Midterm Elections (2022)

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      Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker Prepare to Debate in Georgia

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      ATLANTA — One is a seasoned public speaker, accustomed to delivering sermons nearly every Sunday from the pulpit of the famed Atlanta church where the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. once preached. The other is a political novice whose meandering, often nonsensical oratory on the stump tends to inspire as much mockery as it does applause.The stark stylistic differences between the polished Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and his less politically refined Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, the former University of Georgia football great, add unpredictability and intrigue to their highly anticipated debate on Friday night.Their matchup, just three days before early voting begins in Georgia, will be the first — and probably the only — debate in the state’s race for Senate, which has emerged as one of the most pivotal contests for control of the chamber. The one-hour event, hosted by Nexstar Media in Savannah, Ga., will begin at 7 p.m. Eastern.The debate will test whether Mr. Warnock can expand what polls suggest is a narrow advantage over his rival, and whether Mr. Walker can quiet doubts about his qualifications for the office after a wave of explosive reports describing past behavior of his that has contradicted his public stances.Over the summer, The Daily Beast reported that Mr. Walker had fathered three children he did not previously disclose, and more recently, an ex-girlfriend of Mr. Walker’s told The New York Times that he had paid for her to have an abortion and had asked her to have a second abortion, even though he has campaigned on his opposition to the procedure with no exceptions.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.Ahead of the debate, Mr. Walker has tried to manage expectations. Last month, he half-jokingly told reporters that he was “a country boy” and “not that smart,” saying that Mr. Warnock was “going to show up and embarrass me.”But if Mr. Walker has succeeded in setting a lower bar to clear against Mr. Warnock, who grounds many of his stump speeches in policy-heavy talking points, the face-off will also offer the Democratic incumbent a ripe opportunity to attack his opponent directly — something he has so far done only in advertisements..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Democrats have flooded the airwaves with millions of dollars in negative advertising against Mr. Walker, underlining allegations of domestic violence brought forth by his ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, and his son Christian Walker.The two candidates have engaged in months of back-and-forth over whether, where and when they would debate. One day after the May 24 primary election, Mr. Warnock committed to debates in Atlanta, Macon and Savannah. Mr. Walker, who did not debate his Republican primary opponents, would not commit to any of the three events but maintained a positive front when asked about them.“I’ve told him many times, I’m ready to debate him any time, any day,” Mr. Walker told Brian Kilmeade of Fox News in July.His campaign did not respond to invitations from the hosts of the debates in Atlanta, Macon and Savannah that Mr. Warnock had committed to. The Walker campaign agreed in August to attend the Nexstar debate, and Mr. Warnock followed suit in September.In a Thursday morning campaign memo, Mr. Warnock’s campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, said that Friday’s debate would “put on full display the clear choice” between the two candidates, arguing that Mr. Walker’s “pattern of lies, disturbing behavior and positions prove he is not ready to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate.”Mr. Walker, who has traded time on the campaign trail for hours of intensive debate practice over the last few weeks, is likely to underline the policy differences between himself and his Democratic opponent by tying Mr. Warnock to President Biden, who is widely unpopular among Georgia voters. Mr. Walker has repeatedly criticized both Mr. Warnock and Mr. Biden for their economic policies, blaming them for higher food and fuel prices in Georgia.In a fund-raising email to supporters on Thursday, Mr. Walker encouraged supporters to tune in to the debate and vowed to “defeat the disastrous Biden agenda” if elected to the Senate.Still, he ended with a plea for more financial support to bolster his campaign in its final weeks.“It’s going to take more than one event on a Friday night to convince voters there’s a better choice to turn our country around,” he wrote. More

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      Why Social Security’s Inflation Protection Is Priceless

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      Automatically adjusted lifetime income is rare and worth protecting, our columnist says.The 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security isn’t just a big benefit increase.It’s priceless.You can’t buy inflation-protected lifetime income like that on the open market, not from an entity as solid as the United States government.“People don’t appreciate what a terrific thing Social Security is, in so many ways,” said Charles D. Ellis, an author and investment consultant who has studied Social Security for decades. “The COLA is a reminder: When there is serious inflation, as we have right now, you can count on Social Security taking care of it for you.”If you are an investor, there are many ways of hedging against inflation, like I bonds, which are issued by the Treasury Department and currently pay 9.62 percent interest.But safe, monthly lifetime income that automatically keeps up with inflation? You get that with Social Security.“It’s just what investors need for retirement,” Zvi Bodie, professor emeritus in finance at Boston University, said in an interview. “But, unfortunately, you can’t really get it anywhere else.”How It StartedWhile the market value of Social Security’s inflation-adjusted income can’t be easily priced, it can be evaluated in limited ways.The new COLA is really big — the biggest since 1981, when the adjustment was 11.2 percent. These automatic, yearly inflation increases began in 1975, during a decade of high inflation, when politicians understood that retirees needed help to keep up with rising prices. Before then, it took specific congressional action to raise benefit levels.The first automatic increase was 8 percent in 1975; the highest was 14.3 percent in 1980. The adjustments didn’t drop below 5 percent until 1983, after the Federal Reserve, led by Paul A. Volcker, threw the economy into two successive recessions.Until last year’s 5.9 percent COLA, the previous nine annual adjustments were invariably below 3 percent. Social Security COLAs didn’t command big headlines.More on Social Security and RetirementMedicare Costs: Low-income Americans on Medicare can get assistance paying their premiums and other expenses. This is how to apply.Downsizing in Retirement: People selling their homes often have to shell out more to spend less. Here’s what to consider.Claiming Social Security: Looking to make the most of this benefit? These online tools can help you figure out your income needs and when to file.A Look at the Current NumbersBut high inflation has come back with a vengeance, and the current COLA is welcome for the roughly 70 million people, including retirees and the disabled, who receive Social Security benefits.For someone receiving $1,754 a month — the average monthly benefit for someone retiring in December — the COLA means an increase of about $153 a month, or $1,831 a year.For many people, these increases are absolutely critical.Consider a few statistics.Among older women who receive Social Security retiree or survivor benefits, 42 percent get at least half their income from Social Security. Among older men, 37 percent do. If you are living on Social Security, every cent matters after the price of food has risen 11.2 percent this year, as the latest numbers show.Even for fairly affluent people, the inflation-adjusted payments can be significant.Imagine that your earnings have put you at the high end of the national income distribution for many years. In addition, you have followed the standard advice to maximize benefits by not claiming Social Security until you reach 70. That will get you the maximum retirement benefit for Social Security, which is $4,194 a month, or $50,328 for this year.The inflation adjustment amounts to an annual increase of about $4,379, raising your yearly Social Security benefits to $54,707. And the inflation increase will be compounded, as part of your Social Security income, year after year.I don’t know about you, but the total strikes me as substantial. What’s more, if prices soar next year, there will be another significant inflation adjustment.Most jobs don’t afford this kind of protection, but Social Security is different. You don’t have to convince anyone that your income — now or in the future — ought to keep up with inflation.Social Security may seem irrelevant if you are young. You may believe it’s too early to think about retirement, or you may have been told that Social Security won’t be there for you when you are older.But be aware that these inflation adjustments are likely to affect you.All else being equal — that is, if your promised benefits aren’t cut because of future funding shortfalls — the inflation adjustments will increase what you receive down the road.Now, it’s true that unless Congress takes action, the Social Security Trust Funds are projected to run out of money around 2035. If that happened and Congress did absolutely nothing, the tax revenues coming regularly into the Social Security system would still pay about 80 percent of your promised benefits.But what about the rest of the money?I asked Mr. Ellis. He is a co-author of the book “Falling Short: The Coming Retirement Crisis and What to Do About It.”First, he said, Congress is virtually certain to fully protect people already receiving benefits. “No politician wants to tell older people, who vote in large numbers, that their benefits are being cut,” he said.As for everyone else, it’s important that people understand how valuable these benefits are and make their voices heard, Mr. Ellis said. Social Security has been short on funds before, and the Trust Funds can easily be built up again, much as they were in the 1980s. “I think the more people understand about Social Security,” he said, “the more likely it is that it will be preserved.” An Invaluable Benefit Without a Market PriceAll that said, how much would Social Security be worth if you could buy and sell a lifetime of benefits?You can’t really do this in financial markets, but let’s look more closely.In technical terms, Social Security is a form of an annuity — insurance that pays annual income for the rest of your life (and, for retirees, with benefits for your surviving spouse and children until they reach age 18).Annuities are sold by insurance companies in many shapes and sizes, but they aren’t popular, even though economists often recommend simple, low-cost annuities for safe and stable income.You can buy annuities that will increase their payouts by, say, 3 percent every year, but none are available now that include full cost-of-living adjustments like Social Security.There are two reasons for this, said Wade Pfau, a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services. First, inflation was so low for so long that there was little demand for them, and the market withered. Second, as the current inflation surge demonstrates, “no one can accurately predict inflation, and it’s extremely difficult for insurance companies to make long-term projections and price the annuities properly,” he said.Ariel Stern, the chief operating officer of ImmediateAnnuities.com, which provides estimates of annuity costs, identified the only person who had ever used the service to buy an annuity with a full COLA. That was Jim Oatman, a 73-year-old actuary in Arizona, who purchased one from Principal for himself and his wife in 2018, shortly before Principal, the last company to offer such annuities, stopped selling them.In a telephone interview, Mr. Oatman said he had paid $200,000 for the annuity. Its monthly payouts started at $602 in early 2019. That was about half of what he said he could have gotten in monthly payments for an annuity without an inflation adjustment.“It’s expensive, but I’m a numbers guy, and I remember the 1970s and wanted the protection,” Mr. Oatman said. One COLA increased the payments to $635 a month, and another, bigger “bump” will come in November, he said, but added ruefully, “It will take years of inflation for me to catch up to what I would have had without that inflation adjustment.”Still, “it’s a risk thing,” he said. “If inflation goes very high for several years running, I’m going to feel like the smartest guy around.”Even when you could buy an annuity like that, the market was tiny. In addition, interest rates were lower a few years ago, and payouts for annuities were lower, too. For these reasons, we can’t really use Mr. Oatman’s annuity to come up with reliable market pricing for Social Security benefits.In addition, no private company is directly comparable to the U.S. government, which, even with its manifest problems, is backed by the world’s largest economy and most powerful military. In theory, the government should be safer than a mere corporation — if not for Social Security funding’s politics-induced uncertainty, which economists have been measuring for years.Still, for a ballpark estimate, it seems safe to say that as an annuity on the open market, the average monthly Social Security benefit awarded in December, even without that invaluable COLA, would be worth close to $300,000 and probably much more, based on estimates from ImmediateAnnuites.com.Even at the low end, that’s more than double the $144,000 that the average household had in 401(k) and individual retirement accounts in 2019, according to the most recent estimates provided by Anqi Chen, a senior research economist of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The inflation adjustment has immeasurable value on top of that.If you are fairly affluent, consider this.As an annuity, the maximum Social Security benefit without any COLA would be worth at least $665,000 and as much as $909,000. Adding a COLA of any kind would push its value to $1 million, and much more than that for a full inflation adjustment linked to the Consumer Price Index, like Social Security’s.If anything, these numbers understate Social Security’s monetary value. They are intended merely to give you an appreciation of benefits that are, really, priceless.Anything that precious needs to be preserved.By all means, put away as much money as you can and invest it wisely.But these estimates suggest that the most important steps most Americans can take to fortify their retirement involve Social Security.Work as long as you can at a job you enjoy, and delay claiming Social Security until as late as possible — ideally, until you turn 70. That’s just a start.You must pay Social Security taxes your entire working life. If you want to collect what you are owed when the time comes, make it crystal clear to the political class that you expect every cent of the Social Security benefits you have been promised. 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      What Rachel Maddow Has Been Thinking About Offscreen

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      “The Rachel Maddow Show” debuted in the interregnum between political eras. Before it lay the 9/11 era and the George W. Bush presidency. Days after the show launched in 2008, Lehman Brothers collapsed, and a few weeks later Barack Obama was elected president.And then history just kept speeding up. The Tea Party. The debt ceiling debacles. Donald Trump. The coronavirus pandemic. January 6th. The big lie. Maddow covered and tried to make sense of it all. Now, after 14 years, she has taken her show down to one episode a week and is launching other projects — like “Ultra,” the history podcast we discuss in this episode.[You can listen to this episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]But I wanted to talk to Maddow about how American politics and media have changed over the course of her show. We discuss the legacies of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the cycle of economic crises we appear to keep having, Maddow’s relationships with Pat Buchanan and Tucker Carlson, where the current G.O.P.’s anti-democracy efforts really started, how Obama’s presidency changed politics, how Maddow finds and chooses her stories, the statehouse Republicans who tilled the soil for Trump’s big lie and more.You can listen to our whole conversation by following “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you get your podcasts. View a list of book recommendations from our guests here.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)MSNBC“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma. Our researcher is Emefa Agawu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Original music by Isaac Jones. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Kristina Samulewski. More

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      Five Takeaways From the Michigan Governor’s Debate

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      Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, and Tudor Dixon, her Republican challenger, on Thursday gave debate viewers a clear contrast of the choice they will have on the Nov. 8 ballot: an outsider versus an experienced politician.Ms. Whitmer, who is seeking re-election, sought to keep her tone positive, even as she took swipes at her opponent. She reminded viewers of the violent threats she faced as she tried to lead the state through the Covid pandemic. Ms. Whitmer also stressed her belief in bipartisanship and her work with Republicans, who control both chambers of the Michigan Legislature.“I will continue to work with anyone who wants to solve problems, not just score political points with rhetoric but actually come to the table with alternatives,” she said.Ms. Dixon, a former steel industry executive turned conservative news commentator, held her own as she tried to harness voters’ anger over high food and gas prices and pandemic-driven stretches of crippling unemployment, school closures and business restrictions.“This governor’s state policies are radical, dangerous and destructive,” she said. “Crime is up, jobs are down, schools are worse and the roads didn’t get fixed.”For the first time in a Michigan governor’s race, both contenders are women.The contest is playing out in an extraordinarily tense political environment in Michigan. Before the 2020 election, federal prosecutors accused several men of plotting to kidnap Ms. Whitmer, partly over her handling of the pandemic. Two men pleaded guilty, two men were acquitted and, in August, two others were convicted by jurors. A related trial is now underway in state court.Ms. Whitmer, who has been leading in the polls, has sought to keep the focus on her efforts to bring jobs to Michigan and to paint Ms. Dixon as out of step with voters on abortion. Ms. Dixon, who is backed by former President Donald J. Trump and the politically powerful DeVos family, has leaned hard into attacking transgender women and criticizing Ms. Whitmer for her pandemic-era policies on businesses.But Ms. Dixon has struggled to build out a campaign in the state, where Democrats are sharply outspending Republicans on the television airwaves.Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor in Michigan. She described herself as “pro-life with exceptions for life of the mother.”Bryan Esler/Nexstar Media GroupAbortion was prominent, but viewers learned nothing new.The first question of the night touched on the issue that has dominated the race and that may prove to be a litmus test for the state’s suburban and independent voters.With the enforcement of a 1931 law banning abortion temporarily blocked in the state and voters set to decide in November whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution, Ms. Whitmer highlighted her track record of being an outspoken supporter of abortion rights.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.She also criticized her opponent for saying that abortion should be allowed only if it is necessary to save the life of a mother, not in cases of rape or incest. “We know that our fundamental rights are very much at risk right now,” she said.Ms. Dixon described herself as “pro-life with exceptions for life of the mother” and said abortion rules in the state would be decided by voters or a judge. She leaned into a strategy that she and other Republicans have deployed throughout the campaign trail, seeking to paint Ms. Whitmer as “extremely radical” on the issue.Fighting about the pandemic remains a hot topic.Ms. Whitmer, asked if there was anything she would have done differently in her response to the pandemic, painted a stark picture of the situation that the state faced during an early wave of infections that drove a spike in deaths.“We knew that our hospitals were filling up and that people were dying,” said Ms. Whitmer, whose early restrictions were among the most sweeping in the Midwest. “We were in desperate search of masks and ventilators. There were refrigerated trucks outside of some of our hospitals to store people’s bodies.”Ms. Dixon accused the governor of bungling the response to Covid in nursing homes and blasted her over an audit that showed Michigan paid up to $8.5 billion in fraudulent unemployment assistance claims. She argued that Ms. Whitmer kept students “locked out of schools and wouldn’t listen to parents when they begged her to let them play.”Ms. Whitmer told viewers that her life was being threatened — possibly an allusion to the plot to kidnap her in 2020 — as she tried to navigate the state through the pandemic.The kids aren’t all right.Schools, both their safety and the quality of education, have been major themes in the race.The year Ms. Whitmer was sworn into office, Michigan public school students showed significant improvement after years of struggles. But the pandemic crippled the academic landscape across the country.On the campaign trail, Ms. Dixon has repeatedly drawn criticism for anti-L.G.B.T.Q. language, as she has pledged to keep transgender girls out of girls’ sports and accused schools of teaching “radical sex and gender theory.” But on the debate stage, she often kept her comments more subdued, saying she would spend more money on public schools and focus students on the basics: “Get back to reading, writing and math.”Ms. Whitmer fired back by criticizing Ms. Dixon for her ties to the powerful DeVos family, which has long worked to support charter schools and private schools.School safety has been front-of-mind in Michigan since a deadly shooting at Oxford High School last year. Ms. Whitmer noted the gun rules she backs: “secure storage,” background checks and “red-flag” gun seizure laws. Ms. Dixon argued in favor of arming and training people inside schools to confront a gunman.Cars, roads and gas came up again and again.In a state that is home to both the American auto industry and a striking number of potholes, the two candidates spent a lot of time talking about cars and the surfaces they drive on.Ms. Whitmer, who ran four years ago on a pledge to “Fix the Damn Roads,” said there had been plenty of progress, but not nearly enough time to overcome decades of rotting pavement.“We are fixing the damn roads,” the governor said. “We are moving dirt.”Ms. Dixon said that the governor had failed to keep her promises, and that the state’s infrastructure remained lacking.Electric vehicles also came up often. Ms. Dixon claimed her opponent “wants you to pay more for gas to force you into electric vehicles.” Ms. Whitmer scoffed at that suggestion.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a former prosecutor, said she had sought more funding for law enforcement.Bryan Esler/Nexstar Media GroupDixon tried to portray the governor as weak on crime.Ms. Dixon invoked the governor’s embrace of protesters after the 2020 killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police and reminded viewers that Ms. Whitmer once said she supported the “spirit” of efforts to defund the police.“We will never defund the police,” said Ms. Dixon, who played up her support from law enforcement organizations.Ms. Whitmer, a former prosecutor, countered by saying she had sought more funding for law enforcement and had worked across party lines on the issue. She also noted her own endorsements from law enforcement officials.“They know we have made the biggest investments supporting them, and we will continue to do so, so long as I’m governor,” Ms. Whitmer said.The governor also criticized Ms. Dixon for defending the actions of a Grand Rapids police officer who fatally shot Patrick Lyoya, a Congolese immigrant, after a traffic stop in April. That officer, Christopher Schurr, was later charged with murder and fired from the Police Department. He has denied wrongdoing and is awaiting trial. More

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      Twitter and TikTok Lead in Amplifying Misinformation, Report Finds

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      A new analysis found that algorithms and some features of social media sites help false posts go viral.It is well known that social media amplifies misinformation and other harmful content. The Integrity Institute, an advocacy group, is now trying to measure exactly how much — and on Thursday it began publishing results that it plans to update each week through the midterm elections on Nov. 8.The institute’s initial report, posted online, found that a “well-crafted lie” will get more engagements than typical, truthful content and that some features of social media sites and their algorithms contribute to the spread of misinformation.Twitter, the analysis showed, has what the institute called the great misinformation amplification factor, in large part because of its feature allowing people to share, or “retweet,” posts easily. It was followed by TikTok, the Chinese-owned video site, which uses machine-learning models to predict engagement and make recommendations to users.“We see a difference for each platform because each platform has different mechanisms for virality on it,” said Jeff Allen, a former integrity officer at Facebook and a founder and the chief research officer at the Integrity Institute. “The more mechanisms there are for virality on the platform, the more we see misinformation getting additional distribution.”The institute calculated its findings by comparing posts that members of the International Fact-Checking Network have identified as false with the engagement of previous posts that were not flagged from the same accounts. It analyzed nearly 600 fact-checked posts in September on a variety of subjects, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the upcoming elections.Facebook, according to the sample that the institute has studied so far, had the most instances of misinformation but amplified such claims to a lesser degree, in part because sharing posts requires more steps. But some of its newer features are more prone to amplify misinformation, the institute found.Facebook’s amplification factor of video content alone is closer to TikTok’s, the institute found. That’s because the platform’s Reels and Facebook Watch, which are video features, “both rely heavily on algorithmic content recommendations” based on engagements, according to the institute’s calculations.Instagram, which like Facebook is owned by Meta, had the lowest amplification rate. There was not yet sufficient data to make a statistically significant estimate for YouTube, according to the institute.The institute plans to update its findings to track how the amplification fluctuates, especially as the midterm elections near. Misinformation, the institute’s report said, is much more likely to be shared than merely factual content.“Amplification of misinformation can rise around critical events if misinformation narratives take hold,” the report said. “It can also fall, if platforms implement design changes around the event that reduce the spread of misinformation.” More

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      Election Firm Knew Data Had Been Sent to China, Prosecutors Say

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      The executive of a small Michigan elections software company was charged with grand theft by embezzlement and conspiracy to commit a crime.Before the arrest of its founder and chief executive, Eugene Yu, Konnech repeatedly denied keeping data outside the United States, including in statements to The New York Times.Emily Elconin for The New York TimesWhen Eugene Yu’s small election software company signed a contract to help Los Angeles County organize poll workers for the 2020 election, he agreed to keep the workers’ personal data in the United States.But the company, Konnech, transferred personal data on thousands of the election workers to developers in China who were writing and troubleshooting software, according to a court filing that Los Angeles County prosecutors made on Thursday.The filing adds new details about the arrest last week of Mr. Yu, whose company has been the focus of groups challenging the validity of the 2020 presidential election. Some of those groups have accused the company of storing information about poll workers on servers in China. Before the arrest, the company repeatedly denied keeping data outside the United States, including in statements to The New York Times.Los Angeles prosecutors initially accused Mr. Yu of embezzling public money by knowingly violating the terms of the company’s contract. Since searching Konnech’s offices and Mr. Yu’s home, the prosecutors have also accused him of conspiring with others to commit a crime, according to the new legal filing. It is rare for an executive to face criminal charges for potentially mishandling data. He is scheduled to be arraigned on Friday.In the filing, prosecutors said a project manager at Konnech had sent an internal email early this month saying the company would no longer send personal data to Chinese contractors. “We need to ensure the security privacy and confidentially,” the email said.In a separate message, sent in August, the project manager noted that the contractors had high-level access to all of the poll worker software used by its customers. He called it a “huge security issue.”The documents did not specify whether others were being investigated or would be charged, and the district attorney’s office declined to comment.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.Los Angeles prosecutors said last week that none of Mr. Yu’s or Konnech’s actions had altered election results and that they had seen no evidence of identity theft. They have not indicated any motive in their public statements.The prosecutors said that the charges focused on the handling of personal information about poll workers, such as their names and phone numbers, and that the data did not relate to ballots or the voting process. Still, with the midterm elections just weeks away, several counties that use Konnech software said they were rushing to reassure voters that their elections were secure.Mr. Yu’s lawyer did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Konnech, which is based in Michigan, has about 20 employees in the United States and about 20 customers. It plays no role in the tabulation or counting of votes in American elections.Nevertheless, some election deniers have targeted the company, saying they discovered the company’s data in China and suggesting that Konnech gave the Chinese government a back door to manipulate America’s election process. The New York Times published an article about those claims early last week, as a part of its coverage of misinformation and elections.Los Angeles prosecutors arrested Mr. Yu the day after the article was published, raising questions about the truthfulness of statements that Mr. Yu made to The Times just days earlier, when he denied the accusations and said poll worker data had never been stored in China.If convicted, Mr. Yu faces a maximum sentence of three years in prison for the charges of grand theft by embezzlement of public funds and conspiracy to commit a crime. He also faces an additional five years because the contract was valued at more than $500,000.A ballot-tallying center in Los Angeles County. Officials have said the county will continue to use Konnech’s software to manage data on about 12,000 to 14,000 poll workers for the midterm elections.Allison Zaucha for The New York TimesThe district attorney’s office said it was sifting through a trove of documents seized in its search of Konnech’s offices and Mr. Yu’s home last week. If those files reveal similar crimes in other counties, prosecutors could hand off the case to federal investigators.More than 20 attorneys general, district attorneys and election officials have contacted the district attorney’s office over the past week, they said.Mark Kriger, one of Mr. Yu’s lawyers, said in a bond hearing last week that Mr. Yu had participated in two voluntary interviews several weeks ago with the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Mr. Yu told the agency that he was not aware of any data from Konnech being stored in China, the lawyer said at the hearing.The F.B.I. agents were surprised to learn about Mr. Yu’s arrest, Mr. Kriger said at the hearing. A spokeswoman for the F.B.I. said she “wouldn’t be in the position to confirm or deny comments made by the attorney.”Mr. Yu, 64 and a Chinese-born American citizen, co-founded Konnech in 2002 as a phone technology company. He turned it into an elections software company in the late 2000s.In statements made to The New York Times before his arrest, Mr. Yu said that he had shuttered Konnech’s Chinese subsidiary in 2021 and that he no longer had employees there. Two people with knowledge of the company, who would speak only anonymously because of the legal proceedings, said it was known within Konnech that employees should avoid bringing up the use of Chinese contractors when talking to customers.Attention on the company surged in August and September after a conference hosted by Catherine Engelbrecht, the founder of True the Vote, a nonprofit that claims to be searching for evidence of voter fraud, and Gregg Phillips, an election denier and longtime associate of the group.The group claimed that their team had discovered and downloaded Konnech’s data from servers located in China.Mr. Yu later sued the group for defamation, hacking and other charges, and hired a crisis management company. That case, based in Texas, is continuing.The Los Angeles County district attorney’s office said its investigation began after Mr. Phillips had sent a tip to its public integrity division. When it announced the charges last week, the district attorney’s office told The New York Times in a statement that the group’s investigation had no input on the county’s investigation.After Mr. Yu’s arrest, Konnech sent an identical letter to several customers claiming that they had “never hosted your data or system in servers outside of the United States.”Fairfax County, Va., the City of Detroit, and Prince William County, Va., terminated their contracts with Konnech after Mr. Yu’s arrest.Los Angeles County said it would continue using Konnech software to manage data on about 12,000 to 14,000 poll workers for the midterm elections.Dekalb County in Georgia voted to keep its contract with Konnech, adding an amendment that the data would be stored on servers owned by Dekalb County instead of by Konnech.“We’re one week out from early voting starting in Georgia and run the risk of our election operations going awry from a company that is going down in flames,” Marci McCarthy, the chairwoman for the county’s Republican Party, said in an interview after the vote.“It’s not over,” she added. 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      Democrats Worry Katie Hobbs Is Stumbling in Arizona’s Governor Race

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      Hobbs, the Arizona secretary of state, has often been overshadowed by her Republican opponent, Kari Lake, in one of the country’s closest and most important contests.It’s angst season on the left — and perhaps nowhere more so than in Arizona, which appears determined to retain its crown as the most politically volatile state in America.Democrats are openly expressing their alarm that Katie Hobbs, the party’s nominee for governor, is fumbling a chance to defeat Kari Lake in one of the most closely watched races of the 2022 campaign.Lake, a telegenic former television anchor who rose to prominence as she pantomimed Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, has taken a hard line against abortion and routinely uses strident language on the stump. The Atlantic recently called her “Trumpism’s leading lady.” She has largely overshadowed Hobbs, whose more subdued personality has driven far fewer headlines.The immediate object of Democratic hand-wringing this week is a decision by Hobbs, who has served as Arizona’s secretary of state since 2019, to decline to debate Lake. Instead, Hobbs arranged a one-on-one interview with a local PBS affiliate, a move that prompted the Citizens Clean Elections Commission, a group established by a ballot initiative in 1998, to cancel its planned Q. and A. with Lake.Thomas Collins, executive director of the commission, said in an interview that the Hobbs campaign had never seriously negotiated over the format of a debate — and that, in any case, the organization was neither willing nor able to accommodate what officials there viewed as an “ultimatum” from the secretary of state’s team about policing the “content” of the event.He shared an exchange of letters and emails between the commission and Nicole DeMont, Hobbs’s campaign manager, who wrote in an email that Hobbs was “willing and eager to participate in a town-hall-style event” but would not join a debate that would “would only lead to constant interruptions, pointless distractions and childish name-calling.”On Wednesday, Lake repeated her challenge to debate Hobbs and accused Arizona PBS, which did not respond to a request for comment, of cutting “a back-room deal with that coward to give her airtime that she does not deserve.”Days earlier, Lake tried to ambush Hobbs during a town hall event at which the candidates made separate appearances onstage — a stunt that was clearly intended to embarrass the Democrat.Hobbs has said she was simply reacting to the way Lake conducted herself during a Republican primary debate in June, in which she dodged questions and repeated falsehoods about what happened in 2020. “I have no desire to be a part of the spectacle that she’s looking to create, because that doesn’t do any service to the voters,” Hobbs said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”Among those second-guessing Hobbs’s decision this week was Sandra Kennedy, a co-chairwoman of President Biden’s 2020 campaign in Arizona. “If I were the candidate for governor, I would debate, and I would want the people of Arizona to know what my platform is,” Kennedy told NBC News.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.Laurie Roberts, a liberal columnist for The Arizona Republic, published a scathing column on Hobbs this week in which she wrote that the Democratic nominee’s refusal to debate Lake “represents a new level of political malpractice.”And David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, criticized Hobbs on his podcast for what he said was a “mistake” in avoiding debates with Lake. He added, “I think it’s a recognition that Kari Lake is a formidable media personality.”Democrats have also noted that when Hobbs appeared on “Face the Nation” — directly after Lake gave an interview to Major Garrett of CBS News — she spent much of the eight-minute interview on the defensive rather than prosecuting a political argument against her opponent. Democrats called it a missed opportunity to highlight’s Lake’s slippery answers about the 2020 election.One reason for the fraying nerves among Democrats is their widely shared view that the stakes of the governor’s race in Arizona are existential for the party. Democrats fear that Lake, if elected, would conspire to tilt the state back into the Republican column during the 2024 presidential election and help usher Trump back into power. Her charisma and on-camera skills make her uniquely dangerous, they say.Hobbs allies push backPrivately, while Democrats acknowledge that anxiety about the governor’s race is running high, they insist that Hobbs is running about as well as any Democrat could.They note that the contest is essentially tied in polls even though Arizona is a purple state with a deep reservoir of conservative voting habits. The current Republican governor, Doug Ducey, won re-election by more than 14 percentage points in 2018. (Ducey is stepping down because of term limits.) And they say that Hobbs, unlike Lake, is aiming her pitch primarily at swing voters rather than at her party’s base.Lake has pressured Hobbs to participate in a debate.Rebecca Noble for The New York TimesAccording to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index, which measures the past performance of states and congressional districts across the country, Republicans have a built-in advantage in Arizona of two percentage points.Some Democrats say Hobbs has failed to campaign vigorously enough, in contrast to the seemingly omnipresent Lake. Allies of Hobbs defend her by noting that she has been bopping around the state, but in something of an acknowledgment that she could do more, they say she is planning a third statewide tour as Arizona’s scorching heat dissipates this fall.“Katie Hobbs has been running an incredibly strong campaign, and the fact that this race is so competitive speaks to that,” said Christina Amestoy, a communications aide at the Democratic Governors Association, who dismissed the concerns as “angst from the chattering class.”Amestoy noted that Hobbs was drawing support from independents and Republicans as well as from partisan Democrats — a recognition, she said, that voters want “substance” over “conspiracy theories.”With the help of the governors group, which has transferred $7 million to the Arizona Democratic Party, Hobbs has spent more than $10 million on television ads since Labor Day. She has leaned heavily on two themes: her support for law enforcement, and a portrayal of Lake as an extremist on abortion.Several Hobbs ads show Chris Nanos, the grizzled sheriff of Pima County, in uniform. Nanos warns in one spot that Arizona law enforcement officers could be required to arrest doctors and nurses who perform abortions if Lake becomes governor. He says such a move would divert resources from fighting crime and illegal immigration.Other ads introducing Hobbs to voters have depicted her as a down-to-earth former social worker who drove for Uber as a state lawmaker to help make ends meet, an implied contrast to Lake, whose career as a newscaster made her moderately wealthy.The state of playDemocrats are counting on appealing to crossover voters in the suburbs, as they did when Biden won the state in 2020. They have highlighted Lake’s comments ripping Republicans who have criticized her as “a cavalcade of losers” and depicted her attempts to distance herself from previous hard-line remarks on abortion as duplicitous.Hobbs might benefit, too, from the strength of Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat who is polling comfortably ahead of Blake Masters, the Republican challenger in Arizona’s Senate race.Democrats in Arizona are running a coordinated statewide campaign that allows them, in theory, to reap economies of scale, target their spending and avoid duplicative efforts on traditional campaign activities like door-knocking and turnout operations.In contrast, Republicans in the state are in the midst of a power struggle between the fading establishment wing of the G.O.P., led by Ducey, and the emerging Trump-backed wing, spearheaded by Lake and Mark Finchem, the party’s nominee for secretary of state.In one small illustration of the infighting on the right, the Republican Governors Association has begun funneling its advertising money through the Yuma County Republican Party rather than the official state party, an unusual arrangement that speaks to the level of mutual mistrust between national Republican leaders and Kelli Ward, the chairwoman of the state Republican Party.That has given Democrats slightly more bang for their advertising dollar, because Republicans were paying higher rates before they made the shift to the Yuma County Republican Party.Republicans, projecting increased confidence in Lake’s eventual victory, reveled in the Democratic shirt-rending over Hobbs — a welcome diversion, perhaps, from their own internal squabbles.“In a state where problems with illegal immigration and the economy are top of mind, Democrats were always going to be at a disadvantage because voters don’t believe their party can adequately fix the issues,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the R.G.A. “What Democrats couldn’t plan for was Katie Hobbs’s self-immolation in front of a national audience.”What to readThe House panel investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol voted on Thursday to issue a subpoena to former President Trump, a move that will set off a fierce legal battle. Catch up with our live coverage of the day’s dramatic proceedings here.In state after state, Republicans are paying double, triple, quadruple and sometimes even 10 times more than Democrats are for television ads on the exact same programs, Shane Goldmacher reports.Senator Mike Lee of Utah, a Trump loyalist, has long antagonized Mitt Romney, the state’s other Republican senator. But now, as Lee finds himself in a surprisingly close race for re-election against Evan McMullin, an independent candidate, he’s pleading for Romney’s support. Jonathan Weisman explains.Michael Bender examines a peculiar phenomenon: how Republican candidates talk far more glowingly about Trump on rally stages than they do in televised debates.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      These Republicans Questioned the 2020 Election — and Most Are Still Doing It. Many Will Win.

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      Hundreds of Republican midterm candidates have questioned or spread misinformation about the 2020 election. Hundreds of Republican midterm candidates have questioned or spread misinformation about the 2020 election. Together they represent a growing consensus in the Republican Party, and a potential threat to American democracy. Together they represent a growing consensus in the Republican Party, […] More