Subterms
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
When he ran for the Senate four years ago, Democrat Beto O’Rourke won just 61 percent in the primary. In Hidalgo County, on the border with Mexico, he won just 50 percent. But today, with two-thirds of the Hidalgo vote in, Mr. O’Rourke was at 81 percent, suggesting he would do far better in the […] More
Texas
GovernorTX-15TX-28
Gov. Greg Abbott has vocal primary opponents, including Allen West, the former chairman of the state’s Republican Party. Beto O’Rourke, the former El Paso congressman and a former presidential candidate, is expected to win the Democratic nomination. For attorney general, three Republicans are challenging the scandal-plagued and Trump-endorsed incumbent, Ken Paxton. The congressional races to watch include an open seat in the 15th District — where the parties are pretty evenly matched — and a Democratic primary between Representative Henry Cuellar and a progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros, who narrowly lost to him in 2020.
Ohio
GovernorSenate
The Senate race features several state politicians looking to out-Trump one another against Tim Ryan, the likely Democratic nominee and a former presidential candidate from Youngstown. Republicans are favored in a state that has trended red in recent election cycles. At the House level, former President Donald J. Trump is backing Max Miller for the seat being vacated by Anthony Gonzalez, a Republican who voted for his impeachment.
Indiana
Senate
Nebraska
Governor
Representative Don Bacon, a Republican, is running for re-election in the Second Congressional District, where he narrowly defeated a Democratic challenger in 2018 and 2020. The Democratic primary is likely to come down to Tony Vargas, a state senator, and Alisha Shelton, a mental health practitioner. Nebraskans will also elect a successor to Gov. Pete Ricketts, a Republican who has reached his term limit.
West Virginia
North Carolina
SenateNC-13
With the Republican senator Richard Burr retiring, the race to fill his open seat will be one of the key statewide races that help determine control of the Senate. In the Republican primary, former Gov. Pat McCrory is running against former Representative Mark Walker and Representative Ted Budd, who has former President Donald J. Trump’s endorsement. Cheri Beasley is favored to win the Democratic primary. She would be the first Black woman to serve in the Senate from North Carolina.
Oregon
GovernorSenateOR-05
Kentucky
Senate
Pennsylvania
GovernorSenatePA-17PA-07PA-08
Open seats for Senate and governor have set off a land rush. The Senate Republican primary includes the celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz and a former hedge fund executive, David McCormick. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is the early front-runner in a field that also includes Representative Conor Lamb. For governor, Democrats coalesced early around Attorney General Josh Shapiro; the Republican primary has more than a dozen hopefuls and no clear front-runner.
Idaho
GovernorSenate
Gov. Brad Little is expected to seek re-election, and he is likely to face a primary challenge from his own lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin. Ms. McGeachin, one of several Republicans in the race, is running as a close ally of former President Donald J. Trump.
Alabama
GovernorSenate
Senator Richard Shelby is retiring after more than 30 years in office. The state’s Republican establishment backs Katie Britt, Mr. Shelby’s former chief of staff. But former President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Representative Mo Brooks.
Georgia
GovernorSenate
Nowhere are there more elections to watch than in Georgia. Senator Raphael Warnock and Stacey Abrams lead a strong Democratic field in marquee races. Senator Warnock’s re-election bid for a full term in the seat he won last year is critical to Democrats’ hope of maintaining Senate control; former President Donald J. Trump endorsed his challenger, Herschel Walker. Ms. Abrams is seeking to defeat Gov. Brian Kemp, the Republican who beat her by a small margin in 2018 — but first, Gov. Kemp will have to best David Perdue, the Trump-backed former senator, in the primary. At the House level, redistricting is expected to pit two Democrats against one other. The secretary of state race is notable: Mr. Trump endorsed Representative Jody Hice to challenge Brad Raffensperger, the Republican incumbent who rejected the former president’s efforts to overturn the election.
Arkansas
GovernorSenate
The races in this deep-red state will essentially be decided in Republican primaries, and the results could help clarify the strength of former President Donald J. Trump’s hold on the party. He has endorsed his former press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders for governor and the Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin for attorney general. He also supports the re-election of Senator John Boozman.
California
GovernorSenateCA-13CA-22CA-27CA-45CA-47
Gov. Gavin Newsom is on the ballot, but Californians essentially re-elected him in last year’s failed recall effort. This year, we’re watching the Los Angeles mayor’s race and the June 7 recall vote against San Francisco’s district attorney. In the fall, the state controller and attorney general races could show whether Californians would consider a Republican of any kind for statewide office. The U.S. House majority could hinge on a few congressional seats in California. And sports betting is likely to be on the ballot.
Iowa
GovernorSenateIA-03
In the Senate race, Democrats are hoping that Abby Finkenauer, a former representative, can beat Charles E. Grassley, the longtime Republican senator. The incumbent Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, is strongly favored to win re-election. And in the newly redrawn Third District, Republicans hope to unseat Representative Cindy Axne, a two-term Democrat.
Mississippi
Montana
Montana gained a new congressional district after the census, doubling its delegation. Representative Matt Rosendale, a Republican who currently represents the whole state, is expected to win re-election in the Second Congressional District. The First District is more competitive but leans red: Ryan Zinke, the former secretary of the interior, is the most prominent Republican candidate, and Democrats include Cora Neumann, a rural health care leader; Monica Tranel, a lawyer; and Tom Winter, a former state representative.
New Jersey
NJ-07
Democrats flipped several House seats in New Jersey during the Trump era. But after making headway in a closer-than-expected governor’s race last year, energized Republicans see fresh opportunities in the state. All eyes will be on how many House seats become truly competitive.
New Mexico
GovernorNM-02
Republicans think they have a chance to unseat Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat. Their crowded primary includes Rebecca Dow, a state legislator, and Mark Ronchetti, a former television meteorologist. The state also has two competitive House seats: Yvette Herrell, a freshman Republican, will defend the seat she took from a Democrat in 2020, and Republicans are planning to focus on Teresa Leger Fernández, a Democrat.
South Dakota
GovernorSenate
Maine
GovernorME-02
Representative Jared Golden is up for re-election in Trump-friendly territory in northern Maine. Mr. Golden is the only Democrat left in Congress who voted against impeaching former President Donald J. Trump. He is likely to face a rematch against Bruce Poliquin, the Republican he ousted in 2018. Paul R. LePage, a Republican former governor, is running for his old job, hoping to oust Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat.
Nevada
GovernorSenateNV-01NV-03NV-04
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, is likely to face Adam Laxalt, the Republican former state attorney general who has the backing of both former President Donald J. Trump and Senator Mitch McConnell. Jim Marchant, a Trump-backed Republican who has sowed doubts about the 2020 election, is running for secretary of state. And in a state that President Biden won narrowly in 2020, Republicans are looking to beat incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat.
North Dakota
Senate
South Carolina
GovernorSenate
Gov. Henry McMaster is seeking re-election with former President Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, and none of his primary challengers seem to have built traction against him. Joe Cunningham, a Democrat, is vying for the governor’s seat instead of running for his old House district, which is no longer competitive after redistricting. He faces State Senator Mia McLeod in the primary. Senator Tim Scott, a Republican, is up for re-election.
Virginia
VA-02VA-07
Glenn Youngkin’s successful bid for governor in 2021 jolted Virginia politics after years of Democratic dominance, energizing Republicans. This year, at least two House Democrats face tough re-election campaigns: Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria. Republicans are also hoping to unseat Representative Jennifer Wexton in a suburban district outside Washington, D.C.
New York
GovernorSenateNY-11NY-18NY-01
Prominent Democratic officials including Gov. Kathy Hochul and the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, will face voters. Ms. Hochul is running for her first full term, after the resignation of Andrew M. Cuomo, and has the advantage in the primary. Republicans are also engaged in a contested primary for governor and see opportunities to make inroads in general election races up and down the ballot.
Illinois
GovernorSenateIL-13IL-14IL-17IL-06
Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, is the favorite to win re-election, but there’s a competitive primary on the right, and wealthy megadonors are backing two of the Republicans, Richard Irvin and Darren Bailey. The state’s marquee race pits two congressional Democrats against each other in the new Sixth District: Representatives Marie Newman and Sean Casten. Ms. Newman is the subject of an ethics investigation. There is a member-on-member primary on the right, too: Representatives Mary Miller and Rodney Davis will face off in the 15th District.
Colorado
GovernorSenateCO-08
This blue-trending state will feature two statewide races. One is for the U.S. Senate, where Michael Bennet, a Democrat, is seeking re-election to his third full term. The other is for governor: Jared Polis, a popular Democrat, is running for re-election. Redistricting has created a new, competitive district just north of Denver.
Maryland
GovernorSenateMD-01
With the Republican governor, Larry Hogan, reaching his term limit, Democrats are clamoring to take back the office. Republicans wanted Mr. Hogan to run for Senate against Chris Van Hollen, but he declined. Democrats also hope to oust Representative Andy Harris in the First District, while Republican sights are on David Trone in the Sixth District.
Oklahoma
GovernorSenate
Utah
Senate
Kansas
GovernorSenateKS-03
Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat who won an upset victory in 2018, is running for re-election in a more challenging environment, most likely against Derek Schmidt, the state attorney general endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump. Representative Sharice Davids, the only Democrat in Kansas’ congressional delegation, could be at risk, too. Kansans will also vote in August on a constitutional amendment that would enable the state to ban abortion if the U.S. Supreme Court were to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Arizona
GovernorSenateAZ-01AZ-06
In one of the nation’s most competitive governor races, the candidates include Kari Lake, a Trump-endorsed Republican, and Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state who gained national attention after the 2020 election. Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, is in a fierce contest to retain the seat he just won in 2020, and several Republican candidates are challenging him. Mark Finchem, a state legislator who promotes election conspiracy theories, is one of several candidates for secretary of state.
Washington
SenateWA-08
Two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald J. Trump are seeking re-election in Washington: Dan Newhouse and Jaime Herrera Beutler. Now, they both face primary challenges. Mr. Trump endorsed Joe Kent, a U.S. Special Forces veteran, in the primary against Ms. Herrera Beutler. Republicans are also hoping to flip the seat of Representative Kim Schrier, a Democrat.
Michigan
GovernorMI-10MI-03MI-07MI-08
Few candidates draw the ire of the Republican base like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, who is running for re-election in what will likely be a close race. At least five of Michigan’s 13 House races should be competitive in November. And the Democratic secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, who has faced violent threats for standing up to efforts to subvert the election, could face a well-funded Republican challenger, such as Kristina Karamo, a Trump-backed conservative.
Missouri
Senate
Republicans are lining up to replace the retiring Senator Roy Blunt, including: Eric Schmitt, the state’s attorney general; Eric Greitens, a scandal-plagued former governor; and Representative Vicky Hartzler, who was endorsed by Senator Josh Hawley. On the Democratic side, Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran, and State Senator Scott Sifton are the top contenders.
Tennessee
Governor
Connecticut
GovernorSenate
Vermont
GovernorSenate
Minnesota
GovernorMN-02
Five Republicans are vying to challenge Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat seeking his second term. Scott Jensen, a physician and a former state senator who has cast doubt on coronavirus mitigation efforts and vaccines, faces Paul Gazelka, a former majority leader of the Minnesota State Senate, and three lesser-known candidates. The state G.O.P. will formally back a candidate at a May convention; each of the Republican candidates has pledged to drop out of the race if denied the party’s endorsement.
Wisconsin
GovernorSenate
Both parties have difficult and expensive primaries: Democrats for the chance to challenge Senator Ron Johnson and Republicans for the office of Gov. Tony Evers. The leading Democrat in the Senate race is Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. In the Republican primary for governor, the former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is the favorite against Kevin Nicholson, an ex-Marine who lost a 2018 Senate primary but has the backing of the billionaire megadonor Richard Uihlein.
Hawaii
GovernorSenate
Alaska
GovernorSenate
Senator Lisa Murkowski faces a stout challenge from fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka, whom former President Donald J. Trump endorsed. Both Ms. Murkowski and Ms. Tshibaka are expected to advance to the general election because of the state’s new open-primary rules, in which the top four finishers will appear on the November ballot.
Wyoming
Governor
In the country’s highest-profile House primary, Representative Liz Cheney is trying to hold back a Trump-inspired challenge from Harriet Hageman, a longtime activist in the state Republican Party. Ms. Cheney has framed the race as a referendum on democracy, while Ms. Hageman has stressed her loyalty to the former president.
Florida
GovernorSenate
Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, is widely considered to be harboring White House ambitions. But, first, he is seeking re-election in a state that has been shifting away from Democrats. Representative Charlie Crist, a former governor, and Nikki Fried, the state agriculture commissioner, are among those competing for the Democratic nomination. The other big-name Republican on the ballot: Senator Marco Rubio, who won his second term in 2016 after bowing out of the G.O.P. presidential primary. Representative Val Demings is the Democratic favorite to take him on.
Massachusetts
Governor
With Gov. Charlie Baker, a moderate Republican, declining to run for re-election, the office is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in one of the nation’s most liberal states. The Democratic primary includes the state attorney general, Maura Healey, and at least two candidates running to her left. The Republican nomination is likely to go to Geoff Diehl, a former state lawmaker endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump.
New Hampshire
GovernorSenate
In a key Senate race, Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, is up for re-election after narrowly winning the seat in 2016. Whoever emerges from the Republican primary — current contenders include the state Senate president, Chuck Morse — might still benefit in November from President Biden’s low approval in the state.
Rhode Island
GovernorRI-02
Louisiana
Senate
General Election More
The Republican State Convention is giving party leaders a chance to test messages about crime, inflation and Democratic leadership.GARDEN CITY, N.Y. — Four months after Republicans scored upset victories around the country and in local races across New York, the state’s party leaders gathered at a plush hotel in a Long Island village this week, painting a bleak picture of life under Democratic rule.Gas prices are spiking, and groceries are pricey. Concerns around crime are reordering politics in major cities at home, and Americans are shaken by images of war abroad. Debates around mask mandates and curriculum have turned school board meetings into political battlegrounds.“People are very, very unhappy,” said Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and one of a number of Republican candidates who unexpectedly defeated Democrats in races across Long Island last fall. “That usually bodes very poorly for the party in power.”Across the nation, Republicans are clearly preparing to test how deep into liberal territory they can push in the midterm campaigns, at an exceptionally challenging moment for President Biden and his party.If they can make real inroads in New York after years in the political wilderness, the thinking goes, that will offer a clear indication of a political wave underway.Republicans overtly and implicitly embraced that imagery at their state convention that began on Monday — a surfboard was even displayed outside the convention hall. Inside, party leaders endorsed candidates for major offices and road-tested messages about crime and rampant inflation while offering broader indictments of Democratic leadership.“You could have people getting buried that don’t think they have a race today,” Nicholas A. Langworthy, the chairman of the New York Republican State Committee, said in an interview. “This is a hurricane coming at our back. People are really pissed off.”A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.Just where the high-water mark for Republicans reaches remains to be seen. A Republican has not won a statewide race in New York since George E. Pataki secured a third term as governor in 2002, a now-distant era of consensus politics.In the years since, Democrats have amassed a more than two-to-one advantage in party registration, fueled in part by antipathy toward former President Donald J. Trump, and have locked-in congressional and legislative districts that could fortify them this fall.Republicans have struggled to attract viable candidates in key races for Senate and attorney general. And many of their contenders face the difficult balancing act of first appealing to a primary electorate that embraces Mr. Trump, and then to a broader electorate that has firmly rejected the former president.“Republicans are spending time creating false narratives to blame Democrats for these problems, but I think people are going to vote for the party that is working to find and enact solutions,” said Jay S. Jacobs, the chairman of the New York State Democratic Committee. “It’s March. We’ve got till November. And today’s reality is not going to be tomorrow’s.”Republicans say they are riding a wave of voter discontent with Democratic incumbents.Johnny Milano for The New York TimesBut at the Republican State Convention and in interviews with party officials, candidates and strategists, Republicans made it plain that they see opportunities not only to compete in the governor’s race but also to outperform expectations in congressional and state legislative districts from Long Island to Rochester that usually favor Democrats.Their plan for races in Democratic-leaning areas goes like this: Keep the focus on matters of public safety, cost of living, education and in some cases coronavirus-related mandates. Make the midterms a referendum on Democratic leadership in Washington and Albany. Engage constituencies, including Asian American and Latino voters, that have been receptive to Republicans. And capitalize at every turn on a brutal political environment for the Democrats.A recent Washington Post-ABC poll found that Mr. Biden’s national approval rating was at 37 percent. Even in New York, Mr. Biden’s favorability rating was the same as his negative rating — 48 percent — his lowest levels since taking office and a striking result in one of the most heavily Democratic states in the country, according to a recent Siena College poll of registered voters in New York.The Republican convention unfolded against the backdrop of devastating images from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a preview of how they may move to nationalize down-ballot races this year, several speakers made the war in Europe a central piece of their messaging and sought to paint national Democratic leadership as weak and feckless, though Mr. Trump has put Republicans in a bind by lavishing praise on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.“We need a change in Washington,” Mr. Pataki said on Monday, ripping into the Biden administration’s stewardship of the crisis in Ukraine. “We need a Republican Congress to hold this president accountable, we need a Republican Senate to hold this leader accountable, and to get the United States headed in the right direction.”Some of Mr. Pataki’s allies had hoped he would head back toward Albany with another run for governor. Mr. Pataki, 76, did not firmly rule out such an idea on Monday, but he did tell reporters he expected one of four contenders to emerge as the nominee: Representative Lee Zeldin of Long Island; Harry Wilson, a businessman; Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County executive; or Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.The race appears to be in flux, with the recent Siena poll showing Mr. Zeldin, who has been named the presumptive nominee by party leaders, and Mr. Astorino as largely unknown quantities. Mr. Giuliani, perhaps because of his famous last name, was more polarizing, with a favorable rating of 47 percent among Republicans but a matching unfavorable rating among voters overall.He significantly trails Mr. Zeldin and Mr. Astorino in fund-raising, according to the last campaign finance disclosure, but he cited his favorability ratings among Republicans as evidence of his ability to connect with voters.Mr. Giuliani said in an interview that his father, whose zealous efforts to overturn the 2020 election results have made him a pariah among many New Yorkers, would campaign for him in coming weeks.Mr. Zeldin is favored to receive his party’s endorsement on Tuesday. But Mr. Wilson’s late entry into the race last week and the effort to draft Mr. Pataki to attempt a comeback point to some discontent around Mr. Zeldin, who has a long legislative track record in Albany and Washington that includes voting to overturn the 2020 elections results.That could be a major liability in a general election against Gov. Kathy Hochul, the likely Democratic nominee and a relative moderate who some Republicans believe will be harder to beat than her predecessor, Andrew M. Cuomo, who resigned in disgrace, would have been.Ms. Hochul is “a refreshing change from all of the nonsense that people were subjected to,” said former Senator Alfonse M. D’Amato, a Republican who said he has not yet decided how he will vote. “That’s going to be much tougher for Republicans, notwithstanding that the congressman, Lee Zeldin, is a very fine person, he’s done a good job. I think the Trump business, though, is going to hurt him.”Asked about those dynamics, Mr. Zeldin argued that voters are animated by other issues and said he was focused on “reversing the attacks on wallets, safety, freedom and our kids’ education.”But there is no question that Mr. Trump will be a factor both in the coming months of the primary and in the general election.Mr. Wilson, who has pledged to spend roughly $10 million of his own money in the race, is viewed privately by some Democrats as a stronger general election contender, but it has often been difficult for candidates who did not support Mr. Trump to make it through Republican primaries. Mr. Wilson voted for him in 2016 but wrote in Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations, in 2020, he said.Mr. Wilson, the party’s 2010 nominee for comptroller, is casting himself as an outsider with a record of turning around companies and a focus on matters of public safety, the economy and quality of life. He and Mr. Zeldin have both started spending on airtime.“We desperately need capable, rational leadership in Albany,” he said.Representative Tom Reed, a Republican in the state’s Southern Tier who is set to retire this year, said he was concerned that his party was headed for a messy primary that could undercut its chances in a race for governor that is already an “uphill battle.”“My hope is that it’s not bloody, that it’s not negative and we get through it as quickly as possible and unite,” said Mr. Reed, who was contemplating his own bid for governor before he was accused of inappropriately touching a lobbyist. “Because we all know winning the governor’s office in New York is a very, very difficult path to traverse for a Republican, even in a wave year.” More
Texas is holding the first primary election of 2022 on Tuesday. Some of the dynamics at play include the intensity of Donald Trump’s continued hold on the Republican electorate.HOUSTON — The Texas primaries on Tuesday will provide the first pieces of the 2022 midterm puzzle.The strength of the two parties’ ideological factions. The intensity of Donald J. Trump’s continued hold on the Republican electorate. And, for bullish Republicans, the earliest signs of how advantageous the political climate has become.The full picture of the 2022 landscape will be revealed through a series of state-by-state primaries held over the next six months. But the country’s first primary elections in Texas represent almost a sneak peek of many of the coming dynamics nationwide in an increasingly challenging environment for President Biden and the Democrats. That includes the impact of strict new voting rules imposed by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature and the political salience of abortion for both parties.A Texas state law last year effectively banned most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, and this year a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court is expected in the Mississippi abortion case, which could affect procedures in multiple states. In South Texas, progressives are attempting to defeat one of the last anti-abortion Democrats remaining in Congress, Representative Henry Cuellar, and they received a political gift when the F.B.I. recently raided his home. Falling short under those circumstances would be a blow for the left after Mr. Cuellar narrowly won two years ago.At the top of the ticket, Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, is widely expected to vault past two spirited right-wing challengers. But he is also likely to come nowhere close to the 90 percent he marshaled in his last primary four years ago, a testament to an increasingly restive Republican base.Mr. Abbott has aggressively catered to that base over the last year and in the campaign’s closing days, telling state agencies to investigate treatment for transgender adolescents as “child abuse” and suggesting he might pardon more than a dozen Austin police officers who were indicted on charges of using excessive force during racial justice protests in 2020.“Governor Abbott is running very hard and taking the campaign very, very seriously,” said Ray Sullivan, a Republican strategist who served under two Texas governors, Rick Perry and George W. Bush. “There is an ongoing battle: the mainstream conservatives versus more right-wing, more conspiratorial and paranoid voices. Some of the primary elections will help determine where the energy is in the party.”After redistricting, Texas lawmakers erased nearly all the House seats that were competitive in the general election from the map in 2022, magnifying the importance of a handful of contested primaries in both parties. Republicans, in particular, are hoping to build on the dramatic gains the party made in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, particularly among working-class Latino voters in 2020, in the state’s lone open, tossup seat.Nationwide, Republicans are energized by the chance to take back both the House, which the Democrats control by a historically narrow margin, and the Senate, which is equally divided with only Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote giving control to the Democrats.Mr. Biden’s sagging approval ratings — not just in Texas but even in Democratic strongholds like California — and the lingering cloud of the coronavirus on life, the economy and schools have emboldened many Republican voters, candidates and strategists.But Republicans fear nominating candidates outside the mainstream. The party suffered a series of stinging defeats in two otherwise favorable cycles in the recent past, 2014 and 2010, with candidates who repelled broad swaths of the political middle that still decides elections.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.The concern among Texas Republicans chiefly centers on the attorney general, Ken Paxton, who has attracted the attention of federal investigators after some of his own top aides accused him of corruption.Despite the hostile national climate, Democrats have scored some notable recruiting successes, including two high-profile candidates who came up just short in 2018: Beto O’Rourke, who is running for governor of Texas, and Stacey Abrams, who is running again for governor of Georgia.Beto O’Rourke campaigning for Texas governor in Tyler in early February.Montinique Monroe for The New York TimesMr. O’Rourke, whose Democratic nomination is mostly a formality, has been crisscrossing the state and raising money at a fast clip: $3 million in the last month. But Mr. Abbott, a prolific fund-raiser, outpaced him and entered the final days before the primary with $50 million on hand, compared to $6.8 million for Mr. O’Rourke.Texas has a two-step primary system: Any candidate who finishes below 50 percent will face off against the No. 2 vote-getter in a May runoff.Mr. Abbott appears to be leaving nothing to chance, spending $15 million in the last month alone and seeking to leave little daylight for his conservative opponents as he has overseen a sharp push to the far right in state government.Still, Mr. Abbott, who has Mr. Trump’s support, was booed in January at a Trump rally north of Houston, only winning over the crowd by invoking the president’s name more than two dozen times in his six-minute speech.“I think Greg Abbott has been in long enough,” said Anita Brown, 62, who attended a recent rally for a right-wing House candidate in The Woodlands, a suburban enclave north of Houston. “I would just like to have someone new.”Texas is where Mr. Trump suffered one of his rare primary endorsement defeats last year, in a House race, and while he has issued a range of endorsements, from governor down to Tarrant County District Attorney, he has mostly backed incumbents and heavy favorites.Bigger tests of his influence loom later in the spring and summer, in the Senate contests in North Carolina and Alabama, and in the governor’s race in Georgia. In that Georgia race, Mr. Trump recruited David Perdue, a former senator and governor, to attempt to unseat Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican who refused to bend to Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.In Texas, Mr. Paxton, a regular guest on Fox News, commands the endorsement of Mr. Trump, but remains vulnerable because of his legal troubles: On top of his aides’ accusations of corruption, the Texas attorney general has been under indictment for securities fraud since 2015.His range of challengers represent the various Republican power centers vying to be the future of the party.There is George P. Bush, the son of Jeb Bush and a statewide office holder who has held himself out as the most electable conservative in the race, and Eva Guzman, a former state Supreme Court justice who has the backing of some traditional, business-aligned power players in Republican politics.Representative Louie Gohmert, a Trump ally whose speeches and remarks frequently land him on national television, is also running. He attended the Trump rally in Texas and got an unexpected shout-out, despite the former president’s endorsement of Mr. Paxton. Mr. Gohmert also posed with Mr. Trump during a photo line at the rally, but the Trump team refused to send Mr. Gohmert the picture, because they did not want him to use it in the primary, according to a person familiar with the exchange.Representative Louie Gohmert spoke at a forum in Midland with two other Republican candidates for attorney general, Eva Guzman, center, and George P. Bush, right.Tamir Kalifa for The New York TimesThe race has been multidimensional. Ms. Guzman has swiped at Mr. Bush, whose family dynasty has been weakened even among Texas Republicans. Mr. Bush has responded in kind. Mr. Paxton has traded attacks with Mr. Gohmert and, in recent days, started going after Ms. Guzman as well.“We haven’t seen a primary this consequential since the 1990s,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston.The race is less about policy positions as it is about who holds power in the Republican Party now. “It will tell us a lot about Donald Trump’s juice in Texas,” Mr. Rottinghaus said.Mr. Paxton finished behind the rest of the Republican ticket in 2018, raising some fears that his renomination this year could provide a rare opening for Democrats in November. Republicans have won every statewide race in Texas since 1994.The national battle for power within the Republican Party is centered on the district of retiring Representative Kevin Brady, north of Houston, where a super PAC aligned with Representative Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader, has spent heavily to elect Morgan Luttrell, a Navy SEAL veteran. The activist wing of House Republicans has rallied behind Christian Collins, a former aide to Senator Ted Cruz.While the super PAC aligned with Mr. McCarthy is aiding Mr. Luttrell, the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus is boosting Mr. Collins.At a recent rally for Mr. Collins, Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina made clear that their support for Mr. Collins was about opposition to the existing political order in Washington.“This is primary season,” Ms. Greene said. “This is where we work out our differences. This is where iron sharpens iron.”On the Democratic side, two primaries pit the party’s ideological wings against each other.The race for one open seat features a socialist Austin city councilman, Greg Casar, taking on State Representative Eddie Rodriguez. The other race is in South Texas between Mr. Cuellar and a young progressive lawyer, Jessica Cisneros — a rematch in which abortion has been an issue for the district’s large number of Catholic voters.Both races have attracted attention from national progressive figures, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts — to the frustration of some Texas Democrats. They view the progressives’ efforts as potentially counterproductive for a party that has been losing ground among traditional Democratic voters in places like South Texas.“I get what people do on the fund-raising side,” said James Aldrete, a Democratic consultant. But unless Democrats do more to address the concerns of low-turnout voters, particularly in Hispanic communities, Mr. Aldrete added, “we’ll be in the same boat: no growth in the statehouse, no growth in the congressional delegation, no Democrat elected statewide.”When Ms. Ocasio-Cortez declared at a rally for Mr. Casar and Ms. Cisneros that “Texas turning blue is inevitable,” the clip was immediately picked up by Republicans, including Mr. Abbott, and wielded as an attack.“She was doing the work for Republicans,” said Matt Angle, a Democratic activist whose political action committee aims to unseat Republicans in Texas. He noted that Texas Democrats are more moderate in their approach to politics and more conservative in their views on issues like guns and abortion than national party leaders.“It’s a field trip for them,” Mr. Angle added. “For us, it’s the future of the state.” More
The process behind calling elections: how The Times will report live election results during the 2022 primary season.The 2022 primary season begins on Tuesday with elections in Texas, and The New York Times will be reporting the results live on its website and apps. Here’s how it all works.The ResultsHow does The Times get live election results?Our live results are provided by The Associated Press. To produce its results, The A.P. combines data feeds from state and county websites with on-the-ground reporting by more than 4,000 correspondents who gather vote tallies from county clerks and other local officials after polls close. The Times has also occasionally published data from other results providers.How often are the results updated on election night?When The A.P. gets reports from states, it checks the vote totals for potential inconsistencies or errors. Then it sends the updated data to The Times and other customers about every one to three minutes. Calls projecting winners are sent immediately.Times journalists and engineers have written software that automatically downloads and publishes the results within seconds. Don’t worry about refreshing the page — the results will update automatically.Why do I see different vote counts on different websites?Not every news organization gets its election results from The A.P. like The Times does. There are two other election results providers used by news organizations: Edison Research and Decision Desk HQ. State or local election officials often display their own results as well.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.These sources can have different counts on election night, depending on the speed and scope of their reporting on a particular race. The results from all providers may not match until all the votes are counted.How does The Times track the share of votes reported in a given election?For years, election results providers used the percentage of precincts reporting to help give readers a sense of how many votes remain to be counted. Not anymore. The rise of mail-in voting and early voting has made the measure all but useless in many states, since absentee votes are usually not counted by precinct. This has often left readers and analysts at a loss about how many votes remain to be counted.This year, The Times will be publishing its own estimates for the number of remaining votes.Early in the night, these estimates will be based on our pre-election expectations for the eventual turnout, based on prior elections and early voting data. Once The A.P. reports that a county has largely completed its count, we will compare the reported vote with our pre-election expectations and gradually revise our expectations for the eventual turnout. We expect these estimates will be better than the old “precincts reporting” metric, but they are still only estimates. They will not usually reflect official information on the number of remaining votes.What’s a precinct?A precinct is the smallest level at which election results are reported. A precinct may be a few city blocks or an entire county.The WinnersHow does The Times call winners?In virtually every race, we rely on The A.P.’s calls. It employs a team of analysts, researchers and race callers who have a deep understanding of the states where they declare winners.In addition to overall vote totals, race callers pay attention to county-level votes, votes by type of ballot and where there are ballots left to count.The A.P. describes its decision-making process as “aimed at determining the answer to a single question: Can the trailing candidates catch the leader?” And only when the answer is an unquestionable “no” will The A.P. call the race.In a very small number of high-profile contests, The Times independently scrutinizes and evaluates A.P. race calls before making a projection.How can The Times call a race before any votes are counted?News organizations can project a winner, even with no results, if the race was not closely contested or the party or candidate has a history of consistent wins in the county or state. In some cases, The A.P. also relies on the results of a pre-election survey to help make a decision.Most major news media organizations, including The A.P., wait until polls are closed before calling a winner.The MapsWhy does my state’s election map look as if it’s dominated by a candidate even though that person is behind in the vote totals? More
The first election night of the 2022 midterms has some famous names and crowded primary races. Here’s a rundown.The midterms officially begin on Tuesday with the primary election in Texas. There are a few key themes to keep an eye on:What will Democratic turnout be like in the first midterm of Biden’s presidency?Hispanic voter turnout: Republicans exceeded expectations in garnering their support in 2020. Will that trend continue?How well will Republican candidates endorsed by Donald Trump fare against equally Trumpy competitors?In Texas, candidates only win the party nomination if they surpass 50 percent of the primary vote. If nobody reaches 50 percent on Tuesday, the top two vote getters will advance to a runoff on May 24.The more candidates in an individual race, the more splintered the vote gets — and the more likely a runoff becomes. To the chagrin of incumbents on both sides of the aisle, Texas’ primaries are crowded.In open-seat races, where the incumbent is either not running for re-election or an entirely new seat was drawn in redistricting, crowded primaries are expected and pretty uneventful. We’re watching those to see who qualifies for the higher-stakes runoff.But for incumbents and high-profile candidates, the question on Tuesday will be who avoids a runoff and by how much. For instance, in the governor’s race, how well Gov. Greg Abbott fares in his Republican primary will be a barometer of his strength before the general election. (For Beto O’Rourke, on the Democratic side, there’s little doubt he’ll sail to the nomination on Tuesday.)The most famous names might be found in the major statewide races, yet the most consequential results could come from House races. To be sure, Texas isn’t the political hot spot for House races that it was in 2020 — redistricting left the state with only one truly competitive district in the general election. But with Democrats’ majority relying on just a handful of seats, there’s no room for error.Here’s what we’ll be watching, with one warning: always be prepared for surprises. Abbott’s vindication?Gov. Greg Abbott is being challenged in the Texas Republican primary by Don Huffines, a former state senator, and Allen West, a former state party chairman.Meridith Kohut for The New York TimesRepublicans who have declared themselves Trump’s most loyal supporters have been lining up to take on Abbott — though Abbott hasn’t allowed them much room. He’s spent the last year trying to prove his pro-Trump bona fides. His efforts earned him Trump’s endorsement, though his challengers haven’t walked away quietly.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.Public polling is limited, but it seems pretty clear all the same that Abbott is the favorite, even if he isn’t guaranteed to avoid a runoff. He hit the 60 percent mark in two recent polls, with his Republican opponents — Don Huffines, a former state senator, and Allen West, a former state party chairman — floundering in the teens or single digits.Abbott’s margin of victory, or whether he avoids a runoff and gets to start the general election early, could signal the strength of his incumbency before he faces his likely Democratic opponent, O’Rourke.Beto’s second chanceThere’s little doubt that Beto O’Rourke will sail to the Democratic nomination for Texas governor on Tuesday.Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesO’Rourke, the former congressman, is likely to win the Democratic nomination outright. He won’t be the only name on the ballot, but he’s the only candidate who is a household name. The latest batch of polling shows him leading by more than 60 percentage points.As the general election begins, the question will be what O’Rourke has learned since his last campaign. He lost a statewide race in Texas in 2018, when Democrats enjoyed a favorable national environment. That environment will likely be tougher this time around, and he may have jeopardized some of his above-the-party-fray credentials by running for president in 2020. However, he’s now an experienced candidate who has the benefit of having built a campaign organization behind him, something he didn’t have in 2018.The other big namesSome of the most prominent Republican names are all clustered in a single race. As J. David Goodman explained over the weekend, Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing a challenge from Republicans including Representative Louie Gohmert; Eva Guzman, a former Texas Supreme Court justice; and George P. Bush, the grandson of George H.W. Bush.Like Abbott, Paxton has Trump’s endorsement. Unlike Abbott, Paxton isn’t polling far above and beyond his Republican challengers. This race is likely to go to a runoff.A Democratic challenger in the HouseJessica Cisneros, who is backed by progressives, is waging a rematch against Henry Cuellar, the longtime Democratic congressman.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York TimesJessica Cisneros’ primary challenge to Representative Henry Cuellar might be the most consequential race of the night. We’re just not sure what the consequences will be.Cisneros, who is backed by progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is waging a rematch against Cuellar, a Democrat who has opposed abortion rights, after she fell narrowly short in the 2020 primary runoff. But, as Edgar Sandoval reported, conservative Democrats might have more luck in some parts of South Texas.When the F.B.I. raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office earlier this year, however, the political calculus shifted. The target of the F.B.I. investigation remains unclear, and national Republican groups are watching to see whether there’s a window for whoever emerges from the G.O.P. primary.That doesn’t necessarily mean that Cisneros would be more likely to hold the seat for Democrats than Cuellar. If national abortion rights organizations get involved in the race, they could provoke Republicans to play more aggressively in the district.“It doesn’t help in trying to actually change the political dynamic in Texas, when you have national organizations come in, brand themselves as liberal, wave blue flags, and say we’re going to turn stuff blue and flip it,” said Matt Angle, the founder of the Lone Star Project, which provides opposition research and other support to Democratic candidates in Texas.There’s a third Democrat on the ballot for the race, so it’s possible that neither Cuellar nor Cisneros clears Tuesday’s primary. If the race goes to a primary runoff, it would leave another few months for the Cisneros-Cuellar primary to unfold — and more time to see what happens with the F.B.I. investigation.The lone competitive House seatThere’s only one district that’s built to be truly competitive in 2022. But we probably won’t know who’s running in it until the May runoff.The incumbent in the 15th Congressional District in South Texas would have been Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a Democrat. However, he instead chose to run in a seat that was drawn to be slightly safer for Democrats after redistricting, leaving his current seat open.Trump narrowly carried the newly drawn 15th District in 2020. Republicans expect Monica De La Cruz to be their nominee, even if she doesn’t win outright on Tuesday. The Democratic race is more scattered, with multiple credible candidates, and will likely go to a runoff.There is one other House race that could be competitive come November: the 28th District, another South Texas seat. But while the 15th District was drawn to be competitive, the 28th was drawn to favor Democrats. However, if Democrats put forth a nominee who’s either plagued by scandal or ideologically out of step with the district, Republicans, boosted by a favorable national environment, might be able to seize the opportunity.What to read tonightJennifer Medina reports from Brownsville, Texas, where the politics of immigration is driving many Hispanic voters into the Republican Party.Redistricting is altering national politics in profound ways, as Shane Goldmacher describes in a look at Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Republican whose suburban Houston district grew less competitive after the Legislature drew new maps.The last two weeks have been a monumental time in Biden’s presidency. Our colleagues on the White House team reconstructed a chaotic past few days within an administration preparing for a State of the Union address while handling the crisis in Ukraine.briefing bookProtesters held the Ukrainian flag as they rallied Sunday in Washington, D.C., against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Shuran Huang for The New York TimesThe latest in UkraineFighting is still raging in Ukraine, despite diplomatic efforts to arrange a cease-fire. Here are the latest developments:The U.S. Treasury Department froze assets of the Russian central bank and imposed sanctions on a sovereign wealth fund that is run by a close ally of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. The value of Russia’s currency fell by as much as 25 percent within hours.Belarus hosted face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials, but they proved inconclusive, as did a phone call between Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, and Putin.Satellite photos showed a column of Russian forces bearing down on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. In Kharkiv, a city in the northeast of the country, videos showed the results of indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilians.Thanks for reading. We’ll see you tomorrow.— Blake & LeahWere you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More
Former President Donald J. Trump’s brand of populism has been widely viewed as an appeal to white voters. But similar grievances have resonated in the Rio Grande Valley in a profound way.BROWNSVILLE, Texas — Mayra Flores, the daughter of Mexican immigrants, has done much of her campaigning in South Texas in Spanish. She has heard one phrase repeatedly from voters as she and other candidates try to become the first Republicans to represent the Rio Grande Valley in Congress.¿Y nosotros?And what about us?“I hear every day that they’re tired — they feel that there is so much attention and help being given to the immigrants,” Ms. Flores said. “The attention’s on all these illegal immigrants, and not on them.”Grievance politics, it turns out, translates.Donald J. Trump’s brand of populism has been widely viewed as an appeal to white voters: Republicans around the country continue to exploit the fear that the left is attacking religious values and wants to replace traditional white American culture with nonwhite multiculturalism. But similar grievances have resonated in the Rio Grande Valley in a profound way, driving the Republican Party’s successes in a Democratic stronghold where Hispanics make up more than 90 percent of the population.The difference is in the type of culture believed to be under assault. Democrats are destroying a Latino culture built around God, family and patriotism, dozens of Hispanic voters and candidates in South Texas said in interviews. The Trump-era anti-immigrant rhetoric of being tough on the border and building the wall has not repelled these voters from the Republican Party or struck them as anti-Hispanic bigotry. Instead, it has drawn them in.“Our parents came in a certain way — they came in and worked, they became citizens and didn’t ask for anything,” said Ramiro Gonzalez Jr., a 48-year-old rancher from Raymondville, on the northern edge of the Rio Grande Valley. “We were raised hard-core Democrats, but today Democrats want to give everything away.”Ramiro Gonzalez Jr., a rancher in Raymondville, is among Latino conservatives who are reshaping South Texas politics.Jason Garza for The New York TimesFor years, the Republican primary in the Rio Grande Valley was an afterthought, a sleepy election overshadowed by a Democratic primary that grabbed all the attention and candidates. But this year, in the run-up to the Texas primary election on Tuesday, there has been a flurry of Republican rallies, door-knocking and events, including at the Hispanic community center that the Republican National Committee opened in McAllen four months ago.The Republican gains run far deeper than Mr. Trump and, in some ways, predate him, interviews with Hispanic voters and candidates showed. Republican candidates are building on a decades-long history of economic, religious and cultural sentiment that has veered toward conservatives. George W. Bush performed even better in his 2004 re-election campaign in the region than Mr. Trump did in 2020. Many of those who voted for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for president and then flipped for Mr. Trump had previously backed Mr. Bush.For the moment, Republicans in the Rio Grande Valley remain a minority. Last year, a Republican was elected mayor of McAllen, the Valley’s second-most populous city, and a Democratic state lawmaker in Rio Grande City switched to the Republican Party, both of whom earned praise from the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott. But Democrats still dominate the vast majority of local elected offices in the Valley.A sign outside the Republican National Committee’s Hispanic community center in McAllen.Jason Garza for The New York Times“It’s still relatively insignificant, when you look at Democrat versus Republican overall,” said Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a South Texas Democrat who narrowly won his 2020 re-election. He is now running in a redrawn neighboring district and is likely to face Ms. Flores as his Republican opponent in November. Though he said he was confident voters would “come home” to Democrats this fall, Mr. Gonzalez criticized the party for not doing more to focus on the region.A Guide to the Texas PrimaryThe 2022 midterm elections begin with the state’s primary on March 1.Governor’s Race: Gov. Greg Abbott’s rightward shift will face a test in November. His likely challenger, Beto O’Rourke, is haunted by his 2020 presidential bid.Attorney General’s Race: Whether Ken Paxton can survive the G.O.P. primary may be the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s continued power over voters.A Changing Landscape: Issues like abortion and immigration are driving Hispanic voters in Democratic strongholds to switch parties and prompting liberal candidates to shift tactics.A Deepening Divide: Competitive districts are being systemically erased across the country. Texas is an especially extreme example.New Voting Law: Officials have rejected thousands of absentee ballots based on new requirements, an alarming jump ahead of the primary.“So far I see no action,” Mr. Gonzalez said. “I’ve had to rely on myself, not on the national party coming down here to save us, so in that respect, it’s sad.”For decades, conventional wisdom held that the more Hispanic voters showed up to the polls, the more precarious the political future would be for Republicans. But the inverse has lately been reshaping South Texas politics: As tens of thousands of new voters have gone to the polls, Republicans have gained more than Democrats. In Hidalgo County, which includes McAllen, Mr. Trump received nearly twice as many votes in 2020 as he did four years earlier.Mr. Trump’s performance in these border counties was one of the big surprises of 2020, rattling Democrats who had assumed that Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric would alienate Latinos. In this year’s midterm elections, South Texas is the setting for the only competitive House race in the state, and both parties now consider Hispanic voters across the country a potentially decisive swing vote.At a dinner for Ms. Flores’ campaign at Don Chucho Tacos y Tequilas in the border city of Brownsville, her supporters began with a prayer and the pledge of allegiance to the Texas flag. They wore wide-brimmed cowboy hats and red MAGA caps. They applauded when the mariachis took the stage — and when Ms. Flores introduced her husband, an off-duty Border Patrol agent.“We’ve been voting California values, Austin values, but not South Texas values,” Ms. Flores told the crowd. She added, speaking the Spanglish so prevalent in the region, “Spread the chisme. Somos Americanos.” Spread the word. We are Americans.“This,” she continued, “is our country.”“I want to bring God back into politics,” said Luis Cabrera, the pastor of City Church in Harlingen, Texas.Jason Garza for The New York Times‘We feel under attack’Pastor Luis Cabrera, 44, remembers the fear in his parents’ eyes when they fled Nicaragua in 1979, in the midst of the Sandinista revolution.His father, a lawyer for the ousted president, received death threats and after obtaining visas from the American embassy there, the family left nearly all they had behind, flying with $10,000 in cash on a flight to Washington, D.C. Eventually, Mr. Cabrera’s father found work as an immigration paralegal in Houston, and then took the family to the Rio Grande Valley.Now, Mr. Cabrera runs City Church, a small congregation in a former warehouse in the border city of Harlingen. He estimates that his church is 96 percent Hispanic, and 100 percent Republican.“The people coming now seem to be less willing to work and are more dangerous compared to how it used to be,” Mr. Cabrera said. “I’m not saying all of them, but trust me, there’s a lot of people who are crossing this border and they don’t care about this country. They want to just commit crime. They want to just come make money the wrong way. They don’t want the American dream.”The Rio Grande Valley lies at the southeast corner of the U.S.-Mexico border, an amalgam of dozens of small cities and towns across four counties, a mix of recently developed strip malls and centuries-old ranch land. The Stars and Stripes and other flags fly from the back of large pickup trucks and flagpoles installed on front yards. The vast majority of the Valley’s nearly 1.4 million residents speak Spanish and have ties to Mexico. Pockets of deep poverty remain, and residents have long viewed Border Patrol and other law enforcement jobs as a reliable path to the middle class. For all the talk by Republicans of border chaos and of dangerous migrants, crime in McAllen is at a historic low.Mr. Cabrera sells T-shirts at the entrance of his church.Jason Garza for The New York TimesThe gulf between the undocumented Central American migrants crossing the border and the Latino residents of the Valley is deep and wide.Many residents are Mexican Americans who have lived in the region for four or five generations, or proudly proclaim their parents and grandparents came to the United States legally. They know both Border Patrol agents and undocumented Mexican immigrants who have lived and worked in border cities for years. Those who are Republicans say they do not see their views on immigration as hypocritical or anti-Hispanic. Instead, they see themselves as a bulwark for law and order. A few thousand Border Patrol agents live and work in the region, many of them Hispanic, adding to a pro-law enforcement ethos that shows up in churches, schools and local politics.“We’re in a war — a war of ideas,” said Jessica Martinez, 33, a Brownsville stay-at-home mother who said she had never voted until she cast a ballot for Mr. Trump in 2020, after she grew frustrated with the relentless outrage against him from liberals. “That’s how we as Christians see it. We feel under attack.”In Harlingen, Mr. Cabrera turned the entrance of the church into a retail space. He displays and sells T-shirts reading Make America Godly Again and Make America Repent. For years, he said, he avoided speaking about politics from the pulpit. But in the last year he has hosted several Republican leaders at the church, including Mr. Abbott.“I want to bring God back into politics,” Mr. Cabrera said. “And so that’s what I’m doing.”‘I worry about our values’Joe Cadriel, a 57-year-old veteran of the gulf war’s Desert Storm and a retired social worker, has rarely placed campaign advertisements on his front lawn. But he made an exception for Ms. Flores, the Brownsville Republican running for Congress.Mr. Cadriel and his wife, Diana, a retired educator, both voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and then cast their ballots for Mr. Trump four years later, convinced that he would best protect the southern border, a mere 10 miles from their Weslaco home.The couple grew up in the Rio Grande Valley as children of conservative Democrats, and they harbored a proud independent streak. Mr. Cadriel has been infuriated by illegal immigration for as long as he can remember — he said he once left a job because he felt too angry seeing food stamps and other benefits going to children of unauthorized immigrants.“I’m OK with people coming in saying I’m going to do something productive,” Mr. Cadriel said. “But that wasn’t what was happening. You’d have these people claiming they needed food stamps for their children, but their children were babies, so who do you think was benefiting from it? They were just trying to take advantage.”Joe and Diana Cadriel of Weslaco, Texas, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Donald Trump in 2020.Jason Garza for The New York TimesThe Cadriels equate walking away from the Democratic Party with getting an education, not from college courses or books, but from conservative media and scripture. A retired educator and churchgoing Catholic, Ms. Cadriel, 57, slowly began to feel that her family’s traditional values were under attack. She stopped watching Good Morning America and The View in favor of Fox News.“I worry about where we’re headed, about what will and won’t be allowed,” she said. “I worry about our values.”Republican candidates like Ms. Flores hope to capitalize on the Cadriels and other former Democrats.Ms. Flores’ parents worked as migrant farmworkers, moving each year to pick cotton in West Texas. Though her parents were Democrats, Ms. Flores said she was raised with “conservative values” and was drawn to Republicans because of her anti-abortion views. Soon after graduating from South Texas College in 2019, she became involved with the Hidalgo County Republican Party, volunteering as the Hispanic outreach chair while she worked as a respiratory therapist.Ms. Flores’ campaign signs do not mention policy or party, but instead highlight three words: “Dios, familia, patria.” God, family, country. More
