland’s transition to a socially liberal, secular nation.But by the time Mr. Varadkar became prime minister, his party, Fine Gael, had already been in power for six years, and he could not shield it from deepening crises in housing, health and education on its watch. In the 2020 election, Fine Gael slumped to third place for the first time in its history and was forced into a coalition with a rival center-right party, Fianna Fail, to hold onto power.The coalition deal demoted Mr. Varadkar to deputy prime minister. Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail took over for the first two and a half years of the usual five-year term; now, Mr. Varadkar gets another chance.So far, his return to power has been marked by little fanfare, and there have been no announcements of major new policies, which would in any case have to be agreed upon with his coalition partners in Fianna Fail, the Green Party and a few independent lawmakers.Critics have pointed to Mr. Varadkar’s stiffness of manner and tendency to speak his mind, to the point of insensitivity, as counting against him in Ireland’s relatively conciliatory political climate.Last month, for example, Mr. Varadkar responded to reports that many young Irish people were thinking of emigrating to escape the housing and cost of living crisis by saying that they should not expect to find cheaper rents abroad.“The grass can look greener, and considering emigration is not the same as actually doing it, and many do come back,” he said in a radio interview.Traditional brick houses in Stoneybatter, a gentrified neighborhood of Dublin. The Irish government’s Central Statistics Office found that 43 percent of renters were thinking of leaving Ireland to find better and cheaper housing abroad.Paulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York TimesThose comments prompted a storm of social media posts from young Irish emigrants reporting that they had indeed found better and cheaper accommodation in major cities abroad. Critics noted that in 2021, Dublin was the most expensive city in the European Union for renting a small house or one-bedroom apartment — higher than Amsterdam, Berlin or Paris — and pointed out that rents in Ireland had increased by another 8.2 percent since then. This month, the government’s Central Statistics Office found that 43 percent of renters were thinking of leaving Ireland to find better and cheaper housing abroad.Lorcan Sirr, a housing policy lecturer at Technological University Dublin, said Mr. Varadkar’s comments portrayed him as out of touch.“The tin ear and lack of sensitivity to other people’s needs is fairly characteristic of his party,” Mr. Sirr noted. “Varadkar has had a fairly privileged housing upbringing in that he didn’t have to suffer the trials and tribulations that many young voters — now including many who would have voted Fine Gael — have to go through to find somewhere to live.”For the past two years, he has also been dogged by questions about the legality and appropriateness of his actions when, as prime minister, he leaked details from a closed negotiation with Ireland’s main doctors’ organization to an acquaintance with an interest in the talks.Without referring to anything in particular, this past week, Mr. Varadkar acknowledged his fallibility. “Everyone makes errors in judgment — you wouldn’t be human if you didn’t,” he told reporters, but he added that he was confident that he had the full support of the coalition.Whether the public is behind him is another question. At the start of this month, an opinion poll found that 43 percent would prefer Mr. Martin to remain Taoiseach. Only 34 percent wanted Mr. Varadkar to take over again. A month before, the two had been tied at 39 percent.Winning the next election, scheduled for 2025, looks to be an uphill battle for Mr. Varadkar. The agreement between his party, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail — also in long-term decline — was seen as an awkward alliance to check the growing influence of an up and coming rival for power, Sinn Fein.Mr. Varadkar, center, with Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail and Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Fein leader, at an election debate in February 2020 in Dublin.Pool photo by Niall CarsonOnce the political wing of the militant Provisional Irish Republican Army, which used violence to try to end British rule in Northern Ireland during the bloody “Troubles” of 1968 to 1998, Sinn Fein has sought to rebrand itself as a democratic force of the center-left. The party vows to solve the housing crisis by abandoning the reliance on private developers and landlords to supply properties, instead spending state money to build 100,000 new homes. That, together with promises to overhaul health and education, have won Sinn Fein considerable support.A Politico poll this month showed voter support for Sinn Fein at 34 percent, with Fine Gael at 23 percent and Fianna Fail at 18 percent. If replicated in an election, that would put the Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald in a strong position to become the first female taoiseach, and also the first from outside the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail political movements since the state was founded a century ago.After being in government in various roles for 11 years, Mr. Varadkar may no longer carry the novelty of being a political outsider, but his supporters say that he is older and wiser and has learned from his mistakes.Gary Murphy, a professor of politics at Dublin City University, said he believed that Mr. Varadkar’s main priority in his second term as prime minister would be to show he can guide his party to the electoral success that has so far eluded him.“In 2017, when he walked home in the party leadership competition, he was being hailed as a generational change,” Professor Murphy said, “but that hasn’t happened.”“He’s young, and he could still have a life outside politics,” Professor Murphy added, “but I don’t think he’ll want to go until he has shown he can do well in an election.” More

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      Your Friday Briefing: The U.S. Will Train More Ukraine Troops

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      Plus: Chinese companies are hit by U.S. trade restrictions.The U.S. said it would more than double the training provided to Ukraine’s military next year.Brendan Hoffman for The New York TimesThe U.S. will train more Ukrainian troopsThe Pentagon plans to train 600 to 800 Ukrainian troops — one battalion — each month in advanced battlefield tactics at a base in Germany, starting next year. That’s a major increase: Right now, the U.S. trains about 300 people each month.President Biden approved the broader training effort this week, according to two U.S. officials. The Pentagon has already trained 610 Ukrainians to operate an advanced rocket launcher. The troops have used the system to devastating effect, hitting targets far behind Russian lines.Next year, the U.S. will train bigger groups of Ukrainians on various strategies, such as coordinating ground infantry troops with artillery support. The decision to step up training comes as the administration is poised to send a Patriot antimissile battery, America’s most advanced ground-based air defense system, in response to urgent demands from Kyiv.Other updates:The U.S. announced new sanctions on prominent Russians.A Ukrainian Army surveillance team is using infrared technology to try to locate and strike Russian positions.Moscow’s propagandists are broadcasting clips from American cable news and Chinese media to spin a narrative that Russia is winning.Limiting the flow of technology to global rivals has become a key part of U.S. foreign policy.Oliver Contreras for The New York TimesChinese companies hit by U.S. trade restrictionsThe U.S. restricted 36 companies and organizations from accessing American technology that could be used for military purposes, in its latest effort to impede China’s development of advanced semiconductors.In October, the U.S. announced sweeping limits on semiconductor exports to China, both from American companies and those in other countries that use U.S. technology.U.S. officials say that China has increasingly blurred the lines between its military and civilian industries. In response, Chinese diplomats said that the U.S. “has been stretching the concept of national security” and “abusing export control measures.”Details: Yangtze Memory Technology Corporation, which was said to be in talks with Apple to potentially supply components for the iPhone 14, is on the list.Related: Years of Covid restrictions have left behind a collective trauma, Li Yuan writes. Some now want the government to apologize for its hard-line approach, a quixotic hope.Britain’s free health care has long been a national point of pride.Henry Nicholls/ReutersU.K. nurses strike for the first timeBritish nurses went on strike yesterday for the first time in the 74-year history of the National Health Service.The walkout is one of a series of labor actions taking place across Britain this month as sky-high inflation, rising interest rates and a recession put pressure on workers. Rail employees, airport baggage handlers and ambulance workers are also scheduled to stage walkouts over the next several weeks. The nurses are planning a second 12-hour strike next Tuesday.The labor actions come at a time when the health service is in crisis: There have been record delays for ambulance responses and a major backlog for medical procedures, among many other problems.Demands: The nurses are calling for a 19 percent pay increase and better working conditions, which they say will make the profession more attractive and help address staffing shortages. The government has said the pay demands are “unaffordable.”Quotable: “We were out supposedly clapping for our nurses and all of our N.H.S. workers during the pandemic, and here we are treating them like trash,” one supporter said. THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificFiji’s incumbent surged ahead after the app went down. The opposition leader had a lead beforehand.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFour political leaders in Fiji said the country should stop vote counting after the results app experienced a glitch, The Associated Press reports.India has successfully tested a long-range ballistic missile that could carry nuclear weapons, Al Jazeera reports.Around the WorldTedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the leader of the W.H.O., said that Eritrean forces had killed his uncle and 50 others in Tigray, despite a cease-fire.The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both raised interest rates by half a percentage point, in an effort to fight stubborn inflation.A U.N. peacekeeper from Ireland was shot and killed in southern Lebanon.Boris Becker, the former German tennis champion, returned home after he was freed from a British prison. He hid his assets in a bankruptcy case.U.S. NewsThe House passed a bill that would allow Puerto Ricans to vote on whether the island should be an independent country or a U.S. state. Elon Musk said he had sold another $3.6 billion of Tesla’s stock, perhaps in an effort to prop up Twitter. He’s now sold $23 billion this year.New York City will ban sales of dogs, cats and rabbits starting in 2024 in an effort to crack down on commercial breeders.Claudine Gay will be the first Black person to lead Harvard.The Week in CultureHarry spoke about his strained relationship with Prince William, the heir to the throne.Ben Birchhall/Associated PressIn the latest episodes of “Harry & Meghan,” Harry blames a tabloid for Meghan’s miscarriage.Adriano Pedrosa, who turned around São Paulo’s leading art museum, will oversee the 2024 Venice Biennale.The famously private author Thomas Pynchon sold his archive. But there are no photographs of him in it.Inmates in France picked a winner in an offshoot of the Goncourt, the country’s top literary prize.“The Little Mermaid” will be added to the National Film Registry, along with two dozen other films.Our Styles desk picked their best photos of 2022.A Morning Read“It’s a better hobby than playing video games,” said Talil al-Humaidi’s father.Erin Schaff/The New York TimesFalconry — one of Qatar’s oldest traditions — now involves modern training methods. Drones drag pigeons high into the sky, to teach the falcons to hunt.SPORTSIn the only other World Cup final of his career, Lionel Messi lost to Germany in 2014. Richard Heathcote/Getty ImagesThe World Cup finalFrance will play Argentina at 6 p.m. local time on Sunday in Qatar. (That’s 8:30 p.m. in Delhi, midnight in Seoul and 2 a.m. on Monday in Sydney.)Argentina will rally behind Lionel Messi, who has never won a World Cup. Now, he has a final, glorious chance at soccer immortality. At 35, Messi is arguably the finest player of all time.France, though, has his heir apparent: Kylian Mbappé, 23, who is the tournament’s leading scorer. France won the last World Cup, in 2018, and is now the first country in over 20 years to qualify for consecutive finals.What else: Croatia and Morocco will play on Saturday for third place.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookAndrew Scrivani for The New York TimesMake pancakes for breakfast this weekend.What to Read“Eccentric Lives,” a collection of cheeky obituaries from Britain’s Daily Telegraph, includes one about a viscount who shot at a hot-air balloon.What to Watch“The Volcano: Rescue from Whakaari” recounts an eruption off the coast of New Zealand that left several groups of tourists struggling to survive.ExerciseDo you really need to stretch?TravelIn just a weekend in Seoul, you can hike fortress walls, bike along the Han River and taste mung bean pancakes at a covered market.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Space between (three letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. Have a lovely weekend! I’ll be back on Monday. — AmeliaP.S. Sam Stejskal of The Athletic joined CNN to debate who’s the greatest soccer player ever.“The Daily” is about Russia’s draft. You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: China’s Snarled Covid Data

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      Plus France just beat Morocco to advance to the World Cup finals.“The statistics are meaningless,” an expert said.Aly Song/ReutersChina’s ‘meaningless’ Covid dataDespite repeated assurances that the country’s rollback of restrictions is under control, China has no clear picture of its Covid-19 infections.Even the most basic question of how many people are infected is hard to answer: China has relaxed mass testing requirements and made reporting at-home test results voluntary. Yesterday, the government said it would stop reporting asymptomatic infections, which made up most of the positive test results in the past.The country’s official data around Covid may be hazy, but there’s strong anecdotal evidence of a surging number of cases. Hospitals, too, are crowded.The lack of reliable information could have major economic implications. Foreign businesses and investors don’t know how long it will take for China’s economy to recover. And shoppers are still hesitant to re-enter stores and restaurants after years of enforced lockdowns.From Opinion: Abandoning “zero Covid” is a chance for President Xi Jinping to pivot from the perils of one-man rule, Minxin Pei argues.Other China news: Beijing will withdraw six diplomats from the U.K. following a British police inquiry into a violent clash at a demonstration at the Chinese Consulate in Manchester.Morocco supporters celebrated in Paris when the team beat Portugal to reach the semifinals.Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via ShutterstockFrance beats Morocco, 2-0France beat Morocco just minutes before we sent out this newsletter. The team will play Argentina on Sunday in the World Cup final.The first half of the game ended with France in the lead, 1-0. Morocco held firm, avoiding a complete disaster. Its magical run has elated fans: It was the first Arab or African team to reach the semifinals. France surged in the second half, when it scored another goal.Understand the Situation in ChinaBeijing’s restrictive “zero Covid” policy pummeled China’s economy and set off mass protests that were a rare challenge to the Communist leadership.A Messy Pivot: The Communist Party cast aside many Covid rules after the protests, while playing down the threat of the virus. The move could prove dangerous.In Beijing: As a wave of Covid sweeps across the Chinese capital, Beijing looks like a city in the throes of a lockdown — this time, self-imposed by residents.Importance of Vaccines: As the government drops its restrictions, it not only needs to convince people that the virus is nothing to fear, but also that inoculations are essential.Fearing a Grim Future: Even as China eases its Covid rules, the outlook for many young people remains gloomy, with few job prospects and high unemployment rates.The match was always about more than sports. France ran a protectorate in Morocco from 1912 to 1956, when Morocco gained independence. Many Moroccans in France still face racism and other forms of discrimination, and diplomatic ties remain complex.Now, despite its loss, Morocco has become the champion of the world’s colonized against the world’s colonizers­. Details: Morocco’s team had the most nonnative-born players in the World Cup. Fourteen grew up in Europe yet chose to play for Morocco. Some said they made the choice because of the bigotry they had faced in Europe.From Opinion:Before Morocco’s loss, Issandr El Amrani said he hadn’t seen such optimism in the Arab world since the 2011 uprisings.France’s team, full of players with roots in the former colonies, offers hope for the country’s future, Laurent Dubois writes.Fiji’s vote count is expected to take two days.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFiji’s closely watched electionFijians voted in a general election yesterday. The outcome could have major regional implications: The island nation has recently taken on outsize importance in the battle for Pacific influence between the U.S. and China.Under Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama, the prime minister, Fiji has grown closer to China. His challenger, Sitiveni Rabuka, recently indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji that is also trying to strengthen its influence in the Pacific.The contest could become volatile. Both men have been involved in coups: Bainimarama led Fiji’s last one, in 2006; Rabuka its first, in 1987. It remains unclear if Bainimarama would honor the results, were he to lose. Experts said that he could seek the help of Fiji’s military, which is constitutionally permitted to intervene if it sees fit.Analysis: Turnout was low. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” an expert said.In other Pacific news: Australia signed a new security deal with Vanuatu, The Associated Press reports.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificNew Zealand enacted a lifetime prohibition on cigarette sales to everyone born after 2008.Jason Oxenham/Getty ImagesNew Zealand’s new laws are aimed at eliminating most smoking by 2025, following more than a decade of public health campaigns.The Australian police are investigating the potential influence of far-right extremism in a Queensland shooting, The Sydney Morning Herald reports.The U.S. created a space force unit in South Korea, The Associated Press reports. It is likely to be used to monitor the North.The Group of 7 countries will give Vietnam $15.5 billion to help it shift toward renewable energy, Asia Financial reports.The War in UkraineMarco Hernandez and Josh Holder/The New York Times; Planet LabsRussia is building a vast network of trenches and traps in an effort to slow Ukraine’s advance.The U.S. is poised to send Ukraine the Patriot, its most advanced ground-based air defense system.Paul Whelan, an American detained in Russia, has no clear path to release.Around the WorldPeru said it would declare a state of emergency. Violent protests are raging days after its president was ousted.Iran was ousted from the U.N. Women’s Rights Agency as protests continue.President Biden vowed to expand the U.S.’s involvement in Africa yesterday in a speech to nearly 50 heads of state.Floods killed at least 141 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Other Big StoriesElon Musk stopped paying rent on Twitter’s offices and disbanded a trust and safety council to cut costs.Biden signed a bipartisan bill protecting same-sex marriages in the U.S.A U.S. prosecutor described Sam Bankman-Fried’s dealings at FTX as “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” DealBook explains.Brain implants have begun to restore bodily functions. But significant advances are probably decades away.OpinionsIsrael is about to have an extreme right-wing government. Palestinians will pay the price, Diana Buttu writes.Lev Golinkin asks: Why do Harvard, Stanford and NASA still honor Alfried Krupp, a Nazi war criminal?Conservation campaigns centered around individual species known as “spectacles of extinction” can distract from the larger biodiversity crisis, Michelle Nijhuis argues.A Morning ReadGomi, left, and Songkang are white Pungsans, a breed indigenous to North Korea.Chun Jung-in/Yonhap, via Associated PressIn 2018, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, gave two dogs to South Korea, then led by Moon Jae-in, as a symbol of peace.Four years later, South Korea is in political gridlock and the period of rapprochement on the Korean Peninsula is over. And the two pups, orphaned after a heated dispute over who would pay for their care, ended up in a zoo.PROFILEA Russian artist dissentsVladimir Ovchinnikov, 84, has long painted pastoral scenes across the walls of Borovsk, his provincial hometown, near Moscow.Now, his political art is attracting attention. At a time when dissent is being crushed across Russia, Ovchinnikov has been painting murals protesting the invasion of Ukraine. His own history drove him to denounce violence and war — he did not meet his father until age 11 because his father had spent 10 years in a gulag, and his grandfather and uncle were killed by the state.His work has earned him a reputation as the “Banksy of Borovsk” — which, he said, he does not appreciate. Unlike Banksy, the mysterious street artist based in Britain, Ovchinnikov works in the open. He thinks that his age and his family history offer him a modicum of protection. Still, he has been fined, questioned and pelted with snowballs.“I draw doves, they paint over them,” he said.Banksy: Last month, the artist painted seven murals in and around Kyiv. An activist incited controversy when he removed one of Banksy’s works, saying he intended to auction it off and donate the proceeds to Ukraine’s army.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJoel Goldberg for The New York TimesThis recipe is for a classic, unadorned latke. (Hanukkah starts on Sunday.)What to Read“The Tatami Galaxy” is a flamboyant vision of college life in Kyoto, Japan, full of obsessive subcultures.What to Watch“Blanquita” explores a sex scandal that sent waves throughout Chile in the early 2000s.Ask WellWhy do men sprout hair in weird places as they age?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Gold bar (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jimmy Carter announced that the U.S. and China would establish diplomatic relations 44 years ago today. In doing so, he severed America’s link with Taiwan.“The Daily” is on abortion in the U.S.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      In Fiji’s Closely Observed Election, a Former Coup Leader Is Ahead

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      In a region where China and the United States fight for influence, observers await results from the vote to choose the island nation’s prime minister — and to see if the outcome will be respected.It was a clash between two former coup leaders, set against the backdrop of a remote and palm-fringed vacation destination that has, of late, taken on outsized importance in a battle for primacy in the Pacific between the United States and China.And with the military constitutionally permitted to intervene if it saw fit, that contest was one with the potential to become extremely volatile.So, as voters went to the polls for the general election on Wednesday, focus turned to Fiji, an island nation known regionally for its stormy politics and which experienced four coups between 1987 and 2006. This was the country’s third general election since they were reintroduced to the Constitution in 2013.In preliminary results, Sitiveni Rabuka, the leader of the People’s Alliance party — who led Fiji’s first coup in 1987 — appeared to have secured a narrow victory against the strongman incumbent, Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama. Mr. Bainimarama, widely known by the first name Frank, himself seized power with the help of the military in 2006, before winning democratic elections in 2014 and 2018.The vote count is expected to take as long as two days, with ballots trickling in from outer islands and remote villages. The first set of results was delayed by a matter of hours, as the country’s election results app worked only intermittently. Late on Wednesday night, the release of provisional results was placed on hold as the Fijian Election Office contended with operational difficulties.But as of Wednesday night, Mr. Rabuka’s party, the People’s Alliance, had taken a convincing lead over Mr. Bainimarama’s party, Fiji First.Whether Mr. Bainimarama intends to honor the results remains unclear. Speaking to foreign reporters before the results were released, the former leader said he would “of course” respect the outcome of the election, even if they were not in his favor. He added: “Haven’t they got any intelligent reporters from Australia to come ask me a better question than that?”But experts have warned that Mr. Bainimarama may yet seek to intervene with the support of the military, with which he maintains a close relationship. The country’s Constitution gives final control over citizens’ “security, defense and well-being” to the military, a clause that is widely understood to mean that it has the right to intervene if it sees fit.Election officials preparing to open ballot boxes for counting in Suva on Wednesday.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“It will come down to how the military leadership sees it,” said Dominic O’Sullivan, a professor of political science at Charles Sturt University in Australia. Though the head of the military had in recent days encouraged people to vote and vowed not to interfere, he added, “You can’t take that as an absolute, unbreakable commitment, because it does have the constitutional power.”Before results were counted, Mr. Rabuka suggested that Mr. Bainimarama might appeal to the court system in the event that his party was not the victor. “I’m hoping for a flood of votes in our favor,” he said, “so that if he makes any attempt at going through that system, that course, it will be futile.”Fiji, with a population of about a million people and by far the largest economy of its region, grew closer to China in 2006 after an initial burst of investment from Beijing. The funding was particularly timely as Fiji faced damaging sanctions from Australia and New Zealand related to the coup in which Mr. Bainimarama came to power.The relationship with China could enter a new, more distant phase under Mr. Rabuka, who earlier this year indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji, instead of signing a mooted security pact with Beijing.The early election results come after a bitter contest and amid a government clampdown on supporters of opposition parties and the press. In one high-profile example, a pro-opposition lawyer who had made light of an error in a legal document was convicted of contempt of court, a sign of Fiji’s eroding civil liberties.With little pre-election polling, analysts have struggled to predict an outcome. For 48 hours until the election ended, Fiji underwent a media blackout, in which all political parties were forbidden from campaigning. Citizens were prohibited from making political posts on social media, displaying banners and wearing colors or logos of parties. Those who break the rules could be subject to stiff penalties, including prison.Even with little coverage from the news media in Fiji itself, there were early signs that Mr. Bainimarama’s support might be declining, including a dwindling voter share over the last two elections. There is also a sense of disgruntlement among voters about some of the economic challenges the country faces in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which devastated its all-important tourism industry.“The government’s been in office for a while, and people tend to tire of long-term governments,” said Professor O’Sullivan.Even Mr. Bainimarama’s government had sought to appeal to calls for a fresh face, running on a platform of reform, with the slogan “We are the change.”Frank Bainimarama leaving a polling station in Suva on Wednesday.Mick Tsikas/EPA, via ShutterstockTurnout in the election was also exceptionally low: Late in the day, Mohammed Saneem, the Fijian election supervisor, called on voters to come to the polls, with 51 percent of voters having cast a ballot as of an hour before polls closed. In the 2006 election, voter turnout was at 64 percent.The situation was concerning, Mr. Saneem told reporters after the polls had closed. He added: “Every Fijian had sufficient time to vote. We have significant numbers of people who did not come to vote.”The Fijian electoral base skews young, with more than 50 percent of registered voters being younger than 40, while 86 percent of candidates on the ballot are over 40. Mr. Bainimarama, 68, is a 16-year veteran of Fijian politics, while Mr. Rabuka, 74, has been a fixture of Fijian political life since 1987.The reluctance to come to the polls may communicate a wider sense of cynicism about the freedom and fairness of the election, said Professor O’Sullivan. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” More

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      Brittney Griner Swap Puts Spotlight on Americans in Russia

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      Westerners in Russia have to weigh the risks of living and working in the country against professional and financial opportunities there.MOSCOW — After almost 10 months of war, sanctions, nuclear threats and the constant monitoring of the Russian security state, some American and European citizens continue to live and work in Russia, drawn in many cases by professional opportunities and higher salaries.Some Western athletes, businesspeople and artists chose to stay even as the Russian authorities arrested and jailed the American basketball player Brittney Griner in February on a minor drug charge. On Thursday, she was freed and sent back to the United States in a prisoner exchange for a notorious Russian arms dealer, Viktor Bout, in a move that some Republican politicians and analysts have said puts other Americans at risk of being wrongfully detained for political gain.Ms. Griner’s detention has injected a complex new factor into the calculation of whether to travel to, or work in, Russia, an already fraught decision with the war in Ukraine as a backdrop.More than 1,000 multinational companies have curtailed their operations in Russia since the invasion, with foreign managers often being the first to go. Most Western universities have halted student exchange programs with Russian peers. And most major European and American cultural institutions have ended collaborations with Russian theaters and museums, including the Bolshoi in Moscow and the Mariinsky in St. Petersburg, two of the world’s most storied houses for opera and ballet.But in other areas the numbers of Westerners have held steady or even grown since Ms. Griner’s arrest. Most choose to come or stay to advance careers, but there are also examples of Americans who made Russia their home for political reasons. Most famously, they include the actor Steven Seagal and the former intelligence analyst Edward Snowden, who just this month took an oath of Russian citizenship.The actor Steven Seagal watching a military parade in the Red Square in Moscow, in 2015.Sergei Ilnitsky/European Pressphoto AgencyAthletes have long provided one of the biggest streams of prominent Westerners to Russia. Players “whose careers were declining went there to maintain the same level of income that they were accustomed to,” said Bill Neff, an agent with clients across the world.After the outbreak of the war, the Russian teams in the Continental Hockey League, which includes Russia and its neighbors, lost nearly half of its foreign players. Finns and Swedes led the exodus, largely abiding by their countries’ hard-line stance toward Russia’s aggression.But after the initial outflow, some of the European vacancies are being filled by American and Canadian players. They include Scott Wilson, a Canadian who won N.H.L. championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and an American, Alexander Chmelevski, both of whom joined Russian teams this fall.There are now an estimated 42 Americans playing or planning to play in Russia’s premier men’s basketball league, up from 30 a few months ago, according to tallies by American sports agents. An analysis of team rosters shows that there are an additional 29 American and Canadian hockey players who are signed to premier Russian teams this season, with some joining after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is even an American playing for the Russian woman’s basketball team that Ms. Griner represented before her arrest.The Release of Brittney GrinerThe American basketball star had been detained in Russia since February on charges of smuggling hashish oil into the country.Anxiety Turns to Relief: Brittney Griner’s supporters watched with dismay as her situation appeared to worsen over the summer. Now they are celebrating her release.The Russian Playbook: By detaining Ms. Griner, the Kremlin weaponized pain to get the United States to turn over a convicted arms dealer. Can the same tactic work in the war in Ukraine?A Test for Women’s Sports: The release was a victory for W.N.B.A. players and fans, who pushed furiously for it. But the athlete’s plight also highlighted gender inequities in sports.These athletes have stayed despite warnings from the State Department, which is advising all Americans to leave Russia immediately, weighing the risks of playing in Russia against professional and financial opportunities in a major sports market.Alexander Chmelevski playing for the San Jose Sharks last year.Jae C. Hong/Associated PressMany agents representing American athletes did not respond to queries about Ms. Griner’s detention in Russia. Those who did said the prisoner swap that brought her home had no effect on their work or their clients.“Griner’s case has to do with things that have nothing to do with basketball,” said David Carro, a Spanish sports agent representing four male American basketball players in Russia. “We never had any problems when Brittney Griner was there, and now, even less so.”“Our Americans get paid promptly and are living very well in Russia,” he added.Many American basketball players come to Russia to make money in the off-season or to prolong their careers. Because Russia covets top-level “name’’ players, they often pay high salaries. Athletes can take in more than $1 million and often receive free housing and cars.Mr. Neff, who represents about 30 professional basketball players, said Ms. Griner’s freedom did not lessen his caution in sending players to Russia during the conflict with Ukraine. He has discouraged his clients from going there and does not currently have any players in Russia.“I don’t think it changes anything,” Mr. Neff said of her release. “If you send someone to Russia, you know there are risks. Is the increased money worth the risk? That’s the choice you’re making.”The American basketball player K.C. Rivers, 35, came to Russia in August, while Ms. Griner was on trial, to play for the team of Samara, a provincial capital more than 500 miles east of Moscow.“At this point I didn’t really have so many options coming my way,” Mr. Rivers said in an interview in September. “What’s the best thing for me right now, towards — I ain’t going to say the end of my career — but in my career at this point? Financially, what makes sense?”K.C. Rivers playing for Zenit St. Petersburg during a Euroleague basketball game in Athens last year.John Andreou/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Russian basketball clubs are playing fewer games this season because of their suspension from Euroleague competition, a penalty that has diminished the quality of players the league has attracted, Mr. Neff said. And Russia’s hockey league voted this month to slash the number of foreigners that will be allowed on each team starting next season, an example of wartime nationalism sweeping the country.There are still a few Americans imprisoned in Russia. One is Paul Whelan, who was detained in December 2018, convicted of espionage and sentenced to 16 years in a penal colony; the U.S. State Department says he has been wrongfully detained. Marc Fogel, a 60-year-old history teacher, was detained in 2021 for having about half an ounce of medical marijuana. He was sentenced in June to 14 years in a penal colony.During a visit to Kyrgyzstan on Friday, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia commented on the possibility of new prisoner exchanges with the United States.“Everything is possible and contacts continue through the special services,” he said at a news conference.George Beebe, a former director of the C.I.A.’s Russia analysis and a Russia adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, said that while there were risks for Americans in Russia, he did not think the Bout-Griner swap had increased the chances of an American’s being arrested on trumped-up pretexts.Paul Whelan, an American imprisoned in Russia, in a Moscow courtroom in 2020.Maxim Shemetov/Reuters“For American citizens that are living and working in Russia, I wouldn’t say that there is no danger,” Mr. Beebe, the program director at the Quincy Institute think tank, said in a telephone interview. “Certainly there is. The Russian government is not likely to be at all lenient in dealing with Americans. They’re not going to give any Americans the benefit of the doubt.”However, he said, “I don’t think it increases the likelihood that the Russian government is going to arrest Americans.”Andrei A. Soldatov, a Russian journalist who specializes in the security services, said it was hard to make predictions when the rules of the game are constantly changing. During the Cold War era, he said, the rules were defined and predictable. But with the war in Ukraine continuing to escalate, diplomacy is entering uncharted territory.“We all have this temptation always to compare this to the Cold War, but this is nothing like that,” he said in a telephone interview.“The Cold War was a period when nobody wanted or was actually interested in a hot war. And now we have a really big war which might get bigger,” he said. “Nobody can actually rationalize or predict and develop a strategy accordingly — that’s a problem.”Valerie Hopkins More