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      I.M.F. Says Inflation Fight Is Largely Over but Warns of New Threats

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      The International Monetary Fund said protectionism and new trade wars could weigh on growth.The global economy has managed to avoid falling into a recession even though the world’s central banks have raised interest rates to their highest levels in years to try to tame rapid inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.But the I.M.F., in a new report, also cautioned that escalating violence in the Middle East and the prospect of a new round of trade wars stemming from political developments in the United States remain significant threats.New economic forecasts released by the fund on Tuesday showed that the global fight against soaring prices has largely been won: Global output is expected to hold steady at 3.2 percent this year and next. Fears of a widespread post-pandemic contraction have been averted, but the fund warned that many countries still face a challenging mix of high debt and sluggish growth.The report was released as finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world convened in Washington for the annual meetings of the I.M.F. and the World Bank. The gathering is taking place two weeks ahead of a presidential election in the United States that could result in a major shift toward protectionism and tariffs if former President Donald J. Trump is elected.Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs of as much as 50 percent, most likely setting off retaliation and trade wars. Economists think that could fuel price increases and slow growth, possibly leading to a recession.“Fear of a Trump presidency will loudly reverberate behind the scenes,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Mr. Sobel said global policymakers would probably be wondering what another Trump presidency would “mean for the future of multilateralism, international cooperation, U.S.-China stresses and their worldwide ripples, and global trade and finance, among others.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      China’s Lackluster Growth Continues, Signaling Why Beijing Acted on Economy

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      Falling prices, weak consumer spending and a housing market crash help to explain why the Chinese government is taking steps to stimulate the economy.The Chinese economy continued to grow at a lackluster pace over the summer, according to data released on Friday, underscoring the urgency of the government’s recent attempts to bolster the economy.Construction has slowed because of a housing market meltdown. Millions of young college graduates have been unable to find work. Many local governments have run out of money to build roads or even pay the salaries of teachers and other workers.Looming over it all are falling prices across the Chinese economy, from apartments to cars to restaurant meals. Broadly falling prices, a phenomenon called deflation, make it hard for companies and families to earn enough to pay their mortgages and other debts.China’s economy grew 0.9 percent in July through September over the previous three months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said. When projected out for the entire year, the economy grew at an annual rate of about 3.6 percent in the third quarter.The growth in part reflected an official revision on Friday to show that the second quarter was even weaker than previously acknowledged. Growth then was at an annual pace of 2 percent, and not the previously reported pace of 2.8 percent.Beijing has announced a series of measures since Sept. 24 to address the lingering troubles that became clear in the numbers released on Friday. The central bank has cut interest rates and minimum down payments for mortgages. The finance ministry promised the sale of more bonds to raise money for local governments to pay municipal salaries and buy vacant apartments for conversion into affordable housing.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Louis Vuitton Owner LVMH Sees Stock Drop on Weak China Sales

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      Weak sales in China at LVMH, the owner of Dior, Tiffany and more, sent a shudder through the luxury sector.Shares in LVMH dropped on Wednesday after the luxury goods giant warned about an “uncertain economic and geopolitical environment” and its latest earnings disappointed analysts.The conglomerate — which owns Dior, Tiffany, Fendi and more — is a bellwether for the industry. Its financial results, released on Tuesday after European markets closed, has sent a shudder through the luxury sector, particularly in response to slowing sales in the hugely important Chinese market.LVMH, which is run by the French billionaire Bernard Arnault, said that sales for last quarter fell 3 percent from the same period the previous year. The company also reported a decline in sales in its fashion and leather goods unit, which makes up about half of the conglomerate’s revenue, for the first time since early in the coronavirus pandemic.Shares of other fashion and lifestyle brands also declined, including Hermès and Kering, the owner of Gucci.Investors are jittery about the Chinese economy. Beijing introduced a package of measures last month that spurred a major rally in Chinese stocks, but details remain vague about the extent of the measures to bolster weak consumer spending, stabilize the real estate market and strengthen banks.China recently announced retaliatory penalties on European brandy — LVMH owns Moët Hennessy — in response to higher tariffs imposed by the European Union on Chinese-made electric vehicles.“Consumer confidence in mainland China today is back in line with the all-time low reached during Covid,” Jean-Jacques Guiony, LVMH’s chief financial officer, told analysts on Tuesday.Some industry observers are betting that LVMH will cope. “We are not sure this quarter particularly changes the LVMH story,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note. Even without a lot of detail, the stimulus signals in China are encouraging and demand will return, the analysts said.China’s housing minister is set to hold a news conference on Thursday and is expected to outline more measures to bolster growth.Danielle Kaye More

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      Fears of a Global Oil Shock if the Mideast Crisis Intensifies

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      The threat of an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has created an “extraordinarily precarious” global situation, sowing alarm about the potential economic fallout.As the world absorbs the prospect of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the potential economic fallout is sowing increasing alarm. The worst fears center on a broadly debilitating development: a shock to the global oil supply.Such a result, actively contemplated in world capitals, could yield surging prices for gasoline, fuel and other products made with petroleum like plastics, chemicals and fertilizer. It could discourage investment, hiring, and business expansion, threatening many economies — particularly in Europe — with the risk of recession. The effects would be potent in nations that depend on imported oil, especially poor countries in Africa.The possibility of this calamitous outcome has come into focus in recent days as Israel plots its response to the barrage of missiles that Iran unleashed last week. Some scenarios are seen as highly unlikely, yet still conceivable: An Israeli strike on Iranian oil installations might prompt Iran to target refineries in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, both major oil producers. Iranian-supported Houthi rebels claimed credit for an attack on Saudi oil installations in 2019. The Trump administration subsequently pinned the blame on Iranian forces.As it has done before, Iran might also threaten the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway that is the conduit for oil produced in the Persian Gulf, the source of nearly one-third of the world’s oil production. Such a move could entail conflict with American naval ships stationed in the region.That, too, is currently considered to be improbable. But the upheaval in the region in recent months has pushed out the parameters of possibility, rendering imaginable scenarios that were once dismissed as extreme.As Israel plots its next move, it has other targets besides Iranian oil installations. Iran would have reason for caution in crafting its own retaliation. Broadening the war to its Persian Gulf neighbors would invite a punishing response that could push Iran’s own economy — already bleak — to the brink of collapse.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Germany Accuses Woman of Spying for China on Arms Exports

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      The woman, who worked at an airport that is one of Europe’s largest cargo hubs, is accused of passing along “flights, freight and passengers” related to arms exports.A 38-year-old Chinese woman living in Germany has been arrested on accusations of supplying China’s intelligence services with sensitive information on Germany’s weapons exports. It is the latest spying-related arrest amid increasing worry in Germany about intelligence gathering by China and Russia.Germany’s federal prosecutor said in a statement on Tuesday that the woman, identified only as Yaqi X. in keeping with strict privacy rules, worked at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany. She is accused of passing along information about “flights, freight and passengers” related to arms exports, as well as information on employees of a German weapons manufacturer, the statement said.The airport, roughly 90 miles southwest of Berlin, is one of Europe’s largest cargo hubs, handling over 1.5 million tons of freight each year. The authorities said that Ms. X. worked for a logistics company that operates out of the airport.The authorities said she also had close links to a Chinese man, identified as Jian G., who was arrested in Germany in April and accused of being a spy in Germany and Brussels.The police arrested Ms. X. on Monday and searched her apartment in Leipzig and her workplace at the airport.Berlin has become concerned with the number of active spies in Germany since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as well as intelligence gathering by China, Germany’s largest trade partner.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Exploding Pagers Deliver a Supply Chain Warning

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      The attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon are likely to generate greater momentum for moving factory production closer to home.The lethal detonation of hand-held pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah militants this week in Lebanon demonstrated powerful spycraft, but it also raised questions about a gaping vulnerability in the global supply chain.That chain is astonishingly complex. So complex that it is probably beyond the powers of governments, corporations and other interested institutions to police. Even the most sophisticated participants are often unclear on who they are relying on for critical parts and raw materials, or where the risks lie.The clear lesson of the supply chain upheavals that accompanied the pandemic was that the longer the journey entailed in making any product, the greater the chance that something might go awry, inflicting delay and higher costs.Now there’s a potent yet related concern: The more complicated the journey, the greater the exposure to mischief.Every movement along the way, and every additional company brought into the manufacturing process represents an opportunity for those pursuing violent agendas to insinuate themselves into the works and weaponize the product.“Companies must decide which level of security must be implemented in their supply chains,” Hannah Kain, the chief executive of ALOM, a global supply chain company, told DealBook. “We just moved several notches out on the paranoia scale.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Backlash Erupts Over Europe’s Anti-Deforestation Law

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      Leaders around the world are asking the European Union to delay rules that would require companies to police their global supply chains.The European Union has been a world leader on climate change, passing groundbreaking legislation to reduce noxious greenhouse gasses. Now the world is pushing back.Government officials and business groups around the globe have jacked up their lobbying in recent months to persuade E.U. officials to suspend a landmark environmental law aimed at protecting the planet’s endangered forests by tracing supply chains.The rules, scheduled to take effect at the end of the year, would affect billions of dollars in traded goods. They have been denounced as “discriminatory and punitive” by countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.In the United States, the Biden administration petitioned for a delay as American paper companies warned that the law could result in shortages of diapers and sanitary pads in Europe. In July, China said it would not comply because “security concerns” prevent the country from sharing the necessary data.Last week, the chorus got larger. Cabinet members in Brazil, the director general of the World Trade Organization and even Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany — leader of the largest economy in the 27-member European Union — asked the European Commission’s president to postpone the impending deforestation regulations.The uproar underscores the bruising difficulties of making progress on a problem that most everyone agrees is urgent: protecting the world’s population from devastating climate change.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Ukraine Says Russian Missile Hit Grain Ship in Black Sea

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      If confirmed, the attack would be the first on a commercial vessel since Ukraine secured a shipping route to grain markets abroad last year.President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on Thursday that a Russian missile struck a cargo ship in the Black Sea that was carrying wheat to Egypt, and a Ukrainian military spokesman said that the attack took place in Romanian waters.If confirmed, it would be the first such direct attack on a civilian vessel in open water since Ukraine established a new maritime export route last year.Mr. Zelensky said on social media that there were no casualties in the attack, which he said had happened overnight. He did not describe the extent of any damage.There was no immediate independent confirmation of the claim; and Russia’s defense ministry did not mention it on its Telegram channel.Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk, the spokesman for Ukraine’s southern command said in a telephone interview that the ship had been hit by a missile from a Russian military jet while it was in “the exclusive economic zone waters of Romania. It was not in the grain corridor of Ukraine.” He said the ship was sailing under the flag of a third country, but did not say which.An attack in the exclusive economic zone waters of Romania, a NATO member, would not be equivalent to an attack on sovereign territory under international law. Rather, the zone is an area where a government can control economic activity, such as oil drilling.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More