Midterm Elections (2022)

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      Democrats Transfer Money to Help Malinowski in New Jersey House Race

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      The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is transferring a fresh infusion of cash to the campaign of Representative Tom Malinowski, he confirmed in a text message.Committee officials who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the committee’s strategy described the money only as a six-figure investment, but Mr. Malinowski, the most vulnerable Democrat in New Jersey’s congressional delegation, said he welcomed the help.The transfer would allow Mr. Malinowski to purchase television advertising at cheaper rates than the group could secure on its own. It comes after a New Jersey political tipsheet claimed that the committee had left Mr. Malinowski to “largely fend for himself” — which he said was false. The committee previously assisted Mr. Malinowski with $95,000 worth of advertising.Mr. Malinowski, who was first elected in 2018 and won re-election two years later by a few thousand votes, is in a tight rematch against Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of a popular former Republican governor. His district, an upscale suburban area of the state, grew slightly more friendly to Republicans after New Jersey Democrats redrew the state’s congressional map this year.Mr. Kean’s allies have hammered Mr. Malinowski with ads citing an investigation by the House Ethics Committee into claims that he failed to properly disclose hundreds of thousands of dollars in stock trades, an error he has taken responsibility for and said resulted from carelessness.A former State Department official and human rights expert, Mr. Malinowski is one of the more conservative House Democrats. He has raised more than $7.5 million in this campaign cycle, according to federal campaign finance data, but has been heavily outspent overall.The House Majority PAC, a group close to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has supported Mr. Malinowski with nearly $1.5 million in television advertising, while its Republican counterpart and other allied groups have spent at least $10 million so far, according to AdImpact.In a text message, Mr. Malinowski acknowledged that the committee’s transfer was “not huge,” but said that with the PAC’s help and “my own solid fund-raising, we’re holding our own.” More

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      Liz Cheney’s PAC to Run Ad Against Lake and Finchem, Both Republicans, in Arizona

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      A leadership PAC sponsored by Representative Liz Cheney, Republican of Wyoming, announced on Friday a $500,000 media buy in Arizona, where it will air a television spot urging voters to reject Kari Lake, the Republican running for governor, and Mark Finchem, the party’s nominee for secretary of state.“I don’t know that I’ve ever voted for a Democrat, but if I lived in Arizona, I absolutely would,” Ms. Cheney says in the ad. “If you care about the survival of our republic, you cannot give people power who will not honor elections.”Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem have both run campaigns amplifying former President Donald J. Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.Ms. Cheney, vice chair of the panel investigating Mr. Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, lost her August primary in a landslide to Harriet Hageman, a Trump-backed challenger. While her future political plans remain vague, for now, she has said she plans to focus her efforts on blocking Mr. Trump from returning to power.Ms. Cheney has previously singled out Ms. Lake as an election denier whom she planned to campaign against. “I’m going to do everything I can to make sure Kari Lake is not elected,” Ms. Cheney said at the Texas Tribune Festival last month.The move is in line with Ms. Cheney’s efforts to keep election deniers out of office.She also endorsed Representative Elissa Slotkin, Democrat of Michigan, in a competitive race against Tom Barrett, a Republican state senator and 2020 election denier who has refused to say whether he would respect the results of the 2022 midterm elections.Ms. Cheney, who is arguably the most vocal critic of Mr. Trump in the Republican Party, has fielded dozens of endorsement requests from Democratic candidates, but the nod to Ms. Slotkin is her first of the midterm cycle. The race in Michigan’s seventh district is considered a tossup and is one of the Republican Party’s top targets as it seeks to win back the majority in the House.“I’m proud to endorse Elissa Slotkin,” Ms. Cheney, who served with Ms. Slotkin on the Armed Services Committee, said in a statement on Thursday. Ms. Slotkin also served in the Bush administration when Ms. Cheney worked at the State Department.“While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress,” Ms. Cheney said, encouraging Republicans and independents, as well as Democrats, to support her.Ms. Cheney is scheduled to campaign with Ms. Slotkin in Michigan on Nov. 1 at an event billed as an “evening for patriotism and bipartisanship.” More

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      How Talk Radio Unites Ron Johnson and His Wisconsin Voters

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      MILWAUKEE — Other senators spend countless hours promoting their political messages and personal brands on cable news and social media.Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin simply calls up a receptive talk radio host — and then another, and then another.Since the beginning of this year, Mr. Johnson has made at least 325 appearances on talk radio shows, including 186 hits in Wisconsin. In the Senate, he has spent about four and a half hours speaking in committees and floor speeches. On the radio, listening to all of his appearances would take more than four full days.It is a staggering investment of time by a United States senator. And it is paying off.Long thought to be this year’s most endangered Republican in the chamber because of his low approval ratings, Mr. Johnson has opened up a lead in the polls over his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Democrats would dearly love for Mr. Barnes to win, both because Senate control could hang on the race and because Mr. Johnson, one of the nation’s leading purveyors of misinformation, has been the bane of Wisconsin liberals’ existence for a dozen years.But they are finding that it’s not so easy to oust Mr. Johnson, an analog creature in the modern digital world, whose political resilience stems in great part from an omnipresence on the radio airwaves that has made him nearly as much a fixture of Wisconsin as cheese curds, beer and the Green Bay Packers.Mr. Johnson, 67, has refined an old-school playbook of communicating with Republican base voters who listen to hours of conservative talk radio a week, a function of the medium’s unique power in Wisconsin’s media environment and of his own political upbringing as a figure endorsed and promoted by the state’s leading right-wing talkers.Radio-bred reality is quick to spread through Republican politics in Wisconsin.Taylor Glascock for The New York Times“Were it not for talk radio, I don’t think conservatism would have a chance,” Mr. Johnson said.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesThe time on the radio serves as a direct line to Mr. Johnson’s political base. Hosts who share his worldview rarely challenge him on conservative talking points about elections, public health or his past statements. Listening on the other end is a large, devoted audience that has little trust in the state’s shrinking newspapers and television stations.“Talk radio is crucial to the conservative movement, because we don’t have the mainstream media on our side,” Mr. Johnson said in a recent interview. “Were it not for talk radio, I don’t think conservatism would have a chance. We’d be overwhelmed by the liberal media.”That radio-bred reality is quick to spread through Republican politics here. Republican elected officials on the receiving end of anger on talk radio will hear about it quickly — and most soon find a way back into the hosts’ good graces.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.“You can pick any issue you want, but whatever the hot topic on talk radio is, you’ll hear it come up,” said Mayor Rohn Bishop of Waupun, Wis., who until last year was the chairman of the Republican Party in Fond du Lac County.Listening to Mr. Johnson on Wisconsin’s radio airwaves can serve as a tour into a universe in which the state’s Democrats are constantly scheming to steal elections; the F.B.I. is out to get the senator; and Mr. Barnes, his Democratic opponent, is an anti-American zealot who “thinks our national parks are racist” — an accusation Mr. Johnson made more than a dozen times in September alone.Other conspiracy theories and misinformation abound. Since the beginning of September, he has claimed the F.B.I. tried to rig the 2016 election for Hillary Clinton, then “not only corrupted the 2020 election, they’re corrupting the 2022 election.” He has promoted hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid and has suggested that Democrats planned the Capitol riot.Mr. Johnson on Capitol Hill this year with Ted Cruz, a far more digitally inclined Republican senator.Michael A. McCoy for The New York TimesIn the interview, Mr. Johnson said he made no apologies for any of his statements that have departed from the truth.“Everything I’ve been saying is proven out to be true,” he said. “There’s not one thing that I’ve said about Covid that wasn’t true, including gargling.”The senator was referring to a comment he made at a town-hall meeting in December suggesting that a “standard gargle, mouthwash, has been proven to kill the coronavirus.” Afterward, he defended his stance on a tour of local radio shows. In the recent interview with The New York Times, Mr. Johnson offered to provide evidence that he was right. So far, he has not done so..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Wisconsin Democrats long ago decided not to make Mr. Johnson’s false assertions the focus of their campaign to unseat him. In part, that’s because he has been making them for so long that they have become part of the firmament of the state’s politics.“In a rural state, people are listening to this,” said Representative Mark Pocan, a Democrat from Madison who has spent years sparring with Mr. Johnson. “Those no longer become viewpoints. They become facts and they become repeated facts and they’re part of allegedly what’s reality here.”The shows have attracted a legion of loyal listeners across Wisconsin, though the public Nielsen radio station ratings do not report how many people are tuned in at specific times. Mr. Johnson appears on shows throughout the state, from the 50,000-watt station in Milwaukee’s 1.5-million listener market to stations with tiny signals in Wausau and programs syndicated on public radio stations across Wisconsin.Ryan Seaman, 31, who works in construction, said he was a frequent caller to conservative talk radio shows in Milwaukee, where he lives.“They try to offer perspective on both sides without really giving too much of their input,” Mr. Seaman said. “It’s not like they’re trying to force something down on you. That’s how I think the news should be. It should be fair, but accurate about what’s going on.”Shawn Kelly, a Republican retiree from Fond du Lac who in 2013 was appointed as his county’s register of deeds by Gov. Scott Walker, said what he heard on local talk radio was often “the exact opposite” from what he saw on television or read in the newspapers.“I don’t think there is a middle-of-the-road news organization around here,” Mr. Kelly said.Jerry Bader was a conservative talk show host who refused to support Donald J. Trump. Now, he is the minister of a church that serves Green Bay’s poor and homeless.Taylor Glascock for The New York Times“I wasn’t prepared for what happened to the conservative landscape,” Mr. Bader said.Taylor Glascock for The New York TimesMr. Johnson’s relationship with Wisconsin’s conservative talk radio hosts dates to the dawn of his political career.In early 2010, when he was a plastics executive unknown in Wisconsin politics, he gave a speech at a Tea Party rally. An attendee soon helped introduce him to Charlie Sykes, then the most powerful conservative talk radio host in the state.“I said, ‘Well, how would you describe yourself?’” Mr. Sykes said. “Either that day or the next day, he sent me a picture of his bedside table, which was stacked up with Wall Street Journals. His point was, ‘I’m a Wall Street Journal editorial page conservative.’”Mr. Sykes became the single biggest promoter of Mr. Johnson’s 2010 campaign for Senate. He read parts of Mr. Johnson’s speech during his show the next week, and Mr. Johnson sent a recording in which Mr. Sykes praised him to the chairs of the Republican Party in each of the state’s 72 counties.Not long after, Mr. Johnson won the endorsement of the Republican Party of Wisconsin at its annual convention — a coup for someone with just a few weeks of political experience.Mr. Johnson, right, in 2018. His rise to prominence began eight years earlier, when, as a plastics executive unknown in Wisconsin politics, he gave a speech at a Tea Party rally. Erin Schaff for The New York TimesMr. Sykes never stopped promoting Mr. Johnson’s candidacy, and Republican voters followed. After Mr. Johnson won and took office, the two had a standing off-air call for 40 minutes each week in which the senator sought feedback on how he was doing and the mood of his political base.In a 2011 interview with Peggy Noonan of The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Johnson said Mr. Sykes’s promotion was “the reason I’m a U.S. senator.”Conservative talk radio hosts in Wisconsin often move as a bloc, and Mr. Johnson has moved with them. In the 2016 presidential primary, all of the state’s major radio hosts — and all but one of the Republicans in the State Legislature — opposed Donald J. Trump’s candidacy.But once Mr. Trump was the nominee, the Republican base quickly rallied behind him, and so did Mr. Johnson. The radio show hosts who didn’t would soon learn the consequences. Mr. Sykes, who once lectured Mr. Trump on air about civility, announced before Mr. Trump won the general election that he was leaving his show.In Green Bay, Jerry Bader spoke with Mr. Johnson a few times a month on a radio show he hosted for 14 years that, he said, was “about everything from a conservative worldview.”In a recent interview, Mr. Bader said he couldn’t recall ever disagreeing with Mr. Johnson on the air — even though Mr. Bader served as the M.C. at a rally for Senator Ted Cruz during the 2016 primary and steadfastly opposed Mr. Trump even after the general election.Mr. Bader said his ratings dipped after Mr. Trump took office. Callers to the show were “very vehement” in their anger at him. When he was eventually fired in 2018, he said, the station’s management told him it was because he wouldn’t support Mr. Trump. A number of the Republican officials who had been regulars on his show called to offer condolences, but Mr. Bader said he never heard again from Mr. Johnson.“I wasn’t prepared for what happened to the conservative landscape,” said Mr. Bader, who is now the minister of a Green Bay church that serves the city’s poor and homeless. These days, he prefers to ignore politics.Mr. Bader’s time slot soon went to Joe Giganti, a pro-Trump host. Mr. Johnson is a regular guest, appearing on the show 18 times this year. In an interview, Mr. Giganti said that not only had he never disagreed with Mr. Johnson on the air, but that he also shared his skepticism on issues including Covid vaccines, the F.B.I.’s conduct and Wisconsin’s system of voting.Mr. Giganti’s show has been a success thanks in part to Mr. Johnson, who the host says helps drive ratings higher. He is now syndicated in two other Wisconsin markets and five more across the country — all places where he promulgates Mr. Johnson’s false theories.“There are,” Mr. Giganti said, “plenty of unanswered questions from the 2020 election.” More

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      These Political Scientists Surveyed 500,000 Voters. Here Are Their Unnerving Conclusions.

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      How does the popularity of a president’s policies impact his or her party’s electoral chances? Why have Latinos — and other voters of color — swung toward the Republican Party in recent years? How does the state of the economy influence how people vote, and which economic metrics in particular matter most?We can’t answer those questions yet for 2022. But we can look at previous elections for insights into how things could play out.[You can listen to this episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]John Sides and Lynn Vavreck — political scientists at Vanderbilt and U.C.L.A., respectively — have routinely written some of the most comprehensive analyses of American presidential contests. Their new book, “The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy” — written with Chris Tausanovitch — is no exception. The book’s findings are built on top of numerous layers of data and analysis, including a massive survey project that involved interviewing around 500,000 Americans between July 2019 and January 2021. We discuss the core questions of 2020: How did Donald Trump come so close to winning? Why did Latinos swing toward Republicans? What role did Black Lives Matter protests have on the outcome? How did the strange Covid economy of 2020 affect the election results? And of course, what does all of this portend for the midterm elections in November?You can listen to our whole conversation by following “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you get your podcasts. View a list of book recommendations from our guests here.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)Becky Hale and Aaron Salcide“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski. More

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      Elise Stefanik Believes She Can Turn New York Into a Republican State

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      AMSTERDAM, N.Y. — The event, hard by the Mohawk River, was a meet-and-greet opportunity for some of the Republican Party’s most notable candidates in New York. But Representative Elise Stefanik’s focus clearly extended far beyond her re-election bid.“We are seeing the results of one-party Democrat rule both in Albany and in Washington, and it has created crisis, after crisis, after crisis,” Ms. Stefanik said, with her attacks on the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and other Democrats drawing the biggest applause lines.“The bad ideas that start in Albany, often times they percolate to Washington,” she added.Ms. Stefanik, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is at the forefront of a push for her party to regain control of Congress, and she believes that New York — perennially a Democratic state — can lead the way. She predicts that Republicans will win 15 of the state’s 26 House seats.And her efforts in New York — appearing at fund-raisers and news conferences across the state — are predicated on a message that New York’s Rockefeller-era Republicanism, with moderate positions on social issues girded by fiscal and budgetary austerity, is over.“America First is here to stay,” said Ms. Stefanik, 38, adding, “and parties are determined not by the political leaders, they’re determined by the people.”Indeed, of the eight Republican members of the state’s current congressional delegation, only one, Representative John Katko of central New York, is generally considered a consistent moderate, and he is retiring, a decision that the former president greeted with joy.“Great news,” former President Donald J. Trump said after Mr. Katko announced he would not run in 2022. “Another one bites the dust.”Veterans of the party — which hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades — say the move away from Rockefeller Republicanism is a part of larger shift, as moderate Republicans from urban areas moved away and the party’s faithful increasingly began to be found in more conservative, rural areas.Ms. Stefanik drew applause as she criticized Nancy Pelosi at a recent political event in Amsterdam, N.Y.Cindy Schultz for The New York Times“A lot of the Republican base, what was part of that movement, has left the state,” said the former congressman Tom Reed, a Republican who served as chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and who resigned last spring from a district encompassing the state’s Southern Tier. “They are just not there anymore.”Others were even more blunt about the status of the Rockefeller model.“That’s over,” said Al D’Amato, the former Republican senator from New York. “That’s over.”The shift in the Republican Party echoes the arc of Ms. Stefanik’s political career.A Harvard-educated striver from upstate New York, Ms. Stefanik was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress in 2014, running as a moderate in a district that had previously been represented by Representative Bill Owens, a centrist Democrat.She rose fast in the ranks, banking right with the election of Mr. Trump as president in 2016 and quickly earning his approbation after she staunchly defended him during his first impeachment hearing.By May 2021, she had effectively deposed Representative Liz Cheney to become chair of the House Republican Conference, making her the third-highest ranking Republican in that chamber. She voted against certifying the vote confirming President Biden’s victory and now describes herself as “Ultra MAGA” and “proud of it.”If, as is expected, Ms. Stefanik wins a fifth term next month, she will be the most senior member of the state’s Republican delegation. She is also the first New Yorker to hold a position of leadership in the Republican Party since Representative Tom Reynolds, from western New York, served as chair of National Republican Congressional Committee from 2003 to 2006. And she’s proven a potent draw for donors, raising more than $10 million, often in small dollars, for congressional races and party committees nationwide, according to her campaign, while giving money to conservative candidates from Rhode Island to California.Her influence on candidates has already been seen across the state, with candidates in races in Long Island trumpeting and raising funds off Ms. Stefanik’s endorsement, including Nicholas J. LaLota, a former Navy lieutenant who is running to fill Mr. Zeldin’s seat, and George Santos, a financier who attended the Jan. 6 rally and is running in the Third Congressional District.With New York potentially being a battleground for control of the House, Ms. Stefanik’s efforts have also been backed by national party leaders: At a September fund-raiser in Washington, D.C., for Mike Lawler, who is trying to knock off Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, she appeared alongside Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader in the House..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.In early October, Ms. Stefanik also co-hosted a $1,000-a-ticket reception at the Women’s National Republican Club in Manhattan, alongside Representative Tom Emmer, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, raising more than $120,000 for seven of the state’s Republican congressional candidates.Her principal campaign committee — Elise for Congress, currently home to a $3 million bankroll — has also given steadily to other congressional candidates across New York, as well as to county committees and small-bore races like county judgeships. She also leads the Elise Victory Fund (a joint fund-raising committee), and E-Pac, which works to elect female Republicans.That sort of beneficence, as well as her outspoken appearances on conservative cable news shows and constant critiques of President Biden and Democratic policies, have positioned Ms. Stefanik to become one of New York’s few Republican kingmakers, on par with Mr. Trump and, previously, Mr. D’Amato.“She’s one of the coolest rock stars we have,” said Sally Hogan, who leads a Republican women’s organization in the Capital region which expresses “100 percent support” for Mr. Trump. “She stands up for women and for Republican values.”Ms. Stefanik, addressing farmers at a recent event in Fultonville, N.Y., has also traveled across the state to bolster the chances of her Republican colleagues.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesThe embrace of Trumpism is not complete among Republicans in New York. Representative Andrew Garbarino of Long Island, and a pair of competitive candidates in the Hudson Valley, Mr. Lawler and Marc Molinaro, have taken some centrist positions, while Representative Nicole Malliotakis of Staten Island — who is in a rematch against Max Rose, the former Democratic congressman — has expressed measured support for new gun laws and abortion rights, while remaining a staunch Trump backer.And there are Republicans who still identify with the Rockefeller era, including Mr. Katko, the soon-to-be congressional retiree who espouses a bipartisan philosophy, and was one of just 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Mr. Trump in 2021.“My bread and butter is always that the other side is not the enemy,” he said in an interview earlier this fall. “The Democrats love the country just as much as we do. They just have a different approach.”Another New York Republican who strayed from the party’s orthodoxy — Representative Chris Jacobs — is also retiring, after embracing gun control policies in the wake of a racist massacre in Buffalo, adjacent to his district in western New York.Mr. Jacobs’s decision led Ms. Stefanik to a somewhat surprising endorsement of Carl Paladino, a Buffalo-area developer and former candidate for governor with a long history of racist and sexist slurs, in a June primary to fill that seat. (Among other remarks, Mr. Paladino, who lost to Andrew Cuomo in the race for governor in 2010, commented that Hitler is “the kind of leader we need today.”)The endorsement of Mr. Paladino signaled Ms. Stefanik’s willingness to take on the status quo in the state party: Mr. Paladino’s opponent was Nick Langworthy, the party’s chairman, who was assailed by one of Ms. Stefanik’s top aides who called on him to resign. Mr. Langworthy fired back, accusing Ms. Stefanik of a “vendetta.” she did not back down, lending staff to Mr. Paladino during his primary campaign.He did not win, though he has continued to criticize Mr. Langworthy, calling him a “nightmare” for the state party in a recent interview, while lavishing praise on Ms. Stefanik.“She’s very bright. She’s got that North Country thing going for her: She’s so practical and down to earth,” Mr. Paladino said. “And yeah, she helped me and I’m very thankful for that and all the help that she sent me. I can’t say enough good things about her.”Mr. Langworthy, who is expected to be elected to Congress next month, declined to comment on Mr. Paladino or Ms. Stefanik, who, for her part, says the feud is settled. “We haven’t spoken,” she said, of Mr. Langworthy, “but we’re working great with the New York G.O.P.”Jay Jacobs, the Democratic state party chair, said that Ms. Stefanik’s predictions of a “red tsunami” were overblown. “My advice to the congresswoman is, ‘Don’t count your chickens till they hatch,’” Mr. Jacobs said. “A lot can happen in the last 10 days of any campaign, particularly because that is when most voters really begin to pay attention.”In her own race, Ms. Stefanik, who lives in Schuylerville, in Saratoga County, N.Y., is expected to prevail in the 21st Congressional District, an enormous, solidly Republican district that encompasses all or part of 15 counties in northern New York. Her opponent is Matt Castelli, a former C.I.A. officer specializing in counterterrorism, who has attacked Ms. Stefanik for the very ambition that has made her famous, claiming it has come at a cost to her constituents.“She sold out her district in order to advance her career, and that is readily transparent to voters across the political spectrum,” Mr. Castelli, 41, said. “And people are really turned off by it.”Matt Castelli, a former C.I.A. officer making his first run for office, has raised more than $1 million in the last quarter in his run against Ms. Stefanik.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesMr. Castelli, a first-time candidate and a Democrat, established a third-party line — the Moderate Party — to appeal to voters that might be put off by Ms. Stefanik’s complete embrace of Trumpism, and he has brought in more than $1 million in donations between July and September, a haul he says been helped by donors nationwide who understand “the stakes of this particular race.”“I’ve made the argument that this is the frontline in the battle for the soul of America, because there is no person on the ballot this November that probably represents this ongoing threat to our democracy, more so, than Elise Stefanik,” he said.Ms. Stefanik insists she is not a pure partisan, noting her work on northern border issues as well as on veterans affairs, as part of her role on the House Armed Services Committee. “It’s to the media’s detriment that they don’t want to focus on that,” she said.By the same token, she also reminded voters at the recent meet-and-greet in Amsterdam of her prominence in Republican circles, something she said “gives this district a seat at the highest levels.”“And I’m never going to apologize for that,” she said. “You deserve more than a backbencher.”Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting. 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      A Beginner’s Guide to the U.S. Midterm Elections

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      What’s at stake, and how does it work? Let’s start with the basics.If you are broadly aware that the upcoming midterm elections in the United States have major global implications, but you’re not up to speed on the American system of government or you’re having trouble following along, you’re in the right place.In the United States’ two-party system, control of two crucial bodies of government — the Senate and the House of Representatives — is essential for getting laws made, and it will be decided by a vote on Nov. 8. Democrats currently control both bodies and the presidency, and losing either the House or the Senate to Republicans would significantly decrease Democrats’ power in the next two years of President Biden’s term.Hundreds of elections will take place, but many candidates are considered shoo-ins and control in each body will most likely be decided by a few tight races.I need the basics: What is decided in this election?The Senate, which is now at a 50-50 deadlock but is controlled by Democrats because Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tiebreaking vote, has 100 members, with two from each of the 50 states. There are 34 seats up for grabs in November, and winners serve six-year terms.The House, with 435 voting members, is controlled by the Democrats, 222 to 213. All 435 seats are up for election, with winners serving two-year terms.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.The odds are against Democrats, but this has been a strange year.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Frustration with the president often leads to success for the other party, and Mr. Biden has low approval ratings.Currently, Republicans are favored to win the House, and the Senate is considered a tossup, according to FiveThirtyEight. Democrats enjoyed a major polling bump after the Supreme Court made an unpopular ruling in June that removed the constitutional right to abortion, giving the party hope that it could defy historical trends, but that advantage has mostly faded.Read more here on how to follow the polls and the predictions, and on the wide range of outcomes possible.Why it matters: If Democrats lose control of either body, Biden’s agenda is in trouble.In highly polarized times, it is exceedingly difficult to pass legislation unless one party controls the presidency, the House and the Senate. If Republicans win either the House or the Senate, they can prevent much of what Mr. Biden and the Democrats would hope to accomplish before 2024, the next presidential election. You could kiss any major Democratic legislation goodbye.On the other hand, if Democrats hold onto the House and increase their lead in the Senate, it could give them more ability to pass new laws. And, since senators serve six-year terms, running up a lead now would give them some breathing room in 2024, when analysts say Republicans are likely to be highly favored..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.If Republicans gain power, they could block Democratic efforts to codify abortion rights and take action on the climate, and question the aid sent to Ukraine.Historically, the party that controls the presidency — currently the Democrats — has fared poorly in the midterms. Sarah Silbiger for The New York TimesRepublicans could gain investigative and impeachment powers.If the Republicans take one or both of the chambers, they could use their new powers to create an onslaught of investigations into Democrats, as opposition parties have long done in Washington. With subpoenas and court hearings, they could highlight perceived incompetence or alleged wrongdoing on a variety of subjects, including the search of former President Donald J. Trump’s private club and residence in August, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the pandemic response.Democrats expect that Mr. Biden and his family would be among the targets, along with Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top medical adviser in the Trump and Biden administrations.Some Republicans have also pledged to impeach the president, a complicated process that could force Mr. Biden to stand trial in the Senate, as Mr. Trump did for separate impeachments in 2020 and 2021. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a Republican, said last year that there would be “enormous pressure” on a Republican House to impeach Mr. Biden “whether it’s justified or not.”An important power of the Senate: Approving court nominations.Control of the Senate includes the power to approve federal court justices, up to and including the Supreme Court. If Republicans claim control, they could use their power to block President Biden’s nominations.When President Barack Obama, a Democrat, had to work with a Republican-controlled Senate, the Republicans blocked his Supreme Court nomination in 2016. But Mr. Trump was able to speed through three Supreme Court nominations, thanks to the friendly Senate.Though not as high-profile, lower-court nominations can also be highly influential. As president, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have used same-party Senate control to appoint dozens of their preferred judges to important posts across the nation.State races could have a huge effect on issues like abortion rights and voting.A governor will be elected in 36 states. Among other powers, they could be highly influential in determining whether abortion remains legal in several states.The races for each state’s secretary of state do not usually receive much attention, but this year they have attracted major interest because of the office’s role in overseeing elections. It could become a key position if there are election disputes in the 2024 presidential election, and some of the Republicans running in key states supported Mr. Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. More

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      The Market Usually Rises After the Midterms. Will This Time Be Different?

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      If you have money in stocks during this bear market, you are probably having a rough year. The bond market has been miserable, too. There have been few bright spots for investors.Yet there is one positive portent right now: the calendar.With a surprising degree of consistency over the past 100 years or so, stocks have followed a broad pattern that coincides with presidential terms. The months leading up to midterm elections have generally been the worst in what is known as the four-year presidential election cycle. But the stock market is about to enter a sweet spot. Stocks have usually rallied in the year after the midterms — no matter which side wins.Market veterans take these patterns seriously but aren’t counting on them in an economy plagued by soaring inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession.“We’ve studied the presidential cycle carefully, and there’s something to it,” said Philip Orlando, the chief equity market strategist for Federated Hermes, a global asset manager based in Pittsburgh. “But it’s possible that this year we will need to invoke the four most dangerous words in investors’ lexicon: ‘This time is different.’”Gloom in the MarketsConsider, first, the overall pessimism in the markets.In the current climate, this comment, from Mark Hackett, the chief of investment research at Nationwide, counts as fairly upbeat. “We are now entering a stage where all signs point to a recession — assuming we aren’t already in one,” Mr. Hackett said. But, he added, “the recession may already be priced into the markets, in which case the next bull run may be faster and come earlier than many investors expect,” he said.The latest government figures show that the economy grew at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter. But the Federal Reserve says interest rates need to rise and stay high until the inflation numbers come down. The Fed’s monetary tightening is aimed at slowing the U.S. economy. Whether the consequences for working people will be mild or savage isn’t clear.In the meantime, the coronavirus pandemic festers, the death toll from Russia’s war in Ukraine mounts, interest rates are rising elsewhere around the world, global energy costs remain elevated and U.S. relations with China are fracturing. All these concerns are weighing on the markets.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.The Presidential CycleThe party of a sitting president tends to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections, and high inflation makes matters worse for incumbents. Those are key findings of Ray Fair, a Yale economist whose long-running election model relies only on economic factors and shows the Democratic Party in an uphill climb this year.His model, along with the polls, the prediction markets and many forecasters, suggests that Republicans are likely to win control of the House of Representatives. The Senate is up for grabs.The issues in this election are enormous, and the vast differences between the two political parties are well chronicled. .css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Yet, for the stock market, history suggests that the outcome of the elections may not matter much. Shocking though this may be, since 1950, the midterm elections have brought an upturn for stocks, no matter which party has won, and no matter the issues.The market has generally flagged in the months before the midterms and prospered after them. And it has often excelled in the year after the midterms, typically the best of the four-year presidential cycle.Ned Davis Research, an independent investment research firm, compared stock returns for 1948 through 2021, broken down by the four years of a standard presidential term. It used the S&P 500 and a predecessor index:12.9 percent for Year 1.6.2 percent for Year 2, the year of the midterms.16.7 percent for Year 3, the year after the midterms.7.3 percent for Year 4.The data was similar for the Dow Jones industrial average going back to 1900.But why? There is no certain answer — and it could even be a series of coincidences — though there are plenty of explanations. The one I prefer is that presidents are politicians who try to stimulate the economy — and, indirectly, bolster stocks — for maximum effect in presidential elections.Their first year in office is the best time to make politically painful moves, which often lead to weak markets by the time the midterms come around. After losses in the midterms, though, presidents try to give the economy a surge through expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, setting themselves (or their successors) up well for the election.Is This an Exception?Two powerful factors — the negative effect of a slowing economy and the beneficial influence of the midterm elections — may be in conflict, Ed Clissold, the chief U.S. strategist of Ned Davis Research, said in an interview.On the positive side for stocks, Wall Street usually responds well to gridlock — the stasis that can grip Washington when power is divided — and such a division is the consensus expectation for the midterms. But, over the last century, when bear markets have been associated with recessions, no bear market has ever ended before a recession started, Mr. Clissold has found. The last time there was a recession in the year following the midterms occurred after the 1930 elections, during the Great Depression, a terrible era for stocks and the economy.“A recession would be expected to be more important than the election cycle,” he said.Practical StepsThere are many ways of making bets on specific election outcomes, though they entail risk that I don’t favor.For example, if Democrats defy the odds and hold onto both houses of Congress, infrastructure spending will be expected to increase. Matthew J. Bartolini, the head of exchange-traded fund research at State Street Global Advisors, said, to bet that way, you might try SPDR S&P Kensho Intelligent Structures ETF. It includes “intelligent infrastructure” companies — like Badger Meter, which supplies utilities with water-metering equipment, and Stem, which provides software and engineering for green energy storage.If you want to bet on gridlock, you may assume that a split government will be bullish for the overall market. Then again, the need to raise the federal debt ceiling in 2023 could become a market crisis. Republicans have vowed to use the issue as leverage, forcing President Biden to cut federal spending. Similar maneuvering in 2011 led to the downgrading of U.S. Treasuries by Standard & Poor’s, sending tremors through global markets.Tactical bets on election or economic outcomes are unreliable. That’s why what makes sense to me, regardless of the immediate future, is long-term investing in diversified stocks and bonds using low-cost index funds that track the entire market. This approach requires a steady hand, a horizon of at least a decade and enough money to safely pay the bills.Short term, try to fortify your portfolio and build up your cash so you can handle any economic or electoral outcome.My only specific political advice in this financial column is this: Make your voice heard. However the stock market behaves, this is an important election.Vote. More

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      With Majority in Sight, Republicans Hush Talk of Impeaching Biden

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      WASHINGTON — Since the day President Biden took office, Republicans have publicly called for his impeachment, introducing more than a dozen resolutions accusing him and his top officials of high crimes and misdemeanors and running campaign ads and fund-raising appeals vowing to remove the president from office at the first opportunity.But in the homestretch of a campaign that has brought the party tantalizingly close to winning control of Congress, top Republicans are seeking to downplay the chances that they will impeach Mr. Biden, distancing themselves from a polarizing issue that could alienate voters just as polls show the midterm elections breaking their way.“I think the country doesn’t like impeachment used for political purposes at all,” Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California and the minority leader, told Punchbowl News earlier this month. While he didn’t rule out moving forward on impeachment hearings if something rose “to that occasion,” Mr. McCarthy said the country needed to “heal” and that voters wanted to “start to see the system that actually works.”Still, should he become House speaker, Mr. McCarthy would be under immense pressure from hard-right members of his rank and file — and from core Republican voters who swept his party into the majority in part based on promises to take down Mr. Biden — to impeach. The pressure will only increase if former President Donald J. Trump adds his voice to those pushing for the move.It is just one of a series of confounding issues Mr. McCarthy would face as speaker, testing his grip on power and bearing heavy consequences for Mr. Biden and the country.“There have already been impeachment articles, and I expect you’ll get more of that in the next Congress,” said former Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia. “There’s certainly going to be pressure for this to go.” Some influential Republicans have been moving aggressively toward impeachment for years, demanding punishment for Mr. Biden and his administration as well as vengeance for Democrats’ two impeachments of Mr. Trump.“Joe Biden is guilty of committing high crimes and misdemeanors,” Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, wrote in a recent fund-raising email. “And it’s time for Congress to IMPEACH, CONVICT, and REMOVE Biden from office.”Ms. Greene has already introduced five articles of impeachment against Mr. Biden, including one the day he took office, when she accused him of abusing his power while serving as vice president to benefit his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine.Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has already introduced five articles of impeachment against Mr. Biden, including one the day he took office.Brittany Greeson for The New York TimesPrivately, many Republican lawmakers and staff members concede that there does not appear to be any clear-cut case of high crimes and misdemeanors by Mr. Biden or members of his cabinet that would meet the bar for impeachment.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.But Mr. McCarthy has hardly rejected the prospect. Pressed recently on whether Mr. Biden or any officials in his administration deserved to be impeached, he said, “I don’t see it before me right now.”The response reflected an awareness that impeachment — as commonplace as it has become — is deeply unpopular. A national University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released in May showed that 66 percent of voters oppose impeachment, including 44 percent who said they strongly oppose the move.One of the concerns Democrats have expressed about electing a Republican majority in the House is that it would result in gridlock and dysfunction.“Nothing symbolizes that more than the idea of a whole-cloth impeachment of President Biden,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.Still, many Republican lawmakers and candidates likely to be elected to the House next month have been running on the issue, creating a groundswell of pressure for Mr. McCarthy, who would need their votes to become speaker.“I say if you’re the commander in chief and you invite an invasion on our southern border, if you’re the commander in chief and you leave Americans on the battlefield in Afghanistan to fall into the hands of the Taliban, what are we supposed to do with you?” Joe Kent, a Republican and 2020 election denier running for a House seat in Washington, said in a radio interview. “This is exactly why we have the ability to impeach presidents.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Representative Claudia Tenney, Republican of New York, ran a television advertisement over the summer calling for impeachment proceedings against Mr. Biden. “Whether it is Joe Biden’s dereliction of duty at the southern border or his disastrous retreat in Afghanistan, I have called for Joe Biden to answer to the American people in impeachment hearings,” Ms. Tenney says in the ad.Overall 10 House Republicans have either introduced or sponsored a total of 21 articles of impeachment against Mr. Biden and his top officials since the start of the administration.The charges include a broad variety of offenses, including a failure to enforce immigration laws, a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the extension of a moratorium on residential evictions. In addition to a dozen against Mr. Biden, there is a single article against Vice President Kamala Harris; two each against Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary; and four against Attorney General Merrick B. Garland.In a recent interview with The New York Times Magazine, Ms. Greene shrugged off Mr. McCarthy’s equivocation about impeachment.“I think people underestimate him, in thinking he wouldn’t do it,” she said, adding that a Speaker McCarthy would give her “a lot of power and a lot of leeway” in order to fulfill his job and “please the base.”Democrats, too, assume that Mr. McCarthy will not be able to resist the pressure to impeach Mr. Biden — all the more so if Mr. Trump is running for president in 2024 and wants what he sees as retribution for his two impeachments. The White House has spent months preparing for the possibility.The challenge Mr. McCarthy faces is similar to the one that Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, confronted during the 2018 midterm election campaign, when a small but vocal group of progressives was demanding Mr. Trump’s impeachment. Back then, she and other leading Democrats toiled to avoid publicly talking about the subject, wary of distractions from their message that could alienate independent voters and cost them their chance at winning control of the House.The task grew more difficult after they won; immediately after she was sworn in to Congress in 2019, for instance, Representative Rashida Tlaib, Democrat of Michigan, told supporters “we’re going to impeach” Mr. Trump, using an expletive to refer to him.Even after Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election, documented multiple instances of obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump, House Democrats were cautious about pursuing impeachment. It took nine months to get Ms. Pelosi on board.“People can be very critical of Biden on political or policy grounds,” said Norman L. Eisen, who served as a lawyer for Democrats during the first impeachment of Mr. Trump. “But those are not high crimes and misdemeanors — not even close. If it’s politically difficult to do impeachment when you have compelling proof of multiple high crimes, how much more so when there’s no evidence of constitutional crimes?”It can also be politically risky, if past impeachments are any guide. The impeachment of President Bill Clinton in 1998 backfired badly on House Republicans, making Mr. Clinton more popular than at any other time of his presidency; Democrats picked up five seats in the House that fall.President Bill Clinton’s impeachment in 1998 backfired on Republicans and lifted Mr. Clinton’s popularity.Susan Walsh/Associated PressNewt Gingrich, the House speaker who quit Congress after Mr. Clinton’s impeachment amid ethics allegations and Republican losses, said he was advising Mr. McCarthy against it.“All you have to do is say to people, ‘Kamala Harris,’” Mr. Gingrich said. “Tell me the endgame that makes any sense. As bad as Biden is, she’d be vastly worse. I don’t think the brand-new Republican majority should waste their time on a dead end.”Karl Rove, the Republican strategist and the founder of a constellation of Republican fund-raising groups, also said the party would want to focus on other priorities.“Most Republican members are going to say: ‘Really? We’re going to waste our time and energy on this when there’s no chance in hell of two-thirds of the Senate voting to convict?’” Mr. Rove said. “Instead of combating inflation, freeing up American energy, fighting the wokeness, we’re going to engage in this?”It takes a majority in the House to impeach a president, but two-thirds in the Senate to convict and remove one from office.Representative Jim Jordan, the Ohio Republican who is in line to be the chair of the Judiciary Committee if his party wins control of the House, has floated the possibility of impeachment but more recently has taken a less committal stance.“That’s a call for the committee, for Republicans on the committee, in consultation with the entire conference,” he said in a recent interview.Asked whether Republican voters were demanding impeachment, Mr. Jordan said: “Voters are demanding the facts and the truth.” More