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    Latest election polls show Biden ahead but race tightening in key states

    Joe Biden is still favoured to win Tuesday’s presidential election, according to the final opinion polls, but a tightening race in several key states offers Donald Trump rising hopes of a pathway back to the White House.
    The Democratic candidate holds a significant lead in national polling, at anywhere between four and 10 percentage points, according to a cluster of polls released on Monday. The poll aggregator fivethirty.eight.com shows Biden with an 8.3-point advantage overall, while Real Clear Politics reflects a lead of 6.5.
    But the Republican president is performing better in some of the battleground states he must win to secure a second term.
    In Florida, largest of the handful of crucial swing states, Trump has cut Biden’s lead to a single point, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Analysts agree that Trump must retain Florida, which he won from Hillary Clinton by only 1.2 points in 2016, and its 29 electoral college votes if he is to stand any chance of reaching the winning figure of 270.
    Florida also offers Biden the cleanest and quickest path to victory. Early votes in the state will be tallied through the day on Tuesday, meaning a declaration is possible before midnight if the race is not too close.
    If Biden loses Florida, attention will turn to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three so-called Blue Wall states that Trump prised from Democratic hands four years ago.

    In Pennsylvania, which offers 20 electoral votes, Biden holds an average 4.2-point advantage. In Michigan, with 16 votes, his lead is 5.1 points, and in Wisconsin, which has 10 votes, it is 6.6 points. Victory in all three, plus the retention of states won by Clinton in 2016, would see Biden elected as the 46th president. However, margins of error built into opinion polling mean such races are probably tighter than they appear.
    Democrats are also wary as polls released just before the 2016 election showed Clinton with a similar national advantage over Trump. She won the popular vote by more than 3m ballots, but defeat in several battleground states handed the White House to Trump.
    On Monday, Trump and Biden spent the final day of campaigning in such vital states. Biden was heading to Pennsylvania for a rally after a stopover in Ohio, where polls show he trails Trump by a sliver. Barack Obama, the former president, was rallying for Biden in Florida. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, was also in Pennsylvania, underlining the state’s importance.
    Trump was barnstorming four states in his final push for victory. After a midnight rally in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, the president was heading for North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and two appearances in Michigan. More

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    US election set to be £1bn betting event with Biden firm favourite

    The 2020 US election is shaping up to be the biggest betting event of all time, with one player placing a record-breaking £1m bet on a victory for the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.People were still rushing to place bets on Monday on the eve of the election and Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting at Ladbrokes Coral Group, said it estimated about £1bn would be wagered globally across the industry. Donald Trump’s odds of re-election grew slightly over the weekend, but Biden remained a clear favourite in online betting markets. Betters on the British exchange Smarkets give Biden a 65% chance of winning, while Trump’s prospects have improved to 35% from 34%.Betfair said it also recorded an improvement in Trump’s odds, at the same level. One person had placed £1m on Biden, Betfair said, in the biggest political bet of all time. If Biden wins, the player will bag £1.54m.The former vice-president has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is slightly closer in the battleground states that are likely to decide the race.“Florida is one where the polls suggest Biden is the more likely winner, but the [betting] markets have Trump as favourite [there],” Shaddick said. “The GOP have tended to overperform the polls quite regularly in that state.”The election is on track to be by far the biggest betting event, with £271m bet so far, Betfair said. Most of the big-money betting occurs outside the US as betting on politics is illegal there. More

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    Breaking Down the Un-United States

    As I casually went through my daily press review, I came across one of those articles that paint Joe Biden as the future redeemer of the United States. I couldn’t resist the urge of commenting, even if that meant breaking the rule I had set for myself to remain a passive observer.

    My comment questioned the physical and intellectual abilities of Uncle Joe, and the paranoid Facebook users didn’t wait, calling me a “Russian Troll” and reporting me for potential foreign meddling in US politics. I am neither a Russian hacker nor a Donald Trump supporter, but this small incident shows the extent of suspicion, tension and polarization preceding the US presidential election on November 3.

    360° Context: The 2020 US Election Explained

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    The United States of America — which has been the sole hegemon of the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and a crusader for democracy in several areas across the globe, notably in the Middle East — is actually not a democracy itself. With its bipartisan structure, the country is actually a biocracy where two big blocs dominate the political sphere. A classical binary of Democrats vs. Republicans that obstructs any new thoughts or movements from penetrating the system.

    Democrats encapsulate a big range of liberals, sexual and religious minorities, feminists, migrants and progressive ideologies, and they usually adopt a softer approach to foreign policy. On the other hand, Republicans are advocates of traditional family values, pro-life, the constitutional right of owning weapons, conservative beliefs and a more belligerent foreign policy.

    The peril of biocracies is the high risk of radicalization of the two poles in cases of deep social unrest or economic crisis, leaving the society in a Manichean dystopia. And this is exactly what is happening today in America.

    A Pre-Civil War Climate

    The extreme polarization of the political discourse across the layers of American society forces citizens into an impossible either-or logic that divides the country into two conflicting factions with a completely different set of values, visions and perceptions of reality. For external observers, this may even be symptomatic of pre-civil war climates. Narrow political calculations continue to feed fissures rather than concord, as if both the donkey (Democratic) and the elephant (Republican) parties are determined to disrupt social cohesion and destroy institutions for the sake of electoral gains.

    Embed from Getty Images

    The media are undeniably aggravating the crisis. With the constant insolence of the current president to correspondents, many iconic staples of US journalism decided to breach their pact of neutrality and declared themselves as anti-Trump militants. Outlets like The New York Times and CNN have even campaigned openly for certain candidates as a first in a school of journalism that has been praising itself for its impartiality and distance from partisan agendas. In February 2017, The Washington Post introduced a new slogan below its online masthead: “Democracy Dies in Darkness.” In this case, it willingly ignored that darkness also means a politicized, subjective and biased press.

    One thing is for sure: Both presidential candidates are white, septuagenarian males who are equally uncharismatic, incompetent abominations. One is a populist reality-TV show clown with an obsession for posting blunt Twitter statements and making provocative, racist and sexist comments. The other is a demented “serial massager” with clear cognitive failure, doubtful links with Ukrainian oligarchs and whose only virtue is being Barack Obama’s wingman. Sometimes, I feel both parties are intentionally sabotaging themselves by presenting their worst contenders, or maybe it is another application of American chaos theory but domestically this time.

    Hawaiian Shirts and Cabal Vampires

    New trends are on the rise after this year’s Black Lives Matter protests and the calls to defund the police. Armed militias like a movement called the Boogaloo Boys started to appear during demonstrations armed to the teeth and wearing colorful Hawaiian shirts. This far-right, anti-government and extremist political group is not the only one. On the opposing side, we could observe organized armed African-Americans and violent Antifa activists. Limited instances of mutual provocations and incidents took place over the past few months between the two factions, but things could escalate fast at any occasion due the explosive mix of anger, historical baggage and firearms. 

    Another worrying phenomenon is the proliferation of conspiracy theories online. QAnon is the biggest online and offline umbrella movement that has boomed amid the COVID-19 crisis. Its followers believe that President Trump is a biblical savior sent to combat a shadow organization constituted of “Satan-worshiping pedophiles who are plotting against Mr. Trump while operating a global child sex-trafficking ring.” This mother of all theories then breaks into several tentacular sub-theories like 5G harms, human control through nanochips, alien and subterranean invasions, Bill Gates’ population control, NASA’s flat Earth lies and world leaders consuming minors’ blood, among more absurd and amusing conspiracies.

    Social media platforms, including YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, carried major crackdowns on accounts, groups and content promoting “the great American awakening.” Censorship is only aggravating the situation, promoting a single narrative and providing more reasons for conspiracies to flourish and become mainstream to the extent that many Republican politicians are publicly QAnon supporters. Some even call it a new religion. Add to the mix digital meddling and social engineering by Russian, Chinese and Iranian hackers and you will understand why I am being called a troll for expressing an unpopular opinion.

    French philosopher and lawyer Joseph de Maistre used to say, “Every nation gets the government it deserves.” That dictum does not apply to large portions of American society. A country that is a melting pot of ideas, innovations, hard work and diversity, and which cannot be reduced to its despicable leadership. Unfortunately, in politics, you only hear the loudest voices while much of the population lays in the center, silently observing the two clashing poles in horror as they un-unite the United States.

    The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy. More

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    Donald Trump tries to stoke fears of Covid lockdown under Joe Biden

    In the final hours before election day, one of Donald Trump’s closing messages to Americans is an exaggerated threat: that a Joe Biden presidency will result in a national Covid-19 lockdown.
    Speaking in Iowa on Sunday, the president said the election was a “choice between a deadly Biden lockdown … or a safe vaccine that ends the pandemic”.
    Coronavirus cases are surging in the US and most battleground states are particularly badly affected. On Friday, the total case count surpassed 9m while the daily count set a new world record, at about 100,000. On Sunday 81,493 new cases were reported, according to Johns Hopkins University, and 447 new deaths. Nearly 231,000 people have died.
    In Iowa, painting a dark and dystopian vision, Trump told a crowd of closely packed supporters, many not wearing masks: “The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down, while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn.”
    That came after he told a rally in Pennsylvania, another swing state, there would be “no school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgivings, no Christmas, no Easters, no Fourth of Julys” under a Biden administration.
    In an interview in August, Biden was asked if he would shut the US down if scientists said he should do so. He said: “I would shut it down. I would listen to the scientists.” Biden has since clarified that he was referring to whether he would follow advice, saying: “There’s going to be no need, in my view, to be able to shut down the whole economy.”
    In October, Biden said: “I don’t think there’s a need to lock down.”
    If national and battleground state polling proves accurate and he wins on Tuesday, Biden has pledged to introduce a “Beat Covid-19” plan that includes a national mask mandate, a $25bn vaccine plan guaranteeing free access to every American, improved test-and-trace efforts, and help for schools and small businesses.
    On Sunday, he told a drive-in event in Philadelphia: “The truth is, to beat the virus, we first have to beat Donald Trump – he is the virus!”
    The former vice-president added: “When America is heard, I believe the message is going to be clear: It’s time for Donald Trump to pack his bags and go home. We’re done with the chaos, the tweets, the anger, the hate.”
    Trump has repeated his anti-lockdown message across his social media accounts and campaign ads.
    [embedded content]
    On Twitter, he wrote: “Biden wants to LOCKDOWN our Country, maybe for years. Crazy!” A campaign ad, entitled “Don’t let Joe Biden lock down our economy”, places footage from the August interview when Biden said he would shut down if scientists advised alongside news footage from lockdowns in Europe and scenes of protest.
    With very few voters still undecided, Larry Sabato, director of the Centre for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Trump’s approach was not about converting voters – rather it is about “revving up his base”.
    “He is depending on a tremendous turnout tomorrow, and he may get it,” Sabato told the Guardian. “The whole point of it is to remind voters, or the voters remaining, that Trump’s ace card is the economy, and that he’s determined to restore it – even if it means, frankly, more infections and deaths.
    “He’s made a clear choice and Biden has chosen the other path, which is to do what Europe’s doing – not necessarily a complete lockdown, but a substantial lockdown and a mask mandate, all the things that Trump and his supporters won’t like. He’s trying to rev them up. And they’re revved up.”

    Citing recent incidents in Texas, where Trump supporters appeared to try to force a Biden campaign bus off the road, and in New York and New Jersey on Sunday, when hundreds of cars flying Trump flags blocked traffic, Sabato said: “It’s shocking, really. We’ve never had anything like this … it just suggests what’s going to happen if he [Trump] loses.”
    At a midnight rally in Florida, Trump threatened to fire Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert. To chants of “fire Fauci”, he said: “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election. I appreciate the advice. I appreciate it.”In an interview with the Washington Post, Fauci said the US should prepare for “a whole lot of hurt” and predicted a winter of 100,000-plus cases a day and more deaths.
    “It’s not a good situation,” he said. “All the stars are aligned in the wrong place as you go into the fall and winter season, with people congregating at home indoors. You could not possibly be positioned more poorly.” More

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    US election 2020: Trump threatens to fire Fauci as Harris warns over nation's 'moral direction' – live

    Key events

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    10.22am EST10:22
    Trump again says supporters in Texas caravan ‘did nothing wrong’

    8.39am EST08:39
    Coronavirus surging in every key swing state as voters head to polls – ABC News

    6.22am EST06:22
    Poll: Biden holds 5-point to 7-point lead over Trump in crucial state of Pennsylvania

    5.40am EST05:40
    Pennsylvania governor to urge patience around election results in new statewide ad

    5.19am EST05:19
    Morning Consult final poll: Biden has national lead of 8 points over Trump

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    10.22am EST10:22

    Trump again says supporters in Texas caravan ‘did nothing wrong’

    Donald Trump has once again defended his supporters who participated in a caravan that swarmed a Biden campaign bus driving down a Texas highway on Friday.
    Responding to a tweet noting the FBI is investigating the incident, Trump said, “This story is FALSE. They did nothing wrong. But the ANTIFA Anarchists, Rioters and Looters, who have caused so much harm and destruction in Democrat run cities, are being seriously looked at!”

    Donald J. Trump
    (@realDonaldTrump)
    This story is FALSE. They did nothing wrong. But the ANTIFA Anarchists, Rioters and Looters, who have caused so much harm and destruction in Democrat run cities, are being seriously looked at! https://t.co/3pmbMllPWS

    November 2, 2020

    The FBI confirmed yesterday that it was investigating the highway incident, after videos of the caravan sparked widespread safety concerns.
    The president previously appeared to discourage the FBI from investigating the matter, saying in a tweet last night, “In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. Instead, the FBI & Justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities and hurting our people!”

    10.18am EST10:18

    Donald Trump is en route to Fayetteville, North Carolina, for his first of five campaign rallies on the last day before election day.

    Mark Knoller
    (@markknoller)
    Pres climbs steps to board Air Force One in Miami as he embarks on last day of 5 campaign rallies in NC, PA, WI and 2 in MI, including final rally tonight in Grand Rapids, just like in 2016, that let to his election. pic.twitter.com/T32GePkC84

    November 2, 2020

    The president was supposed to hold a rally in Fayetteville last Thursday, but it was postponed due to weather concerns.
    After the North Carolina rally, Trump will head to Scranton, Pennsylvania, before traveling on to Michigan and Wisconsin.

    10.05am EST10:05

    Richard Luscombe reports for the Guardian:
    A doctored video purporting to show Joe Biden addressing a rally and forgetting which state he was in was viewed more than 1.1m times on social media before it was removed from Twitter. More

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    Which swing states could decide the US election – video explainer

    Joe Biden is leading ​Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election, but that doesn’t guarantee ​the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign and ended up losing in the electoral college.
    ​Because the presidential ​voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which​ go to the state’s victor regardless of the​ margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will ​probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
    The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino examines how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election
    Watch Anywhere but Washington – our video series examining the key election battlegrounds More

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    It's been a strange trip. Four years ago, who would've thought Biden might win? | Art Cullen

    Nearly a year ago, at the side of a snowy and windswept county road in north-west Iowa, I climbed the steps on to the “No Malarkey” campaign bus. Joe Biden rose to greet me. “Where have I been? In South Carolina, that’s where!”We had seen all the candidates but him – Pete Buttigieg was practically a nextdoor neighbor. The week before, we had asked in a headline in our little country paper: “Where’s Joe?”Donald Trump had been impeached and was being tried in the Senate. The Iowa caucuses were a few weeks off. Former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, agriculture secretary in the Obama administration, rode shotgun while Biden held forth for a half-hour on fighting climate change through regenerative farming practices.“It all starts here. We can do anything if we put our minds to it,” Biden declared.And it all ends here. The former vice-president held a parking lot rally in Des Moines on the Friday before election day, his final call in a state he had worked since 1988 on his route to the White House but never quite won.When the February caucuses cleared, Biden was down in the pack. Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders were tied for first in a delayed result from a failed cellphone reporting app that may well have doomed Iowa’s half-century run as first-in-the-nation. Nevada is itching for pole position.Iowa’s role was to winnow the field. Biden nearly was winnowed here and, a week later, in New Hampshire. Essentially, a half-dozen Democrats had their tickets punched out of Iowa from a field of 25. Mike Bloomberg had his own strategy, bypassing the first states with his bet on Super Tuesday. He could not bypass Elizabeth Warren, who ripped him to shreds in one of the final debates.And Biden had done his work in South Carolina.There, black voters rose up to have their say: No gambling on a lefty. They wanted Safe Joe to bring it home. Representative Jim Clyburn, dean of South Carolina politics, touched Biden’s shoulder. That was that. Little did I know, that blustery day on the bus, how it would play out.Nor do I know this weekend before the election how this long, strange trip of the last four years will end.Iowa is in play after Trump won the state by nine percentage points in 2016. The 2018 midterms saw two women, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer, defeat two incumbent Republican congressmen. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who did a brain meld with Trump in her first term, watched her popularity tank – from over 60% to underwater. Ernst narrowly trails Democrat Theresa Greenfield in most polls. Democrats swamped her in fundraising. Biden holds a slight lead over Trump, who can’t afford TV ads in Iowa.Next door, in Wisconsin, Biden has a healthy margin. Trump thinks he can take Minnesota, but it appears he is down by double digits. It’s grim for the president in Michigan, as well. The upper midwest has figured out that trade wars and picking fights with your friends can suck the life out of agriculture and manufacturing. Iowa and Wisconsin are among the most export-sensitive states in the nation.And, as people honked in their cars in the Des Moines parking lot listening to Biden over their FM radios, Iowa set a weekly record for Covid hospitalizations. It’s as bad in Wisconsin, which Biden also hit on Friday along with Minnesota. Despite the danger, people are lining up for early voting from north to south, masked up and resolute for what surely will be a record turnout.In my corner of Iowa, our county auditor expects a smooth and safe election with results by 10pm. Iowa is your early swing-state bellwether. If Trump loses Iowa or Ohio, he loses the presidency. Each is currently a dead heat. Who would have thought that four years ago – or even two years ago, when candidate John Delaney first crossed our threshold by helping shovel snow from our front door after a blizzard?We’re worn out from the countless cafe campaign appearances, and rancorous debates, and this damned pandemic, and the stream of lies from a corrupter in chief. A record number turned out for the primaries – in Storm Lake, young Latinos caucused for Sanders in droves. They protested in the park for Black Lives last summer, and the police knelt right along. On Labor Day there was a big boat parade for Trump. His flags fly along those blacktops where the Biden bus ran. $60bn in trade and disaster subsidies to agriculture washed over those fields the past two years. We were wiped out by floods in 2019 and a freak wind storm in 2020 while California and Colorado burned.We take note and vote. It all comes down to a few states like Iowa and Wisconsin, where Biden aims to seal that victory at long last.Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope from America’s Heartland More

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    Lone Star turn: Kamala Harris campaigns in Texas in bid to flip state

    [embedded content]
    Jesus Quintanilla, 20, from San Juan on the US-Mexico border, and his family had packed into their car and lined up outside the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley campus to hear vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
    They were turned away after being informed it was invitation-only at the voter-mobilization event.
    Undeterred, Quintanilla crawled under a fence and after getting scolded by the Secret Service found a spot where he could watch.
    Harris didn’t risk saying explicitly that she was there last Friday to flip Texas in the election, she left that to state Democratic luminaries and her former rivals for the presidential nomination, Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro, who came to stump for her and see this border community as key.
    She flew into nearby McAllen, which is most likely to ring a bell in the wider world for Trump-era scenes of trauma. It was in the city that border agents separated migrant children from their families and caged them under hardline immigration policies, some not to see their parents again to this day.
    The area has also been hit hard by coronavirus.
    At 4.43pm, a waving, beaming Harris sashayed on stage in jeans, blazer and her now-signature Converse sneakers with “2020” on the heel, to exuberant cheering and Mary J Blige’s Work That blasting from speakers.
    “They often criticize you for your skin tone, wanna hold your head high,” the R&B lyrics blared to about 200 vehicles gathered for the drive-in rally from various parts of the predominantly Hispanic region known as the Rio Grande Valley. More