Subterms
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, confirms there will be a recount in the state where Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump by just over 1,500 votes
Biden 1,579 votes ahead in Georgia as recount confirmed
Joe Biden inches closer to White House More
Donald Trump’s repeated claims to have won the US presidential election while votes remain to be counted have focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the final result?
It could take days, weeks or even months, depending on what happens.
What usually happens?
US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.
In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.
This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.
Why is that not happening this time?
Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.
Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines. Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close.
There was no early processing in multiple key battleground states this year, however, because Republican-led state legislatures refused urgent requests from local elections officials to pass new laws to allow extra time for ballot processing. Such a refusal in Pennsylvania produced enormous backlogs in cities such as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, which has gone from counting about 6,000 mail-in ballots in 2016 to more than 350,000 this year.
Which states are we talking about?
Five states have yet to be called: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Several news organizations, including the Associated Press and Fox News’ decision desk, have called Arizona for Joe Biden. The Trump campaign is arguing, however, that call was made too early.
Alaska will end up in the Republican column with near certainty.
The race is extremely tight in Georgia. Biden pulled ahead of Trump by 1,097 votes on Friday morning, with 99% of votes reported, according to Edison.
The Democratic challenger is ahead in Nevada, with only Democratic-leaning late postal ballots left to tally. But by state law, ballots postmarked on election day can be counted as long as they are received by 5pm on 10 November, which means counting in the state could continue through the weekend.
In North Carolina, while Trump is the clear favourite, the state accepts postal ballots until 12 November – although that is expected to make little difference. State officials have said a full result would not be known until next week.
Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania on Friday morning. He’s been winning the mail-in ballot counts by huge margins, and could very well take the state. Pennsylvania officials say they expect most votes will be counted by later on Friday.
What else is complicating matters?
Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.
There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.
The really big unknown: a disputed result
In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a supreme court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.
More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breaches of electoral law in the 2020 election, according to reports, and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic.
Trump and his campaign have this week already sued to halt vote-counting in Pennsylvania and Georgia (which have not yet been called by Associated Press) and Michigan, which the AP called for Biden. Judges in Georgia and Michigan quickly dismissed the campaign’s lawsuits on Thursday.
Trump’s campaign has also requested a recount in Wisconsin, which AP called for Biden.
There is no evidence the campaign’s legal challenges will have a bearing on the election result under the law. More
Wall Street is supposed to hate uncertainty but as the fight over the presidential contest continues, investors couldn’t be happier.
If, as appears likely, Joe Biden wins, he will become the first president since George HW Bush to enter office without control of both the House and Senate – an outcome that indicates at least two years of legislative gridlock.
It’s a scenario Wall Street appears to love. One that may give Republicans in the Senate little incentive to enact a new, larger coronavirus stimulus package that Democrats have hoped for and the power to block tax increases, big spending programs and tougher regulations.
Stocks jumped again on Thursday, the first time since 1982 that the Dow and S&P 500 rose at least 1% on four straight sessions, giving the stock indices their biggest weekly gains since April, with the Dow up 7.1% week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 7.4% and 9% in the week to date.
Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, told the Guardian: “There’s definitely some relief that things like tougher tax policy, tougher corporate reforms look to be off the table without Democrats having more control over Congress.
“Essentially, it’s going to look more like a continuation of the status quo, which is the outcome favoured by most firms,” Jones added.
Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, attributed some of the gains to the election’s smooth running and, notwithstanding legal challenges, the likelihood of an imminent outcome.
Looking forward, McMillan told the Guardian, markets were encouraged by prospects that a Biden administration’s more progressive, high spending proposals are less likely to get through a politically split legislature.
“Biden’s economic plan included substantial new corporate taxes and capital gains taxes, all of which would have been very disruptive to the market,” McMillan said. “The risks from a blue wave and a Green New Deal are now off the table.”
Wharton professor of finance Jeremy Siegel also welcomed the result, even as the final outcome of the presidential election remained unresolved. “Truthfully that combination is excellent for the economy and it’s excellent for the markets,” Siegel told CNBC on Wednesday
Market enthusiasm for a split government has historical roots going back decades. In 2018, after voters handed control of the lower chamber to Democrats in the midterm elections, markets soared.
“The better-performing periods are periods where the houses were split in terms of leadership,” financial adviser Mellody Hobson noted at the time.
Since Tuesday, markets have also been buoyed by the prospect of government infrastructure spending that could also pump billions of taxpayer dollars into an overhaul of the nation’s energy and transportation systems.
For big tech, which is facing antitrust investigations under the Trump administration, the political scenario could also be rosy. Ahead of the election, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) stocks, in particular, showed jitters after months of impressive pandemic gains.
“The Street appears to have gotten the ‘Goldilocks election outcome’ for tech stocks with no ‘blue wave’ expected (Senate staying red) and a likely Biden White House now on the horizon,” said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities in an investors note on Thursday.
“With the Republicans likely to control the Senate, the chances of major legislative changes to antitrust law now is off the table in the eyes of investors which posed the biggest risks to tech stalwarts with a ripple impact across the sector,” Ives added.
Ives said the likely election outcome was a “green light to buy tech stocks” and predicted that big tech stocks could rally another 10% to 15% into year-end. “We continue to be bullish on owning the secular growth stories for 2021,” he wrote. More
Joe Biden, the US Democratic presidential challenger, has reached what appears to be a tipping point in the contest for the White House, taking the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia as the tally of postal ballots continued to skew heavily in the Democrat’s favour.
With a Biden victory looking assured, CNN reported that a “national defence airspace” would be established above the Democratic candidate’s house in Wilmington, Delaware, meaning he would begin to receive the protection of the US military, the first trappings of the presidency.
But a smooth transfer of power still looked far from certain. Donald Trump and a handful of loyalists continued to allege election fraud, without any evidence. Biden was reported to be seeking to rally prominent figures from both parties to endorse the legitimacy of the election, at a nervous moment for US democracy.
After whittling down a substantial lead for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on election night, Biden’s vote count passed the president just before 9am, building up a narrow edge of 6,737. Many of the roughly 130,000 votes yet to be counted in the state are in Democratic areas, and Democrats make up a disproportional share of postal ballots.
Winning Pennsylvania would also win the presidency, no matter what happens in the other states remaining undecided, but Biden also had the advantage there.
In the early hours of Friday morning in the US, Biden had moved to a 1,096-vote advantage in Georgia with thousands of ballots still left to be counted – many in counties where the former vice-president was in the lead.
The Georgia secretary of state reported late on Thursday there were about 10,000 ballots still to be counted in the state, a must-win for Trump in order to keep any chances of re-election alive in the race for the 270 electoral college votes that will determine the presidency.
Biden’s lead over Trump in the nationwide popular vote stretched to over 4m, as he amassed a record 73.7m, but the president’s tally of 69.7m was the second highest in US political history – reflecting the fact that while Trump seemed doomed to defeat, Trumpism will remain very much a force.
As Biden closed in on victory on Thursday night, he urged calm after an inflammatory and falsehood-filled Trump address from the White House where the president once again claimed he had won.
The latest voting figures accelerated increasingly frantic efforts by Trump and his campaign to undermine confidence in the election, threatening a rash of litigation amid unfounded claims of election rigging.
“This is a case when they are trying to steal an election, they are trying to rig an election,” Trump said from the podium of the White House briefing room.
“If you count the legal votes, I easily win, Trump wrongly claimed. “If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.
“If you count the votes that came in late, we’re looking at them very strongly, a lot of votes came in late,” he said.
Several TV networks cut away during his remarks, with anchors saying they needed to correct his statements. However, two loyalist senators, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Ted Cruz of Texas, appeared on Fox News to echo Trump’s claims, in the absence of evidence that illegal or late votes were being counted, or that the election is being stolen. Graham whose loyalty had been questioned on Twitter by the president’s son, Don Jr, pledged $500,000 towards the president’s legal fees.
Reports from inside the White House said the president had no plans to concede the election even after the votes are fully counted.
From his Delaware headquarters Biden sought to project national leadership, beginning his remarks by talking about the surging coronavirus infection rates, and appealed for patience with the electoral process, after it emerged the US Secret Service was sending extra officers to Delaware to join his security detail.
“I ask everyone to stay calm. The process is working,” Biden said. “It is the will of the voters – no one, not anyone else – who chooses the president of the United States of America.”
In the south-west, Biden maintains slim advantages in Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, his lead narrowed to about 47,000 early on Friday and in Nevada he was ahead by about 11,500 votes.
Trump had seen his lead steadily shrink in Georgia, a southern state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton in 1992, as officials worked through tens of thousands of uncounted votes, many from Democratic strongholds such as Atlanta.
While Biden’s victories in the upper midwest put him in a strong position, Trump showed no sign of giving up. He was back on Twitter at about 2.30am on Friday, insisting the “US Supreme Court should decide!”.
While many high-profile Republicans have not commented on Trump’s latest remarks, several GOP lawmakers denounced his baseless allegations about fraud, with Paul Mitchell, a Michigan congressman, saying that every vote would be counted, adding that “anything less harms the integrity of our elections and is dangerous for our democracy”.
Adam Kinzinger, an Illinois GOP congressman, tweeted: “Stop spreading debunked misinformation … This is getting insane.” More
Donald Trump has claimed, without evidence, ‘If you count the legal votes, I easily win’, declaring victory again in a presidential election where votes are still being counted. Trump’s comments come after rival Joe Biden urged Americans to stay calm as the result remains unconfirmed. In remarks made at the White House, Trump falsely referred to legally-cast mail-in ballots as illegitimate, and made unsubstantiated claims pollsters got results ‘knowingly wrong’ and the election is being stolen
US election live: TV networks cut away as Trump lies again about result
Trump doubles down on false election result claims as Biden calls for calm More
Key events
Show
9.39pm EST21:39
Georgia is a virtual tie
9.18pm EST21:18
Trump lead in Georgia and Pennsylvania shrinks
9.09pm EST21:09
Biden’s lead in Arizona shrinks further as Maricopa county releases more results
8.32pm EST20:32
Steve Bannon suspended from Twitter, faces YouTube removal after urging violence against US officials
8.20pm EST20:20
Federal judge denies Trump motion to stop counting votes in Philadelphia
8.01pm EST20:01
When will we know the US election result?
7.58pm EST19:58
Welcome to the Guardian’s live election coverage
Live feed
Show
9.59pm EST21:59
On Fox News, the Republican senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz have been spreading the president’s false narrative that the election is being stolen from him.
Cruz, a Republican of Texas, baselessly alleged – as the president has done – that election officials are “finding” votes. In fact, they are counting votes. “Whenever they shut the doors and turn out the light they always find more Democratic votes,” Cruz said.
Cruz and Fox News’ Sean Hannity wrongly claimed that Republican observers were not allowed to watch the counting. The Trump campaign’s own lawyer admitted in a federal court that Republican observers were given access, as my colleague Sam Levine pointed out earlier today:
Sam Levine
(@srl)
The issue with observers in Philadelphia is over how close observers can get, not whether they are allowed into facility. Trump attorney just conceded in federal court the campaign has access. https://t.co/MaHCRybtRW
November 5, 2020
Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator of South Carolina, told Hannity, “I trust Arizona, I don’t trust Philadelphia.” While Trump is closing the gap in Arizona, he’s losing ground in Pennsylvania as officials in both states continue to count ballots.
9.58pm EST21:58
Sam Levin
Update on Steve Bannon, the former Trump adviser who called for violence against US officials:
A spokesperson for YouTube told the Guardian the video was removed for “violating our policy against inciting violence”, and that the account received a “strike”. (After three strikes, it would be terminated.)
Bannon is also banned from uploading new content for at least a week. Alex Joseph, the YouTube spokesperson, added, “We will continue to be vigilant as we enforce our policies in the post-election period.” Twitter permanently suspended his account.
Read more on Bannon:
Updated
at 10.02pm EST
9.57pm EST21:57
Oliver Laughland reports from Florida:
I was in Miami, at an impromptu rally organized by the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of Florida when Donald Trump delivered his White House remarks.
The rally was one of four “Stop the Biden Steel” events being held simultaneously in the state (a reference to baseless claims of voter fraud perpetuated by the president), and counted about 150 Trump supporters lined up in a car park by a roadside restaurant. Organizers placed a large speaker on the back of a truck, nestled by a yellow sign that read: “Stop Fraud”. Attendees listened, almost silently, as Trump espoused baseless claims in an attempt to undermine the outcome of the election.
“Four more years!” They chanted after Trump finished.
Shortly after the speech, Enrique Tarrio, chairman of the Proud Boys and state director of Latinos for Trump, addressed the crowd, pushing more baseless conspiracies about the election. The Proud Boys are a far right organization with links to white supremacy.
“I want to ask you guys to stay in these streets,” he told the crowd after informing them he was traveling to Michigan on Friday, a state that has been a hotbed of militia activity in recent months. He then led the crowd in a chant of “Whose streets? Our streets!” – a common refrain of street protests around the world.
In a short interview with the Guardian afterwards, he labelled this reporter “fake news” and continued to push baseless allegations of election fraud.
9.49pm EST21:49
There are about 250,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania.
Biden is trailing by just under 49,000 votes. He’s been winning the mail-in ballot counts by huge margins, and could very well take the state.
Pennsylvania backed Trump in the 2016 presidential election, but voted for the Democratic candidate in 2012, 2008, 2004 and 2000. Trump needs the state’s 20 electoral votes to win.
Updated
at 9.57pm EST
9.39pm EST21:39
Georgia is a virtual tie
Trump is ahead by just 1,902 votes. The two candidates are tied at 49.4% each. More
Joe Biden urged calm across the US on Thursday night as he held on to a lead against Donald Trump that brought the Democratic challenger tantalisingly close to the presidency – even as votes were still being counted in a handful of critical states.
Facing possible defeat after one term, Trump from the White House appeared to dig in for a long fight, falsely claiming: “If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.
“If you count the votes that came in late, we’re looking at them very strongly, a lot of votes came in late,” he said, in a tone that seemed calculated to inflame divisions. There was no evidence that illegal or late votes were being counted, nor that the election was being stolen.
Trump went on to rail against “historic election interference from big media, big money and big tech … The pollsters got it knowingly wrong.”
Biden and his running mate, the California senator Kamala Harris, on the other hand had emerged in Biden’s home state of Delaware, telling the country that “each ballot must be counted.
“In America, the vote is sacred,” Biden said. “Democracy is sometimes messy. It sometimes requires a little patience, as well. But that patience has been rewarded now for 240 years with a system of governance that’s been the envy of the world.”
Biden noted he and Harris “continue to feel very good” about the ultimate result of the race. “We have no doubt that when the count is finished, Senator Harris and I will be declared the winners,” Biden said.
As the country remained on edge, awaiting the declaration of a victory almost 48 hours after the polls had closed and as sporadic protests have broken out in places such as Arizona, Michigan, Portland and New York, Biden said: “I ask everyone to stay calm.”
While many high-profile Republicans have not commented on Trump’s latest falsehoods, several GOP lawmakers denounced his baseless allegations about fraud, with Paul Mitchell, a Michigan congressman, saying that every vote would be counted, adding that “anything less harms the integrity of our elections and is dangerous for our democracy”. Adam Kinzinger, an Illinois GOP congressman, tweeted: “STOP Spreading debunked misinformation… This is getting insane.”
Three major TV networks also cut away from the president’s live remarks due to the avalanche of lies, with news anchors saying it was “dangerous” to air his “absolutely untrue” statements.
The White House was set to be decided by razor-thin margins in five battleground states. Trump was still holding on to leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia but Biden was rapidly narrowing the gap in the two states as a backlog of postal ballots was counted. A win in Pennsylvania alone, with its 20 votes in the electoral college, would be enough to make Biden president. More
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JOE
BIDEN
264
electoral college votes
73,417,252 votes
DONALD
TRUMP
electoral college votes
69,588,797 votes
214
73,417,252 votes
69,588,797 votes
How does the election work?
Live coverage / Biden and Trump virtually tied in key state of Georgia
!
No winner has been declared yet
Millions of votes are still to be counted, including in key battleground states. In addition, AP has called Arizona’s 11 votes for Biden while other news organisations regard the race as still too close to call
Which states haven’t been called yet?
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Every vote counts, so we’re counting every vote
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Which states haven’t been called yet?
This table shows an estimate for the amount of votes remaining to be counted in each state where the winner is not yet known, and the number of votes separating the current leading candidate from the second-placed party (the margin). Taken together the two things suggest how much scope there is for the positions to change in the final count.
State
Votes left to count (est.)
Current margin
Current leader
%
votes
Georgia
1%
50,000
+1,902
Trump
North Carolina
6%
348,000
+76,701
Trump
Pennsylvania
10%
732,000
+41,118
Trump
Nevada
16%
233,000
+11,438
Biden
Alaska
50%
191,000
+54,610
Trump
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Key states to watch
The race for the presidency is usually decided in a small number of key battleground states that switch party allegiance between elections.
Democrats
Republicans
Georgia
16 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
99%
Polls closed 2 days ago
Est. vote count
99%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Donald Trump
2,447,223
49.4%
Joe Biden
2,445,321
49.4%
Jo Jorgensen
61,265
1.2%
Why does it matter?
Long a Republican stronghold, southern Georgia has recently become more of a battleground state due to its growing black electorate. In the 2018 governor’s election, Republican Brian Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams by just 1.4 percentage points.
North Carolina
15 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
94%
Polls closed 2 days ago
Est. vote count
94%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Donald Trump
2,732,084
50.1%
Joe Biden
2,655,383
48.7%
Jo Jorgensen
47,215
0.9%
Why does it matter?
Historically Republican-leaning, North Carolina has become increasingly competitive in recent years. The state’s recent voting patterns mirror a national trend towards more polarisation, with cities swinging further towards the Democrats and rural areas towards the Republicans.
Pennsylvania
20 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
90%
Polls closed 2 days ago
Est. vote count
90%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Donald Trump
3,278,490
49.7%
Joe Biden
3,237,372
49.1%
Jo Jorgensen
75,745
1.1%
Why does it matter?
Pennsylvania was one of the largest states to swing to Trump in the 2016 election. He won the state by a margin of just 0.7 percentage points, turning it Republican for the first time since 1992.
Nevada
6 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
84%
Polls closed 2 days ago
Est. vote count
84%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Joe Biden
604,251
49.4%
Donald Trump
592,813
48.5%
Jo Jorgensen
11,647
1%
Why does it matter?
Nevada’s population has grown rapidly in the past two decades, as has the share of Latino, Black and Asian American voters in the state. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Nevada by a margin of 2.4 percentage points.
Florida
29 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
99%
Winner called 2 days ago
Est. vote count
99%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Donald Trump
5,658,690
51.2%
Joe Biden
5,284,377
47.9%
Jo Jorgensen
70,043
0.6%
Why does it matter?
Florida has voted with the eventual winner in all but one presidential election since 1964. It is also the swing state with the largest population and the most electoral college votes.
Michigan
16 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
99%
Winner called a day ago
Est. vote count
99%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Joe Biden
2,791,549
50.6%
Donald Trump
2,646,423
47.9%
Jo Jorgensen
60,343
1.1%
Why does it matter?
Trump won Michigan by just 0.2 percentage points in 2016 – the narrowest margin of any state. In the six elections prior, the state consistently voted Democratic.
Wisconsin
10 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
99%
Winner called a day ago
Est. vote count
99%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Joe Biden
1,630,542
49.6%
Donald Trump
1,609,734
48.9%
Jo Jorgensen
38,414
1.2%
Why does it matter?
Wisconsin sided with the Democratic candidate in all presidential elections from 1988 through 2012, although sometimes by very narrow margins. In 2016, Trump managed to flip the state despite his underdog status in the polls.
Ohio
18 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
96%
Winner called 2 days ago
Est. vote count
96%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Donald Trump
3,074,418
53.4%
Joe Biden
2,603,731
45.2%
Jo Jorgensen
65,069
1.1%
Why does it matter?
Ohio is one of the largest swing states in the midwest, and it has sided with the eventual election winner for decades. Trump won the state by a margin of over eight points in 2016.
Arizona
11 electoral college votes
Est. vote count
90%
Winner called 2 days ago
Est. vote count
90%
Candidate
Votes
Percent
Joe Biden
1,528,319
50.1%
Donald Trump
1,482,062
48.5%
Jo Jorgensen
42,753
1.4%
Why does it matter?
Arizona last voted Democratic for President in 1996, but the state has become increasingly competitive as the Hispanic share of the electorate has grown. The Democrats managed to gain a number of seats in the 2018 midterms here.
More key states
Who is controlling Congress?
Americans are also electing members to the two chambers of Congress, the main law-making body of the US. Those chambers are the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Without support in the Senate and the House, the president’s ability to enact key policies is severely limited.
SENATE
Democrats*
48
+1
Republicans
-1
48
31 of 35 races called
* Includes 2 independents
HOUSE
Democrats
208
-5
Republicans
+6
193
401 of 435 races called
Full Senate and House results
How does the election work?
The winner of the election is determined through a system called the electoral college. Each of the 50 states, plus Washington DC, is given a number of electoral college votes, adding up to a total of 538 votes. More populous states get more electoral college votes than smaller ones.
A candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes (50% plus one) to win the election.
In every state except two – Maine and Nebraska – the candidate that gets the most votes wins all of the state’s electoral college votes.
Due to these rules, a candidate can win the election without getting the most votes at the national level. This happened at the last election, in which Donald Trump won a majority of electoral college votes although more people voted for Hillary Clinton across the US.
How are the results reported?
The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press (AP). AP “call” the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.
Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.
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