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      Arlene Foster ‘wrong’ to say Joe Biden hates UK, says Irish deputy PM

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      Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Micheál Martin, has criticised remarks by the former Democratic Unionist party leader, Arlene Foster, who said Joe Biden “hates” the UK.Martin said Foster was “wrong”, saying her remarks about the US president were “misplaced” as Biden did not hate anyone. “I’m very surprised by that comment,” Martin told RTÉ’s This Morning on Friday.“The one word that you do not associate with Joe Biden is the word ‘hate’. He’s the antithesis of that. He’s the opposite of that. He always speaks about the dignity of every human person. He’s more love than hate by a country mile.”Biden has spoken about the importance of treating everyone with dignity in each of the three speeches he has given on his four-day trip to the island of Ireland.Martin said: “I think it’s a wrong comment by Arlene. In fact, he often references his British heritage as well in terms of his uncle had been involved in the British navy and I think he gave a personal anecdote about that. So I think that was misplaced. He’s not that type of person.”Foster doubled down on her remarks earlier this week, saying on Thursday that the president had “disdain” for the UK.Martin, asked if Foster should withdraw her remarks, said: “Look, people make comments. I just have to say that I would refute it. I don’t have any sense, having met with Joe Biden on quite a number of occasions now, that he hates anybody.”Foster claimed she was reflecting on Biden’s past affinity with the nationalist position in Northern Ireland but others, including the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, said the US president was proud of his Irish heritage but also of the special relationship with the UK.On Thursday, Biden risked irritating Foster and other critics further when he urged the UK to “work closer with Ireland” on strengthening efforts to sustain peace in Northern Ireland.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe row over Foster’s remarks has marred the three-day love-in Biden is enjoying in the Republic of Ireland.He completes his visit on Friday with another heavy schedule in the west of Ireland, before leaving on Air Force One at about midnight.Before that, he will visit Knock at about lunchtime and pray at the nearby basilica and Marian shrine, an important Catholic pilgrimage site said to mark the apparition by Mary, the mother of Jesus, in 1879.He will then honour his son Beau, who died of brain cancer in 2015, during a private visit to the Mayo Roscommon hospice. The hospice has previously paid tribute to Beau Biden, a former Delaware attorney general. In 2017, Joe Biden travelled to the Mayo town to turn the first sod on the site for the new hospice complex, and he again paid tribute to the €6.3m palliative care centre when it opened two years ago.The US president will then visit a genealogy and heritage centre established to help descendants of Irish people who emigrated to the US, including his ancestors on his father’s side, before a final keynote speech outside a cathedral in Ballina. More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: China’s Display of Force Around Taiwan

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      Also, President Biden prepares to visit Northern Ireland and Ireland.A Chinese Navy ship near Taiwan yesterday.Lam Yik Fei for The New York TimesChina’s military show around TaiwanChina sent record numbers of military aircraft, naval ships and an aircraft carrier near Taiwan yesterday on the final day of military exercises. The spectacle capped three days of drills designed to put pressure on the self-governed island.On Monday alone, Taiwan said that 91 Chinese military aircraft had flown into its Air Defense Identification Zone, a buffer that’s broader than Taiwan’s sovereign airspace. That number marked the highest daily total of such Chinese sorties since 2020, when Taiwan began regularly releasing the data. The previous high was 71, set in December and again on Saturday.A first with fighter jets: During the exercises, Chinese J-15 jets took off from the Shandong aircraft carrier deployed near Taiwan’s east coast. The flights appeared to mark the first time that these fighter jets have been tracked entering Taiwan’s zone, an analyst said.China deployed the Shandong to reinforce the country’s claim that it could “surround and encircle” Taiwan, a Taiwan-based researcher said: “That is to say that it can do it on our east coast as well as our west coast.”Context: The drills were in retaliation for a visit to the U.S. by Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen. Still, experts said that the drills were smaller and less menacing than those held after Nancy Pelosi, then the U.S. speaker, visited Taiwan in August.Separately, two of China’s most prominent human rights lawyers, Xu Zhiyong and Ding Jiaxi, were sentenced to 14 and 12 years, some of the lengthiest punishments in years and an indication of how the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, has crushed the last vestiges of dissent.Orangemen, who do not support Irish unification, marked St. Patrick’s Day last month. Andrew Testa for The New York TimesAn Irish welcome for BidenPresident Biden will begin a five-day visit to Northern Ireland and Ireland today. The president, whose family has Irish roots, is known to approach Irish issues from a sentimental rather than a diplomatic perspective. “Being Irish has shaped my entire life,” Biden once said.In Belfast, Biden will celebrate the Good Friday Agreement, which was signed 25 years ago and ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.In the U.S., the peace accord is a cherished diplomatic achievement: Bill Clinton mediated between nationalists, who are mostly Catholic and seek a united Ireland, and unionists, who are mostly Protestant and want to stay with the U.K. In 1998, Biden supported the peace process, but his Irish pride has sometimes led him to take sides, critics say.“I think it’s fair to say that Biden is the most Irish of U.S. presidents, except maybe for Kennedy,” an author of a book about Ireland and the White House said.Family ties: Biden’s itinerary in Ireland includes potential visits to not one but two ancestral homes. Locals are preparing to celebrate Biden with all of the fanfare their towns can muster.An eye on 2024: On the eve of his departure, Biden said that he planned to run again for the presidency, though he did not formally announce a campaign.Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said he had decided to put aside his differences with his defense minister.Ohad Zwigenberg/Associated PressNetanyahu reverses firing of ministerBenjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, announced yesterday that he had reinstated his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who had criticized the contentious plan to overhaul Israel’s justice system. Gallant’s ouster set off protests, prompting the government to suspend its judicial plan until the summer.The reversal came amid a wider effort within Israel to project a sense of unity at a time of deep social division and upheaval — and amid fears that Israel’s enemies had been emboldened by the instability created by the judicial plan.Gallant’s reinstatement was greeted with relief in much of Israel. There have been growing calls for a show of strength after a rise in attacks from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, as well as violence in the occupied West Bank. Many Israelis were particularly alarmed by a rare barrage of rockets from Lebanon last week.Context: Gallant was fired after he said the plan to limit the influence of the Supreme Court had provoked disquiet within the military he oversees, and that it was endangering Israel’s national security.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificThe Dalai Lama’s office said the actions had been lighthearted.Ashwini Bhatia/Associated PressThe Dalai Lama apologized after a video surfaced online showing him kissing a boy on the lips and then saying to the child, “Suck my tongue.”A group of opposition lawmakers in South Korea denounced the U.S. for spying after leaked documents revealed sensitive information about supplying Ukraine with artillery shells.From Opinion: Se-Woong Koo, a South Korean-born writer, argues that Koreans should forgive Japan for historical wrongs and turn their focus on China.The War in UkraineRussian police officers watched military aircraft fly over the Kremlin in 2020.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesUkraine’s air defenses need a big influx of munitions to keep Russia from changing the course of the war, leaked Pentagon documents suggest.In this video, see how Ukrainian military psychologists are training soldiers to confront trauma.The Morning newsletter is about Evan Gershkovich, an American reporter detained in Russia.Around The WorldItaly sent rescue teams to help about 1,200 migrants aboard two overcrowded boats in the Mediterranean, fueling concern about the volume of people attempting the dangerous crossing from Africa to Europe.A man shot and killed four fellow employees at a bank in Kentucky before he was killed by police.Eight people are missing after a building collapsed in an explosion in Marseille, France.Other Big StoriesSyrian truffles are a prized delicacy.Louai Beshara/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTruffle hunting, an economic lifeline in Syria during desperate times, has become a dangerous pursuit: At least 84 people have been killed this season, two groups said, either by land mines, gunmen or after being kidnapped.Bitcoin mines can cause pollution and raise electricity bills for people who live around them.An Asian elephant at a Berlin zoo taught herself to peel bananas.A Morning ReadPreparing har gow, a traditional dumpling, at Shun Lee West.Justin J Wee for The New York TimesWhen a new outpost of Shun Lee, a storied Chinese restaurant in New York City, opened last year, it took only a few bites before fans realized that something was off. Soon, tips flooded the local press. My colleague Katie Rosman dug into the very New York drama, which is at the heart of the history of Chinese food on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.ARTS AND IDEASA check-in line for a flight from New York to Shanghai last week.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesChina: Open, but hard to get toDespite China’s loosened visa rules and relaxed pandemic restrictions, would-be visitors are struggling to book plane tickets: Prices are high, and there are fewer direct flights.That’s partly because airlines have been slow to ramp up their flights. They’re hesitant to add flights when there are practical hurdles: Many visitors need a negative P.C.R. test before departure, consulates are scrambling to handle visa paperwork and about 20 percent of Chinese passports expired during the pandemic.Tensions between the U.S. and China also play a role. During the pandemic, the countries, the world’s two largest economies, suspended each other’s flights in a political tit-for-tat. Airlines need the approval of both countries’ aviation authorities to increase routes.The war in Ukraine is another factor. Russia has banned U.S. and European carriers from its airspace, meaning flights to China now require longer routes with more fuel and flight crew.As a result, families suffer. Jessie Huang, who lives in New Jersey, hopes to visit China this summer but has struggled to find tickets under $2,000. She has not seen her 86-year-old father, who lives on an island off the coast of Shanghai, in seven years. “I’m just missing my family,” she said.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.A reader submitted her French mother’s recipe for tarragon-Cognac roast chicken.What to ReadIn “Calling Ukraine,” an office satire, a lost American expat takes up a job at a call center.What to Watch“Showing Up” is a gently funny portrait of a creative rivalry between two artists.TravelClimate change is making turbulence more common. Fasten your seatbelt.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Deficiency (four letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. The Times is inviting illustrators to share their work with our art directors for a portfolio review. Apply here.“The Daily” is on Tennessee’s Republican-controlled House, which has expelled two young Black Democrats.Was this newsletter useful? Send us your feedback at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      in US Politics

      ‘A son of Ireland’: how Biden’s Irish roots shape his political identity

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      It was a line guaranteed to raise a smile. “As we know, every American president is a little bit Irish on St Patrick’s Day,” Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach, observed during last month’s celebration at the White House. “But some are more Irish than others.”Joe Biden is as Irish as it gets. On Tuesday he travels to Belfast, Northern Ireland, to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the peace accord that helped end decades of deadly sectarian violence, then on to the Republic of Ireland for stops including Dublin, County Louth and County Mayo for what will feel almost like a homecoming.The visit will underscore Biden’s status as “unmistakably a son of Ireland”, as Varadkar described at last month’s celebration in Washington. America’s oldest president is sure speak of his Irish heritage, quote Irish poetry and embrace Ireland as a fundamental part of his personal and political identity.Biden’s spiritual attachment to Ireland has been a constant all his life. He introduces himself as the great-great-grandson of the Blewitts of County Mayo and the Finnegans of County Louth, “who boarded coffin ships to cross the Atlantic more than 165 years ago”. He expresses deep pride in his Irish ancestry, recently commenting: “As long as I can remember, it’s been sort of part of my soul.”Sometimes, however, it comes out wrong. The gaffe-prone president said last year: “I may be Irish but I’m not stupid.”Biden can also trace his family tree to Britain, specifically Westbourne in West Sussex and Portsmouth in Hampshire. Yet in his public persona, Britain has become a convenient foil. When, after his election victory in November 2020, a BBC journalist asked if he had “a quick word” for the British public broadcaster, Biden shot back: “The BBC? I’m Irish!”Less flippantly, Biden tends to cite the example of British rule in Ireland as a template to express empathy with persecuted minorities. Speaking in Jerusalem, Israel, last year, he said: “My background and the background of my family is Irish American, and we have a long history of – not fundamentally unlike the Palestinian people with Great Britain and their attitude toward Irish-Catholics over the years, for 400 years.”In contrast to the high emotion of the Ireland visit, the White House has announced that Biden will not attend the coronation of King Charles III next month, although First Lady Jill Biden will represent the US.Ireland, by contrast, appears to resonate with Biden through his strong sense of loyalty to both family and the Catholic church. It was also written into his childhood in Scranton, Pennsylvania.Daniel Mulhall, a former Irish ambassador to the US, said: “I’ve been there and it’s probably the most Irish place in America. I remember meeting all the Irish organisations over breakfast one morning and there were so many of them I couldn’t count them.“It’s a very traditional Irish-American community, proud of its roots connected with Ireland, proud of heritage, the kind of place where anybody growing up would definitely encounter that affinity with Ireland, that affection for Ireland that Joe Biden developed as a child.Mulhall added: “He often talks about his grandfather Finnegan, who was the son of two Irish immigrants who I suppose passed on stories about the old country to the grandson. Things you hear at your grandfather’s knee tend to live with you.“He’s very good example of that Irish-American identity, which is still strong in America despite the fact that most of the people who are Irish-American now are descended from people who came to America in the 19th century. But nonetheless, the heritage lives on.”Biden has spoken and written often about his Irish roots. In his book, Promise Me, Dad, he states: “We Irish are the only people in the world who are actually nostalgic about the future.”In another passage, he observes: “One of my colleagues in the Senate, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, once made this simple but profound observation about us Irish: ‘To fail to understand that life is going to knock you down is to fail to understand the Irishness of life.’”Evan Osnos, author of a 2020 biography of Biden, said: “To Joe Biden, in effect, being of Irish descent is all about the relationship between suffering and hope. The Irishness of life has become a kind of grand metaphor for Biden over the course of his own life, beginning when he was a kid.“The process of getting over a stutter became this fulcrum in his own self narrative and in practical terms the way that he actually got over the stutter was by memorising quotes from Yeats and [American Ralph Waldo] Emerson. That’s one of the reasons why he has this quick instinct to deploy Irish poetry.”The president frequently deploys W B Yeats’s Easter, 1916 and has quoted Seamus Heaney’s lines – “History says, don’t hope / On this side of the grave. / But then, once in a lifetime / The longed-for tidal wave / Of justice can rise up, / And hope and history rhyme,” – in at least half a dozen speeches since becoming president. He likes to quip: “They think I do it because I’m Irish. I do it because they’re the best poets.”This soft power will be on full display next week. The White House has said Biden will visit Belfast from 11 to 12 April to mark progress since the Good Friday agreement was signed a quarter of a century ago and to show US readiness to support Northern Ireland’s economic potential.In the 1980s Biden was among a group of senators who pushed for greater US diplomatic involvement to end the conflict in Northern Ireland. He recently praised the Windsor framework as an important step in maintaining the peace accord, remarking: “It’s a vital, vital step and that’s going to help ensure all the people in Northern Ireland have an opportunity to realise their full potential.”Biden will then spend 12 to 14 April in the Republic of Ireland, addressing the Irish parliament and attending a festival in County Mayo. He is guaranteed an effusive welcome, although comparisons with John F Kennedy’s famous visit to Ireland in 1963, which the young president described to aides as the best four days of his life, are perhaps less interesting than the contrasts.Brendan Boyle, a Democratic congressman from Pennsylvania and leading member of the Friends of Ireland group, who has been invited to join Biden on the trip, said: “Sixty years separate JFK’s trip in 1963 and Joe Biden’s trip next week. I don’t think any country on the planet has experienced more change in those six decades than Ireland.“My father was 13 years old when President Kennedy came to Ireland. He was growing up in a very rural part of the country, a country that was socially conservative, that at that point was only a few decades removed from winning its independence, was still experiencing unemployment north of 20%. In terms of the media landscape, it was like 600 years ago.“Now, Ireland today is one of the wealthiest countries on earth, a very forward looking, socially tolerant place, a country unlike most of the western world in which it’s a rather young population. This trip in many ways will celebrate President Biden’s connection with Ireland but also just how far Ireland has come in a relatively short period of time.” More

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      Leo Varadkar meets Biden after apparent Clinton-Lewinsky joke

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      Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, has apologised for making an apparent joke about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky, during an event in Washington on the eve of St Patrick’s Day celebrations.Varadkar’s comment on Thursday risked overshadowing his meeting with Joe Biden at the White House on Friday for the traditional handing over of a bowl of shamrock to the US president, the most important day in the Irish-American political calendar.The taoiseach departed from a prepared script on Thursday when speaking to people involved in the Washington Ireland programme, which teaches career skills to young people. Reminiscing about his stint as a US House of Representatives intern in 2000, the last year of Clinton’s presidency, Varadkar said it was a time “when some parents would have had cause for concern about what would happen to interns in Washington”.The comment was widely viewed as a reference to Clinton’s affair with Lewinsky while she was a White House intern in the mid-1990s. Hours earlier, Varadkar had shared a stage with Hillary Clinton at a separate event.A spokesperson for Varadkar apologised on his behalf.“He made an ill-judged, off-the-cuff remark which he regrets. He apologises for any offence caused to anyone concerned,” they said.The taoiseach is to meet and share platforms with the Clintons when the couple visit Ireland next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement. Biden also plans to visit.Senior Democrats this week urged Democratic Unionist party (DUP) figures visiting Washington to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland in the wake of the Windsor framework, saying it had addressed the party’s concerns over post-Brexit trading arrangements.Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, expressed hope that the Stormont institutions would be swiftly revived. Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, said the DUP should “get to the people’s business, the business of power-sharing and self-governing”.The DUP leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, rebuked Schumer, telling Sky: “I would urge the senator to read some history books. Maybe he’d learn a little bit more about what really happens and the reality of the situation.”Hillary Clinton increased the pressure on the DUP when she urged assembly members who opposed the Windsor framework to resign and allow others to revive Stormont.On Friday, Varadkar met Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris, at her residence in Washington. Varadkar’s apparent gaffe over Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky was not mentioned but the Windsor framework was.The agreement, the taoiseach said, “has the potential to restore very good relations between Ireland and the UK and to restore the relations and institutions of the Good Friday agreement” while opening a new chapter in EU-UK relations.“We’re not quite there yet,” Varadkar said. “But I think with good faith on all sides, we’ll have that and the help of our … friends here in America.”Varadkar also thanked Harris and her husband, Douglas Emhoff, for hosting him and his partner, Matthew Barrett. They had been “inspired”, he said, both as doctors and members of the LGBTQ+ community, by Harris’s advocacy for marriage equality as a California prosecutor and senator, and now as vice-president.Varadkar said: “From Stonewall [the riots in New York in 1969 that sparked the modern gay rights movement] to Sacramento to San Francisco, America has led the way when it comes to LGBTQ+ equality. I don’t think I would be here today were it not for what America did.”From there, the taoiseach went to the White House to meet Biden.Before the Oval Office meeting, the president sent out a St Patrick’s Day tweet in which he proudly introduced himself as “the great-great-grandson of the Blewitts of County Mayo and the Finnegans of County Louth who boarded a coffin ship to cross the Atlantic more than 165 years ago” and as “the proud son of Catherine Eugenia Finnegan Biden”.Coffin ships were vessels that took Irish immigrants to America during the Great Famine of the 1840s, so called, in the words of the writer Philip Hoare, “because so many of their human cargo died of disease or malnutrition en route, or shortly after arrival”.In front of the press on Friday, Biden referred to a recent meeting in San Diego with Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, saying: “I very much, very strongly supported the Windsor framework, which I know you do too.”Varadkar thanked Biden “for your help and support and understanding for our position on Brexit in recent years”, which he said “really made a difference.“And we’ve got to a good place now, I think, with the Windsor framework where we can have an agreement that lasts, which is important for Northern Ireland, and also important for British-Irish and European relations.” More

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      Revealed: how world’s biggest fossil fuel firms ‘profited in Myanmar after coup’

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      Revealed: how world’s biggest fossil fuel firms ‘profited in Myanmar after coup’Leaked tax records suggest subsidiaries of international gas field contractors continued to make millions after the coup In the two years since a murderous junta launched a coup in Myanmar, some of the world’s biggest oil and gas service companies continued to make millions of dollars from operations that have helped prop up the military regime, tax documents seen by the Guardian suggest.The Myanmar military seized power in February 2021 and according to the United Nations special rapporteur on Myanmar, it is “committing war crimes and crimes against humanity daily”. More than 2,940 people, including children, pro-democracy activists and other civilians have been killed, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.Amid this violence, leaked Myanmar tax records and other reports appear to show that US, UK and Irish oil and gas field contractors – which provide essential drilling and other services to Myanamar’s gas field operators – have continued to make millions in profit in the country after the coup.The documents were obtained by transparency non-profit Distributed Denial of Secrets and analysed by Myanmar activist group Justice For Myanmar, investigative journalism organisation Finance Uncovered and the Guardian.The documents suggest that in some cases the subsidiaries of major US gas field service firms continued working in Myanmar – even after the US state department warned in January last year there were significant risks in doing business in the country – including with state-owned entities that financially benefit the junta, such as the national oil and gas company Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE).On Tuesday the US, UK, Australia and Canada announced more Myanmar sanctions, including on the managing director and deputy managing director of MOGE. But they stopped short of sanctioning MOGE itself.Last February the European Union became the first jurisdiction to announce sanctions against MOGE itself in light of the “intensifying human rights violations in Myanmar” and the “substantive resources” MOGE provides the junta.The EU sanctions prohibit European companies from working on Myanmar’s oil and gas field projects. But the US and UK have not yet introduced similar measures and such work – which may involve direct or indirect dealings with MOGE – is not prohibited.Among the findings, the leaked tax documents show that:
      US oil services giant Halliburton’s Singapore-based subsidiary Myanmar Energy Services reported pre-tax profits of $6.3m in Myanmar in the year to September 2021, which includes eight months while the junta was in power.

      Houston-headquartered oil services company Baker Hughes branch in Yangon reported pre-tax profits of $2.64m in the country in the six months to March 2022.

      US firm Diamond Offshore Drilling reported $37m in fees to the Myanmar tax authority during the year to September 2021 and another $24.2m from then until March 2022.

      Schlumberger Logelco (Yangon Branch), the Panama-based subsidiary of the US-listed world’s largest offshore drilling company, earned revenues of $51.7m in the year to September 2021 in Myanmar and as late as September 2022 was owed $200,000 in service fees from the junta’s energy ministry.
      The services provided to Myanmar’s Asia-owned gas field operators by these companies gave vital support to MOGE, which is a major shareholder in all of the country’s most important oil and gas projects.MOGE collects taxes and royalties for the state on gas field projects, ensuring that the junta gets lucrative tax and royalty payments, as well as a vast share of profits. According to the junta’s own figures the oil and gas industry is its biggest source of foreign-currency revenue, bringing in $1.72bn in the six months to 31 March 2022 alone.Yadanar Maung, Justice For Myanmar spokesperson, called the situation “deplorable”.“Oilfield service companies in Myanmar have blood on their hands for operating in an industry that bankrolls the illegal Myanmar military junta, as it wages a campaign of terror against the people,” Maung said.“These companies have breached their international human rights responsibilities and may be complicit in the junta’s war crimes and crimes against humanity by servicing oil and gas projects that fund the junta’s atrocities.”Maung welcomed the latest sanctions but said “far more needs to be done.“So far, only the EU has sanctioned MOGE, which bankrolls the junta. We call on the US, UK, Canada and Australia to follow the EU and also sanction MOGE,” Maung said.Myanmar is one of the poorest countries in Asia but is also rich in oil and gas deposits. The country’s major projects export gas to China and Thailand, with around 20% of the gas retained for domestic use.The major gas projects in which MOGE has significant shareholdings are run by the South Korean corporation Posco International, Thailand’s PTTEP and Gulf Petroleum Myanmar, also from Thailand. Gulf Myanmar Petroleum, PTTEP and Posco were contacted for comment.Map of major oil and gas fields in MyanmarActivists argue that any role played by western gas field contractors in Myanmar’s gas and oil industry after the coup makes them complicit in the junta’s war of aggression. Some legal experts argue the contractors could face future legal issues from their activities in the country.Baker Hughes told the Guardian its contracts were signed before the coup and completed in early 2022. The company said it had not signed new contracts since the coup and had “a very limited number of personnel in the country to support critical safety and operations needs”.Halliburton, Schlumberger and Diamond Offshore Drilling did not respond to repeated requests for comment.Last January, France’s Total and US’s Chevron – which have long been criticised for their roles as gas project operators in the country – announced plans to exit Myanmar.Chevron told the Guardian that it had now sold its 41.1% interest in the Yadana Project to Et Martem Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of MTI Energy, a Canadian company.The situation is complicated by the US’s ambiguous stance on MOGE. Myanmar’s state-owned gems, pearl and timber industries have been sanctioned by the US but Washington has not yet tackled MOGE, the linchpin in the junta’s largest single source of foreign revenue.In 2021 the New York Times reported that the oil giant Chevron had led an intense lobbying effort against sanctions that would disrupt oil operations in the country. That report came after the UN’s special rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, had told Congress that MOGE was “now effectively controlled by a murderous criminal enterprise” and called on it and other state entities to be sanctioned in order to “meaningfully degrade the junta’s sources of revenue”.Last January, the state department did specifically warn of the dangers of doing business in the country and cited MOGE as particularly problematic. MOGE and other state-owned enterprises “not only generate revenue for a military regime that is responsible for lethal attacks against the people of Burma, but many of them also are subject to allegations of corruption, child and forced labor, surveillance, and other human and labor rights abuses”, it warned.But while the US has put sanctions on the State Administration Council – the junta’s ruling body which controls MOGE through the ministry of energy – it has stopped short of imposing tougher sanctions on MOGE itself. And the US commerce department’s country commercial guide for Myanmar, last updated in July 2022, describes the “dynamic” oil and gas sector as a “best prospect industry” with “significant opportunities for US investors”.The Biden administration is understood to be struggling with a desire to implement stronger sanctions while maintaining good relations with Thailand, a strategic partner, and also a major buyer of Myanmar’s natural gas.Justice for Myanmr’s Maung said the Biden administration’s contradictory approach to Myanmar “has allowed US oil and gas corporations to continue business as usual in Myanmar, enabling the junta’s international crimes”.“While the Department of State has warned that dealing with MOGE risks money laundering, furthering corruption and contributing to serious human rights violations, the US Department of Commerce is advising US companies to seek profits in the oil and gas sectors in Myanmar and to compete for MOGE tenders,” Maung said. “We call on the US to stand with the people of Myanmar by imposing sanctions on MOGE and helping to cut the flow of funds to the junta.”Pressure is mounting on the Biden administration to act. Last year, the Democratic senators Jeff Merkley, Cory Booker, Dianne Feinstein, Edward Markey and Gary Peters wrote to the US treasury urging the Biden administration to impose sanctions to help stem the junta’s brutality, especially by cutting off revenues from MOGE. “MOGE sanctions are one of the most significant actions the United States could take to degrade the junta’s ability to operate,” they wrote.In December, the US House passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which included a section outlining action on Myanmar that raised the possibility of Joe Biden imposing sanctions on MOGE but stopped short of issuing a stronger ruling.“At the end of last year, Congress made great progress in authorizing sanctions on Burma’s energy sector, which represents nearly half of the junta’s foreign currency income. The administration must use these authorities and work with regional partners to cut off the junta’s ability to fuel its brutal campaign against civilians,” Merkley told the Guardian.The European Union toughened its stance on MOGE in February 2022, expanding its sanctions against the junta, becoming the first jurisdiction to sanction MOGE itself and prohibiting the provision of technical assistance that directly or indirectly benefits the state-owned entity, with a narrow exemption for decommissioning a project.One European company, Dublin-based Gavin & Doherty Geosolutions, a specialist geotechnical engineering consultancy, secured a contract to work on Thai-owned PTTEP International’s Zawtika development project off the coast of Myanmar, according to August 2021 reports. The contract was announced before EU sanctions were imposed on MOGE but seven months after the coup. Gavin & Doherty declined repeated inquiries about the nature of the contract or whether it was still working in the country.MOGE owns a 20% of Zawtika and profits from the project flow directly to the junta.The tax documents suggest Intermoor, a subsidiary of UK-based Acteon, a subsea services company, also continued to profit from work in Myanmar until at least February 2022. The UK has issued sanctions against some individuals and entities in Myanmar. But like the US, it has so far stopped short of sanctioning MOGE and no UK sanctions prohibit working directly or indirectly with the junta-controlled entity.Filings to Myanmar’s tax authority by Diamond Offshore Drilling indicate it made repeated payments to Intermoor between October 2021 and February 2022 for work done on behalf of Posco International. Posco runs the Shwe gas project, which in 2020 Intermoor had publicly announced it was working on. MOGE has a 15% stake in Shwe, in addition to the revenue it gets from taxes and royalties.A Justice For Myanmar source, verified by the Guardian, has confirmed the presence of InterMoor personnel in Myanmar in 2021 and 2022.Neither Intermoor nor its parent company, Acteon Group responded to repeated requests to comment on this story.Despite US and UK reluctance to target MOGE, environmental lawyers claimed companies working on gas projects in Myanmar still faced legal risks from their activities.Ben Hardman, Myanmar policy and legal adviser at Earthrights, a Washington-based human rights and environmental non-profit, said: “Oil field service companies are not just working with international oil majors, they are supporting joint ventures with MOGE, a government agency that has effectively been taken hostage by the junta. When the companies submit an invoice, the junta ultimately pays a share of them and the support of these companies ensures that the junta can keep seizing revenues that flow through MOGE.“If these companies have an EU presence, they are at severe risk of breaching EU sanctions on MOGE. Companies in the US and the UK also face risks because both governments have sanctioned the junta’s State Administration Council, which controls MOGE’s management and revenues.”TopicsMyanmarMyanmar coupOil and gas companiesSouth and central AsiaUS politicsIrelandThailandnewsReuse this content More

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      Once a Figurehead of Change, Ireland’s Returning Leader Has Lots to Prove

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      In Leo Varadkar’s first stint as prime minister, he embodied for many his country’s move into modernity. But after several missteps, he now takes up the role for a second time, with the glow of optimism dimmed.When Leo Varadkar became Ireland’s prime minister in 2017, he was hailed as a fresh face in European politics, only 38 years old, his country’s first openly gay leader and the first with South Asian heritage — a personification of a rapidly modernizing state.Now he returns to office on Saturday, in a prearranged power-sharing deal, with that initial optimism dissipated, and with question marks over his judgment and leadership style.Mr. Varadkar, who trained as a doctor, was one of Europe’s youngest heads of government when he took over from Enda Kenny, then his party’s leader, who had become embroiled in a police whistle-blowing scandal. At the time, many Irish commentators viewed him as a breath of fresh air. He “comes across to the public, especially younger voters, as if he is not a politician at all,” the political columnist Stephen Collins wrote in The Irish Times in 2017.“In this anti-politician phase of Western democracy,” Mr. Collins added, “that is a crucial asset.”Much was expected of Mr. Varadkar as he climbed the ranks. The son of an immigrant — his father, who is also a doctor, is from Mumbai; his mother is an Irish nurse — Mr. Varadkar announced that he was gay in 2015 while serving as health minister. That statement, during a referendum about legalizing gay marriage, was cited by some as having contributed to the measure’s approval.Then, as prime minister, or taoiseach, Mr. Varadkar oversaw another referendum — and another cultural watershed in a country long a stronghold of Roman Catholic doctrine — this time to legalize abortion. That measure, voted on in 2018, was also approved.A crowd in Dublin reacting to the result of the referendum that liberalized the abortion law in 2018. The measure was approved while Mr. Varadkar was taoiseach.Paulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York TimesFor many, Mr. Varadkar, a conservative who had once opposed abortion and allowing gay couples to adopt, was a symbol of Ireland’s transition to a socially liberal, secular nation.But by the time Mr. Varadkar became prime minister, his party, Fine Gael, had already been in power for six years, and he could not shield it from deepening crises in housing, health and education on its watch. In the 2020 election, Fine Gael slumped to third place for the first time in its history and was forced into a coalition with a rival center-right party, Fianna Fail, to hold onto power.The coalition deal demoted Mr. Varadkar to deputy prime minister. Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail took over for the first two and a half years of the usual five-year term; now, Mr. Varadkar gets another chance.So far, his return to power has been marked by little fanfare, and there have been no announcements of major new policies, which would in any case have to be agreed upon with his coalition partners in Fianna Fail, the Green Party and a few independent lawmakers.Critics have pointed to Mr. Varadkar’s stiffness of manner and tendency to speak his mind, to the point of insensitivity, as counting against him in Ireland’s relatively conciliatory political climate.Last month, for example, Mr. Varadkar responded to reports that many young Irish people were thinking of emigrating to escape the housing and cost of living crisis by saying that they should not expect to find cheaper rents abroad.“The grass can look greener, and considering emigration is not the same as actually doing it, and many do come back,” he said in a radio interview.Traditional brick houses in Stoneybatter, a gentrified neighborhood of Dublin. The Irish government’s Central Statistics Office found that 43 percent of renters were thinking of leaving Ireland to find better and cheaper housing abroad.Paulo Nunes dos Santos for The New York TimesThose comments prompted a storm of social media posts from young Irish emigrants reporting that they had indeed found better and cheaper accommodation in major cities abroad. Critics noted that in 2021, Dublin was the most expensive city in the European Union for renting a small house or one-bedroom apartment — higher than Amsterdam, Berlin or Paris — and pointed out that rents in Ireland had increased by another 8.2 percent since then. This month, the government’s Central Statistics Office found that 43 percent of renters were thinking of leaving Ireland to find better and cheaper housing abroad.Lorcan Sirr, a housing policy lecturer at Technological University Dublin, said Mr. Varadkar’s comments portrayed him as out of touch.“The tin ear and lack of sensitivity to other people’s needs is fairly characteristic of his party,” Mr. Sirr noted. “Varadkar has had a fairly privileged housing upbringing in that he didn’t have to suffer the trials and tribulations that many young voters — now including many who would have voted Fine Gael — have to go through to find somewhere to live.”For the past two years, he has also been dogged by questions about the legality and appropriateness of his actions when, as prime minister, he leaked details from a closed negotiation with Ireland’s main doctors’ organization to an acquaintance with an interest in the talks.Without referring to anything in particular, this past week, Mr. Varadkar acknowledged his fallibility. “Everyone makes errors in judgment — you wouldn’t be human if you didn’t,” he told reporters, but he added that he was confident that he had the full support of the coalition.Whether the public is behind him is another question. At the start of this month, an opinion poll found that 43 percent would prefer Mr. Martin to remain Taoiseach. Only 34 percent wanted Mr. Varadkar to take over again. A month before, the two had been tied at 39 percent.Winning the next election, scheduled for 2025, looks to be an uphill battle for Mr. Varadkar. The agreement between his party, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail — also in long-term decline — was seen as an awkward alliance to check the growing influence of an up and coming rival for power, Sinn Fein.Mr. Varadkar, center, with Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail and Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Fein leader, at an election debate in February 2020 in Dublin.Pool photo by Niall CarsonOnce the political wing of the militant Provisional Irish Republican Army, which used violence to try to end British rule in Northern Ireland during the bloody “Troubles” of 1968 to 1998, Sinn Fein has sought to rebrand itself as a democratic force of the center-left. The party vows to solve the housing crisis by abandoning the reliance on private developers and landlords to supply properties, instead spending state money to build 100,000 new homes. That, together with promises to overhaul health and education, have won Sinn Fein considerable support.A Politico poll this month showed voter support for Sinn Fein at 34 percent, with Fine Gael at 23 percent and Fianna Fail at 18 percent. If replicated in an election, that would put the Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald in a strong position to become the first female taoiseach, and also the first from outside the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail political movements since the state was founded a century ago.After being in government in various roles for 11 years, Mr. Varadkar may no longer carry the novelty of being a political outsider, but his supporters say that he is older and wiser and has learned from his mistakes.Gary Murphy, a professor of politics at Dublin City University, said he believed that Mr. Varadkar’s main priority in his second term as prime minister would be to show he can guide his party to the electoral success that has so far eluded him.“In 2017, when he walked home in the party leadership competition, he was being hailed as a generational change,” Professor Murphy said, “but that hasn’t happened.”“He’s young, and he could still have a life outside politics,” Professor Murphy added, “but I don’t think he’ll want to go until he has shown he can do well in an election.” More

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      Northern Ireland Likely to Hold New Election After Failing to Form a Government

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      Britain’s Northern Ireland secretary is expected to announce on Friday that a new election would be held in December after six months of fruitless efforts to convene Parliament.LONDON — Voters in Northern Ireland made history in May when they turned the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, into the largest in the North. Now, they are likely to have to go back to the polls after the main pro-unionist party paralyzed the power-sharing government by refusing to take part in it.Britain’s Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, is expected to announce on Friday that a new election would be held, possibly on Dec. 15, following six months of fruitless efforts to convene the assembly at the Stormont Parliament in Belfast. The deadline for forming a government expired at 12:01 a.m. Friday.It is not the first time that Northern Ireland’s experiment in power sharing has broken down. The assembly was suspended from 2002 to 2007, and again from 2017 to 2020. This time, the prospects for a swift resolution seem bleak, with Northern Ireland caught up in a larger standoff over trade between Britain and the European Union.Sinn Fein’s victory in May was a watershed in Northern Ireland’s politics, elevating a nationalist party that many still associate with paramilitary violence to leadership in the territory. It entitled Sinn Fein to name Michelle O’Neill, its leader, to the post of first minister in the government, reflecting its status as the party with the most seats in the assembly.But on Thursday, the parties failed in a last-gasp effort to elect a speaker of the assembly, which would have cleared the way to appoint ministers to run the government. Ms. O’Neill criticized the unionists for a “failure of leadership,” after they refused to nominate ministers or a speaker.A poster for Michelle O’Neill and Sinn Fein in April in Belfast.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesPolitical analysts predicted that Sinn Fein could expand its two-seat advantage over its main rival — the Democratic Unionist Party, or D.U.P. — by drawing voters who are frustrated by the breakdown of the government and blame the D.U.P., which has refused to take part until Britain overhauls the trade arrangements for Northern Ireland.More on the Political Turmoil in BritainMaking History: Rishi Sunak is the first person of color and the first Hindu to become prime minister of Britain — a milestone for a nation that is more and more ethnically diverse but also roiled by occasional anti-immigrant fervor.A Breakthrough, With Privilege: While Mr. Sunak’s rise to prime minister is a significant moment for Britain’s Indian diaspora, his immense wealth has made him less relatable to many.Economic Challenges: Mr. Sunak already has experience steering Britain’s public finances as chancellor of the Exchequer. That won’t make tackling the current crisis any easier.Political Primaries: Are primary elections of British leaders driving Britain’s dysfunction? The rise and fall of Liz Truss offers some lessons.But the Democratic Unionists might pick up a seat or two as well by consolidating the unionist vote. These people favor the North remaining part of the United Kingdom but had split their votes between three competing unionist parties. The D.U.P.’s attacks on the trade rules, known as the Northern Ireland Protocol, have united and hardened opposition to it within the unionist population.Adding to the anger, Sinn Fein officials have said that because of the changed political landscape, the Irish Republic should have a consultative role in running Northern Ireland, along with Britain, if the deadlock over a power-sharing government cannot be broken. The British government said it was not considering “joint authority” over the North, though it is wary of a return to direct rule.While the D.U.P. is unlikely to overtake Sinn Fein, analysts said, it may shore up what had been an eroding position. That would vindicate the party’s hard-line strategy, analysts said, and give it little incentive to return to government if Britain struck a compromise with the European Union on the protocol.“Strong unionists are very united on the idea that the protocol must be scrapped,” said Katy Hayward, a professor of political sociology at Queen’s University, Belfast. “My worry is that even if the U.K. and E.U. come up with an agreement on the protocol, it will be very difficult for that agreement to satisfy the unionists.Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, on Thursday at the Stormont Parliament in Belfast.Charles McQuillan/Getty ImagesMr. Heaton-Harris, who was reappointed Northern Ireland secretary this week by Britain’s new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has said he would prefer to call a new election rather than try to delay it or pass legislation in the British Parliament.It was shaping up as an early foreign policy headache for Mr. Sunak, who has spoken of wanting to reset relations between Britain and the European Union. Tensions over trade in Northern Ireland have simmered since the Brexit referendum in 2016 and rose significantly in June after his predecessor, Liz Truss, who was foreign secretary at the time, introduced legislation that would unilaterally overturn parts of the protocol. Boris Johnson, who was then prime minister, regularly reinforced that position.Though Mr. Sunak said he was committed to getting that bill through Parliament, some analysts said they believed he would take a more pragmatic approach with Brussels, calculating that Britain cannot afford a trade war with the European Union at a time when its economy is grappling with double-digit inflation and a looming recession.The result of a painstaking negotiation between London and Brussels, the protocol was meant to account for the hybrid status of Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom but shares an open border with neighboring Ireland, a member of the European Union. To keep that border open, Mr. Johnson had accepted checks on goods flowing from mainland Britain to Northern Ireland.Unionists complain that the checks have added onerous layers of bureaucracy to trade and driven a wedge between the North and the rest of the United Kingdom. For months, Britain has tried to renegotiate the rules with European officials to make them less cumbersome. But unionists want the protocol essentially swept away, which Brussels is certain to reject on the grounds that it would threaten the single market.Belfast in April. Sinn Fein favors the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland.Andrew Testa for The New York Times“The D.U.P. and Sinn Fein should both gain seats” in the next election, said David Campbell, the chairman of the Loyalist Communities Council, which represents pro-union paramilitary groups that vehemently oppose the protocol. “Hard to tell which comes out on top. The real problem is how to resolve problems after.”For Sinn Fein, which favors the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, the paralysis confronts it with a decision: whether to give up on power sharing, which was enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement that ended decades of sectarian violence, and focus its energies on uniting North and South.“If the sense is the D.U.P. is against the Good Friday Agreement,” Professor Hayward said, “there is a certain rationale for the Sinn Fein to go for their alternative.” More

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      Sinn Fein Poised to Make Historic Gains in Northern Ireland Elections

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      But Sinn Fein, which is leading in polls ahead of next week’s elections, hasn’t focused its campaign on unification with Ireland.CARRICKFERGUS, Northern Ireland — The sun was setting over the tidy, red brick homes in a Protestant neighborhood outside Belfast when two candidates for Northern Ireland’s legislature came to knock on doors on a recent evening. It might as well have been setting on the pro-unionist dreams of the residents.“It’s changed times now,” said Brian Gow, 69, as he contemplated the growing odds that the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Fein, would win the most seats in parliamentary elections on Thursday.That would represent an extraordinary coming-of-age for a political party that many outside Ireland still associate with years of paramilitary violence. It would also be a momentous shift in Northern Ireland, one that could upend the power-sharing arrangements that have kept a fragile peace for two decades.Yet for all of the freighted symbolism, Mr. Gow and his wife, Alison, greeted the prospect of a Sinn Fein victory with relative equanimity.“There’s no way I would vote Sinn Fein,” said Mrs. Gow, 66, who, like her husband, is a die-hard supporter of the Democratic Unionist Party, which favors Northern Ireland’s current status as part of the United Kingdom. “But if they’re committed to serving everyone equally, people will have to live with it.”Mary Lou McDonald, the president of Sinn Fein, center left, talking to voters and stall owners at St. George’s Market during a campaign stop this week in Belfast.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesBrian Gow talking to Danny Donnelly, a candidate for the Alliance Party, a centrist alternative to Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists, this week in Carrickfergus.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesThat would be music to the ears of Sinn Fein’s leaders. In polls this past week, they held a lead of two to six percentage points over the D.U.P., running a campaign that emphasizes kitchen-table concerns like the high cost of living and the need for better health care — and that plays down the party’s ideological commitment to Irish unification, a legacy of its ties to the Irish Republican Army.Irish unification, party leaders say, is an over-the-horizon issue, over which Sinn Fein has limited control. It is up to the British government to call a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should stay part of the United Kingdom or join the Republic of Ireland.The only immediate effect of a Sinn Fein victory would be the right to name the first minister in the next government. The unionists, who have splintered into three parties, could still end up with the largest bloc of votes, according to political analysts.“I hope that political unionism, when they meet this democratic test next week, will accept the vote from the people, no matter what that is,” said John Finucane, a Sinn Fein member of the British Parliament who is running the party’s campaign. “To paint this in an us-versus-them context, post election, is potentially dangerous.”A lawyer and rugby player, Mr. Finucane, 42, knows the horrors of Northern Ireland’s past firsthand. When he was 8, he watched from under a table while masked gunmen killed his father, Pat Finucane, a prominent Catholic lawyer. The murder, in which loyalist paramilitaries colluded with British security forces, was one of the most notorious of the 30 years of violence known as the Troubles.“I hope that political unionism, when they meet this democratic test next week, will accept the vote from the people, no matter what that is,” said John Finucane, a Sinn Fein member of the British Parliament.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesWalking near a “peace wall” that separates Catholic and Protestant neighborhoods in Belfast.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesPat Finucane’s photograph still hangs over his son’s desk — a poignant reminder of why a Sinn Fein victory would mean more than just better health care. In the United States, where many in the Irish diaspora embrace the nationalist cause, the party’s supporters frame the stakes more dramatically.Before St. Patrick’s Day, they took out ads in The New York Times and other newspapers that promised “Irish unity in our time” and called on the Irish government to “plan, prepare and advocate for Irish unity, as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement,” the 1998 peace accord that ended sectarian violence in the North.“If Sinn Fein are the largest party, the focus will immediately turn to their calls for a border poll” to determine whether a majority of people favor Irish unity, said Gordon Lyons, a Democratic Unionist who represents Carrickfergus. “What people want to avoid is the division, the arguments, and the rancor that would come from that.”But it is the Democratic Unionists who are laying the groundwork for the rancor. They have warned they will refuse to take part in a government with a Sinn Fein first minister. The party pulled its own first minister from the government in February in a dispute over the North’s trade status since Brexit, which is governed by a legal construct known as the Northern Ireland Protocol.Unionists complain that the protocol, which requires border checks on goods passing from mainland Britain to Northern Ireland, has driven a wedge between the North and the rest of the United Kingdom. They are pressuring Prime Minister Boris Johnson to overhaul the arrangement, which he negotiated with the European Union.Graffiti next to a supermarket pressing shoppers not to buy goods from the European Union or Ireland, but from Britain.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesUnion Jack bunting and flags celebrating Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee, which will be celebrated in June in Britain, adorned a shop this month on Sandy Row in Belfast.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesMr. Johnson seems poised to do so. His government is readying legislation, which could be introduced days after the election, that would throw out parts of the protocol. Critics warn it could prompt a clash with Brussels and jeopardize the hard-won peace of the Good Friday Agreement.But public opinion polls suggest the protocol is not a high priority for most voters in Northern Ireland, even many unionists. Some economists contend that the North’s hybrid trade status is an advantage, giving it dual access to markets in mainland Britain and the European Union.The issue did not come up much on a recent evening of canvassing by two candidates for the Alliance Party, which presents itself as a centrist alternative to Sinn Fein and the D.U.P. “People see it as the parties fighting over flags and the border, not the bread-and-butter issues that affect people’s everyday lives,” said one of them, Danny Donnelly.The D.U.P., opponents say, is exploiting the protocol — despite its numbingly complicated details — particularly in loyalist strongholds, where posters warn that residents will “NEVER accept a border in the Irish Sea!”“There’s no way you can tell me that a kid with a petrol bomb in his hand is aggrieved at the finer points of an international trade agreement between the E.U. and the British government,” Mr. Finucane said, referring to fiery clashes last year between young protesters and the police in Belfast.Still, even if the protocol has little tangible effect on daily lives, it does carry symbolic weight for those who have felt cast adrift from Britain since Brexit. Though Protestants remain a bare plurality of the population in the North, the Catholic population is growing faster and is poised to overtake them.“What people want to avoid is the division, the arguments, and the rancor that would come from” calls for a border poll, said Gordon Lyons, a Democratic Unionist.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesA Catholic neighborhood around Falls Road in Belfast.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesWhile the connection between religion and national identification is not automatic — some Northern Ireland Catholics view themselves as British, not Irish — it has added to the belief among unionists that the North and South will inevitably move closer together, and that their links to London will inevitably fray.“We’re still part of the U.K.,” Mr. Gow said, “but we’re not being treated that way.”For that, he blames the D.U.P. rather than Sinn Fein. The party signed off on the deal that Mr. Johnson struck with Brussels and now wants to unravel. Then it pulled out of the government, which he viewed as a political stunt that betrayed its 50-year history as a responsible voice for unionists in Belfast and London.The divisions within the party, which also faces a challenge from a right-wing party, the Traditionalist Unionist Voice, are so deep that some say the entire unionist movement may need a reset.“There is a stream of thought in unionism that maybe everything needs to crash and burn before we can get a proper new unionist movement that unites everybody,” said David Campbell, the chairman of the Loyalist Communities Council, which represents a group of pro-union paramilitary groups.“There is a stream of thought in unionism that maybe everything needs to crash and burn before we can get a proper new unionist movement that unites everybody,” said David Campbell, chairman of the Loyalist Communities Council.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesA view of Belfast from Black Mountain, which overlooks the city.Andrew Testa for The New York TimesMr. Lyons pointed out that the D.U.P. had managed to get the British government to commit to overhauling the protocol. He predicted that unionist voters — even those demoralized by Brexit — would return to the fold rather than risk letting Sinn Fein seize the mantle of the largest party.Whatever the result, history has moved on around Belfast. Kevin Mallon, 40, a shopkeeper on the bustling Falls Road, a Catholic stronghold, said nationalists were more interested in economic prosperity than in uniting with the South, even if that idea still holds atavistic appeal.Thomas Knox, 52, a house painter and decorator who is Catholic, nursed a pint in the Royal British Legion, a bar in the nearby town of Larne once frequented by British police and soldiers. A decade ago, he said, he would not have felt comfortable walking into the place.“Those days are long gone,” Mr. Knox said.Catholics and Protestants drinking together at the Station pub in the town of Larne.Andrew Testa for The New York Times More