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    The Meaning of Germany’s Election

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    We examine the role of immigration in the outcome.Germany yesterday became the latest country where voters rejected a left-leaning government largely because of their unhappiness over immigration and the economy.Germany’s next chancellor is likely to be Friedrich Merz, a former corporate lawyer who has promised to crack down on migration, cut taxes and regulation and adopt a hawkish policy toward Russia. Merz leads a center-right alliance that finished first in yesterday’s election, with 29 percent of the vote. A far-right party, Alternative for Germany, that promises even tougher immigration policies — but is friendly toward Russia — finished second, with 21 percent of the vote.The center-left Social Democrats, who led the government for the past four years, tumbled to third place, with 16 percent of the vote. It was their worst showing in a national election since at least 1890.Merz now faces the challenge of putting together a coalition that includes more than half of the seats in the German Parliament. Like other mainstream politicians, he has vowed to exclude the far right from his coalition because of its extremism, including its embrace of slogans and symbols with Nazi overtones. You can read more about the coalition scenarios here. You can also read more about Merz.Two big issuesThe campaign was dominated by two issues that have also shaped recent politics in the United States and many other parts of Europe: immigration and the economy.In Germany, the share of the population born in another country has reached nearly 20 percent, up from 12.5 percent in 2015. The increases have brought rapid change to communities. And although many recent immigrants have fared well in school and in the job market, many others have not.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      On the Ropes, Olaf Scholz Keeps Punching

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      The German chancellor, who defied calls to step aside after his government fell apart, is down in the polls but insisting he can still win.A month ago, no one would have ever mistaken Germany’s often taciturn chancellor for an aggressive political campaigner. But prowling the stage in a dark suit and open shirt with a microphone in hand, Olaf Scholz certainly looked like one on Friday night.At a nearly euphoric rally for someone trailing in the polls, Mr. Scholz spoke for 50 minutes before supporters in Dortmund, one of only two German cities where his center-left Social Democrats are projected to win the majority.He trumpeted his government’s achievements, like raising the minimum wage and bridging the loss of Russian gas after the invasion in Ukraine. He told the crowd he could still win. And he took a swipe at President Trump.“If you translate what ‘transactional’ means specifically,” Mr. Scholz said, alighting on a word often used to describe the American president’s approach to politics, “it means I only think of myself and I only do what benefits me.”Nearly 2,000 Social Democrats jumped to their feet and cheered. “I thought he was in good fighting form,” said Elisabeth Schnieder, 69, who joined Mr. Scholz Social Democrats, or S.P.D., after she retired from her job as a senior care aide.“I just wish he had shown that side earlier.”The Friday rally was Mr. Scholz’s last of the campaign ahead of Sunday’s vote. It was also possibly the last of his career.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Shocked by Trump, Europe Turns Its Hopes to Germany’s Election

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      Germany’s economy is stalled and its politics fractured. But it sees an opening for a new chancellor to lead Europe’s response to a changing America.In the final days of Germany’s abbreviated election campaign, the task facing its next chancellor has snapped into focus. It appears far more existential, for the country and for all of Europe, than almost anyone initially imagined.Germany’s coalition government came apart just a day after the U.S. presidential election last November. As a result, a vote that was supposed to come this September is now set for Sunday. German leaders quickly realized that meant their campaign would be largely fought in the early days of President Trump’s second term.They were nervous from the start. But they were nowhere near prepared.In just a few short weeks, the new Trump team has cut Ukraine and Europe out of negotiations to end the war with Russia, and embraced an aggressive, expansionist regime in Moscow that now breathes down Europe’s neck. It also threatened to withdraw troops that have protected Germany for decades.How Germans vote will now be a critical component of Europe’s response to Mr. Trump’s new world order, and will resonate far beyond their borders.“It is not just another change of government” under Mr. Trump, Friedrich Merz, the leading candidate for chancellor, warned on Friday after taking the stage for an arena rally in the western town of Oberhausen, “but a complete redrawing of the world map.”Friedrich Merz at a campaign event in Oberhausen, Germany, on Friday.Martin Meissner/Associated PressWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Scholz Calls for Confidence Vote, in Step Toward German Elections

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      Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had few alternatives after his three-party coalition broke up, is widely expected to lose when Parliament takes up the measure on Monday.Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany called for a confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday, taking the first formal step toward disbanding the German government and leading to snap elections likely to oust him from office.The move, culminating in a parliamentary vote on Monday, became all but necessary in November, when the chancellor fired his finance minister, precipitating the breakup of his fragile three-party coalition.“In a democracy, it is the voters who determine the course of future politics. When they go to the polls, they decide how we will answer the big questions that lie ahead of us,” Mr. Scholz said from the chancellery in Berlin on Wednesday.Mr. Scholz expects to lose the vote. The collapse of the government along with the early election on Feb. 23 amount to an extraordinary political moment in a country long known for stable governments.The political turbulence in Germany and the fall last week of the government in France have left the European Union with a vacuum of leadership at critical moment: It is facing challenges from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the imminent return to the presidency of Donald J. Trump in the United States.Mr. Trump has threatened a trade war with Europe and has consistently expressed skepticism about America’s commitment to the NATO alliance that has been the guarantor of security on the continent for 75 years.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Solingen, Germany, Becomes Reluctant Symbol of Migration Battles

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      After a stabbing attack that prosecutors say was committed by a Syrian who was rejected for asylum, the city of Solingen finds itself at the center of a longstanding debate.Two days after a deadly knife attack in the German city of Solingen, the youth wing of the far-right AfD party put out a call for supporters to stage a protest demanding the government do more to deport migrants denied asylum.The authorities had identified the suspect in the stabbing spree that killed three people and wounded eight others as a Syrian man who was in the country despite having been denied asylum and who prosecutors suspected had joined the Islamic State. The attack tore at the fabric of the ethnically diverse, working-class city in the country’s west.But even before the right-wing protests had begun on Sunday, scores of counterprotesters had gathered in front of the group home that housed the suspect and other refugees. They carried banners that read, “Welcome to refugees” and “Fascism is not an opinion, but a crime,” and railed against those who would use the attack to further inflame an already fraught national debate over immigration and refugees.The dueling protests — not unlike those recently in Britain — are emblematic of Germany’s longstanding tug of war over how to deal with a large influx of asylum seekers in recent years. The country needs immigration to bolster its work force, but the government often finds itself on the defensive against an increasingly powerful AfD.The party and its supporters are attempting to use the stabbing attack to bolster their broader anti-immigrant message, with some blaming the assault on “uncontrolled migration” even before the nationality of the suspect was known.“They are trying to use this tragedy to foment fear,” said Matthias Marsch, 67, a Solingen resident who was at Sunday’s counterprotest and worries about a rightward drift in society. “I’m here to stand against that.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Merkel’s Party to Choose New Leader, and Possible Successor as Chancellor

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyMerkel’s Party to Choose New Leader, and Possible Successor as ChancellorAfter nearly a year of jockeying, no clear front-runner has emerged to lead Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. Three men are vying for delegates’ votes this weekend.Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, shown last month, has led her country for the past 15 years. She stepped down as party leader in 2018.Credit…Michael Kappeler/DPA, via Associated PressJan. 15, 2021, 9:28 a.m. ETBERLIN — Germany’s largest political party will choose a new leader on Saturday, with the winner well positioned to succeed Angela Merkel as the next chancellor of Europe’s leading economy.Regardless of the result, it will signal a new chapter for Germany and Europe, where the staid but steady leadership of Ms. Merkel has been a constant for the past 15 years. She earned respect for holding Europe together through repeated crises and, most recently, her deft handling of the coronavirus pandemic over the past year.“In a sense, an era is ending,” said Herfried Münkler, a political scientist at Humboldt University in Berlin. “But in certain basic positions, such as the geopolitical situation and the economic conditions within the E.U., that all remains unchanged, regardless of who’s the chancellor.”German voters will elect a new government on Sept. 26, and Ms. Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union remains the country’s most popular party, according to a survey by Infratest/Dimap last week.Ms. Merkel led the party for 18 years, stepping down in 2018. She was replaced by one-time heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who announced her own departure nearly a year ago over internal party strife. Since then, three men have been jockeying for the leadership position. But no clear front-runner has emerged.While all three candidates appear to have a lot in common — all male, all Roman Catholic, all from the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia — each harbors a divergent vision of the future of the party that has governed Germany for 50 of the past 70 years.Here is a look at the candidates and where their leadership could take Germany:Leadership skills have been the strongest campaign point for the governor of Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia state, Armin Laschet.Credit…Pool photo by Marius BeckerArmin Laschet — the CentristIn terms of experience, Mr. Laschet, the governor of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017, has the strongest hand. The only candidate who has won an election and served as a governor, the 59-year-old Mr. Laschet has nevertheless struggled to generate enthusiasm for his campaign.He announced his candidacy last February, flanked by Ms. Merkel’s health minister, Jens Spahn, who ranked above the chancellor as Germany’s most popular politician in a survey in late December. Mr. Spahn had sought the party leadership position in 2018, but this time around, he pledged to back Mr. Laschet.The popularity of Mr. Spahn and another man who is not vying for party leadership, Markus Söder, the governor of Bavaria, has led top Christian Democratic officials to sever the decision over who will run for chancellor in elections from the party leader vote on Saturday. That means that whoever is chosen party leader will not necessarily be the next chancellor.Mr. Spahn’s backing of Mr. Laschet was supposed to garner support from those who saw in the 40-year-old Mr. Spahn a chance to rejuvenate the party. But instead, it has shifted the focus to a possible scenario in which the health minister could run for chancellor while Mr. Laschet remains party leader.Mr. Laschet is seen as the candidate most likely to continue Ms. Merkel’s centrist style of stable politics. He is a strong supporter of German industry and shares the chancellor’s idea that Germany benefits from diversity and integration.Staunchly pro-European, Mr. Laschet also considers a strong relationship with Russia as central to Germany’s success, although he views the United States and NATO as essential to lasting security in Europe.Friedrich Merz has not held political office since 2002, when Ms. Merkel ousted him as leader of the Christian Democrats’ party caucus in Parliament.Credit…Pool photo by Michael KappelerFriedrich Merz — the ConservativeMr. Merz, a former lawmaker, is viewed as the candidate most likely to break with Ms. Merkel’s style of leadership and return the party to its more traditional conservative identity. At the same time, he has had to reassure voters that the would not move “one millimeter” toward the far-right Alternative for Germany.Mr. Merz, 65, has not held political office since 2002, when Ms. Merkel pushed him out as leader of the Christian Democrats’ party caucus in Parliament. Three years later, he left politics for the private sector, where he amassed a personal fortune that he has played down in the campaign, portraying himself as upper-middle class instead of a millionaire.He is the least popular with women, who flocked to the party under Ms. Merkel’s leadership and became an important voting bloc. Many recall that Mr. Merz voted against criminalizing rape within marriage in 1997, and Anja Karliczek, Germany’s minister for education, has warned that his penchant for a sharp quip on hot-button issues such as immigration could threaten party cohesion.But that style is popular with young conservatives and the party’s right flank, which welcomes his criticism of Ms. Merkel’s decision to take in nearly 1 million migrants in 2015 and his calls to return to tighter fiscal policy.A proponent of strong ties between Europe and the United States, Mr. Merz views a deeply integrated European Union more skeptically and criticized the recent 1.8 trillion euro, or $2.2 trillion, stimulus and budget package agreed to in Brussels, which included issuing joint debt — long a no-go for Germany. Norbert Röttgen, a former environment minister, has focused on issues that appeal to younger voters, including climate change and digitization.Credit…Pool photo by Christoph SoederNorbert Röttgen — the Dark HorseMr. Röttgen, a former environment minister under Ms. Merkel, has been seen as less of a favorite, although he recently had a strong showing in polls. It is probably not enough, however, to ensure him a clear shot at the party leadership. Still, the 55-year-old foreign policy expert could carve out a path to the top if the race comes down to a runoff between him and Mr. Merz.Mr. Röttgen lost his post as environment minister in 2012 after a poor performance in the race for governor of North Rhine-Westphalia that year. Since then, he has become a leading foreign policy expert in Parliament and took many by surprise when he entered the race for the party leadership.Mr. Röttgen has built a following among younger voters and women, pointing to his role in working to transform the German economy to one powered by green energy and emphasizing the importance of improving digital infrastructure and know-how to position the country for a future where it can compete with China or the United States.Mr. Röttgen says he wants to build on the issues of diversity and equality championed by Ms. Merkel, ensuring the conservative Christian Democrats remain relevant in the face of a rise in popularity of the Greens, especially among young urban voters. He is in favor of continued European integration and strong ties to Washington, but he says that Germany needs to take a stronger role in the trans-Atlantic relationship.He many have enhanced his appeal to party delegates who have an eye on the general election in the fall with his willingness to cede the candidacy for chancellor if it is in the party’s best interests, stressing the importance of teamwork over individualism.Christopher F. Schuetze More