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    Are Trump’s Tariffs Inevitable?

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    World leaders and C.E.O.s are struggling to convince President-elect Donald Trump to shift his position on imposing new levies against America’s trade partners and its rivals.Advisers for Donald Trump are telling businesses to take the president-elect at his word on tariffs.Doug Mills/The New York TimesUnyielding on tariffs Investors appear largely unfazed by President-elect Donald Trump’s tough talk on tariffs, with the S&P 500 up more than 5 percent since Election Day.But world leaders and C.E.O.s are worried he could disrupt global trade and pummel profits — and feel they’re making little headway in warning him of the consequences.Companies have stepped up their lobbying to persuade Trump to go easy on tariffs, according to The Wall Street Journal. The president-elect warned last month that he would impose 25 percent levies on the country’s biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, if they didn’t tighten their borders and stem the flow of illegal migration to the U.S.In subsequent social media posts, he went after China and BRICS countries, too.Trump’s team is warning businesses to take him at his word on tariffs, The Journal reports. That suggests that Trump, who has called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” isn’t merely using tariff warnings as an opening salvo in trade negotiations.It also calls into question how much say Jamieson Greer, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio — Trump’s picks for trade representative, and to run the Treasury, Commerce and State departments — will have in shaping Trump’s trade policy if his mind is already made up.Trump conceded that he “can’t guarantee” tariffs won’t hit consumers hard. That’s a concern among economists and big companies such as Walmart and Costco, who fear that levies could lead to price rises. This earnings season, analysts have been peppering corporate leaders about how tariffs might affect their businesses.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Canada’s Plan To Avoid Trump’s Tariffs Takes Shape

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      Two weeks after a Mar-a-Lago dinner with Donald J. Trump, details of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to stave off a showdown with the United States are emerging.Canada is working on a broad plan, including drones and police dogs, to address concerns raised by President-elect Donald J. Trump about the shared border between the two nations, underscoring the urgency of avoiding threatened tariffs that would send its economy into meltdown. Mr. Trump has made it clear that he expects America’s neighbors to keep undocumented migrants and drugs from entering the United States. In a closely watched meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and the leaders of the country’s provinces on Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau and senior members of his government said that they would come up with measures to fortify the border. The Canadian government will flesh out details, figure out a price tag, establish a timeline and then present the plan to the incoming Trump administration before Mr. Trump’s inauguration next month, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions, who asked not to be identified describing internal deliberations. Details of the costs of these measures will be shared on Monday, when the country’s finance minister announces an interim budget, the officials said. The measures under consideration include better controlling border crossings by deploying drones and canine units and reducing unnecessary foot traffic between the two countries, according to the two officials, who listened in on the virtual government meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Oil Markets Shrug Off Overthrow of Syria’s al-Assad

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      Oil markets have shown little reaction to the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, as traders most likely calculated that Syria was only a modest producer and that events there did not immediately threaten exports from the wider region.In trading on Monday, Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, rose about 1 percent, to $71.80 a barrel.Syria has modest oil reserves, and President-elect Donald J. Trump said during his first presidency that they should be secured, but markets were largely shrugging off the risk that conflict in the Middle East could lead to disruption of supplies. There are about 900 U.S. troops in Syria.In more than a year since Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel from Gaza, there has been little interruption to flows of oil and natural gas, beyond rerouting tanker traffic to avoid attacks by Houthi fighters in Yemen.The markets have instead focused on the tepid growth of global demand that can probably be met by new supplies from the United States, Brazil, Canada and other producers not bound by the agreements of the OPEC Plus cartel.On Thursday, OPEC Plus pushed back plans to increase output to at least the second quarter of next year, the third delay in recent months.Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, a research firm, said, “There’s still a residual view that the oil market will be oversupplied next year.” He added that traders were worried that Mr. Trump’s policies would push oil prices lower “whether due to higher U.S. production or tariffs disrupting economic activity.”Mr. Bronze said he thought that those theories would prove incorrect, but “the market will have to see it to believe it.”Syria is in the neighborhood of large oil producers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but its own production has been sharply curtailed by a decade of civil war.In 2023, Syria produced 40,000 barrels of oil a day — a trickle relative to major oil producers, according to the Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, a London-based nonprofit.In the early 2000s, Syria pumped more than 600,000 barrels a day, comparable to midsize producers like Azerbaijan or Egypt. That performance gives hope that with a stable political environment and improved management, oil sales could be an important source of revenue for a future Syrian government. More

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      As Trump Threatens Tariffs, Europe and South America Strengthen Ties

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      The European Union and five South American countries have reached an agreement to establish one of the largest trade zones in the world.The European Union reached a major trade deal on Friday with five South American countries, concluding a long-delayed negotiation that took on new urgency as President-elect Donald J. Trump threatens to impose tariffs on some of the world’s largest economies.The deal, between the European Union and members of Mercosur — a bloc that includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — would establish one of the largest trade zones in the world, and would be the European Union’s biggest trade agreement ever.With European leaders preparing for the possibility that Mr. Trump’s return to office will lead to a more fragmented global economy, the deal is a significant victory for proponents of free trade, linking markets with 780 million people. But it could fuel frustration within the European bloc, with France opposed to the agreement over concerns about the possible dumping of cheap agricultural imports in Europe, which could hurt competition.Here’s what you need to know:What’s in the trade deal?A boon for European carmakers and others.France opposes the deal out of concern for farmers.What’s in the trade deal?If ratified, the agreement would lift tariffs on products including meat, cars, wine and chocolate. A date for the ratification vote has not yet been set. France has strongly opposed the agreement, but Paris does not appear to have persuaded enough other European countries to vote against it.With Mr. Trump’s election, Europe is facing the threat of high tariffs on exports to the United States, its biggest trading partner, and increased competition from China. Mr. Trump has suggested that he would impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on products around the world and tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trudeau Goes to Mar-a-Lago to See Trump Amid Tariff Concerns

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      Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada is the first G7 leader to visit President-elect Donald J. Trump in Florida since the election. He is under pressure to persuade Mr. Trump to back down from his tariff threat.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada on Friday night landed in Florida to see President-elect Donald J. Trump at Mar-a-Lago, two officials with direct knowledge of the visit said, after a threat by Mr. Trump to impose across-the-board tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Day 1.The visit makes Mr. Trudeau the first head of government from the Group of 7, a key forum of global coordination consisting of the world’s wealthiest democracies, to visit the president-elect.Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump were to dine together on Friday evening, one official said, along with a delegation of senior Trump allies poised for top trade and security positions in his new administration.Mr. Trudeau was accompanied on his visit by Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister of public safety. The Canadian prime minister was expected to stay in the area overnight, but not at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s private club and home in Palm Beach, Fla.The Trump transition team did not respond to requests for comment, and there was no information released about Mr. Trump’s schedule on Friday.Mr. Trudeau has been scrambling to formulate a plan to respond to the threat made this week by Mr. Trump to impose a 25 percent tariff unless Mexico and Canada take action to curb the arrival of undocumented migrants and drugs across their borders into the United States.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Mexico’s President and Trump Describe a Positive Talk but Differ on Migration Details

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      Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, spoke to President-elect Donald J. Trump on Wednesday afternoon, and both later characterized their discussion as positive while providing different descriptions of what Mexico is doing to stave off a potential tariff war.While Mr. Trump posted on social media that Mexico had agreed to stop migration to the United States through Mexico, “effectively closing our Southern Border,” Ms. Sheinbaum limited her description of the migration-related issues they had discussed to migrant caravans no longer reaching the border with the United States.Still, Ms. Sheinbaum, who earlier in the day had made clear that Mexico would impose retaliatory tariffs in response to similar measures threatened by Mr. Trump, seemed to ease tensions by saying the exchange was “excellent.”“I had an excellent conversation with President Donald Trump,” she wrote on social media. “We addressed Mexico’s strategy regarding the migration phenomenon, and I shared that caravans are no longer reaching the northern border as they are being addressed within Mexico.”That update from Ms. Sheinbaum came after Mr. Trump jolted trade relations with Mexico by saying earlier in the week that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from the country unless Mexican authorities stopped migrants and drugs, such as fentanyl, from coming across the border. The proposed move raised concerns over the potential impact on Mexico’s economy, which relies on trade with the United States.Mr. Trump also posted on social media about the conversation with Ms. Sheinbaum, calling it “wonderful” and “productive.”“She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” Mr. Trump said, though Ms. Sheinbaum referred only to the caravans. “We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs,” he added.Ms. Sheinbaum said earlier on Wednesday, “If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs” — making clear her stance on Mexico’s potential response.Senior officials in her government and leading figures in Mexico’s governing party, Morena, also expressed support for retaliatory tariffs. Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said that about 400,000 jobs could be lost in the United States if Mr. Trump imposed the tariffs, calling the measure a “shot in the foot” while speaking alongside Ms. Sheinbaum at a morning news conference.Mexico’s president did not refer to tariffs, or trade tensions in general, in her post about her conversation with Mr. Trump. Instead, she said she and Mr. Trump had “discussed strengthening collaboration on security issues within the framework of our sovereignty and the campaign we are conducting in Mexico to prevent fentanyl consumption.” More

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      ‘Excelente’: así fue la llamada de Sheinbaum y Trump tras la discusión arancelaria

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      La presidenta de México dijo que habló con el presidente electo de EE. UU. sobre temas como migración y seguridad.La presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum, dijo el miércoles por la tarde que tuvo una “excelente conversación” con el presidente electo Donald Trump, aliviando las tensiones pocas horas después de dejar claro que México impondría aranceles de represalia en respuesta a medidas similares anunciadas por Trump.“Tuve una excelente conversación con el presidente Donald Trump”, escribió Sheinbaum en redes sociales. “Abordamos la estrategia mexicana sobre el fenómeno de la migración y compartí que no están llegando caravanas a la frontera norte, porque son atendidas en México”.La actualización de Sheinbaum se produce después de que Trump sacudió las relaciones comerciales con México al decir a principios de esta semana que impondría un arancel de 25 por ciento a todos los productos procedentes del país si las autoridades mexicanas no detenían a los migrantes y las drogas, como el fentanilo, que cruzan la frontera. La medida suscitó preocupación por el posible impacto en la economía de México, que depende del comercio con Estados Unidos.Trump también publicó en las redes sociales sobre la conversación con Sheinbaum, calificándola de “maravillosa” y “productiva.”“Ella ha accedido detener la migración a través de México, y hacia Estados Unidos, cerrando efectivamente nuestra frontera sur”, dijo Trump, aunque Sheinbaum se refirió solo a que las caravanas de migrantes ya no llegan a la frontera con Estados Unidos. “También hablamos de lo que se puede hacer para detener la entrada masiva de drogas a Estados Unidos, y también, el consumo estadounidense de estas drogas”, agregó.Sheinbaum dijo previamente el miércoles: “si llega a haber aranceles, México también subiría aranceles”, dejando clara su postura sobre la posible respuesta de México.Altos funcionarios de su gobierno y figuras destacadas del partido gobernante de México, Morena, también expresaron su apoyo a los aranceles de represalia. El secretario de Economía de México, Marcelo Ebrard, dijo que se podrían perder alrededor de 400.000 empleos en Estados Unidos si Donald Trump impone los aranceles, calificando la medida como un “tiro en el pie”, al participar junto a Sheinbaum en una conferencia de prensa matutina.La presidenta de México no se refirió a los aranceles, ni a las tensiones comerciales en general, en su mensaje sobre su conversación con Trump. En cambio, dijo que ella y Trump también “hablamos de reforzar la colaboración en temas de seguridad en el marco de nuestra soberanía y de la campaña que estamos realizando en el país para prevenir el consumo de fentanilo”. More

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      PCE, a Key Inflation Measure, Sped Up in October

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      Inflation has been stubborn in recent months. Now, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s tariffs loom as a potential risk.The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure sped up in October, a development that is likely to keep central bankers wary as they contemplate the path ahead for interest rates.The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier, quicker than 2.1 percent in September.After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs to get a better sense of the underlying trend in prices, a “core” index climbed 2.8 percent from a year earlier. That was up from 2.7 percent previously.Looking at how much prices climbed over just the past month, the overall index rose 0.2 percent from September, and the core index increased 0.3 percent. Both changes were in line with their previous readings and with economist expectations. Policymakers sometimes look at monthly price changes to get an up-to-date sense of how inflation is evolving.The upshot from the report is that inflation is proving sticky after months of steady progress. Price increases remain much cooler than they were at their peak in 2022, which topped out at about 7 percent for the overall index. But they remain slightly faster than the 2 percent pace that the Fed targets.That is preventing officials from declaring victory over inflation, although policymakers still expect price increases to continue to cool toward their goal.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Selects Jamieson Greer as Trade Representative

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      President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday picked Jamieson Greer, a lawyer and former Trump official, to serve as his top trade negotiator. The position will be crucial to Mr. Trump’s plans of issuing hefty tariffs on foreign products and rewriting the rules of trade in America’s favor.Mr. Greer is a partner in international trade at the law firm King & Spalding. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Greer served as chief of staff to Robert E. Lighthizer, the trade representative at the time. He was involved in the Trump administration’s trade negotiations with China, as well as the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.Before that, Mr. Greer served in the Air Force, where he was a lawyer who prosecuted and defended U.S. airmen in criminal investigations. He was deployed to Iraq.“Jamieson will focus the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on reining in the Country’s massive Trade Deficit, defending American Manufacturing, Agriculture, and Services, and opening up Export Markets everywhere,” Mr. Trump said.The position of trade representative has historically been fairly low profile, but it has taken on greater importance under Mr. Trump. In his first term, the office helped wage a trade war against China, imposed substantial tariffs on its products and negotiated a series of trade deals.In his next term, Mr. Trump has promised to again make aggressive use of the government’s authority over trade. On Monday, he said he would impose tariffs on all products coming into the United States from Canada, Mexico and China on his first day in office.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More