Midterm Elections (2022)

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      The 2022 Midterms: Is Wisconsin the Future of America?

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      Listen and follow ‘The Run-Up’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Amazon MusicOn today’s episode: How a 12-year project to lock in political power in Wisconsin could culminate in this year’s midterms — and provide a glimpse into where the rest of the country is headed.ilbusca/ Getty ImagesOn today’s episodeReid J. Epstein, who covers campaigns and elections for The New York Times. He previously worked as a political reporter in Wisconsin.Background reading“Republicans have such control of the levers of power in Wisconsin that voters are almost immaterial,” Reid J. Epstein wrote in the On Politics newsletter. “It is the most gerrymandered state legislature in the country.”In April, the conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court voted to adopt new state legislative maps. The maps were partisan gerrymanders that had been drawn in secret after the 2010 elections, when Republicans took control from Democrats in both houses of the Legislature.Maps in four other states were ruled illegal gerrymanders, but they’re being used anyway. Here’s why.Credits“The Run-Up” is hosted by More

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      The Battle Between Pocketbooks and Principles

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      You are never in the voting booth alone.You bring with you your hopes and fears, your expectations and your disappointments. Your choice is made through a maze of considerations, but it hinges primarily on how the candidates — their principles and their party — line up with your worldview. Would they, if elected, represent and promote the kind of community and country you want to live in? Are they on your side, fighting for you and people like you?Often, the things that are top of mind as you consider those questions are urgent and imminent, rather than ambient and situational. Issues like the economy, for instance, will almost always take top billing, since they affect the most people most directly.Anger over abortion can also be potent, and in some races, it may determine the outcome, but it is a narrower issue. First, no person assigned male at birth will ever have to personally wrestle with a choice to receive an abortion or deal with health complications from a pregnancy that might necessitate an abortion. So, for half the electorate, the issue is a matter of principle rather than one of their own bodily autonomy.Furthermore, at the moment, abortion is still legal in most states. Yes, clinics have disappeared completely in 13 of the 50 states, according to the latest data from the Guttmacher Institute, but for millions of American women living in blue states, abortion access hasn’t changed since the Supreme Court handed down its decision in Dobbs.That is not to diminish the outrage people do and should feel about this right being taken away from them. It doesn’t diminish my personal outrage, nor does it assume that abortion rights are safe in the states that have yet to outlaw the practice.But I mention it as a way to understand something I’ve seen over and over in the electorate: Incandescent rage, however brightly it burns at the start, has a tendency to dim. People can’t maintain anger for extended periods. It tends to wear on the mind and the body, as everyday issues like gas and rent and inflation push to get back into primary consideration.I have seen repeatedly how people abandon their principles — whether they be voting rights, transgender issues, gun control, police reform, civil rights, climate change or the protection of our democracy itself — when their pocketbooks suffer. There is a core group of people who will feel singularly passionate about each of these problems, but the rest of the public adjusts itself to the outrage and the trauma, shuffling each issue back into the deck. They still care about these problems as issues in the world, but they don’t necessarily see them as urgent or imminent.In a New York Times/Siena College poll released this week, voters were asked “What do you think is the MOST important problem facing the country today?”A plurality, 26 percent, said the economy, and 18 percent said inflation or the cost of living. Just seven percent said the state of democracy, and four percent said abortion.After the Supreme Court struck down Roe, Democrats saw a measurable shift in their direction, as voters began to say that they were leaning toward the Democrats in the midterm elections. The anger among many voters was palpable; the offense was fresh. But now, that momentum has stalled, and some see a swing back toward Republicans as we get further out from the ruling and worrisome economic news retakes the headlines.I still believe that anger over abortion will be felt in the midterms. I believe that taking away such a fundamental right feels like a betrayal that must be avenged. I believe that many parents of daughters are incensed at the idea of those girls inheriting an America where they will have less say over their bodies than their mothers had.But I also know that energy attrition in the electorate is real. I know that historical trends are on the side of Republicans going into the midterms, and even a minor stalling of momentum and erosion of energy could make the already slim chance that Democrats would hold the House of Representatives an impossibly long shot.In the closing days of this campaign cycle, Republicans are driving home perennial issues: the economy and crime. Democrats are arguing big issues of policy: abortion and protecting democracy. In this battle of pocketbooks and principles, which will win out?For those with any sense of political vision and history, the policy side must take precedence. Economic issues are cyclical. They’ll always present themselves. But grand issues like bodily autonomy can define generations. And protecting democracy can define empires.What is the point of a cheaper tank of gas, if it must be had in a failed democracy that polices people’s most intimate choices about their own bodies?The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTopinion), and Instagram. More

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      With Midterms Looming, Biden Isn’t Attending Big Campaign Rallies

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      President Biden’s low profile on the campaign trail reflects a low approval rating that makes him unwelcome in some congressional districts and states at a pivotal moment before the midterms.WASHINGTON — There is nothing quite like having a president at a big, boisterous campaign rally. And Democrats in four cities — Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee and Las Vegas — will get that chance this month, in the final days of voting that will decide who controls Congress, governors’ offices and statehouses.But it won’t be President Biden. It will be former President Barack Obama.Mr. Biden has not held a campaign rally since before Labor Day, even as the future of his agenda and his own political career are at stake in the midterm elections. His low profile on the campaign trail reflects his low approval rating, and White House officials say the president has made a point of delivering speeches on the party’s accomplishments, rather than taking part in rallies sponsored by political campaigns.With less than three weeks until Election Day and polls suggesting Democratic enthusiasm is waning, Mr. Biden’s strategy is clear: He will help Democrats raise money and will continue to hopscotch the country talking about infrastructure, negotiated drug prices, student debt relief and investments in computer chip manufacturing. But his decision not to participate, so far at least, in rallies that are normally a staple of campaign season highlights how little the president can do to help his fellow Democrats, even with the megaphone of the Oval Office.It is a remarkably low-key campaign effort by a president facing what could be among the biggest rebukes of his political life: Republicans are poised to retake control of one or both houses of Congress, an outcome that would reshape politics in Washington and likely end any hope that Democrats have of making progress on abortion rights, gun control, police reform, voting rights or tax fairness.Mr. Biden is by no means holing up in Washington. In the last week, he has gone to Colorado, California and Oregon. He heads to Philadelphia on Thursday to support John Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s Democratic candidate for the Senate — but there will be no crush of voters packed into a stadium, no sea of colorful campaign signs, no presidential exhortations to “Vote! Vote! Vote!” captured by TV cameras.Instead, Mr. Biden and Mr. Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, will gather in a closed-door reception for invited guests only, the president’s brief remarks captured by a handful of reporters who will quickly be escorted out before the rest of the event. Mr. Biden will also give an official speech on infrastructure in Pittsburgh on Thursday, hours before the private reception.Mr. Biden promised to restore Roe v. Wade if Democrats retain House control and expand their Senate majority.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesMr. Biden’s plans for the final stretch of the election season are in stark contrast with those of his immediate predecessors in both parties. Former President Donald J. Trump held 26 rallies in October 2018, including nine in the final four days of the midterm elections that year. Mr. Obama held 16 campaign rallies in October 2010, even though his approval rating was about the same then — at 44 percent — as Mr. Biden’s is now.Mr. Obama’s office has announced that the former president will headline at least four major rallies in the run-up to Election Day. In Nevada, he will join Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who is trailing in the polls, and other candidates for an early vote rally on Nov. 1.Other Democrats have fanned out to amp up crowds and raise funds. Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary and onetime presidential hopeful, led a get-out-the-vote rally in Kansas on Wednesday. Senator Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont and another former presidential candidate, is embarking later this month on an eight-state blitz with at least 19 events across the nation.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.G.O.P. Gains Edge: Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with an advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, a Times/Siena poll found.Codifying Roe: President Biden pledged that the first bill he would send to Capitol Hill next year if Democrats expand their control of Congress in the midterm elections would be legislation to enshrine abortion rights into law.Florida Senate Race: In the only debate of the contest, exchanges between Senator Marco Rubio and his Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demings, got fiery at times. Here are four takeaways.Aggressive Tactics: Right-wing leaders are calling on election activists to monitor voting in the midterm elections in search of evidence to confirm unfounded theories of election fraud.Asked to name the best surrogate hitting the campaign trail for Democrats, himself aside, Mr. Sanders at first demurred and then said that Mr. Obama “certainly can and will play a very important role.”But asked specifically about whether Mr. Biden should be doing more rallies, he replied: “I don’t want to speculate on that either.”Mr. Biden’s advisers reject the idea that he is being too low-key and say they have crafted a midterm election strategy that fits his brand as a politician who tries to be above the political fray. They argue that the president and Democrats have accomplished more than his predecessors in a short period, and that it’s better to boast about those accomplishments in official venues, not highly partisan ones.When Mr. Biden delivers official speeches, they said, his successes are captured in headlines in local newspapers and TV broadcasts that benefit the Democratic candidates in the area. In recent days, Mr. Biden’s speeches have been front-page news in The Times Leader in Pennsylvania, The Columbus Dispatch, The Denver Post and elsewhere..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.“What he’s doing is showing people why it mattered that they took the time to stand in line and vote,” said Cedric Richmond, a close confidant of Mr. Biden’s and a senior adviser at the Democratic National Committee. “It’s because they voted that Ketanji Brown is on the Supreme Court. It’s because they voted that he’s lowering prescription drug costs and that we’re building roads and bridges.”Mr. Richmond conceded that Democrats will not know how effective Mr. Biden’s strategy is until after Election Day. But the president’s advisers note that Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump both suffered steep midterm losses despite robust political campaigning in 2010 and 2018.“The best way to get people excited about going to vote is to show them what he’s been able to accomplish on their behalf,” Mr. Richmond said.Not so long ago, Mr. Biden was the kind of Democrat who was welcomed in red states, swinging through more conservative places like Montana and Kentucky in 2018. In 2014, The Los Angeles Times noted that Mr. Biden, as vice president, participated in more than “114 campaign events for 66 different candidates, committees and parties” and had emerged as “a patron saint of the embattled House Democrat.”Republicans are eagerly holding rallies. Mr. Trump has crisscrossed the country for near-weekly rallies that draw thousands. Former Vice President Mike Pence has campaigned for more than 30 candidates for Congress and governor’s mansions, as well as headlining events for state and local Republican parties.Supporters of former President Donald J. Trump outside an event where Mr. Biden spoke in Irvine, Calif., last week.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesAnd Republican governors with national brands, like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, have headlined rallies and fund-raisers for fellow governors in some of the country’s most competitive races.Mr. Biden’s four-day trip to the West Coast last week was an example of a different approach.At a community college in Orange County, Calif., where Representative Katie Porter is locked in a fierce re-election fight, Mr. Biden talked about health care prices a day after attending a closed-door fund-raising reception for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.“I’m here today because I wanted to share the progress we’re making to bring down health care costs for everybody,” he told the crowd at the community college event in Irvine, using the opportunity to give credit to Ms. Porter. “Everybody respects you. And it’s a big deal, because you get a lot done.”One benefit for Democratic candidates like Ms. Porter is financial. The costs of an elaborate campaign stop involving the president, like a rally, require the party or the candidate to pick up some of the expensive tab for Mr. Biden’s travel — including Air Force One, Secret Service security and other expenses.When the president travels for an official White House event, like the one in Irvine, campaigns don’t bear the costs, even if the candidate attends the event.Mr. Biden’s advisers played down the cost savings for candidates as a reason for his approach to the midterms, calling it at best a “benefit” of his travel schedule.The president’s final push comes at an ominous time for Democrats.The most recent polls show that Republicans have an edge going into the final weeks of the election, with concern about inflation and the economy surging. In a New York Times/Siena College poll, voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, more than two to one.In Ohio, Representative Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee for Senate, has said he would not welcome Mr. Biden to his home state, preferring to keep himself as the “face of the campaign.”Representatives for Senate candidates in Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada either declined to comment or did not answer in response to questions about whether their contenders would welcome campaigning with Mr. Biden.This week, Vicki Hiatt, the chair of the Kansas Democratic Party, gushed about the arrival of Mr. Buttigieg, calling him a “very strong, energizing person” and adding that “he’s young, intelligent. He just — I think he has lots of energy.”Asked if it would be helpful for Democrats if Mr. Biden came to the state in a political capacity — he did have an official event in Kansas City, Mo., last year — Ms. Hiatt hesitated.“I don’t think he would hurt,” she said. “I don’t think there’d be any harm done. And I think that overall, there would be a great turnout.”She added that “he really is doing good work for the American people.”Michael D. Shear reported from Washington, and More

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      Biden Expands Effort to Lower Gas Prices and Secure Energy Independence

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      Depleting emergency oil reserves spurs criticism that the White House is trying to lower gas prices with midterm election politics in mind.The president rejected the notion that the move to release more oil was politically motivated by the upcoming midterm elections.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesWASHINGTON — President Biden expanded his efforts on Wednesday to blunt the pain of rising gas prices and reduce America’s exposure to global energy markets, which have become more volatile because of provocative actions by Russia and Saudi Arabia.The administration announced $2.8 billion in grants to expand domestic manufacturing of batteries for electric vehicles and the electrical grid, one day after officials said that the United States would release millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that Mr. Biden would consider additional withdrawals this winter.The moves highlight how energy security is now at the center of the Biden administration’s economic agenda, which has been derailed by soaring inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Those concerns come at a perilous political moment, with midterm elections that will determine dynamics in Washington less than three weeks away.Mr. Biden’s decision to order the release of 15 million additional barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is designed to address the immediate worry of rising gas prices, which was exacerbated further by Saudi Arabia’s recent decision, in concert with Russia, to cut oil production. In total, 180 million barrels of oil have been released since Mr. Biden authorized the use of the reserve in March.The Biden administration is prepared to dip further into its emergency supplies this winter, despite concerns that depleting the reserve could put the nation’s energy security at risk.“We’re calling it a ready and release plan,” Mr. Biden said on Wednesday. “This allows us to move quickly to prevent oil price spikes and respond to international events.”Mr. Biden has described the releases as a way to blunt the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine while domestic energy producers ramp up production. There are about 400 million barrels remaining in the stockpile, which has the capacity to hold about 700 million barrels.The Biden PresidencyWith midterm elections approaching, here’s where President Biden stands.Storyteller in Chief: President Biden has been unable to break himself of the habit of spinning embellished narratives to weave a political identity.Diplomatic Limits: OPEC’s decision to curb oil production has exposed the failure of President Biden’s fist-bump diplomacy with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.Defending Democracy: Mr. Biden’s drive to buttress democracy at home and abroad has taken on more urgency by the persistent power of China, Russia and former President Donald J. Trump.Questions About 2024: Mr. Biden has said he plans to run for a second term, but at 79, his age has become an uncomfortable issue.In remarks at the White House, Mr. Biden rebutted the notion that his administration had placed curbs on domestic oil production. Instead, he called on companies to expand production and said even if demand for oil slows in future years, they would be able to sell it back to the federal government to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil prices decline to around $70 a barrel.The president also accused oil companies of profiteering and warned them not to gouge prices as Americans are grappling with inflation.“When the cost of oil comes down, we should see the price of the gas station at the pump come down as well,” he said. “My message to the American energy companies is, you should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging.”Separately on Wednesday, the White House announced that the Energy Department is awarding $2.8 billion of grants that were created as part of the infrastructure legislation passed earlier this year..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.The money will go to 20 companies in 12 states and will be used for projects related to the production of lithium, graphite and nickel that is used in batteries that power electric vehicles. One grant recipient, Talon Nickel, said it would use the $114 million it had been awarded to help set up a processing facility for battery materials in Mercer County, North Dakota.The North Dakota facility will process ore that the company plans to mine in Minnesota, one link in the first fully domestic supply chain for battery-grade nickel that Talon is building out in partnership with Tesla.While the Biden administration has stressed the importance of building up some domestic manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries, which is now heavily reliant on China, administration officials have also acknowledged the pollution risks in permitting new mines and processing facilities in the United States.Talon’s plan to build an underground mine to extract nickel from a water-rich area of northern Minnesota drew concerns from some in the area, including Ojibwe tribes who gather wild rice nearby.Todd Malan, the company’s chief external affairs officer, said the decision to locate the processing facility at an industrial site in North Dakota, instead of near the company’s proposed mine in Minnesota, was a “direct response” to those concerns. He said the company would create a “cemented containment facility” that would neutralize and contain waste from ore processing.“We hope that this is seen as a step toward addressing their concerns while still producing the necessary materials for the U.S. electric vehicle battery supply chain,” he said.Gene Berdichevsky, the co-founder and chief executive of Sila, a maker of battery materials, said the $100 million grant the company received would allow it to expand the size of a factory in Moses Lake, Wash.Sila’s technology substitutes silicon for graphite in electric vehicle batteries, making them smaller and lighter and reducing the need for materials imported from China. Mercedes-Benz, Sila’s first announced customer, plans to deploy the technology in sport utility vehicles that will be available for sale around the middle of the decade.During a manufacturing event at the White House with recipients of the grants, Mr. Biden described the race to make batteries in the United States as part of a broader economic contest with China. He noted that 75 percent of battery manufacturing is done in China and that the country controls nearly half of the global production of the contents of batteries.“China’s battery technology is not more innovative than anyone else,” Mr. Biden said. “By undercutting U.S. manufacturers with their unfair subsidies and trade practices, China seized a significant portion of the market. Today we’re stepping up, really, to take it back.”The grant funds, which could take years to yield results, are part of the Biden administration’s longer-term strategy to transition away from cars with combustion engines and reach a goal of making half of all new vehicles sold electric by 2030.But the use of the strategic oil reserves has fueled criticism that Mr. Biden is putting the nation’s near-term energy security at risk for political purposes.“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was built for a national energy crisis — not for a Democrat election crisis,” said Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming. “Joe Biden is draining our emergency oil supply to a 40-year low.”Mr. Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said the president’s “dismal approval rating is not a justifiable reason to continue to raid our nation’s oil reserves.”On Wednesday, Mr. Biden denied that he was releasing more oil with the midterm elections in mind.“It’s not politically motivated at all,” Mr. Biden said, explaining that he has been working for months to lower gas prices. “It’s motivated to make sure that I continue to push on what I’ve been pushing.”Jack Ewing More

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      Politician, Thy Name Is Hypocrite

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      What’s worse — politicians passing a bad law or politicians passing a bad law while attempting to make it look reasonable with meaningless window dressing?You wind up in the same place, but I’ve gotta go with the jerks who pretend.Let’s take, oh, I don’t know, abortion. Sure, lawmakers who vote to ban it know they’re imposing some voters’ religious beliefs on the whole nation. But maybe they can make it look kinda fair.For instance Mark Ronchetti, who’s running for governor in New Mexico, was “strongly pro-life” until the uproar following the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe. Now, his campaign website says he’s looking for a “middle ground” that would allow abortions “in cases involving rape, incest and when a mother’s life is at risk.”That’s a very popular spin. The public’s rejection of the court’s ruling, plus the stunning vote for abortion rights in a recent statewide referendum in Kansas, has left politicians looking for some way to dodge the anti-choice label. Without, um, actually changing. “I am pro-life, and make no apologies for that. But I also understand that this is a representative democracy,” said Tim Michels, a Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, when he embraced the rape-and-incest dodge.Mehmet Oz, who’s running for Senate in Pennsylvania, used to support abortion access back when he wanted the world to call him “Dr. Oz.” But now that his day job is being a conservative Republican, he’s “100 percent pro-life.” Nevertheless, he still feels there should be an exception for cases of … rape and incest.We’ve come a long — OK, we’ve come at least a little way from the time, a decade ago, when Todd Akin, the Republican Senate candidate in Missouri, argued it was impossible for a woman to get pregnant from “legitimate rape.” And Akin did lose that race.The backtracking can get pretty creative — or desperate, depending on your perspective. In New Hampshire, Don Bolduc, who’s running for the Senate, was strongly anti-choice before he won the Republican primary. (“Killing babies is unbelievably irresponsible.”)Now, Bolduc the nominee feels a federal abortion ban “doesn’t make sense” and complains that he’s not getting the proper respect for his position. Which is that it’s a state issue. And that his opponent, Senator Maggie Hassan, should “get over it.”These days, it’s hard to sell an across-the-board rule that doesn’t take victims of forced sex into account. In Ohio recently, Senate candidate J.D. Vance tried to stick to his anti-abortion guns, but did back down a smidge when questioned about whether that 10-year-old Ohio rape victim who was taken out of state for an abortion should have been forced to have a baby.And then Vance quickly changed the subject, pointing out that the man accused of raping her was an “illegal alien.” This is an excellent reminder that in this election season there is virtually no problem that Republicans can’t find a way of connecting to the Mexican border.As sympathetic as all rape victims are, the exemption rule would not have much impact. No one knows exactly what proportion of pregnancies are caused by rape and incest, but the number “looks very, very small,” Elizabeth Nash of the Guttmacher Institute told me.And what about, say, a young woman who’s already a teenage mother, working the night shift at a fast-food outlet, whose boyfriend’s condom failed? No suggestion for any special mercy there. You can’t help thinking the big difference is a desire to punish any woman who wanted to have sex.Another popular method of dodging the abortion issue is fiddling with timelines. Blake Masters, the ever-fascinating Arizona Senate candidate, originally opposed abortion from the moment of conception. (“I think it’s demonic.”) Now his revamped website just calls for a national ban once a woman is six months pregnant.And we will stop here very, very briefly to mention that the number of six-month abortions is infinitesimal.Whenever this issue comes up, I remember my school days, which involved Catholic education from kindergarten through college. Wonderful world in many ways, but there wasn’t much concern about keeping religion out of public policy. Especially when it came to abortion. Any attempt to stop the pregnancy from the moment of conception on was murder.That’s still Catholic dogma, you know. Politicians who think they can dodge the issue with their rape-and-incest exceptions appear to ignore the fact that as the church sees it, an embryo that’s the product of a rape still counts as worthy of protection.It took me quite a while to get my head around the abortion issue and I have sympathy for people who have strong religious opposition to ending a pregnancy.Some folks who hold to that dogma try to encourage pregnant women to have their babies by providing counseling, financial support and adoption services, all of which is great as long as the woman in question isn’t being forced to join the program.But anti-abortion laws are basically an attempt to impose one group’s religion on the country as a whole. It’s flat-out unconstitutional, no matter how Justice Samuel Alito feels.And the rape-or-incest exception isn’t humanitarian. It’s a meaningless rhetorical ploy intended to allow politicians to have it both ways.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Democrats’ Feared Red October Arrives Before the Midterms

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      Many Democrats hoped it would be a “weird election.” But with Election Day just three weeks away, the midterms aren’t shaping up that way.Here’s the thing about elections: When they break, they usually break in one direction. And right now, all the indicators on my political dashboard are blinking red — as in, toward Republicans.First, there’s inflation. It hasn’t gone away as the Biden administration had hoped, and the Federal Reserve likewise seems to be hamstrung in dealing with it. Americans are being squeezed between exorbitant prices for consumer goods — inflation is still at 40-year highs — and interest rates that the Fed has ratcheted up as it seeks to rein in those prices. Anyone trying to buy a home now faces 30-year mortgage rates that have soared past 6 percent.The latest New York Times/Siena poll, my colleague Nate Cohn wrote this week, suggests that “the conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place,” with voters’ sour view of the economy driving the downturn in the party’s prospects.As John Halpin, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, wrote recently in his newsletter, “inflation is a political wrecking ball for incumbent governments” around the world. Why should the United States be different?Then there’s crime, which has rapidly moved up the ladder of issues that matter to voters. In a new Politico/Morning Consult poll, 64 percent of voters said crime would play a “major role” in how they voted, versus 59 percent who said the same of abortion access.Democrats have bet heavily that widespread anger over the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade would drive voters away from the Republican Party — especially college-educated women in the suburbs. President Biden pledged on Tuesday to protect abortion rights in a clear attempt to bring the issue back to the forefront of public discussion.Democrats’ strategy might have been a smart move in an otherwise brutal year for the party. But it has also come at a cost: All those abortion ads have taken resources away from whacking Republicans for opposing the policies Democrats passed in Congress this year.Some of those policies are broadly popular, like the way that the Inflation Reduction Act allows the federal government to negotiate prices for certain prescription drugs.But a recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that only 36 percent of voters were aware of this development. That’s a huge communication failure — or a reflection that Democrats don’t think promoting their accomplishments would move or mobilize many votes.And finally, there’s the historical pattern of midterm elections, which tend to be referendums on the party in power. Older voters, who broadly lean Republican, also usually turn out more reliably in nonpresidential years, while younger, more transient Democratic voters are more fickle.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.G.O.P. Gains Edge: Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with an advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, a Times/Siena poll found.Codifying Roe: President Biden pledged that the first bill he would send to Capitol Hill next year if Democrats expand their control of Congress in the midterm elections would be legislation to enshrine abortion rights into law.Florida Senate Race: In the only debate of the contest, exchanges between Senator Marco Rubio and his Democratic challenger, Representative Val Demings, got fiery at times. Here are four takeaways.Aggressive Tactics: Right-wing leaders are calling on election activists to monitor voting in the midterm elections in search of evidence to confirm unfounded theories of election fraud.So, as the polls move the G.O.P.’s way, this election is looking a lot more “normal” than it might have seemed over the summer. Robert Gibbs, a former White House press secretary under President Barack Obama, wrote in his newsletter today: “We’re still in a very weird election, but it looks like it’s going to be more normal as we get into these final 21 days.”For Democrats hoping that this midterm election might be different from most others, normalcy is bad news.The Republican nominee in one of Rhode Island’s two congressional districts, Allan Fung, left, is leading Seth Magaziner, the state treasurer and a Democrat, in public polls.Corey Welch/WPRI, via Associated PressRepublicans go on offenseAs the playing field tilts toward Republicans, conservative groups are pouring money into newly competitive races, especially on the more volatile House side.This week’s Times/Siena poll showed Republicans leading Democrats by four percentage points in the generic congressional ballot, a widely monitored gauge of voter sentiment that asks respondents which party’s candidate they are most likely to vote for. It’s an especially meaningful indicator in races with no Democratic incumbent, because it takes time and money for little-known candidates to build up their personal brands. And the Democrats’ national brand is faring poorly right now.A super PAC aligned with Representative Kevin McCarthy, the Republican minority leader, just bought $4 million in television ads targeting Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, whose new Hudson Valley district Biden won by five points in 2020. Maloney is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and his defeat would be deeply embarrassing to House Democrats.Republicans are also crowing about their chances of winning three open seats in Oregon that were previously held by Democrats, as well as a long-shot bid to unseat Representative Jahana Hayes in northwestern Connecticut. And even in wicked-blue Rhode Island, the Republican nominee in one of the state’s two congressional districts, Allan Fung, is leading Seth Magaziner, the state treasurer and a Democrat, in public polls.The Senate, where Democrats have huge cash advantages in races that are driven much more by personality, still looks like a tossup.But even there, Democrats are feeling some new heartburn. In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray’s lead over Tiffany Smiley, the Republican, has narrowed slightly since the summer. And as the polls have tightened, Smiley has outraised her Democratic opponent for the first time — by nearly a two-to-one margin.A loss for Murray would be a major upset. And if Democrats now need to worry about a state like Washington, that’s a dire sign for their chances in November.What to readFewer debates, little retail politicking, scarce town halls: This year’s campaigns look far different from those in the past as traditional norms erode, Lisa Lerer and Jazmine Ulloa write.Senator Bernie Sanders is planning an eight-state blitz over the final two weekends before the midterm elections, looking to rally young voters and progressives.Newly released body camera footage shows how Gov. Ron DeSantis’s much-publicized crackdown on voter fraud caused confusion among those arrested.In a 2021 video, Donald Trump inquired about whether a documentary filmmaker recording an interview with him was a “good Jewish character,” described Persians as “very good salesmen” and complained that Israeli Jews favored him more than Jews in the United States, Maggie Haberman reports.Capitol Hill notepadRepresentative Kevin McCarthy, left, and Senator Mitch McConnell with President Donald Trump in 2020.Doug Mills/The New York TimesMcCarthy zigs while McConnell zagsMitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader at the time of the Ukraine impeachment inquiry, warned President Donald Trump that his infamous call with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine was “not perfect” — even as McConnell downplayed its importance in public.At the same time, Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, was scoffing behind closed doors about the nature of the offense, while leaning on wavering Republicans to reject Democrats’ calls for an impeachment inquiry.The dueling anecdotes are revealed in a book out this week, “Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress’s Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump,” by Rachael Bade and Karoun Demirjian. They encapsulate an important difference between the two Republican leaders as they seek a return to power.Both men went along with many of Trump’s excesses. But while McCarthy usually told Trump what he wanted to hear, McConnell sometimes pushed back. It’s why Trump has railed against McConnell, calling him an “old crow,” and recently accused him of harboring a “death wish” — but has helped set McCarthy on a glide path to becoming speaker if Republicans retake the House next month.“If this is the ‘launching point’ for House Democrats’ impeachment process, they’ve already overplayed their hand,” McConnell said after Trump released a transcript of the call, according to the book. “It’s clear there is no quid pro quo that the Democrats were desperately praying for.”But earlier, McConnell’s chief counsel, Andrew Ferguson, zeroed in one remark: Trump’s request to “do us a favor, though,” which Ferguson told his boss was “the dynamite line.” Agreeing, McConnell told Trump privately that the call with Zelensky was a problem.“This call is not perfect,” McConnell told Trump. “And you are going to get in deep trouble for it.”McConnell also cautioned his fellow Republican senators not to take a side. “Don’t box yourself in until you know all the facts,” he told them.McCarthy handled the Ukraine imbroglio rather differently. At a meeting with Trump’s aides to go over the transcript, he was unmoved by what he read, asking, “Is this everything?”Then he dialed up Representative Mark Amodei, a Nevada Republican who had expressed some support for an impeachment inquiry — and pressured him to walk back his remarks ASAP.“Using government agencies to, if it’s proven, to put your finger on the scale of an election, I don’t think that’s right,” Amodei had said. The comments set off a media frenzy, leading some to conclude that impeachment might gain Republican support.Bade and Demirjian write that McCarthy was worried Trump would “flip” when he saw the comments.“Oh, man, I screwed up,” Amodei said when the two men spoke. McCarthy instructed him to put out a statement to repair any potential damage with Trump. He quickly did, clarifying, “In no way, shape, or form, did I indicate support for impeachment.”David Frum, a conservative writer for The Atlantic and one of Trump’s leading critics, recently opined that McCarthy “thinks the job to be the speaker of the House is a little bit like being a concierge at some rock-star hotel, where people come downstairs at all hours and they make crazy demands, and you say, ‘Yes, sir, right away, sir. We’ll have the dim sum and cocaine to your room in 15 minutes, sir.’”Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Ron Johnson Website and Video Urge Reporting of Suspected Election Problems

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      Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who has amplified unfounded claims of voter fraud for years, launched a website and a video on Wednesday encouraging people to report suspected “election integrity” problems and instructing poll workers in how to spot and report “disqualifying issues” with absentee ballots.The move by Mr. Johnson, a Republican, was not part of the usual get-out-the-vote effort that is typical in the final weeks of a midterm election. Instead, the senator and his campaign seemed eager to put his supporters on alert for suspicious voting activity.“Everyone in Wisconsin should have the assurance that their vote counts, and it will not be canceled by a fraudulent vote,” Mr. Johnson said in a statement his campaign released.The website that was launched by the Johnson campaign provides voters with a form to report incidents involving “election integrity” and to submit any files or images of such incidents.A corresponding 45-second video appears to be a brief instruction guide aimed at poll workers or election monitors. It describes how to spot “disqualifying issues” with absentee ballots, including verifying that both signature sections are completed. And it urges viewers to fully document any problems with a ballot if a ballot is accepted despite their objections.While Republicans have spent much of the last two years mounting false arguments about voter fraud and illegally cast ballots in the 2020 election, no evidence has emerged to support their claims. In Wisconsin, the Republican-controlled State Assembly allocated more than $1 million to a former State Supreme Court justice to investigate the 2020 election and emerged with no new information.Mr. Johnson is among an array of Republicans seeking office this year who have refused, in advance, to accept the results of the 2022 elections. After an onslaught of attack ads aimed at his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Mr. Johnson leads in public polling in the state.Since the 2020 election, Republicans who falsely believe that the presidency was stolen from Donald J. Trump have spread misinformation claiming widespread electoral fraud. They are now becoming involved in the counting of votes, using aggressive litigation, the monitoring of poll workers and challenges to voter registrations. More