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    Tariff Uncertainty Threatens to Drag Down Europe’s Economic Growth

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    The European Union scaled back its forecast for growth in 2025 by nearly half a percent, as the jump in tariffs and surrounding chaos bite.Europe’s economy will grow more slowly than expected this year, dragged down by trade uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs, despite increasingly stable prices on consumer goods and energy, European Union economists said on Monday.In its spring economic forecast, the European Commission, the trade bloc’s administrative arm, said it expected the gross domestic product of the 20 countries using the euro to grow just 0.9 percent in 2025, down from the 1.3 percent that had been forecast last fall. Economic growth across the European Union is expected to increase 1.1 percent in the same period, down from a previous expectation of 1.5 percent, the commission said.Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been hit particularly hard by the increase in tariffs, with the commission expecting that country’s economy to stagnate as exports decline 1.9 percent in 2025. France also had its projected growth rate cut to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent, and Italy’s fell to 0.7 percent from 1 percent.“Heightened global uncertainty and trade tensions are weighing on E.U. growth,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner responsible for the trade bloc’s economy, told reporters in Brussels.The commission added that any de-escalation of the tensions between Europe and the United States set off by Mr. Trump’s imposition of a 10-percent import tax on European good could lead to stronger growth, as could new free trade agreements with other economic partners.On Monday, Britain and the European Union reached a deal aimed at removing some of the barriers to trade that Brexit had introduced.Growth is expected to return in 2026, the commission said, but it also scaled that projection back to 1.4 percent for the euro area, down from a previously projected 1.6 percent.One bright spot is the continued robustness of the European labor market, Mr. Dombrovskis said, citing 1.7 million jobs added last year and an expected two million to be added in the coming year.Increased spending on armaments and the military could help spur more growth across Europe, the commission said. The 500 billion euros the German government plans to invest in its defense infrastructure were not included in the forecast for this year, but they were expected to contribute a full percentage point to growth by 2028, Mr. Dombrovskis said.Germany has been stuck in stagnation for three years running, dragging down growth across all of the European Union.The economists also warned that the threat of further natural disasters, related to changes in the global climate, were a risk to growth. Europe suffered widespread flooding and extreme heat in 2024, and the continent is bracing for more extreme weather this year. More

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      Tariffs Push Honda to Move Production From Canada to U.S.

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      President Trump’s trade war again tests Canada’s new government. Honda is also canceling plans for a major electric vehicle factory in Canada.In the face of U.S. tariffs, Honda said on Monday that it would shift production of one of its popular vehicles from Ontario to a U.S. factory and postpone an $11 billion plan to make electric vehicles and batteries in Canada.The announcement came less than a month after Honda denied a report in the Japanese media that President Trump’s tariffs would force it to pull back in Canada.It also poses a major challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, who won a stunning victory in last month’s election after portraying himself as the leader best suited for dealing with President Trump and the trade war between the two countries.The United States has imposed a 25 percent tariff on many Canadian autos and auto parts.Honda’s chief executive, Toshiro Mibe, said in a news conference in Japan that the decision to move the manufacturing of the CR-V sport utility vehicle to the United States was part of the company’s plans to “optimize” production to reduce the effects of tariffs.He blamed sluggish growth of the electric vehicle market for the decision to hold off on an $11 billion expansion of the Ontario factory complex, which would have added battery and electric vehicle production.The expansion, which was backed by substantial financial incentives from the governments of Canada and Ontario, was characterized last year by Justin Trudeau, the prime minister at the time, as the largest investment by an automaker in Canadian history. It was projected to employ 1,000 people and was the signature piece of a series of government-backed moves to shift Canada’s auto industry toward electric vehicles.The effect of the CR-V production move was not immediately known. But, like all auto assembly lines in Canada, the majority of the CR-Vs made in Canada are shipped to the United States.Honda Canada did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It currently employs about 4,200 people at its plant in Alliston, Ontario, which also builds Civic sedans as well as engines.Mr. Carney’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Honda’s decisions. He is set to swear in his new cabinet Tuesday.The announcement by Honda is the latest in a series of moves by the auto industry to pull back plans for expansion in Canada after the imposition of tariffs by the United States.Stellantis suspended the conversion of a factory in a Toronto suburb to make electric and gasoline powered Jeeps. It has shut down its plant in Windsor, Ontario, which makes minivans and Dodge muscle cars, for a total of three weeks and is also reducing its production schedule during the coming weeks.General Motors’ Canadian subsidiary suspended production of an electric commercial van in Ontario. Ford’s lone Canadian assembly plant, in Oakville, Ontario, has been idle for nearly a year after the company abandoned plans to make electric vehicles there. Instead, the plant will eventually start making gasoline-powered pickup trucks. More

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      Asia Stocks Rise on Hope for Lower Tariffs After U.S.-China Talks

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      Investors were optimistic after American officials touted progress in trade negotiations over the weekend, though details had yet to be released.Stocks in Asia gained on Monday after weekend talks signaled that progress had been made in easing trade tensions between the United States and China.Benchmark indexes in Japan and South Korea edged higher in early trading on Monday morning. Stocks in Hong Kong and Shenzhen in China climbed about 1 percent, while futures pointed to similar gains for the S&P 500 when trading begins in New York.Meetings in Geneva between U.S. and Chinese officials concluded on Sunday with Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, saying that “substantial progress” had been made. China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, called the talks “candid, in-depth and constructive.” Details are expected to be released on Monday, both sides said.The meetings were the first between Washington and Beijing since President Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent and China retaliated with its own taxes of 125 percent on U.S. goods. The tariffs are so high as to effectively block much of the trade between the two countries.The escalating trade war has left financial markets uneasy, and the meeting raised investors’ hopes that tariffs could eventually be lowered.Analysts at the financial services firm Wedbush Securities said the talks were a “positive step in the right direction.” They anticipated that an initial agreement, once unveiled during the U.S. day on Monday, would “at a minimum” involve a “much lower level” for tariffs.Economists have warned that the tit-for-tat trade barriers have significantly increased the possibility of an economic downturn. That includes in Asia, where some of the biggest economies, including Japan and South Korea, are heavily reliant on both China and the United States as trade partners.The World Trade Organization has forecast that the continuing division of the global economy into “rival blocs” could cut global gross domestic product by nearly 7 percent over the long run. Earlier this month, Japanese officials slashed their growth forecast for this year by more than half.Last week, China reported that its exports to the United States in April dropped 21 percent from a year earlier. Recession warnings are beginning to emerge in the United States.Heading into the weekend, investors had relatively low expectations for a breakthrough at the talks that would result in a meaningful reduction in tariffs. Many analysts expected the discussions to revolve around determining what each side wanted and how negotiations could move forward.Recently, Mr. Trump has opened the door to lower tariffs. Last week, he suggested that tariffs could come down to 80 percent. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News that so-called reciprocal tariffs on trade with China may settle near 34 percent. More

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      ‘Don’t Need a Deal.’ Top Trump Economic Adviser Is All in on His China Hardball

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      In a wide-ranging interview, Stephen Miran, the president of the chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said “volatility doesn’t necessarily mean anything greater for the long term.”The first 100 days of the second Trump administration have been a whirlwind. And Stephen Miran, the chair of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, has been at the center of what he calls “the volatility.” Mr. Trump has raised import taxes to levels not seen since the 1930s. And trade talks to roll them back — or not — are in flux, leaving the trajectory of the U.S. economy, consumer prices and global trade in limbo.Miran, a Ph.D. economist trained at Harvard — who is renown for floating the idea of a Mar-a-Lago Accord to “restructure the global trading system” — has been put in the position of explaining the president’s thinking and ultimate goals.On Wednesday, just before the United States and Britain announced a framework for a trade agreement and ahead of trade talks this weekend between the administration and Chinese officials, Miran spoke with The Times’s Talmon Joseph Smith at his office next to the White House. And he stood by the president’s unconventional moves.The interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.You’ve said in public remarks that you are not on the negotiating team, but as an economist, do you believe that this country’s economy can sustain what the Treasury secretary has called the “embargo” levels of current tariffs on China?Yeah, so look, the president has acted with historic scope and speed to put American workers on fairer ground vis-à-vis our trading partners. I don’t think anybody could possibly say that the policy adjustment was not historic or extraordinary. And as a result, there’s been volatility in financial markets. There can also be volatility in economic data, but I think it’s important to understand that volatility doesn’t necessarily mean anything greater for the long term.And so is it possible that economic activity gets substituted from one month to another? Yeah. Are firms waiting to find out the outcomes of the negotiations? Yeah. Are they waiting to find out that the tax bill is being passed and that we’re going to avoid the biggest tax hike in history next year because the president’s 2017 tax cuts are not going to expire? Yeah, they’re waiting for that, too.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      A CEO’s Guide to Surviving Trump’s Trade War

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      Randy Carr, whose family business makes embroidered patches, is always on high alert for the competition. But with on-again-off-again tariffs, he’s just trying to keep up with the rules.Randy Carr watched the news on his laptop the way you look at a doctor about to administer a shot — nervously and braced for pain. It was April 2, and President Trump was in the Rose Garden about to unveil new tariffs.An upbeat, slightly jacked 52-year-old, Mr. Carr is the chief executive of World Emblem, a privately held company based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., that produces about 150 million embroidered patches a year, most of which end up on shirts and hats. He radiates so much energy that even sitting down he appears to be set on vibrate. He’s intense about everything, including his diet, which he described one recent afternoon, karate chopping a tabletop for emphasis.Two hundred grams of protein a day (bam!), lots of vegetables (bam!), low carbs (bam!), no sugar (bam!). He gets up at 5 a.m. to lift weights every morning and runs five miles every afternoon.“It’s about being the best I can be every day, for everybody here,” he said. “I wouldn’t want to compete with this company.”His father started World Emblem in 1990, with two machines in a warehouse in a suburb of Miami. The company’s fortunes were improving by the time it opened a factory in Mexico, in 2005. Today that operation is the size of eight football fields and employs more than 800 people. In a typical week, it produces about 2.5 million emblems.World Emblem’s factory in Aguascalientes covers eight football fields.Fred Ramos for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Administration to Announce Trade Deal With Britain

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      A deal would be a positive sign for both governments, which have eyed an agreement since President Trump’s first term.President Trump is expected to announce on Thursday that the United States will strike a trade agreement with Britain, according to three people familiar with the plans.Mr. Trump teased a new trade agreement in a social media post on Wednesday night, though he did not specify which nation was part of the deal.“Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” he wrote.A spokesman for the White House declined to comment beyond Mr. Trump’s post. A spokesman for the British Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.The agreement would be the first deal announced since Mr. Trump imposed stiff tariffs on dozens of America’s trading partners. He later paused those temporarily in order to allow other nations to reach agreements with the United States.A deal between the United States and Britain could be a significant win for both countries, which have long sought closer economic cooperation.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Are U.S. Tariffs Affecting Your Business? We Want to Hear From You.

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      The New York Times wants to hear from European business owners about how they are navigating the uncertainty of President Trump’s tariffs.President Trump’s trade war has created chaos for companies around the world, snarling supply chains, sowing uncertainty and muddling their ability to plan for the future.After announcing tariffs that started at 20 percent for nearly all imports from European Union members — and more on other countries — the president has scaled the rate to 10 percent until July, saying his administration will use the time to negotiate bilateral deals with America’s trading partners. At the same time, Mr. Trump has escalated a trade war with China, potentially squeezing European companies.We are a team of reporters who write about business and economic issues in Europe for The New York Times. In recent weeks, we have covered how tariffs have been affecting the car industry, financial markets and economic expectations for European countries.To better understand the impact the tariffs are having on companies in Europe, including Britain, we would like to hear from business owners, entrepreneurs, managers and employees. How might the import taxes affect your company or job? Have you delayed hiring, postponed expansion plans or canceled orders? Have you altered your supply chains? We would also like to hear what tariffs mean for your production, and whether you are considering moving some part of it to the United States.We will read every response and reach out if we are interested in learning more. We won’t publish any part of your response without contacting you first and obtaining your consent. Your contact information will not be shared outside The Times newsroom and we will use it only to get in touch with you. More

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      TikTok, Facing a U.S. Ban, Tells Advertisers: We’re Here and Confident

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      The company’s executives tried to reassure potential advertisers about the app’s future in the United States without directly addressing a looming ban under a federal law.“TikTok is here — we are here,” Khartoon Weiss, the company’s vice president of global business solutions, told a packed warehouse of advertisers on Tuesday in Manhattan.“We are absolutely confident in our platform and confident in the future of this platform,” she declared.That statement was the closest TikTok advertising executives got to addressing the app’s uncertain fate in the United States in the company’s annual spring pitch to marketers. Under a federal law and executive order, the app is set to be banned in the country next month if the Chinese owner of the company, ByteDance, does not sell it.Hundreds of representatives from companies like L’Oreal and Unilever and various ad agencies scrambled to find seats for an event hosted by the comedian Hasan Minhaj that heavily emphasized TikTok’s role as a cultural juggernaut.TikTok was more than a video platform, Mr. Minhaj told the crowd. TikTok was “the cultural moments you talk about at work, the jokes you talk about in your group chat, the language you use in your everyday life,” he said.The tone of the event marked a departure from TikTok’s presentation a year ago, when the company was smarting from the federal law that promised to ban the app in the United States because of national security concerns related to the company’s Chinese ownership. Last year’s pitch started with one of TikTok’s top executives telling roughly 300 attendees that the company would fight the law in court and prevail and was “not backing down.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      India and UK Strike Trade Deal Amid Trump’s Tariff Upheaval

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      The two countries signed a deal three years after negotiations began to strengthen alliances in what the British prime minister called a “new era” of trade.Britain and India agreed to a trade deal on Tuesday, strengthening economic ties between two of the world’s largest economies amid President Trump’s upheaval of the global trade system.The deal, which the British government said would increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion ($34 billion), comes three years after the negotiations began. Intense talks between Jonathan Reynolds, Britain’s business and trade secretary, and Piyush Goyal, India’s commerce minister, took place last week to finalize the outstanding issues.The British government said India had reduced 90 percent of tariffs on goods, and within a decade most of those would become tariff free. Duties on British whiskey and gin would be halved, to 75 percent, and eventually be lowered to 40 percent. India will also reduce its car tariffs, which exceed 100 percent, to 10 percent under a quota. Britain, in turn, reduced tariffs on clothes, footwear and food products including frozen prawns.Last year, trade in goods and services between India and Britain, the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies, totaled £42.6 billion, according to British data.The trade agreement comes as many countries are seeking to bolster alliances and trade flows after Mr. Trump sent shock waves through the global economy by announcing, and then pausing, high tariffs on dozens of countries. The uncertainty created by the policy whiplash is expected to dampen investment and economic growth around the world.Officials in Britain, which squeezed out 0.1 percent economic growth in the final quarter of last year, have tried to increase investment from foreign companies and sign more trade deals. Other negotiations, including those with South Korea, are continuing.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More