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    ‘He loves to divide and conquer’: Canada and Mexico brace for second Trump term

    Stone-faced as he stared into a gaggle of cameras on Tuesday, the leader of Canada’s largest province laid bare how it feels to be America’s northern neighbour and closest ally this week.“It’s like a family member stabbing you right in the heart,” said Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford. A day before, president-elect Donald Trump had pledged hefty tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US’s two largest trading partners. “It’s the biggest threat we’ve ever seen … It’s unfortunate. It’s very, very hurtful.”For both Mexico and Canada, whose economic successes are enmeshed in their multibillion-dollar trade relationships with the United States, the forecasted chaos and disruption of a second Trump term has arrived. And the first salvo from Trump has already forced leaders from Mexico and Canada to revisit their relationship with the US – and with each other.Both have maxims to describe living in the shadow of the world’s largest economic and military superpower, which sees nearly $2tn worth of goods and services pass through its two land borders.“Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant,” the late prime minister Pierre Trudeau told then US president Richard Nixon. “No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt.”For Mexicans, it is the words of the 19th-century dictator Porfirio Díaz: “Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States.”The vagaries of the relationship were tested again this week when Trump threatened in a social media post to apply devastating levies of 25% on all goods and services from both countries, and to keep them in place until “such time as drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop this invasion of our country!”Although in 2018 the US, Canada and Mexico renegotiated the Nafta trade pact that Trump had long blamed for gutting US manufacturing, the three countries still have deeply intertwined supply chains – especially an automotive industry that spans the continent – making a levy of that magnitude potentially devastating to all.In Canada, Trump’s demands have left the government scrambling to make sense of the threat – and how seriously to take it.“‘Good-faith negotiator’ is not usually a descriptor of Donald Trump. He loves to disrupt it. He loves to divide and conquer,” said Colin Robertson, a former senior Canadian diplomat who has had numerous postings in the US. “Trump is determined to truly make his mark. Last time he was disorganized. This time, he’s certainly started off demonstrating a high degree of organization.”Even before Trump’s announcement, the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, and a handful of provincial premiers had mused openly about cutting Mexico out of future trade talks, instead pivoting towards a Canada-US trade pact – a move that Mexico’s lead negotiator called a “betrayal”.On Wednesday, Trudeau held an emergency meeting with all 10 premiers to push a “Team Canada” approach to the confrontation, pledging hours later to invest more in border security – a nod to Trump’s criticism of Canada’s patrolling of its border.A challenge for Canada is a need to approach Trump with skepticism, but also to take the threats seriously, says Robertson, adding that Canada’s trade relationship with the US is immensely lopsided. “The reality is, we need them. They’re big, we’re small.”Still, Trump’s demands “are perverse, but unfortunately predictable”, says Roland Paris, director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa and former foreign affairs adviser to Trudeau.He notes that only a sliver of the fentanyl entering the US comes from Canada, a figure so small the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) does not even mention Canada in a report from 2020. As for migrants entering the US, Canada’s federal minister says yearly interceptions are similar to a “significant weekend” at the Mexico border.“This is [Trump’s] modus operandi,” said Paris. “He’s not wasting any time throwing America’s principal trading partners off balance, before he even enters office.”Ottawa’s efforts to smooth things over with Trump are also hampered by domestic politics. Trudeau remains immensely unpopular in polls, and the rival Conservatives have cast the prime minister as weak and ill-equipped to both preserve what Nixon called Canada’s “special relationship” with the US and to face off against a mercurial president.Paris imagines the prime minister’s cabinet, especially veterans of bruising negotiations with Trump during his first term, as “determined” to manage relations with a country that for decades has remained a staunch ally. He says years of close work has produced a significant overlap in policy goals for the two nations, including skepticism of China and a need to secure critical mineral and energy supply chains.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Canada is going to need resolve, patience and the most far-reaching advocacy campaign this country has ever conducted in the United States,” he said. “But everybody knows that Trump is so unpredictable that there’s no saying what he might do this time.”For Mexico, which has long borne the brunt of Trump’s ire, Monday’s tariff threat comes amid already tense relations, including a reform to elect almost all judges by popular vote that has drawn sharp criticism from the US. At the same time, the arrest in July of two top Sinaloa cartel bosses in Texas, a move that surprised Mexican officials, has triggered a bloody gang war that the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, blames on the US.On Wednesday, Sheinbaum spoke with Trump, a conversation which the US president-elect characterised as “wonderful” after he claimed the Mexican president pledged to “stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border”. Sheinbaum later gently clarified that she wouldn’t close the border, but that the call was “very kind” and had convinced her that no tariffs would happen.Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador to the US, said Trump’s tariff suggestion has kicked off “panic” in the Mexican community living in the US. “How can you hit your partners in a free trade agreement with tariffs 25% higher than what you put on the rest of the world? It’s crazy,” she said.“What was his ceiling is now his floor,” she said of his previous negotiating position on trade. “The lesson? Never yield to a bully.”Alejandro Celorio Alcántara, a Mexican diplomat who oversaw migration when Trump first came to power, says the bombast of the next US president can be easier to work with than more traditional allies.“The Biden administration is a little more diplomatic, but this can actually make the discussion more complicated, because you don’t know what the terms of negotiation are,” he said. “Maybe it’s just my style of negotiation. It’s simpler when it’s more open. They put the cards on the table: ‘This is what we want.’ Then you can respond.”Both Mexico and Canada have scores of diplomats already experienced with Trump, but both sides also expressed concern that many of the key figures in Trump’s first term, who acted as a “check” on the president’s whim-based policy decisions, will be absent from the second administration, replaced by loyalists and idealogues who will do whatever he says.Still, for Mexican officials, there is a glimmer of hope that those in positions of power are more reasonable when they’re not in the media spotlight. Alcántara noted that “border czar” Tom Homan, who recently pledged to carry out a “mass deportation’, is known for his controversial positions, “but if you take the facts to him and explain them, he understands. He has a certain discourse in the media that’s very aggressive, but when you sit down together, you can talk.”For Mexico and Canada, a recognition that their fates remain tied to the US has forced them to redouble their efforts, not to reconsider their relationship.“In the end, we need to bet on a strong North America,” said Alcántara. It’s simple: make North America great again. As a region, not just the United States.” More

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    Why Mexico Is Eliminating Independent Watchdog Agencies

    A vote in the country’s Senate has cleared the way to abolish seven independent organizations that provided oversight on issues such as public information and price fixing.Mexico’s Senate on Thursday night passed a sweeping proposal to dissolve several government-financed yet independent watchdog organizations, a move the president and her supporters said would help reduce corruption and waste. Critics have called it a step backward for transparency and regulation.The duties of most of the seven agencies, which provided oversight on a host of issues, such as public information requests and price fixing in the telecommunications, pharmaceutical and energy sectors, would be absorbed by other parts of the federal government, overseen by the president.Perhaps the most noteworthy of the agencies — the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data, known as INAI — would have its responsibilities divided among a handful of existing federal agencies.“The disappearance of these autonomous bodies represents a democratic setback,” the Mexican Association for the Right to Information, a nongovernmental group, said in a statement. The move, the group added, “weakens the mechanisms of control, transparency and protection of rights that have been built with great effort in our country.”The constitutional amendment dissolving the agencies is part of a series of far-reaching proposals pushed by the former Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, that are supported by his successor and mentee, Claudia Sheinbaum, and by their political party, Morena.In September, Mexico passed an amendment overhauling the country’s judiciary, which supporters of the proposal said was riddled with graft, influence-peddling and nepotism. Critics warned that the move, which will see nearly all Mexican judges elected rather than appointed, undermines judicial independence and politicizes the courts.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    Mexican president claims ‘no potential tariff war’ with US after call with Trump

    Claudia Sheinbaum has said her “very kind” phone conversation with Donald Trump, in which they discussed immigration and fentanyl, means “there will not be a potential tariff war” between the US and Mexico.The president of Mexico spoke to reporters on Thursday following Trump’s threat earlier in the week to apply a 25% tariff against Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff against China, when he takes office in January if the countries did not stop all illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling into the US.Trump, in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, claimed that during the phone call with Sheinbaum she had “agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border”.During her Thursday address Sheinbaum clarified she did not agree to shut down the border.“Each person has their own way of communicating,” Sheinbaum said. “But I can assure you, I guarantee you, that we never – additionally, we would be incapable of doing so – proposed that we would close the border in the north [of Mexico], or in the south of the United States. It has never been our idea and, of course, we are not in agreement with that.”She added that the two did not discuss tariffs, but that the conversation with Trump had reassured her that no tit-for-tat tariff battle would be needed in future.On Monday this week, Trump threatened to impose a 25% percent tariff on Mexico until drugs, including fentanyl, and undocumented immigrants “stop this Invasion of our Country”. He declared that Mexico and Canada should use their power to address drug trafficking and migration and, until they do, “it is time for them to pay a very big price!”The following day, Sheinbaum suggested Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own.On Wednesday, however, the conversation between Sheinbaum and Trump was “very kind”, the Mexican president said. She said she told Trump of the various migration initiatives her government has undertaken, including providing resources and support to central American countries and to migrants arriving in Mexico. Potential immigrants “will not reach the northern border, because Mexico has a strategy”, Sheinbaum said.Trump “recognized this effort” by the Mexican government, Sheinbaum added.She also said Trump expressed interest in the government-driven programs to address fentanyl addiction and overdoses in Mexico. And she raised the problem of American-made weapons entering Mexico from the US to be used by drug cartels.Sheinbaum further added that she encouraged Trump to stop the blockades against Cuba and Venezuela, since “people suffer and it leads to the phenomenon of migration”.Asked by a reporter from Rolling Stone magazine that quoted anonymous Trump-aligned sources discussing a “soft invasion” of Mexico by deploying the US military inside the country against drug trafficking groups, Sheinbaum dismissed the idea, calling it “entirely a movie”.“What I base myself on is the conversation – the two conversations – that I had with President Trump, and then, at the moment, the communication we will have with his work team and when he takes office,” Sheinbaum said. “We will always defend our sovereignty. Mexico is a free, independent, sovereign country – and that is above everything else.” More

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    Trump and Mexican president offer differing accounts of migration talks amid tariff threats

    US president-elect Donald Trump declared a win on stopping illegal immigration through Mexico on Wednesday after talking with Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum. But Sheinbaum suggested Mexico was already doing its part and would not close its borders.The two spoke just days after Trump threatened to impose sweeping new tariffs on Canada and Mexico as part of his effort to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs.Trump said Sheinbaum “agreed to stop migration through Mexico.” Sheinbaum indicated separately on social media that she told Trump that Mexico is already “taking care of” migrant caravans, calling it an “excellent conversation.”“We reiterate that Mexico’s position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples,” Sheinbaum added.While the state of the proposed tariffs remained unclear, Trump said in a post on his Truth Social account that this was “effectively closing our southern border.” He called it a “very productive conversation.”The exchange between the two leaders appeared to confirm for Trump the value of threatening to disrupt trade with import taxes. His initial social media post moved financial markets and gave him a response he was quick to describe as a win. Even if the proposed tariffs fail to materialise, Trump can tell supporters that the mere possibility of them is an effective policy tool and continue to rely on tariff threats.Sheinbaum wrote on social media that the leaders “discussed Mexico’s strategy on migration issues, and I told him the caravans are not reaching the northern [US] border, because Mexico is taking care of them.”“We also talked about reinforcing cooperation on security issues, within the framework of our sovereignty, and the campaign we are carrying out to prevent fentanyl consumption,” she said.Illegal migration across the Mexico border is down in part because the Biden administration secured some stepped-up cooperation from Mexico – the sort Trump seems to be celebrating.Arrivals at the US-Mexico border have dropped 40% from an all-time high in December. US officials mostly credit Mexican vigilance around rail yards and highway checkpoints.Driven by mounting pressure from the US to block migrants going north, in the past few years Mexican authorities have turned to rounding them up across the country and sending them to southern Mexico, in a strategy seen by experts as an attempt to wear migrants out until they give up.Neither side clarified the status of the tariffs. But their implementation could fuel higher prices and slow economic growth, potentially blowing up the trade agreement among the US, Canada and Mexico that was finalized in 2020 during Trump’s previous time in the White House.Trump on Monday said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the country from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders upon taking office on 20 January. He also proposed an additional 10% tariff on China tied to its exporting of materials used in the production of fentanyl.In announcing his plans, he railed against the flow of fentanyl and migrants crossing into the US illegally, even though southern border apprehensions have been hovering near four-year lows.On Wednesday, Trump also posted that he plans a large scale ad campaign to explain “how bad fentanyl is for people to use,” predicting it would educate people on “how really bad the horror of this drug is.”The dangerously powerful opioid was developed to treat intense pain from ailments like cancer but has increasingly been mixed with other drugs in the illicit drug supply.Through September, the United States has imported $378.9bn in goods from Mexico, $322.2bn from China and $309.3bn from Canada. More

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    Mexico’s President and Trump Describe a Positive Talk but Differ on Migration Details

    Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, spoke to President-elect Donald J. Trump on Wednesday afternoon, and both later characterized their discussion as positive while providing different descriptions of what Mexico is doing to stave off a potential tariff war.While Mr. Trump posted on social media that Mexico had agreed to stop migration to the United States through Mexico, “effectively closing our Southern Border,” Ms. Sheinbaum limited her description of the migration-related issues they had discussed to migrant caravans no longer reaching the border with the United States.Still, Ms. Sheinbaum, who earlier in the day had made clear that Mexico would impose retaliatory tariffs in response to similar measures threatened by Mr. Trump, seemed to ease tensions by saying the exchange was “excellent.”“I had an excellent conversation with President Donald Trump,” she wrote on social media. “We addressed Mexico’s strategy regarding the migration phenomenon, and I shared that caravans are no longer reaching the northern border as they are being addressed within Mexico.”That update from Ms. Sheinbaum came after Mr. Trump jolted trade relations with Mexico by saying earlier in the week that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from the country unless Mexican authorities stopped migrants and drugs, such as fentanyl, from coming across the border. The proposed move raised concerns over the potential impact on Mexico’s economy, which relies on trade with the United States.Mr. Trump also posted on social media about the conversation with Ms. Sheinbaum, calling it “wonderful” and “productive.”“She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” Mr. Trump said, though Ms. Sheinbaum referred only to the caravans. “We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs,” he added.Ms. Sheinbaum said earlier on Wednesday, “If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs” — making clear her stance on Mexico’s potential response.Senior officials in her government and leading figures in Mexico’s governing party, Morena, also expressed support for retaliatory tariffs. Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said that about 400,000 jobs could be lost in the United States if Mr. Trump imposed the tariffs, calling the measure a “shot in the foot” while speaking alongside Ms. Sheinbaum at a morning news conference.Mexico’s president did not refer to tariffs, or trade tensions in general, in her post about her conversation with Mr. Trump. Instead, she said she and Mr. Trump had “discussed strengthening collaboration on security issues within the framework of our sovereignty and the campaign we are conducting in Mexico to prevent fentanyl consumption.” More

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    Canada leaders agree to unite against Trump tariff threat amid reports of retaliatory measures

    Canada’s federal government and the premiers of the 10 provinces have agreed to work together against a threat by US president-elect Donald Trump to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports, with one official saying the country was already examining possible retaliatory measures.“We agreed that we need to be smart, strong and united in meeting this challenge,” deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters on Wednesday after a virtual meeting with the premiers called by the prime minister, Justin Trudeau.Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico if the countries do not stop what he called the flow of drugs and migrants across southern and northern borders. He said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the US from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders.Canada is already examining possible retaliatory tariffs on certain items from the United States should president-elect Donald Trump follow through on his threat, the Associated Press reported, citing a senior official.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that her administration is already working up a list of possible retaliatory tariffs “if the situation comes to that”.The Canadian official said Canada was preparing for every eventuality and has started thinking about what items to target with tariffs in retaliation. The official stressed no decision has been made and spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.The pledge to impose tariffs on Canada would drive up fuel prices for Americans as it would upend decades-old oil trade from its top crude supplier, analysts said on Wednesday, with Canadian oil imports not exempt under a free-trade deal from the levies.Even as surging oil output to record highs has made the US the world’s largest producer in recent years, more than a fifth of the oil processed by US refiners is imported from Canada.In the landlocked US midwest, where refineries process 70% of Canadian crude imports, consumers could see pump prices jump by 30 cents per gallon or more, or about 10%, based on current prices, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.Cheaper gasoline was among Trump’s priorities during his re-election campaign as he sought to connect with consumers frustrated by sky-high fuel prices in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war in Gaza and other supply disruptions.When Trump imposed higher tariffs during his first term in office, other countries responded with retaliatory tariffs of their own. Canada, for instance, announced billions of new duties in 2018 against the US in a tit-for-tat response to new taxes on Canadian steel and aluminium.Many of the US products were chosen for their political rather than economic impact. For example, Canada imports $3m worth of yoghurt from the US annually and most comes from one plant in Wisconsin, home state of then-House speaker Paul Ryan. That product was hit with a 10% duty.Another product on the list was whiskey, which comes from Tennessee and Kentucky, the latter of which is the home state of then-Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell.Trump made the tariff threats on Monday while railing against illegal migrants, even though the numbers at Canadian border pale in comparison with the southern border. The US Border Patrol made 56,530 arrests at the Mexican border in the month of October – and 23,721 arrests at the Canadian one between October 2023 and September 2024.Canadian officials say lumping Canada in with Mexico is unfair but say they are happy to work with the Trump administration to lower the numbers arriving from Canada. The Canadians are also worried about an influx north if Trump follows through with his plan for mass deportations.Trump also railed about fentanyl from Mexico and Canada, even though seizures from the Canadian border pale in comparison to the Mexican border. US customs agents seized 43lb (19.5kg) of fentanyl at the Canadian border last fiscal year, compared with 21,100lb (9,570kg) at the Mexican border.Canadian officials argue their country is not the problem and that tariffs will have severe implications for both countries.Canada is the top export destination for 36 US states. Nearly $3.6bn (US$2.7bn) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. About 60% of US crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85% of US electricity imports are from Canada. Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminium and uranium to the US and has 34 critical minerals and metals that the Pentagon is eager for and investing in for national security.“Canada is essential to the United States’ domestic energy supply,” Freeland said.America’s top oil trade groups, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers group and the American Petroleum Institute, said imposing the tariffs would be a mistake – exposing a rare moment of discord between the industry and Trump.“Across-the-board trade policies that could inflate the cost of imports, reduce accessible supplies of oil feedstocks and products, or provoke retaliatory tariffs have potential to impact consumers and undercut our advantage as the world’s leading maker of liquid fuels,” AFPM said on Tuesday.With Associated Press and Reuters More

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    ‘Excelente’: así fue la llamada de Sheinbaum y Trump tras la discusión arancelaria

    La presidenta de México dijo que habló con el presidente electo de EE. UU. sobre temas como migración y seguridad.La presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum, dijo el miércoles por la tarde que tuvo una “excelente conversación” con el presidente electo Donald Trump, aliviando las tensiones pocas horas después de dejar claro que México impondría aranceles de represalia en respuesta a medidas similares anunciadas por Trump.“Tuve una excelente conversación con el presidente Donald Trump”, escribió Sheinbaum en redes sociales. “Abordamos la estrategia mexicana sobre el fenómeno de la migración y compartí que no están llegando caravanas a la frontera norte, porque son atendidas en México”.La actualización de Sheinbaum se produce después de que Trump sacudió las relaciones comerciales con México al decir a principios de esta semana que impondría un arancel de 25 por ciento a todos los productos procedentes del país si las autoridades mexicanas no detenían a los migrantes y las drogas, como el fentanilo, que cruzan la frontera. La medida suscitó preocupación por el posible impacto en la economía de México, que depende del comercio con Estados Unidos.Trump también publicó en las redes sociales sobre la conversación con Sheinbaum, calificándola de “maravillosa” y “productiva.”“Ella ha accedido detener la migración a través de México, y hacia Estados Unidos, cerrando efectivamente nuestra frontera sur”, dijo Trump, aunque Sheinbaum se refirió solo a que las caravanas de migrantes ya no llegan a la frontera con Estados Unidos. “También hablamos de lo que se puede hacer para detener la entrada masiva de drogas a Estados Unidos, y también, el consumo estadounidense de estas drogas”, agregó.Sheinbaum dijo previamente el miércoles: “si llega a haber aranceles, México también subiría aranceles”, dejando clara su postura sobre la posible respuesta de México.Altos funcionarios de su gobierno y figuras destacadas del partido gobernante de México, Morena, también expresaron su apoyo a los aranceles de represalia. El secretario de Economía de México, Marcelo Ebrard, dijo que se podrían perder alrededor de 400.000 empleos en Estados Unidos si Donald Trump impone los aranceles, calificando la medida como un “tiro en el pie”, al participar junto a Sheinbaum en una conferencia de prensa matutina.La presidenta de México no se refirió a los aranceles, ni a las tensiones comerciales en general, en su mensaje sobre su conversación con Trump. En cambio, dijo que ella y Trump también “hablamos de reforzar la colaboración en temas de seguridad en el marco de nuestra soberanía y de la campaña que estamos realizando en el país para prevenir el consumo de fentanilo”. More

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    Trump’s Tariff Threat Pits Canada Against Mexico

    If President-elect Donald J. Trump’s threat of hefty tariffs on Canada and Mexico was intended as a divide-and-conquer strategy, early signs show that it might be working.After his missive on Monday, in which he said he planned to impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from both of the United States’ neighbors, Ottawa and Mexico City followed starkly different approaches.Mexico took a tough stance, threatening to retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. goods. Canada, instead, emphasized that it was much closer aligned to the United States than Mexico.The trade agreement between the three North American nations has been carefully maintained over the past three decades through a delicate balance between the United States and its two key allies.As Mr. Trump prepares to take office, his willingness to tear that up to pressure the two countries on migration could open the door to the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement being replaced by separate bilateral deals with the United States.Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s finance minister, has tried to show that Canada is aligned with Mr. Trump’s hawkish attitude toward China.Blair Gable/ReutersWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More