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      Trump’s Tariffs Could Deal a Blow to Boeing and the Aerospace Industry

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      Aerospace companies are big exporters but also very reliant on a global supply chain, making them vulnerable.Boeing is the kind of manufacturer — one that exports billions of dollars of goods — that President Trump says he wants to protect and nurture.But his tariffs could have the opposite effect on the company’s suppliers.Mr. Trump has imposed a few tariffs so far, but he says more are coming in just a few weeks. That threat has unnerved the aerospace industry, of which Boeing is one of the largest companies. Duties on aluminum and steel, two of the most important raw materials used in aircraft, are expected to raise manufacturing costs. But the industry is far more concerned by tariffs that take effect on goods from Canada and Mexico next month, which could disrupt the highly integrated North American supply chain.“These tariffs are particularly fraught for an industry like aerospace that has been duty-free for decades,” said Bruce Hirsch, a trade policy expert at Capitol Counsel, a lobbying firm in Washington, which has aerospace clients. “Parts are coming from everywhere.”Aerospace experts say the industry is an example of U.S. manufacturing prowess. It offers well-paying jobs and has produced one of the largest trade surpluses of any industry for years. Aerospace is expected to export about $125 billion this year, according to IBISWorld, second only to oil and gas.But the industry is operating under a cloud of uncertainty. Many companies have been able to avoid costly cross-border tariffs under a short-term reprieve for products covered by a North American trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated in his first term. But that deal expires in April.In a letter to administration officials last week, groups representing airlines, plane repair stations, suppliers and manufacturers asked for an exception to the tariffs, arguing that it was needed to keep the industry competitive on the global market.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump’s Trade War Will Slow Global Economic Growth, OECD Says

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      The growing trade war and rapid policy shifts are expected to drag down economic growth in the United States and around the world, according to projections released on Monday.The resilience that was evident last year is slipping, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest interim economic report, which estimated that global growth would dip to 3.1 percent in 2025 and to 3 percent in 2026, from 3.2 percent last year. The United States is likely to see a sharper drop, falling to 2.2 percent this year and to 1.6 percent next year, from the 2.8 percent growth in 2024.“Some signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty,” said Mathias Cormann, the organization’s secretary-general. “Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs both for production and consumption.”President Trump has imposed tariffs — including a sweeping 25 percent penalty on foreign steel and aluminum — on once-close allies like Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Britain, as well as on longtime rivals like China. Most have already issued countermeasures or have threatened to. Mr. Trump has vowed to impose another round of tariffs next month.One result of the tariffs is that inflation looks to be rising faster than previously thought, the O.E.C.D. said, explaining why it revised its previous estimate, published in December. Both business and consumer confidence have also ebbed.The outlook for the 20 countries that use the euro is limp. This year, growth is expected to increase 1 percent; next year, it should rise to 1.2 percent. The grimmest forecast is for Mexico, where growth is expected to decline to negative 1.3 percent this year and negative 0.6 percent in 2026.India, by contrast, is on track to record the strongest growth, according to the O.E.C.D. report, which estimates that gross domestic product, which rose last year to 6.3 percent, will increase to 6.4 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026. China’s economy, too, looks to be in better health, with 4.8 percent growth expected in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026. If trade restrictions escalate, inflation could rise and economic growth could decline even more than anticipated, the organization warned.The one potential bright spot is artificial intelligence, said Álvaro Santos Pereira, the group’s chief economist. A.I. is expected “to significantly boost labor productivity growth over the next decade,” he said, with even greater gains if combined with advances in robotics. More

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      Trump Tariffs Leave No Country Room for Exemptions, U.S. Tells Canada

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      In talks aimed at finding common ground on tariffs, Canadian officials were told April 2 will be a crucial day in setting the Trump tariff doctrine, and any relief could come later.Top U.S. representatives told a Canadian delegation on Thursday that there was no way Canada, or any other country in President Trump’s cross hairs, could avoid a new round of sweeping tariffs on April 2, according to two people with direct knowledge of their conversation.Any negotiations to remove some tariffs or even strike a more comprehensive trade deal would come after that date, American officials told their Canadian counterparts at a meeting in Washington, D.C. Mr. Trump, through an executive order, has ordered an in-depth examination of trade between the United States and several partners, including Canada, and the imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs beginning on April 2, to match surcharges other countries impose on U.S. goods.The United States was represented in the meeting by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Canada was represented by Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman.The Canadian officials left the meeting, which lasted more than an hour, with a clearer — but not necessarily more optimistic — sense of what lies ahead, according to two of them with direct knowledge of what transpired, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press about it.While the Trump officials made clear their pledge on reciprocal tariffs, Mr. Trump has shown a repeated penchant for vowing to press ahead with tariffs only to decide at the last minute to back down or grant a reprieve.The meeting was a an effort to inject a calmer approach to the relationship between the two countries, even as Mr. Trump on Thursday continued to level threats against Canada’s sovereignty.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump apuesta a que EE. UU. tolerará una recesión a fin de revivir la industria manufacturera

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      El presidente ofrece razones para imponer aranceles, como los ingresos, la influencia sobre los competidores y la creación de empleo. Pero el pasado sugiere una historia más compleja.Las guerras comerciales simultáneas del presidente Donald Trump con Canadá, México, China y la Unión Europea equivalen a una enorme apuesta económica y política: que los estadounidenses soporten meses o años de penuria económica a cambio de la lejana esperanza de reindustrializar el corazón de Estados Unidos.Es enormemente arriesgado. En los últimos días, Trump ha reconocido, a pesar de todas sus seguras predicciones de campaña de que “vamos a tener un auge como nunca antes hemos tenido”, que Estados Unidos puede dirigirse hacia una recesión, impulsada por su programa económico. Pero, en público y en privado, ha estado argumentando que “una ligera perturbación” en la economía y los mercados es un pequeño precio a pagar por traer de vuelta a Estados Unidos los puestos de trabajo en la industria manufacturera.Sus socios políticos más cercanos están redoblando la estrategia. “La política económica del presidente Trump es sencilla”, escribió el vicepresidente JD Vance en las redes sociales el lunes. “Si inviertes y creas empleo en Estados Unidos, serás recompensado. Reduciremos las normativas y los impuestos. Pero si construyes fuera de Estados Unidos, estarás solo”.La última vez que Trump intentó algo así, durante su primer mandato, fue un fracaso. En 2018 impuso aranceles del 25 por ciento al acero y del 10 por ciento al aluminio, sosteniendo que estaba protegiendo la seguridad nacional de Estados Unidos y que, en última instancia, los aranceles crearían más puestos de trabajo en Estados Unidos. Los precios subieron y se produjo un aumento temporal de unos 5000 puestos de trabajo en todo el país. Durante la pandemia, se levantaron algunos de los aranceles, y hoy la industria emplea aproximadamente al mismo número de estadounidenses que entonces.Sin embargo, lo más preocupante fue la serie de estudios posteriores que demostraron que el país perdió decenas de miles de puestos de trabajo —más de 75.000, según un estudio— en las industrias que dependían de las importaciones de acero y aluminio. La producción por hora de los fabricantes de acero estadounidenses también había descendido, mientras que la productividad de la industria manufacturera en general en Estados Unidos aumentó.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Irish Leader to Visit Trump as Ties Between U.S. and Europe Are Tested

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      President Trump will host Micheál Martin, the taoiseach or prime minister of Ireland, at the White House on Wednesday, for a traditional annual visit ahead of St. Patrick’s Day amid deepening tensions with Europe over tariffs and the war in Ukraine.The annual visit is seen as important to reinforce the longstanding diplomatic relationship between the two countries. But this one comes at a time when those ties are being tested — with European leaders announcing plans on Wednesday to hit back against American tariffs, tensions over the Trump administration’s approach to the war in Ukraine, and contentious statements the president has made about the United States developing and governing Gaza.And as recent visits with world leaders have shown, a stop by the White House, even a traditional one, now comes with the heightened risk of the unexpected playing out in front of cameras. There had been questions from the Irish public about whether Mr. Martin should attend at all after the disastrous meeting between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine earlier this month.Mr. Martin, an experienced statesman, had a breakfast meeting with Vice President JD Vance at his official residence, where the two smiled for photographers, both wearing green ties in a nod to the occasion.Speaking during the breakfast, Mr. Martin first thanked the president and vice president for continuing the annual tradition, before reflecting on the longstanding relationship between the two countries.“The United States has been a steadfast friend of Ireland’s for centuries,” he said, adding, “First and foremost, our kinship was built upon the ties between our people, especially the generations of Irish who made their homes here.”Mr. Martin is expected to be greeted by Mr. Trump before the leaders head to the Oval Office, and then the two will hold a closed-door bilateral meeting.According to Mr. Martin’s office, discussions were expected to cover a broad range of issues from trade to the war in Ukraine to the situation in the Middle East, as well as the Northern Ireland peace process, of which the United States has long been a crucial partner.On Wednesday evening, at around 5 p.m., the White House will hold a St. Patrick’s Day reception to mark the holiday commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, which is officially on Monday. Mr. Trump will be gifted a bowl of shamrocks, as is tradition.Ireland has a large trade surplus with the U.S. in goods — driven in large part by the export of pharmaceutical goods manufactured in Ireland by U.S. companies, as well as agricultural products like dairy — but it has a large trade deficit with the country when it comes to services. More

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      Asian Markets Slide as Global Sell-Off Continues

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      Fears over the future health of the global economy are continuing to rattle markets around the world, as investors grapple with the reality of tariffs and fresh signs that consumers are pulling back on spending.After the S&P 500 suffered its worst day of the year on Monday, the sell-off continued into Asia trading on Tuesday.Asian markets opened mostly lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index falling about 2 percent, weighed down by big declines in Japanese technology stocks. Stock markets in South Korea and Taiwan also fell around 2 percent in early trading.Equity markets in China were faring slightly better. Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen ticked lower, down around 0.2 percent in morning trading. Hong Kong was down less than 1 percent.Investors have become increasingly cautious about the U.S. stock market in recent weeks as President Trump has flip-flopped on tariffs, causing confusion and uncertainty.Growing unease about the inflationary effects of the tariffs, coupled with a broadly darkening mood about the economy, provided the catalyst for a sell-off in a market that investors have long worried was overvalued.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Shifts From Lifting Up America’s Neighbors to Hurting Them

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      When the United States signed a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico more than 30 years ago, the premise was that partnering with two other thriving economies would also benefit America.This week, President Trump abruptly scrapped that idea. He imposed a sweeping 25 percent tariff on the roughly $1 trillion of imports that Mexico and Canada send into the United States each year as part of that North American trade pact. Those tariffs are expected to significantly raise costs for Canadian and Mexican exports, undermining their economies and likely tipping them into recession.Mr. Trump’s decision to unwind decades of economic integration raises big questions about the future of North America and the industries that have been built around the idea of an economically integrated continent. While some factories in Canada and Mexico might move to the United States to avoid tariffs, the levies will also raise costs for American consumers and manufacturers that have come to depend on materials from their North American neighbors.“This is a day where the United States stopped seeing trade as force for mutual benefit, and began seeing it as a tool of economic warfare,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that the levies were “a fundamental attack on the economic well being of our closest neighbors.”Mr. Trump suggested on Wednesday that this arrangement could be long-lived, as he gave automakers who were abiding by the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A., only a one month reprieve to prepare for the tariffs. Trump officials said that the president expected to issue more tariffs on Canada and Mexico next month, when he announces what he is calling “reciprocal” tariff measures.Howard Lutnick at Mr. Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Macy’s Signals a Rocky Year Ahead as Trade War Looms

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      The largest department store chain in the U.S., like other retailers recently, warned that consumers may be more cautious with their money in the months ahead.Macy’s, the largest department store in the United States, saw slightly improved sales across all of its stores during the holiday season, but like other retailers it warned of a potentially rocky year ahead. Macy’s said comparable sales at stores that it owns were down 1.1 percent in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Feb. 1. Across all of Macy’s nameplates, which include Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury, as well as its licensed business and online marketplace, sales rose 0.2 percent, the best result in many quarters.Macy’s entered the holiday season facing tough challenges, including more cost-conscious consumers, weakening profitability and a bizarre accounting error. It is in the midst of a turnaround plan that includes closing underperforming locations and improving its remaining stores with more staffing and better merchandise. It has closed about 66 of 150 planned stores so far. While Macy’s sees signs of optimism, the forecast it offered Wall Street showed that it expects to bring in less revenue than it did last fiscal year, in part because of the store closures. The retailer said it expects net sales to be $21 to $21.4 billion, down from the $22.3 billion this past year. It expects comparable sales to fall as much as 2 percent.David Swartz, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, cautioned that investors and analysts like himself “need to see more” in order to be convinced that the department store’s strategy to reverse its fortunes is really working.“When you own hundreds of stores, some of them are going to be really good and some of them in the middle and some of them are terrible,” he said, adding that “the fact that the better stores are performing fairly well does not really tell you that much about the health of the whole company, unfortunately.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More