Maduro, Nicolas

Subterms

    More stories

    • 100 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Gobierno de Venezuela y oposición firman un acuerdo

      by

      El acuerdo firmado el martes por el gobierno autoritario del país y la oposición no permitiría que todos los candidatos puedan postularse.El gobierno del presidente venezolano Nicolás Maduro, y la oposición del país, reanudaron el martes las conversaciones para avanzar hacia unas elecciones libres y justas, aunque el acuerdo que se anunció tiene limitaciones en los temas que los activistas de derechos humanos y el gobierno de Estados Unidos buscan en última instancia.Había esperanzas de que, como parte del acuerdo, Maduro permitiera que los candidatos de la oposición que han sido inhabilitados por su gobierno participen en las elecciones presidenciales de 2024, a cambio del levantamiento de las sanciones impuestas a la vital industria petrolera venezolana.Esto sería un paso fundamental hacia una contienda creíble porque a María Corina Machado, la candidata favorita de las elecciones primarias de la oposición que se realizarán el domingo, le prohibieron postularse a las elecciones generales.El acuerdo firmado el martes, durante una ceremonia en la isla caribeña de Barbados, es vago. Aunque incluye el compromiso de permitir la presencia de observadores electorales internacionales y el acceso a los medios de comunicación en 2024, hace pocas promesas concretas. Los expertos afirman que es poco probable que Estados Unidos levante las sanciones si no se permite que Machado se postule a las elecciones.“Vamos hacia el objetivo supremo de levantamiento de las sanciones”, dijo Jorge Rodríguez, presidente de la Asamblea Nacional de Venezuela, en la ceremonia. Y agregó: “Si usted recibió una inhabilitación administrativa por el órgano que le corresponde, desde el punto de vista constitucional legal, que es la Contraloría General de la República, pues tampoco puede ser candidato”.Incluso antes de un anuncio oficial, algunos expertos en Venezuela expresaron su escepticismo de que el acuerdo lograra un cambio político real.“Es un acuerdo minimalista que no logrará unas elecciones libres y justas”, dijo Phil Gunson, analista del International Crisis Group que vive en Caracas, la capital del país. Pero “es lo mejor que hay en estas circunstancias. Le permite a Maduro aferrarse al poder, a menos que ocurra algo realmente dramático. En realidad, son pequeños pasos”.Y añadió: “El gobierno de Maduro tiene un historial de incumplimiento de los acuerdos que firma”.Maduro llegó al poder en 2013, tras la muerte del presidente Hugo Chávez, el fundador de la revolución de inspiración socialista que ha gobernado el país. Bajo el mandato de Maduro, Venezuela, que fue uno de los países más ricos de América Latina, ha experimentado un declive económico extraordinario, generando una crisis humanitaria que ha provocado una migración masiva.El presidente Nicolás Maduro reclamó la victoria en unas elecciones de 2018 ampliamente consideradas fraudulentas y que originaron sanciones más estrictas por parte de Estados Unidos.Meridith Kohut para The New York TimesMás de siete millones de venezolanos han huido del país, cuya población es de unos 28 millones de habitantes. Además, en los últimos años, cientos de miles de personas han emprendido el viaje hacia Estados Unidos a pie.En 2018, Maduro se declaró vencedor en unas elecciones ampliamente consideradas como fraudulentas. En respuesta, el gobierno de Estados Unidos endureció significativamente las sanciones contra la industria petrolera del país, la principal fuente de ingresos de Venezuela, una medida que exacerbó la crisis económica y aisló a Maduro de gran parte del mundo.Para mejorar la economía, Maduro necesita que se levanten las sanciones. Al mismo tiempo, la oposición quiere que establezca condiciones competitivas para las próximas elecciones presidenciales con el fin de tener una oportunidad legítima de ganar.Sin embargo, ambas partes no han logrado estos objetivos, y pareciera que Maduro no está dispuesto a hacer nada que crea que puede poner en riesgo su control sobre el poder.En noviembre, como señal de su disposición a levantar las sanciones a cambio de garantizar unas elecciones justas, Estados Unidos concedió a la petrolera Chevron una licencia para una expansión limitada de las operaciones energéticas en Venezuela, un avance modesto hacia la posible reincorporación del país al mercado petrolero internacional.El gobierno de Biden se encuentra bajo presión para garantizar que los precios del petróleo se mantengan estables de cara a las elecciones presidenciales del próximo año. La amenaza de un conflicto más amplio en Medio Oriente, aunada a las actuales interrupciones de las exportaciones energéticas rusas, amenazan con avivar otro episodio de inflación y provocar una potencial subida de los precios de la gasolina en los próximos meses.Pero, incluso después de levantar las sanciones, se necesitarían años y miles de millones de dólares de inversión para aumentar la producción de petróleo lo suficiente como para bajar los precios, dijo Francisco Monaldi, experto en energía venezolana de la Universidad Rice en Houston.Monaldi cree que lo más probable es que el gobierno de Biden centre sus motivaciones en tratar de frenar el flujo de migrantes venezolanos hacia la frontera entre Estados Unidos y México, en vez de hacer bajar los precios del petróleo a corto plazo.El gobierno de Maduro está siendo investigado por la Corte Penal Internacional por posibles crímenes de lesa humanidad cometidos desde 2017, lo que incluye torturas y persecuciones por motivos políticos.Isayen Herrera More

    • 125 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      The Risks of Sanctions, the Tool America Loves to Use

      by

      There is nearly universal consensus that certain egregious violations of international laws and norms demand a forceful and concerted response. Think only, for example, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the development of nuclear weapons capabilities in Iran and North Korea. Harsh economic sanctions have long been viewed as the answer.The eternal question, though, is: What comes next? When do sanctions stop working? Or worse, when do they start working against the United States’ best interests?These are important questions because, over the past two decades, economic sanctions have become a tool of first resort for U.S. policymakers, used for disrupting terrorist networks, trying to stop the development of nuclear weapons and punishing dictators. The number of names on the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions list has risen steadily, from 912 in 2000 to 9,421 in 2021, largely because of the growing use of banking sanctions against individuals. The Trump administration added about three names a day to the list — a rate surpassed last year with the flurry of sanctions that President Biden announced after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Given their increasing use, then, it is useful to understand not only how sanctions can be a tool for successful diplomacy but also how, when not employed well, they can ultimately undermine American efforts to promote peace, human rights and democratic norms across the globe.The Invisible Costs of SanctionsPolicymakers turn to sanctions so frequently — the United States accounts for 42 percent of sanctions imposed worldwide since 1950, according to Drexel University’s Global Sanctions Database — in part because they are seen as being low cost, especially compared with military action.In reality, the costs are substantial. They are borne by banks, businesses, civilians and humanitarian groups, which shoulder the burden of putting them into effect, complying with them and mitigating their effects. Sanctions can also take a toll on vulnerable people — often poor and living under repressive governments, as academics are increasingly documenting.Officials rarely factor in such costs. While sanctions are easy to impose — there are dozens of sanctions programs administered by multiple federal agencies — they are politically and bureaucratically difficult to lift, even when they no longer serve U.S. interests. What’s worse, sanctions also escape significant public scrutiny. Few officials are held responsible for whether a particular sanction is working as intended rather than needlessly harming innocent people or undermining foreign policy goals.Mr. Biden came into office promising to rectify that lack of accountability. The Treasury Department conducted a comprehensive review of sanctions in 2021 and released a seven-page summary that October. The review process was an important step. It concluded, among other things, that sanctions should be systematically assessed to make sure they are the right tool for the circumstances, that they be linked to specific outcomes and include our allies where possible and that care should be taken to mitigate “unintended economic and political impacts” on American workers, businesses, allies and other innocent people.The Treasury Department is making some progress in carrying out the review’s recommendations, but Treasury is just one of many government agencies responsible for fulfilling sanctions. Every one of them should conduct regular, data-driven analyses to ensure that the benefits of sanctions outweigh the costs and that sanctions are the right tool, not just the easiest one to reach for. It is also important that the results of such analyses are communicated to Congress and the public.Sanctions Need Clear, Achievable OutcomesWhat is already known is that sanctions are most effective when they have realistic objectives and are paired with promises of relief if those objectives are met. Perhaps the best example is the 1986 law targeting apartheid-era South Africa, which laid out five conditions for sanctions relief, including the release of Nelson Mandela. Sanctions by the United States and other nations helped convince South Africa’s whites-only government that its policies mandating racial segregation were unsustainable.Sanctions on Communist Poland in 1981 in response to the crushing of the Solidarity movement are another example of how this can work. The United States and its allies gradually lifted sanctions with the release of most imprisoned activists, helping usher in a new era of political freedom in Poland and elsewhere in Eastern Europe.It’s notable that the sanctions against South Africa and Poland were aimed at bringing about free and fair elections, not regime change. Sanctions aimed at regime change often incentivize defiance, not reform. They have a terrible track record, as the cases of Cuba, Syria and Venezuela make clear.In Venezuela, open-ended sanctions with sweeping ambition — to oust the dictator Nicolás Maduro — have so far achieved the opposite. After he dissolved the democratically elected National Assembly in 2017 and was declared the winner of a sham presidential election in 2018, the Trump administration imposed maximum-pressure sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company to cut off a crucial source of funds to the Maduro dictatorship.While harsh individual sanctions against Mr. Maduro were necessary, the blacklisting of Venezuela’s oil sector has exacerbated a humanitarian crisis: As this editorial board warned, cutting off oil revenue deepened what was already the worst economic contraction in Latin America in decades. Sanctions on the oil industry, which accounts for about 90 percent of the country’s exports, caused dramatic cuts in government revenue and significant increases in poverty, according to a study last year by Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.The policy, meanwhile, failed to push Mr. Maduro out of power. He instead consolidated his grip on Venezuela, blamed its economic misery on American sanctions and drew his country closer to Russia and China. Sanctions are deeply unpopular in Venezuela, according to numerous opinion polls. Even the representative of Venezuela’s opposition in the United States, a group that previously supported broad sanctions, recently called on Mr. Biden to lift oil sanctions.Since taking office, Mr. Biden has taken steps to modify the sanctions against Venezuela to add specific, achievable objectives. His administration lifted some oil sanctions by giving Chevron permission to do limited work in the country, prompted by the spike in oil prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The White House has promised additional relief if Mr. Maduro takes steps toward holding free and fair elections next year. Francisco Palmieri, the State Department’s chief of mission of the Venezuelan affairs unit in Bogotá, Colombia, recently released a detailed list of what has to be done in order for sanctions to be lifted. It includes setting a date for next year’s presidential election, reinstating candidates who have been arbitrarily arrested and releasing political prisoners.Mr. Maduro hasn’t complied so far. On June 30, he barred yet another well-known opposition figure from holding office. Nevertheless, this more modest policy, which supports a gradual return to democracy rather than abrupt regime change, is a better approach.The Biden administration should be more explicit about which sanctions in Venezuela would be lifted and when, especially those on the state-owned oil company. That would make American promises more credible. An agreement in November between Mr. Maduro and the opposition to use Venezuela’s frozen assets for humanitarian purposes was another promising step, but it is in limbo because the funds have yet to be released.The delay is causing Venezuelans to lose hope in a negotiated solution to the crisis, according to Feliciano Reyna, the president and founder of Acción Solidaria, a nonprofit organization that procures supplies for public hospitals in Venezuela. Although he has a special license to import supplies, he said he still had trouble obtaining what he needed. Some companies, he said, preferred not to sell to Venezuela rather than deal with the headache of making sure it was legal — a phenomenon known as overcompliance.“The situation internally is really dire,” Mr. Reyna said.The loss of hope is, in part, why more than seven million Venezuelans have fled their country since 2015, with more than 240,000 arriving at the U.S. southern border in the past two years. Many experts view sanctions as an important driver of migration from Venezuela because they worsen the economic conditions that push people to leave. In response, a group of Democratic lawmakers — including Representative Veronica Escobar of Texas, who co-chairs Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign — implored him to lift sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba.In addition to making good on its commitments in Venezuela, the Biden administration can do much more to show that the United States is changing its sanctions policy to make it more humane. The first step would be to follow through on the recommendations of its 2021 review and formally take the humanitarian cost of any sanction into account before it is imposed. The Treasury Department in May hired two economists to take on that task; that should become standard practice for any agency with the responsibility for carrying out sanctions.Sanctions Need to Be ReversibleOnce the government begins conducting systematic reviews of existing sanctions, it’s crucial to ensure that any sanction imposed can be reversed.Consider the most glaring failure to do this: the open-ended trade embargo against Cuba. President John F. Kennedy put the embargo in place in 1962 with the stated goal of “isolating the present government of Cuba and thereby reducing the threat posed by its alignment with the Communist powers.” In the years since, American presidents have sent wildly different messages about what it would take to remove sanctions. Barack Obama moved to lift many of them in 2014 — an effort that Donald Trump reversed three years later. Last year Mr. Biden lifted some of the Trump-era sanctions. Yet only an act of Congress can end the embargo.Peter Harrell, who served on the National Security Council staff under Mr. Biden, argues that sanctions should automatically expire after a certain number of years unless Congress votes to extend them. That would cut down on cases of zombie sanctions that go on for decades, long after U.S. policymakers have given up on the sanctions’ achieving their goals.For sanctions to incentivize change rather than merely punish actions in the past, the United States should be prepared to lift sanctions — even against odious actors — if the stated criteria are met.Sanctions, as attractive as they are, rarely work without specific goals combined with criteria for sanctions to be lifted. That applies to current as well as future sanctions. Without goals and relief criteria, these measures — among the most severe in the U.S. foreign policy arsenal — risk working against American interests and principles in the long run.Source photograph by Vicki Jauron, Babylon and Beyond Photography, via Getty Images.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

    • 88 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      The Head Spinning Reality of Venezuela’s Economy

      by

      CARACAS, Venezuela — In the capital, a store sells Prada purses and a 110-inch television for $115,000. Not far away, a Ferrari dealership has opened, while a new restaurant allows well-off diners to enjoy a meal seated atop a giant crane overlooking the city.“When was the last time you did something for the first time?” the restaurant’s host boomed over a microphone to excited customers as they sang along to a Coldplay song.This is not Dubai or Tokyo, but Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, where a socialist revolution once promised equality and an end to the bourgeoisie.Venezuela’s economy imploded nearly a decade ago, prompting a huge outflow of migrants in one of worst crises in modern Latin American history. Now there are signs the country is settling into a new, disorienting normality, with everyday products easily available, poverty starting to lessen — and surprising pockets of wealth arising.That has left the socialist government of the authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro presiding over an improving economy as the opposition is struggling to unite and as the United States has scaled back oil sanctions that helped decimate the country’s finances.A television on sale for over $100,000 at a store in Caracas.A recently opened high-end restaurant in Caracas.Conditions remain dire for a huge portion of the population, and while the hyperinflation that crippled the economy has moderated, prices still triple annually, among the worst rates in the world.But with the government’s ease of restrictions on the use of U.S. dollars to address Venezuela’s economic collapse, business activity is returning to what was once the region’s wealthiest nation.As a result, Venezuela is increasingly a country of haves and have-nots, and one of the world’s most unequal societies, according to Encovi, a respected national poll by the Institute of Economic and Social Research of the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas.Mr. Maduro has boasted that the economy grew by 15 percent last year over the previous year and that tax collections and exports also rose — though some economists stress that the economy’s growth is misleading because it followed years of huge declines.For the first time in seven years, poverty is decreasing: Half of the nation lives in poverty, down from 65 percent in 2021, according to the Encovi poll.A street vendor selling produce at $1 for each bagged vegetable in a busy downtown market in Caracas.After years of a roller-coaster economy, Venezuela has settled into a new, disorienting normality fueled by U.S. dollars.But the survey also found that the wealthiest Venezuelans were 70 times richer than the poorest, putting the country on par with some countries in Africa that have the highest rates of inequality in the world. And access to U.S. dollars is often limited to people with ties to the government or those involved in illicit businesses. A study last year by Transparency International, an anti-corruption watchdog, found that illegal businesses such as food, diesel, human and gas smuggling represented more than 20 percent of the Venezuelan economy.Though parts of Caracas bustle with residents who can afford a growing array of imported goods, one in three children across Venezuela was suffering from malnutrition as of May 2022, according to the National Academy of Medicine.Up to seven million Venezuelans have simply given up and abandoned their homeland since 2015, according to the United Nations.And despite the Maduro administration’s new slogan — “Venezuela is fixed” — many scrape by on the equivalent of only a few dollars a day, while public-sector employees have taken to the streets to protest low salaries.“I have to do back flips,” said María Rodríguez, 34, a medical lab analyst in Cumaná, a small city 250 miles east of the capital, explaining that, to pay for food and her daughter’s school tuition, she relied on two jobs, a side business selling beauty products and money from her relatives.Yrelys Jiménez, a preschool teacher in San Diego de los Altos, a half-hour drive south of Caracas, joked that her $10 monthly salary meant “food for today and hunger for tomorrow.” (The restaurant that allows diners to eat 150 feet above the ground charges $140 a meal.)Yrelys Jiménez with her son and daughter in their shared bedroom.Ms. Jiménez during the long walk home with her children from her job as a teacher.Despite such hardship, Mr. Maduro, whose administration did not respond to requests for comment, has focused on promoting the country’s rising economic indicators.“It seems that the sick person recovers, stops, walks and runs,” he said in a recent speech, comparing Venezuela with a suddenly cured hospital patient.The United States’ shifting strategy toward Venezuela has in part benefited his administration.In November, after the Maduro administration agreed to restart talks with the opposition, the Biden administration issued Chevron an extendable six-month license to pump oil in Venezuela. The deal stipulates that the profits be used to pay off debts owed to Chevron by the Venezuelan government.And while the United States still bans purchases from the state oil company, the country has increased black-market oil sales to China through Iran, energy experts said.A ceiling of floating sculptures in a luxury department store in Caracas.The Venezuelan government’s easing of restrictions on dollars has made it easier for some people to use money sent from abroad.Mr. Maduro is also emerging from isolation in Latin America as a regional shift to the left has led to a thaw in relations. Colombia and Brazil, both led by recently elected leftist leaders, have restored diplomatic relations. Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, has been particularly warm to Mr. Maduro, meeting with him repeatedly and agreeing to a deal to import Venezuelan gas.With presidential elections planned next year and the opposition’s parallel government having recently disbanded, Mr. Maduro seems increasingly confident about his political future.Last year’s inflation rate of 234 percent ranks Venezuela second in the world, behind Sudan, but it pales in comparison to the hyperinflation seen in 2019, when the rate ballooned to 300,000 percent, according to the World Bank.With production and prices up, Venezuela has also started to see an increase in revenues from oil, its key export. The country’s production of nearly 700,000 barrels a day is higher than last year’s, though it was twice as high in 2018 and four times as high in 2013, said Francisco J. Monaldi, a Latin America energy policy fellow at Rice University.The Venezuelan government’s loosening of restrictions on dollars has made it easier for some people to use money sent from abroad. In many cases, no cash is actually exchanged. Venezuelans with means increasingly use digital apps like Zelle to use dollars in accounts outside the country to pay for goods and services.Friends celebrating a birthday at a trendy restaurant in Caracas.A survey found that the wealthiest Venezuelans were 70 times richer than the poorest residents.Still, U.S. officials call Venezuela’s economic picture somewhat illusory.“They were able to adjust to a lot of their problems after sanctions were implemented through dollarization,” according to Mark A. Wells, a deputy assistant secretary of state, “and so it starts to look over time that they are able to reach a status that basically helps the elites there, but the poor are still very, very poor.’’“So, it’s not that everything is more stable and better there,” Mr. Wells added.Mr. Maduro took office nearly 10 years ago and was last elected in 2018 in a vote that was widely considered a sham and was disavowed by much of the international community.The widespread belief that Mr. Maduro won fraudulently led the National Assembly to deem the presidency vacant and use a provision in the Constitution to name a new leader, Juan Guaidó, a former student leader. He was recognized by dozens of countries, including the United States, as Venezuela’s legitimate ruler.But as the figurehead of a parallel government that had oversight over frozen international financial accounts, he had no power within the country.Juan Guaidó led a parallel government that was recognized by the United States but held no power.Scavenging a large garbage bin at a street market in Caracas. Half of the nation lives in poverty, down from 65 percent in 2021.In December, the National Assembly ousted Mr. Guaidó and scrapped the interim government, a move some observers considered a boost to Mr. Maduro. A number of opposition figures have announced that they will run in a primary scheduled for October, even though many political analysts are skeptical that Mr. Maduro will allow a credible vote.“What Maduro does have today is an opposition that is disjointed and dispersed,” Mr. Guaidó said in an interview. “He also has a majority of the people against him. He continues being a dictator without popular support, a destroyed economy, which was his own fault, with professors, nurses, older people and workers protesting right now as we speak.”Even people like Eugenia Monsalves, who owns a medical supply company in Caracas and sends her two daughters to private schools, is frustrated with the country’s direction.Though she is upper middle class, she said she still had to watch how she spends her money.She goes out to eat occasionally and has visited some of the city’s new luxury stores, but without buying anything.“The vast majority of Venezuelans live in a complicated situation, very complicated,” she said.Ms. Monsalves believes the Maduro administration needs to go, but she worries that the best candidates were forced into exile or disqualified. The opposition, she said, has not coalesced around what it most needs: a leader who can energize the electorate.“That’s what I most want, like many other Venezuelans,” she said. “But the truth is that without a clear vision from the opposition, a clear platform from a single candidate, I think it’s going to be hard.”An upscale restaurant built inside a recently renovated hotel in Caracas.Nayrobis Rodríguez contributed reporting from Sucre, Venezuela, and More

    • 75 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      Ferrari, Prada y hambre en Venezuela

      by

      CARACAS, Venezuela — En la capital, una tienda vende bolsos de Prada y un televisor de 110 pulgadas por 115.000 dólares. No muy lejos, un concesionario de Ferrari ha abierto, y un nuevo restaurante permite que los comensales acomodados disfruten de una comida sentados encima de una grúa gigantesca con vistas a la ciudad.“¿Cuándo fue la última vez que hicieron algo por primera vez?”, gritaba por el micrófono el anfitrión del restaurante a los clientes emocionados, mientras cantaban una canción de Coldplay.Esto no es Dubái ni Tokio, sino Caracas, la capital de Venezuela, donde una revolución socialista prometió igualdad y el fin de la burguesía.La economía de Venezuela colapsó hace casi una década, lo que provocó un enorme flujo de emigrantes en una de las peores crisis de la historia moderna de América Latina. Ahora hay indicios de que el país se está asentando en una nueva y rara normalidad, con productos cotidianos fácilmente disponibles, una pobreza que empieza a disminuir y asombrosas áreas de opulencia.Esto ha dejado al gobierno socialista del presidente autoritario de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, liderando un país en el que la economía está mejorando, la oposición batalla por unirse y Estados Unidos ha comenzado a reducir las sanciones petroleras que habían contribuído a obstaculizar las finanzas.Un televisor en venta a un precio superior a 100.000 dólares en una tienda de CaracasUn restaurante costoso que abrió recientemente en Caracas.Las condiciones siguen siendo terribles para una gran parte de la población, y aunque la hiperinflación que paralizó la economía se ha moderado, los precios siguen triplicándose anualmente, una de las peores tasas del mundo.Pero con la relajación por parte del gobierno de las restricciones al uso de dólares estadounidenses para hacer frente al colapso económico de Venezuela, la actividad empresarial está volviendo al que fue el país más rico de la región.Como resultado, Venezuela es cada vez más un país de ricos y pobres, y una de las sociedades más desiguales del mundo, según Encovi, una respetada encuesta nacional realizada por el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Católica Andrés Bello.Maduro se ha jactado de que la economía creció un 15 por ciento el año pasado, con respecto al anterior, y de que la recaudación de impuestos y las exportaciones también aumentaron, aunque algunos economistas subrayan que el crecimiento de la economía es engañoso porque se produjo tras años de enormes caídas.Por primera vez en siete años, la pobreza está disminuyendo: la mitad del país vive en la pobreza, frente al 65 por ciento en 2021, según la encuesta de Encovi.Un puesto vende verduras a un dólar por pieza en bolsa en un mercado ajetreado en el centro de Caracas.Luego de años de un subibaja económico, Venezuela se ha instalado en una nueva y desconcertante normalidad impulsada por los dólares estadounidenses.Pero la encuesta también reveló que los venezolanos más ricos eran 70 veces más ricos que los más pobres, lo que pone al país a la par con algunos países de África que tienen las tasas más altas de desigualdad en el mundo.Y el acceso a los dólares estadounidenses está limitado a personas con vínculos al gobierno o a quienes están involucrados en negocios ilícitos. Un estudio del año pasado de Transparencia Internacional, una organización anticorrupción, halló que negocios ilegales como el contrabando de comida, gasolina, personas y gas representaban más del 20 por ciento de la economía venezolana.Aunque algunas zonas de Caracas están llenas de residentes que pueden adquirir una creciente variedad de productos importados, uno de cada tres niños en toda Venezuela sufría desnutrición en mayo de 2022, según la Academia Nacional de Medicina.Alrededor de siete millones de personas se han dado por vencidas y han huido de su patria desde 2015, según las Naciones Unidas.A pesar del nuevo mensaje del gobierno de Maduro —“Venezuela se arregló”—, muchos sobreviven con el equivalente a solo unos pocos dólares al día, y los empleados del sector público han salido a la calle para protestar por los bajos salarios.“Tengo que hacer maromas”, dijo María Rodríguez, de 34 años, analista de laboratorio médico en Cumaná, una pequeña ciudad ubicada a 400 kilómetros al este de la capital. Rodríguez dice que, para pagar la comida y la matrícula escolar de su hija, dependía de dos trabajos, un negocio paralelo de venta de productos de belleza y el dinero de sus familiares.Yrelys Jiménez, profesora de preescolar con estudios universitarios en San Diego de los Altos, una localidad ubicada a media hora en coche al sur de Caracas, bromeaba diciendo que su salario mensual de 10 dólares significaba “pan para hoy y hambre para mañana”. (El restaurante que permite que los comensales coman a 45 metros sobre el suelo cobra 140 dólares por comida).Yrelys Jiménez con sus hijos en la habitación que comparten.Jiménez en su larga caminata a casa con sus hijos, al volver de su trabajo como maestra.A pesar de estas penurias, Maduro, cuyo gobierno no respondió a las solicitudes de comentarios, se ha centrado en promover los crecientes indicadores económicos del país.“Parece que el enfermo se recupera, se para, camina y corre”, dijo Maduro en un discurso reciente, comparando a Venezuela con un paciente de hospital que se cura repentinamente.El cambio de estrategia de Estados Unidos hacia Venezuela ha beneficiado en parte a su gobierno.En noviembre, después de que el gobierno de Maduro accediera a reanudar las conversaciones con la oposición, el gobierno de Biden concedió a Chevron una licencia de seis meses, prorrogable, para extraer petróleo en Venezuela. El acuerdo estipula que los beneficios se utilicen para pagar las deudas que el gobierno venezolano tiene con Chevron.Y, mientras Estados Unidos sigue prohibiendo las compras a la petrolera estatal, el país ha aumentado las ventas de petróleo en el mercado negro a China a través de Irán, según los expertos en energía.Esculturas flotantes en una tienda departamental de lujo en CaracasLa flexibilización de las restricciones sobre los dólares por parte del gobierno venezolano ha facilitado que algunas personas gasten el dinero enviado desde el extranjero.Maduro también está saliendo del aislamiento de sus vecinos latinoamericanos porque un giro regional hacia la izquierda ha provocado el deshielo de las relaciones. Colombia y Brasil, ambos dirigidos por líderes de izquierda recientemente elegidos, han restablecido las relaciones diplomáticas. El nuevo presidente de Colombia, Gustavo Petro, ha sido particularmente cálido con Maduro, reuniéndose con él en repetidas ocasiones y acordando un acuerdo para importar gas venezolano.Con las elecciones presidenciales previstas para el próximo año y la reciente disolución del gobierno paralelo de la oposición, Maduro parece cada vez más confiado en su futuro político.La tasa de inflación del año pasado, del 234 por ciento, sitúa a Venezuela en el segundo lugar del mundo, por detrás de Sudán, pero palidece en comparación con la hiperinflación registrada en 2019, cuando la tasa se disparó hasta el 300.000 por ciento, según el Banco Mundial.Con la producción y los precios del crudo al alza, Venezuela también ha empezado a experimentar un aumento de los ingresos procedentes del petróleo, su exportación clave. La producción del país, de casi 700.000 barriles al día, es superior a la del año pasado, aunque fue dos veces mayor en 2018 y cuatro veces mayor en 2013, dijo Francisco J. Monaldi, investigador de política energética de América Latina en la Universidad Rice.La flexibilización por parte del gobierno venezolano de las restricciones sobre los dólares ha facilitado que algunas personas puedan usar el dinero enviado desde el extranjero. En muchos casos, no se intercambia dinero en efectivo. Los venezolanos con medios utilizan cada vez más aplicaciones digitales como Zelle para usar dólares en cuentas del extranjero para pagar bienes y servicios.Amigas celebran un cumpleaños en un restaurante de moda en Caracas.Una encuesta halló que los venezolanos más adinerados eran 70 veces más ricos que los más pobres.Aun así, los funcionarios estadounidenses califican el panorama económico de Venezuela de ilusorio de alguna manera.“Fueron capaces de ajustarse a muchos de sus problemas tras la aplicación de las sanciones a través de la dolarización”, según Mark A. Wells, subsecretario de Estado adjunto, “por lo que con el tiempo empieza a parecer que son capaces de alcanzar un estatus que básicamente ayuda a las élites de allí, pero los pobres siguen siendo muy, muy pobres”.“Por lo tanto, no es que todo sea más estable y mejor ahí”, agregó Wells.Maduro asumió el cargo hace casi 10 años y fue reelegido en 2018 en unos comicios ampliamente considerados como una farsa y que fueron repudiados por gran parte de la comunidad internacional.La creencia generalizada de que Maduro ganó fraudulentamente llevó a la Asamblea Nacional elegida democráticamente a declarar vacante la presidencia en 2019 y utilizar una disposición de la Constitución para nombrar a un nuevo líder, Juan Guaidó, un exdirigente estudiantil. Fue reconocido por decenas de países, incluido Estados Unidos, como gobernante legítimo de Venezuela.Pero como figura principal de un gobierno paralelo que supervisaba las cuentas financieras internacionales congeladas, carecía de poder dentro del país.Juan Guaidó lideró un gobierno reconocido por Estados Unidos pero que no tenía poder dentro del país.Rebuscando en un gran contenedor de basura en un mercado callejero de Caracas. La mitad del país vive en la pobreza, menos que el 65 por ciento que vivía en esa situación en 2021.En diciembre, la Asamblea Nacional destituyó a Guaidó y eliminó el gobierno interino, una medida que algunos observadores consideraron como un impulso a Maduro. Varias figuras de la oposición han anunciado que se presentarán a las primarias previstas para finales de octubre, a pesar de que muchos analistas políticos son escépticos de que Maduro permita una votación creíble.“Lo que Maduro tiene hoy es una oposición desarticulada y dispersa”, dijo Guaidó en una entrevista telefónica. “También tiene a la mayoría del pueblo en su contra. Sigue siendo un dictador sin apoyo popular, una economía destruida por su propia culpa, con profesores, enfermeras, ancianos y trabajadores protestando ahora mismo mientras hablamos”.Incluso gente como Eugenia Monsalves, propietaria de una empresa de suministros médicos en Caracas y que envía a sus dos hijas a colegios privados, está frustrada con el rumbo del país.Aunque es de clase media alta, dice que tiene que cuidar cómo gasta su dinero.Sale a comer de vez en cuando y ha visitado algunas de las nuevas tiendas de lujo de la ciudad, pero sin comprar nada.“La gran mayoría de los venezolanos viven una situación complicada, muy complicada”, dijo.Monsalves cree que el gobierno de Maduro debe irse, pero le preocupa que los mejores candidatos hayan sido forzados al exilio o descalificados. La oposición, dijo, no se ha unido en torno a lo que más necesita: un líder que pueda energizar al electorado.“Eso es lo que yo más quisiera, así como muchísimos otros venezolanos”, dijo. “Pero la verdad es que de esta manera, y sin un panorama claro de la oposición, una propuesta clara de un candidato, lo veo muy difícil”.Un restaurante de lujo en un hotel recién remodelado en Caracas.Nayrobis Rodríguez colaboró con reporteo desde Sucre, Venezuela, y More

    • 113 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      As Venezuelan Antagonists Talk, the U.S. Softens Its Stance

      by

      Negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition could lead to an easing of the country’s protracted crisis.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A rare meeting between leaders of Venezuela’s bitterly divided government and opposition is expected to result in two major agreements meant to ease the country’s complex political and humanitarian crisis.The meeting partly reflects the economic ripple effects of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, which has reduced global oil supplies and pushed the United States to reconsider its restrictions on energy companies operating in Venezuela.If all goes as planned, the talks, scheduled for Saturday, will lead to an agreement to transfer up to $3 billion in Venezuelan government funds frozen overseas into a humanitarian program administered by the United Nations — a concession by President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, who has long denied the scope of the suffering that has unfolded under his tenure. At the same time, the United States is expected to approve a license request by Chevron Corp. to expand operations in Venezuela, according to three people familiar with the deal. The agreement could represent an important step toward allowing Venezuela to re-enter the international oil market, something Mr. Maduro desperately needs to improve the economy.U.S. State Department officials have publicly applauded the return to negotiations between the two parties, after an earlier effort was cut off by the Maduro government last year. But a Biden administration official familiar with the talks said that any action related to Chevron in Venezuela “is contingent on if the parties actually announce specific commitments to support the people of Venezuela.”The official requested anonymity to be able to speak freely about the matter.For years, Chevron and other oil companies have been prevented from large-scale operations in Venezuela by U.S. sanctions designed to starve Mr. Maduro’s government.President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela speaking in Caracas earlier this month.Federico Parra/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFollowing the expected accord, other companies are likely to press the United States to further lift Venezuela-related restrictions, including sanctions that ban entities in India and elsewhere from importing Venezuelan oil, said Francisco Monaldi, director of Rice University’s Latin America Energy Program.The United States is likely to tie such actions to further concessions by Mr. Maduro. But if it does lift the sanctions, that would be an economic “game changer” for Venezuela’s authoritarian leader, Mr. Monaldi added.“My concern,” he said of the expected Chevron license, “is that the U.S. seems to be giving a lot for very little.”A Chevron spokesman would not comment on the expected agreement.The meeting between the Venezuelan government and opposition leaders, held in Mexico, is the outcome of more than a year of conversations between the two sides about how to address the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crisis, which dates to at least 2014.But the talks also are part of a larger softening of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, which many analysts say is related to a growing global need for non-Russian oil sources. Venezuela is believed to hold the largest oil reserves of any country.The United States is a supporter of the Venezuela dialogue, not a participant.The Biden administration official said that any action related to Chevron in Venezuela was not a response to energy prices. “This is about the regime taking the steps needed to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” the person said.Any new license would be time-limited and would prevent Venezuela from receiving profits from the oil sales by Chevron, the official added, explaining that the Biden administration “would retain the authority to amend or revoke authorizations should the Maduro regime fail to negotiate in good faith.”For years, the Trump administration tried to weaken Mr. Maduro through sanctions and isolation, recognizing the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president and pulling Washington’s top diplomats out of Caracas.The Biden administration has opted for more engagement.In June, the American ambassador to Venezuela, James Story, who is now based in neighboring Colombia, flew to Caracas to meet with government and opposition leaders. In October, the United States granted clemency to two nephews of Mr. Maduro’s wife in exchange for seven Americans held captive in Venezuela. The nephews had been sentenced to 18 years in prison for conspiring to smuggle cocaine.The Venezuelan opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, speaking in Caracas on Monday.Miguel Gutierrez/EPA, via ShutterstockIt would take years for Venezuela’s neglected oil infrastructure to have an impact on the global market. But with no sign that tensions between Russia and the West could ease soon, some leaders believe the wait could be worth it.“I think energy was one of the things that made it possible, perhaps politically, for Biden to take the rather bold step of communicating directly” with Mr. Maduro’s government, said Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group who has lived in Venezuela for more than two decades.But he cautioned that the American softening on Venezuela predated the war in Ukraine.“Energy is a factor” in the strategy shift, he said, but “it’s not the only factor.”Venezuela was once among the most affluent countries in Latin America, its economy buoyed by oil. But mismanagement and corruption by leaders claiming socialist ideals plunged the economy into disarray, while Mr. Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, gutted its democratic institutions.The situation has prompted the largest cross-border migration crisis in the Western Hemisphere, with more than 7 million Venezuelans — a quarter of the population — fleeing, according to the United Nations. Recently, a record number of Venezuelans have arrived at the U.S. border, most of them trekking through a harrowing jungle called the Darién Gap to get there.The talks in Mexico are supposed to be part of a series of meetings between the Venezuelan government and opposition. Much of the opposition hopes that political concessions will be next on the agenda.Mr. Maduro is focused on getting American sanctions lifted, which would help him improve the economy — and perhaps win a presidential election already slated for 2024.The Venezuelan opposition has long said its goal is to push Mr. Maduro to set free and fair conditions that would give them the opportunity to oust in him in that election.Mr. Guaidó recently called that vote “the door to democracy, freedom and the reunion of the family.”Lining up to vote during regional elections in Caracas last November.Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York TimesIn the past, Mr. Maduro has controlled the vote by banning many opposition figures from political participation, jailing others and co-opting many political parties. He holds elections to project a veneer of legitimacy.Speaking on state television about the Mexico talks this week, Mr. Maduro said he wanted to make it clear: “Nobody is going to impose anything on us, not today, not tomorrow, not ever.”The United States still recognizes Mr. Guaidó as the country’s president, though his global influence has fallen significantly after a bid to support him failed to oust Mr. Maduro.Mr. Monaldi, the energy expert, said the Chevron deal was not merely symbolic — within two years, the company could be pumping more than 200,000 barrels a day in Venezuela, adding to the approximately 765,000 barrels pumped daily today, according to Argus, an industry monitor.For the United States and for the opposition, the talks are a gamble.On the one hand, simply getting Mr. Maduro to negotiate is a victory, and the $3 billion humanitarian deal could be a major step toward alleviating suffering.On the other hand, said Mr. Gunson, the aid and the Chevron deal could improve economic conditions, lifting Mr. Maduro’s popularity.Still, he hasn’t given an inch on the political front.“That’s why there’s so much nail biting for the people in the administration who are pushing this policy,” said Mr. Gunson. “Because if Maduro essentially says, ‘Thank you very much,’ and doesn’t offer any concessions, then they’re going to look pretty foolish.”Isayen Herrera contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela, and Clifford Krauss from Houston. More

    • 163 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      Nicolás Maduro Is President of Venezuela Whether the U.S. Likes It or Not

      by

      When the United States arranged an exchange of prisoners with President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela last week — sending home two nephews of Mr. Maduro’s wife who had been convicted of drug trafficking in a swap for seven Americans held in Venezuelan jails — it exposed the incoherence of U.S. policy toward Venezuela.Even as it negotiates with Mr. Maduro, the White House continues to insist that Juan Guaidó, an opposition politician, is the real president of Venezuela. The United States has no formal diplomatic relations with the Maduro government, and the embassy in Caracas has been closed since early 2019, shortly after President Donald Trump recognized Mr. Guaidó as president in an unsuccessful, long-shot bid to force Mr. Maduro from power.It is time for the Biden administration to accept that the Guaidó gambit has failed and that most Venezuelans, and most of the international community, have moved on. The White House needs a Venezuela policy based on fact, not fiction. And the fact is that Mr. Maduro is president of Venezuela and Mr. Guaidó is not.Accepting reality will have many potential benefits — not least to the Venezuelan opposition, which is in the midst of a turbulent effort to remake itself.After Mr. Trump announced his support for Mr. Guaidó in January 2019, dozens of other countries followed Washington’s lead. But today, only a dwindling handful continue to recognize Mr. Guaidó as Venezuela’s president, and, like the United States, eschew direct diplomatic ties with Mr. Maduro’s government.And that list is getting shorter.Gustavo Petro, the newly elected leftist president of Colombia, moved quickly after taking office in August to abandon his country’s recognition of Mr. Guaidó and reopen its embassy in Caracas. That change is crucial because Colombia has long been Washington’s most important ally in South America and a key supporter of Mr. Guaidó.Brazil, another powerful backer of Mr. Guaidó, could be next, if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva retakes the presidency in a runoff election later this month.Mr. Guaidó was always president in name only — he had no government and no power to act inside Venezuela. He showed courage when he defied Mr. Maduro’s repressive regime, but he never had a viable plan, beyond vague hopes for a military coup or for U.S. intervention. And he was wedded to Mr. Trump’s sanctions-heavy approach, which exacerbated Venezuela’s economic crisis.Mr. Guaidó’s claim to an alternate presidency rested on his role as head of the National Assembly, but his legislative term ended last year, and at that point many of his supporters inside and outside of Venezuela gave up on the notion.Today, Mr. Maduro is stronger than he was three years ago, and the opposition is in disarray.Dropping the pretense that Mr. Guaidó is president would set U.S. policy on a rational foundation but would not be an endorsement of Mr. Maduro. It could facilitate talks with Mr. Maduro over key areas, including the wave of Venezuelan refugees entering the United States and possible changes to economic sanctions related to oil exports. A resumption of consular activities would make it possible for citizens to obtain or renew visas and passports.One of the greatest beneficiaries could be the Venezuelan opposition, which is in a turbulent, and necessary, state of flux. The opposition has been harshly repressed by a Maduro government committed at all costs to staying in power; while the opposition has made many missteps, it is the primary political force in the country committed to democracy and the defense of human rights, and it is therefore critical to finding a solution to the country’s crisis.Over the last two years, most mainstream Venezuelan opposition parties have been thrown into crisis, hemorrhaging activists, splitting apart in leadership squabbles or watching once-loyal voters defect.The government has frequently stepped in to stir the pot, using the courts or electoral authorities to order the takeover of parties by substitute leadership that is considered suspect by the rest of the opposition. But in most cases, the divisions were there to be exploited.Venezuelans are fed up with opposition parties that often seem more interested in fighting with each other than in improving the country’s fortunes.At the same time, new parties have emerged, organizing around new leaders.The political changes were evident in elections held last November. The opposition won a third of the mayorships around the country, after previously holding fewer than one in ten. And although the opposition won just four governorships out of 23, it received a majority of votes in all but a few states. The reason it didn’t win more governorships was that multiple opposition candidates split the vote, essentially handing victory to candidates allied with Mr. Maduro.The lessons of November were powerful. The election showed that Venezuelans still see the ballot box as a way out of the nation’s troubles. It unmasked the weakness of the government party among voters. It demonstrated, once again, that lack of unity is the opposition’s Achilles’ heel.And it revealed gains for the nontraditional opposition, with about half of total opposition votes going to candidates outside the coalition led by the four mainstream parties, according to Eugenio Martínez, a journalist who specializes in election analysis.Venezuelan politics are now aimed at a presidential election that will take place in 2024.Will the opposition come together to choose a single candidate, or will it remain divided? The United States has urged Mr. Maduro and the opposition to resume negotiations that could lead to improved electoral conditions. But who will sit across the table from Mr. Maduro’s negotiators?So far, Washington has thrown its weight behind the Unitary Platform, a rebranded coalition led by Mr. Guaidó and the traditional parties, which is seeking to steer the choice of a 2024 candidate and which controls the team that would negotiate conditions with Mr. Maduro.But by continuing to uphold the fiction that Mr. Guaidó is president of Venezuela, the administration makes it harder for the opposition to go through the necessary process of reforming itself. The United States must acknowledge reality — as it relates to who actually governs in Venezuela and the need for Venezuelans to fashion the opposition that they choose. That is the only way that Washington can play a constructive role in solving Venezuela’s crisis.William Neuman is a former New York Times reporter and Andes region bureau chief, and the author of “Things Are Never So Bad That They Can’t Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Venezuela celebró unas elecciones controversiales, pero Maduro demostró su poderío político

      by

      Los observadores europeos dijeron que las elecciones no fueron libres ni justas. Mostraron cómo el gobierno del presidente, por impopular que sea, puede ganar excluyendo y dividiendo a los opositores.CARACAS, Venezuela — El martes, los observadores electorales de la Unión Europea afirmaron que las elecciones regionales de Venezuela fueron desvirtuadas por condiciones desiguales de participación, violencia y órdenes judiciales contra los líderes de la oposición.No obstante, la participación de funcionarios internacionales independientes —los primeros que presencian unas votaciones venezolanas en 15 años— resaltó que el presidente Nicolás Maduro se ha consolidado en el poder de Venezuela de una manera profunda, desde que asumió el cargo en 2013.Según los analistas y los líderes de la oposición, después de años de reprimir con fuerza a la disidencia y socavar los vestigios de las instituciones democráticas venezolanas, Maduro perfeccionó un sistema político en el que no le teme al escrutinio internacional cuando se enfrenta a oponentes que ya han sido analizados con atención.El gobierno demostró que al impedir que contiendan los líderes más destacados y populares de la oposición, fomentar la apatía entre los electores y conservar la lealtad de una minoría dependiente de las dádivas del gobierno, puede ganar las elecciones sin recurrir al fraude descarado, incluso con un apoyo popular mínimo.Pese a manejar una economía destrozada y, según las encuestas, tener el apoyo de solo el 15 por ciento de la población, el gobernante Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela ganó al menos 19 de las 23 gobernaciones, así como la mayoría de las alcaldías. De acuerdo con un estudio de las principales universidades del país, uno de cada cinco venezolanos ha huido del país bajo el mandato de Maduro y el 95 por ciento de los que se quedaron no ganan lo suficiente para satisfacer sus necesidades básicas.En el triunfo aplastante del partido gobernante tuvieron mucho que ver las divisiones internas de la oposición. Algunos líderes opositores boicotearon las elecciones, como sucedió en otros comicios recientes. Quienes decidieron participar dividieron los votos con facciones que habían pactado con Maduro o adoptaron una línea menos dura contra el presidente para sacarle provecho a la apertura económica que se ha permitido en los últimos años.La misión de los observadores de la Unión Europea señaló el martes que no podría decir que las elecciones del domingo hayan sido libres ni justas debido, en parte, a las ventajas competitivas de las que goza el partido en el gobierno y a la falta de un Estado de derecho.El presidente Nicolás Maduro a su llegada a su casilla de votación, acompañado de su nieta.Yuri Cortez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“Esta situación política, junto con las graves condiciones socioeconómicas, es la que ha provocado el éxodo de millones de venezolanos”, explicó Jordi Cañas, representante del Parlamento Europeo en la misión de observadores, durante una conferencia de prensa celebrada el martes en Caracas.Sin embargo, la misión subrayó varias mejoras en materia democrática durante las elecciones del domingo, y llegó a calificar el sistema de procesamiento electrónico de los votos como “confiable”.Estados Unidos, que no reconoce el gobierno de Maduro, consideró que las elecciones habían sido muy fraudulentas, pero recomendó a los candidatos de la oposición que decidieron participar que conservaran los pocos cargos democráticos que aún tenían.El domingo, en las casillas de votación de Caracas, muchos electores manifestaron tener poca confianza en la imparcialidad de las elecciones pero comentaron que, en algunos casos, habían decidido presentarse porque consideraban que su voto era un último recurso en la lucha por el cambio.“Sé que todo el proceso está controlado”, comentó Blas Roa, un carpintero de Caracas de 55 años que votó por primera vez desde 2015. “Pero si no voto, no estoy contribuyendo en nada”.La mayoría de los venezolanos no se molestaron en hacerlo.Solo el 42 por ciento de los electores emitieron su voto, la menor participación en cualquier elección en la que haya contendido la oposición en las últimas dos décadas. Después de 20 años de gobierno socialista, pocas personas siguen albergando esperanzas de que se produzca un cambio radical, en vez de eso se están enfocando en aprovechar la nueva apertura económica con el fin de mejorar sus precarios ingresos.La apatía fomentada por el gobierno resultó ser la mejor arma de Maduro en las elecciones, aseveró el líder opositor Freddy Superlano, quien contendió por la gobernación del estado ganadero de Barinas, el cual solía ser un importante bastión del Partido Socialista y es el estado natal del fundador del partido, Hugo Chávez.El martes en la tarde, la contienda todavía era demasiado cerrada como para declarar a algún ganador.Según Superlano, el resultado habría sido diferente si las facciones de la oposición hubieran apartado sus recelos para organizar una campaña conjunta.“Estamos luchando no contra un candidato, sino contra todo el poder del Estado”, señaló vía telefónica desde Barinas.Isayen Herrera More

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      In Venezuela’s Flawed Vote, Maduro Shows One Way to Retain Power

      by

      European observers said the elections were neither free nor fair. They showed how President Nicolás Maduro’s government, however unpopular, can win by excluding and splitting opponents.CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela’s regional elections on Sunday were distorted by an uneven playing field, violence and injunctions against opposition leaders, European Union election observers said on Tuesday.But the mere presence of independent international monitors, the first in 15 years to witness a Venezuelan vote, underlined how profoundly President Nicolás Maduro has cemented himself into power in Venezuela since taking office in 2013.After years of suppressing dissent with force and subverting the vestiges of Venezuela’s democratic institutions, Mr. Maduro has perfected a political system where he no longer has much fear of international scrutiny when competing against carefully calibrated opponents, according to analysts and opposition leaders.The government showed that by banning the most prominent and popular opposition leaders from running for office, dividing opposition parties, encouraging voter apathy and keeping a loyal minority dependent on government handouts, it can win elections without resorting to outright fraud — even with minimal popular support.The ruling Socialist Party won at least 19 of Venezuela’s 23 governorships, as well as the majority of mayoral offices, despite presiding over a destroyed economy and having the support, polls show, of only about 15 percent of the people. One in five Venezuelans has fled the country under Mr. Maduro’s rule, and 95 percent of those who remain don’t earn enough to meet basic needs, according to a study by the country’s main universities.The ruling party’s sweep was greatly aided by the divisions within the opposition. Some opposition leaders boycotted the vote, as most of them did in other recent elections. Those who chose to participate divided votes with factions that had made pacts with Mr. Maduro or adopted a softer line against the president to take advantage of the economic liberalization that he has allowed in recent years.The European Union observation mission said Tuesday that it could not call Sunday’s vote free or fair, in part because of the unfair advantages enjoyed by the ruling party, and the lack of rule of law.President Nicolás Maduro entering a polling station in Caracas with his granddaughter.Yuri Cortez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“There’s a political situation that’s together with the grave socioeconomic situation has provoked the exodus of millions of Venezuelans,” Jordi Cañas, the representative of the European Parliament with the observer mission, said on Tuesday at a news conference in the capital, Caracas.The mission, however, highlighted several democratic improvements in Sunday’s elections, going as far as to call the country’s electronic vote processing system “reliable.”The United States, which does not recognize Mr. Maduro’s government, called the election deeply flawed, but commended the opposition candidates who decided to participate to keep the few democratic offices they still held.At polling places in Caracas on Sunday, many voters expressed little confidence in the fairness of the election, but said they had decided to show up anyway, in some cases because they viewed their vote as their last tool in a fight for change.“I know the whole process is controlled,” said Blas Roa, 55, a carpenter in Caracas, who voted for the first time since 2015. “But if I don’t vote, I’m not doing anything.”Most Venezuelans didn’t bother.Only 42 percent of voters cast ballots, the lowest turnout in any election in which the opposition had participated in the last two decades. After 20 years of Socialist rule, few in the country still nurture hopes of radical change, focusing instead on taking advantage of the new economic freedoms to improve their precarious livelihoods.That government-induced apathy ended up being Mr. Maduro’s biggest weapon in the elections, said the opposition leader Freddy Superlano, who ran for governor in the ranching state of Barinas, once a major Socialist Party bastion and home of the party’s founder, Hugo Chávez.That contest remained too close to call Tuesday afternoon. The outcome would have been different, Mr. Superlano said, if opposition factions had put aside their misgivings and mounted a concerted campaign.“We’re fighting not against the candidate, but against all the power of the state,” he said by telephone from Barinas.Isayen Herrera More