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      Iran’s Options for Retaliation Risk Escalating Middle East Crisis

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      The killing of Hamas’s political leader in Tehran was a humiliating security failure for the Iranian government.Most new Iranian presidents have months to settle into the decades-old cadence of gradual nuclear escalation, attacks against adversaries and, episodically, secret talks with the West to relieve sanctions.President Masoud Pezeshkian had 10 hours.That was the elapsed time between his swearing-in and the explosion inside an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps guesthouse, at 2 a.m. in Tehran, that killed Ismail Haniyeh, the longtime political leader of Hamas. Mr. Haniyeh had not only attended the swearing-in, but had also been embraced by the new president and met that day with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, making the assassination a particularly brazen act.Now Mr. Pezeshkian — along with Ayatollah Khamenei and top military generals — will be immersed in critical choices that may determine whether war breaks out between two of the Mideast’s most potent militaries. He spent his first day in office in national security meetings. The final decision on how to retaliate rests with Mr. Khamenei and on Wednesday he where ordered Iranian forces to strike Israel directly for what appeared to be its role in killing Mr. Haniyeh.But how that retaliation unfolds makes a difference. If Iran launches direct missile attacks, as it attempted for the first time in 45 years in April, the cycle of strike and counterstrike could easily escalate. If Hezbollah, its closest ally in the region, steps up attacks on Israel’s north or the Houthis expand their attacks in the Red Sea, the war could expand to Lebanon, or involve the need for American naval forces to keep the sea lanes open.Mourners for Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s longtime political leader, in Tehran on Wednesday.Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesBehind all of those options is perhaps the riskiest choice of all: whether Iran decides to take the final step toward building an actual nuclear weapon. For decades it has walked right up to the line, producing nuclear fuel and in recent years enriching it to near bomb-grade levels. But American intelligence assessments say the country has always stopped short of an actual weapon, a decision Iranian leaders have publicly been reconsidering in recent months.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Israel’s Strike on Iran: A Limited Attack but a Potentially Big Signal

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      Israel hit a strategic city with carefully measured force, but made the point that it could strike at a center of Iran’s nuclear program.For more than a decade, Israel has rehearsed, time and again, bombing and missile campaigns that would take out Iran’s nuclear production capability, much of it based around the city of Isfahan and the Natanz nuclear enrichment complex 75 miles to the north.That is not what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet chose to do in the predawn hours of Friday, and in interviews, analysts and nuclear experts said the decision was telling.So was the silence that followed. Israel said almost nothing about the limited strike, which appeared to do little damage in Iran. U.S. officials noted that the Iranian decision to downplay the explosions in Isfahan — and the suggestions by Iranian officials that Israel may not have been responsible — was a clear effort by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to avoid another round of escalation.Inside the White House, officials asked the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence agencies to stay quiet about the operation, hoping to ease Iran’s efforts to calm the tensions in the region.But in interviews, officials quickly added they worried that relations between Israel and Iran were now in a very different place than they had been just a week ago. The taboo against direct strikes on each other’s territory was now gone. If there is another round — a conflict over Iran’s nuclear advances, or another strike by Israel on Iranian military officers — both sides might feel more free to launch directly at the other.Mr. Netanyahu was under competing pressures: President Biden was urging him to “take the win” after a largely ineffective aerial barrage launched by Iran last week, while hard-liners in Israel were urging him to strike back hard to re-establish deterrence after the first direct effort to strike Israel from Iranian territory in the 45 years since the Iranian revolution.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Shadow War Between Iran and Israel: A Timeline

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      For decades, Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war across the Middle East, trading attacks by land, sea, air and in cyberspace. A recent round of strikes — mainly an aerial barrage by Iran against Israel last weekend — has brought the conflict more clearly into the open and raised fears of a broader war.A retaliatory Israeli strike on an Iranian air base on Friday, however, appeared limited in scope, and analysts said it suggested an effort to pull back from the dangerous cycle and potentially move the war back into the shadows.Here is a recent history of the conflict:August 2019: An Israeli airstrike killed two Iranian-trained militants in Syria, a drone set off a blast near a Hezbollah office in Lebanon and an airstrike in Qaim, Iraq, killed a commander of an Iran-backed Iraqi militia. Israel accused Iran at the time of trying to establish an overland arms-supply line through Iraq and northern Syria to Lebanon, and analysts said the strikes were aimed at stopping Iran and signaling to its proxies that Israel would not tolerate a fleet of smart missiles on its borders.January 2020: Israel greeted with satisfaction the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of the foreign-facing arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in an American drone strike in Baghdad.Iran hit back by attacking two bases in Iraq that housed American troops with a barrage of missiles, wounding about 100 U.S. military personnel.2021-22: In July 2021, an oil tanker managed by an Israeli-owned shipping company was attacked off the coast of Oman, killing two crew members, according to the company and three Israeli officials. Two of the officials said that the attack appeared to have been carried out by Iranian drones.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. and Allies Penalize Iran for Striking Israel, and Try to Avert War

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      While imposing sanctions on Iran, U.S. and European governments are urging restraint amid fears of a cycle of escalation as Israel weighs retaliation for an Iranian attack.The United States and European allies joined together on Thursday to impose new sanctions on Iranian military leaders and weapon makers, seeking to punish Iran for its missile and drone attack on Israel last weekend, while imploring Israel not to retaliate so strongly as to risk a wider war.White House officials said the sanctions targeted leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s Defense Ministry and the Iranian government’s missile and drone programs. The sanctions also seek to block exports by Iran’s steel industry that bring Tehran billions of dollars in revenue, they said.“I’ve directed my team, including the Department of the Treasury, to continue to impose sanctions that further degrade Iran’s military industries,” President Biden said in a statement. “Let it be clear to all those who enable or support Iran’s attacks: The United States is committed to Israel’s security.”Britain said it had imposed sanctions on seven people and six entities linked to Iran’s regional military activity and its attack on Israel, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a “reckless act and a dangerous escalation.”“These sanctions — announced with the U.S. — show we unequivocally condemn this behavior, and they will further limit Iran’s ability to destabilize the region,” Mr. Sunak said in a statement.“Let it be clear to all those who enable or support Iran’s attacks: The United States is committed to Israel’s security,” President Biden said in a statement on Thursday.Al Drago for The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Iran Seizes Israel-Linked Container Ship

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      Iranian forces seized a container ship with links to Israel in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, as leaders in the Middle East and beyond watched for a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israel.MSC, a major shipping company, said on Saturday that the MSC Aries, which is registered in Portugal, had been boarded by “Iranian authorities” via helicopter as it passed the Strait of Hormuz.A video shared by Iranian state media showed a military helicopter hovering above what appeared to be the stern of the ship, with at least two soldiers descending a rope onto the deck.The soldiers were part of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, according to IRNA, the state news agency. Though it is operated by MSC, the 1,200-foot cargo vessel belongs to an affiliate of Zodiac Maritime, which is part of the Zodiac Group, owned by the Israel-born billionaire Eyal Ofer, making it a possible target for Iranian retaliation. Tehran has vowed a retaliatory strike after blaming Israel for an attack on an Iranian embassy building in Syria that killed 12 people, among them top military generals.Israel Katz, Israel’s foreign affairs minister, confirmed the seizure on social media and said Iran’s leadership was “a criminal regime that supports Hamas’ crimes and is now conducting a pirate operation in violation of international law.”Six months after the Hamas attack on Israel that started the war in Gaza, the seizure comes amid fears of a wider conflict involving Iran directly. Iran is a backer of Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but has so far stayed clear of direct involvement. On Friday, President Biden said that he expected Iran to launch a retaliatory attack “sooner than later,” and reiterated that the United States remained committed to the defense of Israel.It was not immediately clear if the seizure of the ship was part of Iran’s promised response to the attack in Syria, but it was not the first time Iran had directly seized a commercial vessel. In January, Iran’s navy seized a tanker loaded with oil off the coast of Oman. In that seizure, soldiers also descended from a hovering helicopter.Before the war in Gaza, the United States said that Iran had “harassed, attacked or interfered” with more than a dozen internationally flagged merchant ships in recent years.For their part, the Houthis have disrupted a significant part of the world’s shipping by attacking dozens of vessels heading to or from the Suez Canal.The MSC Aries had 25 crew members on board, according to its operator. More

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      A Timeline of Iran and Israel’s Shadow War Across the Middle East

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      The regional rivals have for decades targeted each other’s interests, including with a recent strike in Syria that killed three Iranian commanders. Here are some other notable flash points.For decades, Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war across the Middle East, trading attacks by land, sea, air and in cyberspace.Iran has largely used foreign proxies to strike Israeli interests, while targeted assassinations of Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists have been a key part of Israel’s strategy.Israel’s strike in the Syrian capital, Damascus, that killed three top Iranian commanders on Monday was the most brazen attack in years, raising fears of a wider confrontation. That would be particularly dangerous in a region already in turmoil on multiple fronts, including Israel’s war in Gaza, cross-border skirmishes between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia against Western interests in the Red Sea. An escalation between Israel and Iran would also risk further entangling the United States, given the presence of American troops in the region.Here are some key moments in the yearslong conflict.January 2020: A major targetThe assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, commander of the foreign-facing arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in an American drone strike in Baghdad was greeted with satisfaction in Israel.Crowds at the funeral for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in Tehran in 2020.Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesIran hit back by attacking two bases in Iraq that housed American troops with a barrage of missiles, injuring about 100 U.S. military personnel.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      U.S. Hits Back at Iran With Sanctions, Criminal Charges and Airstrikes

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      In the hours before the United States carried out strikes against Iran-backed militants on Friday, Washington hit Tehran with more familiar weapons: sanctions and criminal charges.The Biden administration imposed sanctions on officers and officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s premier military force, for threatening the integrity of water utilities and for helping manufacture Iranian drones. And it unsealed charges against nine people for selling oil to finance the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.The timing seemed designed to pressure the Revolutionary Guards and its most elite unit, the Quds Force, at a moment of extraordinary tension in the Middle East. Although the sanctions have been brewing for some time and the charges were filed earlier under seal, the region has been in turmoil for months.The actions are part of a coordinated governmentwide effort to disrupt Iran’s efforts to use illicit oil sales to fund terrorism, and to push back on the country’s increasingly capable offensive cyberoperations. In the 15 years since the United States mounted a major cyberattack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the country has trained a generation of hackers and struck back at Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States, among others. Two American officials said the United States conducted cyberoperations against Iranian targets on Friday but declined to provide details.The effects of sanctions and indictments are hard to measure. Few Iranian officers or officials keep assets in Western banks or travel to the United States, meaning the sanctions may have little practical effect. While the indictments and sanctions have a psychological element, demonstrating to Iranians and their business associates around the world that Western intelligence agencies are often tracking their movements and their transactions, actual arrests and trials are infrequent.“The reason that we bring these cases is, we know that the money Iran obtains from the illicit sale of oil is used to fund its malign activities around the world,” Matthew G. Olsen, who heads the national security division of the Justice Department, said on Friday. “The threats posed by Iran and the destabilizing effects of its actions have only come into sharper relief since the attacks of Oct. 7,” the day of the Hamas attack on Israel that killed roughly 1,200 people.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Says U.S. Response to Deadly Drone Strike in Jordan Has Been Decided

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      President Biden said on Tuesday that he had decided on a U.S. response to the drone attack on a remote outpost in Jordan on Sunday that killed three American soldiers and injured more than 40 others, leaving unstated what that decision was. Asked by reporters outside the White House whether he had decided on a response to the lethal attack, Mr. Biden said, “Yes” but declined to provide further details.John F. Kirby, a National Security Council spokesman, refused to elaborate on Mr. Biden’s remarks other than to say it was “very possible” that the United States would carry out “a tiered approach” — “not just a single action, but potentially multiple actions” over a period of time. Biden administration officials have blamed an explosives-laden drone, most likely launched by an Iran-backed militia in Iraq, for the attack — the most deadly of the more than 160 militia attacks the Pentagon says U.S. forces have come under in the region since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza nearly four months ago. Mr. Biden has vowed to retaliate and has met twice this week with his national security aides to discuss targets in Syria, Iraq and Iran. He could order strikes on Iran’s proxy forces, a major escalation of the whack-a-mole attacks the United States has conducted in recent weeks in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Or Mr. Biden could opt to attack the Iranian suppliers of drones and missiles, perhaps including inside Iranian territory, which poses a much higher risk. His first targets could well be members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, many of whom are based in Syria and Iraq, officials said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More