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      Trump Is About to Face the Choice That Dooms Many Presidencies

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      As happens every time a new president is elected, Donald Trump is experiencing a sudden role reversal. His campaign to earn support from voters has ended abruptly and a new one has begun among donors and activists to earn his support for their priorities. The election was about tax cuts, or maybe cryptocurrency, the arguments go. What Americans really want, sir, is fewer protections on the job and a weaker safety net.This is the first moment when presidencies go wrong. Rather than prepare to govern on behalf of the electorate that put them in power — especially the independent swing voters who by definition provide the margin of victory in a two-party system — new presidents, themselves typically members of the donor and activist communities, convince themselves that their personal preferences are the people’s as well. Two years later, their political capital expended and their agendas in shambles, their parties often suffer crushing defeats in midterm elections.As he looks toward his new term, Mr. Trump could claim a mandate to lead however he wishes, huddle with his supporters at Mar-a-Lago and then see how much of their agenda he can advance before his popularity falls too far to effect further change. That is the formula that has left a nation seemingly resigned to the loss of both common purpose and institutional competence. It is not a formula for a successful presidency, let alone for making America great again.He has another option. He is an iconoclastic leader with a uniquely unfiltered relationship to the American people and a disdain for the chattering class of consultants. He is also the first president since Grover Cleveland to get a second shot at a first term. He has already experienced the bruising tax fight that helped bring his approval rating down to 36 percent a year after his inauguration, the failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act and the loss of more than 40 House seats and control of the chamber in a midterm election. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, he made a promise to “every citizen” that he would “fight for you, for your family and your future” and that “this will truly be the golden age of America.” Achieving that will require focusing on the challenges and respecting the values broadly shared by not only his voters, but also many others who might come to support him.Take immigration. A promise to secure the border has long been a central aspect of Mr. Trump’s appeal, and Democrats are now clambering to get on his side of the issue. A Trump administration serving American voters would stanch the flow of migrants with tough border enforcement and asylum restrictions, reverse the Biden administration’s lawlessness by removing recent arrivals and protect American workers and businesses by mandating that employers use the E-Verify program to confirm the legal status of the people who work for them. That program, which strikes at the harm that illegal immigration does to American workers, is wildly popular. A recent survey of 2,000 adults conducted by my organization, American Compass, in partnership with YouGov, found 78 percent support overall and 68 percent support even among Democrats. Law-abiding businesses tend to like it, too — they’re tired of getting undercut by competitors that get away with breaking the rules.That’s the path to solving the problem. Mr. Trump will hear a lot of counterarguments from the affluent and influential class that builds its business model on underpaid, undocumented labor, especially in industries such as construction and hospitality, where he has personal experience, as well as in agriculture. Those voices are likely to suggest that instead he condescend to the masses with border theater and hostile rhetoric, while expanding temporary worker programs. To this end, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who opposes the E-Verify program on libertarian grounds, has already been mentioned as a potential candidate for secretary of agriculture. Moves like that will keep the guests at Mr. Trump’s golf clubs happy but ensure growing frustration and disillusion elsewhere.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Elites Had It Coming

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      Everyone has a moment when they first realized that Donald Trump might well return, and here is mine. It was back in March, during a visit to the Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery, when I happened to read the explanatory text beside an old painting. This note described the westward advance of the United States in the 19th century as “settler colonialism.” I read it and I knew instantly where this nation was going.My problem with this bit of academic jargon was not that it was wrong, per se, or that President Biden was somehow responsible for putting it there, but rather that it offered a glimpse of our poisoned class relations. Some curator at one of our most exalted institutions of public instruction had decided to use a currently fashionable, morally loaded academic keyword to address a visitor to the museum — say, a family from the Midwest, doing the round of national shrines — and teach them a lesson about American wickedness.Twenty years ago I published a book about politics in my home state of Kansas where white, working-class voters seemed to be drifting into the arms of right-wing movements. I attributed this, in large part, to the culture wars, which the right framed in terms of working-class agony. Look at how these powerful people insult our values!, went the plaint, whether they were talking about the theory of evolution or the war on Christmas.This was worth pointing out because working people were once the heart and soul of left-wing parties all over the world. It may seem like a distant memory, but not long ago, the left was not a movement of college professors, bankers or high-ranking officers at Uber or Amazon. Working people: That’s what parties of the left were very largely about. The same folks who just expressed such remarkable support for Donald Trump.My Kansas story was mainly about Republicans, but I also wrote about the way the Democrats were gradually turning away from working people and their concerns. Just think of all those ebullient Democratic proclamations in the ’90s about trade and tech and globalization and financial innovation. What a vision they had: All those manifestoes about futurific “wired workers” or the “learning class” … all those speeches about how Democrats had to leave the worker-centric populism of the 1930s behind them … all those brilliant triangulations and reaching out to the right. When I was young, it felt like every rising leader in the Democratic Party was making those points. That was the way to win voters in what they called “the center,” the well-educated suburbanites and computer-literate professionals whom everybody admired.Well, those tech-minded Democrats got exactly what they set out to get, and now here we are. At the Republican convention in July, JD Vance described the ruination visited on his working-class town in Ohio by NAFTA and trade with China, both of which he blamed at least in part on Mr. Biden, and also the human toll taken by the Iraq War, which he also contrived to blame on Mr. Biden. Today Mr. Vance is the vice president-elect, and what I hope you will understand, what I want you to mull over and take to heart and remember for the rest of your life, is that he got there by mimicking the language that Americans used to associate with labor, with liberals, with Democrats.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Democrats Need Working-Class Voters. Maybe Now They’ll Act Like It.

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      The other day I was supposed to visit a friend who had been released from prison. He had to cancel to rescue his sister, who is using drugs again.Another old friend needed a ride: It turned out that his car had broken down again, and until his next paycheck came, he couldn’t afford a $2 bolt to fix it.I think of friends like these here in rural Oregon, in an area that mostly supports Donald Trump, when people ask me why America’s working class rejected the Democrats on Tuesday. My neighbors, struggling to pay the rent and buying gas five dollars at a time, often perceive national Democrats as remote elites more eager to find them pronouns than housing. Election postmortems have been dissecting Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, but the challenge for Democrats goes far beyond any of that.For several decades, voters have identified more with the Democratic Party than with the Republican Party. But in some polls this year, more people have affiliated with the Republican Party than with the Democratic Party. Looking ahead at the specific Senate seats that will be in contention in 2026 and 2028, it’s not easy to see when the Democrats will have a chance to recover the chamber.I see the disenchantment with Democrats in my hometown, Yamhill, which traditionally was dependent on timber, agriculture and light manufacturing. But then good union jobs left, meth arrived and everything changed. Today more than a third of the kids on my old No. 6 school bus are dead from drugs, alcohol, suicide and reckless accidents.Here’s an astonishing statistic from Bureau of Labor Statistics data: Blue-collar private-sector workers were actually earning more on average in 1972, after adjusting for inflation, than they are now in 2024. So today’s blue-collar workers are on average earning less in real dollars than their grandparents were 52 years ago.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      5 Things to Know About Trump’s Tariff Threats

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      The president-elect says that tariff is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” You may be hearing it a lot.President-elect Donald J. Trump has professed a belief in the power of tariffs for decades. Now, as he prepares to take office, they are a central part of his economic plan.Mr. Trump argues that steep tariffs on foreign goods will help benefit U.S. manufacturing and create jobs. His proposals would raise tariffs to a level not seen in generations. Many economists have warned of potentially harmful consequences from such a move, including higher costs for American households and businesses, and globally destabilizing trade wars.Here are five crucial things to know about Mr. Trump’s sweeping trade plans.Mr. Trump has floated several hefty tariff plans.While campaigning for the White House, Mr. Trump offered up a running list of tariffs. He talked about a “universal” tariff of 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products. He has proposed tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. And he has suggested removing permanent normal trading relations with China, which would result in an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.Mr. Trump has also promoted the idea of a “reciprocal” tariff, in which the United States would match the tariff rates that other countries put on American goods. He has suggested using tariff revenue to replace income taxes. And he has threatened tariffs of 100, 200 or even 1,000 percent on Mexico, saying the country should do more to stop flows of migrants and shipments of Chinese cars.The Biden administration has also raised tariffs on goods from China, but Mr. Trump’s plans are much larger — affecting trillions of dollars of products, rather than tens of billions.Mr. Trump says foreign companies pay the tariffs. That’s usually wrong.A tariff is a tax that is put on a product when it crosses a border. For instance, a company that brings its product into the United States — the importer — actually pays the tariff to the U.S. government.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      How Kids and Teenagers Are Getting Involved in Elections

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      Teens around the country are volunteering, canvassing and registering voters.This article is part of A Kid’s Guide to the Election, a collection of stories about the 2024 presidential election for readers ages 8 to 14, written and produced by The New York Times for Kids. This section is published in The Times’s print edition on the last Sunday of every month.You have to be 18 years old to vote in national elections. But you don’t have to be 18 to care — or to play a role. Young people can advocate for issues they care about, support candidates and make sure everyone is able to have their ballots counted. Here’s how kids and teens are getting involved in the election before they’re old enough to actually vote in it.Registering New VotersIt bothers Shivansh B., 17, that some people where he lives in Pleasanton, Calif., don’t seem to care much about voting. He wants to make people in his generation more active in democracy. For Shivansh, that means starting now. “I read an article that said that if you can get people to vote in their very first election, they’ll be voting for a lifetime,” he says. So he spent seven months organizing a rally for all 1,100 juniors and seniors at his high school to encourage them to register to vote for the first time. (In California, you can preregister at 16, so as soon as you turn 18 you’re able to vote.) Shivansh says he hopes to create “a ripple effect of people feeling empowered by their government.”Knocking on DoorsFor Bayly H., making a difference requires some serious footwork. The 17-year-old volunteers for her local state representative in Connecticut by canvassing, which means going door to door to speak directly with voters. She reminds them about the upcoming election, asks what issues matter to them and shares how her candidate promises to address their concerns. “You’re going to trust people in your community who have a conversation with you a lot more than you’re going to trust an ad you see on TV,” she says.Helping at the PollsThis Election Day, Maggie M., a high school senior, will be at a middle school that will serve as a voting site near her home in Fairfax, Va. She’ll show people where to cast their ballots, assist with curbside voting and hand out stickers. One thing she learned in a two-hour training session to be a high school election page is that poll workers have to keep their political views to themselves. The job isn’t to influence anyone’s decisions — it’s to make sure everyone has the “opportunity to vote and choose who gets to go into office,” she says. More

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      Five Charged in Cheating Scandal That Helped Over 200 ‘Unqualified’ Texas Teachers

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      Prosecutors said that the “kingpin,” a high school basketball coach in Houston, had helped educators fraudulently pass more than 400 tests.More than 200 “unqualified teachers” in Texas were able to get jobs or promotions at schools across the state under a board scheme in which impersonators were paid to take more than 400 certification exams for them, prosecutors said this week.Five people have been charged in the scheme, under which they earned a total of at least $1 million, the Harris County District Attorney’s Office said at a news conference on Monday.One of those charged, Vincent Grayson, a basketball coach at Booker T. Washington High School in Houston, Texas, was accused of being the “kingpin of this scheme,” Kim Ogg, the district attorney in Harris County, said. Mr. Grayson, 57, of Houston, worked to help educators, who usually paid $2,500 to have their certification exams taken by an impersonator at testing centers, Ms. Ogg said.“The extent of the scheme will never be fully known,” Ms. Ogg said. “But we know that at least 400 tests were taken and at least 200 teachers falsely certified.”Mr. Grayson’s lawyer, Cheryl E. Irvin, declined to comment and said that she was waiting for more information to be provided by the state regarding her client. Mr. Grayson is scheduled to appear in court again on Friday.The other people charged were an assistant principal at Booker T. Washington High School, a testing center employee, a “corrupt proctor,” and an assistant principal at Jack Yates High School in Houston, Ms. Ogg said. All five have been charged with two counts of engaging in organized criminal activity, Ms. Ogg said. She said that the charges are either first- or third-degree felonies, depending on the level of culpability. The maximum possible sentences range from two years to life in prison.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Volkswagen Profit Shrinks as Unions Threaten Strike

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      Germany’s biggest automaker said its profit dropped 42 percent in the third quarter, as union leaders warned that workers were ready to walk out over a wage dispute.Volkswagen reported a 42 percent drop in quarterly profit on Wednesday, while emphasizing an “urgent need” to cut costs and gain efficiency in a challenging marketplace as it considers plant closures and layoffs in Germany.The automaker’s negotiator pointed to the company’s weak earnings ahead of his meeting with union leaders, who warned of imminent strikes if a solution to cut costs and restructure the brand was not found.The Volkswagen Group, which owns 10 brands, including Audi and Porsche, is Germany’s largest industrial employer, with 120,000 people working for its eponymous core brand. The country’s vision of itself as an economic powerhouse and automotive giant is also deeply intertwined with Volkswagen, and local economies across the country depend on the company and its well-paid workers.Representatives from the automaker and IG Metall, the union representing most of its workers, convened for a second round of wage negotiations on Wednesday in a conference room in the Volkswagen Arena, the stadium of the company’s professional soccer team, VfL Wolfsburg.Before the talks, Volkswagen reported that profit fell to 2.86 billion euros, or $3.1 billion, for the months of August to September, its lowest level in three years. The company is struggling against falling demand in China, the world’s largest car market, and high costs, especially in its homeland, Germany.“The situation is getting worse,” Arne Meiswinkel, the chief of personnel at Volkswagen, who is leading negotiations for the company, told reporters before the negotiations began.But union leaders insisted that a guarantee by the company that all 10 of its factories in Germany would remain open was a prerequisite for them to stay at the negotiating table. The union is prevented from staging any strikes until the end of November, but leaders said that they would begin preparing walkouts unless their demand was met.“We expect Volkswagen to declare its willingness to enter into negotiations with us on a viable future concept for all sites,” Thorsten Gröger, chief negotiator of IG Metall union, told reporters ahead of the talks.“Otherwise, I say quite clearly, we will have to plan the further escalation with our negotiating and bargaining committee,” he said.On Monday, the company’s top employee representative said that management had informed the works council that it was considering shutting down as many as three factories in Germany and laying off tens of thousands of workers. The closures would be the first in the 87-year history of the company and would be a further blow to Germany’s stagnant economy. More

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      Boeing Will Sell $19 Billion in Stock Amid Costly Strike

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      The aerospace company, locked in a standoff with striking workers, is seeking to shore up its balance sheet and avoid a credit rating downgrade.Boeing on Monday began to raise roughly $19 billion by selling stock, an attempt to shore up its finances as a costly and disruptive worker strike weighs on the plane maker’s balance sheet.The sale comes shortly after the aerospace giant reported a $6.1 billion loss in the last quarter and said it was cutting about 17,000 jobs. A weekslong strike by Boeing machinists is costing the company tens of millions of dollars each day, according to analyst estimates, adding to the financial strain created by long-running production and quality issues.The fund-raising aims to stave off a potential credit rating downgrade, which could make it more expensive for the company to borrow money. Boeing has about $58 billion in debt. S&P Global Ratings said this month that it was considering lowering Boeing’s credit rating to “junk” status, depending on how long the strike continues.Boeing’s shares fell about 1 percent Monday morning. The company’s stock has fallen more than 40 percent this year.Last week, Boeing’s largest union, which represents about 33,000 workers, rejected a tentative labor contract, extending a strike that began last month and has halted airplane production at crucial plants in the Seattle area. The proposed agreement did not address a frozen pension plan that workers were seeking to restore.Boeing indicated in regulatory filings this month that it planned to raise as much as $25 billion by selling stock or debt over the next three years, and the company entered into a $10 billion credit agreement with a group of banks. It described the plans as “two prudent steps to support the company’s access to liquidity.”The plane maker hasn’t reported an annual profit since 2018. Before the machinists’ strike started to weigh on the company, two fatal crashes of Boeing’s 737 Max in 2018 and 2019 cost it billions of dollars and severely damaged its reputation. Concerns about the safety of Boeing’s commercial planes resurfaced in January, when a door panel on a 737 Max 9 jet blew open during an Alaska Airlines flight.The stock sale on Monday covers only the company’s near-term needs, “without an extended strike or further production disruptions,” analysts at Wells Fargo said in a research note. More