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    Las elecciones de Texas que reflejan el debate sobre migración en el Partido Demócrata

    La tensa elección de hoy en el estado refleja la división nacional que hay al interior del partido en torno a las cuestiones fronterizas.LAREDO, Texas — Apenas un mes después de que el presidente Joe Biden llegó a la Casa Blanca con la promesa de revertir las políticas del gobierno de Donald Trump con la intención de implementar una estrategia más compasiva en torno a la migración, Henry Cuellar, representante demócrata por el sur de Texas, comenzó encender las alarmas.Advirtió que la cantidad de migrantes que buscaban entrar al país aumentaría y al poco tiempo dio a conocer fotografías de niños que dormían bajo mantas de aluminio en un abarrotado centro de procesamiento de migrantes en su distrito, ubicado en la frontera de Estados Unidos con México.Ahora Cuellar, de 66 años, es uno de los críticos del gobierno más consistentes en el tema migratorio, ya que ha aparecido en Fox News y en ocasiones coincide con los republicanos, cuando dice que los inmigrantes llegan a raudales a Estados Unidos porque creen que “la frontera está abierta”.Sus críticas se han encontrado con la feroz resistencia de Jessica Cisneros, de 28 años, una abogada migratoria progresista que está tratando de desbancar a Cuellar en una segunda vuelta demócrata este martes.Al igual que otras contiendas de las elecciones primarias demócratas, esta batalla es una guerra subsidiaria por la dirección más amplia de un partido que se encuentra enfrentado por el ala moderada y el ala progresista. Sin embargo, este caso en específico encapsula las fuertes tensiones que la cuestión migratoria genera al interior del partido.En entrevistas con líderes y electores demócratas en el Distrito 28 del Congreso de Texas, que abarca desde Laredo hasta San Antonio, muchos dijeron sentirse sumamente frustrados tanto con los demócratas como con los republicanos que usan la frontera como trasfondo político, pero que no han logrado enmendar las leyes migratorias del país, combatir el narcotráfico ni mejorar las vías legales a la ciudadanía.Y a muchos les preocupa que los demócratas carezcan de un mensaje contundente y coherente para enfrentar a los republicanos, que parecen estar cada vez más decididos a hacer de una “invasión” de migrantes el tema principal de las elecciones intermedias.Cuellar suele estar en el centro del debate. Sus seguidores dicen que solo está tratando de equilibrar a las facciones demócratas opuestas en este tema, mientras que el Partido Republicano abandonó casi del todo el debate centrado en las políticas para enfocarse a los llamados contra la migración. Sin embargo, a Cuellar lo critican también los demócratas, a quienes les preocupa que suene demasiado republicano, ya que le interesa más la aplicación de la ley que ser compasivo.Maxine Rebeles, maestra y activista migratoria, en la sede de campaña de Jessica Cisneros en Laredo, Texas.Kaylee Greenlee para The New York Times“Le está abriendo la puerta a algo que puede ponerse muy muy feo muy muy rápido”, dijo Maxine Rebeles, una maestra de secundaria y activista migratoria de la coalición por los derechos de los migrantes No Border Wall en Laredo.Afuera de una casilla electoral abarrotada en una estación de bomberos de Laredo, donde una ligera brisa daba un respiro en un día abrasador, Cuellar rechazó las críticas de lo que él denominó la extrema izquierda. Afirmó que estaba a favor de las propuestas migratorias para ayudar a los trabajadores y las vías a la ciudadanía para aquellos que fueron traídos sin documentos a Estados Unidos en la infancia.No obstante, Cuellar, cuyo hermano es el alguacil del condado de Webb, afirmó que también estaba atento a las necesidades de los líderes comunitarios y las autoridades migratorias en su distrito, quienes habían dado a conocer su preocupación por la falta de recursos para procesar el mayor número de migrantes que llegaban al país.“Me manifiesto en contra de los republicanos que quieren una valla o un muro, manifiesto mi desacuerdo cuando dicen que es una invasión; no es una invasión”, dijo Cuellar mientras charlaba con sus simpatizantes. Sin embargo, agregó: “Estoy entre la espada y la pared, ya que no estoy a favor de ningún bando”.Cuellar, quien está librando la batalla política de su carrera, está siendo investigado por el FBI, aunque los funcionarios no han dado a conocer los detalles.Cuando se le preguntó sobre si los demócratas carecían de un mensaje migratorio cohesivo, estuvo de acuerdo. Dijo que lo que más le preocupaba era que los republicanos estaban llenando ese vacío con el mensaje de que los demócratas no actuaban con mano dura contra la delincuencia.Cuando se le hizo la misma pregunta, Cisneros criticó a los miembros del Congreso que no están en sintonía con el gobierno de Biden, incluyendo a Cuellar, de quien dijo que recurría al tipo de argumentos de derecha que habían motivado los tiroteos masivos de supremacistas blancos en Búfalo, Nueva York, y El Paso, Texas.El representante Henry Cuellar agradeció a un voluntario de la campaña afuera de un lugar de votación temprana en Laredo, Texas.Kaylee Greenlee para The New York Times“Henry Cuellar está recurriendo a estas líneas de ataques xenófobos que solo nos hacen el objeto de ataques”, dijo Cisneros, quien aseguró que su contrincante era “el demócrata favorito de Trump”. La candidata añadió que aportaría su propia experiencia profesional como abogada migratoria para configurar la política fronteriza.Durante años, los demócratas conservadores que representan a las comunidades fronterizas, incluido Cuéllar, han tratado de lograr un equilibrio: defender los beneficios de la inmigración para el comercio, los negocios y el tejido social de sus comunidades de mayoría latina, mientras hablaban con dureza sobre la necesidad de aumentar los fondos para la vigilancia y la aplicación de la ley a lo largo de la frontera sur.Pero ese equilibrio se ha desvanecido. Los intentos de aprobar leyes migratorias bipartidistas han fracasado durante décadas y el lenguaje y las políticas de mano dura contra la inmigración se han convertido en planteamientos centrales de los republicanos desde el ascenso del expresidente Trump.En este ciclo de mitad de mandato, los republicanos han invertido casi 70 millones de dólares en 325 anuncios únicos sobre seguridad fronteriza e inmigración, muchos de los cuales describen condiciones distópicas en la frontera sur del país y varios utilizan el término “invasión”, según la empresa de seguimiento de anuncios AdImpact.Los demócratas, por el contrario, solo han gastado ocho millones de dólares en 46 anuncios sobre inmigración, y uno de ellos de Cuellar atacaba a Cisneros por sus políticas de inmigración progresistas que, según él, reducirían los puestos de trabajo de los agentes fronterizos y conducirían a “fronteras abiertas”.Jessica Cisneros, la contrincante de Cuellar, dijo que aportaría su experiencia como abogada especializada en inmigración a la hora de diseñar la política fronteriza.Kaylee Greenlee para The New York TimesAl principio, los demócratas parecían inclinarse a la izquierda en respuesta a la dura postura del gobierno Trump en materia de inmigración. Durante las primarias presidenciales de 2020, la mayoría de los candidatos respaldaron una política de despenalización de los cruces fronterizos. Pero desde entonces, algunos en el partido y en las organizaciones proinmigrantes han criticado lo que ven como un retroceso en el tema mientras los republicanos redoblan la apuesta.Marisa Franco, que formó parte del comité de inmigración de un grupo de trabajo de unidad demócrata formado por el presidente Biden y el senador por Vermont Bernie Sanders, califica la postura del partido sobre la inmigración de “capitulación”.“Los republicanos están proponiendo soluciones, y en lugar de contrarrestar sus horribles soluciones, los demócratas no hablan de ello o legitiman por defecto el punto de vista de que la inmigración y los inmigrantes son malos”, dijo Franco, directora ejecutiva de Mijente, un grupo progresista de defensa de los latinos. “Ante cosas realmente desagradables, se escabullen y huyen”.Un ejemplo particularmente evidente de las divisiones demócratas es el Título 42, la política de la era de la pandemia promulgada por el gobierno Trump que rechaza rápidamente a casi todos los migrantes que buscan asilo en la frontera.El gobierno de Biden había mantenido esta política durante más de un año, pero trató de suspenderla a principios de este año, cuando se suavizaron otras restricciones por la pandemia. Esa decisión desencadenó una oleada de demandas y un desfile de demócratas que intentaban distanciarse del presidente. El viernes pasado, un juez federal mantuvo la política.Las críticas al intento del gobierno Biden de suspender el Título 42 han venido de miembros demócratas del Congreso que se enfrentan a duras luchas por la reelección en todo el país, entre ellos Cuellar y los senadores Catherine Cortez Masto por Nevada, Raphael Warnock por Georgia y Maggie Hassan por Nuevo Hampshire.Y los senadores Kyrsten Sinema y Mark Kelly, por Arizona, ambos demócratas, han criticado repetidamente el plan del gobierno de Biden para levantar la política y presentaron el mes pasado un proyecto de ley para impedirla sin un plan detallado para detener el esperado aumento de migrantes en la frontera.La inacción podría resultar costosa este año electoral: algunas organizaciones que ayudaron a ganar estados decisivos para los demócratas en 2018 y 2020 no tienen planes de tocar puertas o llamar a los votantes esta temporada de mitad de periodo, porque están enojados con la postura del partido sobre la inmigración.Entre ellos está Lucha, un grupo de defensa en Arizona ampliamente acreditado por ayudar a asegurar las victorias de Sinema y Kelly, los primeros senadores demócratas que representan al estado en décadas.“Para ese increíble esfuerzo y esa increíble participación, hemos obtenido resultados muy mínimos”, dijo Tomas Robles, su codirector ejecutivo. “Los demócratas están cayendo en la misma trampa: hay una falta de voluntad política y de coraje”.En Laredo, una ciudad de unos 261.000 habitantes en la que las tiendas y los parques del centro parecen casi fundirse con la frontera, la lucha migratoria del país es personal. Los miembros de la coalición apartidista No Border Wall no reparan en señalar que han rechazado con éxito cuatro intentos por parte de gobiernos demócratas y republicanos de construir un muro en la región.Pero los demócratas de Laredo, unidos en su batalla contra el muro, están divididos en su apoyo a Cuéllar y Cisneros y cómo debe abordarse la migración. Cuellar sigue el camino emprendido por el gobierno de Obama, que se basó en una agresiva estrategia de aplicación de la ley en la frontera con el fin de atraer el apoyo de los republicanos a una vía de acceso a la ciudadanía para millones de migrantes que viven en el país sin residencia legal.Sus partidarios tienden a suscribir la misma filosofía, o al menos a aceptarla. “Es mucho más conservador de lo que yo preferiría”, dijo Melissa R. Cigarroa, presidenta de la junta directiva del Centro de Estudios Internacionales de Río Grande. “Pero no deja de trabajar por la comunidad”.Pero los partidarios de Cisneros argumentan que el énfasis en la seguridad fronteriza no ha ayudado a crear vías legales hacia la ciudadanía. También, argumentan, hace poco para contrarrestar un enfoque de “nosotros contra ellos” impulsado por los republicanos que ha puesto a los solicitantes de asilo y a los migrantes en peligro. “Cisneros viene de ese lado, de ayudar a las familias”, dijo Juan Livas, activista de inmigración y cofundador de la Alianza de Inmigrantes de Laredo.Agentes de Aduanas y Protección Fronteriza y miembros de la Guardia Nacional de Texas están estacionados de forma intermitente a lo largo del río Grande, que fluye entre Estados Unidos y México, en Laredo, TexasKaylee Greenlee para The New York TimesLos cismas reflejan la división nacional entre los demócratas, mientras que los republicanos se han mantenido en gran medida unidos a favor de políticas duras destinadas a limitar la inmigración.“Es muy decepcionante, desmoralizante e incluso exasperante”, dijo el representante demócrata de Illinois, Jesús García, quien ha promovido proyectos de ley de reforma migratoria. “Dijimos que si ganábamos la mayoría en ambas cámaras se produciría la reforma migratoria”.Eso no ha sucedido, dijo, y el partido, en cambio, ha asumido una postura defensiva. “Es un cálculo político, y creo que es un error”, dijo.Azi Paybarah More

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    When Will We Get Election Results in Georgia?

    While there are multiple close races across the country on Tuesday, it is not expected that any will result in the kind of protracted tabulation seen in Pennsylvania, where votes in the Republican Senate primary are still being counted. But the night could still run late in some states.In Georgia, primaries for governor and Senate appear unlikely to be close. Harder to forecast is the Republican primary for secretary of state, where Representative Jody Hice is challenging the incumbent, Brad Raffensperger.Similarly close races are possible in Alabama, where Representative Mo Brooks is facing challengers in the Republican Senate primary, and in Texas, where multiple runoff elections will be decided.But none of those states have a law like the one in Pennsylvania that prevents local election officials from processing absentee ballots before Election Day. In addition, voting by mail is not as popular in states voting on Tuesday as it proved to be in the Pennsylvania primary.Early in-person voting has surged in Georgia — accounting for more than 850,000 votes over three weeks. That should help election officials tabulate full results relatively early on election night.But keep in mind that extremely close races can lead to prolonged counting that may extend into the morning, delaying a final call. More

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    3 Questions About Tuesday’s Big Elections

    Will Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” candidates accept defeat? Can Democrats find reasons for hope? And for other Republicans, what’s the price of Trump’s cold shoulder?Tuesday’s primaries will give us fresh data on the electoral power of Donald Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 presidential election, while offering clues as to how energized Democrats are for November.In Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia, we’ll get more tests of Trump’s endorsement sway, with two Senate seats and three governor’s mansions up for grabs in November. As our colleague Azi Paybarah notes, Trump has taken some “noteworthy losses” thus far this year.In Texas, which is holding runoff elections today, we’ll learn if Democrats in Laredo want to re-elect their anti-abortion congressman for a 10th term, or if they are looking for progressive change in the Rio Grande Valley. And we’ll find out if the state’s scandal-ridden attorney general can defeat the scion of a fading political dynasty.Polls will close tonight in Georgia at 7 p.m. Eastern time, Alabama at 8 p.m., Arkansas at 8:30 p.m. and Texas between 8 and 9 p.m. There’s also a special U.S. House election in Minnesota to replace the late Representative Jim Hagedorn. You can find live results here and our live election night analysis here.Our colleague Maya King sent you her questions about today’s contests this afternoon. Here are a few more to ponder as the results start trickling in:Perdue has trailed badly behind Gov. Brian Kemp in polls.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesIf Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ candidates lose, will they accept defeat?In Pennsylvania, lawyers for the top two finishers in the Republican primary for Senate are still duking it out over whether certain ballots should be counted or not — a fight that the former president and two national party committees are already wading into. The candidates, Mehmet Oz and David McCormick, are separated by about 1,000 votes, and a recount appears almost certain.We don’t know if any of Georgia’s big contests will be that close. Although Gov. Brian Kemp is comfortably ahead of David Perdue in the Republican primary for governor, there has been scant polling on the secretary of state’s race. The Trump-backed candidate, Representative Jody Hice, faces Brad Raffensperger, the incumbent secretary who provoked Trump’s wrath in 2020 by refusing his demand that he “find 11,780 votes” and declare him the winner.Perdue, an avid proponent of Trump’s baseless election claims, told reporters this week that he would have to see if there was “fraud” before committing to accept Tuesday’s results. The Hice-Raffensperger grudge match could be tight enough for a runoff, and it’s anybody’s guess what Trump will say or do in that scenario.There’s also a controversy brewing in the attorney general’s race over John Gordon, a lawyer who is challenging Chris Carr, the Republican incumbent. Like Hice and Perdue, Gordon has insisted that Trump won Georgia in 2020, and called that year’s election a “coup d’état.”But Gordon faces questions about his eligibility for office, fueled by the Carr campaign, which has challenged whether Gordon has been an active member of the State Bar of Georgia for the required seven years. If Gordon wins the primary, expect litigation.Stacey Abrams is preparing for a rematch against Kemp, who narrowly beat her in 2018.Audra Melton for The New York TimesCan Democrats find hope in today’s outcomes?The mood on the left is grim, with reports that some Democrats are searching for a replacement for President Biden atop the ticket in 2024. Inflation is at a 40-year high, with the average price of gasoline creeping toward $5 a gallon. To the alarm of party leaders, youth turnout — typically a Democratic strength — has been low in recent elections.All that aside, Democratic donors are still pouring money into party committees and candidates at a fast clip — and the marquee campaigns in Georgia should be well financed, at least.Senator Raphael Warnock raised more than $13.5 million in the first three months of 2022, and has at least $23 million in the bank now. Those sums put him well ahead of Herschel Walker, the likely Republican nominee.Donors gave Stacey Abrams, who is running for governor for the second time, about $11.7 million in the first quarter. Abrams ran unopposed in the primary, but her campaign has been spending most of that money as it comes in; she entered January with $7.2 million in cash on hand and exited March with just $8 million.She’ll need far more than that if she is to knock off Kemp in November, assuming he defeats Perdue. More than $100 million was spent on the 2018 governor’s race, which Kemp won narrowly. Democratic super PACs have already spent at least $2 million to attack Kemp this campaign, and the Georgia arm of the Democratic Governors Association has donated $1 million to One Georgia, a leadership PAC set up to help Abrams’s campaign.“Stacey will absolutely have the resources to compete” in the fall, Representative Nikema Williams, the chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Georgia, said in an interview. “But it takes money to organize voters. This isn’t about waiting until after Labor Day.”For now, Abrams is getting some rhetorical help from the former president, who has said it would be “OK with me” if she ousted Kemp. Trump has attacked the governor relentlessly, including in a statement on Tuesday that called Kemp “very weak.” The former president added: “Most importantly, he can’t win because the MAGA base — which is enormous — will never vote for him.”Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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    These Trump-Endorsed Candidates Are on the Ballot Today

    Candidates endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump have had mixed success so far in contested Republican primaries for the 2022 midterm elections.Most of Mr. Trump’s endorsed candidates are running unopposed or face little-known, poorly funded opponents. But many Republican candidates this year, whether endorsed by Mr. Trump or not, have embraced his style of politics, including false claims about the integrity of the 2020 elections.Here is a look at Mr. Trump’s endorsements in closely watched races today in Georgia, Arkansas and Texas.GeorgiaA campaign rally for former Senator David Perdue at the Wild Wing Café in Dunwoody, Ga., where he appeared on the John Fredericks Show, on Monday.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesDavid Perdue, the Trump-backed former senator, has trailed in public opinion polls and fund-raising in his effort to unseat Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican who angered the former president by refusing to help overturn the results of Mr. Trump’s 2020 loss in the state. Mr. Perdue has made lies about the 2020 election results a focal point of his campaign. Mr. Kemp has stood by the results, while supporting new restrictions on voting.Mr. Trump is also supporting Representative Jody Hice in his bid to unseat Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican who also refused Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the state’s 2020 election results. Mr. Hice, a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, has made Mr. Trump’s baseless claims about the 2020 elections the center of his own campaign.Herschel Walker, the former professional football player whom Mr. Trump endorsed, has led a crowded field in the Republican primary for Senate, looking to challenge Senator Raphael Warnock, a well-funded Democrat, for the seat Mr. Warnock won in a high-profile special election in early 2021. Mr. Walker has been accused of domestic abuse and embraced skepticism about the 2020 election, but his celebrity and the Trump’s backing have buoyed him in public polling and fund-raising.In the crowded race for an open congressional seat just north of Atlanta, Mr. Trump endorsed Jake Evans, the son of Randy Evans, Mr. Trump’s former ambassador to Luxembourg. Mr. Evans has been attacked by his rivals for past remarks criticizing Mr. Trump. He has raised less money than Rich McCormick, a former Marine and a physician who narrowly lost a House race in 2020. Dr. McCormick has echoed Mr. Trump’s false claims about the 2020 elections and has refused to concede his own 2020 loss.ArkansasArkansas Republican gubernatorial candidate Sarah Huckabee Sanders, second from right, with her husband Bryan Sanders, right, greeting supporters in Harrison, Ark., on May 20.Terra Fondriest for The New York TimesMr. Trump endorsed two candidates who are heavily favored to win their primaries today. Sarah Sanders, Mr. Trump’s former press secretary and daughter of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, is facing Doc Washburn, a conservative talk radio host who was fired after not complying with the radio station’s vaccine mandate.In the race for attorney general, Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin, whom Mr. Trump endorsed, has raised and spent far more money than his rival, Leon Jones Jr., the state’s former labor secretary.TexasTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, in July 2021.Cooper Neill for The New York TimesAttorney General Ken Paxton has some problems. He has been indicted on criminal securities-fraud charges that are still pending. Several of his top aides claimed he abused his office by helping a wealthy donor. And he has faced abuse-of-power and bribery accusations. But he also has Mr. Trump’s endorsement and that could prove powerful enough to survive a re-election challenge from George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner and nephew of former President George W. Bush who has clashed with Mr. Trump. More

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    Where Trump’s Endorsement Record Stands in Primaries So Far

    Most of the candidates former President Donald J. Trump endorsed in contested Republican primaries have won in this early phase of the 2022 midterms. Many of those he backed were running unopposed or faced little-known, poorly funded opponents. There have been some noteworthy losses, however.Here is a look at Mr. Trump’s endorsement record in some of the most closely watched races.Doug Mastriano, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump just a few days ahead of the May 17 primary, won the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesA victory in Pennsylvania, and one key race was too close to callDoug Mastriano, a state senator and retired Army colonel who has propagated myriad false claims about the 2020 election and attended the protest leading up to the Capitol riot, won the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor. Mr. Trump endorsed him just a few days ahead of the May 17 primary. In the state’s critical Republican Senate primary, it is not yet known how Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Dr. Mehmet Oz will play out. The race between Dr. Oz and Dave McCormick was extremely tight and an official recount is likely. Kathy Barnette, who had a late surge in the race, was in a strong third place.Representative Ted Budd won the Republican nomination for Senate in North Carolina.Allison Lee Isley/The Winston-Salem Journal, via Associated PressTwo wins and a loss in North Carolina Representative Ted Budd, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump and the influential anti-tax group Club for Growth, won the Republican nomination for Senate, and Bo Hines, a 26-year-old political novice who enthralled Mr. Trump, was catapulted to victory in his Republican primary for a House seat outside Raleigh. But Representative Madison Cawthorn crumbled under the weight of repeated scandals and blunders. He was ousted in his May 17 primary, a stinging rejection of a Trump-endorsed candidate. Voters chose Chuck Edwards, a state senator, in the crowded primary.J.D. Vance won his competitive Republican primary for an Ohio Senate seat with the help of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesVictories in OhioThe Senate candidate J.D. Vance won his hard-fought primary over a field of well-funded candidates, nearly all of whom pitched themselves as Trump-like Republicans. Mr. Vance, an author and venture capitalist, had transformed himself from a self-described “never Trump guy” in 2016 to an “America First” candidate in 2022. His long-shot campaign financially benefited from heavy spending by his former boss Peter Thiel, a billionaire founder of PayPal.Max Miller, a former Trump aide who denied assault allegations from an ex-girlfriend and was later endorsed by Mr. Trump, won his House primary after two other Republican incumbents there opted not to run. Representative Anthony Gonzalez, who had voted to impeach Mr. Trump, retired after just two terms. Representative Bob Gibbs, a Trump supporter, dropped out after his district was redrawn late in the campaign, pitting him against Mr. Miller.Mr. Trump also endorsed Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a lawyer and former beauty queen who had been a surrogate for his presidential campaign. She won a seven-way primary for an open congressional seat being vacated by Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat running for Senate.Representative Alex Mooney of West Virginia, right, with Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the House minority leader. Mr. Mooney prevailed in his primary over Representative David McKinley.Stefani Reynolds for The New York TimesA win in West VirginiaIn an incumbent-on-incumbent House primary, Representative Alex Mooney prevailed over Representative David McKinley in a newly drawn congressional district that largely overlaps with the one Mr. McKinley represented for more than a decade.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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    Georgia, a New Battleground State, Is Once Again the Center of Attention

    It’s the crucible of American politics.Georgia’s got everything: disputed elections, rapid demographic change, celebrity Democrats, a restrictive new voting law, an open criminal investigation into Donald Trump’s meddling in the 2020 election, a deep rural-urban divide and unending drama between the Trump wing of the Republican Party and the local G.O.P. establishment.It’s a longtime Republican stronghold that has become a battleground state. Trump won Georgia by more than 200,000 votes in 2016, then lost it by fewer than 12,000 votes four years later. Georgia was where President Biden made his doomed final push to pass voting rights legislation in the Senate. It was where Democrats picked up two crucial Senate seats on Jan. 5, 2021, giving them the barest control of both chambers of Congress.But those gains are fragile, and Republicans are confident they can win the governor’s race and regain one of the Senate seats. It’s largely for the usual reasons: high prices for the two Gs — gas and groceries — as well as Biden’s low job approval ratings. Either way, millions of campaign dollars will flow into Georgia between now and November.Before all that, though, we’ll have to get through Tuesday’s primaries. Here is what else is going on:Trump vs. PenceOn Monday, Trump and Mike Pence, his former vice president, held dueling events for their respective candidates in the Republican primary for governor: David Perdue, a former senator and Dollar General executive who entered the race at Trump’s insistence, and Brian Kemp, the incumbent.Pence attended a rally for Kemp at the Cobb County airport in suburban Atlanta, while Trump appeared remotely for Perdue, who took a racist swipe at Stacey Abrams, the presumptive Democratic nominee, during a news conference at a wings-and-beer restaurant north of the city. As Jonathan Martin writes, Pence and Trump are circling each other warily in advance of a possible clash in the presidential primary in 2024, so their standoff in Georgia has national implications.It’s not looking good for Trump’s leading candidate in the state, for the reasons our colleagues Reid Epstein and Shane Goldmacher reported this weekend. Polls show Kemp ahead by an average of 25 percentage points, leading Perdue to try to reset expectations last week. “We may not win Tuesday,” he said, “but I guaran-damn-tee you we are not down 30 points.”Along with Representative Jody Hice, who is hoping to unseat Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Perdue is running a campaign that is almost single-mindedly focused on Trump’s baseless claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.Understand the Georgia Primary ElectionThe May 24 primary will feature several Trump-backed candidates in closely watched races.A New Battleground: Republicans have fought bitter primaries in Georgia. But just two years after Democrats flipped the state, it’s trending back to the G.O.P.G.O.P. Governor’s Race: David Perdue’s impending loss to Brian Kemp looms as the biggest electoral setback for Donald Trump since his own 2020 defeat.Trump vs. Pence: With the ex-president backing Mr. Perdue and his former vice president supporting Mr. Kemp, the G.O.P. governor’s race has national implications for 2024.Fighting Headwinds: Democrats in Georgia — and beyond  — are worried that even the strongest candidates can’t outrun President Biden’s low approval ratings.Perdue and Hice are speaking to a “small and shrinking crowd in Georgia,” said Chris Clark, the president and chief executive of the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, which is backing Kemp and Raffensperger.“Nobody asks about it at events,” Clark added, referring to the 2020 election. “They’re asking about jobs and inflation.”Alexis Hill, a canvasser with the New Georgia Project, went door to door in Fairburn, Ga., to encourage people to register to vote.Alyssa Pointer/ReutersDemocrats look ahead to a difficult autumnThe Rev. Raphael Warnock, the preacher turned senator, and Stacey Abrams, the former state lawmaker and voting rights champion, ran unopposed in their primaries for Senate and governor this year. That doesn’t mean they’ll have an easy time of it in the fall, with a base that leading Democrats are describing openly as “quite demoralized.”Abrams is one of those Democrats, like Beto O’Rourke in Texas or Amy McGrath in Kentucky, whose national stardom and appeal among activists sometimes outstrip their local support. Polls show her behind Kemp by about five points in head-to-head matchups.“When you lift someone up that high, people love to see you fall,” said Martha Zoller, a former aide to Perdue who now hosts a talk radio show in Gainesville, Ga.Abrams’s campaign released a memo on Sunday outlining what it described as her strengths heading into November. It makes three basic points:Democratic turnout is holding up. The Abrams team says that “Democrats are on track to break records” in Tuesday’s primary, a fact that has Republicans arguing that Georgia’s new voting law has not suppressed voting.As Nick Corasaniti and Maya King reported on Monday morning, however, “It is too soon to draw any sweeping conclusions, because the true impact of the voting law cannot be drawn from topline early voting data alone.” We’ll know more after tomorrow.So-called crossover voters will go for Democrats in November. Abrams aides say they have identified “nearly 35,000 voters who we expect to vote for the Democratic ticket in November but who cast Republican ballots for the primary,” a group they are calling “crossover voters.” Of the 855,000 Georgia voters who had cast their ballots as of Friday, when early voting closed, the Abrams campaign estimates that more than half — 52.9 percent — were Republicans, while only 46.5 percent were Democrats. (Georgia does not register voters by political party.)The Abrams team spins this as “a remarkably close margin,” given all the attention the news media has paid to Georgia’s big G.O.P. primaries, which are more competitive than the major Democratic ones. But it also could be an ominous sign for Democrats that Republican voters are more energized heading into the fall.Georgia is growing more diverse, and that will help Democrats. The speed of voter registration has slowed in Georgia, which was once a model for the ability of grass-roots organizing to overcome entrenched obstacles to voting. That slowdown could hurt Democrats in the fall, although the Abrams campaign says it has identified about 42,000 Georgians who have already voted in this year’s primary but did not vote in the 2018 general election. Her team also says it has found more than 100,000 Black voters who skipped the 2018 primary but have already voted this year, as well as 40,000 additional white voters and an unspecified number of new Asian American and Latino voters. Abrams lost her first race for governor against Kemp by just under 55,000 votes, so those new voters could be significant.It’s not a safe assumption that voters of color will choose Democrats at the same rates they have in the past, however. Biden has lost support among Black and Latino Americans since taking office. As of April, the president’s approval rating was just 67 percent among Black adults, down 20 percentage points since the start of his term. Not only is turnout a question mark, but it’s also by no means clear that Democrats will be able to hang on to all of those voters if inflation continues to bite into their pocketbooks in November.What to readPresident Biden pledged to defend Taiwan against attack, moving a step beyond longstanding U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Peter Baker report from Tokyo and Seoul.Representative Mo Brooks, a hard-right Republican candidate for Senate in Alabama, seems to be making an unlikely comeback after his low poll numbers prompted Donald Trump to take back his endorsement, Trip Gabriel reports.In Texas, the closely watched House race between Representative Henry Cuellar and his progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros, encapsulates the tensions within the Democratic Party on immigration, Jazmine Ulloa and Jennifer Medina report.how they run George P. Bush talking to members of Texas Strong Republican Women before an event for the attorney general’s race.Shelby Tauber for The New York TimesPaxton’s legal troubles haven’t amounted to political onesKen Paxton, the Texas attorney general, has faced his share of legal concerns in recent years, something that George P. Bush, his rival in the primary this year and the state’s land commissioner, has seized upon as he seeks to oust him from office.But, if history is any indicator, Bush has his work cut out for him.In March, Paxton topped the primary field with 43 percent of the votes, short of the 50 percent required to win the nomination outright. Bush placed second with 23 percent, and their runoff election is on Tuesday.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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    Early Voting Surges as Georgia Watches for Impact of Election Law

    ATLANTA — Early voting turnout in Georgia’s primary elections surged past previous milestones, signaling an energized electorate in a newly minted political battleground that remains ground zero in the national fight over voting rights, and setting off a fresh debate over a major voting law that had largely been untested before this year.Republicans quickly pointed to the early totals — more than 857,000 ballots were cast in an early voting period that ended Friday, roughly three times as many as in the same period in the 2018 primary elections — to argue that the law, passed last year by the G.O.P.-led legislature, was not suppressing votes.Democrats and voting rights groups said that the numbers were evidence that their redoubled efforts to overcome the law’s effects by guiding voters through new rules and restrictions were paying off so far, and that any focus on total turnout ignored whether voting had been made harder or had placed new burdens on marginalized groups.It is too soon to draw any sweeping conclusions, because the true impact of the voting law cannot be drawn from topline early voting data alone. The picture will grow slightly clearer on Tuesday, when Election Day turnout can be observed; clearer still in the days afterward, when final absentee ballot rejection rates and precinct-level data will emerge; and will fully come into focus after the November general election, when turnout will be far higher and put more strain on the system.The early aggregate statewide turnout figures could obscure the effects of the new law on specific groups, like Black voters, that advocates contend were targeted by it.Ultimately, election experts cautioned, it remains unclear if the law made voting harder, if Democrats have been energized by the legislation or if some combination of the two is unfolding.“Just because turnout is up doesn’t mean that voters face no hurdles,” said Richard L. Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine. “It could well mean that voters overcame those hurdles, and that means that time and money were put into efforts to assure that voters could overcome those hurdles. And that seems unjustified if those hurdles serve no important anti-fraud or other purpose.”The top election official in the state, Brad Raffensperger, a Republican running for re-election, underlined his confidence in the state’s elections under the new law, adding that he was sure county elections administrators would be adequately prepared for what will most likely be a steep increase in voter participation on Election Day.“It’s been tested and it’s coming through with straight A’s,” he said in a recent interview. “We’re having record turnout. We have record registrations, and lines have been short. Everything’s really been running very smooth.”Brad Raffensperger, a Republican and Georgia’s secretary of state, is running for re-election.Audra Melton for The New York TimesGeorgia was one of the first states to pass a new voting law after the 2020 election, when former President Donald J. Trump targeted the state with a flurry of falsehoods about its results.Republicans in the legislature passed the voting law to address what they argued were widespread problems with election oversight and expanded ballot access that could create openings for voter fraud. (Multiple recounts and audits after the election found no evidence of meaningful fraud or other wrongdoing.) Other states soon followed: At least 19 passed 34 laws last year that included new restrictions on voting or changed the way elections are administered.Democrats, civil rights groups, businesses and voting rights organizations denounced the Georgia law. President Biden called it “Jim Crow 2.0,” and Major League Baseball moved its All-Star game out of Atlanta in protest. But some of the public outcry focused on provisions that ended up being removed from the final version, such as banning voting on Sundays (the law allows counties the option of providing Sunday voting, and added a second mandatory Saturday of early voting).In this week’s primary, there are no major statewide battles for a Democratic nomination, with Stacey Abrams running largely uncontested for governor and Senator Raphael Warnock running as an incumbent for re-election. In the three weeks of early voting, 483,149 Republicans voted early, compared with 368,949 Democrats.The law instituted new regulations for mail voting, such as additional identification requirements and limits on how drop boxes could be deployed. During the 2020 election, counties across the state relied heavily on drop boxes, which were permitted by a ruling from the state’s election board, to help voters returning absentee ballots.But the new law sought to rein in their use, capping the number of drop boxes at one per 100,000 registered voters in a county — which could cut the amount of drop boxes in urban areas by as much as two-thirds — and limiting their availability to office hours. The law did, however, codify drop boxes as an option for voters into state election law.Overall turnout for absentee voting has been difficult to parse so far.During the 2020 election, when voters turned en masse to mail ballots because of the pandemic, more than 1.1 million Georgians voted by mail in the primary, and in 2018, fewer than 30,000 voted absentee. This year, more than 61,000 voted absentee in the primary, an increase over 2018 but less than 10 percent of the 2020 totals.Voters in primaries also tend to be more motivated and engaged than general-election voters, and they are more likely to be aware of new rules and willing to work through them to cast ballots.“The people who are highly engaged are the people who are voting in primaries, and those highly engaged people are often most equipped to get around any sort of change to voting,” said Michael McDonald, a voter turnout expert at the University of Florida.Gov. Brian Kemp, campaigning in the final days of his Republican primary race for governor, condemned Democrats for their criticism of the law, suggesting that their claims that it was “suppressive” were hyperbolic and politically motivated.Understand the Battle Over U.S. Voting RightsCard 1 of 6Why are voting rights an issue now? More

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    In Texas, a Proxy Fight Over Democrats’ Stance on Immigration

    LAREDO, Texas — Just a month after President Biden took office, pledging to roll back Trump-era policies in an attempt to take a more humane approach to immigration, Representative Henry Cuellar, a Democrat from South Texas, began to sound an alarm.He warned that the number of migrants seeking to enter the country would rise, and soon released photos of children sleeping under tinfoil blankets at a crowded migrant processing facility in his district at the edge of the U.S.-Mexico border.Now Mr. Cuellar, 68, has become one of the administration’s most consistent critics on immigration, appearing on Fox News and at times echoing Republicans, saying immigrants are pouring into the United States because they believe “that the border is open.”His criticism has been met with fierce resistance from Jessica Cisneros, 28, a progressive immigration lawyer who is trying to unseat him in a Democratic runoff on Tuesday. Like other Democratic primary contests, their race is a proxy battle for the broader direction of a party that is being tugged between moderate and progressive wings. But in particular, it encapsulates the acute tensions within the party on immigration.In interviews with Democratic leaders and voters in Texas’ 28th Congressional District, which stretches from Laredo to San Antonio, many expressed a deep frustration with both national Democrats and Republicans who use the border as a political backdrop but have failed to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws, combat the drug trade or improve legal pathways to citizenship.And many worried that Democrats lack a forceful and coherent message when facing Republicans who have appeared increasingly intent on portraying a migrant “invasion,” making it a marquee issue of the midterm elections.Mr. Cuellar is often at the center of the debate. His supporters say he is simply trying to balance competing Democratic factions on the issue, as the G.O.P. has largely abandoned policy-centered debate in favor of anti-immigrant appeals. But he is criticized just as much by Democrats concerned he sounds too much like a Republican, focused on enforcement rather than a humanitarian approach.Maxine Rebeles, a middle-school teacher and immigration activist, at Jessica Cisneros’s campaign office in Laredo.Kaylee Greenlee for The New York Times“He is opening the door to something that can get really, really ugly, really, really quick,” said Maxine Rebeles, a middle-school teacher and immigrant activist with the No Border Wall immigrant rights coalition based in Laredo.Outside a bustling polling station at a Laredo firehouse, where a light breeze provided respite on a sweltering day, Mr. Cuellar rejected the criticism from what he called the far left. He said he favored immigration proposals to help workers, and pathways to citizenship for people who were brought to the country illegally at a young age.But Mr. Cuellar, whose brother is the Webb County sheriff, said he also was attuned to the needs of community leaders and immigration officials in his district who have voiced concerns about the lack of resources to process increases in arriving migrants. “I speak against the Republicans who want a fence or a wall, I speak against them when they call this an invasion — it’s not an invasion,” Mr. Cuellar said in between bantering with supporters. But, he added, “I am in the middle — speaking against both sides.”Mr. Cuellar, who is in the political fight of his career, remains part of an open F.B.I. investigation, though officials have not released any details.Asked whether Democrats were lacking a cohesive message on immigration, Mr. Cuellar agreed. He said he was most worried that Republicans were filling that vacuum by painting Democrats as soft on crime.Asked the same question, Ms. Cisneros took a shot at members of Congress out of step with the Biden administration, like Mr. Cuellar, who she said was playing into the kind of right-wing talking points that had fueled white supremacist mass shootings in Buffalo and El Paso.Representative Henry Cuellar thanked a campaign volunteer outside an early voting location in Laredo, Texas.Kaylee Greenlee for The New York Times“Henry Cuellar is pivoting to these xenophobic lines of attacks that just create a target on our backs,” said Ms. Cisneros, who called Mr. Cuellar “Trump’s favorite Democrat.” She added that she would bring her own professional experience as an immigration lawyer to bear when shaping border policy.For years, conservative Democrats who represent border communities, like Mr. Cuellar, have sought to strike a balance: espousing the benefits of immigration for trade, business and the social fabric of their predominantly Latino communities, while talking tough on the need to increase funds for surveillance and law enforcement along the southern border.But that balance has slipped out of reach. Attempts to pass bipartisan immigration laws have failed for decades, and harsh anti-immigration language and policies have become central Republican approaches since the rise of former President Donald J. Trump.Republicans in this midterm cycle have poured nearly $70 million into 325 unique ads on border security and immigration, many painting dystopian conditions at the nation’s southern border and several using language of “invasion,” according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.Democrats, by contrast, have spent only $8 million on 46 ads on immigration — and one from Mr. Cuellar attacked Ms. Cisneros for progressive immigration policies he claimed would cut border enforcement officers’ jobs and lead to “open borders.”Jessica Cisneros, Mr. Cuellar’s opponent, said she would bring her experience as an immigration lawyer to bear when shaping border policy.Kaylee Greenlee for The New York TimesDemocrats at first seemed to move to the left in response to the Trump administration’s harsh stance on immigration issues. During the 2020 presidential primary, most candidates backed a policy of decriminalizing border crossings. But since then, some in the party and in pro-immigrant organizations have criticized what they see as backtracking on the issue as Republicans double down.Marisa Franco, who served on the immigration committee of a Democratic unity task force formed by President Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, calls the party’s stance on immigration “capitulation.”“Republicans are putting out solutions — and instead of countering their horrible solutions, Democrats are either not talking about it or they’re by default legitimizing the point of view that immigration and immigrants are bad,” said Ms. Franco, the executive director of Mijente, a liberal Latino advocacy group. “In the face of really nasty stuff, they’re ducking and running.”Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More