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    Trump’s Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies and Markets Off Balance

    On Tuesday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick went on Fox Business to reassure nervous allies and even more twitchy investors that the Trump administration was negotiating a deal to avoid tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and that the president is “gonna work something out with them.”“It’s not gonna be a pause” for Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs, he insisted. “None of that pause stuff.”On Thursday, the world got what the president characterized as more of that pause stuff.Mr. Trump’s announcement that he had a good conversation with Mexico’s president, and would delay most tariffs until April 2, was only the latest example of the punish-by-whim nature of the second Trump presidency. A few hours after the Mexico announcement, Canada got a break too, even as Mr. Trump on social media accused its departing prime minister, Justin Trudeau, of using “the Tariff problem” to “run again for Prime Minister.”“So much fun to watch!” he wrote.Indeed, it appears that Mr. Trump is having enormous fun turning tariffs on and off like tap water. But others are developing a case of Trump-induced whiplash, not least investors, who sent stock prices down again on Thursday amid the uncertainty over what Mr. Trump’s inconstancy means for the global economy. (A later rise in stock futures pointed to rosier expectations for Friday.)When the White House finally released the text of Mr. Trump’s orders on Thursday evening, it appeared that some of the tariffs — those covered in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and celebrated in his first term — were indeed permanently suspended. Other tariffs were merely paused.Most everyone involved was confused, which may well have been the point.As Mr. Trump hands down tariff determinations and then pulls them back for a month or so, world leaders call to plead their case, a bit like vassal states appealing to a larger power. Chief executives put in calls as well, making it clear that Mr. Trump is the one you need to deal with if you are bringing in car parts from Canada or chips from China.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump administration briefing: Trump changes tack on tariffs – again – as US plans to close consulates

    Donald Trump has performed another reversal on tariffs, delaying duties on many goods from Canada and Mexico again. Trump said the reversal has “nothing to do” with turbulence in the stock market in recent days, as investors weighed his economic plans. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Thursday. “I’m not even looking at the market,” he claimed.It was also a day where the focus fell on the power wielded by Elon Musk and the president’s plans for US consulates in Europe. Trump shelves Canada-Mexico tariffs – for a timeDonald Trump pulled back from his trade war with Canada and Mexico on Thursday, temporarily delaying tariffs on many goods from the two countries once again. Two days after imposing sweeping tariffs on all imports from his country’s closest trading partners, the US president announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April.Read the full storyElon Musk says he isn’t to blame for mass firings of federal workersElon Musk is telling Republican lawmakers in private meetings that he is not to blame for the mass firings of federal workers that are causing uproar across the country, while Donald Trump reportedly told his cabinet secretaries on Thursday that they are ultimately in charge of hiring and firings at their agencies – not billionaire aide Musk.The men appeared to be making parallel efforts to distance Musk from radical job slashing made over the last two months. This despite the tech entrepreneur boasting about cuts, recommending the US “delete entire agencies” and taking questions on the issue alongside the US president, then wielding a chainsaw at an event to symbolize his efforts – all amid legal challenges and skepticism from experts.Trump said on Thursday he has instructed department secretaries to work with Doge but to “be very precise” about which workers will stay or go, using a “scalpel rather than a hatchet”.Read the full storyUS plans to close European consulates and cut state department workforceThe US state department is preparing to shut down a number of consulates that are mainly in western Europe in the coming months and looking to reduce its workforce globally, multiple US officials said on Thursday.The state department is also looking into potentially merging a number of its expert bureaus at its headquarters in Washington that are working in areas such as human rights, refugees, global criminal justice, women’s issues and efforts to counter human trafficking, the officials said.Reuters reported last month that US missions around the world had been asked to look into reducing US and locally employed staff by at least 10% as Donald Trump and his billionaire aide Elon Musk have unleashed an unprecedented cost-cutting effort across the US federal workforce.Read the full story‘Not a king’: Trump is told firing of labor chief is illegalA federal court ruled that Trump’s abrupt firing of a former senior official at the top US labor watchdog was illegal, and ordered that she be reinstated. Gwynne Wilcox was the first member of the National Labor Relations Board to be removed by a US president since the board’s inception in 1935.The framers of the US constitution “made clear that no one in our system of government was meant to be king – the president included – and not just in name only”, the judge Beryl A Howell, wrote in the ruling.Read the full storyMusk and Texas governor celebrate after worker fired over pronounsThe Texas governor, Greg Abbott, and, later, Elon Musk showed support on Wednesday for the firing of a state employee who refused to remove his pronouns from his work email signature. Frank Zamora, 31, was let go from his job as a program manager at the Texas real estate commission.Abbott celebrated the move on X. Musk then replied to Abbott’s post with two fire emojis.Read the full storyUS attorney threatens top law school over DEIA Trump-appointed US attorney has told Georgetown – one of the country’s top law schools – to immediately end diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) efforts, warning that his justice department office will not hire students or other affiliates associated with a university that utilizes DEI.In an extraordinary letter sent to the dean, the recently appointed interim US attorney for the District of Columbia, Ed Martin, said he was investigating the academic institution after it had come to his “attention reliably” that they were teaching and promoting DEI.Read the full storyDoJ investigating California universities over alleged antisemitismThe US Department of Justice is investigating the University of California system for possible antisemitic discrimination after demonstrations against Israel’s war in Gaza took place on campuses last year.Read the full storyDemocrats join in censure of Al GreenThe House voted on Thursday to censure Al Green for disrupting Trump’s joint session address, with a handful of Democrats voting to condemn the Democratic Texas representative along with Republicans.The House voted 224-198, with 10 Democrats voting in favor of the censure, which accuses Green of a “breach of proper conduct”.Read the full storyCanadians protest against US toxic wasteThe proposed expansion of a Quebec landfill that accepts hazardous waste from the United States has ignited a turf war between the Quebec provincial government and local leaders, who say they oppose putting US trash into a local peat bog. Local leaders are protesting against the move – saying the province is capitulating to a US company in the midst of a tariff war between Canada and the United States.Read the full storySmall US agency stands up to MuskMembers of Elon Musk’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) unit were barred from entering a small, independent federal agency promoting economic development in Africa on Wednesday after a tense standoff with federal staff they had been sent to fire.Workers at the US African Development Foundation (USADF), which Donald Trump has ordered to be closed, refused to allow Doge operatives to enter after they arrived at its Washington headquarters.Read the full storyWhat else happened today:

    In an escalation of his pressure campaign, Trump said the US will not fight for Nato allies who don’t spend enough on their own defense. “I think it’s common sense,” the president said. “They don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.”

    The state department is hunting for evidence that foreign students who express support for Palestinians under Israeli occupation while studying in the US are “pro-Hamas”, and can have their visas revoked, based on an AI review of their social media accounts, Axios reports.

    Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he will “probably” extend TikTok’s deadline to find a US buyer or face a ban.
    Catching up? Here’s what happened on 5 March. More

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    Cheap goods ‘not essence of American dream’, Trump official says amid tariff price fears

    Buying cheap products is “not the essence of the American dream”, Donald Trump’s top economic official has declared, amid warnings that the US president’s trade wars risk increasing prices.The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, defended the new administration’s aggressive trade strategy on Thursday, two days after it imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico and hiked duties on China.Top retail CEOs have cautioned the move would swiftly lead to higher prices for US consumers. Trump, too, has acknowledged there would be “a little disturbance” as a result.During an appearance at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, Bessent conceded there could be what he referred to as “a one-time price adjustment” as a result of Trump’s tariffs.“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream,” he said. The American dream was “the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, economic security”, he added. “For too long, designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this.”It comes a few days after Bessent said he was “laser-focused” on high prices in the US. At the weekend, he announced the treasury would recruit an “affordability czar” to help address the issue.“I think President Trump said that he’ll own the economy in six or 12 months, but I can tell you that we are working to get these prices down every day,” Bessent told Face the Nation on CBS.The US president has already watered down key parts of this week’s US trade onslaught, suspending tariffs on Mexico and Canada for carmakers on Wednesday, before temporarily halting tariffs on many other goods from the two countries on Thursday.Trump has repeatedly pledged to rapidly bring down prices for consumers, and declared during a joint address to Congress on Tuesday evening that he was “fighting every day” to “make America affordable again”. More

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    Trump temporarily spares carmakers from US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico

    Donald Trump has temporarily spared carmakers from sweeping US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, one day after an economic strike on the US’s two biggest trading partners sparked warnings of widespread price increases and disruption.The US president extended his aggressive trade strategy at midnight on Tuesday by targeting the country’s two closest neighbors with duties of 25%.US retail giants predicted that prices were “highly likely” to start rising on store shelves almost immediately, raising questions about Trump’s promises to “make America affordable again” after years of heightened inflation.After a call with top executives at General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, however, Trump approved a one-month exemption from tariffs on “any autos coming through” the US, Mexico and Canada, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, announced on Wednesday.The exemption has been granted “at the request of the companies”, Leavitt told reporters, “so they are not at an economic disadvantage”.While Trump has claimed tariffs will embolden US industry by forcing global firms to build factories in the US, Ford CEO Jim Farley publicly cautioned last month that imposing steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico could “blow a hole” in the country’s auto industry.Shares in large carmakers rose sharply, with GM up 7.2%, Ford up 5.8% and Stellantis up 9% in New York. The benchmark S&P 500 increased 1.1% on Wall Street.A separate call between Trump and Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, did not lead to any larger breakthrough, however. Trudeau “largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies”, Trump declared on his Truth Social platform after they spoke. “These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!”Trudeau insisted there had been improvements at the border, the US president claimed, adding that he told him this was “not good enough”.During Trump’s joint address to Congress on Tuesday evening, he acknowledged that tariffs would cause disruption. There will be “a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that”, he said.He blamed cost of living challenges on his predecessor, Joe Biden, from whom he claimed to have inherited “an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare”.The US economy has, in fact, remained resilient in recent years, and inflation has fallen dramatically from its peak – at the highest level in a generation – three years ago.“Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families,” said Trump. “As president, I am fighting every day to reverse this damage and make America affordable again.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump spoke on Wednesday with Trudeau. “Even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do,” Trudeau told Trump publicly after the US imposed tariffs this week.Trump had initially pledged to target Canada and Mexico with tariffs on his first day back in office. Upon his return, however, he said he was considering imposing the tariffs at the start of February. Last month, he offered Canada and Mexico a one-month delay at the 11th hour.Trump and his allies claim that higher tariffs on US imports from across the world will help “Make America great again”, by enabling it to obtain political and economic concessions from allies and rivals on the global stage.But businesses, both inside the US and worldwide, have warned of widespread disruption if the Trump administration pushes ahead with this strategy.Since winning November’s presidential election, the president has focused on China, Canada and Mexico, threatening the three markets with steep duties on their exports unless they reduced the “unacceptable” levels of illegal drugs crossing into the US. More

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    Gaming Out Trump’s Next Tariff Moves

    In his address to Congress, the president made clear that his new trade levies were here to stay, acknowledging it might create “a little disturbance.” Analysts forecast what that might look like.President Trump’s tariffs have jolted global markets and the business world, but he has given no indication he’ll retreat on the levies.Doug Mills/The New York Times“A little disturbance” For months, the debate gripping board rooms, Wall Street and world capitals was whether to take President Trump at his word on tariffs. For a while, the markets rallied as if he were just bluffing.He wasn’t. In an address before Congress last night, Trump said that tariffs would protect American jobs and enrich the nation. He also acknowledged that “there will be a little disturbance. But we’re OK with that.”What might a “a little disturbance” look like? DealBook has taken on the task of gaming out what could happen next. (A warning to free-trade advocates: this could be tough reading.)More tariffs are coming, trade experts say. Few countries, or companies, will be spared. For example, if the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China stick, then Europe will be next. Such a scenario is “unavoidable,” George Saravelos, the global head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note on Tuesday. European companies are already bracing for the next wave.“Trump has appeared to be less amenable to carve-outs in this second term,” David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura, told DealBook. That could bode poorly, he added, for Britain, whose prime minister, Keir Starmer, met with Trump at the White House last week where a trade deal was discussed. “I don’t think Keir Starmer should just feel safe right now,” Seif said.Expect more market turmoil. “These tariffs would represent a major negative global growth shock, sufficient to push many economies into recession,” Saravelos wrote, adding that it’s time to stop thinking of them as a negotiating tactic. (The recessionary risk for the United States may be remote, but concerns are growing about the tariffs’ potential stagflationary effects.)We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Trump to defend trade war in major address to Congress tonight, top adviser says – live

    Jason Miller, a top adviser to Donald Trump, says the president will defend his trade war to Americans when he speaks to a joint session of Congress tonight.“I would say that he’s going to lean into it and he’s going to talk about how increasing tariffs can actually go and close the trade deficits … [in] January we saw a record trade deficit, particularly when it comes to countries such as Canada, Mexico, China. And how, if we don’t go and do this now, we’re going to be completely wiped out by certain industries here in the United States,” Miller told CNN in an interview.“Ultimately the costs on this are going to be carried by the producers and the foreign countries as opposed to Americans,” he added, repeating a common argument of the administration that economists are skeptical of.Speaking to the former Trump advisor Larry Kudlow on Fox Business this hour, the US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said that talks with Canada and Mexico are ongoing, and an announcement on a middle ground solution on tariffs could be announced on Wednesday.“Both the Mexicans and the Canadians were on the phone with me all day today, trying to show that they’ll do better”, Lutnick said, “and the president is listening because you know he’s very, very fair and very reasonable. So I think he’s gonna work something out with them. It’s not gonna be a pause, none of that pause stuff. But I think he’s gonna figure out, ‘You do more, and I’ll meet you in the middle some way’. And we’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow. So, somewhere in the middle will likely be the outcome. The president moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way.”The Fox Business host Kudlow was the director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration.In addition to the mass firings of federal workers, the Trump administration’s plan to slash the federal government apparently includes a real estate fire sale.On its website, the General Services Administration, which manages federal properties, said it has identified 443 properties, totaling more than 80 million square feet that “are not core to government operations” now “designated for disposal.”The list of buildings to be put up for sale includes some of the most iconic properties in Washington, including the headquarters of the Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Labor Department.Reuters reports that the agency said sales could potentially save more than $430 million in annual operating costs. The move could, however, put federal agencies at risk of exploitation by private landlords.The list also includes the Washington headquarters for the Department of Energy, the Department of Agriculture, the American Red Cross building and the Office of Personnel Management. GSA’s own headquarters were also on the list.It also includes major office buildings in Atlanta, Cleveland, Los Angeles and Chicago, including the landmark Chicago Loop Post Office designed by Ludwig Mies van der Rohe.The largest union of federal workers says that fired probationary employees must be reinstated, after the office of personnel management (OPM) amended a memo that had ordered their termination.“OPM’s revision of its Jan. 20 memo is a clear admission that it unlawfully directed federal agencies to carry out mass terminations of probationary employees – which aligns with Judge Alsup’s recent decision in our lawsuit challenging these illegal firings,” the American Federation of Government Employees president, Everett Kelley, said in a statement.“Every agency should immediately rescind these unlawful terminations and reinstate everyone who was illegally fired.”Here’s more about the Trump administration’s about-face:Democrats have seized on reports that congressman Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP’s campaign operation, has asked lawmakers to stop holding in-person town halls after several incidences where constituents aired grievances over Donald Trump’s haphazard cuts to the federal government.Politico reports that Hudson made the request in a private meeting today, though lawmakers don’t have to follow it. In response, top Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to hide while supporting unpopular policies. Here’s minority leader Hakeem Jeffries:
    House Republicans have just been ordered to stop holding town hall meetings. They can run from their extreme agenda. We will never let them hide.
    And Katarina Flicker, press secretary for the House Majority Pac, which supports Democratic candidates:
    If you’re going to have the audacity to raise prices and rip away health care from millions of Americans, you should at least have the courage to face your constituents. House Republicans are cowards.
    The nation’s largest union of auto workers said it supported Donald Trump’s tariffs on major US trading partners and was working with its administration “to end the free trade disaster”.The statement from the United Auto Workers comes after it endorsed Joe Biden’s re-election bid and its president, Shawn Fain, campaigned for Democrats last year. The political winds have since shifted, and the UAW says it is in favor of Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada as a way to undo the damage of free trade agreements that it claims undermined American manufacturing. From its statement:
    Tariffs are a powerful tool in the toolbox for undoing the injustice of anti-worker trade deals. We are glad to see an American president take aggressive action on ending the free trade disaster that has dropped like a bomb on the working class.
    There’s been a lot of talk of these tariffs “disrupting” the economy. But if corporate America chooses to price-gouge the American consumer or attack the American worker because they don’t want to pay their fair share, corporate America bears the blame for that decision. The working class suffered all the pain of NAFTA, and we won’t suffer all the pain of undoing NAFTA. We want to see corporate America, from the auto industry and beyond, recommit to the working class that makes the products and generates the profits that keep this country running.
    The UAW is in active negotiations with the Trump Administration about their plans to end the free trade disaster. We look forward to working with the White House to shape the auto tariffs in April to benefit the working class. We want to see serious action that will incentivize companies to change their behavior, reinvest in America, and stop cheating the American worker, the American consumer, and the American taxpayer.
    Earlier in the day, the Detroit automakers’ trade association pleaded for exemptions from the tariffs and warned they would undermine US car manufacturers.Add Republican former senator Pat Toomey to those who don’t think much of Donald Trump’s levying of tariffs on Mexico and Canada.On X, Toomey, who represented Pennsylvania until 2023, said:
    With his multiple rounds of tariffs, and the inevitable retaliations, President Trump has wiped out all of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gains since his election. Next come higher prices and job losses.
    Democratic lawmakers are split over whether to attend Donald Trump’s speech to a joint session of Congress this evening, and the degree to which they should express their dislike of what he will say.Many lawmakers plan to be there, but bring along guests with personal stories that can speak to the risks and failures of Trump’s ideology. Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi said she invited Elena Hung, an advocate for Medicaid, the insurance program for poor and disabled Americans that Trump wants to cut:
    Elena Hung’s courageous daughter, Xiomara, was born with a number of serious medical conditions and is thriving today as a result of access to quality health care – including Medicaid …
    At a time when Medicaid is under assault by those who seek to give tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations, I am honored that Xiomara’s story will be told through Elena’s attendance as my guest to this year’s address to a joint session of Congress.
    Some Democrats want to stage protests during the speech, not unlike the heckling Joe Biden got last year when he gave what turned out to be his final State of the Union address. Axios has more about their plans, which are not popular with minority leader Hakeem Jeffries:
    Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios. Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.
    A wide array of props – including noisemakers – has also been floated: Signs with anti-Trump or anti-DOGE messages – just as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech last year that said “war criminal.” Eggs or empty egg cartons to highlight how inflation is driving up the price of eggs.
    Finally, some lawmakers are boycotting the address. Among them is progressive Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said on Bluesky she’d be “live posting and chatting with you all here instead. Then going on [Instagram] Live after.”The magnitude and scale of President Trump’s decision to go ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico has had economists recalling the Tariff Act (1930) signed by President Herbert Hoover.It saw average tariffs jump by 20% for thousands of different imported goods, as the US tried to protect its depressed agricultural sector from foreign competition.Proposed by senator Reed Smoot and representative Willis C Hawley, the bill, reported in the Manchester Guardian (below) was opposed by more than onethousand economists, who warned Hoover of a dramatic downturn in US trade with other countries, especially from those that retaliated.Nonetheless Hoover signed it into law, with some Congress members, realising the vote was quite close, engaging in logrolling to get something for their constituency in return for their support.The impact of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was, as predicted, highly damaging to the United States, with estimates of imported goods, many of which were needed by US industry and commerce, plummeting by nearly half.The tariffs also caused shock waves to global trade as other nations deployed protectionist policies, resulting in an estimated half of the 25% decline in world trade.Elon Musk will brief House republicans tonight about criticism of Doge cuts, Bloomberg News and the Hill report. Tonight at 7pm, Musk, who leads the so-called Department of Government Efficiency – which has been slashing the federal workforce and the budgets of federal agencies – will meet in the House basement with Republican lawmakers about complaints from their constituents about the mass firings.Mass firings have taken place at the Department of Veteran Affairs, Defense Department, Department of Education, Department of Health and Human Services, the IRS, National Parks, and more.In a message to employees on Monday, the newly confirmed secretary of education, Linda McMahon, a billionaire ex-wrestling executive, laid out the “final mission” for the department as Donald Trump threatens to dismantle the agency.“My vision is aligned with the President’s: to send education back to the states and empower all parents to choose an excellent education for their children,” wrote McMahon, a co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), the professional wrestling organisation. “This is our opportunity to perform one final, unforgettable public service to future generations of students.”The message comes as Trump is reportedly finalizing plans to issue an executive order to eliminate the 45-year-old US Department of Education and eliminate or reorganize the department’s functions and programs.Workers at the Department of Education called the email a “power grab” focused on privatization at the expense of children with disabilities and from low-income families.“It’s heartbreaking to read such a disingenuous, manipulative letter from the head of the agency,” said one employee who requested to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation. “I don’t read the letter to be an end to the department. It reads as a transformation into something sinister, a tool for the president to use to ensure his ideology is implemented by states and local governments at the risk of losing funding. It’s the exact overreach it’s purporting to stop.”You can read more on this story here:Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to respond to Canada’s announcement of retaliatory measures against the US after Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs plan: “Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!”Trump flippantly referring to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor” in his post underscores the president’s previous comments that he wants to annex Canada and make it the 51st US state.When asked what he would tell his constituents who have federal government jobs and are worried about the so-called department of government efficiency’s cuts to the federal workforce, Republican senator Tommy Tuberville told ABC News: “We’re going to have to suck it up.” He echoed Trump’s calls to “stop the bleeding” and spend less, even though this means it will hurt Americans. Federal employees make up 7.6% of the workforce Huntsville, Alabama. Many of these employees work at Nasa’s Marshall Space Flight Center.In response to the tariffs that went in effect today, which experts say will raise the price of goods, Tuberville said “there’s going to be pain” but that it was the best way forward for the country.Donald Trump has upended the United States’ relationship with three of its top trading partners by following through on his campaign promise to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Prime minister Justin Trudeau said the tariffs were “a very dumb thing to do” and announced Canada would impose retaliatory levies, while in Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would announce her nation’s response on Sunday. Trump defended the decision as necessary to restore domestic manufacturing, though his commerce secretary acknowledged they could drive prices higher in the short term. The president is expected to elaborate on the decision this evening, when he addresses the first joint session of Congress of his new term.Here’s what else has happened today so far:

    The CEOs of two large US retailers, Target and Best Buy, said they expected prices to go up as a result of Trump’s trade war.

    Ontario’s premier Doug Ford told the Wall Street Journal that he was imposing a 25% export tax on electricity sent to three US states, and might cut it off altogether if the tariffs linger.

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready to sign the minerals deal Trump was demanding, and acknowledged his White House meeting last week “did not go the way it was supposed to”.
    The Trump administration has backed down from its demand for federal agencies to fire employees on probation, even after many have already been let go.The decision comes as a federal judge temporarily halted the administration’s move, which was part of a larger effort to thin out the federal workforce and targeted at workers who were newly hired or promoted.In a revised memo, the office of personnel management instead instructed agency human resource chiefs to send them lists of workers on probation and determine whether those employees should be retained, without specifying that they be terminated. It’s unclear what this will mean for workers who have already been fired.The development was first reported by the Washington Post.Jason Miller, a top adviser to Donald Trump, says the president will defend his trade war to Americans when he speaks to a joint session of Congress tonight.“I would say that he’s going to lean into it and he’s going to talk about how increasing tariffs can actually go and close the trade deficits … [in] January we saw a record trade deficit, particularly when it comes to countries such as Canada, Mexico, China. And how, if we don’t go and do this now, we’re going to be completely wiped out by certain industries here in the United States,” Miller told CNN in an interview.“Ultimately the costs on this are going to be carried by the producers and the foreign countries as opposed to Americans,” he added, repeating a common argument of the administration that economists are skeptical of.Back in the US, more business leaders are warning consumers to expect higher prices as a result of Donald Trump’s trade war. Here’s more on that, from the Guardian’s Callum Jones and Leyland Cecco:Americans have been warned to brace for higher prices within days after Donald Trump pulled the trigger on Monday and imposed US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and hiked tariffs on China.Global stock markets came under pressure again on Tuesday, with leading indices falling sharply – and the benchmark S&P 500 losing all its post-election gains – as Canada, Mexico and China vowed to retaliate, and investors balked at the prospect of an acrimonious trade war.US retail giants predicted that prices were “highly likely” to start rising on shelves almost immediately after a 25% duty came into effect on exports from Mexico to the US.Most Canadian exports to the US also now face a 25% duty, with a 10% rate for energy products. The Trump administration imposed a 10% levy on all Chinese exports to the US last month, which has now been doubled to 20%.Trump, who won back the White House after pledging repeatedly to bring prices down, has acknowledged that his controversial trade strategy could lead them to rise. Consumers could face “some short-term disturbance”, the president conceded last month.With US retailers relying heavily on imports from Mexico and Canada to stock their shelves, top executives claimed they would have no choice but to increase prices.Justin Trudeau went on to accuse Donald Trump of seeking to destroy the Canadian economy to make the country easier to annex – something he insisted was “never going to happen”.“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will make it easier to annex us, is the second half of his thought. Now, first of all, that’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state, but yeah, he can do damage to the Canadian economy, and he started this morning,” Trudeau said.The prime minister warned that Americans will suffer in the trade war as well:
    As American families are going to find out, that’s going to hurt people on both sides of the border. Americans will lose jobs, Americans will be paying more for groceries, for gas, for cars, for homes, because we have always done best when we work together. So we are, of course, open to starting negotiations on the customer review, but let us not fool ourselves about what he seems to be wanting.
    Justin Trudeau also said that he did not believe Donald Trump’s insistence that tariffs were imposed in retaliation for Canada’s failure to combat fentanyl trafficking.“We have laid out extensive plans, actions, cooperations, including as recently as the past days in Washington, and they have always been very well received, and the numbers bear that out,” the prime minister said.“I think in what President Trump said yesterday, that there is nothing Canada or Mexico can do to avoid these tariffs, underlines very clearly what I think a lot of us have suspected for a long time, that these tariffs are not specifically about fentanyl, even though that is the legal justification he must use to actually move forward with these tariffs.” More

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    Tariffs can help US workers. But Trump’s doing them all wrong | Dustin Guastella

    In the run-up to the 2024 election, a lot of people were ringing alarms about Donald Trump’s tariffs. Kamala Harris called Trump’s policies a “tax on the American people” and warned of sky-high prices. According to the Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, they are “very bad for America and for the world”. His fellow Nobel laureate Paul Krugman called them “small, ugly, and stupid”. More recently, the whirlwind tariff drama of the past two months – first a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, then a 30-day “pause” on that policy, a plan to raise tariffs on steel, aluminum and agricultural goods, plus an across the board tariff hike on China – has generated yet more frenzied debate about the danger of tariffs.Observers aren’t wrong to criticize the US president’s policies. His proposed tariffs seem unlikely to improve what ails the US economy. Worse, applying tariffs as broadly as he’s proposed, and without any supplementary industrial strategy, does risk needlessly raising prices while acting like a big corporate giveaway. Yet, despite what elite economists say, tariffs can be sound, and progressive, economic policy.In fact, liberals might be surprised to learn that during his administration Joe Biden actually raised the highest tariffs in recent American history: a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Why? Because tariffs work.Tariffs are, simply put, taxes on certain imported goods, paid by the importer. The goal is to make foreign products more expensive than their Made-In-USA counterparts. This is why people refer to tariffs as “walls” that help “protect” domestic industry from global competition. Right now, China quickly and efficiently produces fleets of electric vehicles that are – thanks to the low cost of Chinese labor – a lot cheaper than the EVs made in the United States. Without tariffs, it would be impossible for US-made models to compete. Since making electric cars was a big goal for Biden, his administration raised an eye-watering tariff that would double the price of any Chinese-made import.The EV example is useful because it demonstrates the difference between Biden’s tariff policies and Trump’s.Trump has, for the most part, not focused on raising tariffs on particular imported goods but instead on all goods coming from certain countries. Mexico and Canada face across-the-board tariffs; China was already facing 10% tariffs, doubling to 20%. But raising the prices of all products from these countries doesn’t help develop any particular line of US manufacturing. Tariffs like these are both too broad and too small to make a positive impact. A 20% tariff on all Chinese goods might make it more expensive for Americans to continue to buy certain things from China. But nothing in that policy encourages Americans to buy American-made products; they might just as well find a Vietnamese supplier to avoid the tariff while continuing to reap the benefits of cheap labor. Moreover, it’s possible that some Chinese manufacturers will simply eat the additional costs and sell their goods at slightly slimmer profit margins. Or, equally likely, they will try to avoid the tariffs by having other companies assemble their products in neighboring countries before sending them to the US. As is, Trump’s country-based tariffs seem more like a geopolitical tool than an economic one. Frankly, they don’t make much sense if the goal is to bring factories home.Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are closer to the mark. By making all steel imports (regardless of national origin) subject to the same tariff, the policy could succeed in making US steel comparatively cheaper for domestic buyers.View image in fullscreenYet even this wouldn’t make US steel bigger or better, or make its production more efficient. Nor would it necessarily raise the wages of steel workers. Pure and simple protectionism will benefit existing US steel manufacturers, but no one much beyond that. Without the government stepping in to develop new manufacturing – encouraging the adoption of the latest techniques to make a superior product, actively building new demand for American steel, or providing social guarantees for steel workers – tariffs alone risk protecting a sick industry without much upside.So what would a labor-forward tariff program look like? It would combine tariffs with big investments in infrastructure to help steer industry, and the country, into better economic health.For steel, such a fix isn’t hard to imagine. The US benefits from being a continental-sized country, with hundreds of thousands of bridges, school buildings, libraries, miles of rail and highway. All of those things are made with steel. And all of them are falling apart. Major new investments in infrastructure upgrades would provide the tariff-protected steel industry the new demand needed to grow, and provide the requisite scale for industrial dynamism.In exchange, steel firms should be required to provide family-sustaining wages and benefits, and promise to stay neutral in union elections. Not only this, but the government should have some say in actually directing the production process. New steel plants should be built in places that need jobs, not isolated tax-free industrial parks, but in the very same areas that were obliterated by deindustrialization. That is, production should be directed, first and foremost, toward public use and social ends.Some might wonder: why bother with such an expensive experiment?Manufacturing is still a huge part of the US economy and it is among the only sectors that consistently provides high wages for a large base of workers. Protecting that industrial foundation is essential not only for those workers, but for the health of other sectors too. When a factory closes, it’s not just the high-wage blue-collar workers who are thrown out of jobs. So are all the middle-income truck drivers who deliver the goods. And all the high-skilled mechanics who fix the machines. Not to mention the servers and cooks who staff now empty local restaurants. The only businesses that grow in the wake of a factory closing are those related to opioids and alcohol.Since Nafta was signed, tens of thousands of factories have closed in the US. Millions of largely union jobs have been lost. This fact alone explains so much of the populist revolt against globalization. And while it’s unlikely that we could ever return to the industrial output of 1946, is it that hard to imagine returning to 1994? If Pearl Jam is still making albums, can’t the US still make steel?Rebuilding our manufacturing capacity will be a big part of building a better country. And tariffs – deployed wisely with big investments – are an indispensable tool for doing so.

    Dustin Guastella is a research associate at the Center for Working Class Politics and the director of operations for Teamsters Local 623 More