Midterm Elections (2022)

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      Democrats Have a Whole Lot Riding on Nevada

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      LAS VEGAS — Nevada has long been a bellwether in national elections. The caricature of a casino on every block and a slot machine in every grocery store has given way to the reality of a diverse state with growing minority populations and a widening urban-rural divide that is a microcosm of America.The truth is — and never could it be more resonant than this year — for Democrats, as goes Nevada, so goes the nation. Nevada has a closely fought contest for governor, with the Democratic incumbent, Steve Sisolak, facing Joe Lombardo, sheriff of the most populous county. And its congressional races could help determine partisan control of both chambers: In three of its four House races and in the contest for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbents are in tight battles.For Democrats, Nevada holds promise and peril. It is truly a purple state, and Democrats are hoping to hold together a tenuous multiracial coalition and keep at bay a Republican Party determined to flip the state red.The pressure is particularly acute for Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Across the country, from Georgia to Pennsylvania to Arizona, Senate races are neck and neck, and Nevada is no different; a very slight Democratic advantage has given way to pretty much a dead heat. If this seat gives Senate control to the Republicans, it could change the direction of the country on major public policy issues, including abortion, and most obviously, on confirming judges.Ms. Cortez Masto faces Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who is embraced by both Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell and is the son and grandson of Republican senators. The challenges for Ms. Cortez Masto reflect struggles for Democrats across the country — worries over inflation and the economy, a distinct urban-rural split among the electorate, an opponent who has endorsed Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of a stolen election and, especially for the first Latina elected to the Senate, a need for robust support from Hispanic voters.She has emphasized the achievements of Democrats in Congress — especially the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, and their impact on manufacturing and other jobs. And she has also focused on abortion as part of her outreach to Latino voters, since a majority of Hispanics in the state support abortion rights.Ms. Cortez Masto might as well be running in three states in one: Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, represented about 70 percent of the vote in the 2020 presidential elect (Joe Biden won it by just under nine points); Washoe County, which includes Reno, has just under 20 percent (Mr. Biden won here by 4.5 points); and 15 rural counties, many of which Mr. Trump won with over 70 percent of the vote.She will benefit from an electoral machine built by Harry Reid, the longtime senator who died last year, that Democrats in the rest of the country have looked at with envy. For years, that machine has reliably registered voters and then turned them out. The question this year is if it will be enough to overcome significant economic and electoral headwinds.Adam Jentleson, who worked closely with Mr. Reid, wrote last year that the Nevada Democratic machine “focused on the tough work of building coalitions between organized labor and progressive groups and invested in the nuts and bolts of politics, like voter registration.”In 2016, Mr. Reid’s operation helped Ms. Cortez Masto win by 2.5 points. It is a model for Democratic state operations: It has helped produce Democratic victories in cycles since 2008 (with 2014 an outlier red wave year) for presidential as well as most midterm elections, when the national party often struggles to get its full coalition to the polls.The turnout next month will be a critical test of how that machine operates in the first elections since its founder’s death. Mr. Reid was a unique figure. His ability to raise money for candidates kept the machine humming.Since Mr. Reid’s death, the Nevada model — the Reid machine in coordination with the Democratic Party — has shown some cracks. The Reid machine, now in the hands of Ms. Cortez Masto and Governor Sisolak, and the party have clashed over money and policy direction on everything from support for Israel to primary endorsements. Young activists, keen on pulling the party to the left, have taken up positions in the party itself, alienating Reid operatives.What this likely means for Ms. Cortez Masto and other Democrats in Nevada is that they cannot expect to have the kind of overwhelming fund-raising advantage that they have been used to.That is not the only concern for Democrats. Despite her heritage, Ms. Cortez Masto is fighting to maintain a grip on a majority of Latino voters, who will account for 15 percent to 20 percent of the general electorate.Ms. Cortez Masto had never worn her ethnicity on her sleeve, but she has been emphasizing it in this race. Her campaign has significantly ramped up its Latino voter contact efforts, hiring a Spanish-speaking press secretary, holding events in the community and announcing during Hispanic Heritage Month that 200 Latino leaders had endorsed her.Ms. Cortez Masto’s personal story, as a pioneering Latina legislator, is a ubiquitous element of her pitch. In her ads, she has emphasized her family, including a grandfather from Mexico — Mexican immigrants make up a majority of the Latino population in the state.She will also depend on another turnout machine: the Culinary Workers Union, which is at least half Hispanic and represents tens of thousands of casino employees. The union is expected to knock on over one million doors for this election, about twice as many as it did in 2020.Since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe, Ms. Cortez Masto has been relentlessly using abortion to attack Mr. Laxalt, who supports an abortion ban after 13 weeks of pregnancy. Still, like many Democrats in purple states, she remains vulnerable. In a recent poll, Ms. Cortez Masto led Mr. Laxalt by 19 points among Hispanics, but nearly a third of that demographic was undecided. When she won in 2016, she was estimated to have won over 60 percent of Hispanics, which is well above where she is polling right now.Nevada observers on both sides of the aisle say she is running the best campaign in the state. Her ads are sharp, her social media presence ubiquitous and her campaign disciplined. Ms. Cortez Masto, who has long prided herself on being a workhorse, has shown an indomitability that would have impressed Mr. Reid. She also has adopted her mentor’s fund-raising prowess, having much more cash on hand than Mr. Laxalt.Most years, she would be considered a favorite. But this year, nearly all of the numbers in Nevada tilt toward the Republicans. President Biden’s approval ratings here are just over 40 percent. Unemployment is still high relative to the rest of the country, and inflation continues to take a bite out of paychecks. And a Democratic registration advantage has eroded as nonpartisan registration has expanded.Republicans now see the Nevada Senate race as one of their best shots at gaining control of the Senate, with Ms. Cortez Masto vulnerable. If she prevails, her campaign could provide a blueprint for Democrats elsewhere, especially in the Mountain West and Southwest, on the way to 2024.Nevada, once again, could be the neon beacon for the country.Jon Ralston is the chief executive of The Nevada Independent.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Will the Herschel Walker Allegations Actually Matter?

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      The scandal could be decisive even if one in 50 would-be Walker voters change their minds.Why this Herschel Walker episode could be decisive: It’s largely because of the 50-50 nature of Georgia politics. Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockWill the Herschel Walker Allegations Actually Matter?I don’t think there’s a question I’m asked more often than: “Will this matter” on Election Day?Usually, the question follows the latest gaffe or breaking news that casts a candidate in a bad light. And usually, my answer is, “No, it will not matter” — or at least a version of “no.” The country is deeply polarized, and voters have a short memory.This week, I’ve been getting that question about the Georgia Senate race. As you’ve probably heard, the Republican nominee Herschel Walker reportedly paid a woman to have an abortion. The woman, who shared her story with The Daily Beast, said she was not only an ex-girlfriend, but also the mother of one of Mr. Walker’s children. Mr. Walker has denied the allegation.It’s too soon to look to polling to judge the political fallout. So far, there has been only one survey fielded entirely since the allegations, covering only one day. That poll, an Insider Advantage survey, showed the Democrat Raphael Warnock up by three points, which does happen to be an improvement for Mr. Warnock compared with its prior poll. Mr. Walker led that one by four points. (State polling is infrequent, so it’s hard to say when we’ll get a better sense from the polls about how or whether the allegations have changed voters’ views.)But regardless of what the next surveys say, I think my short answer to the familiar “will this matter” question is “yes” — or at least a version of “yes.”That’s not because this represents the absolute worst case for Mr. Walker. His success is so vital to his party — in its chances to retake the Senate — that his fellow Republicans are unlikely to throw him overboard.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Wisconsin Senate Race: Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, is wobbling in his contest against Senator Ron Johnson, the Republican incumbent, as an onslaught of G.O.P. attack ads takes a toll.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.From the standpoint of the party, this might be more like Donald J. Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape in 2016 than the Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin after his “legitimate rape” comments in 2012. Although denying the allegations of paying for an abortion carries its own risks, it does mean that his party has a way to avoid criticizing him directly. That’s something different from the cases of Mr. Akin or Mr. Trump, who each were captured on tape and so Republicans had to respond to shared facts.One factor that cuts in both directions: The news reinforces a pre-existing narrative about Mr. Walker, who has recently acknowledged he was the father of several children he had not previously mentioned publicly. But for that same reason, he may have already incurred most of the potential reputational damage before this allegation.There’s one other thing that’s odd about this scandal: The voters likeliest to find paying for abortion to be deeply repugnant are also likeliest to be solidly Republican. Many lower-turnout, persuadable or swing voters, in contrast, may be relatively likely to support abortion rights, and may not find this as offensive as another scandal. Hypocrisy is not an unusual accusation for a politician, after all.And yet I’m still inclined to say “yes,” this might really matter. And that’s largely because of the circumstances.First, this was the closest state in the country in 2020: President Biden won Georgia by two-tenths of a point. On paper, this was always likely to be a tight contest — a Democratic incumbent was running in a midterm year in a state slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. Indeed, the polls showed a very close race (with Mr. Warnock ahead) before the allegations.So in this case, even a modest effect — smaller than a point or two — could be important.Second is the possibility of a runoff election. As you may remember from 2020, Georgia holds runoff elections if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote on Election Day. This race has long seemed poised to go to a runoff (there is a Libertarian candidate, and the Libertarian usually receives a couple of points in Georgia).For Mr. Walker, the runoff would carry some risk and reward. The possible upside: It will be further from this week’s allegations. The downside is that there won’t be anyone else to help carry him to victory. The state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, is seemingly likely to defeat Stacey Abrams outright, so a hypothetical Walker-Warnock runoff is likely to be the top of the ticket — the major reason to show up and vote. In the Nov. 8 election by contrast, Mr. Walker may benefit from Kemp supporters and other general election regulars who may reluctantly vote for Mr. Walker, but might not have shown up on his account.If Mr. Walker can’t move past these allegations, would he really be able to get the same Republican turnout he would have otherwise? Wouldn’t Democrats be more motivated to stop him from taking office? Here, the analogy that might be most promising for Democrats is Roy Moore, the Alabama Republican who lost a special election for Senate after numerous women, including several teenagers, accused him of sexual misconduct.I don’t want to start a new Olympic event in “political scandals” for judging Mr. Moore and Mr. Walker. What’s relevant is that Democrats enjoyed a very considerable turnout advantage in that Alabama election, the kind of advantage that can really only happen in a low-turnout special election.The possibility that control of the Senate might be on the line would certainly mitigate the risk of a total collapse in Republican turnout in a runoff. But if the race is as close as the polls and recent electoral history suggest, the scandal might be decisive even if one in 50 would-be Walker voters decide they just don’t need to go out of their way to send him to Washington. More

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      Major Newspaper Company Will Stop Endorsing National and Statewide Candidates

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      Publications owned by the hedge fund Alden Global Capital, the second-largest newspaper publisher in the country, will no longer endorse major political candidates in their opinion pages.In an editorial that is scheduled to run in papers as early as Friday, the company’s publications will tell readers that they will stop endorsing candidates in presidential, Senate and gubernatorial elections.A copy of the editorial was obtained by The New York Times. Alden confirmed its contents and timing.“Unfortunately, as the public discourse has become increasingly acrimonious, common ground has become a no man’s land between the clashing forces of the culture wars,” according to a copy of the planned editorial.“At the same time, with misinformation and disinformation on the rise, readers are often confused, especially online, about the differences between news stories, opinion pieces and editorials.”Alden Global Capital owns about 200 newspapers in the United States, including The Chicago Tribune, The New York Daily News and The Denver Post. Only Gannett, which owns USA Today and other papers, operates more.The editorial is set to run in the newspapers that had traditionally endorsed candidates, not all newspapers in the Alden group, according to a person with knowledge of the plan. Papers can still endorse candidates for local offices.Newspapers in the United States, including The New York Times, have a long tradition of endorsing candidates. But in recent years, some outlets have questioned the practice or decided to forgo it altogether. The Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia said the 2018 cycle would be its last. Ahead of the 2020 presidential election, McClatchy, a large newspaper chain, said its newspapers would not make an endorsement unless they had interviewed both candidates.Three Alden newspapers — The Baltimore Sun, The Chicago Tribune and The Denver Post — will be allowed to continue with their endorsements this season because of how far along in the process they are and because they are viewed as state newspapers of record, the person said. Those newspapers will announce after this election cycle that they will end the practice, according to the person with knowledge of the company’s plan.The editorial said the newspapers would continue to cover political races but would “no longer endorse in presidential races or the increasingly nationalized contests for governor and senate.”“We want to make sure our opinion pages advance a healthy and productive public discourse,” it said. “With that in mind, we will focus our efforts on more local contests, such as city councils, school boards, local initiatives, referendums and other such matters, which readers have told us continue to be of great value in their daily lives.” More

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      Biden’s Choice After OPEC Cuts: Woo Saudi Arabia, or Retaliate?

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      The announcement by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus energy cartel that it would slash oil production was widely seen in Washington as a stab in the back of President Biden.WASHINGTON — President Biden faces a dicey choice following the decision by the world’s oil giants to slash production just weeks before critical midterm elections that could turn on the price of gasoline: Should he stick with his policy of wooing Saudi Arabia or take measures to retaliate?The announcement by the Saudi-led OPEC Plus energy cartel that it would pump two million fewer barrels a day was widely seen in Washington as a stab in the back of Mr. Biden, who just three months ago jettisoned his vow to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and traveled there to court the kingdom’s autocratic crown prince.The question now confronting Mr. Biden is what to do about this seeming betrayal. In intentionally bland comments, he told reporters on Thursday only that he was “disappointed” and considering unspecified “alternatives.” But fellow Democrats, frustrated by what they see as the president’s excessive deference to the Saudis and eager to demonstrate toughness before their constituents head to the polls, increased pressure on Mr. Biden to punish Riyadh.“He should just start withdrawing stuff,” Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey, said in an interview, referring to the American military presence in Saudi Arabia. “That would get their attention. Action for action. Call their bluff. Do they really think they can trade their American security partner for a Russian security partner or a Chinese security partner? They know they can’t do that.”Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, said Saudi Arabia’s decision to ally with President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia to shore up oil prices was a grave mistake.“What Saudi Arabia did to help Putin continue to wage his despicable, vicious war against Ukraine will long be remembered by Americans,” he said. “We are looking at all the legislative tools to best deal with this appalling and deeply cynical action.”Mr. Biden gave little indication of how far he would go.Asked about the production cut on Thursday, Mr. Biden said that “we are looking at alternatives” to oil from OPEC Plus countries. “We haven’t made up our minds yet,” he said.His administration counseled caution, holding out hope that at the end of the day, the cut in daily production would in reality amount to maybe half of the two million barrel goal because some oil producers were already not meeting their targets. Rather than penalizing Saudi Arabia, Biden aides appeared focused more on countering its move by releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and possibly seeking rapprochement with oil-pumping Venezuela.“We are looking at alternatives” to oil from OPEC Plus countries, President Biden said on Thursday, adding, “We haven’t made up our minds yet.”Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe administration also appeared to be considering moves to pressure domestic energy companies to reduce retail prices, possibly including limits on the export of petroleum products. “We’re not announcing any steps on that front, but there are measures that we will continue to assess,” Brian Deese, the president’s national economic adviser, told reporters.The OPEC Plus decision could hardly have come at a worse time politically for Mr. Biden, who had staked his argument for the midterm campaign in part on falling gas prices. Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, has methodically tracked the price at the pump for months as it has declined, and Democrats felt renewed momentum as a result.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.But gas prices had already begun inching back up even before the Saudi-led move, in part because of refinery issues on the West Coast and in the Midwest. The national average rose by seven cents to $3.86 since Monday as demand increased and stocks fell, although it remained far below the peak topping $5 a gallon in June.The Saudis maintain that the production cut was not meant as a shot at Mr. Biden and have sent papers and charts to administration officials justifying it. With the price of oil falling just below $80 a barrel in recent days, the Saudis told American officials that they worried it would slide further into the $70s and possibly the $60s, making their own energy-dependent budget unsustainable..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Biden administration officials fear the real crisis might come in December when a price cap organized by the United States to restrict Russian oil profits goes into effect and a European Union ban on the purchase of Russian crude is set to begin.Mr. Biden’s options to counter the production cut are limited and carry trade-offs. He has already ordered more oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but since the reserve is now at its lowest level in four decades, that risks shortages in case of war or a natural disaster like another hurricane.He could push to limit exports of processed fuels like gasoline and diesel, which would expand supplies and lower prices domestically. But that would harm trading partners, particularly the European allies attempting to wean themselves off Russian energy and amplify global inflationary pressures.The administration could open more federal lands and waters to drilling and soften regulations on drilling, exploration and pipeline laying to increase domestic production, although that could incite a backlash among environmentalists.“They need to loosen regulations, they need to release all those permits sitting on someone’s desk for drilling on federal lands, and they need to allow the Keystone XL pipeline to come down to deliver the Canadian oil sands to American consumers,” said Darlene Wallace, a board member of the Oklahoma Energy Producers Alliance. “And the president needs to encourage investors to invest in the oil business.”Easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could free up more than a million barrels of oil a day, which would help lower prices and potentially replace some of the Russian barrels now sold to Chinese and Indian refineries. But nuclear talks with Iran have stalled with scant hope of a breakthrough, and the prospects of a deal with Venezuela are murky.Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister, at the OPEC Plus meeting on Wednesday. The Saudis have said they are worried about further drops in oil prices making their energy-dependent budget unsustainable.Christian Bruna/EPA, via ShutterstockThe Wall Street Journal has reported that the Biden administration was preparing to scale down sanctions to allow Chevron to resume pumping in exchange for a move toward elections in 2024. But in a statement, the White House emphasized that “there are no plans to change our sanctions policy without constructive steps from the Maduro regime.”In brief comments with reporters on Thursday, Mr. Biden did not deny a possible change toward Venezuela. “There’s a lot of alternatives,” he said. “We haven’t made up our mind yet.” Asked what Venezuela would have to do to persuade the United States to ease sanctions, Mr. Biden said, “A lot.”The president defended his decision to travel in July to Saudi Arabia, where he exchanged a fist bump with its de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite a campaign pledge to isolate the kingdom for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and United States resident killed on what the C.I.A. said were Prince Mohammed’s orders.While not formally announced, American officials said privately at the time that they had an understanding that Saudi Arabia and other energy powers would ramp up production by fall.But Mr. Biden insisted again on Thursday that he had other goals in going to Saudi Arabia, such as encouraging diplomatic relations with Israel.“The trip was not essentially for oil,” the president said. “The trip was about the Middle East and about Israel and rationalization of positions.”“But it is a disappointment,” he added about the production cut, “and it says that there are problems.”Mr. Malinowski and other Democrats said the president should go further than just expressing disappointment. He introduced a bill with Representatives Sean Casten and Susan Wild, Democrats from Illinois and Pennsylvania, requiring the removal of American troops and defensive systems from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The bill was more a statement than anything else since Congress is out of session until the election, but Mr. Malinowski said he patterned it after a similar measure introduced by Republicans in 2020 and used by President Donald J. Trump to pressure Saudi Arabia to decrease production at a time when low oil prices were a concern.Mr. Malinowski said Mr. Biden should similarly use the legislation to push the Saudis. “The point of our bill is to give him the ammunition he needs. I hope he uses it,” Mr. Malinowski said. “He took a risk. He put himself out there for this relationship, and this is not how a friend should respond. So maybe they should find some new friends.”Clifford Krauss More

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      Herschel Walker Sidesteps Abortion Issue at Georgia Campaign Stop

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      WADLEY, Ga. — Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Georgia, drove to a lumber yard on Thursday in this tiny town 150 miles east of Atlanta for his first public event since he was accused of paying for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion. But there was no getting away from the claim that threatens to upend his political aspirations.Asked if he had contacted any of the mothers of his children, one of whom told The Daily Beast he had paid for her abortion, a glasses-clad Mr. Walker told reporters, “No. Why do I need to?”“I know why you’re here,” he told the clutch of reporters, television crews and photographers. “You’re here because the Democrats are desperate to hold onto this seat.”Mr. Walker, a first-time candidate and former football star at the University of Georgia, has been adamantly denying the report, speaking only with conservative media outlets, since it emerged on Monday and prompted charges of hypocrisy. He has supported a ban on abortions with no exceptions for rape, incest or saving the life of the mother.To the news media who met him at Battle Lumber Company, he avoided the issue, calling it a distraction from President Biden’s unpopularity and the president’s alliance with his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock. Mr. Walker did not mention the matter to a small group of mill workers who gathered to hear his stump speech — most of whom were unaware of Mr. Walker’s appearance until shortly before he arrived.In a statement Thursday afternoon, he echoed the “America First” language of his political benefactor, Donald J. Trump, when he vowed, “I am running to put Georgia first.”But hours earlier, abortion was still setting the stage for the day. Mr. Walker told the conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt that he did not know the woman making the claim, although she says they had a child together. In discussing the report that he had paid for an abortion, he seemed to undercut his own anti-abortion views, telling Mr. Hewitt, “Had that happened, I would have said it, because it’s nothing to be ashamed of there.”Understand the Herschel Walker Abortion ReportCard 1 of 5The report. More

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      Some Democrats Embrace the Police as the G.O.P.’s Crime Attacks Bite

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      Violent crime in cities has become a central talking point of Republican campaigns. It’s hurting many Democratic candidates, but not all.In one of the more unusual television advertisements of this year’s midterm election campaigns, Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, accuses Democrats of wanting to defund police departments.“Violent crime is surging in Louisiana,” he says in the ad. “Woke leaders blame the police.”That wasn’t the unusual part. In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and other states, Republicans have painted Democrats as hostile to the police and as cheerleaders for rioting and mayhem. And even though the data on crime is mixed, the tactic seems to be working for the G.O.P. in many races.What was unusual was that Kennedy was bothering to advertise at all in his deep-red state, and the line that came next:“Look,” the Louisiana senator continues, “if you hate cops just because they’re cops, the next time you get in trouble, call a crackhead.”Kennedy’s re-election bid is far from competitive. His Democratic opponent, a community activist from Baton Rouge named Gary Chambers, is polling in the teens. And, in this instance, the Democrat in question really has endorsed the idea of cutting police budgets.“People hate the phrase defund the police,” Chambers wrote on Twitter in December 2020. “Yet we defund education and healthcare almost every year. I live in a parish with 11 different police agencies, in the 2nd most incarcerated place in THE WORLD. It hasn’t solved crime. Move the money. It’s not making us safer.”Chambers made national headlines during the primary for smoking a blunt in an ad that called for the legalization of marijuana. In an interview at the time, Chambers said he decided to show himself smoking pot because it was important to be “very direct about the issues that we’re facing.” If it’s fair for people to make millions of dollars for selling cannabis, he asked, “why are people going to jail for this?”Given Kennedy’s comfortable lead over Chambers in the polls, the “crackhead” line appears meant to drive headlines about Democrats in general, rather than slam his specific opponent. And the ad is just a cruder version of attacks Republicans have leveled against Democrats across the country, regardless of their actual positions. Often — but not always — the candidates being targeted are Black, as Chambers is. But either way, the racial subtext of the criticism is impossible to ignore.Robbing ads of contextIn Florida, for instance, Senator Marco Rubio has portrayed his Democratic opponent, Representative Val Demings, a 65-year-old former police chief of Orlando, as a dangerous “radical” who is soft on crime.Like Chambers, Demings is Black — but, unlike him, she hails from the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. She was one of 207 House Democrats who recently voted for the Invest to Protect Act, a bipartisan bill to increase funding for local police departments.One Rubio ad, titled “Blame America,” takes remarks by Demings out of context to claim that she “praised defunding the police.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.She made the comments on “CBS This Morning” in June 2020, soon after the police killing of George Floyd, giving a measured reaction to a pledge by the Minneapolis City Council to “end policing as we know it,” in the words of one councilwoman, and to rebuild the department with a focus on public health.“The council is being very thoughtful in terms of looking at all of the services that police provide,” Demings said. She went on to elaborate, “The council, along with law enforcement authorities and other community leaders, will sit down and look at everything and come out with a plan that allows them to keep Minneapolis safe, but also bring the community and the police together in a much-needed and long-overdue way.”In the end, the effort to cut the city’s police budget collapsed in acrimony as the political winds shifted.Demings is trying to push back against Rubio’s attacks, though her chances of unseating him appear slim in a state where Republicans have become dominant in recent elections. She has spent almost $8 million airing ads highlighting her experience in law enforcement, according to data provided by AdImpact. Five separate TV ads feature images of Demings in uniform and feature a claim that violent crime fell by 40 percent during her tenure as police chief.In one spot that aired this summer, Demings explicitly says she’d never vote to defund the police.“That’s just crazy,” she says into the camera.Where the crime attacks seem to be workingAs my colleague Reid Epstein wrote today, the Republicans’ crime offensive is hurting Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Wisconsin.“Republicans have seized in particular on Mr. Barnes’s past progressive stances, including his suggestion in a 2020 television interview that funding be diverted from ‘over-bloated budgets in police departments’ to social services — a key element of the movement to defund the police,” Reid wrote. “Since then, Mr. Barnes has disavowed defunding the police and has called for an increase in funding.”At times, the campaign against Barnes, who is Black, has taken on explicit racial elements. “Mail advertising from Republicans has darkened Mr. Barnes’s skin, while some TV ads from a Republican super PAC have superimposed his name next to images of crime scenes,” Reid added.The soft-on-crime ads are also making an appearance in Pennsylvania, where the race has likewise moved in Republicans’ direction since Labor Day. The Democratic nominee for Senate, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is white, faces an onslaught of ads accusing him of being too lenient on incarceration while in office. (Fetterman oversaw a parole board that successfully recommended clemency for about 50 inmates who had been sentenced to life in prison.)Kennedy, coincidentally, recently made an appearance for Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee in Pennsylvania, at a rally in Newtown, a blue-collar suburb of Philadelphia. The so-called collar counties around the state’s largest city are where statewide elections are typically won or lost — among the mainly white, non-college-educated voters who tend to swing between the two parties.And they’re hearing a lot about crime on the nightly news: A Pew Research survey from January found that 70 percent of Philadelphia residents thought crime, drugs and public safety was the most important issue facing the city.At the Newtown rally, Kennedy repeated the “crackhead” line and said, “Fetterman thinks cops are a bigger problem than criminals.” He added, “A free tip, folks: Most cops will leave you alone unless you do illegal stuff.”Fetterman appears to take the criticism personally, no surprise given that his engagement with the criminal justice system is written on his body.When I spoke with the lieutenant governor recently for an article about his health, he grew agitated after I asked him about the G.O.P.’s attacks on his record on crime.Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania, has faced a barrage of Republican ads calling him soft on crime.Jeff Swensen for The New York TimesAs he responded, Fetterman unrolled the sleeve of his hooded sweatshirt, revealing tattoos of the dates of murders in Braddock, the former steel town south of Pittsburgh where he served as mayor for over a decade.“It’s a smear and a lie, and they know that,” he said, adding that he had first been motivated to run for office by Braddock’s chronic problems with gun violence.“I talked about funding the police,” he said.How some Democrats are respondingTattoos aside, Pennsylvania law enforcement is coalescing against Fetterman. Most major police organizations in the state have endorsed Oz.But that hasn’t been every Democrat’s fate this year. Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s attorney general and the Democratic nominee for governor, is depicting himself as the law-and-order alternative to Doug Mastriano, his Republican opponent, who was outside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.Shapiro’s efforts are not going unnoticed. He’s earned endorsements from several policing organizations, including the Philadelphia lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police, which offered a concurrent endorsement of Oz. Its president, John McNesby, used the announcement to denounce Fetterman, whom he accused of having “a long history of anti-police rhetoric and advocacy for polices that make communities less safe.”Shapiro’s ties to the F.O.P., the nation’s largest police organization, worried some in the Democratic primary this year. But what was once a liability is now a strength, and he leads Mastriano by double digits.If that lead holds, credit Shapiro’s deft moves to defuse Republican talking points on crime as one factor. He highlights his F.O.P. endorsement in a number of TV ads, two of which feature retired Philadelphia police officers offering their personal endorsements. In a city where the rate of violent crime is on track to surpass last year’s record high, that’s a potent message.The pro-police ads from Demings and Shapiro aren’t unique, either. In general election races this year, Democrats have spent almost $29 million on 175 individual ads praising the police or promoting police endorsements, according to a New York Times analysis of AdImpact data.What to readTonight, Senator Mark Kelly faces Blake Masters in the only debate of the Arizona Senate race. Jennifer Medina offers this preview.At a campaign stop in Georgia, Herschel Walker, the anti-abortion Republican nominee for Senate, sidestepped a claim that he paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, Maya King and Jonathan Weisman report.Clyde McGrady and Kellen Browning profiled Walker’s son Christian Walker, a social media star who has in recent days loudly criticized his father’s actions.Representative Tom Malinowski’s struggle to win his re-election bid in New Jersey looks like a national bellwether, Tracey Tully writes.A federal judge blocked New York’s new restrictions on the carrying of guns in public, finding much of the law unconstitutional. Jonah Bromwich has more.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      How to Watch Arizona Senate Debate With Kelly and Masters Tonight

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      With Election Day fast approaching, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, a Democrat, will face his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, as well as Marc Victor, the Libertarian candidate, in their first and (likely only) debate.Mr. Masters, a political newcomer who received the enthusiastic backing of the tech mogul Peter Thiel, has struggled to attract independent voters, who make up roughly a third of the state’s registered voters.Much of Mr. Masters’s campaign has focused on anti-immigration messaging. He has shifted his stance on abortion since the primary and has deleted his false claim that President Donald J. Trump won the 2020 election from his website. He is likely to face questions from the moderators and Mr. Kelly on his shifting positions.Mr. Kelly, a former astronaut and the husband of Gabby Giffords, the former congresswoman who was shot in the head in 2011, has run a carefully choreographed campaign. He has relied on his reputation as a moderate incumbent, drawing consistent support from some Republicans. Mr. Kelly also has one of the most well-funded Senate campaigns, raising over $52 million.The debate, hosted by the Arizona Clean Elections Commission, is at 6 p.m. local time (and 9 p.m. Eastern time). It will be aired by C-SPAN and we will be covering it here with live updates and analysis from our reporters. More