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      US looks unable to talk Netanyahu out of planned invasion of Lebanon

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      The Biden administration is losing influence over whether Benjamin Netanyahu launches a ground invasion into southern Lebanon or not.For more than a year, Joe Biden and his senior advisers have managed to forestall an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon in fear of a larger war that could envelop the entire Middle East.In the days after the 7 October attack, Biden phoned Netanyahu to talk him out of a massive retaliation against Hezbollah, which had begun firing guided rockets against Israeli positions following the Hamas raid.In April this year, Biden also told Netanyahu that the US would not support Israel in an offensive war against Iran after Tehran launched dozens of loitering munitions, cruise missiles and drones toward Israel.But on Monday, US outlets reported that Netanyahu’s administration had told White House officials they were planning a limited ground incursion into Lebanon, essentially escalating a conflict with Hezbollah and its backer Iran to a level that Biden and his team have tried desperately to avoid.The Washington Post reported that Israel was planning a limited campaign – smaller than its 2006 war against Hezbollah – that nonetheless would mark a drastic escalation with Hezbollah and Iran. The New York Times suggested US officials believed they had talked Israel out of a full invasion of Lebanon, but that smaller incursions into southern Lebanon would continue.But Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defence minister, has briefed a meeting of local council heads in northern Israel on Monday, according to the Times of Israel. “The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon … We will do this. And as I said here a month ago [that] we will shift the center of gravity [to the north], this is what I say now: we will change the situation and return the residents home.”Earlier that day, he had told Israel Defense Forces soldiers that to return some 60,000 Israelis to their homes in the country’s north, we “will use all the means that may be required – your forces, other forces, from the air, from the sea, and on land”.The plan to attack comes at a unique moment – with war hawks dominating domestic Israeli politics at the same time as a lame duck Biden administration appears increasingly unable or unwilling to intervene in the conflict. And, according to analysts, Netanyahu believes he has a limited window around the US elections to attack Iranian proxies across the region.With just a month left until the US presidential elections, the Biden administration has launched a tepid effort at a ceasefire that Netanyahu appears to have chosen to ignore – or simply to wait out until US elections that could bring in a Trump administration that would do even less to restrain him than the current one has.“Netanyahu made a calculation, and the calculation was that there was no way that the Democrats between now and November 5th [election day] could do anything that would criticise, let alone restrain him from that,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who focuses on US foreign policy and the Middle East.“You saw [vice-president Kamala] Harris’s statement, you saw the White House statement, you saw the Democrat and Republican consensus on the killing of Nasrallah and what the Israelis have done there,” he said. “And since Iran is involved in this, unlike in Gaza, the toxicity of animus against Iran in this town is so intense that the Republican party, which is now the ‘Israel can do no wrong’ party, is just winging for the administration.”Until recently, prominent US officials have thought they still had a chance to conclude a ceasefire and prevent the war from escalating further. Last week, US and French officials along with dozens of other countries called for a ceasefire in Lebanon. US officials briefed on the matter said they believed the “time was right” and that Israel would sign up.A western official last week told the Guardian that the Israeli threat to invade northern Lebanon was probably “psyops” largely designed to force Hezbollah and Iran to the negotiating table.But, at the same time, the official said, the situation in the region was extremely volatile, and could be upset by as little as a single drone strike against a sensitive target.One day later, a massive airstrike launched by the Israeli air force killed the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, upending security calculations in the region and potentially emboldening Israeli officials to believe they could fundamentally change the security dynamics in the region.“I understand, and happen to be very understanding of the administration position, because I spent almost 30 years inside knowing full the constraints of how to get anything done in this region, which is very hard,” Miller said. “But the notion that a US-French proposal for a three-week ceasefire in the middle of all this could work, I mean, it was, it was simply not well thought out.” More

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      Death of Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Leader, Pushes Mideast Conflict Into New Territory

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      Tehran is faced with deciding how, or whether, to retaliate after the death of the leader of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militia and Iranian proxy.Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, on Saturday confirmed the death of Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader, in a strike marking a major escalation of Israel’s campaign against Iran’s proxies in the Middle East.The death of Mr. Nasrallah, after Israeli bombs flattened three apartment buildings shielding what it said were Hezbollah’s underground headquarters, pushed Israel’s war against Iran-backed forces into new territory. Iran has long sought to have the proxies — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — serve as the front line in its fight with Israel.But if one of its most important military assets, Hezbollah, has been substantially weakened, it could leave Israel feeling less threatened and put pressure on Iran to decide whether to respond.While fiercely condemning the attack, Iran’s leaders have not taken any direct steps in retaliation, nor have they punished Israel for the killing last month of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. That inaction has led some analysts to conclude that the Iranians do not want to risk a direct confrontation with Israel.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, released a statement on Saturday saying, “All the resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah.”Iranians at an anti-Israeli gathering in support of Hezbollah in Tehran on Saturday.Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      A Decimated Hezbollah Is a Serious Blow for Iran

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      The death of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike has dramatically weakened a key Iranian deterrent against its archenemy, Israel. Iran has long sought to have the proxies it supports in the region — including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and forces in Syria, Yemen and Iraq — serve as the front line in its long-running fight with Israel. But if its most important military asset, Hezbollah, has been decimated, it may have no choice but to respond, experts said Saturday. The decisions it makes will have a significant impact on the next stage of a growing conflict that now threatens to engulf the region.“Iran’s choices really range from ugly to unpalatable,” said Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization.Julien Barnes-Dacey, the Middle East and North Africa program director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Israel’s assassination of Mr. Nasrallah significantly raises the risk of a dangerous conflagration in the Middle East, and beyond.“It really is a question of whether Hezbollah has the capacity to launch wide-ranging missile strikes on Israel at this point,” Mr. Barnes-Dacey said. If it does not, “this could now push Iran to make a dash for nuclear weapons because they see that as their only effective form of deterrence left standing.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Israel Bombs Residential Site in Effort to Kill Hezbollah Leader

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      The strike came barely an hour after the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, delivered a fiery address to the U.N. General Assembly.The Israeli military bombed residential buildings south of Beirut on Friday that it said stood over the central headquarters of Hezbollah, barely an hour after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a combative address to the United Nations in which he vowed to defeat the group and other Iranian-backed militias.A huge blast shook the Dahiya, an area south of Beirut where Hezbollah holds sway, and thick black smoke began rising above the skyline, in what appeared to have been the most intense bombing in the area since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began last October.The strike targeted Hassan Nasrallah, the cleric who since 1992 has led Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese armed group and political party, according to Israeli and American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence. It was not immediately clear whether Mr. Nasrallah was killed, though there were growing concerns in Tehran that he was in the buildings when they were hit, three Iranian officials said.Lebanon’s health minister, Firass Abiad, said the bombing had caused the “complete decimation” of four to six residential buildings. At least six people were killed and more than 90 others injured, the Health Ministry said, although Mr. Abiad warned that the toll was likely to rise.“They are residential buildings. They were filled with people,” Mr. Abiad told The New York Times. “Whoever is in those buildings is now under the rubble.”An injured person being helped at the scene of the bombing.Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      in US Politics

      Donald Trump briefed on suspected Iranian assassination plot

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      US intelligence officials have briefed Donald Trump about a suspected Iranian plot to kill him, his campaign has said.The briefing, from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), is believed to have focused on a scheme unrelated to two failed domestic assassination attempts against the Republican nominee for president, and came amid reports suggesting that Iran is conducting an ongoing hack against Trump’s campaign.Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign’s spokesperson, said the briefing concerned “real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate [Trump] in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States”.He added: “Intelligence officials have identified that these continued and coordinated attacks have heightened in the past few months, and law enforcement officials across all agencies are working to ensure President Trump is protected and the election is free from interference.”The ODNI confirmed to the Guardian on Wednesday morning that the briefing took place.Trump referred to the briefing in a post on his Truth Social site and predicted that another assassination attempt would be made against him.“Big threats on my life by Iran,” he wrote. “Moves were already made by Iran that didn’t work out, but they will try again. Not a good situation for anyone. I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before….An attack on a former President is a Death Wish for the attacker!”Intelligence officials were reported to have been tracking an Iranian-backed conspiracy to kill Trump even before the 13 July attempt, which was carried out by a lone gunman, Thomas Crooks, who killed one rally attendee before being killed himself by a Secret Service agent.Investigators have found no evidence that Crooks, 20, was part of a larger plot and have concluded that he acted alone.The Iranian motivation to kill Trump is believed to stem from a desire for revenge over his decision when he was president to order the US strike that killed Maj Gen Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds force in January 2020.Iran has denied plotting to assassinate Trump.It came as a Senate report was issued on Wednesday on Trump being shot in July in an attempt to kill him at an election rally in Pennsylvania. It concluded that there was a failure of leadership among the Secret Service team assigned to protect him.The plot identified by the ODNI is thought not only to be distinct from the Pennsylvania attempt but also from a second suspected domestic assassination bid that took place at Trump’s golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida, earlier this month that was foiled after a Secret Service agent fired on an armed man who was spotted lurking in bushes.That alleged gunman, Ryan Routh, was apprehended after fleeing and was charged on Tuesday with the attempted assassination of Trump.In August, federal prosecutors charged a Pakistani man said to have ties to Iran with taking part in an alleged murder plot against an unidentified US politician.Last week, US intelligence officials said Iranian hackers stole materials from the Trump campaign and passed them to media outlets and the now-defunct campaign of Joe Biden, which all declined to publish them. A Microsoft threat assessment analysis has linked the hack to a group within the Iranian revolutionary guards. More

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      Trump campaign’s suspected Iranian hack may still be happening

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      A suspected Iranian hack of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has continued within the last 10 days and may still be happening, according to a journalist who received illegally obtained documents from the Republican nominee’s election effort.Judd Legum, the publisher of the progressive newsletter Popular Information, revealed that he was sent a letter that Trump’s lawyer had written to the New York Times on 15 September from a source called “Robert”, as well as dossiers on three potential running mates, including JD Vance, the current GOP vice-presidential nominee.The letter was verified to be authentic. “Robert” appeared to be the same source who had leaked other Trump materials to Politico, the New York Times and the Washington Post in August. The FBI has said it is investigating that leak as a suspected Iranian hack. The source known as “Robert” has been linked by a Microsoft threat analysis to a group within the theocratic regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which sent out phishing emails to presidential campaigns.US intelligence agencies revealed last week that Iranian hackers passed sensitive information stolen from Trump’s campaign to Joe Biden’s now-defunct presidential campaign in June and July. Legum’s disclosure suggests that the breach may have been more extensive than previously known and could still be under way despite the efforts of US security agencies.Legum said that he received a message from “Robert” on 18 September containing the cover page of a dossier on Vance. “Robert refused to identify himself,” Legum wrote, except to suggest it was the same “Robert” from the previous leaks.Legum – whose own communications were made public after the 2016 Russian hack of Hillary Clinton’s then campaign chair John Podesta – described then receiving a 271-page file on Vance, along with thick dossiers on Doug Burgum, the South Dakota governor, and Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, both of whom were considered by Trump as possible running mates. All documents were marked “Privileged & Confidential”.He said he was also sent a dozen emails purporting to be from senior Trump advisers Susie Wiles and Dan Scavino and pollster John McLaughlin, dated from October 2023 until last August.Legum said he also received a four-page letter sent by a Trump lawyer to three individuals at the New York Times just nine days ago, further evidence that the breach had not been plugged.“The letter has not been made public by either the Trump campaign or the paper,” Legum wrote.Legum then provided a copy of the letter to Ben Smith, the editor-in-chief of Semafor, who confirmed it as genuine after checking with a source at the New York Times who had already seen it. The letter complained about a Times article that questioned Trump’s validity as a successful businessman, Smith wrote in a separate piece.“The legitimacy of the letter proves that the person or people representing themselves as Robert has stolen electronic communications from people associated with the Trump campaign within the last 10 days,” Legum concluded.During a rally in New York last Wednesday, Trump referred to the disclosure of the breach from US intelligence agencies, saying: “Iran hacked into my campaign. I don’t know what the hell they found, I’d like to find out. Couldn’t have been too exciting.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe campaigns of Biden and Kamala Harris, as well as the media outlets that have received stolen Trump materials, have all declined to make them public – a stark contrast to the 2016 hack of Clinton, the results of which were published in multiple outlets, while Trump vocally encouraged Russia to continue hacking.Legum said he would stick to the current policy of non-publication.“It was tempting to use this opportunity to turn the tables on the Trump campaign and publish the stolen campaign materials provided to me by Robert,” he wrote. “But I believe that is the wrong approach.”A Trump campaign spokesman, Steven Cheung, said the hack showed that Iran is “terrified of the strength and resolve of Donald J Trump”.Suspected Iranian-backed plots to kill Trump – who has already survived two assassination attempts during the campaign – prompted the Secret Service in July to step up additional security at his rallies. The following month, a Pakistani national with suspected links to Iran was arrested on suspicion of plotting political assassinations on US soil, including against Trump. More

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      Explosion at an Iranian Mine Kills Dozens, State Media Says

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      A methane leak set off the explosion, the country’s official media said, and a rescue effort was underway for those believed to be trapped in the mine.A methane explosion at a coal mine in eastern Iran killed dozens of miners, and the death toll was expected to rise, Iranian state media said on Sunday.The miners died of suffocation from the rapid release of methane and carbon monoxide, according to a report by Iran’s state news agency, IRNA. IRNA, which said earlier Sunday that 51 miners had been killed, later put the figure at 34. Other state media had estimates of the number of people killed that ranged from 30 to 51.At the time of the explosion on Saturday, in the eastern Iranian city of Tabas, there were 69 workers in the mine, IRNA said.Many may still be trapped, according to Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.It was not possible to independently verify details of the incident.Officials say they are trying to work quickly to rescue the workers trapped in the mine, which is operated by the Madanjo Company, according to the Fars news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran ordered an investigation into the explosion, IRNA reported. Mohammad-Ali Akhondi, a crisis management official, urged caution about the rescue efforts, IRNA reported.“The reality is that it is a difficult task to rescue the injured,” he said, according to IRNA. The report said rescuers would need to go about 2,300 feet diagonally and 820 feet vertically underground to reach the trapped workers.Industrial accidents are common in Iran, and many construction and mining sites operate with outdated and inadequate materials.In 2017, dozens of miners were killed and many were hurt after an explosion at a coal mine near the northern Iranian town of Azadshahr, in the Golestan Province. More

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      Iran Hackers Sought to Send Stolen Trump Campaign Information to Biden Camp

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      The emails were part of a sweeping effort by Iran to steal and disseminate sensitive internal communications between aides working for former President Donald J. Trump.Iranian hackers seeking to influence the 2024 election sent excerpts from pilfered Trump campaign documents to people associated with President Biden’s re-election campaign this summer, but the recipients did not respond, law enforcement officials said on Wednesday.The emails, sent in late June and early July, were part of a sweeping effort by Iran to steal and disseminate sensitive internal communications between aides working for former President Donald J. Trump after it gained access to the email accounts of a longtime political adviser, Roger J. Stone.“Iranian malicious cyberactors” sent unsolicited emails that contained “an excerpt taken from stolen, nonpublic material from former President Trump’s campaign,” officials at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the F.B.I. and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency wrote in a joint statement.The intended recipients, who were not identified in the statement, did not appear to have replied. Even as federal officials have suggested that the hackers also targeted the Biden and Harris campaigns, they believe that the emails including the stolen Trump material were sent to be disseminated to his political enemies.“This is further proof the Iranians are actively interfering in the election to help Kamala Harris and Joe Biden because they know President Trump will restore his tough sanctions and stand against their reign of terror,” said Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign.A spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, Morgan Finkelstein, noted that a few people were “targeted on their personal emails with what looked like a spam or phishing attempt,” though she added that she was not aware that any material had been sent to campaign accounts.“We have cooperated with the appropriate law enforcement authorities since we were made aware that individuals associated with the then-Biden campaign were among the intended victims of this foreign influence operation,” she added.The Justice Department’s national security division has been investigating the Stone attack and could charge some of those responsible as early as this week, according to several officials familiar with the situation.In a speech last week, the senior Justice Department official responsible for investigating overseas election interference and the head of the department’s national security division, Matthew G. Olsen, accused Russia of seeking to undermine Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to bolster Mr. Trump’s re-election chances.He also cited Iran’s recent hacking of the Trump campaign as evidence that some adversaries were also seeking to damage Mr. Trump’s chances of victory.In August, the Justice Department indicted a Pakistani citizen with ties to Iran for plotting assassination attempts against top political figures, including the former president. More