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      In Israeli Election, a Chance for Arabs to Gain Influence, or Lose It

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyIn Israeli Election, a Chance for Arabs to Gain Influence, or Lose ItJewish politicians, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are courting Arab Israeli voters, and some Arab politicians are prepared to work with them.Mansour Abbas, an Islamist leader hoping to join the next Israeli government, campaigns in Daburiyya, an Arab village in northern Israel.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesPatrick Kingsley and Feb. 21, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ETKAFR KANNA, Israel — Mansour Abbas, a conservative Muslim, is an unlikely political partner for the leaders of the Jewish state.He is a proponent of political Islam. He heads an Arab party descended from the same religious stream that spawned the militant Hamas movement. And for most of his political life, he never considered supporting the right-leaning parties that have led Israel for most of the past four decades.Yet if Mr. Abbas has his way, he could help decide the next Israeli prime minister after next month’s general election, even if it means returning a right-wing alliance to power. Tired of the peripheral role traditionally played by Israel’s Arab parties, he hopes his small Islamist group, Raam, will hold the balance of power after the election and prove an unavoidable partner for any Jewish leader seeking to form a coalition.“We can work with anyone,” Mr. Abbas said in an interview on the campaign trail in Kafr Kanna, a small Arab town in northern Israel on the site where the Christian Bible says Jesus turned water into wine. In the past, “Arab politicians have been onlookers in the political process in Israel,” he said. Now, he added, “Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics.”Mr. Abbas’s shift is part of a wider transformation occurring within the Arab political world in Israel.Accelerated by the election campaign, two trends are converging: On the one hand, Arab politicians and voters increasingly believe that to improve the lives of Arabs in Israel, they need to seek power within the system instead of exerting pressure from the outside. Separately, mainstream Israeli parties are realizing they need to attract Arab voters to win a very close election — and some are willing to work with Arab parties as potential coalition partners.Both trends are born more of political pragmatism than dogma. And while the moment has the potential to give Arab voters real power, it could backfire: Mr. Abbas’s actions will split the Arab vote, as will the overtures from Jewish-led parties, and both factors might lower the numbers of Arab lawmakers in the next Parliament.Campaign billboards for Balad, a left-wing Arab party, attacking Mr. Netanyahu. The one on the left says, “Out of tune.”Credit…Ammar Awad/ReutersBut after a strong showing in the last election, in which Arab parties won a record 15 seats, becoming the third-largest party in the 120-seat Parliament, and were still locked out of the governing coalition, some are looking for other options.“After more than a decade with Netanyahu in power, some Arab politicians have put forward a new approach: If you can’t beat him, join him,” said Mohammad Magadli, a well-known Arab television host. “This approach is bold, but it is also very dangerous.”Palestinian citizens of Israel form more than a fifth of the Israeli population. Since the founding of the state in 1948, they have always sent a handful of Arab lawmakers to Parliament. But those lawmakers have always struggled to make an impact.Jewish leaders have not seen Arab parties as acceptable coalition partners — some on the right vilifying them as enemies of the state and seeking the suspension of Arab lawmakers from Parliament. For their part, Arab parties have generally been more comfortable in opposition, lending infrequent support only to center-left parties whose influence has waned since the start of the century.In some ways, this dynamic worsened in recent years. In 2015, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cited the threat of relatively high Arab turnout — “Arab voters are streaming in huge quantities to the polling stations,” he warned on Election Day — to scare his base into voting. In 2018, his government passed new legislation that downgraded the status of Arabic and formally described Israel as the nation-state of only the Jewish people. And in 2020, even his centrist rival, Benny Gantz, refused to form a government based on the support of Arab parties.But a year later, as Israel heads to its fourth election in two years of political deadlock, this paradigm is rapidly shifting.Mr. Netanyahu is now vigorously courting the Arab electorate. Following his lead, Yair Lapid, a centrist contender for the premiership, said he could form a coalition with Arab lawmakers, despite disparaging them earlier in his career. Two left-wing parties have promised to work with an alliance of Arab lawmakers to advance Arab interests.Polling suggests a majority of Palestinian citizens of Israel want their lawmakers to play a role in government. Mr. Abbas says Arab politicians should win influence by supporting parties that promise to improve Arab society. Another prominent Arab politician, Ali Salam, the mayor of Nazareth, Israel’s largest Arab city, has expressed support for Mr. Netanyahu, arguing that despite his past comments, the prime minister is sincere about improving Arab lives.Arab men in Umm al Fahm praying at a protest against increasing crime and violence in Arab communities.  Credit…Ahmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“In the Israeli political system, it used to be a sin to collaborate with Arab parties or even Arab voters,” said Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known columnists. But Mr. Netanyahu has suddenly made Arabs “a legitimate partner to any political maneuver.”“In a way he opened a box that, I hope, cannot be closed from now on,” Mr. Barnea added.Mr. Netanyahu’s transition has been among the most remarkable. He has pledged greater resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods. And he has begun calling himself “Yair’s father” — a reference to his son, Yair, that also riffs affectionately on the Arab practice of referring to someone as the parent of their firstborn child.In a watershed moment in January, he announced a “new era” for Arab Israelis at a rally in Nazareth and made a qualified apology for his past comments about Arab voters. “I apologized then and I apologize today as well,” he said, before adding that critics had “twisted my words.”Critics say Mr. Netanyahu is courting Arab voters because he needs them to win, not because he sincerely cares about them. This month he also agreed to include within his next coalition a far-right party whose leader wants to disqualify many Arabs from running for Parliament. And he has ruled out forming a government that relies on Mr. Abbas’s support.Next month’s election is expected to be as close as each of the previous three.Mr. Netanyahu is currently on trial for corruption charges, and if he stays in power he could pursue laws that insulate him from prosecution.“What Netanyahu cares about is Netanyahu,” said Afif Abu Much, a prominent commentator on Arab politics in Israel.Courting Arab voters, Mr. Netanyahu has pledged greater resources for Arab communities and to fight endemic crime in Arab neighborhoods.Credit…Pool photo by Reuben CastroLikewise, Arab politicians and voters have not shed all their discomfort with Zionism and Israeli policies in the occupied territories. But there is a growing realization that problems the Arab community faces — gang violence, poverty and discrimination in access to housing and land — will not be solved without Arab politicians shaping policy at the highest level.“I want different results so I need to change the approach,” Mr. Abbas said. “The crises in Arab society reached a boiling point.”Yet Mr. Abbas’s plan could easily fail and undercut what little influence Arab citizens currently have.To run on his new platform, Mr. Abbas had to withdraw from an alliance of Arab parties, the Joint List, whose remaining members are unconvinced about working with the Israeli right. And this split could dilute the collective power of Arab lawmakers.Support for Mr. Abbas’s party currently hovers near the threshold of 3.25 percent that parties need to secure entry to Parliament. Even if his party scrapes above the line, there is no guarantee that any contender for the premiership will need or seek the party’s support to secure the 61 seats necessary to form a coalition.“Arabs are looking for a real role in Israeli politics,” Mr. Abbas says.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesMr. Netanyahu, despite his previous incitement against Arabs, could also draw Arab voters away from Arab parties, reducing their influence. Still more might stay home, disillusioned by the divisions within the Arab parties and their inability to achieve meaningful change, or to boycott a state whose authority they reject.“I don’t believe in any of them, or trust any of them,” said Siham Ighbariya, a 40-year-old homemaker. She rose to prominence through her quest to achieve justice for her husband and son, who were murdered at home in 2012 by an unknown killer.“I’ve dealt with all of them,” Ms. Ighbariya said of the Arab political class. “And nothing has happened.”For some Palestinians, participation in Israel’s government is a betrayal of the Palestinian cause — a criticism Mr. Abbas understands. “I have this deep personal conflict inside of me,” he acknowledged. “We have been engaged in a conflict for 100 years, a bloody and difficult conflict.”But it was time to move on, he added. “You need to be able to look to the future, and to build a better future for everyone, both Arabs and Jews.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      How Alan Dershowitz Became a Force in Clemency Grants

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Trump ImpeachmentLatest UpdatesWhere Each Senator StandsTimelineHow the House VotedHow the Trial Will UnfoldAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUsing Connections to Trump, Dershowitz Became Force in Clemency GrantsThe lawyer Alan M. Dershowitz, who represented the former president in his first impeachment trial, used his access for a wide array of clients as they sought pardons or commutations.Alan M. Dershowitz had substantial influence with the White House as President Donald J. Trump decided who should benefit from his pardon powers.Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York TimesKenneth P. Vogel and Feb. 8, 2021Updated 7:30 p.m. ETWASHINGTON — By the time George Nader pleaded guilty last year to possessing child pornography and sex trafficking a minor, his once strong alliances in President Donald J. Trump’s inner circle had been eroded by his cooperation with the special counsel’s investigation into Mr. Trump’s team and its connections to Russia.So as Mr. Nader sought to fight the charges and reduce his potential prison time, he turned to a lawyer with a deep reservoir of good will with the president and a penchant for taking unpopular, headline-grabbing cases: Alan M. Dershowitz.Mr. Dershowitz told Mr. Nader’s allies that he had reached out to an official in the Trump administration and one in the Israeli government to try to assess whether they would support a plan for Mr. Nader to be freed from United States custody in order to resume a behind-the-scenes role in Middle East peace talks, and whether Mr. Trump might consider commuting his 10-year sentence.Mr. Dershowitz helped craft a proposal — which Mr. Nader’s allies believed he was floating at the White House in the final days of the Trump presidency — for Mr. Nader to immediately “self-deport” after his release from a Virginia jail. Under the plan, Mr. Nader would board a private plane provided by the United Arab Emirates to return to the Gulf state, where he holds citizenship and has served as a close adviser to the powerful crown prince.Given the nature of Mr. Nader’s crimes and his cooperation with the Russia investigation, his bid for clemency was a long shot that did not work out. But Mr. Dershowitz’s willingness to pull a range of levers to try to free him shows why he emerged as a highly sought-after and often influential intermediary as Mr. Trump decided who would benefit from his pardon powers.Many of Mr. Dershowitz’s clients got what they wanted before Mr. Trump left office, an examination by The New York Times found. The lawyer played a role in at least 12 clemency grants, including two pardons, which wipe out convictions, and 10 commutations, which reduce prison sentences, while also helping to win a temporary reprieve from sanctions for an Israeli mining billionaire.His role highlighted how Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to governing created opportunities for allies like Mr. Dershowitz — an 82-year-old self-described “liberal Democrat” who defended the president on television and in his first impeachment trial — to use the perception that they were gatekeepers to cash in, raise their profiles, help their clients or pursue their own agendas.Mr. Dershowitz received dozens of phone calls from people seeking to enlist him in clemency efforts. The cases in which he did assist came through family members of convicts, defense lawyers enlisting him because they thought he could help their court cases as well as their clemency pushes and Orthodox Jewish prisoners’ groups with which he has long worked.In a series of interviews, Mr. Dershowitz — who in a career spanning more than half a century has represented a roster of tabloid-magnet clients accused of heinous acts, including O.J. Simpson and Jeffrey Epstein — cast his defense of Mr. Trump and his clemency efforts as a natural extension of his work defending individual rights against a justice system that could be harsh and unfair. “I’m just not a fixer or an influence peddler,” he said.Mr. Dershowitz said his efforts on behalf of Mr. Nader reflected “a multifaceted approach to these problems. So I don’t separate out diplomacy, legality, courts, executive, Justice Department — they’re all part of what I do.”He said that “the idea that I would ever, ever ingratiate myself to a president in order to be able to advertise myself as a person that could get commutations is just totally false and defamatory.”Among those Mr. Dershowitz sought to help was George Nader, a figure in the special counsel’s Russia investigation who pleaded guilty to possessing child pornography and sex trafficking a minor.Credit…C-SPAN, via Associated PressHe acknowledged, though, that his relationship with Mr. Trump increased interest in his services, and potentially his effectiveness.“Of course I’m not surprised that people would call me because they thought that the president thought well of me,” Mr. Dershowitz said. “If somebody is seeking a pardon from Clinton, you’re not going to go to somebody who is a friend of Jerry Falwell. You’re going to go to somebody who is a Democrat. That’s the way the system works.”He said he had agonized over cases in which he had failed to persuade Mr. Trump, including that of a federal death row inmate he had represented who was executed in December.Still, Mr. Dershowitz had an outsize influence over how Mr. Trump deployed one of the most profound unilateral powers of the presidency, including:Commutations to three people on whose behalf he personally lobbied Mr. Trump after working on their cases with Jewish prisoners’ rights groups. They included two New York real estate investors who had been convicted of defrauding more than 250 investors out of $23 million and a former executive at a kosher meatpacking plant who was convicted in 2009 of bank fraud.Commutations to several people who received long sentences at trial after turning down shorter sentences in plea deals offered by prosecutors, an outcome known as the trial penalty, against which Mr. Dershowitz has long crusaded. A commutation for a New Jersey man who was sentenced in 2013 to 24 years in prison for charges related to a Ponzi-style real estate scheme that caused $200 million in losses. Pardons to two conservative political figures, the author Dinesh D’Souza and the former vice-presidential aide I. Lewis Libby Jr., and a commutation to the former Illinois governor Rod R. Blagojevich. Mr. Dershowitz did not work on their cases, but he recommended clemency grants when Mr. Trump asked his opinion.It is difficult to determine how much money the work brought Mr. Dershowitz.Mr. Dershowitz, an emeritus professor at Harvard Law School who described himself as semiretired, said more than half of his clemency work was pro bono, and most of it was done on behalf of pre-existing clients. When he was paid, it was at an hourly rate in line with the fees charged by senior partners at law firms, Mr. Dershowitz said.In one case, he was paid by the family of Jonathan Braun, whose 10-year sentence for drug smuggling was commuted by Mr. Trump in his final hours in office. But after The Times reported that Mr. Braun had a history of violence and threatening people, Mr. Dershowitz said he donated the fees to charity.Mr. Dershowitz emerged as a favorite of Mr. Trump’s after he publicly criticized the Russia investigation.Credit…Pete Marovich for The New York TimesBut Mr. Dershowitz — who volunteered examples of Mr. Trump seeking his advice while in the next breath protesting that he was “not a Trump supporter” and had no more influence with Mr. Trump than with past presidents — obtained something that his defenders and detractors alike described as especially important to him: renewed political relevance and an increased reputation as a power player, particularly in the Jewish community.Mr. Dershowitz emerged as a favorite of Mr. Trump from his early days in office as a result of his criticism of the investigation being carried out by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III.Mr. Dershowitz, an ardent supporter of Israel, was invited to the White House in 2017 for two days of private talks about a Middle East peace plan being assembled by Mr. Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and other officials.Mr. Dershowitz was invited back to the White House last year, when Mr. Trump unveiled the peace plan, and for a Hanukkah party in 2019 where Mr. Trump signed an executive order Mr. Dershowitz had helped draft targeting anti-Semitism on college campuses.The week after the Hanukkah party in 2019, Mr. Dershowitz attended a Christmas Eve dinner at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort, where he said Mr. Trump lobbied him to join his impeachment legal defense team. Mr. Dershowitz said he decided to join as a matter of principle and noted that he had also consulted with President Bill Clinton’s legal team during his impeachment.Mr. Dershowitz acknowledged taking advantage of his access to push for clemency grants, starting with the invitation to the White House for talks about the Middle East peace plan. He used the opportunity to urge Mr. Trump to grant clemency to Sholom Rubashkin, the kosher meatpacking executive convicted in 2009.Sholom Rubashkin, a former kosher meatpacking executive, was convicted of bank fraud in 2009. Mr. Dershowitz pressed Mr. Trump to commute his 27-year prison sentence. Credit…Matthew Putney/The Waterloo Courier, via Associated PressMr. Rubashkin’s case had become a cause in Orthodox Jewish circles, and Mr. Dershowitz had worked on it on a pro bono basis. A few months after Mr. Dershowitz made the case to Mr. Trump in the White House, Mr. Rubashkin was free.That outcome emboldened a network of activists and groups supporting prisoners’ rights, social service and clemency, including some associated with Orthodox Jewish leaders.Mr. Dershowitz and a Jewish group with which he has worked closely, the Aleph Institute, were central players in the network. As word spread of their successes, they were inundated with requests from prisoners and their families, including many Orthodox Jews. Late last year, Mr. Trump called Mr. Dershowitz to ask about clemency grants he was advocating on a pro bono basis with the Aleph Institute for Mark A. Shapiro and Irving Stitsky, the New York real estate investors convicted in the $23 million fraud. Mr. Dershowitz cast the cases as emblematic of the trial penalty.Mr. Dershowitz had written op-eds in Newsweek and The Wall Street Journal denouncing the trial penalty and citing unnamed cases. One matched the details of Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Stitsky, who were each sentenced to 85 years in prison after they turned down plea agreements of less than 10 years. Mr. Dershowitz said one or both of the articles had circulated in the White House, and Mr. Trump had asked him about the trial penalty.“He was very interested” in the penalty, Mr. Dershowitz said, and also “the concept of the pardon power being more than just clemency, but being part of the system of checks and balances for excessive legislative or judicial actions.”Mr. Stitsky had no prior relationship with Mr. Trump. But last year, friends of Mr. Stitsky helped retain a Long Island law and lobbying firm, Gerstman Schwartz, that did. One of the firm’s partners had parlayed previous New York public relations work for Mr. Trump into a new Washington lobbying business after he became president.And Mr. Stitsky’s new lawyers also tapped into the pardon-seeking network by working with both Mr. Dershowitz and the Aleph Institute.Mr. Trump commuted the sentences of Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Stitsky.In another case championed by Mr. Dershowitz and the Aleph Institute, Mr. Trump commuted the 20-year sentence of Ronen Nahmani, an Israeli-born Florida man convicted in 2015 of selling synthetic marijuana. The appeal to the White House, which Mr. Dershowitz helped devise, included an assurance that Mr. Nahmani would leave the country and never return — a framework that Mr. Dershowitz said served as a model for Mr. Nader’s case.Mr. Dershowitz at the White House last year, before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel visited Mr. Trump.Credit…Alyssa Schukar for The New York TimesMr. Dershowitz was enlisted to help Mr. Nader by Joey Allaham, a Syrian-born New York restaurateur and businessman, who paid Mr. Dershowitz to consult on Middle East issues, including working with Mr. Nader.After Mr. Nader was arrested in 2019, Mr. Allaham connected Mr. Dershowitz to Mr. Nader’s criminal defense lawyer, Jonathan S. Jeffress, who paid Mr. Dershowitz at an hourly rate.Mr. Nader’s team grew to include the lobbyist Robert Stryk, who filed a disclosure statement saying he was working to win a presidential commutation, and the lawyer Robin Rathmell, who filed a clemency petition at the Justice Department citing Mr. Nader’s help to the United States in Middle East relations. Mr. Nader’s allies had also used that argument in the early 1990s in an effort to win a reduced sentence when he pleaded guilty to a different child pornography charge.Mr. Dershowitz said he thought it would help Mr. Nader’s current case if the American, Israeli and Emirati governments would vouch for his assistance to the United States in the region, and if Mr. Nader would pledge to leave the country upon his release.Mr. Dershowitz told Mr. Nader’s allies that he made one call last year to a Trump administration official who handled Middle East policy and who was discouraging about the idea. He also called Ron Dermer, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, who was noncommittal. After that, Mr. Dershowitz said, he shifted his efforts on behalf of Mr. Nader to focus almost exclusively on his fight to reduce his sentence in the courts.“That was 99 percent of the effort,” Mr. Dershowitz said, “because the clemency effort directed at commutation was always so uphill considering the nature of the crime that it was never realistic.”Mr. Nader’s allies had a different impression of Mr. Dershowitz’s efforts.“We understood that Mr. Dershowitz was seeking clemency on behalf of Mr. Nader,” Mr. Jeffress said, “and that he was rejected for the sole reason that Mr. Nader had cooperated in the Mueller investigation.”Nicholas Confessore More

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      Abbas Announces Palestinian Elections After Years of Paralysis

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyAbbas Announces Palestinian Elections After Years of ParalysisThe decree by President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority was viewed by analysts as a bid to lift his standing with the Biden administration. Skeptics expressed doubt the vote would happen.President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority in September. Mr. Abbas announced plans for presidential and parliamentary elections.Credit…Pool photo by Alaa BadarnehIsabel Kershner and Jan. 15, 2021Updated 8:18 p.m. ETJERUSALEM — Sixteen years after he was elected for what was meant to be a four-year term, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority announced on Friday that presidential and parliamentary elections would be held in the spring and summer.The announcement appeared to be part of an effort to get the divided Palestinian house in order and project at least a semblance of unity as the Palestinian Authority prepares to repair ties with Washington and the incoming Biden administration after a disastrous few years of discord and disconnect under President Trump.The presidential decree stated that the voting for the long-defunct Palestinian Legislative Council would take place on May 22, followed by presidential elections on July 31. Mr. Abbas, 85, the leader of Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian party, was last elected to office in early 2005 after the death of his predecessor, Yasir Arafat.Analysts said they believed that Mr. Abbas was now seeking to renew his legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, especially with the imminent arrival of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the White House, which they said Mr. Abbas hoped would herald a return to negotiations with Israel.“He doesn’t want to hear from anyone that he doesn’t represent the Palestinian people and that he’s not in control of Gaza,” said Jihad Harb, an expert on Palestinian politics.The last time the Palestinians went to the polls, it did not end happily.In 2006 a rival party representing Hamas, the Islamic militant group, trounced Fatah in elections for the Legislative Council, leading to a year and a half of uneasy power sharing.The United States and much of the West refused to work with the unity government because Hamas, which they considered a terrorist organization, would not accept international demands such as renouncing violence and recognizing Israel’s right to exist.A brief civil war between the two groups ensued in the coastal territory of Gaza. It ended in June 2007, with Hamas seizing control there after routing forces loyal to Mr. Abbas and confining his authority to parts of the occupied West Bank.Mr. Abbas responded by forming an emergency government based in the West Bank, but Hamas officials refused to recognize it. The political and geographical schism, as well as the collapse of a series of reconciliation agreements, has since stymied any semblance of a functioning democratic process.Supporters of Hamas celebrated in the southern Gaza Strip after a parliamentary victory in 2006.Credit…Shawn Baldwin for The New York TimesA behind-the-scenes succession race has long been underway in the Palestinian Authority, and Mr. Abbas said a few years ago that he did not want to run again for the presidency.But there was no hint on Friday he intended to step down, and the election announcement was greeted with a degree of skepticism because Mr. Abbas has in the past announced plans for elections that never took place.In February 2011, for example, Mr. Abbas announced that elections would be held in September of that year, but Hamas rejected the idea and they were called off.Hamas welcomed Mr. Abbas’s new decree, saying in a statement that it was keen to make the elections “successful.” It added that work was needed to create an atmosphere for free and fair elections, and that Hamas had shown what it called great flexibility in recent months “out of a belief that the decision belongs to the people.”Still, some analysts expressed significant doubts about whether Mr. Abbas was interested in ultimately allowing the elections to go ahead, and the two rival Palestinian factions have not explained publicly how they will hold elections while the West Bank and Gaza are ruled by the separate groups.“These decrees are just a maneuver to buy time,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a former adviser to Mr. Abbas and a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The deep suspicion between Abbas and Hamas still holds, and the reasons that have prevented elections in the past are still unchanged.”Nabil Amr, a veteran figure in Fatah and a former information minister, described the elections decree as “a preliminary practical step.” But he warned that Palestinians who stood to lose from the elections could work to impede them. “There are Palestinians whose privileges will be taken away if the elections are held, so they will oppose it,” he said.It remains unclear whether Hamas will accept the authority of the court that Mr. Abbas plans to establish to adjudicate election disputes, how freely candidates will be able to campaign and whether Mr. Abbas will agree to allow Hamas’s security forces, which he considers illegitimate, to secure polling booths in Gaza.Israel may also decide to bar Palestinians from voting in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem — a potential obstacle that Mr. Abbas has previously said would prevent elections from going forward.Azzam al-Ahmad, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, said Palestinian officials would ask Israel to refrain from “placing impediments” on the Palestinians voting in East Jerusalem, but added that he expected the Israelis would do so regardless.Both Hamas and Fatah are convinced that they need to hold to elections, said Ghassan Khatib, a political scientist at Birzeit University in the West Bank, but it was unclear what kind of an election it would be.“Will it be a real election, or will it be a staged election that will renew the legitimacy of the same old guards?” he said. “My fear is that it’s a kind of election that is not going to make any change — except that it will give the superficial impression that we are more legitimate now.”More broadly, he wondered how the election could be pulled off after such a long and bitter split.“How are we going to conduct an election where the political system is divided completely into two separate election systems, two judicial systems, two security apparatuses, two everythings?” Mr. Khatib said. “That’s the question everyone is asking.”Patrick Kingsley contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Mohammed Najib from Ramallah, West Bank.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Israeli Election, Take Four: Conservatives vs. Conservatives

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesThe Stimulus DealThe Latest Vaccine InformationF.A.Q.AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyNews analysisIsraeli Election, Take Four: Conservatives vs. ConservativesAfter the center-left failed in three elections to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fourth one is shaping up into a contest among right-wing leaders.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has survived three electoral challenges in a row from the center-left. Now he faces two challengers from the right.Credit…Pool photo by Yonatan SindelDec. 23, 2020, 6:28 p.m. ETJERUSALEM — For three elections in a row, Israel’s conservative prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has managed to stave off challenges from the center-left.Now, as Israel moves to an unprecedented fourth early election in two years, the center-left has imploded and Mr. Netanyahu faces a challenge from his own former allies on the right.The election, set for March 23 after a fragile, fractious unity coalition disintegrated on Tuesday, is shaping up as a battle of conservatives versus conservatives, an intramural contest for the leadership of the roughly half of Israeli voters who consider themselves right-of-center.“It will be a right-wing government,” said Gadi Wolfsfeld, a veteran analyst of Israeli elections. “The question is who will lead it, and how right-wing will it be?”Leading the charge against Mr. Netanyahu, the longtime premier and leader of the conservative Likud party, are two former protégés-turned-rivals: Naftali Bennett, a former education and defense minister who leads the religious-right Yamina party, and Gideon Saar, a popular former education and interior minister.Mr. Bennett, 48, sitting in the opposition, elevated his stature and his standing in the polls this year by assailing Mr. Netanyahu’s handling of the coronavirus. He toured the country’s hospitals, courted business owners suffering repeated lockdowns and published a book-length list of recommendations on contact tracing, testing and more, a number of which the government adopted.Naftali Bennett, right, a former education and defense minister, leads the religious-right Yamina party.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesBut it was the defection this month of Mr. Saar, 54, from Likud to form a breakaway right-wing party called “New Hope” that catapulted him into contention overnight. His move has invigorated critics of the prime minister, known to Israelis as Bibi, raising hopes that this election could be the one that sends Mr. Netanyahu, 71, into retirement.“For the first time, the fight is on the right side of the map,” said Karine Nahon, a political scientist at the Interdisciplinary Center-Herzliya. “Usually it fell in behind Bibi without any questions. Now, two parties are actually challenging the hegemony of the Likud.”Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, will scarcely be at a disadvantage heading into the March contest: He is already trumpeting Israel’s speedy start to vaccinations and its historic normalization deals with four Arab states. And he is a master of controlling the news cycle, among the many benefits of incumbency.Still, the pandemic has thrown a million Israelis out of work, business leaders warn that tens of thousands of companies could be wiped out, and yet another lockdown is looming to remind voters of the government’s inability to curb the virus.But Mr. Netanyahu’s biggest liability could emerge in February, when testimony is to begin in his trial on felony corruption charges, including bribery and breach of trust. A key reason that Israel is being subjected to yet another election, analysts say, is Mr. Netanyahu’s burning desire to bolster his support in Parliament for a possible move to mitigate his legal exposure, defer prosecution or even have the case tossed altogether.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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      Why Israel Faces a Fourth Election in Just Two Years

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhy Israel Faces a Fourth Election in Just Two YearsWhat to know as Israel gears up for another vote, this time set for March 23.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, center, is again fighting for political survival.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersDec. 23, 2020, 9:05 a.m. ETJERUSALEM — With Israel heading to its fourth election in two years after the collapse of its government, many in the country are wondering whether it’s a case of too much democracy.The last three ballots ended inconclusively, with no single candidate able to muster the parliamentary majority required to form a government. The stalemate allowed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the conservative Likud party to persuade his main rival, Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White party, to join forces in an uneasy coalition.It lasted just seven months.Mr. Netanyahu now finds himself again fighting for political survival while on trial, charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and amid the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated the Israeli economy.Here is what to watch for as Israel gears up for another election, this time set for March 23.Why is this happening?A protest in Jerusalem this month over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, corruption and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersThe main reason, analysts say, is Mr. Netanyahu’s legal and political calculation that he can best fight his criminal case from the prime minister’s office. They say he is ready to take the country to election after election in an effort to cling to power.Ostensibly, the latest government fell over Mr. Netanyahu’s refusal to pass a state budget for 2020 by the legal deadline of midnight on Tuesday, in violation of his coalition agreement with Mr. Gantz.Mr. Netanyahu is betting on being able to form a more sympathetic government that could grant him immunity from prosecution, analysts say. His corruption trial is scheduled to move into an intensive evidentiary stage early next year, when the country will witness the spectacle of his appearing in court.Mr. Netanyahu blamed Mr. Gantz for the breakdown in the coalition government, saying that he and his Blue and White party refused to allow the prime minister any say in a series of upcoming government and judicial appointments. But opinion polls indicate that most Israelis blame Mr. Netanyahu.“There are a lot of smoke screens, but I think we need to be fair and to be quite explicit about it,” said Yohanan Plesner, the president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan research group.“This won’t end until either Mr. Netanyahu is replaced or if he finds a way, by legislation or political maneuvering, to either put his trial on hold or to suspend it altogether,” Mr. Plesner said.What happened in the last three elections?Benny Gantz, the Blue and White party leader, addressing supporters in February.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesThe last three ballots were essentially a face-off between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz, a former army chief who entered politics two years ago.Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, came with a strong Likud base and experience. The centrist Blue and White under Mr. Gantz promised national unity and the rule of law.Banding together with smaller parties that vaguely divided up along right-wing-religious and center-left lines, the two blocs ended up in a chronic tie. After two elections failed to produce a stable government, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz joined forces.Will Round 4 be different?A new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, center, hopes to draw voters away from Mr. Netanyahu.Credit…Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPerhaps. A few weeks ago, opinion polls indicated that Mr. Netanyahu would be well positioned to form a new government made up of right-wing loyalists and his ultra-Orthodox allies. But a new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, has since entered the ring and rejiggered the electoral map, competing for Mr. Netanyahu’s base voters, among others.Mr. Saar, who lost to Mr. Netanyahu in a Likud leadership race a year ago, recently defected from the party and set up a rival one called New Hope, taking a few coalition members with him. Osnat Mark, a Likud lawmaker and Netanyahu loyalist, called New Hope “a party of traitors and deserters.”Mr. Gantz lost most of his public support after joining forces with Mr. Netanyahu, having previously made an election pledge not to. With his Blue and White party now disintegrating amid infighting, the main battle this time is likely to be for the leadership of the right.Numerous polls taken since Mr. Saar’s move suggest, however, that there is still no party leader with an easy path to forming a government.Because no single party ever manages to command an outright majority in the 120-seat Parliament, larger parties must join forces with smaller ones to form a viable coalition. That often gives minor coalition partners disproportionate leverage.If no candidate garners a majority of 61 this time, Israel’s political crisis could go on. And on.What’s at stake for Mr. Netanyahu and for Israel?Israelis at a Dubai shopping mall during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in October. Israel and the Emirates reached a landmark accord this year.Credit…Dan Balilty for The New York TimesA March election comes with significant risk for Mr. Netanyahu, who tried unsuccessfully to postpone Parliament’s budget deadline after Mr. Saar broke away.Israel’s coronavirus vaccination campaign is just getting underway, so a late spring or summer vote might have been more advantageous for him, because an economic recovery might have begun by then.Instead, the campaign will take place as Israel grapples with a third wave of the virus.In another handicap for Mr. Netanyahu, he will be facing voters this time without the support and election gifts provided by his closest international ally, President Trump, and will instead have to deal with the Biden administration after it takes over in January.Yet Mr. Netanyahu, popularly known as Bibi, also has plenty he can boast about. With the help of the Trump administration, he has delivered deals to establish diplomatic relations with four formerly hostile Arab countries in the past four months.His administrations have led the country through years of relative security stability, and the country has now secured millions of coronavirus vaccine doses.“Israel could definitely become one of the first countries to emerge from the crisis,” he said in a televised address on Tuesday night.Election promises made by his staunchest political opponents, including Mr. Gantz, never to sit in a coalition led by a prime minister under criminal indictment have proved worthless in the past.With politicians at loggerheads over fundamental issues like equality and the powers of the courts, Israelis must now decide what kind of democracy they want and which candidate is best equipped to contend with challenges posed by the coronavirus and with regional threats from Iran and its proxies.Whatever the case, this next election, like the three before it, is set to largely be a contest between the “Only Bibi” and “Anyone but Bibi” camps.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Israeli Government Collapses, Forcing 4th Election in 2 Years

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyIsraeli Government Collapses, Forcing 4th Election in 2 YearsA protracted political crisis revolving around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal troubles brings down the coalition government.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “I’m not afraid of elections. We’re ready for them. We’ll win.”Credit…Pool photo by Ronen ZvulunDec. 22, 2020Updated 5:09 p.m. ETJERUSALEM — Israel’s government collapsed Tuesday, pushing the country into yet another early election — the fourth in two years.The Israeli Parliament dissolved itself at midnight on Tuesday. The move forced a new election after weeks of infighting and paralysis in the so-called unity government, an uneasy coalition sworn in just seven months ago that paired Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party with his main rival-turned-partner, Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White party.Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz blamed each other for the crisis.“I think at the current time, we should have united forces to find a way to avert these needless elections,” Mr. Netanyahu said in Parliament early Tuesday as he tried, and failed, to seek a delay in its dissolution.A new election must take place in three months and is scheduled for March 23. But an election date in the late spring or summer, once the coronavirus vaccination campaign is well underway, might have been more advantageous for Mr. Netanyahu.Parliament automatically dispersed at midnight after failing to meet the legal deadline for approving a budget for 2020. Mr. Netanyahu, whose party holds the finance portfolio, had refused to present a budget, in violation of his coalition agreement with Mr. Gantz — the ostensible reason for the government breakdown.But at the heart of the crisis lies a deep, mutual distrust between the two men and a country fundamentally split over the fate of Mr. Netanyahu, whose corruption trial is scheduled to move into an intensive, evidentiary stage in early 2021, requiring his regular presence in court. He has been charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He denies any wrongdoing.Benny Gantz, left, and Mr. Netanyahu have blamed each other for the crisis that has brought their government to the point of collapse.Credit…Pool photo by Tal ShaharAnalysts said that Mr. Netanyahu was gambling on another election in the hope of forming a right-wing, religious government that would grant him some kind of immunity from prosecution.“It’s not the budget, stupid,” said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Mr. Netanyahu “needs a government that will pass legislation either to delay his case for the foreseeable future or cancel it altogether,” he added.But failing to present a budget and forcing the dispersal of Parliament provides him with an escape hatch from the coalition agreement stipulating that Mr. Gantz should take over as prime minister 11 months from now. From the inception of the unity government, few people, including Mr. Gantz, expected Mr. Netanyahu to honor that agreement.Mr. Gantz’s party, for its part, refused to back any compromise with Mr. Netanyahu over the authority for making key appointments, including for the posts of attorney general and state attorney. A compromise would have violated Blue and White’s flagship policy of upholding the rule of law but would have kept the government on life support.Mr. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who is renowned for his political savvy, quickly pivoted into campaign mode.“The majority of the citizens of Israel see our leadership and our tremendous achievements,” he said in a televised address on Tuesday evening. “We are bringing in millions of vaccinations, delivering historic peace agreements, curbing the Iranian threat and turning Israel into one of the world’s leading economies.”Mr. Gantz said his party had entered Mr. Netanyahu’s government, despite paying a high political price, “to serve the best interests of the country, given the needs and scale of the moment.”“Unfortunately,” he added, “we found no partner on the other end.”A demonstrator was detained in Jerusalem this month during a protest against Mr. Netanyahu and his handling of the coronavirus crisis.Credit…Amir Cohen/ReutersThe current government will remain in place in a caretaker capacity until after the election and the formation of a new government, a process that could take many months.Both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz are taking a considerable political risk by going back to the polls.The unity government was formed as a last resort after three inconclusive elections ended without any one candidate being able to muster a parliamentary majority. While Mr. Netanyahu and his Likud party were far ahead in the polls a few weeks ago, a new conservative challenger, Gideon Saar, has shaken things up.Mr. Saar, who lost to Mr. Netanyahu in a Likud leadership race a year ago, recently defected from the party and set up a rival one called New Hope. Drawing support from disenchanted voters from both the right and the political center, Mr. Saar’s move has muddied any clear path back to power for Mr. Netanyahu, according to recent opinion polls, meaning that Israel’s political morass may persist even beyond a new election.Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party had already lost the bulk of its popular support after it broke its campaign promise and entered into government with a prime minister under indictment. Critics say that Mr. Gantz, a former army chief, is a weak and indecisive party leader and that his two-year political career is all but over.“I think he needs to get up and go,” Professor Hazan, the political science expert, said.Damning him further, Mr. Netanyahu said that he had actually reached a compromise with Mr. Gantz on Monday on the issue of appointments and authorities, but that rebels within the Blue and White party, including the justice minister, Avi Nissenkorn, had blocked Mr. Gantz from making the deal.Miki Zohar, a Likud official, said Blue and White was committing “political suicide.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      To Understand Red-State America, He Urges a Look at Red-State Israel

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      Biden Transition Updates

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