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      Oil Prices Surge and Stock Markets Stumble After Israel Strikes Iran

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      The military strikes jolted investors, raising concerns that a broader Mideast conflict would disrupt the world’s energy supplies.Israel’s military strikes against Iran shook global markets, as oil prices surged and stocks tumbled on worries that the attacks could set off a broader Mideast conflict that would disrupt the world’s energy supplies.Prices of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, jumped nearly 9 percent to almost $78 a barrel in the hour following the Israeli strikes. As investors worried that rising oil prices might lead to more inflation and hurt the economies of oil-importing nations, stock markets fell broadly.The Nikkei 225 Index in Japan fell 1.3 percent in early trading Friday, while the Hang Seng Index dipped 0.7 percent in Hong Kong. Wall Street was closed at the time of the attack, but overnight futures market trading indicated that they could also fall as much as the Tokyo market.Iran is among the world’s largest producers of oil, and it sells almost all of what it produces to China, which consumes 15 percent of the global supply. Sales by Iran’s state oil company to China represent about 6 percent of Iran’s entire economy, and are equal to about half of its entire government’s spending.Iran’s exports have lagged in recent years as international sanctions have limited its ability to modernize its oil extraction and transportation technology.But Iran’s shipments have begun to recover in the past year on strong demand from China, which would be forced buy oil elsewhere if a broader conflict were to interrupt Iranian supplies. Beijing does have a large strategic oil reserve, accumulated through more than a decade of purchases and dispersed among numerous sites across the country. That could allow it to withstand weeks of an interruption in imports without difficulty.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump is Pushing Allies Away and Closer Into Each Other’s Arms

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      Important U.S. allies are trying to bolster their ties as the Trump administration shifts priorities and reshapes the world order.New trade deals. Joint sanctions against Israel. Military agreements.America’s closest allies are increasingly turning to each other to advance their interests, deepening their ties as the Trump administration challenges them with tariffs and other measures that are upending trade, diplomacy and defense.Concerned by shifting U.S. priorities under President Trump, some of America’s traditional partners on the world stage have spent the turbulent months since Mr. Trump’s January inauguration focusing on building up their direct relationships, flexing diplomatic muscles and leaving the United States aside.This emerging dynamic involves countries such as Britain, France, Canada and Japan — often referred to by international relations experts as “middle powers” to distinguish them from superpowers like the United States and China.“These are industrialized democracies, allies of the United States, supporting multilateral rules and institutions,” said Roland Paris, a professor of international relations and the director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.“And as the international order has been disintegrating, and the United States has been indicating that it’s less willing to underwrite it, what we’ve seen is a shift in the role of middle powers,” he added.That role, Professor Paris said, is characterized by the pursuit of “opportunistic and self-interested initiatives that are still collaborative,” including a slew of smaller agreements over trade and defense involving European countries and Canada.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. Court Agrees to Keep Trump Tariffs Intact as Appeal Gets Underway

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      The appeals court’s decision delivered an important but interim victory for the Trump administration.A federal appeals court agreed on Tuesday to allow President Trump to maintain many of his tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners, extending a pause granted shortly after another panel of judges ruled in late May that the import taxes were illegal.The decision, from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, delivered an important but interim victory for the Trump administration, which had warned that any interruption to its steep duties could undercut the president in talks around the world.But the government still must convince the judges that the president appropriately used a set of emergency powers when he put in place the centerpiece of his economic agenda earlier this year. The Trump administration has already signaled it is willing to fight that battle as far as the Supreme Court.The ruling came shortly after negotiators from the United States and China agreed to a framework intended to extend a trade truce between the two superpowers. The Trump administration had warned that those talks and others would have been jeopardized if the appeals court had not granted a fuller stay while arguments proceeded.At the heart of the legal wrangling is Mr. Trump’s novel interpretation of a 1970s law that he used to wage a global trade war on an expansive scale. No president before him had ever used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose tariffs, and the word itself is not even mentioned in the statute.But the law has formed the foundation of Mr. Trump’s campaign to reorient the global economic order. He has invoked its powers to sidestep Congress and impose huge taxes on most global imports, with the goal of raising revenue, bolstering domestic manufacturing and brokering more favorable trade deals with other countries.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      World Bank Forecast Underscores Cost of U.S. Trade War

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      Along with a sharply downgraded projection for global output this year, it urged a “course correction” on trade to help preserve living standards.The global economy is projected to slow sharply this year as President Trump’s trade policy disrupts international commerce and increases economic uncertainty, the World Bank said on Tuesday in a report that underscores the toll of America’s trade war.Despite the weakening outlook, the global economy is not expected to fall into a recession, the World Bank said. However, the trade tension is setting the stage for the weakest decade of growth since the 1960s. Economic development in many of the poorest parts of the world has come to a standstill.Expansion in global output is forecast to slow to 2.3 percent in 2025 from 2.8 percent last year, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report. That is down from the 2.7 percent growth that it forecast in January.“The world economy today is once more running into turbulence,” Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank, wrote in the report. “Without a swift course correction, the harm to living standards could be deep.”The United States enacted across-the-board 10 percent tariffs on imports and 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports this year. It has also threatened “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of trading partners and raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent before lowering them to allow for trade negotiations.The tariffs have pushed the average effective U.S. tariff rate to the highest level in a century.The World Bank released its new forecasts as officials from the United States and China held their second day of trade talks in London. In recent months, the world’s two largest economies have each imposed export controls limiting the other’s access to a broad range of items critical to high-technology and military applications.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      What to Know About China’s Halt of Rare Earth Exports

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      Since early April, China has stopped almost all shipments of critical minerals that are needed for cars, robots, wind turbines, jet fighters and other technologies.China has suspended almost all exports since April 4 of seven kinds of rare earth metals, as well as very powerful magnets made from three of them. The halt has caused increasingly severe shortages that threaten to close many factories in the United States and Europe.Why are these metals so needed, why has China stopped exporting them and, crucially, what happens next?What are rare earths?There are 17 types of metals known as rare earths, which are found near the bottom of the periodic table. Most of them are not actually very rare — they are all over the world, though seldom in large enough ore deposits to be mined efficiently.They are called rare because it is very difficult to separate them from each other. Breaking the chemical bonds that bind them in nature can require more than 100 stages of processing and large quantities of powerful acids.A close-up of a gram of terbium.Romain Rabier/Hans Lucas, via ReutersWhy does China control so much of the rare earth supply?China mines 70 percent of the world’s rare earths. Myanmar, Australia and the United States mine most of the rest. But China does the chemical processing for 90 percent of the world’s rare earths because it refines all of its own ore and also practically all of Myanmar’s and nearly half of U.S. production.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump’s Tariffs Expected to Drag Down the Global Economy

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      Economic growth will slow this year and next as the trade war hampers development in the United States and around the world, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.President Trump’s trade war is expected to slow growth in the world’s leading economies, including the United States, this year and in the years to come, unless world leaders can resolve their differences over trade.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development slashed its outlook for global output to 2.9 percent this year, from 3.3 percent in 2024, the organization said in its economic report released on Tuesday.Economic growth in the United States is expected to be particularly weak, the organization said, rising 1.6 percent this year, a drop from the 2.2 percent projected in March, and 1.5 percent in 2026, down from its previous estimate of 1.6 percent. The U.S. economy grew 2.8 percent in 2024.“Through to the end of 2024, the global economy showed real resilience,” said Mathias Cormann, the organization’s secretary general. “But the global economic environment has become significantly more challenging since.”In the first three months of the year, economic growth in the countries monitored by the organization, which is based in Paris, “dropped abruptly” to 0.1 percent from the last three months of 2024, which is “the slowest rate of growth since the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic some five years ago,” Mr. Cormann said.Since taking office, Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs, then halted them for several weeks, then reinstated some, in the hopes of winning new trade deals with countries ranging from once-close allies like Canada, Mexico and the European Union, as well as longtime rivals like China.The lack of certainty coming from that on-again, off-again strategy, combined with frequent changes in how high the tariffs will eventually be, has roiled markets and disrupted the flow of goods and services around the world. From January to March, many companies rushed goods to the United States, hoping to avoid the higher tariffs, many of which are now set to take effect in July.Even if the Trump administration increases tariffs on most of America’s trading partners by just 10 percent, it would shave off 1.6 percent of economic growth in the country over two years, the report said. Growth on a global scale would contract nearly a full percentage point in the same time span.Further pressure is coming from the need for leading economies, such as those in the European Union, to increase military spending while also investing in the transition to a green economy, the report said.The economies of the 20 countries using the common euro currency are projected to grow to 1 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026, in line with the O.E.C.D. forecast from March. China’s economy is expected to see 4.7 percent growth this year, and 4.3 percent in 2026, down 0.1 percent from the organization’s spring projection.Economists in the organization urged countries to reach agreements on trade and to increase investment to revive economic growth.“Our key recommendation, to all governments, is to engage with each other to address issues in a global trading system cooperatively,” Mr. Cormann said. More

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      Trump Aides Insist That Tariffs Will Remain, Even After Court Ruling

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      One official said that the president is unlikely to delay his initial 90-day pause on some of his highest rates.President Trump’s top economic advisers stressed on Sunday that they would not be deterred by a recent court decision that declared many of the administration’s tariffs to be illegal, as they pointed out a variety of additional authorities that the White House could invoke as it looks to pressure China and others into negotiations.They also signaled that Mr. Trump had no plans to extend an original 90-day pause on some of his steepest tariff rates, raising the odds that those duties — the mere announcement of which had roiled markets — could take effect as planned in July.“Rest assured, tariffs are not going away,” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday.”Asked about the future of the president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, first announced and quickly suspended in April, Mr. Lutnick added, “I don’t see today that an extension is coming.”The president’s tariff strategy entered uncharted political and legal territory last week after a federal trade court ruled that Mr. Trump had misused an emergency economic powers law in trying to wage a global trade war.The decision would have put a quick halt to those duties, which form the centerpiece of the president’s strategy of pressuring other countries into trade talks. But an appeals court soon granted the government a brief administrative pause to sort out arguments in the case, which is expected to reach the Supreme Court.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. Oil Companies Are ‘Battening Down the Hatches’

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      The industry is bracing for the OPEC Plus oil cartel’s meeting on Saturday, which is widely expected to further increase oil production despite weak demand.U.S. oil companies are pulling back as lower commodity prices take a toll.After two months of crude oil prices hovering around $60 a barrel, companies are shutting down drilling rigs and laying off workers as they pare spending. It now appears very likely that U.S. oil production will not grow much this year, if at all.There are two main reasons for low oil prices. President Trump’s trade war is likely to slow the global economy, hurting demand for fuel. And OPEC Plus, an oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia, is increasing production of oil as demand is softening.On Saturday, eight members of the cartel are widely expected to announce plans to bring even more oil to market this summer, which could send prices lower still.American oil companies are not waiting to find out.While the oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron are maintaining their spending plans, smaller companies are pulling back. Those focused on drilling for oil now plan to spend around 3.5 percent less this year than previously planned, according to a BloombergNEF analysis of a dozen publicly traded companies. All things equal, more drilling tends to drive oil prices down and less drilling generally props them up.“We can’t run our program on hope,” Tom Jorden, chief executive of the oil and gas producer Coterra Energy, told analysts during an earnings call this month. “So we are battening down the hatches, expecting this to last for a while.”The Houston-based company said it would drill less in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, the top U.S. oil field, and more in the Northeast, which is rich in natural gas. Prices for that fuel, used in power plants and for heating, have been much more resilient.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More