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Trump and DeSantis Appear at the Iowa State Fair in a Rare Candidate Convergence
Former President Donald J. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida will arrive at the Iowa State Fair on Saturday, a convergence of the two leading Republican presidential candidates that will highlight the busiest day of state politicking amid farm animals, corn dogs and oversize lemonades.The fair is a throwback to an earlier era of politics more dominated by in-person interactions than cable news appearances, featuring a mix of speechifying and politicians flipping pork chops, and it is drawing most of the 2024 field.Mr. Trump, who famously brought a helicopter to the fair in 2015 and gave children rides during his first primary campaign, is flying to Iowa for a single day of campaigning. In an effort to poke his leading rival, he is bringing along a host of prominent Florida Republicans who have endorsed him over Mr. DeSantis.Mr. DeSantis, who replaced his campaign manager earlier in the week, is focused on turning around his political fortunes in Iowa. He has spent two full days campaigning in the state ahead of the fair and ticking off visits to more of Iowa’s 99 counties, all of which he has pledged to visit.In fact, while recording a podcast in downtown Des Moines, Mr. DeSantis predicted on Thursday that he would complete that feat by October, a timeline that suggests a particularly aggressive next two months of events in the state.On Friday, a number of lower-polling candidates fanned out across the fairgrounds, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Perry Johnson, Larry Elder and Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Miami, all seeking attention from potential Iowa caucusgoers.“This is amazing — I feel like I’m at Disneyworld,” Mr. Suarez, who is likely to miss the first debate later this month, said in a chat with Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, who invited every candidate to a friendly Q. and A. session she is billing as “fair-side chats.”Almost everyone accepted the invitation, with the notable exception of Mr. Trump. He has criticized Ms. Reynolds for her plans to stay neutral in the primary and tried to take credit for her election.Mr. DeSantis has sought to take advantage of Mr. Trump’s comments about Ms. Reynolds, with his allies and advisers arguing that Mr. Trump has provided an opening by demeaning the popular Republican governor.On Friday, Mr. DeSantis scored the formal endorsement of a prominent conservative radio host in the state, Steve Deace, who has been open about his hope that the party won’t nominate Mr. Trump again.While Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump are not expected to cross paths on Saturday, it is not clear when they will next be in the same location. Mr. Trump has vacillated about attending the first debate of the primary — less than two weeks away — suggesting that he does not need to, given his polling lead. He has also said that he won’t sign the required loyalty pledge.“You have to earn this nomination, and you have to show up,” Mr. DeSantis said on the “Ruthless” podcast on Thursday. “You have to debate. You’ve got to be willing to answer questions. You’ve got to be willing to defend your record, and you’ve got to articulate a vision for the future.” More
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At Iowa State Fair, Kim Reynolds Gives 2024 Republicans a Safe Space
Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa did not ask former Vice President Mike Pence about Donald J. Trump’s indictments, the topic about which he is most often grilled on the campaign trail. Nor did she ask him if his life had changed “since Tucker Carlson ruined your career,” as one voter shouted during his appearance at the political soapbox Thursday.Instead, the popular Republican governor struck a different tone on Friday morning, asking the former vice president what she called the “fast three”: his funniest moment on the trail, his favorite food at the fair and his favorite walkout song.At the Des Moines Register’s soapbox, a longtime fixture at the fair, candidates have 20 minutes to make their pitch to a discerning crowd of voters who relish the retail politicking that is crucial to winning Iowa. Presidential hopefuls come to the fair with the goal of avoiding awkward moments and on-the-fly responses to audience questions.But Ms. Reynolds’s new “fair-side” chats are shaping up to be more of a safe space, where the 2024 Republican field has so far answered softball questions tailored to their platforms, allowing them to speak about proposed policies at length with little follow-up.The Iowa governor also seems to have mastered the art of helping the candidates while boosting her own brand, leveling criticism at the Biden administration while promoting her legislative successes in the state between their responses.This friendly atmosphere may be why Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina are skipping the soapbox altogether, in favor of conversations with Ms. Reynolds on Saturday and Tuesday.Ms. Reynolds’ questions so far have focused on candidates’ successes in their respective offices, how to curb what she called the Biden administration’s “ridiculous” economic policies and how they plan to win the nomination.But she has also served to humanize the contenders. She laughed off accidentally introducing Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota as the governor of North Carolina. She equated “Miami nice” to “Iowa nice” with Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Miami. And with Mr. Pence, she joked about her husband’s likeness to the former vice president.“I can say with confidence, he’s a very handsome man,” Mr. Pence said. “I agree,” Ms. Reynolds responded. More
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DeSantis Is Heckled During Iowa Bus Tour
Ron DeSantis’s six-stop bus tour began inauspiciously on Friday, when he was drowned out by two women who heckled the Florida governor with cowbells and a bullhorn during his first event of the day, about 40 miles west of Des Moines.They greeted DeSantis with chants protesting his policies as Florida governor on L.G.B.T.Q. issues, gender identity and education. “Go back to Florida,” they shouted in unison as DeSantis emerged from his campaign bus at the Freedom Rock, a patriotically painted boulder in Menlo, Iowa.“Racist, fascist, anti-gay, Ron DeSantis, go away,” they chanted.At one point, a minor fracas ensued between one of the women and a man who was there to welcome DeSantis. Handlers for the governor and local law enforcement stepped in between them. The governor’s remarks were mostly muffled by the chants, and his aides quickly escorted journalists away from the scene to an awaiting travel van. More
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The Iowa State Fair Continues Friday, as Republican Candidates Seek a Moment
The butter cow is carved. The pork chops are prepped. And the candidates who weren’t at the Iowa State Fair on Thursday are on their way.Six candidates for the Republican presidential nomination will be circulating through the fairgrounds on Friday, as they try to woo voters months ahead of this crucial first nominating contest.A day at the fair — one of the largest in the nation — has long been one of Iowa’s quirkiest political traditions. Presidential aspirants make their campaign pitch but also flip pork chops at a grill sponsored by the state’s pork industry, pay homage to a sculpture of a cow made of 600 pounds of butter and eat their share of fried foods — all while navigating hecklers and a media throng.It doesn’t always go as planned: In 2007, Mitt Romney flipped his chop into the gravel. (He lost the caucuses that year but won the party’s nomination four years later.) And in 2015, Donald J. Trump, walking through the fair in a navy blazer and buffed white dress shoes, offered rides at random to handfuls of Iowa children in his helicopter parked nearby. (He, too, lost the caucus but won the nomination.)Five months before the 2024 caucuses, Iowa has already emerged as a make-or-break contest in this race. With Mr. Trump leading by a double-digit margin, the state represents the best opportunity for his rivals to stop his march to the nomination. If one of them can take him down — or even come close to beating him — it would show cracks in his support and potentially undercut the narrative that he still has a stranglehold on the Republican base. If Mr. Trump wins in Iowa, party strategists say, it will be difficult to slow his momentum, particularly as the race broadens out to states across the country.Friday’s lineup at the fair is a list of Republican candidates who have been struggling to break into the top tier of the nomination race, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Miami and Larry Elder, the conservative commentator.Several candidates are scheduled to deliver speeches at the political soapbox, a small podium open to the public and sponsored by the Des Moines Register. Others will participate in public Q. and A. sessions with Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, opting for a more scripted encounter with a fellow Republican.While Saturday will bring Mr. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to the event, the Friday attendees are likely to enjoy a day basking in the Iowa attention without the former president stealing the show. More
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How Are Iowa Democrats? ‘I Can’t Even Describe to You How Bad It Is.’
Not long ago, Iowa was the center of the Democratic political universe.In 2019, two dozen presidential candidates roamed the Iowa State Fair to grill pork chops and admire the famed butter cow as they vied for the state’s caucusgoers. Some Democrats still saw the state’s rightward jolt in 2016 as temporary, believing that their flipping of two congressional seats in 2018 had reaffirmed Iowa’s purple status. Days before the 2020 general election, Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaigned in Des Moines.Now, as Republican presidential candidates flock to the fair, Iowa Democrats are at their lowest point in decades.“It is so bad,” said Claire Celsi, a Democratic state senator from West Des Moines. “I can’t even describe to you how bad it is.”Ms. Celsi and others described themselves as exhausted by repeated defeats at the ballot box, an inability to slow Republicans at the State Capitol and the loss to South Carolina of the first-in-the-nation status in Democratic presidential contests. Deep in the minority, Democrats in the State Legislature have squabbled among themselves, ousting their party’s State Senate leader in June after a dispute over personnel.In interviews this week, Iowa Democrats said the state now stood as a warning sign for what happens when their party falls out of touch with voters who once made up key parts of its electoral coalition.“There’s no question that Democrats are at a low point in Iowa,” said former Representative Dave Loebsack, whose eastern Iowa seat, which he had held for 14 years, flipped to a Republican when he chose not to seek re-election in 2020. “It’s difficult even to recruit people to run when we’re so far down.”Iowa’s transition to a deep-red state has taken place with remarkable speed. Democrats controlled the State Senate as recently as 2016. In 2018, Democrats won three of the state’s four congressional seats and three of the six statewide offices. But after the party’s bungling of its 2020 presidential caucuses, President Donald J. Trump cruised to victory in Iowa that November.Claire Celsi, a Democratic state senator from West Des Moines, said simply of the situation for Iowa Democrats, “It is so bad.”Hilary Swift for The New York TimesThe midterm elections last year were a Democratic blood bath in Iowa, even though the party had over-performed in much of the rest of the country.The underfunded, little-known Democratic nominee for governor lost by 19 percentage points to Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, and carried only four of the state’s 99 counties. Republicans took all four congressional seats for the first time in 50 years, enacted a gun rights amendment in the State Constitution, ousted two of the three Democrats in statewide office and took supermajority control of both chambers of the Legislature.The three congressional seats Democrats held as recently as 2020 are still winnable, Democrats say, but the party doesn’t have 2024 candidates for any of them so far.“We should have candidates out there thinking, ‘If I get a few breaks, I can win,’” said Pete D’Alessandro, a senior aide to Senator Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaigns in Iowa. “That we don’t is a direct reflection of having an incompetent party for the last couple of years.”Democrats, including Mr. D’Alessandro, express optimism about the party’s new chairwoman, Rita Hart, who has sought to empower county-level leaders. Ms. Hart, who in 2020 lost the congressional race for Mr. Loebsack’s seat by six votes, said Iowa Democrats would have to fight for a focus on local issues.Ms. Hart took over the party in January, after a period in which Iowa Democrats had four leaders in less than two years. She has sought to instill some continuity while reorienting the party’s priorities away from the presidential cycle and toward local needs.“The way the media has changed, the way people have gotten their information, we have not shifted to understanding that we’ve got to talk to our fellow Iowans,” she said. “I’m very convinced that we’ve got to empower our county parties to do just that.”The struggles of Iowa Democrats reflect the broader migration of white, rural voters to Republicans, a long-term trend that has accelerated during Mr. Trump’s political career. Iowa has just two big cities, Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, and two college towns that state Democrats can still count on winning.Interviews with two dozen Democrats in the state suggest that the party has suffered from a confluence of problems, including diminished campaigning during the coronavirus pandemic; Mr. Trump’s appeal to the white, rural voters who dominate state politics; and weak messaging in the 2022 elections.Democrats have faced numerous setbacks this year, including Republicans’ passage of a six-week abortion ban — which has been temporarily halted by a court order — and a new program that allocates state money toward private school vouchers.“It’s just been so exhausting and frustrating to continue to take losses,” said Sarah Trone Garriott, a Democratic state senator who was the party’s rare bright spot last year when she flipped a suburban Des Moines district to beat the Republican president of the chamber.She added, “If I had known everything that I was getting into, I don’t think I would have run in the first place, because it’s just been really hard, but I see so much opportunity in Iowa.”Losing the first presidential contest after the state party had suffered international ridicule for the 2020 caucuses fiasco forced what several Democrats described as a long-overdue reckoning. No longer can the party rely on a periodic influx of fund-raising and attention. Internal discussions now center on how to act more like successful red-state Democrats elsewhere, nominating moderate candidates who can attract independent voters who have been tilting more conservative with each election.“I’m hopeful that now our attention is on getting people elected and getting Democrats to turn out the vote rather than a national entity that overtakes everything,” said J.D. Scholten, a state representative from Sioux City who in 2018 nearly defeated Representative Steve King, a hard-right Republican with a history of racist remarks.Mr. Scholten, who spent years playing professional baseball in several countries, will not attend the State Fair because he’s pitching for a team in the Netherlands this summer. Ms. Celsi said she wouldn’t go because it is “Kim Reynolds’s show.” And Mr. Loebsack said he was staying home because the country music acts at the fair’s amphitheater did not appeal to him and his wife.Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, a Republican, holding an interview at the State Fair. She easily won re-election last year.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesIt’s clear that Iowa Democrats have a long way to go.Republicans, with a hammerlock on the state’s politics, dominate fund-raising and media attention — and that was before the G.O.P. presidential candidates made themselves regulars at local fund-raisers and other political events.That has left Democrats doing a lot of finger-pointing and soul-searching about what has gone wrong, whether they have hit rock bottom yet and how to maneuver their way back to political relevance.“The Iowa Democratic Party didn’t prepare for the transition to understanding and using social media,” said Jack Hatch, a longtime state legislator who was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014. “Some individual campaigns understood, but not the party. As a result, we had one message for all campaigns, which weakened all our campaigns. One message doesn’t work in Iowa.” More
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What Is the Iowa State Fair and Why Does It Matter?
The Iowa State Fair is one of the most famous stops in a presidential campaign, known for delivering the kind of memorable moments that can define a candidacy.The fair, which attracts about a million people over ten days, amounts to a political obstacle course for candidates, who must woo voters in unscripted interactions, flip a pork chop for the cameras, deliver their stump speeches in a public forum and — most treacherously of all — eat fair food while avoiding unflattering photographs. It all happens before the hundreds of thousands of Iowa voters visiting the fair, throngs of reporters and banks of televisions cameras.And it can easily go very wrong.In 1987, Joe Biden lifted passages of a speech by British Labor Party leader Neil Kinnock without attribution, adding to questions of plagiarism that ultimately lead to his early withdrawal from the race.In 2004, John Kerry, one of the country’s richest lawmakers who had been struggling to show he connected with regular voters, ordered a strawberry smoothie — a choice that had his aides scrambling to find a corn dog.And in 2012, Mitt Romney responded to a heckler with the line, “Corporations are people, my friend.” The comment came to be a shorthand for Democratic attacks that he sided with business over American workers.These kinds of moments can create narratives that become cemented in the public perceptions of the candidates — even when the facts may be slightly off. In 2007, Senator Fred Thompson, who ran for the Republican nomination, traveled the fair in a golf cart and, allegedly, $500 Gucci loafers. Years later, Mr. Thompson insisted that he did not own the shoes.This year, all the major Republican presidential candidates, except former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, are expected to attend. The biggest showdown is expected to be on Saturday, when both former President Donald Trump and his major rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, will be circulating through the fairgrounds.Mr. DeSantis will participate in a conversation with Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa. Mr. Trump is skipping the organized events to attend with an entourage of endorsers not from Iowa but Florida — a dig at Mr. DeSantis. It’s the kind of unconventional approach Mr. Trump has taken to the event in the past. In 2015, he caused a media frenzy when he landed his helicopter near the fairgrounds and offered rides to children. More
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Racing to Stop Trump, Republicans Descend on the Iowa State Fair
Over decades of presidential campaigns, the Iowa way has been to hop from town to town, taking questions from all comers and genuflecting to the local culinary traditions. Going everywhere and meeting everyone has been the gospel of how to win over voters in the low-turnout midwinter caucuses that kick off the American presidential cycle.Now former President Donald J. Trump is delivering what could be a death blow to the old way.Five months from the 2024 caucuses, Mr. Trump holds a comfortable polling lead in a state he has rarely set foot in. If any of his dozen challengers hope to stop his march to a third straight nomination, they will almost certainly have to halt, or at least slow, him in Iowa after spending the better part of a year making their case. A commanding victory by Mr. Trump could create a sense of inevitability around his candidacy that would be difficult to overcome.As Mr. Trump and nearly all of his Republican rivals converge in the coming days at the Iowa State Fair, the annual celebration of agriculture and stick-borne fried food will serve as the latest stage for a nationalized campaign in which the former president and his three indictments have left the rest of the field starved for attention.“You’ve got to do it in Iowa, otherwise it’s gone, it’s all national media,” said Doug Gross, a Republican strategist who was the party’s nominee for governor of the state in 2002. “The chance to show that he’s vulnerable is gone. You’ve got to do it here, and you’ve got to do it now.”At the Iowa State Fair on Wednesday, Dana Wanken, known as Spanky, cleaned the grill outside the pork tent, one of the destinations where Republican presidential candidates will converge in the coming days to compete for the attention of voters.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesMost of the Republican candidates are trying to do Iowa the old way, and all of them are less popular and receiving far less visibility than Mr. Trump, who has visited the state just six times since announcing his campaign in November.The same polling that shows Mr. Trump with a wide lead nationally and in Iowa also indicates that his competitors have a plausible path to carve into his support in the crucial first state. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that while Mr. Trump held 44 percent of the support among Iowa Republicans — more than double that of his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida — 47 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters said they would consider backing another candidate.Mr. DeSantis, for all his bad headlines about staff shake-ups, campaign resets and financial troubles, holds significant structural advantages in Iowa.He has endorsements from a flotilla of Iowa state legislators; a campaign team flush with veterans from the 2016 presidential bid of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who beat Mr. Trump in the state; and a super PAC with $100 million to spend. Mr. DeSantis has also said he will visit all 99 counties, a quest that has long revealed a candidate’s willingness to do the grunt work of traveling to Iowa’s sparsely populated rural corners to scrounge for every last vote.Convincing Iowans that they should be searching for a Trump alternative may be Mr. DeSantis’s toughest task.“Trump’s supporters are very vocal, so sometimes being very vocal sounds like there’s a lot of them,” said Tom Shipley, a state senator from southwest Iowa who has endorsed Mr. DeSantis. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the case.”Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and his family at the Clayton County Fair in Iowa last weekend. While Mr. DeSantis has drawn receptive crowds and has been cheered at the state’s big political events, there is no flood of Iowans rushing to support him.Rachel Mummey for The New York TimesYet while Mr. DeSantis has drawn receptive crowds and has been cheered at the state’s big political events, there is no flood of Iowans rushing to support him. Through the end of June, just 17 Iowans had given his campaign $200 or more, according to a report filed to the Federal Election Commission. Nikki Haley, who lags far behind him in polls, had 25 such Iowa donors, while Mr. Trump had 117. Former Vice President Mike Pence had just seven.(The number of small donors Mr. DeSantis had in Iowa is not publicly known because his campaign has an arrangement with WinRed, the Republican donor platform, that effectively prevented the disclosure of information about small donors.)Mr. DeSantis’s supporters are quick to point out that the three most recent winners of competitive Iowa caucuses — Mr. Cruz, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008 — each came from behind with support from the same demographic: social conservatives. None of the three won the presidential nomination, but all of them used Iowa to propel themselves into what became a one-on-one matchup with the party’s eventual nominee.Operatives and supporters of the non-Trump candidates warn that Iowa caucusgoers are notoriously fickle. Around this point in 2015, Mr. Cruz had just 8 percent support in a poll by The Des Moines Register. Mr. Trump was first at 23 percent and Ben Carson was second, with 18 percent.“It’s a marathon, not a sprint,” said Chris Cournoyer, a Republican state senator from Le Claire who is backing Nikki Haley, who was at 4 percent in the recent Times/Siena poll.What’s different about Iowa this time, according to interviews with more than a dozen state legislators, political operatives and veterans of past caucuses, is that before Republicans consider a broad field of candidates, they are asking themselves a more basic, binary question: Trump or not Trump?Jeanne Dietrich of Omaha, Neb., displayed an autograph from former President Donal J. Trump after attending the opening of his Iowa campaign headquarters in July. Five months from the 2024 caucuses, Mr. Trump holds a comfortable polling lead in the state.Christopher Smith for The New York TimesWhere in the past Iowans might have told those running for president that they were on a list of three or four top contenders, Mr. Trump’s dominance over Republican politics has left candidates fighting for a far smaller slice of voters. The longer a large field exists, the harder it will be for Mr. DeSantis or anyone else to consolidate enough support to present a challenge to Mr. Trump.“These people are absolutely going to vote for the former president, and those people are absolutely not going to vote for the former president,” said Eric Woolson, who has been in Iowa politics so long he was part of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s 1988 presidential campaign before working for a series of Republican presidential hopefuls: George W. Bush, Mr. Huckabee, Michele Bachmann and Scott Walker.Now Mr. Woolson, who owns an organic catnip farm in southern Iowa, serves as the state director for Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, who is polling at 1 percent in Iowa. Mr. Woolson said the first hurdle for 2024 campaigns was sorting out which voters would even consider candidates other than Mr. Trump.“In past elections, voters were keeping an open mind of, ‘Well, maybe I can still vote for this candidate, or maybe this one’s my second choice or whatever,’” he said. “Now there’s just such stark lines that have been drawn.”Those lines are compounded by a political and media environment centered not on Iowa’s local news outlets but on conservative cable and internet shows.Nikki Haley, who lags far behind Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump in polls, reported that just 25 Iowans had given her campaign $200 or more through the end of June, according to a report filed to the Federal Election Commission.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesFor decades, presidential candidates from both parties have flocked to The Des Moines Register’s state fair soapbox, a centrally located stage that has served as a gathering spot for the political news media and passers-by on their way to the Ferris wheel and the butter cow. It was at the soapbox in 2011 where Mitt Romney responded to a heckler with his infamous quip, “Corporations are people, my friend.”Mr. Trump skipped The Register’s soapbox in 2016 in favor of a far more dramatic appearance — landing at the fair in his helicopter and offering rides to children.This year, only lower-polling candidates — Ms. Haley, Mr. Pence and Vivek Ramaswamy, among others — are scheduled to speak at the soap box. All of the contenders except Mr. Trump will instead sit for interviews at the fairgrounds with Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, a Republican who has pledged to stay neutral but has clashed with Mr. Trump. The scripted nature of those appearances is likely to cut down on the kinds of viral moments that once drove politics at the fair.Mr. Trump does not need to participate in Iowa’s retail politics, his supporters say, because he is already universally known and has been omnipresent on the conservative media airwaves as he fights against his indictments.“Trump can rely on the network that’s out here already,” said Stan Gustafson, a Republican state representative from just south of Des Moines. “It’s already put together.”Yet at least a few Iowa Republicans supporting Mr. Trump say they are looking to the future — just a bit further out than next year’s caucuses. Mr. Gustafson, who has endorsed Mr. Trump, said he was eyeing which candidates he might support in 2028.Tim Kraayenbrink, a state senator who also backs Mr. Trump, said Iowa’s turn in the campaign cycle was a good opportunity to judge which candidates would make a good running mate — as long as it is not Mr. Pence, he clarified.“He’s going to have some quality people to choose from for vice president,” Mr. Kraayenbrink said of Mr. Trump.Andrew Fischer More
