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    Trump’s Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies and Markets Off Balance

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    On Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on Fox Business to reassure nervous allies and even more twitchy investors that the Trump administration was negotiating a deal to avoid tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and that the president is “gonna work something out with them.”“It’s not gonna be a pause” for Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs, he insisted. “None of that pause stuff.”On Thursday, the world got what the president characterized as more of that pause stuff.Mr. Trump’s announcement that he had a good conversation with Mexico’s president, and would delay most tariffs until April 2, was only the latest example of the punish-by-whim nature of the second Trump presidency. A few hours after the Mexico announcement, Canada got a break too, even as Mr. Trump on social media accused its departing prime minister, Justin Trudeau, of using “the Tariff problem” to “run again for Prime Minister.”“So much fun to watch!” he wrote.Indeed, it appears that Mr. Trump is having enormous fun turning tariffs on and off like tap water. But others are developing a case of Trump-induced whiplash, not least investors, who sent stock prices down again on Thursday amid the uncertainty over what Mr. Trump’s inconstancy means for the global economy. (A later rise in stock futures pointed to rosier expectations for Friday.)When the White House finally released the text of Mr. Trump’s orders on Thursday evening, it appeared that some of the tariffs — those covered in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and celebrated in his first term — were indeed permanently suspended. Other tariffs were merely paused.Most everyone involved was confused, which may well have been the point.As Mr. Trump hands down tariff determinations and then pulls them back for a month or so, world leaders call to plead their case, a bit like vassal states appealing to a larger power. Chief executives put in calls as well, making it clear that Mr. Trump is the one you need to deal with if you are bringing in car parts from Canada or chips from China.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Who’s Got Trump’s Ear on Tariffs? Lutnick or Navarro?

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      Corporate leaders and investors continue to be caught off guard by the president’s trade policy, especially as deal talks heat up. Looking for tariff relief? Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, appears to be one to call.Tierney L. Cross for The New York TimesWho’s in the room President Trump’s tariff policy has given corporate chiefs and investors a serious case of whiplash. While the markets cheered on Wednesday’s delay on auto sector levies, setting off an impressive late-day rally, the move also adds to the confusion about what comes next.The latest: There’s increasing buzz that agricultural products are next in line for tariff relief, as the president faces intense lobbying from his party. And the release on Wednesday of the Fed’s beige book survey of regional activity showed that companies were growing worried that the levies would push up prices.One school of thought on Trump’s tariff plans: they could level the field before negotiations. Trump himself sees them as a tool to bolster the U.S. economy.A way to think about this is to look at the people in his orbit. On tariffs, there are two key, and seemingly polar opposite, figures.There’s Howard Lutnick, the former head of Cantor Fitzgerald who is a moderate on trade and now commerce secretary. And there is Peter Navarro, a longtime Trump lieutenant and a proponent of high tariffs who is generally opposed to trade deals.Who has more influence? For now, it seems to be Lutnick. Trump’s announcement of a one-month pause on tariffs on cars coming through Canada and Mexico wouldn’t have surprised anyone who heard Lutnick’s comments earlier in the day.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Gaming Out Trump’s Next Tariff Moves

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      In his address to Congress, the president made clear that his new trade levies were here to stay, acknowledging it might create “a little disturbance.” Analysts forecast what that might look like.President Trump’s tariffs have jolted global markets and the business world, but he has given no indication he’ll retreat on the levies.Doug Mills/The New York Times“A little disturbance” For months, the debate gripping board rooms, Wall Street and world capitals was whether to take President Trump at his word on tariffs. For a while, the markets rallied as if he were just bluffing.He wasn’t. In an address before Congress last night, Trump said that tariffs would protect American jobs and enrich the nation. He also acknowledged that “there will be a little disturbance. But we’re OK with that.”What might a “a little disturbance” look like? DealBook has taken on the task of gaming out what could happen next. (A warning to free-trade advocates: this could be tough reading.)More tariffs are coming, trade experts say. Few countries, or companies, will be spared. For example, if the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China stick, then Europe will be next. Such a scenario is “unavoidable,” George Saravelos, the global head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note on Tuesday. European companies are already bracing for the next wave.“Trump has appeared to be less amenable to carve-outs in this second term,” David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura, told DealBook. That could bode poorly, he added, for Britain, whose prime minister, Keir Starmer, met with Trump at the White House last week where a trade deal was discussed. “I don’t think Keir Starmer should just feel safe right now,” Seif said.Expect more market turmoil. “These tariffs would represent a major negative global growth shock, sufficient to push many economies into recession,” Saravelos wrote, adding that it’s time to stop thinking of them as a negotiating tactic. (The recessionary risk for the United States may be remote, but concerns are growing about the tariffs’ potential stagflationary effects.)We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Picks Another Trade Fight With Canada Over Lumber

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      The president initiated an investigation that could lead to tariffs on lumber imports, nearly half of which comes from Canada.President Trump on Saturday initiated an investigation into whether imports of lumber threaten America’s national security, a step that is likely to further inflame relations with Canada, the largest exporter of wood to the United States.The president directed his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, to carry out the investigation. The results of the inquiry could allow the president to apply tariffs to lumber imports. A White House official declined to say how long the inquiry would take.An executive memorandum signed by Mr. Trump ordered the investigation and was accompanied by another document that White House officials said would expand the volume of lumber offered for sale each year, increasing supply and helping to ensure that timber prices do not rise.The trade inquiry is likely to further anger Canada. Some of its citizens have called for boycotts of American products over Mr. Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on all Canadian imports beginning on Tuesday. The president, who also plans to hit Mexico with similar tariffs, says the levies are punishment for failure to stem the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.Many Canadians have contested Mr. Trump’s assertion that fentanyl is flowing from its country into the United States.Canada and the United States have sparred over protections in the lumber industry for decades. The countries have protected their own industries with tariffs and other trade measures, and argued about the legitimacy of those measures in disputes both under the North American Free Trade Agreement and at the World Trade Organization.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump’s First Cabinet Meeting Was a Display of Deference to Elon Musk

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      President Trump’s first cabinet meeting was a display of deference to Elon Musk.A couple of hours before President Trump convened his cabinet for the first time, he used his social media platform to declare that the group was “EXTREMELY HAPPY WITH ELON.”As the meeting began, it seemed to be the members’ job to prove it.The secretaries sat largely in silence behind their paper name cards, the sort of thing you need when, powerful though you may be, you are not a household name. And they listened politely as the richest man in the world loomed over them, scolding them about the size of the deficit, sheepishly admitting to temporarily canceling an effort to prevent ebola and insisting they were all crucial to his mission.“I’d like to thank everyone for your support,” Elon Musk said.In fact, Musk has not had the support of every cabinet secretary — at least not when he tried to order their employees to account for their time over email or resign. When a reporter asked about the obvious tension, Trump kicked the question to the secretaries themselves.“Is anybody unhappy with Elon?” Trump asked. “If you are, we’ll throw him out of here. Is anybody unhappy?”Nobody was unhappy. Nervous laughter rippled around the table as Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, grinned and led a slow clap, which Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, eventually joined before scratching her nose.Next to her, Kelly Loeffler, the small business administrator, applauded and attended to an itch on her ear. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered up a single clap and gazed over at Musk, a fixed smile on his face. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health secretary, shifted in his seat.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      With Trump’s Help, Intel Could Hand Control of Chip Plants to TSMC

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      The Silicon Valley giant is trying to cut a deal it hopes would help it pull out of a yearslong slump.Intel, a fallen Silicon Valley icon trying to restore its reputation as America’s most prominent semiconductor company, is working with the Trump administration on a plan to turn over the operation of its chip-making plants to a giant Taiwanese rival.Over the past few months, Frank Yeary, the interim executive chairman of Intel, has spoken with administration officials and leaders of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company about a deal that would separate Intel’s ailing manufacturing business from its semiconductor design and product business, according to four people with knowledge of the plan, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.TSMC, which produces an estimated 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, would assume control of Intel’s manufacturing business and take a majority stake in the business alongside a consortium of investors that could include private equity firms and other tech companies, the four people said.The Trump administration has encouraged TSMC to do the deal. Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, has been involved in the conversations and considers them one of the most consequential challenges of his new job, two of the people familiar with the discussions said.Intel is the only American-owned maker of advanced logic chips and has been at the forefront of U.S. efforts to rev up domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, which are a foundational technology. But Intel has struggled to compete against TSMC. Most of that company’s production is done in Taiwan, which is a strategic risk for the United States because of growing threats from the government of mainland China.Howard Lutnick has been involved in the talks as President Trump’s pick to lead the Commerce Department.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Markets Cheer Trump’s Treasury Pick, Scott Bessent

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      Investors seemed to signal their approval for Scott Bessent as a safe choice to implement the president-elect’s economic agenda.Stocks and bonds are gaining on Monday, as investors seem to cheer the pick of Scott Bessent to run the Treasury Department.Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty ImagesA steady hand Stocks and bonds are rising on Monday, and the dollar is down. On the first trading day since Donald Trump chose the billionaire financier Scott Bessent as his pick for Treasury secretary, investors seem to be signaling they like the choice.The hedge fund mogul is seen as a steady hand to enact the president-elect’s economic vision — and, just as important, oversee the $28 trillion Treasuries market. “Investors prefer orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence from economic policy; there were fears that some of the candidates may not possess those attributes. Bessent does,” Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a research note on Monday.The Key Square Group founder overcame serious opposition from some in Trump’s inner circle. Elon Musk derided Bessent as a “business-as-usual choice” and threw his weight behind Howard Lutnick, the C.E.O. of Cantor Fitzgerald. When Trump tapped Lutnick to lead the Commerce Department instead, Bessent was left to fight it out against the likes of Mark Rowan, the boss of Apollo Global Management, the private equity giant.Bessent won a “knife fight” to get the nod. On Wall Street, a document was circulated suggesting that his Key Square hedge fund had underperformed the booming markets. Bessent’s ascent is notable in that he doesn’t appear to have been on Trump’s radar during his first administration.His background as a former Democratic donor who worked with George Soros, a villain for the right, has also been scrutinized. (Interesting fact: Bessent furnished the progressive billionaire financier with key data that prompted Soros to make one of his most famous trades: shorting the British pound.) Some Trump backers, including Palmer Luckey, the defense tech entrepreneur, worried about Bessent’s commitment to the president-elect’s America-first agenda.Investors appear to have fewer qualms. Bessent gets high marks as a fiscal conservative and a champion of growth — at Key Square, he told clients that Trumponomics would usher in an “economic lollapalooza” — through deregulation and lower taxes.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Stock for Sale by Cabinet Members

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      Trump’s picks for Treasury secretary and commerce secretary both lead Wall Street firms. Here’s what that could mean for their finances and businesses.As President-elect Donald Trump takes an unconventional approach to stocking his cabinet, he’s also embracing one candidate pool that has plenty of precedent: Wall Street chief executives.On Friday, Trump picked Scott Bessent, a top economic adviser and the founder of Key Square Group, a hedge fund, to be his Treasury secretary. He previously tapped Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, for commerce secretary.Executives appointed to government positions are often required to make extensive stock divestitures, so the path from Wall Street to Washington can be particularly complex (while also offering an opportunity to avoid certain taxes).Bessent’s potential departure from Key Square may trigger “key man provisions” that often protect clients of hedge funds if top executives leave. And Lutnick is inextricably linked with Cantor Fitzgerald: He was named its president in 1991 and steered the firm after it was ravaged by the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001.Here is what we know — and don’t know — about how Bessent and Lutnick plan to unwind.Lutnick would leave Cantor Fitzgerald. He said Thursday that, upon Senate confirmation, he would step down from the company and the two firms it spun out: BGC Group, a brokerage firm, and Newmark, a real estate firm.He’d be leaving during BGC’s ambitious push to take on the exchange giant CME Group — likely a reason that BGC’s shares were down 8 percent for the week. Shares of Newmark were up 1 percent.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Chooses Linda McMahon, a Longtime Ally, for Education Secretary

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      President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday tapped Linda McMahon, a former professional wrestling executive who ran the Small Business Administration for much of his first term, to lead the Education Department, an agency he has routinely singled out for elimination in his upcoming term.A close friend of Mr. Trump’s and a longtime booster of his political career, Ms. McMahon had been among his early donors leading up to his electoral victory in 2016 and has been one of the leaders of his transition team, vetting other potential appointees and drafting potential executive orders since August.In Ms. McMahon, 76, Mr. Trump has elevated someone far outside the mold of traditional candidates for the role, an executive with no teaching background or professional experience steering education policy, other than an appointment in 2009 to the Connecticut State Board of Education, where she served for just over a year.But Ms. McMahon is likely to be assigned the fraught task of carrying out what is widely expected to be a thorough and determined dismantling of the department’s core functions. And she would assume the role at a time when school districts across the country are facing budget shortfalls, many students are not making up ground lost during the pandemic in reading and math, and many colleges and universities are shrinking and closing amid a larger loss of faith in the value of higher education.“We will send Education BACK TO THE STATES, and Linda will spearhead that effort,” Mr. Trump said in a statement announcing the decision on Tuesday.Ms. McMahon led the Small Business Administration during Mr. Trump’s first term and resigned in 2019 without a public fallout or rift with Mr. Trump, who praised her at her departure as “one of our all-time favorites” and a “superstar.” She stepped down from that role to help with Mr. Trump’s re-election campaign and became the chairwoman of the pro-Trump super PAC America First Action.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More