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      Oil Companies Wanted Trump to Lower Costs. Tariffs Are Raising Them.

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      President Trump’s promise during last year’s election to make it far easier to drill for oil and gas thrilled energy executives who believed his policies would lower their costs and help them make a lot more money.Those hopes are now fading. Thanks to Mr. Trump’s tariffs, the oil and gas industry is contending with rising prices for essential materials like steel pipes used to line new wells.That has not yet translated into a meaningful change in U.S. drilling activity or production expectations, but companies have begun revising budgets to reflect higher materials costs. Decisions made today about which wells to drill will affect production many months from now.Oil refineries are separately bracing for a tariff on Canadian oil, which some of them need to produce gasoline, diesel and other fuels.At the same time, consumers have grown jittery about the economy and the price of oil has fallen about 10 percent since just before Mr. Trump took office, to around $70 a barrel. Oil companies tend to drill less when prices fall.The combination could complicate Mr. Trump’s stated desire to juice U.S. oil and natural gas production, which are already at or near record highs.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Inflation Is Rising. What Will That Mean for Trump’s Tariffs?

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      Consumer sentiment has turned south as high prices weigh on households. Could that crimp big pieces of the president’s economic agenda, including tariffs?Stubbornly high inflation is beginning to weigh on households, with sentiment souring fast, economists note.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesRising prices hit a trade war President Trump isn’t backing off his tariff threats, despite the potential risk to the U.S. economy and financial markets.That puts additional focus on the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s favored inflation measure. It’s due for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.The question is whether lingering inflation also will have big implications for the Trump agenda, with some economists predicting that tariffs will raise inflation and lower growth, even if the target countries don’t retaliate. Friday’s report is expected to show only slight relief for consumers.Economists worry about a hot P.C.E. reading, which could push the central bank to keep borrowing costs higher well into the second half of the year, even as consumer confidence and the mood in the C-suites increasingly turn south and the economy shows signs of slowing.A recession is seen as unlikely, but there are other concerns. Recent data shows a growing affordability crunch with egg prices spiking (more on that below), home sales plummeting and jobless claims climbing. Watch next week’s jobs report for more, including which parts of the country could be hardest hit by Elon Musk-led cuts to the federal government. (Alaska is among them.)“With 3 million federal employees potentially worrying about their jobs and 6 million federal contractors worrying about their jobs, the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.,” Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, wrote in a research note on Thursday. Sentiment, he added, is “bad.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Says Canada and Mexico Tariffs Will Go Into Effect Next Week

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      Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would go into effect on March 4 “as scheduled,” President Trump said on Thursday morning, claiming that those countries were still not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs into the United States.China will also face an additional 10 percent tariff next week, on top of the 10 percent he imposed earlier this month, the president wrote in a post on Truth Social.“Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” he said. “A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China.” He added that the levies were necessary until the flow of drugs “stops, or is seriously limited.”In an effort to stem the flow of migrants and drugs, Mr. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all products from Canada, Mexico and China in early February. But after Mexico and Canada promised measures like sending more troops to the border and, in the case of Canada, appointing a “fentanyl czar,” Mr. Trump paused their tariffs for one month.He moved ahead with imposing a 10 percent tariff on all products from China, on top of those already in place, which prompted China to retaliate with its own tariffs on American goods.The post Thursday appeared to be an attempt by Mr. Trump to clarify his plans, after his remarks at the White House on Wednesday sowed confusion about whether the tariffs had been delayed.When asked about tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that they would proceed — but mentioned April 2, which is when he has said another batch of tariffs on various countries, which he has called reciprocal tariffs, would go into effect.Some investors interpreted those remarks as a sign the president meant to continue delaying the tariffs related to drugs and migrants, and the value of the peso and the Canadian dollar increased. But a White House official on Wednesday clarified that the April 2 date referred to other tariffs, not those on Canada and Mexico.“The April Second Reciprocal Tariff date will remain in full force and effect,” Mr. Trump wrote Thursday. More

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      Can the Federal Reserve Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?

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      Top officials are grappling with how to handle potential price increases caused by the administration’s policies.As President Trump’s efforts to restructure the global trade system with expansive tariffs begin to take shape, one question continues to dog officials at the Federal Reserve: How will these policies impact the central bank’s plans to lower interest rates?One influential Fed governor made clear on Monday that he did not expect Mr. Trump’s policies to derail the Fed’s efforts to get inflation under control, suggesting instead that fresh interest rate cuts are still in play this year.“My baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a nonpersistent manner,” Christopher J. Waller, the official, said in remarks at an event in Australia Monday evening. “So I favor looking through these effects when setting monetary policy to the best of our ability.”Economists are concerned that tariffs, which are essentially taxes on American consumers, will increase prices in the United States, at least temporarily, and over time slow economic growth.Mr. Waller acknowledged that the economic impact of the tariffs could be larger than anticipated depending on how they are structured and later put in place. But he suggested that any uptick in prices from tariffs could be blunted by other policies, which could have “positive supply effects and put downward pressure on inflation.”Mr. Waller’s views matter given that he is one of the seven officials who make up the Board of Governors and votes at every policy meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Japan’s Economy Recovered In Second Half But Barely Grew in 2024

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      Though it recovered in the second half of the year, Japan’s economy barely grew in 2024 as a depreciated yen fueled inflation and strained households.For decades in Japan, it was accepted as gospel: A weak currency makes companies more competitive and bolsters the economy.Part of that promise came true last year: As the yen tumbled to a 37-year low against the dollar, big brands like Toyota Motor reported the highest profits in Japanese history. Stocks soared to record highs.Yet for the majority of Japanese households, the weakened yen has done little more than drive up the costs of basic living expenses, such as food and electricity. Figures released Monday showed that while Japan’s economy picked up pace in the second half of 2024, its inflation-adjusted growth rate for the full year slowed to 0.1 percent. That was down from 1.5 percent the prior year.Attempting to stimulate exports by weakening a currency has long been a policy tool for countries seeking economic growth: President Trump has said he wants a weaker dollar to help American manufacturing. Japan provides an example of what can happen when a depreciated currency, even if it helps exports, crushes consumer purchasing power by worsening inflation.“In economics, they teach us that everything has a benefit and a cost, and it’s about asking which is greater,” said Richard Katz, an economist who focuses on Japan. Of the yen trading at around 153 to the dollar, “this is clearly not the way to run a railroad,” Mr. Katz said. “It would be good to take a lesson from this.”The figures released on Monday show that household spending shrank slightly in 2024, after expanding in the previous three years. Unlike in the United States, where strong consumption helped the economy surge back after the Covid-19 pandemic, prolonged weak spending in Japan has left its real gross domestic product barely above prepandemic levels.

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      Japan consumer confidence index
      Source: Cabinet Office of JapanBy The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      With Trump’s Help, Intel Could Hand Control of Chip Plants to TSMC

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      The Silicon Valley giant is trying to cut a deal it hopes would help it pull out of a yearslong slump.Intel, a fallen Silicon Valley icon trying to restore its reputation as America’s most prominent semiconductor company, is working with the Trump administration on a plan to turn over the operation of its chip-making plants to a giant Taiwanese rival.Over the past few months, Frank Yeary, the interim executive chairman of Intel, has spoken with administration officials and leaders of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company about a deal that would separate Intel’s ailing manufacturing business from its semiconductor design and product business, according to four people with knowledge of the plan, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.TSMC, which produces an estimated 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, would assume control of Intel’s manufacturing business and take a majority stake in the business alongside a consortium of investors that could include private equity firms and other tech companies, the four people said.The Trump administration has encouraged TSMC to do the deal. Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, has been involved in the conversations and considers them one of the most consequential challenges of his new job, two of the people familiar with the discussions said.Intel is the only American-owned maker of advanced logic chips and has been at the forefront of U.S. efforts to rev up domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, which are a foundational technology. But Intel has struggled to compete against TSMC. Most of that company’s production is done in Taiwan, which is a strategic risk for the United States because of growing threats from the government of mainland China.Howard Lutnick has been involved in the talks as President Trump’s pick to lead the Commerce Department.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump and Modi Shove Disputes Into Background in White House Visit

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      Hours after President Trump paved the way for upending the United States’ trade relationship with India with broad “reciprocal” tariffs, he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi presented a united front during a news conference on Thursday at the White House.Mr. Modi became the latest head of state to seek to placate an increasingly power-flexing Mr. Trump by trying to accommodate his demands — even as Mr. Trump’s promised tariffs hung over the White House meeting. Mr. Modi heaped praise on Mr. Trump, using his motto “Make America Great Again” in English, despite mostly speaking through a translator, and applying the motto to India. “Make India Great Again,” Mr. Modi crowed.The warm greetings also extended to Elon Musk, the constant Trump companion barreling through the federal government as the head of an initiative to reshape and cut down the federal government: The two had a meeting and photo op. Mr. Musk, the wealthiest man in the world, owns a number of companies, including Starlink, a high-speed internet service, that have sought to make an entry in India.All the flattery concealed a number of tensions between the two nations, including on two of Mr. Trump’s signature issues, trade and immigration. Mr. Trump hinted at the biggest thorn when he said at the news conference that the United States had a nearly $100 billion trade deficit with India, though he inflated the number — in 2024, the figure was nearly $50 billion.Just hours earlier, Mr. Trump had directed his advisers to devise new tariff levels for countries around the world that take into account a range of trade barriers and other economic approaches adopted by America’s trading partners. India is among the nations that could face particularly significant consequences from the tariffs.At the news conference, Mr. Trump said that he had toyed with that idea during his first term, and noted that he could not get India to lower tariffs against the United States then. Now, “we’re just going to say, ‘whatever you charge, we charge,’” Mr. Trump said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Vance, in First Foreign Speech, Tells Europe That U.S. Will Dominate A.I.

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      Speaking in Paris at an artificial intelligence summit, the vice president gave an America First vision of the technology — with the U.S. dominating the chips, the software and the rules.Vice President JD Vance told European and Asian leaders in Paris on Tuesday that the Trump Administration was adopting an aggressive, America First approach to the race to dominate all the building blocks of artificial intelligence, and warned Europeans to dismantle regulations and get aboard with Washington.On his first foreign trip since taking office, Mr. Vance used his opening address at an A.I. summit meeting hosted by France and India to describe his vision of a coming era of American technological domination. Europe, he said, would be forced to chose between using American-designed and manufactured technology or siding with authoritarian competitors — a not-very-veiled reference to China — who would exploit the technology to their detriment.“The Trump administration will ensure that the most powerful A.I. systems are built in the U.S. with American design and manufactured chips,” he said, quickly adding that “just because we are the leader doesn’t mean we want to or need to go it alone.”But he said that for Europe to become what he clearly envisions as a junior partner, it must eliminate much of its digital regulatory structure — and much of its policing of the internet for what its governments define as disinformation.For Mr. Vance, who is on a weeklong tour that will take him next to the Munich Security Conference, Europe’s premier meeting of leaders, foreign and defense ministers and others, the speech was clearly intended as a warning shot. It largely silenced the hall in a wing of the Grand Palais in the center of Paris. Leaders accustomed to talking about “guardrails” for emerging artificial intelligence applications and “equity” to assure the technology is available and comfortable for underserved populations heard none of those phrases from Mr. Vance.He spoke only hours after President Trump put new 25 percent tariffs on foreign steel, essentially negating trade agreements with Europe and other regions. Mr. Vance’s speech, precisely composed and delivered with emphasis, seemed an indicator of the tone Mr. Trump’s national security leaders plan to take to Europe this week.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More