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    Pennsylvania: the battleground state most likely to take entire election with it

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    In a presidential race with an extraordinary number of moving parts, election day finds Pennsylvania under intensifying scrutiny as the place where it could all come together – or fall spectacularly apart.
    The state and its 20 electoral college votes are sitting at the center of a perfect storm. Polls show one of the tightest races among the battleground states between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Models project Pennsylvania as the state most likely, when it tips, to take the entire election with it.
    The state also overhauled its election laws last year and is allowing no-excuse mail-in voting for the first time. There could be as many as 10 times as many mail-in votes as there were in 2016, Kathy Boockvar, the state’s top election official, said on Sunday.
    Pennsylvania law also prohibits election officials from processing mail-in ballots until election day, which means it could take days to know the winner in the state, leaving a window for Trump to claim victory before all the votes are counted. Boockvar has said she’s confident the majority of votes will be counted by Friday.
    It’s possible that the entire national election could encounter a physical bottleneck in Philadelphia, the state’s most populous city. Every mail-in ballot in the city – as many as 400,000 – is to be counted inside a cavernous convention center downtown using new equipment and newly trained staff observing social distancing measures. More

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    Lady Gaga attacks Trump's 'grab' remarks at Joe Biden rally

    Lady Gaga gave an impassioned message of support for Joe Biden as America heads to the polls, making reference to Donald Trump’s history of crude sexual remarks and alleged sexual assaults.“Vote like your life depends on it, or vote like your children’s lives depends on it, because they do,” she told a rally in Pennsylvania. “Everybody, no matter how you identify, now is your chance to vote against Donald Trump, a man who believes his fame gives him the right to grab one of your daughters, or sisters, or mothers or wives by any part of their bodies … Vote for Joe. He’s a good person.”Her words referred to Trump’s infamous 2005 boast that “when you’re a star, they let you do it … Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything”.Trump referred to Gaga at his own Pennsylvania rally, saying she “is not too good … I could tell you stories about Lady Gaga. I know a lot of stories.”On Sunday, Trump’s communications director Tim Murtagh tweeted: “Nothing exposes Biden’s disdain for the forgotten working men & women of PA like campaigning with anti-fracking activist Lady Gaga. This desperate effort to drum up enthusiasm is actually a sharp stick in the eye for 600,000 Pennsylvanians who work in the fracking industry.” Gaga responded: “I’m glad to be living rent free in your head.”At his Pennsylvania rally, Trump also criticised Jon Boni Jovi, Jay-Z, and LeBron James, who won the 2020 NBA championship with the LA Lakers in October. “I didn’t watch one shot, I got bored, back forth, back forth,” Trump said. “You know why? When they don’t respect our country, when they don’t respect our flag, nobody wants to watch”, a reference to the kneeling protests James and his team made on their return in July.James later endorsed Biden on Instagram, saying: “We need everything to change and it all starts tomorrow.” More

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    Obama compares Trump to a 'two-bit dictator' who lies ‘every single day' – video

    Former US president Barack Obama has criticised Donald Trump for casting doubt on the results of the election, likening him to strongmen elsewhere in the world. Addressing a drive-in rally in Miami on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s behalf, Obama said his successor has suggested he may declare victory before all the votes are counted. ‘That’s something a two-bit dictator does,’ Obama said. The former president also accused Trump of ‘lying every single day … the fact-checkers can’t keep up, it’s like, just over and over again’
    US election 2020: Obama accuses Trump of ‘lying every single day’ at Florida rally for Biden – live More

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    How millions of new voters could shape the US election

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    If the polling is correct, Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. But four years ago, the polling was wrong – so if we want to understand the political future of the country, it’s important to look to more reliable sources of information than just the polls.
    And to look at some voter groups that could be important.
    The early voting data is valuable
    Early voting data is an important place to start. There is no doubt that at least 97 million votes have already been cast – those have been counted and are far more precise than any survey. And because those numbers are so high, we can predict that overall turnout is likely to break records.
    In Texas, so many early votes have been cast that the current ballot count is equal to at least 108% of all the votes counted in the state in 2016.
    This early voting data is much more valuable than simple polling because we also have information about party registration. So we can say with a high degree of confidence that most early votes have been cast for the Democratic party (assuming that people have not suddenly and dramatically made recent changes in their political affiliations).
    Based on the 20 states where party ID information was available, almost half (45%) of the votes reported as of Monday afternoon had come from people registered with the Democratic party and 31% had come from registered Republicans. This is consistent with previous elections, where Democrats have been much more likely to cast early ballots.
    A global pandemic and concerns about voter suppression have encouraged many to vote early and avoid the potential crowds and confusion on Tuesday. But these numbers are so high that they can’t be explained simply by regular voters casting their ballots early. In fact, of those that have already voted, about 24 million (a quarter of the ballots) are from people who did not vote in 2016 and 8 million (8%) are from people who are voting for the first time.
    In other words, turnout is increasing because non-voters are showing up.
    Non-voters turning out now are a powerful force
    Not least because of his handling of the pandemic crisis, Trump has been having problems with two important demographic groups – seniors and suburban women, polls have suggested. “I saved your suburbs – women – suburban women, you’re supposed to love Trump,” he said at one rally in Muskegon, Michigan.
    But perhaps the most important group are those who have not voted until this election. In 2016, 41% of adults who were eligible to vote did not do so. If “did not vote” had been a political party, it would have swept the country, winning all but eight states and DC. So, if we want to better understand what is going to happen on Tuesday, we need to take a closer look at non-voters.
    People who do not vote in US presidential elections are younger than those who do, according to survey data gathered by Pew Research Center after the 2016 election … More

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    America prepares to deliver its verdict after Trump replays 2016 campaign

    The crowd was small at first. But as the night wore on, the numbers grew and so did belief in miracles. In the early hours of 9 November 2016, Donald Trump and family walked into the ballroom of a midtown Manhattan hotel to celebrate one of the greatest political upsets of all time.“Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division – have to get together,” the new president-elect said. “To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people.”The speech is now all the more striking because, in the view of countless critics, Trump spent the next four years doing precisely the opposite. His norm-busting presidency deepened divisions, poured oil on flames, stress tested institutions to breaking point and rendered truth itself a partisan issue.And on Tuesday, millions of Americans will deliver their verdict in a referendum on Trump’s first term, after a bitterly fought election campaign that has left the nation with even deeper wounds than those exposed four years ago.Trump’s opponent, former vice-president Joe Biden, has left the president trailing in every major national opinion poll since becoming Democrats’ presumptive nominee in April. Biden commands a bigger lead over Trump, nationally and in several crucial battleground states, than the ill-fated Hillary Clinton did at the same stage in 2016.Yet the stunning repudiation of the political establishment that year has left Democrats haunted. There is little sign of complacency in the Biden camp amid the profound uncertainties of an election campaign waged against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, and fears that the incumbent will seek to declare victory prematurely and prevent every vote being counted.As both candidates spent Monday in a final frenzied sprint across battleground states, Trump was in trouble. Past incumbents have successfully made elections about not themselves but their opponents. George W Bush shifted the spotlight to challenger John Kerry. Barack Obama did likewise to Mitt Romney. But this president’s profligate and shambolic campaign could neither escape the pandemic nor find a way to define Biden. It is still all about Trump. More

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    Feeling powerless? How foreigners can survive the US election without complete nervous collapse | Van Badham

    There are only 24 hours to go until the polls close on the American election. Which is surprising, because the campaign feels like it has been going for eleventy-million-billion years.Americans, at least, get to vote. For the rest of the world, the whole experience is like waking up in a cinema that only shows The Fast and the Furious movies, and all of the exits are sealed shut with cement.We’ve been stuck in here with loud noises, annoying characters and zero plot development for months, eating the curtains for food and desperately hoping it all comes to an end without actual loss of life. Or, you know, a massively increased prospect of nuclear war.What it’s like to be trapped in America’s version of that cinema right now is unimaginable. Circumstances suggest it’d involve a lot of audience members holding guns, cheers ringing out whenever stupid lines are delivered and way too much coughing for anyone to feel comfortable.Elections in other countries universally elicit two responses from those foreign to them: “She seems nice” or “That’s a worry.” Jacinda Ardern may have transformed New Zealand into the world’s idea of Magical Happy Hug Land, but in their last election how many internationals were furiously scanning weighted polling averages at 2am because Wairarapa seemed too close to call?Now, millions of us around the world recently sport what I call the “FiveThirtyEight Pallor” – a face-bound, sleepless waxiness that results from relentlessly refreshing US poll sites to see if there’s any projected movement in Maine’s second district. Vast hordes of non-farming, non-Americans now intimately familiar with the price of soybeans in Iowa is a terrifying symptom of these anxious times.Is there a way for powerless, poll-watching foreigners to get through the next 24 hours – and the aftermath – without complete nervous collapse? Probably not. But let’s delude ourselves into thinking that we can follow the below advice and go through this with a sense of calm.1. We must admit to ourselves we are powerless over the US, and to think otherwise will make our lives unmanageableAs much as you may want scream HOW CAN YOU VOTE FOR THIS LARGE ORANGE CLOWN to Americans visible on Twitter, don’t. This very publication is haunted by the failure of “Operation Clark County” back in 2004, where British Guardian readers wrote letters of persuasion to a swing district of American voters, requesting politely they not vote for George W Bush. “Real Americans aren’t interested in your pansy-ass, tea-sipping opinions” began one of the gentler replies.2. Prepare American-themed delicacies for the occasionIf you’re short on time, grab some traditional spray cheese-in-a-can or some Twinkies, but to really immerse yourself for the US election, follow the YouTube directions to whip up a Flamin’ Hot Cheeto Turkey with all the trimmings. Then, don’t eat this food; stare at it. Stare at the thick, plastic cheesiness. The sugary crustiness. The holy-god-how-is-any-of-this-still-legally-considered-food heart-endangering carbohydration of it all and ask yourself both a) does Britain really want a trade deal with these people? and b) is doing this to human food in any way culturally understandable to you? No. No, it isn’t. Do you think you can intuit their political choices now? No. No, you can’t.3. Don’t watch Fox News coverageThere are those who believe that Fox is some kind of foul, relentless rightwing propaganda hydra managed by a clan of vampiric undead that wilfully spreads lethal misinformation for fun. This is not true. It’s actually a sophisticated marketing operation for mass sales of anti-anxiety medication that no one needs until they watch one single uninterrupted minute of its programming. Save your money, and your cardiovascular health: avoid.4. Believe the polls: it’s not 2016 any moreThe 2016 election was a confluence of black swan events: an unpredictable Republican campaign, a polarising Democratic candidate, dark digital operations, WikiLeaks-dumped cache of stolen correspondence, and the FBI’s improbable decision to reopen the dead investigation into Clinton’s emails collided with outdated polling techniques. This year, poll techniques are updated, and as much as the Republicans are trying to make Hunter Biden’s laptop happen, it’s not going to happen.5. Don’t believe the polls, have you forgotten 2016?Remember the surety everyone had on election day morning that Clinton would be president by night-time and the tiny-pawed tangerine vagina-grabber would be left hustling for gigs on celebrity baking shows and charity golf events? By midnight we were coiled in foetal balls on the living room floor in shock, our cold hands begging for the comfort of a security blanket, or at least a wizard companion to guide us through a new, dark and terrifying realm.6. Vacuum the living room floor. Locate a security blanket. Order a wizardUS polling website Fivethirtyeight.com still gives the carrot-coloured super-spreader a 10% chance of victory.There’s one thing we know about The Fast and the Furious. Just when you think that the franchise is finally finished is when you’ll find out they’re making a sequel. More

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    US braces for historic election amid fears democracy is in danger

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    Americans are bracing for an election day unlike any in US history, shadowed by threats of manipulation and violence, stoking fears that democracy itself is at stake when the polls close on Tuesday night.
    It marks the end of a campaign that has been unprecedented in many ways. More than 94 million Americans had already cast their ballots by Monday, a record for early voting, in the midst of a pandemic. It was equivalent to 70% of the 2016 turnout even before election day dawned.
    It is also the first election in which the incumbent president has said he would try to stop the vote count if early returns on election night show him to be ahead and has openly encouraged acts of intimidation by his supporters.
    On Monday, a high “non-scalable” fence, last seen during the Black Lives Matter protests over the summer, was being erected around the White House. In anticipation of unrest, businesses in Washington and major city centres across the country boarded up their windows. The DC business district advised residents to “take precautions such as securing outdoor furniture and signage that can be used as a projectile”.
    A poll by USA Today and Suffolk University found that three out of four voters were worried about possible violence, with only a quarter of the electorate “very confident” there would be a peaceful transfer of power if the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, won the election.
    Delivering his closing message on the last day of the campaign, Biden repeated his campaign message that the election was a “battle for the soul of the nation”.
    “The character of America is literally on the ballot,” he said at a drive-in rally in Cleveland, Ohio. “It’s time to take back our democracy.”
    On his final campaign stops, Trump has sought to portray his opponent’s future response to the coronavirus pandemic as a dystopian lockdown that would stifle economic and social life.
    “The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down, while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn,” he told a rally in Iowa.
    The air of apprehension has been deepened by repeated threats from Trump that he would seek to portray all votes not counted by election night as illegitimate. He said “we are going in with our lawyers” as soon as voting closes.
    Vote-counting routinely continues for days and sometimes weeks after a US election, but the result is usually called by news agencies based on projections from incomplete counts. That is less likely to be possible this time because of the heavy early and postal voting. More