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    Make no mistake: Biden's success is an important win for the world | Cas Mudde

    Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the popular vote with a record number of votes. That is worth celebratingSo, it wasn’t a landslide, but it will be a decisive victory after all. With an estimated 306 electoral college votes, Biden will even be two votes above Trump’s “biggest electoral college victory since Reagan” in 2016.But seriously, it will be weird to have a president again who will live in our reality rather than his own. I wonder how long we will enjoy it. People forget fast, and media and pundits even faster. How long before we will all complain about how “boring” and “predictable” Biden is, two of the characteristics that helped him win the election. Continue reading… More

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    How can Joe Biden deal with Donald Trump's obstruction in transition?

    The president-elect can learn from Franklin D Roosevelt’s response to Herbert HooverPresidential transitions are never easy, especially when they involve an incumbent president defeated at the polls. But this time the transition occurs in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. The incumbent refuses to acknowledge the vote as a rejection of his policies and has a visceral dislike for the president-elect, who he accuses of dishonesty and dismisses as too frail to assume the duties of office. He tars his successor as a socialist, an advocate of policies that will put the country on the road to ruin.The year was 1932, and the transition from Herbert Hoover to Franklin D Roosevelt occurred in the midst of an unparalleled economic depression and banking crisis. The outgoing president, Hoover, had an intense aversion to his successor, whose incapacity of concern was not any lack of mental acuity, but rather Roosevelt’s partial paralysis. He called FDR a “chameleon on plaid” and accused him of dealing “from the bottom of the deck”. In his campaign and subsequently, Hoover insinuated that FDR’s socialistic tendencies would put the country on a “march to Moscow”. Continue reading… More

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    Will Trump accept defeat and leave the White House? Yes, experts say

    Donald Trump may never concede that he legitimately lost the 2020 election and the US presidency.That in itself will probably not matter too much, but he may use his final months in office before Joe Biden takes office in January, 2021 to push the divisive politics that have become his calling card. He may even boycott Biden’s inauguration ceremony.But even if Trump and his colleagues sow a sloppy, chaotic and vindictive transition of power, it’s still unfathomable that the one-term president would belligerently barricade himself inside the Oval Office and refuse to leave, says Lawrence Douglas, a professor of law, jurisprudence and social thought at Amherst College.“I do not see that happening,” says Douglas, whose book Will He Go? considers the aftermath of the 2020 election. “I think at some point, Donald Trump will submit to defeat.”After flirting with the idea of rejecting unfavorable election results for years, Trump has stoked fears of worst-case scenarios: civil war, a weaponized supreme court, and even the end to American democracy. With only 10% of Trump’s supporters initially believing Biden won the presidential contest, many Americans are also concerned about an outburst of violence, even as the rancorous commander-in-chief paints a baseless picture of rigged, fraudulent results.“I had such a big lead in all of these states late into election night, only to see the leads miraculously disappear as the days went by. Perhaps these leads will return as our legal proceedings move forward!” Trump tweeted on Friday.In a last-ditch effort for Republicans to hold onto the executive branch, Trump and his allies have already begun filing a firestorm of lawsuits around the election. But they’ve made little headway thus far.“If the number of contested ballots are not greater than the margin, courts are not eager to tear open an election,” although judicial scrutiny could actually address a “lingering cloud of illegitimacy” around the vote counts, said Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School.If any of Trump’s legal challenges do find sympathy among Republican lawmakers and federal courts, that could cause a messy, fraught environment leading up to 20 January, when Biden is supposed to take office.But it’s more probable that Republicans will remain silent even if Trump continues to fuss and largely refuses to cooperate with Biden’s people in the interim, says Julian Zelizer, a historian at Princeton University.“The difficulty with that is it just doesn’t give the new administration the best tools, the best information, and the best transition that we would hope for,” Zelizer says. But “my guess is Biden’s already expecting that”.Even as a lame duck, Trump could strategically force Democrats to oppose executive orders that underscore their party’s vulnerabilities ahead of runoff elections in Georgia that will determine who controls the US Senate, Turley says. If the outgoing administration does lean on executive orders, those can be dismantled by Biden.But after Democrats spent four years challenging whether Trump could rescind former president Barack Obama’s policies, Turley says, they’ve created a “precedent of their own making” against reversing such orders without long administrative slogs.Trump may use the power of the presidency to push for more conservative court appointments, another tax cut or environmental deregulations – measures to “remind Republicans of why a lot of Republicans voted for him”, says Zelizer, even as he exits the White House. Although he lost re-election, he still won more than 70m votes, and he could wield significant authority over his base for years to come.“He will continue to tell tens of millions of Americans that the Biden presidency is illegitimate, that essentially the Democrats have committed a coup,” Douglas says. “That could certainly pave the way for a resurgence of Trumpism, if not Trump himself in 2024.”Meanwhile, Biden may inherit a divided government that’s struggled to cooperate and compromise in recent years, shaken by a tumultuous transition.“He’s a decent person who genuinely will try to unite Americans,” Douglas says. “Now, whether he’ll be successful at doing that remains to be seen.” More

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    Goodbye Trump, hello Biden: how America is waving goodbye to a shocking, shameful era

    As the result was finally called, the end of his presidency confirmed, Donald Trump teed off on a crisp, autumnal Saturday afternoon at his private golf club in Virginia.
    The president was in the midst of a four-day mission to spread baseless misinformation about election integrity in an attempt to subvert US democracy.
    “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” he tweeted, falsely, hours before hitting the fairway.
    Of the many false claims Trump has made over the past four years – lying about the size of his inauguration crowd, lying about the trajectory of a life-threatening hurricane, lying about the deadliness of the coronavirus – the lies about this election are the most farcical and grotesque.
    And they have not worked.
    A growing chorus of world leaders, some members of the Republican party, and tens of millions of Americans have already begun to move on. Trump cast a lonely figure as he returned to the White House after golfing, his motorcade met on the street by hundreds of protesters who simultaneously gave him the middle finger.
    At the time of writing, he has yet to concede the election; perhaps he never will. A number of spurious legal challenges remain outstanding as well. But on Saturday evening, celebrations in US cities continued into the night.
    That evening, president-elect Joe Biden jogged on to the stage in Wilmington, Delaware, and declared the beginning of a new political age. “Let this grim era of demonisation in America begin to end – here and now,” he told a crowd assembled in their cars, honking their horns, tears in their eyes. “Our nation is shaped by the constant battle between our better angels and our darkest impulses. And what presidents say in this battle matters. It is time for our better angels to prevail.”
    Miles away I found myself at the front of a different Joe Biden celebration parade, in the city of Palm Beach, south Florida. This is one of the state’s most economically divided urban areas, with low-income, diverse neighbourhoods to the west and fabulous wealth to the east. Perhaps nothing is more ostentatious than Trump’s own Mar-a-Lago private members club – his self-described “winter White House”.
    The car convoy, of about 50 vehicles, crossed into the affluent suburbs, and wound around the tall palm-lined roads less than a mile from Trump’s club.
    “We did it! We did it!” shouted Wendy Bostic, 37, a preschool teacher, and one of the thousands of Black female organisers who helped Biden secure this victory. Bostic lost her job for six months during the pandemic and believes Biden offers a pathway to help rebuild her community. “It’s over. This darkness. It’s over.”
    She gestured to her two-year-old twin daughters, Nyla and Kyla, and said the months of community-organising had been to secure their future. The US will see its first female, first Black, first Asian-American vice-president, Kamala Harris, something that meant everything to Bostic. “It’s almost more important than Biden himself,” she said.
    Although Biden lost Florida, he secured the most votes of any presidential candidate in US history, more than 74.5 million. Exit polling suggests his coalition included nearly 90% of Black voters, two-thirds of Hispanic and Asian voters, more than 60% of younger people and over half of women. He appears to have won the popular vote by at least 4m.
    In most advanced democracies that would be a major mandate to govern. But the US Senate still hangs in the balance with two runoff elections in the state of Georgia set to decide who controls the chamber – a pivotal branch of government that could make or break the Biden administration’s legislative agenda.
    Still, the power of the presidency will allow Joe Biden to reverse some of the most extreme actions of the previous administration. He will take a more proactive approach to mitigating the effects of the pandemic. He will rejoin the Paris climate agreement. He will end the construction of Trump’s wall. All likely within the first few days of taking office.
    But policy reversals and soaring rhetoric will only get him so far. And failures to protect the most vulnerable in US society began well before Donald Trump.
    This has been a polarising four years, leaving the US a more damaged and fractured society. While the majority of the country voted for Biden, more than 70 million Americans cast their ballot for Donald Trump. The president has created a new political paradigm, partly rooted in the country’s oldest sins but also fostered by a climate of conspiracy theories, disinformation and a cult of personality.
    Reporting on this election has often felt like reporting on two different realities.
    I spent election night split between these two worlds. More precisely, I spent it peering into a packed party in Palm Beach, through the safety of a glass door. Inside, 500 Republican revellers, without masks or social-distancing, danced to the Village People and celebrated a Trump victory, even as it became increasingly clear the victor would not be decided on the night. Behind those doors it was as if the pandemic did not exist. And Donald Trump would remain president for eternity.
    But as the reality of a days-long wait began to dawn on the assembled crowd, some of whom had spent $500 to attend, the anger was palpable.
    “If Biden gets in, we are totally ducked,” said a woman, resisting the urge to swear as she left. “We’re ducked to the max because he’s going to shut everything down. He’s listening to the stupid scientists. They don’t understand everything.”
    I have often found myself at the centre of Trump’s darkest impulses over the past four years, reporting from the ground on the real-life consequences of his brutal policy decisions, his dangerous rhetoric and sheer incompetence.
    In 2018, I sat in a federal courthouse in McAllen, Texas, and watched a man named Ramón Villata, an asylum seeker from El Salvador, beg a US judge to be reunited with his two-year-old son. They had been ripped apart by the administration’s child-separation policy, perhaps the most damning indictment of the morality vacuum created by his presidency.
    In 2017, I was dispatched to Charlottesville, Virginia, a day after the murder of the antiracism activist Heather Heyer. I watched her friends and family weep after her death at the hands of a white supremacist terrorist, after torch-waving neo-Nazi thugs had screamed “Jews will not replace us” during a violent rally in her home town. Trump described “very fine people on both sides” in the immediate aftermath of a racist riot, an abhorrent nod to white supremacists.
    Later that year, I reported from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria claimed the lives of 3,057 Americans. As Trump tossed paper towels into a crowd in San Juan, the island’s capital, and professed his administration had done a “fantastic job” in the recovery, I sat with a family in a remote rural town in the centre of the island who had lost almost everything, forced to drink stream water and live by candlelight. They had received no federal aid, and the administration would continue to fail the island for months to come.
    And this year, in some of the poorest communities of colour in the US south, I have witnessed the tragedy of death, illness and economic hardship imposed by the pandemic on society’s most vulnerable. All amid antagonism against public health, objective science, and a culture war, instigated by the most powerful man on earth, over the simple act of wearing a face mask.
    Rhetoric, policy and competence are easy to rectify. But uniting the nation, restoring faith in institutions, facts and truth, and now the democratic process itself, will be the challenge of Joe Biden’s lifetime.
    He made a tentative first step towards that on Saturday night.
    “To make progress we have to stop treating our opponents as our enemy. They are not our enemies,” he said. “They are Americans.” More

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    Donald Trump wanted a fight with athletes. They may well have doomed him

    Sports and politics have always existed at a very public intersection in American life, but never was the illusory firewall keeping them apart more nakedly exposed than over the past four years. Donald Trump’s political alchemy has always relied on his uncanny skill at leveraging the fault lines that divide us. It’s proven an essential tactic for someone who managed to capture the Republican presidential nomination despite failing to win a majority in the first 40 primaries and caucuses, who won the White House despite losing the popular vote by nearly three million ballots and whose overall approval ratings have never cracked a majority throughout his term.
    From the earliest days of his administration Trump has found fertile ground in taking this fight to America’s last unifying arena: co-opting US sports as not merely a proxy battle in the culture wars that reflect a country’s deep divides, but the primary theatre. He’s always recognized sports as an inextricable stripe of the American experience: from owning a team in the upstart United States Football League in the early 1980s to hosting a series of major prizefights at his casino in Atlantic City before it went bankrupt, most notably the 1988 blockbuster between Mike Tyson and Michael Spinks, for which he paid a then-record $11m site fee. It’s these roots in boxing promotion, where misdirection and the manifold arts of emotional manipulation are the stock-in-trade, that served him particularly well during his stunning ascent to the White House. But it wasn’t until a rally in Alabama nine months into his presidency that he first seized on what became his favorite fountainhead of easy political points.
    His sensational broadside on Colin Kaepernick was only the start. Before long Trump was jousting with NBA stars Stephen Curry and LeBron James over his decision to rescind the Golden State Warriors’ unaccepted invitation for the White House visit traditionally extended to championship-winning teams (eliciting the all-time burn from LeBron of “U bum”). He picked a fight with Megan Rapinoe, a proudly gay athlete with a taste for battle whose outspoken political views have made her a lightning rod for conservatives. He launched a baseless attack on Bubba Wallace over an incident this summer in which a noose was found in the team garage of Nascar’s only black driver. When then-ESPN correspondent Jemele Hill tweeted that Trump was “a white supremacist who has largely surrounded himself w/ other white supremacists”, Trump clapped back first through the White House press secretary, who declared the comments “a fireable offense”, then doubled down with a name-check on Twitter pegged to Hill’s two-week suspension from the network.
    For the first few years it was a cost-free enterprise. The targeted demonization of these so-called elites, almost exclusively from minority or otherwise marginalized communities, was red meat for his base: a white guy talking tough in a country where white guys talking tough is still for many seen as something to be impressed by. It played to our worst instincts and our lowest common denominator. Depressingly, it was good politics.
    But a funny thing happened on the way to a re-election that for years felt like a fait accompli given the historical power of the incumbency. With the sports world at a standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic and amid nationwide unrest over the police killings of George Floyd in Minneapolis and Breonna Taylor in Louisville, the calculus changed. A strategy dependent on the highly instinctive command of thin margins began to tilt against its conductor. The accumulation of the president’s incessant counter-punching led to organization among professional athletes that not only drew attention to social and racial injustice – remember: Kaepernick only wanted to start a conversation – but brought about a high-water point of athlete activism not seen since the 1960s, when champions such as Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Kareem Abdul‑Jabbar risked their livelihoods to stand on the frontline of the civil rights movement.
    In June, Roger Goodell, the NFL commissioner who three years ago gifted Trump a decisive optical victory when he unveiled a policy requiring every player, coach, trainer, ballboy, referee and executive to stand for the national anthem or face punishment, admitted the decision was wrong in a stunning about-face that was seen as a snub of the US president. Goodell’s mea culpa directly followed a video challenge to the league from some of the NFL’s biggest stars – including Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Odell Beckham – who spoke powerfully about the omnipresence of systemic racism against black Americans. More

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    Will Mitch McConnell strangle Joe Biden's legislative program at birth?

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    After celebrating the winning of a Joe Biden presidency, Democrats are waking to the hangover of figuring out how to govern under the shadow of a runaway pandemic and the potential for gridlock imposed by the man who likes to call himself the Grim Reaper, the Republican Senate leader, Mitch McConnell.
    The imagined “blue wave” that was to bring Democratic control over the Senate did not materialize, but Biden’s party has not entirely given up hope. There will be two Senate run-off races in Georgia on 5 January, and if Democrats win both, that will scrape a 50-50 tie in the chamber, allowing Kamala Harris, as vice-president, to cast tie-breaking votes.
    It is not impossible. Voter registration drives look to have succeeded in turning the state blue in the presidential election for the first time since 1992. But it will be an uphill task, and most Georgia observers expect the parties to emerge from the runoffs with one seat apiece, leaving the Senate split 51-49 in the Republicans’ favor.
    In that case, a Biden presidency would have to contend with the veteran senator from Kentucky who relishes the nickname of Grim Reaper for his lethal treatment of almost all Democratic legislation. He said in 2010 that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president”.
    McConnell failed in that task but made up for it by killing off mounds of Democratic legislation and Obama nominations for administrative positions. So despite winning more votes than anyone in US political history, Biden will have to share power with the head of a chamber in which Wyoming (population 586,107) has the same clout as California (nearly 40 million).
    “Mitch McConnell will force Joe Biden to negotiate every single cabinet secretary, every single district court judge, every single US attorney with him,” the Democratic senator Chris Murphy told Politico. “My guess is we’ll have a constitutional crisis pretty immediately.”
    The immediate impact will be on Biden’s freedom to pick a cabinet. Left-of-centre candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, would be ruled out, as would be officials that Senate Republicans have a grudge against, like the former national security adviser Susan Rice and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams who helped Biden’s likely win in Georgia.
    It will also crush Biden’s aspirations of becoming a latter-day Franklin Delano Roosevelt, with large-scale public investment aimed at creating a low-carbon US economy.
    Biden could try peeling off the small handful of moderate Republican senators for critical votes, like Susan Collins of Maine, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts or Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, but the fear of attacks from the right will remain a powerful disciplinary tool on Republicans even after Trump has left office. Recruiting centrist Republicans might work for individual pieces of legislation but it is unlikely to represent a reliable strategy for governing.
    That ultimately might depend on the potential for compromise between two old men, both born in 1942, who spent much of their lives in the Senate. The optimists point that McConnell was the only Republican senator to attend the funeral of Biden’s eldest son, Beau, in 2015.
    “When President Obama and Senator McConnell were at loggerheads over legislation, on more than one occasion McConnell’s office let it be known that if the White House would send Biden to negotiate, the chances of reaching a successful compromise would be substantially enhanced, and that is in fact what happened. So there’s a history here that’s not entirely discouraging,” said William Galston, who was deputy assistant for domestic policy in the Clinton administration.
    But Galston, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, added that McConnell’s obstructionist record under Obama was significantly less hopeful portent.
    “If Senator McConnell makes the same decision this time, we’re in for a very grim two years,” he said
    Wendy Schiller, political science professor at Brown University, argued that Biden might be able to sell some Republicans on infrastructure-building legislation as long as it was not sold as green investment.
    But overall, Schiller thought Biden would have to be realistic over what will be possible under cohabitation with McConnell.
    “I think he understands what his job is. It’s not going to be to pass sweeping legislation – this is no FDR or Lyndon Johnson. This is a guy trying to get us back on track to some sort of normalcy in governance,” she said. “That’s Biden’s job, and anybody who’s expecting any grand legislative measures is just living in fantasyland.” More

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    Joe Biden's coronavirus taskforce to meet as Trump urged to cooperate

    Joe Biden will convene a coronavirus taskforce on Monday to confront one of the biggest problems vexing the US, as the president-elect and his running mate, Kamala Harris, move ahead with their transition process.On Sunday night, Biden and Harris released their first public schedule as “president-elect” and “vice-president-elect”.Biden is due to meet with a 12-member advisory board led by former the surgeon general, Vivek Murthy, and the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, David Kessler, to examine how best to tame a pandemic that has killed more than 237,000 Americans.He will speak in Wilmington, Delaware, about his plans for tackling the coronavirus pandemic and rebuilding the economy later in the day.Biden has spent much of the campaign criticising Donald Trump’s handling of the crisis and has vowed to listen to scientists to guide his own approach.There are questions over whether Trump, who has not publicly recognised Biden’s victory and has falsely claimed the election was stolen, will impede Democrats as they try to establish a government.The transition cannot shift into high gear until the US General Services Administration, which oversees federal property, certifies the winner.Emily Murphy, the Trump appointee who runs the agency, has not given the go-ahead for the transition to begin, and on Sunday night a GSA spokeswoman gave no timetable for the decision.Until then, the GSA can continue providing Biden’s team with offices, computers and background checks for security clearances, but they cannot yet enter federal agencies or access federal funds set aside for the transition.The Biden campaign on Sunday pressed the agency to move ahead.“America’s national security and economic interests depend on the federal government signalling clearly and swiftly that the United States government will respect the will of the American people and engage in a smooth and peaceful transfer of power,” the campaign said in a statement.There is little precedent in the modern era of a president erecting hurdles for his successor. The stakes are especially high this year because Biden will take office amid a raging pandemic, which will require a comprehensive government response.The advisory board of the nonpartisan Center for Presidential Transition also urged the Trump administration to “immediately begin the post-election transition process and the Biden team to take full advantage of the resources available under the Presidential Transition Act”.Biden’s taskforce will be responsible for executing the promises he made on the campaign trail for tackling Covid-19, which include doubling the number of drive-through testing sites, establishing a US public health job corps to mobilise 100,000 Americans on contact tracing; and ramping up production of masks, face shields and other PPE equipment.Trump has no public events scheduled for Monday, and he has not spoken in public since Thursday. Vice-president Mike Pence is due to meet with the White House coronavirus taskforce on Monday for the first time since 20 October.As part of a public campaign to question the election results, he is planning to hold rallies to build support for his fight over the outcome, Trump’s campaign spokesman, Tim Murtaugh, said.The US recorded more than 127,399 cases on Saturday, bringing the total recorded to nearly 9.9m, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 1,000 deaths were recorded, bring the national toll close to 237,000. America has reported over 100,000 infections five times in the past week, according to a Reuters analysis, which found that the latest seven-day average in the US is more than the combined average for India and France, two of the hardest hit countries overseas.Biden’s transition effort now has a website, BuildBackBetter.com, and a Twitter account, @Transition46. Biden’s team is also expected to move forward with efforts to choose the officials who will serve with him in his administration. He has not offered a timeline for cabinet picks, but he and Harris have pledged that his administration leaders will reflect the country, with representation of women and people of colour.He is also reportedly planning a series of urgent orders that would roll back some of Trump’s agenda, in some cases fulfilling his campaign promises. That includes repealing the travel ban against Muslim-majority countries (one of Trump’s first actions); rejoining the international climate accord; rejoining the World Health Organization; taking action to protect “Dreamers” from deportation; revoking “the global gag rule”, which blocks the US government from funding groups that conduct abortions or advocate abortion rights; and reestablishing Obama-era environmental regulations.But Trump has not yet acknowledged defeat and has launched an array of lawsuits to press claims of election fraud for which he has produced no evidence. State officials say they are not aware of any significant irregularities. Since the race was called, the president has been golfing and tweeting a steady stream of election misinformation that has forced Twitter to acknowledge his allegations are disputed and that mail-in voting is safe and secure.Murtaugh said Trump will hold a series of rallies to build support for the legal fights challenging the outcome, though he did not say when and where they would take place.Trump will seek to back up his as-yet-unsubstantiated accusations of voting fraud by highlighting obituaries of dead people the campaign said voted in the election, Murtaugh said.Trump also announced teams to pursue recounts in several states. Experts said that effort, like his lawsuits, are unlikely to meet with success.“The chances of a recount flipping tens of thousands of votes across multiple states in his favour are outside anything we have seen in American history,” William Antholis, the director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center thinktank, wrote in an essay on Sunday.Reuters contributed to this report More