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      Democrats Dominated Suburbs on Election Night, a Potential Preview of 2024

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      Republicans had hope after 2022 that the nation’s residential redoubts were coming back to the G.O.P. But aside from New York, the suburbs on Tuesday swung back to the Democrats.From Northern Virginia to Northern Kentucky, the American suburbs rejected Republican candidates on Tuesday, sending a message that leafy residential communities where elections were once won and lost increasingly side with the Democratic Party — especially on abortion rights.Only in the New York suburbs of eastern Long Island did the Republican message on crime and “open borders” seem to resonate. Democrats took a drubbing in Suffolk County, where suburbanites may be recoiling at the migrant crisis plaguing the metropolis to the west.Elsewhere, in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., Louisville, Ky., and Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland, Ohio, voters rejected Republican messages on abortion, L.G.B.T.Q. issues and crime, sending a signal that while they may fret over President Biden’s age and capabilities, they may worry more about Republican positions in the era of Donald J. Trump.“Suburban America left the G.O.P. in 2016 when they didn’t like Trump’s behavior,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster and message adviser. “They began to come back in 2022 when they rejected Joe Biden’s economic policies, but they will leave again if the conversation is about abortion and social policy.”Abortion was dominant; suburban voters outside Ohio’s biggest cities voted overwhelmingly to establish the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution. Kentucky’s incumbent Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, who ran hard on abortion rights and kitchen-table issues like infrastructure spending, won not only Jefferson County, home to Louisville, and Fayette County, home to Lexington. He also beat his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, in Kenton and Campbell Counties, once reliably Republican redoubts across the Ohio River from Cincinnati.Two years ago, Glenn Youngkin’s victorious Republican campaign for governor in Virginia had some Democrats worried that their lock on the suburban sprawl outside the nation’s capital wasn’t as tight as they had thought. Those same suburbs on Tuesday made Danica Roem, a Democrat, the first transgender state senator in the South, while helping Democrats seize a majority in the Virginia General Assembly and hold control of the State Senate.“We let the Democrats drive the message and make it all about abortion,” said John Whitbeck, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia who lives in Loudoun County, a Washington exurb. “The Republican Party has to modernize its message on this issue if we’re going to convince Democrats and independents to cross over and vote Republican. The reality is Virginia has some districts that vote blue. In a year where Roe v. Wade is driving intensity, there’s no way for us to win those districts.”In retrospect, Mr. Youngkin’s victory may have been a hangover from the coronavirus pandemic, when suburban parents worried about school closures and responded to his singular focus on education, said Heather Williams, interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to state legislatures.This time, she said, some of the same parents recoiled from Republican efforts to ban books with L.G.B.T.Q. themes from libraries and more generally inject socially conservative views into the school system.“The issue of fundamental freedoms still really resonates,” she said.In the highly contested school board races around Cedar Rapids, Iowa, voters soundly rejected every candidate endorsed by the right-wing group Moms for Liberty, which had been leading efforts to excise L.G.B.T.Q. books from libraries and exert more conservative control over curriculums.In 2021, with the pandemic still hanging over the schools, the group claimed victory in 33 school board seats in the swing Philadelphia suburbs of Bucks County, Pa. On Tuesday, Moms for Liberty candidates lost five school board races in central Bucks County.“They just got crushed,” said Jefrey Pollock, a Democratic pollster who worked with candidates in Pennsylvania. “Voters are looking for common-sense middle-of-the-road candidates, and that includes how they’ll view Donald Trump a year from now.”Tiffany Justice, a co-founder of Moms for Liberty and former school board member from Indian River County, Fla., expressed no regret, saying that across the country, about 90 school board candidates endorsed by her group did win, out of 202 total that it backed. The “win rate” of Moms for Liberty did slip, from better than 50 percent in 2022 to 43 percent on Tuesday, she said. But, she said, the group will be back in 2024 with 139 candidates, better training for candidates, more money and more professional political partnerships.“We’re just getting started,” she said.The one Republican bright spot was significant: New York. In an otherwise disappointing midterm election in 2022, Republican victories in the suburbs of the nation’s largest city secured the party its narrow control of the House. Democrats are banking on a comeback to help retake the House.But the signal sent on Tuesday was that where voters are seeing the huge upswell of migrants from the southern border, the Republican message on crime and border security is working. In these areas, voters were not asked to litigate the abortion issue.Ed Romaine easily flipped the Suffolk County executive’s office from Democrat to Republican. A Republican, Kristy Marmorato, won a City Council seat in the Bronx for the first time in more than 50 years.Of course, the threat of an abortion ban did not hang over those races — because reproductive rights are already secure in New York.Reid J. Epstein More

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      in US Politics

      White House decries ‘nasty personal smears’ after House Republicans subpoena Biden family – US politics live

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      The Republican-led House oversight committee today sent subpoenas to the president’s son Hunter Biden, his brother James Biden and family associate Rob Walker, prompting a furious response for the White House.The subpoenas, which compel the three men to appear for depositions, come as House Republicans press forward with an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden that centers on unproven allegations that he benefited from corrupt business dealings by his family members.“The House Oversight Committee has followed the money and built a record of evidence revealing how Joe Biden knew, was involved, and benefited from his family’s influence peddling schemes. Now, the House Oversight Committee is going to bring in members of the Biden family and their associates to question them on this record of evidence,” the committee’s chair James Comer said in a statement.In addition to the three subpoenas, Comer requested that five other members of the Biden family and their associates appear for interviews.In a statement, White House spokesman Ian Sams condemned the GOP for dragging the president’s relatives into their long-running investigations:Joe Biden will meet this evening with a groups of Democratic and Republican senators who just returned from a trip to the Middle East, Punchbowl News reports, as his administration navigates the ongoing fallout from Israel’s invasion of Gaza following Hamas’s terrorist attack last month:Biden traveled to Israel shortly after the 7 October terrorist attack, and his secretary of state Antony Blinken in recent days visited the country, including the West Bank, as well as Iraq. However the president’s policy has attracted criticism from some Democrats as well as many Arab American voters, who see Biden as enabling the thousands of civilian deaths reported in Gaza since Israel’s counterattack against Hamas began.It’s a big news day in New York City, where Ivanka Trump just departed the witness stand in the ongoing civil fraud trial against Donald Trump and his family.The former president’s daughter kept her testimony in line with her two brothers, who already testified, while repeatedly saying she did not recall details of correspondences about loans – a plank of the case against the family, which centers on a judge’s finding that the Trump Organization for years inflated the value of its assets to secure better loan terms and other benefits.We have a separate live blog that will tell you all about Ivanka’s time on the witness stand today, and you can read it here:The Republican-led House oversight committee today sent subpoenas to the president’s son Hunter Biden, his brother James Biden and family associate Rob Walker, prompting a furious response for the White House.The subpoenas, which compel the three men to appear for depositions, come as House Republicans press forward with an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden that centers on unproven allegations that he benefited from corrupt business dealings by his family members.“The House Oversight Committee has followed the money and built a record of evidence revealing how Joe Biden knew, was involved, and benefited from his family’s influence peddling schemes. Now, the House Oversight Committee is going to bring in members of the Biden family and their associates to question them on this record of evidence,” the committee’s chair James Comer said in a statement.In addition to the three subpoenas, Comer requested that five other members of the Biden family and their associates appear for interviews.In a statement, White House spokesman Ian Sams condemned the GOP for dragging the president’s relatives into their long-running investigations:Indeed, what to make of yesterday’s off-year election victories by Democrats and their causes, particularly if you are somebody worried about Joe Biden’s poll numbers?Tuesday’s election came just days after the New York Times and Siena College released a survey that found Biden was trailing the Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump in five of the six swing states expected to decide the winner. Democrats’ strong electoral performance yesterday seems to contradict that grim conclusion, but, in an analysis, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says the result is actually not as surprising as it appears.“Off-year elections feature smaller electorates and don’t feature presidential candidates at the top of the ballot,” the center writes.All signs point to next year’s race being a close contest between Biden and Trump. Here’s more from the Center for Politics’s piece:
      Last night’s results have given Democrats a shot in the arm and have confounded the recent narrative about Democrats being in deep trouble next year. But it’s also true that these races in many respects differ from the election coming up next year. It may be the case that President Biden is in fact uniquely vulnerable, and that even former President Trump – himself dragged down by plenty of vulnerabilities that likely are not getting the kind of attention now that they will if he is renominated – could beat Biden. It may also be the case that polling a year out from an election is not predictive (and it often is not). Maybe the Democrats do just have an advantage now in smaller turnout, off-year elections as their base has absorbed many higher-turnout, college-educated voters while shedding lower-turnout voters who don’t have a four-year degree. Maybe the presidential year turnout will bring out more Trump voters and give the Republicans a clearer shot. About all we feel comfortable saying is that we should continue to expect the presidential race to be close and competitive – a boring statement, we know, but probably true.
      Kentucky has not supported a Democratic president in more than 25 years, but last night, voters in the Bluegrass State decided to give Democratic governor Andy Beshear a second term.In an interview with CNN, Beshear was asked if his victory in the strongly Republican state offered any lessons for beleaguered Democrats elsewhere. Here’s what he had to say:Speaking at the White House, Kamala Harris told reporters yesterday was a “good night” after voters in Ohio and Virginia handed victories to advocates of reproductive rights:The bigger question that is undoubtedly on her mind – and, of course, on Joe Biden’s – is whether the momentum Democrats have seen at the state-level since Roe v Wade was overturned will remain in a year, when the presidential elections are held.The Council on American-Islamic Relations has denounced the Republican-led House of Representatives’ decision to censure Rashida Tlaib over her criticisms of Israel.In a statement released on Wednesday, CAIR national executive director Nihad Awad said:
      The American Muslim community stands against this hypocritical and racist targeting of representative Rashida Tlaib, whose voice is indispensable in representing the concerns of millions of Americans who are horrified by the war crimes our government supports against the Palestinian people. She should wear this cowardly censure as a badge of honor. We will not be cowed by those attempting to muzzle our voices.
      Both Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives who orchestrated the suppression and censure of the only Muslim Palestinian voice in Congress under the cover of darkness while ignoring the openly racist, bigoted and violent remarks that members of Congress have made about Muslims and Palestinians, should be deeply ashamed of their actions. They are on the wrong side of history.
      Speaking to reporters, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called last night’s Democratic victories across the country an “important night for the American people.”
      “They rejected these extreme, extreme policies that we’re seeing from the Republican party and they also lifted up the president’s agenda, the president’s values.”
      In response to a follow-up question on Joe Biden’s low approval ratings, Jean-Pierre said:
      “You have to take these polls with a grain of salt… I talked about 2020…what we saw is a president that was able to bring an incredibly strong, diverse coalition to win in 2020. We saw the same thing in 2022…we kept on hearing about a ‘Red Wave’ that didn’t materialize…
      We don’t put much stock in polls. The president’s going to focus on delivering for the American people. He has an agenda that is incredibly popular and that matters.”
      White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said “we strongly disagree” with Democratic representative Rashida Tlaib’s support for the controversial pro-Palestinian phrase “from the river to the sea”, for which the sole Palestinian congresswoman was censured by the Republican-controlled House on Tuesday night.“We strongly disagree with using that phrase – it’s been said by many people at the White House. I do not have any conversations to read out to you with the congresswomen,” Jean-Pierre said after being asked if Joe Biden has spoken to Tlaib about the matter.But Jean-Pierre added: “We have been very, very clear how it is important to be mindful about the language that we use at this time, and we will continue to speak out on that.”Tlaib, who is the only Palestinian American in the US Congress, on Tuesday defended her criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza and urged US lawmakers to join in calling for a ceasefire.Tlaib has long criticized Joe Biden’s support of Israel, but received intense backlash after her defense of the slogan “from the river to the sea”.In a social media post on Friday, Tlaib defended the phrase as “an aspirational call for freedom, human rights, and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction, or hate”.The full slogan, “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”, references the land that sits between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. While many recognize the slogan as a call for Palestinian liberation, others argue that the term has been used to call for the destruction of Israel and the persecution of Jewish people.White House national security spokesman John Kirby was just asked at the daily press briefing how long is a humanitarian pause – in the sense of something being characterized as such.Is, for example, a 72 hour humanitarian pause different from a ceasefire, Kirby was asked by one of the gathered journalists.Kirby said a humanitarian pause was “as long as it needed to be”, eg to get aid in to Gaza or people out of the Palestinian territory, and was something different from “a general ceasefire” that stands as a “cessation of hostilities” between both sides as they seek to negotiate towards an end game in a war, he said.“We do not support that at this time,” Kirby said. He said the White House regarded at ceasefire as currently being to the benefit of Hamas, as opposed to Israel, in military and propaganda terms.A humanitarian pause, in contrast, is something “temporary, localized and for specific purposes,” Kirby said.White House national security spokesman John Kirby adds, at the press briefing now ongoing in the west wing, that it could take “more than one pause” in the fighting in Gaza to get all hostages out of the territory.That is not to say there is any sign today that an opportunity has yet been created for them to be released.Israel’s military is currently reiterating that there will be no ceasefire in Gaza – but the military will allow for “humanitarian pauses,” Reuters notes.The White House reckons such pauses could “last hours or days.”Kirby says the US continues to urge Israel to minimize civilian deaths in Gaza, especially putting people who are currently trying to flee to the south of the territory or out of it altogether “in harm’s way”.He acknowledged that “most Palestinians don’t want to leave” and there are around a million people internally displaced within Gaza right now.The White House is holding its press briefing and national security spokesman John Kirby is reiterating a point he made yesterday, that the notion of Israel occupying Gaza is “not a long term solution to post-conflict governance.”This follows Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration earlier this week that Israel would take control of security in Gaza for an indefinite period, adding to the sense of uncertainty over the future of the Palestinian territory even as it is currently gripped by war and humanitarian crisis.Kirby said, meanwhile, that there are still between 500 and 600 Americans that the US is trying to get out of Gaza. And, asked by journalists about what the militant group Hamas, that controls Gaza, is demanding to release the more than 200 hostages that its fighters snatched when they attacked southern Israel on October 7 and killed at least 1,400 people, Kirby would not give details. The hostages include Americans.“We have a way to communicate with Hamas, we are using that way. We are doing everything we can to get those folks back with their families,” he said.Bernie Sanders has also hit back at the Republican-led House’s decision to censure Rashida Tlaib over her criticisms of Israel amid its deadly bombing campaign that has killed over 10,000 Palestinians, saying:
      “The House should pass desperately needed aid for Gaza, work to stop the conflict in the Middle East, and address the pressing needs of the American people.
      Instead they voted to censure my friend Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in Congress. Pathetic and shameful!” the Independent Vermont senator said.
      MPower Change, a Muslim-led grassroots organization, has thrown its support behind Rashida Tlaib following her censure by the Republican-led House of Representatives.In a post on Instagram, the group said:
      “Shame on those who voted to silence the only Palestinian voice in Congress. Rep. Rashida Tlaib has been censured for defending the rights of Palestinians to live free of Israeli occupation and siege and for demanding an end to the bloodshed in Gaza.
      Rashida has always been on the side of humanity and she will continue to do that regardless of those who try to stop her.”
      Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has spoken out against the House’s censure of Rashida Tlaib over her criticisms of Israel amid its deadly bombing campaign across Gaza that has killed over 10,000 Palestinians in reponse to the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.
      “It is not lost on anyone how many offensive, violent, and racist things people regularly hear members of Congress say, yet virtually the only one that gets censured for her political speech also happens to be the only Palestinian American.
      It does not reflect well. At all,” the New York Democratic representative said.
      The Republican-led House of Representatives has voted to censure Rashida Tlaib, Michigan’s Democratic representative and Congress’s only Palestinian-American.The Guardian’s Chris Stein reports:The 234-188 tally came after enough Democrats joined with Republicans to censure Tlaib, a punishment one step below expulsion from the House. The three-term congresswoman has long been a target of criticism for her views on the decades-long conflict in the Middle East.The debate on the censure resolution on Tuesday afternoon was emotional and intense. The Republican representative Rich McCormick of Georgia pushed the censure measure in response to what he called Tlaib’s promotion of antisemitic rhetoric. He said she had “levied unbelievable falsehoods about our greatest ally, Israel, and the attack on October 7”.Tlaib provoked criticism last week by defending the controversial slogan “from the river to the sea”.In remarks on the House floor, Tlaib defended her criticism of the country and urged lawmakers to join in calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.“I will not be silenced and I will not let you distort my words,” Tlaib said. “No government is beyond criticism. The idea that criticizing the government of Israel is antisemitic sets a very dangerous precedent, and it’s been used to silence diverse voices speaking up for human rights across our nation.”She also said she had condemned the Hamas attacks on Israeli citizens several times.For further details, click here:Following a series of Democratic wins across the country, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer said that “it’s time to recognize Maga extremism is the wrong answer.”In an address on Wednesday, the New York senator said:
      “There is no possible takeaway from last night other than this: Americans fiercely opposed Maga extremism, fiercely opposed total abortion bans and want bipartisan leaders who can put America’s needs first.
      After last night’s results, I have a message to my Republican colleagues:
      When the Maga agenda can’t win in deep-red Kentucky or in Ohio or help you in Virginia, it’s time to recognize Maga extremism is the wrong answer, not just for the country but even for the GOP.”
      Here is more from the Guardian’s staff and agencies on Yusef Salaam, one of the exonerated ‘“Central Park Five” members who won a New York City council seat following yesterday’s election:Salaam, a Democrat, will represent a central Harlem district on the city council, having run unopposed for the seat in one of many local elections playing out across New York state on Tuesday. He won his primary election in a landslide.The victory comes more than two decades after DNA evidence was used to overturn the convictions of Salaam and four other Black and Latino men in the 1989 rape and beating of a white jogger in Central Park. Salaam was imprisoned for almost seven years.“For me, this means that we can really become our ancestors’ wildest dreams,” Salaam said in an interview before the election.Elsewhere in New York City, voters were deciding whether to re-elect the Queens district attorney and cast ballots in other city council races. The council, which passes legislation and has some oversight powers over city agencies, has long been dominated by Democrats and the party is certain to retain firm control after the election.Local elections on Long Island could offer clues about how the city’s suburbs could vote in next year’s congressional elections.For the full story, click here: More

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      in US Politics

      This election shows Democrats are not doomed after all | Steve Phillips

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      The New York Times released a poll on Monday showing Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in several key states, and progressives across the country started to panic. The next day, actual voters in actual states cast actual ballots, and suddenly Democratic prospects don’t look nearly as bleak. In state after state, Democrats and progressives swept to victory, affirming the findings from decades of demographic and electoral data showing that the majority of Americans prefer the more multiracial and inclusive vision of Democrats to the angry and punitive policies of the Republicans.At the heart of the Times poll was the suggestion that African Americans and Latinos were gravitating in large and significant numbers to support Trump. According to the poll, 71% of Black voters and just 50% of Latinos backed Biden. If accurate, those numbers would represent a historic collapse of Democratic support among people of color. Since exit polling by racial groups began in 1976, African Americans have supported the Democratic nominee for president with 88% of their votes, on average. In 2020, Biden got 87% of the Black vote, and in the 2022 midterms, Democratic candidates received 86% of the Black vote. As for Latinos, Biden secured 65% support in 2020.Rather than question the findings of a poll that contradicted decades of prior electoral evidence, much of the media ran with the findings and prophesied doom for Democrats. But then a funny thing happened on the way to a second Trump administration. Voters went to the polls this week and elected Democratic candidates and passed progressive policies.In Kentucky, a state Trump won by 26 points, the Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, handily defeated the Trump acolyte Daniel Cameron. The fact that Cameron is African American and yet still performed poorly undermines the narrative that Black voters are donning Maga hats in large numbers. As the professor Jason Johnson tweeted on Tuesday: “Cameron is a Black Republican candidate w/ Trump’s endorsement in a deeply Red State and he’s going to lose. Can we stop w/ the ‘Trump is gaining ground with black voters’ narrative? Because this should’ve been the test case.”There is literally no state more historically intertwined with the Black experience in America than Virginia. It is where Africans were first brought in 1619, and it was the capital of the Confederacy during the civil war. In 2021, the Republican Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial election, and his party flipped control of the house of delegates, occasioning a spate of articles about the shifting political tides in the commonwealth. But activists and organizers led by groups such as New Virginia Majority steadily registered and mobilized voters of color in large numbers, resulting in Democrats maintaining control of the state senate and recapturing a majority in the house of delegates. Come January, in the same building where the Confederates attempted to organize their white nationalist rebellion, an African American, Don Scott, will become the speaker of the house.In Ohio, a state carried twice by Trump, Democrats backed a pro-choice ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to give individuals the “right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions”. The measure swept to a resounding victory, 57% to 43%. Buckeye state Black voters supported the amendment with 83% of their ballots, sharply refuting the premise that Black support for progressive causes is dissipating.Other states and cities also rode the progressive wave this week, with Democrats winning a contest for a seat on the Pennsylvania state supreme court and also prevailing in a key race in Allegheny county.This week’s election results affirm a few fundamental truths about American politics. Truths proven by this week’s results and nearly 50 years of electoral results, annual census reports and biennial exit polls.There is no more immutable law of politics than the fact that African Americans overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. This is less the result of a particular partisan affinity than the logical reaction to the reality that the fuel of the Republican political machine is white racial rage and resentment. No Democratic nominee has received less than 83% of the Black vote. In terms of African Americans, the question is not who they will vote for, but whether they will vote. That is the real challenge facing progressives in 2024. And that relates to the second fundamental truth, the changing composition of the country’s electorate and the implications for political contests.In the 1960s, people of color comprised just 12% of the US population. Today, the nation is far more racially diverse, with 41% of the population identifying as people of color as the demographic revolution continues apace. In a country defined by the ongoing existential battle over whether this will be a white nationalist society or a multiracial democracy, the majority of people reject the idea of making America white again. Most people in America prefer the Democrats’ vision of a multiracial America (however halfheartedly it may be expressed at times) to the raw, unapologetic white nationalism espoused in coded and not-so-coded ways by Republicans. With the sole exception of the 2004 presidential election, the Democratic nominee has won the popular vote in every single presidential election over the past 30 years.Republicans understand this reality better than Democrats which is why they ferociously focus on suppressing the vote far more than Democrats emphasize expanding voting. From Florida to Texas to Georgia, Republican legislatures and governors have passed draconian laws designed to make it harder to vote.The most important lesson coming out of this week’s election (beyond ignoring aberrant polling data from august institutions) is that maximizing voter turnout is the key to victory. Biden and the entire progressive movement must both inspire the multiracial New American Majority by fighting for unapologetically social justice policies and also invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the kind of voter turnout machine required to surmount suppression and manifest the power of the true majority.
      Steve Phillips is the founder of Democracy in Color and author of Brown is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority and How We Win the Civil War: Securing a Multiracial Democracy and Ending White Supremacy for Good More

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      in Elections

      Election 2023: How Abortion Lifted Democrats, and More Key Takeaways

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      The political potency of abortion rights proved more powerful than the drag of President Biden’s approval ratings in Tuesday’s off-year elections, as Ohioans enshrined a right to abortion in their state’s constitution, and Democrats took control of both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly while holding on to Kentucky’s governorship.The night’s results showed the durability of Democrats’ political momentum since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to an abortion in 2022. It may also, at least temporarily, stem the latest round of Democratic fretting from a series of polls demonstrating Mr. Biden’s political weakness.After a strong midterm showing last year, a blowout victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April and a series of special election wins, Democrats head into Mr. Biden’s re-election contest with the wind at their backs. The question for the party is how they can translate that momentum to Mr. Biden, who remains unpopular while others running on his agenda have prevailed.Here are key takeaways from Tuesday:There’s nothing like abortion to aid Democrats.Democratic officials have been saying for months that the fight for abortion rights has become the issue that best motivates Democrats to vote, and is also the issue that persuades the most Republicans to vote for Democrats.On Tuesday, they found new evidence to bolster their case in victories by Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who criticized his opponent’s defense of the state’s near-total ban; legislative candidates in Virginia who opposed the 15-week abortion ban proposed by the Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin; and, above all, the Ohio referendum establishing a right to abortion access. A Pennsylvania Supreme Court candidate who ran on abortion rights, Daniel McCaffery, also won, giving Democrats a 5-2 majority.Where Trump Counties in Ohio Voted to Support Abortion RightsOhio’s referendum drew support from both liberal and conservative areas of the state, and polled well ahead of President Biden’s results three years ago.Abortion is now so powerful as a Democratic issue that Everytown, the gun control organization founded and funded by Michael Bloomberg, used its TV ads in Virginia to promote abortion rights before it discussed gun violence.The anti-abortion Democrat who ran for governor of Mississippi, Brandon Presley, underperformed expectations.It’s a sign that no matter how weak Mr. Biden’s standing is, the political environment and the issues terrain are still strong for Democrats running on abortion access and against Republicans who defend bans.The last six Kentucky governor’s elections have been won by the same party that won the presidential election the following year. The president may not be able to do what Mr. Beshear managed — talking up Biden policies without ever mentioning the president’s name — but he now has examples of what a winning road map could look like for 2024.In Virginia, a Republican rising star faces an eclipse.Governor Youngkin had hoped a strong night for his party would greatly raise his stature as the Republican who turned an increasingly blue state back to red. That would at the very least include him in the conversation for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, if not 2024.Democratic victories in the Virginia legislature undercut Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s agenda, which was focused on abortion.Carlos Bernate for The New York TimesBut Mr. Youngkin’s pledge to enact what he called a moderate abortion law — a ban on abortions after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the life of an endangered mother — gave Democrats an effective counter as he sought full control of state government.The Democratic argument won the day, at least in part. The party seized the majority in the House of Delegates, kept control of the State Senate and definitely spoiled Mr. Youngkin’s night. The results offered nervous national Democrats still more evidence of abortion’s power as a motivator for their voters while upending the term-limited Mr. Youngkin’s plans for his final two years in office, and possibly beyond.A Democrat can win in deep-red Kentucky, if his name is Andy Beshear.Being the most popular governor in the country turns out to be a good thing if you want to get re-elected.Mr. Beshear spent his first term and his re-election campaign hyperfocused on local issues like teacher salaries, new road projects, guiding the state through the pandemic and natural disasters and, since last summer’s Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, opposing his state’s total ban on abortion.Gov. Andy Beshear focused on local issues in Kentucky, and avoided mentioning President Biden by name.Jon Cherry for The New York TimesThat made him politically bulletproof when his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, sought to nationalize the campaign and juice G.O.P. turnout by tying Mr. Beshear to Mr. Biden and attacking him on crime and L.G.B.T.Q. issues. (Mr. Beshear vetoed new restrictions aimed at transgender young people, though G.O.P. lawmakers voted to override him.)It’s not as if Republican voters stayed home; all the other Republicans running for statewide office won with at least 57 percent of the vote. Mr. Beshear just got enough of them to back him for governor. A Democrat who can win Republican voters without making compromises on issues important to liberal voters is someone the rest of the party will want to emulate in red states and districts across the country.Attacks on transgender rights didn’t work.As abortion access has become the top issue motivating Democrats, and with same-sex marriage broadly accepted in America, Republicans casting about for an issue to motivate social conservatives landed on restricting rights for transgender people. On Tuesday, that didn’t work.In Kentucky, Mr. Cameron and his Republican allies spent more than $5 million on television ads attacking L.G.B.T.Q. rights and Mr. Beshear for his defense of them, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising. Gov. Tate Reeves in Mississippi spent $1.2 million on anti-L.G.B.T.Q. ads, while Republicans running for legislative seats in Virginia spent $527,000 worth of TV time on the issue.Daniel Cameron and his Republican allies spent more than $5 million on television ads attacking L.G.B.T.Q. rights — a strategy that did not pay off in Tuesday’s election.Michael Swensen/Getty ImagesIndeed, in Virginia, Danica Roem, a member of the House of Delegates, will become the South’s first transgender state senator after defeating a former Fairfax County police detective who supported barring transgender athletes from competing in high school sports.In Ohio, voters back both abortion and weed.Ohioans once again showed the popularity of abortion rights, even in reliably Republican states, when they easily approved a constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion.The vote in Ohio could be a harbinger for the coming presidential election season, when proponents and opponents of abortion rights are trying to put the issue before voters in the critical battleground states of Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.Abortion rights groups entered Tuesday on a winning streak with such ballot measures since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. And ultimately, Ohio voters did as voters before them had done — electing to preserve the right to an abortion in their state.Voters at a high school in Columbus, Ohio. Ohioans legalized recreational marijuana.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesAnd with a margin that was almost identical to the abortion vote, Ohioans also legalized recreational marijuana use. That will make Ohio the 24th state to do so.Where abortion wasn’t an issue, a Republican won easily.Mississippi’s governor’s race was the exception to this off-year election’s rule on abortion: The incumbent governor, Mr. Reeves, and his Democratic challenger, Mr. Presley, ran as staunch opponents of abortion rights.And in that race, the Democrat lost.Mr. Presley hoped to make the Mississippi race close by tying the incumbent to a public corruption scandal that saw the misspending of $94 million in federal funds intended for Mississippi’s poor on projects like a college volleyball facility pushed by the retired superstar quarterback Brett Favre. He also pressed for the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act to save Mississippi’s collapsing rural hospitals.Gov. Tate Reeves won his re-election campaign easily Tuesday night in Mississippi.Emily Kask for The New York TimesBut in Mississippi, Mr. Reeves had three advantages that proved impenetrable: incumbency, the “R” next to his name on the ballot, and the endorsement of Mr. Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 17 percentage points.In Kentucky races beneath the marquee governor’s contest, Democrats also did not run on abortion, and they, like Mr. Presley, lost.Rhode Island sends a Biden aide to the House.Rhode Island is hardly a swing state, but still, the heavily Democratic enclave’s election of Gabe Amo to one of its two House seats most likely brought a smile to Mr. Biden’s face. Mr. Amo was a deputy director of the White House office of intergovernmental affairs and as such, becomes the first Biden White House aide to rise to Congress.The son of African immigrants, Mr. Amo will also be the first Black representative from the Ocean State.Gabe Amo became the first Black person to represent Rhode Island in the U.S. Congress, according to The Associated Press.Kris Craig/Providence Journal, via Associated PressWhite House officials said the president congratulated his former aide on his victory. The special election fills the seat vacated by David Cicilline, a Democrat who left the seat to run a nonprofit. More

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      Abortion rights and historic wins: key takeaways from the US’s off-year elections

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      Voters across the US went to the polls on Tuesday for an array of key races that may set the tone for the general election next year.The night delivered some historic wins and some surprise outcomes. Here’s a roundup of the notable races that have been call so far.Virginia voters stave off Republican agendaIn Virginia, where all 140 state legislative seats were up for election, Democrats retained their majority in the state senate, crushing Republican lawmakers’ hopes of gaining control of the legislature.In a surprising victory, Democrats also flipped the house of delegates, the lower chamber of the state house. That means they will be able to effectively block the Republican governor Glenn Youngkin’s agenda, which includes a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest and medical emergencies.Gaining control of both chambers would have allowed Republicans to swiftly move ahead with conservative policy priorities. Though not all of the races have been called, Democrats are already celebrating in what was seen as a bellwether for 2024.A pro-choice victory in OhioIn the nation’s only race where abortion was on the ballot, Ohio voters overwhelming decided to enshrine abortion protections in their state constitution.The vote to approve “Issue 1” passed with nearly 60% of the vote on Tuesday after months of campaigning that saw millions of dollars pour in from both sides.As Carter Sherman, reporting for the Guardian in Akron, Ohio, writes: “Abortion access has been embattled in Ohio since the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade last year, sending the issue of abortion back to the states and leading 16 states to ban nearly all abortions. Ohio has a six-week abortion ban on the books, which briefly took effect until a court paused it. Tuesday’s results should prevent it from being reinstated.Democrat holds on to Kentucky governorshipFollowing a high-profile race that pitted two former law firm colleagues against each other, the Democratic incumbent, Andy Beshear, will retain his gubernatorial seat in the largely conservative state after Kentucky voters chose him over the Republican Daniel Cameron.Cameron, the state’s first Black attorney general, would have been the nation’s first Black republican governor of he were elected. During his campaign for the governor’s seat, Cameron faced criticism from the family of Breonna Taylor, who were angered at his handling of the the investigation into her killing.In Mississippi, a Republican governor keeps his jobBrandon Presley, a Democrat and relation of Elvis Presley, lost his race for governor, conceding to the incumbent Tate Reeves on Tuesday night. Reeves avoided what would have been a remarkable upset, calling his victory “sweet”, and congratulated Presley for “running hard all the way through”.It was a hard-fought contest that saw the candidates exchange verbal blows, writes the Guardian’s Adria Walker in Mississippi, “with Reeves alleging that Presley had been bought by out-of-state, liberal political interest groups. Presley hammered Reeves on his and his family’s alleged involvement in the state’s ongoing corruption scandal.”Election day was disrupted when polling places in the state’s largest county ran out of ballots and voters endured long lines in a key Democratic stronghold.Philly gets its first female mayorIn Philadelphia, voters elected Cherelle Parker as the 100th mayor, and first woman to lead the city. Parker beat out her Democratic opponents and was heavily favored over the Republican candidate David Oh. Parker ran as a moderate in Democratic stronghold where issues like crime, gun violence and blight are consistently top of mind. Parker has been involved in politics since she was a teenager and was a Pennsylvania state representative from 2005 to 2016 and a Philadelphia city council member from 2016 to 2022.Rhode Islanders are sending their first Black representative to CongressThe Democrat Gabe Amo, 35, defeated the Republican Gerry Leonard to win Rhode Island’s first congressional district. Amo, who grew up in Pawtucket as the son of Ghanaian and Liberian immigrants, claimed more than 32% of the vote and will fill the seat of fellow Democrat David Cicilline, who stepped down this summer to become president and CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation.From the ‘Central Park Five’ to New York City councilYusef Salaam won a seat on the New York City council, completing a stunning reversal of fortune decades after he was wrongly imprisoned in an infamous rape case. Salaam, a Democrat, will represent a central Harlem district on the city council, having run unopposed for the seat in one of many local elections held across New York state.The victory comes more than two decades after DNA evidence was used to overturn the convictions of Salaam and four other Black and Latino men in the 1989 rape and beating of a white jogger in Central Park. Salaam was arrested at age 15 and imprisoned for almost seven years. The group became known as the “Central Park Five”.“For me, this means that we can really become our ancestors’ wildest dreams,” Salaam said in an interview with the AP before the election.A loss for an Uvalde mother turned campaignerKim Mata-Rubio, the mother of one the 19 children killed at Robb elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, has lost her mayoral bid. After her 10-year-old daughter was killed in May 2022, Mata-Rubio became an outspoken gun violence prevention advocate.She announced her bid for mayor of Uvalde in June and ran on the promise of making the city “a place where every citizen feels heard, where we honor our past while building a brighter future, and where tragedies like the one my family experienced catalyze positive change for all”, according to her campaign website.Ohioans vote to legalize recreational marijuanaIn another rebuke to the Republican leadership, Ohio voters have made the state the 24th in the nation to legalize marijuana for recreational use. The legislation’s approval comes after Republican officials, including Governor Mike DeWine, publicly denounced the legalization over fears it would negatively affect workplace and road safety.Under the new law, people who are at least 21 years old are allowed to buy marijuana and possess up to two and a half ounces of it. “Marijuana is no longer a controversial issue,” said Tom Haren, a spokesman for the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, which backed the Ohio proposal. More

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      Kentucky’s Democratic governor Andy Beshear re-elected in win for abortion rights

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      Andy Beshear, the Democratic incumbent governor, won a second term in the Republican-leaning state of Kentucky on Tuesday.Beshear’s hope that his support of abortion rights would persuade voters was realized even as skepticism of the national Democratic party grows in the state.While much of Beshear’s first term was dominated by his response to a series of natural disasters and the pandemic, his re-election campaign was often focused on dire warnings about the future of abortion rights. He portrayed his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, as too extreme on the issue, pointing to his support for the state’s abortion ban, which lacks exceptions for pregnancies caused by rape or incest.Beshear’s gubernatorial tenure also included a high-profile mass shooting in Louisville that killed five people, including one of Beshear’s friends. In response, Beshear called on the Republican-led state legislature to enact a red flag law that would allow a judge to order someone’s firearms be removed if they posed a risk to themselves or someone else.While Beshear has affirmed his belief in the second amendment, days after the 2023 shooting, he said: “I’d like to think Democrats and Republicans – red or blue, anybody on the ideology – can come together and say, ‘If we know somebody is right on that brink of going out and committing a horrendous action, don’t you think we should be able to take action?’”The election pitted two former law firm colleagues against each other in one of this year’s most high-profile contests. Beshear’s win signals to Joe Biden and other Democrats that they should continue to focus on abortion rights in 2024, when control of Congress and the White House are at stake.In 2019, Cameron became the first Black candidate to be elected as Kentucky’s attorney general, and he would have been the nation’s first Black Republican governor.During his campaign, he was lambasted by the family of Breonna Taylor, the 26-year-old Black woman who was killed by three white Louisville police officers during a botched raid on her apartment in March 2020. As attorney general, Cameron oversaw the investigation into Taylor’s killing, and faced criticism for the lack of criminal charges in her death. (Cameron recommended that only one of the officers involved be indicted, and only for the wanton endangerment of Taylor’s neighbor.)Cameron has affirmed his support for the current Kentucky abortion law, which bans all abortions except when carried out to save a pregnant woman’s life or to prevent a disabling injury.Kayla Long cited abortion rights as an important issue for her as she cast her ballot for Beshear in Shelbyville, between Louisville and Frankfort, on a mild fall morning.“I think it’s a woman’s right to choose,” she said. “And I don’t think politicians should be involved in that choice at all.”Another Shelbyville voter, Kent Herold, backed Cameron and shared his candidate’s criticism of Biden for his handling of the economy amid surging inflation during his term.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Do you go grocery shopping? Do you buy gas? Let’s be real. I’m not sure he knows what he’s doing,” Herold said.Beshear played up his stewardship of the state’s economy, pointing to record high economic development and historically low unemployment during his term, while promising the state is poised for more growth. And he pushed back against his challenger’s efforts to turn the election into a referendum on Biden, at one point dismissing party affiliation as a box to be checked off.“This attorney general knows that if this race is about me versus him, that you know who I am and how I’ve led and how I’ve shown up every day,” Beshear said during another of their debates.The election might also signal dwindling enthusiasm for the “parents’ rights” movements, which Republicans have increasingly touted. In a message tailored to the state’s legions of conservative voters, Cameron had criticized Beshear’s veto of a sweeping bill that banned gender-affirming care for young transgender people. The veto was overridden by the state’s GOP-dominated legislature. Beshear said the bill “rips away” the freedom of parents to make medical decisions for their children, adding that “all children are children of God”.With this win, Beshear continues his family’s political winning streak in a state that has trended heavily toward Republicans. Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, is a well-regarded former two-term governor. Andy Beshear was narrowly elected as attorney general in 2015 and as governor in 2019, when he ousted the Republican incumbent, Matt Bevin. More

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      Jonathan Shell Wins Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner Race

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      Jonathan Shell, a former Republican state legislator, won an open seat on Tuesday to become Kentucky’s next agriculture commissioner, according to The Associated Press, easily defeating a Democrat who was running for office for the first time.Mr. Shell’s victory over Sierra Enlow, an economic development consultant, underscored the strength of the Republican Party’s recent focus on winning down-ballot races in statewide elections, particularly in the South and the Midwest.While Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, won re-election by beating Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Republicans captured the six other down-ballot races — including attorney general — by double-digit margins.Mr. Shell succeeds Ryan F. Quarles, who served the maximum of two four-year terms. The victory extends a 20-year winning streak by Kentucky Republicans for the agriculture post, whose sizable portfolio includes regulating the sale of fuel and containing animal disease outbreaks.Kentucky has hardly been unique: While Democrats once claimed all 12 elected agriculture seats as recently as two decades ago, Republicans now hold all of them.Elected to the State House in his mid-20s, Mr. Shell, now 35, was once hailed by Senator Mitch McConnell as “one of the most important Republicans in Kentucky.”Mr. Shell, a fifth-generation farmer, nationalized the agriculture contest, vowing to do battle “against radical liberal ideas that threaten our way of life” and to help defeat President Biden, whose voter approval ratings in Kentucky are down to 22 percent.Ms. Enlow, also 35, grew up cutting tobacco on her family’s farm. Calling herself a pro-business Democrat, she had pledged to increase the pay of agriculture employees and to ensure a robust supply chain for medical marijuana, which was recently legalized.But Mr. Shell’s party affiliation mattered most, said Al Cross, director emeritus of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky.“These are not races that get a lot of attention — people default to party choice,” he said. More